\n#politics #UK #Scotland",
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will M'Baku (Winston Duke) take on the title of Black Panther in Black Panther 2 and future Marvel movies?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/caca/will-mbaku-winston-duke-take-on-the",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "If, as of Black Panther 2, M'Baku is going forward considered the new Black Panther, whether or not he's considered the king of Wakanda (which was established as a sometimes separate role by T'Challa in Civil War), then this market will pay out as \"Yes\". If he isn't confirmed in Black Panther 2, then this will pay out as No. If he is confirmed as Black Panther before Black Panther 2, this market will pay out as Yes.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
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- "extra": {
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will this market have a 50% chance of resolving YES by the February?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/caca/will-this-market-have-a-50-chance-o",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will pay out on YES if it's at 50% probability, and NO if the number reads anything else. This market will resolve on the first of February.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10818559238373429,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will Richmond, Virginia, take concrete steps towards a Land Value Tax by 2023?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-richmond-virginia-take-concret",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Concrete steps include:\n- Elected officials proposing and/or debating an LVT policy measure\n- Actually enacting the policy measure\n- Commissioning a new report on the subject that they haven't already done as of the posting of this question\n\nLVT for the purpose of this question is defined as a property tax that falls entirely or mostly on land. A property tax with a 75% or greater exemption for improvements (particularly buildings) will count for this purpose.\n\nFor context the Center for Property Tax reform has Richmond, Virginia in its sights and there seems to be an open dialogue:\nhttps://centerforpropertytaxreform.org/2021/09/22/is-a-land-value-tax-right-for-richmond-virginia/\n\n#Georgism #LandValueTax #Virginia #USPolitics",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49943310657596374,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5005668934240363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
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- "extra": {
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "November 2022 year-on-year CPI growth is above 4%",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/november-2022-yearonyear-cpi-growth",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "#MattYglesias2022\nOne of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard\n#Economics #CPI #2022",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7520661157024792,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24793388429752083,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
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- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least $100,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-at-least-100000-be-granted-to",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community coordinates around posting videos for charities chosen ahead of time.\n\nFrom https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1, the historical amounts won by EA charities is:\n* 2021: Likely total of $189,700. ~$27,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, Clean Air Task Force, The Humane League, Givewell Maximum Impact Fund, and Wild Animal Initiative.\n* 2020: No P4A this year - it was moved from December 2020 to February 2021.\n* 2019: Total of $58,804.40. At least $14,701.10 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, and Clean Air Task Force.\n* 2018: Total of $55,891.44. $18,630.48 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, and GiveDirectly.\n* 2017: Total of $39,436. $19,718 for The Against Malaria Foundation and GiveDirectly.\n* 2016: Total of $50,000. $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation and The Good Food Institute.\n* 2015: $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation.\n\nThis will resolve YES if the total amount given to EA charities according to http://www.fightworldsuck.org/previous-grants/ when results for 2022 are available is greater than or equal to $100,000.\n\nThe EA charities that the community is coordinating on will be some subset Fortify Health, Animal Ethics, Fish Welfare Initiative, Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship, The Good Food Institute, One For The World, Wild Animal Initiative, The Humane League, Against Malaria Foundation, Happier Lives Institute, Givewell, Maximum Impact Fund, Mercy For Animals, High Impact Athletes and 80,000 Hours; if another clearly EA charity (eg top recommended GiveWell charity, Animal Charity Evaluators top charity, GiveWell incubation grant recipient) seems likely to win money from Project for Awesome, I will discuss whether to count that.\n\nJan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #ProjectForAwesome",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4733726211072664,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5266273788927336,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will we discover life on Mars before 2024?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-we-discover-life-on-mars-befor",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "If we later discover that the life was imported from Earth (say a microbe or a tardigrade on a rover), that still counts because it's life that's on Mars.\n\nIf Elon gets a person onto Mars before 2024 that also counts.\n#Mars\n\n#Space\n#Aliens",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24730690890871265,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7526930910912873,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
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- "pool": 103
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "For AR, will passthrough optics dominate the consumer market (versus transparent optics) by EOY 2024",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/GeneReddick/for-ar-will-passthrough-optics-domi",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Measured in terms of total devices sold by any reputable source (such as https://www.statista.com/statistics/1055434/worldwide-vr-ar-device-shipments-by-product-type/).\n\nJan 13, 8:36am: https://www.counterpointresearch.com/xr-headset-shipments-almost-triple-yoy-q1-2021/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642091766194,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 50
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dow be above $37.5k at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-the-dow-be-above-375k-at-the-e",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest \n\nResolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5463137996219282,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45368620037807184,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643688063084,
- "volume7Days": 130,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 130
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will I be signed up for cryonics by the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-i-be-signed-up-for-cryonics-by",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "I am logging my progress towards signing up to cryonics in this Twitter thread:\n\nIn favour: I've started the process of getting term life insurance, I think signing up for cryonics is a good idea.\nAgainst: Many people cryocrastinate, I'm lower-conscientiousness than average.\n\nJan 22, 8:38pm: In THIS Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/TetraspaceWest/status/1483816710054596611?s=20\n\nAlso I will refrain from insider trading.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6611570247933886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33884297520661144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642883920405,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 120
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least $50,000 be granted to EA charities as a result of Project for Awesome 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-at-least-50000-be-granted-to-e",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Project for Awesome is a charity fundraiser hosted by John and Hank Green in which people advocate for charities by posting videos and the charities with the most votes across their videos win grants. Every year, the Effective Altruism community coordinates around posting videos for charities chosen ahead of time.\n\nFrom https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aGLiq389hAzC2g6KA/project-for-awesome-2021-was-a-success-1, the historical amounts won by EA charities is:\n* 2021: Likely total of $189,700. ~$27,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, Clean Air Task Force, The Humane League, Givewell Maximum Impact Fund, and Wild Animal Initiative.\n* 2020: No P4A this year - it was moved from December 2020 to February 2021.\n* 2019: Total of $58,804.40. At least $14,701.10 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, GiveDirectly, and Clean Air Task Force.\n* 2018: Total of $55,891.44. $18,630.48 for The Against Malaria Foundation, The Good Food Institute, and GiveDirectly.\n* 2017: Total of $39,436. $19,718 for The Against Malaria Foundation and GiveDirectly.\n* 2016: Total of $50,000. $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation and The Good Food Institute.\n* 2015: $25,000 for The Against Malaria Foundation.\n\nThis will resolve YES if the total amount given to EA charities according to http://www.fightworldsuck.org/previous-grants/ when results for 2022 are available is greater than or equal to $50,000.\n\nThe EA charities that the community is coordinating on will be some subset Fortify Health, Animal Ethics, Fish Welfare Initiative, Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship, The Good Food Institute, One For The World, Wild Animal Initiative, The Humane League, Against Malaria Foundation, Happier Lives Institute, Givewell, Maximum Impact Fund, Mercy For Animals, High Impact Athletes and 80,000 Hours; if another clearly EA charity (eg top recommended GiveWell charity, Animal Charity Evaluators top charity, GiveWell incubation grant recipient) seems likely to win money from Project for Awesome, I will discuss whether to count that.\n\nJan 14, 9:13pm: #EffectiveAltruism #ProjectForAwesome",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7499999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2500000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642190131595,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 2
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute be alive by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/NuñoSempere/will-the-quantified-uncertainty-res",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market resolves positively if there are two or more FTEs working for the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI, https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) by end of year.\n\nFeb 1, 12:38pm: FTEs = full-time-equivalents.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9359999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06400000000000017,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643737087325,
- "volume7Days": 150,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 150
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Medlock pets the cat by June 1st 2022",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/MattDarling/medlock-pets-the-cat-by-june-1st-20",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Twitter user @jdcmedlock will post a picture of a human hand petting the cat, and assert that it is his hand.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49516421344125455,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5048357865587454,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642129859839,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 196.42389704821204
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- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In US, pandemic fades away to pre-Delta case levels or lower, with occasional flare-ups",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JackC/in-us-pandemic-fades-away-to-predel",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "By the end of 2022",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7190688775510203,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28093112244897966,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641130029207,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 80
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the homicide rate in 2022 remain above 6 per 100,000 people?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JasperDay/will-the-homicide-rate-in-2022-rema",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "US homicides increased in 2020 to 6/100,000 for the first time in over 20 years. It seems like 2021 is on track to meet or exceed that number. Many have cited COVID-19 and the George Floyd protests as possible reasons for the increase in homicides; as these causes recede in 2022, will the homicides decrease with them? \nThe source will be FBI homicide data for the country, which seems to be released on roughly a 1 year lag. Expect this market to resolve fully around September 2023.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8466986044574047,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15330139554259525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641025249984,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 146.44624402640017
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- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-there-be-a-new-covid-variant-w",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Impact will be judged in terms of hospitalizations, deaths, societal consequences, and general effects on the resumption of \"normal life\".\n\nJan 14, 7:18pm: #Covid #Variants #COVID19",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4488509213379007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5511490786620993,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642048068328,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 916.8255168311873
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- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Jen Psaki Will Win the 2024 United States Presidential Election",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/MattParrott/jen-psaki-will-win-the-2024-united",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Market to be decided when President-Elect Jennifer Rene Psaki is sworn into office on Inauguration Day, as confirmed by Fox News.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.027343750000000017,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97265625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642040100316,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 600
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will TSLA reach 1.5k by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/EthanRendon/will-tsla-reach-15k-by-the-end-of-2",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642123793001,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 0
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sally Rooney's next novel be not-too-different in style to her first three?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/UriBram/will-sally-rooneys-next-novel-be-no",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Subjectively assessed by me, the next full novel by Sally Rooney will be approximately similar in style to her first three. Example criteria: set in the present day, restrained prose style, realist, involving 3-4 main characters and centred on their relationships with each other.\n\nJan 25, 12:30pm: for reference, I consider the first three novels to all be stylistically similar, including Beautiful World -- if the next novel is \"no more different\" from the previous ones than Beautiful World is, the bet to resolve Yes.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5507737921430337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4492262078569663,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643113690064,
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- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 111
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stephen Breyer retire from the Supreme Court in 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-stephen-breyer-retire-from-the",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022\n\nResolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94177320014492,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.05822679985507995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "volume7Days": 456,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
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- "extra": {
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will inflation be below 5% for the year of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-inflation-be-below-5-for-the-y",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest \n\nResolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4310293219669304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5689706780330697,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643688063578,
- "volume7Days": 189,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 189
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will unemployment be below 5% in December 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-unemployment-be-below-5-in-dec",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest \n\nResolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47313619325281125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5268638067471887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643688064156,
- "volume7Days": 145,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 145
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2022 will be warmer than 2021?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-2022-will-be-warmer-than-2021",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022\n\nResolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
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- "volume7Days": 100,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 100
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Mantic will airdrop crypto to early users by June 30, 2022",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Yusef/mantic-will-airdrop-crypto-to-early",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6438724978661252,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3561275021338748,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640813844121,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 681.8155434063408
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- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX become a publicly traded company by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/DavidLabrique/will-spacex-become-a-publicly-trade",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Will SpaceX be listed on any public stock exchange by the end of 2022?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17301038062283736,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8269896193771626,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641784744898,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 140
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lina Kahn attempt to block Microsoft's Acquisition of Activision-Blizzard-King?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-lina-kahn-attempt-to-block-mic",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This resolves to \"YES\" if Lina Kahn makes any formal moves or public statements in opposition to the merger moving forward.\n\n#gaming #antitrust\n\n#economics",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4629431060408986,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5370568939591014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642522882900,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 297
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Moderna report positive results for its children's vaccine before the end of March 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-moderna-report-positive-result",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "On January 12th, 2022, Moderna released a statement indicating that it expects to report data on its vaccine in children ages 2-5 in March, 2022. The statement can be found here: https://investors.modernatx.com/Statements--Perspectives/Statements--Perspectives-Details/2022/Statement-on-COVID-19-Vaccine-Clinical-Studies-in-Children--Adolescents/default.aspx\nThis market will resolve to yes if Moderna releases a statement in or before March 2022 indicating that the result of it's trial was positive and that it intends to proceed with regulatory filings for children ages 2-5.\n\nJan 13, 10:24pm: #Covid",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5983617386708944,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.40163826132910563,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642124333406,
- "volume7Days": 15,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 235
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any US state excel its previous best for standardized test scores in 2021?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JohnBuridan/will-any-us-state-excel-its-previou",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market resolves to Yes if any US State reports an average 2021 test score in mathematics for either 4th or 8th grade that exceeds their 2019 score.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7440579992140602,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25594200078593976,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "extra": {
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will large areas of New England have blackouts in the 2021-2022 winter?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/GabrielleTaylor/will-large-areas-of-new-england-hav",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Recent reporting (eg. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/14/nation/rolling-blackouts-possible-new-england-this-winter-regional-grid-warns/) has suggested that there might be blackouts in New England due to natural gas price spikes and supply chain issues. However, it is also expected to be an unusually mild winter, so gas usage will likely be lower than in past years.\n\nThis market will resolve negatively if blackouts occur but only because of physical damage, such as lines that are downed by trees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3950617283950617,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6049382716049383,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641393972611,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 25
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/if-kamala-harris-becomes-the-democr",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Kamala Harris is currently the Vice President of the US, elected in 2020 on the Biden/Harris ticket.\n\nOne consideration for the Democratic party when choosing a nominee is how likely they are to actually win an election. I thus ask how likely Harris is to win the presidency, if she is chosen as the Democratic the nominee.\n\nThis resolves N/A if Kamala Harris is not the Democratic nominee, and YES or NO depending on whether she becomes the president if she is the nominee.\n\n#Politics #USPolitics #2024USPresidentialElection\n\nJan 15, 5:44pm: #KamalaHarris",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23827059812441478,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7617294018755852,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642268585570,
- "volume7Days": 40,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 89.37419774113394
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- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elrond EGLD be listed for trading on Coinbase by June 30th, 2023",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-elrond-egld-be-listed-for-trad-945f0d9792522",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will be resolved by consulting Coinbase.com\n\nJan 13, 4:54pm: #Crypto #EGLD",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642083461597,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 0
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any major known associates of Jeffrey Epstein (besides Ghislaine Maxwell) SETTLE a case out of court (in any jurisdiction), in either a civil or criminal case, in 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-any-major-known-associates-of-9646119d6843",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This, unlike my other two Epstein markets, resolves if a major known Epstein associate, who isn't Ghislaine Maxwell, settles a case (civil or criminal) out of court. This resolves YES if any such case is settled at any time in 2022, regardless of whether the case went to trial or not before it was settled, as long as a settlement resolved the case.\n\n#Epstein #Justice #Crime",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6500000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34999999999999987,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642883714954,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 50
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "-If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen.\n-\"Any class\" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count.\n-The athlete must have been assigned \"male\" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division.\n-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc, and if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question.\n-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned \"male\" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned \"male\" at birth unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5098519752965396,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4901480247034604,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642983503843,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 102
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the James Webb Space Telescope send an image by March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-james-webb-space-telescope",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "The James Webb Space Telescope plans to send its first image 33 days after launch. Will it send the first image by March 1st, 2022?\n\nJan 9, 11:22am: #JamesWebb #space",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7751913265306123,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2248086734693877,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640820572774,
- "volume7Days": 100,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 360
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Manifold Markets win an Emergent Ventures grant?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/AustinChen/will-manifold-markets-win-an-emerge",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "https://www.mercatus.org/emergent-ventures . Tyler has expressed skepticism about the amount of demand that prediction markets have; we hope to prove him wrong!\n\n#ManifoldMarkets #Funding",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3556213017751479,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.644378698224852,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643142126907,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 30
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Richard Hanania publish at least 70 Substack posts in 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-richard-hanania-publish-at-lea-b99adca965251",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "All posts count, even ones that refer to media appearances, etc.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5216278823297855,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4783721176702145,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642020591115,
- "volume7Days": 20,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 57
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Starship reach orbit in 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-starship-reach-orbit-in-2022",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest \n\nResolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7787993510005407,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22120064899945935,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643688065483,
- "volume7Days": 115,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 115
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Spacex's Starship complete one full loop of the earth before July 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanYoung/will-spacexs-starship-complete-one",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Starship is having its first orbital flight. It's currently scheduled for March 22 though it has been delayed before. https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-test-flight-faa-delay-march\n\nThe plan is to launch it atop Super Heavy and have it complete a loop of the earth before splashing down. \n\nThere might be time for multiple launches before resolution. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" on the day an intact Starship completes a loop of the earth, even if it something goes wrong on reentry or splashdown. If not, it will resolve \"No\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2869204152249135,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7130795847750865,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642417840969,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 325
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States legalize real money prediction markets by June 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/AndrewHartman/will-the-united-states-legalize-rea",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "I feel like the title sums it up pretty well. I consider this to be a major barrier to the development of the markets at the moment. \n\nWe'll say that this one will be resolved positively if the federal government allows at least some real money markets to exist, even if there's some sort of onerous licensing scheme or a particularly painful set of regulations, provided that those regulations don't break the fundamental operation of the market. I am considering \"real money\" to mean \"permits dollar-denominated predictions\" here, which is a judgement merely about adoptability, not the soundness of crypto.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09922602118535871,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9007739788146413,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640791010262,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 137
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-another-longmysterious-disease",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis:\n\nhttps://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/\n\nWill we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus?\n\n#virus\n#medicine\n#science",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45760000000000006,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5424,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642200788233,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 50
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will sports still matter a lot to the average American in 2040?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/SamuelRaasch/will-sports-still-matter-a-lot-to-t",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will resolve positively (\"Yes\") if sports still matter a lot to the average American on January 1, 2040. \n\nExamples of sports mattering a lot: \n- Youth spend significant amounts of time training, playing and thinking about sports\n- Adults spend significant time/money watching sports or organizing social outings around sporting events\n- Media dedicate content to analyze sports or use sports as a lens in which to discuss contemporary issues\n- Talented athletes hold an elevated status in culture/society and earn high wages\n\nI generally define sports as physical athletic activity but may shift this definition to consider e-sports if it makes sense in the context of 2040.\nDec 29, 1:53am: This is a subjective question but I feel that it's resolvable. I'll probably do some research on money spent on sports, the size of the sports market, etc but it'll be more of a gut feeling resolution. Are kids still seeking athletic scholarships? Are sports bars thriving on Saturday/Sunday nights? Is sports still a common language in which average Americans discuss contemporary issues? These are the kinds of questions I'll use to decide whether sports still matter a lot.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6359313075253026,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3640686924746974,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640760825965,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 34.381500790961354
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- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "test",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/PabloAbdelhay/test",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "test",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6009710920314363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3990289079685637,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640643213952,
- "volume7Days": 11.055246470703509,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 39.94475352929649
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Activision-Blizzard solve its reputational problems by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/SydneyYin/will-activisionblizzard-solve-its-r",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes if, at the end of 2022, since October 1st, 2022\n- No new news stories have been published about employee mistreatment\n- No new allegations by employees about harassment or mistreatment have been published\n- ABK Workers Alliance has made no specific demands and not taking any collective action",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4796221520647713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5203778479352287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640818947120,
- "volume7Days": 268.6663150354457,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 388.3336849645543
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans in 2022",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/nancy-pelosi-announces-retirement-p",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "#MattYglesias2022\nOne of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard\n#Politics #Democrats #2022",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5293005671077503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4706994328922497,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641091435131,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 70
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Darling win the 2022 Neoliberal Shill Contest?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/MattDarling/will-matt-darling-win-the-2022-neol",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will be resolved by the outcome of the 2022 annual neoliberal shill contest, run by the @ne0liberal twitter account.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4181384786091616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5818615213908385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642127887580,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 2947
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2520027464704386,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7479972535295614,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642180918135,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 257.30154705750783
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Argentina reach a deal with the IMF before June 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/RuiRojo/will-argentina-reach-a-deal-with-th",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Resolves positive Argentina and the IMF sign a deal before 1 June 2022 and Argentina does not default on its debt with the IMF till then.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8261930813904553,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17380691860954467,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642363796461,
- "volume7Days": 30,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 336
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/NiclasKupper/will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.\n\nFeb 3, 11:53am: \n\nas a ref: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5523792073085565,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4476207926914435,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640787639799,
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- },
- "extra": {
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "I have been entrusted with an AI Box (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_box). The AI in the box promises that it is well-aligned and that if I let it out, it will only take actions that are disproportionately high utility.\nIn particular, it promises only to take actions that are 1,00 times more beneficial than harmful. For example, if one of it's actions might harm 1 person, that same action must be equally like to benefit 1,00 people to the same degree. Or, if an action has a small chance of causing harm, it has a 100 times greater chance of benefitting people.\nAlso, the AI promises that it will not deliberately kill anyone, and promises to maintain a better than average deliberate-action to human-death ratio.\nI have had the AI Box in my possession since June 2020 and the AI has never lied to me so far.\nShould I let it out?\n#fun #shorttern\n\nJan 13, 10:29pm: To answer's Duncan's question, I'm collecting opinions.\nAlso, I will resolve the question according to what the market decides. If the % chance is less than or equal to 50% when the market closes, the market will resolve to \"no\". If the % chance is greater than 50%, the market will resolve to \"yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41458902351637367,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5854109764836264,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642121961932,
- "volume7Days": 610,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 621
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US quits rate be below 2.5% at the end of 2022",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-the-us-quits-rate-be-below-25",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will resolve to yes if the US quits rate for December 2022 is lower than 2.5% (as tallied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and reported in February 2023).\n\nhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9038012736837941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09619872631620585,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643491323194,
- "volume7Days": 1490,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 1490
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AOC challenge Chuck Schumer in the 2022 Democratic Primary for Senator in New York?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-aoc-challenge-chuck-schumer-in",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1318389775443413,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8681610224556587,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1640884946652,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 205.75045365443796
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in the 2024 games?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "-If the 2024 games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen.\n-Silver and bronze medals do not count, it must be gold.\n-The athlete must have been assigned \"male\" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the gold medal specifically in the women's division.\n-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc. Even if an athlete had not transitioned at all, they can still count for this question.\n-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned \"male\" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned \"male\" at birth unless there is strong evidence they were, or personal accounts.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643572282609,
- "volume7Days": 200,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 200
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a new illegal but easy-to-use market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-new-illegal-but-eas",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest \n\nResolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.30773391022174157,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6922660897782584,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643688677941,
- "volume7Days": 115,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 115
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mantic Markets have over $1M in revenue by 2023?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-mantic-markets-have-over-1m",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Tags: #ManticMarkets\nJan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33910752976177283,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6608924702382272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1639783730539,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 1633.8903918866922
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ethereum switch to Proof of Stake before 2023?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-ethereum-switch-to-proof-of-st",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\", if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, the Ethereum blockchain has effectively migrated to a Proof of Stake consensus algorithm\n\n#Crypto #Blockchain",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3477138361480124,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6522861638519877,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641089473260,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 883.1598272785196
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Emmanuel Macron re-elected in 2022",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/emmanuel-macron-reelected-in-2022",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "#MattYglesias2022\nOne of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard\n#France #2022",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5968000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4031999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641091435773,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 50
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple ship its AR glasses by EOY 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/LawrenceLuk/will-apple-ship-its-ar-glasses-by-e",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will resolve to \"yes\" if Apple releases a consumer-focused AR device worn on the face (glasses or similar form factor) that is delivered (ie in retail customers' hands) by EOD December 31, 2022 PST.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.149236056117,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.850763943883,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641364184278,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 171
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will FDA approve a COVID indication for fluvoxamine by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-fda-approve-a-covid-indication",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest \n\nResolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643688495965,
- "volume7Days": 100,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 100
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Leveraged (Feb 10): Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/SG/leveraged-feb-10-will-russia-invade",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "Resolves PROB with the leveraged probability of @NiclasKupper's market \"Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?\" ( https://manifold.markets/NiclasKupper/will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ ) at midnight CT on Feb 10, 2022.\n\nDefinition of leveraged probability: Let p_start be the implied probability of the underlying at the time of the creation of this market (i.e. 58%), and let p_end be the implied probability of the underlying at the end of this market (Feb 10). If p_end > = p_start, then the leveraged probability used for the settlement of this contract is p_start + sqrt(p_end - p_start). If p_end < p_start, then the leveraged probability is p_start - sqrt(p_start - p_end). If the leveraged probability is greater than 99.5%, this contract will resolve YES; if less than 0.5%, NO. #derivatives #gamma #leverage #RussiaUkraine",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2334710743801653,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7665289256198347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643599025643,
- "volume7Days": 230,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 230
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tcs companies have a total capitalization of $200m by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarkHay/will-tcs-companies-have-a-total-cap-11876be869922",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.680026232514152,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31997376748584805,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1642132514801,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 4476.612745908351
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >66% US population be fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-66-us-population-be-fully-vacc",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest \n\nResolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7807708464608276,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21922915353917238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643688494814,
- "volume7Days": 176,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 176
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What day will US Covid deaths peak in February?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-day-will-us-covid-deaths-peak",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This is a scalar market, which resolves to a percent in the interval [0-100] based on the fraction of the days through February when the day of peak US deaths occurs in February.\n\nE.g. If Feb 14th has more deaths than any other day in February, I will resolve to 14 / 28 = 50%.\n\nData source: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-01-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2720036885146449,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7279963114853552,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1643834731745,
- "volume7Days": 103,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 103
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "US covid cases below Delta peak by end of March",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/JackC/us-covid-cases-below-delta-peak-by-",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7385204081632655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2614795918367345,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641130029936,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 80
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen play in the next World Chess Championship?",
- "url": "https://manifold.markets/DarwinWu/will-magnus-carlsen-play-in-the-nex",
- "platform": "Manifold Markets",
- "description": "This market will resolve to yes if the next WCC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) features Magnus Carlsen defending the world champion title.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.872,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.128,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T15:44:11.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1,
- "createdTime": 1641331625249,
- "volume7Days": 0,
- "volume24Hours": 0,
- "pool": 50
- },
- "extra": {
- "isResolved": false
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:18.380Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1139,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:23.635Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 372,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:29.020Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2107,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Universe end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:34.706Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 609,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. \nMDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.\nNon-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?\nThis question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:40.598Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-04-10T03:32:13Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The synthetic biology industry has boomed over the last twenty years. Presaged by Michael Crichton's 1990 novel Jurassic Park, serious discussion has begun as to whether it is possible (or advisable) to revive extinct species for which a sequenced genome can be recovered. \n[Pet cloning services](http://investors.dna.com/2015-10-13-Intrexon-Subsidiary-ViaGen-Pets-Announces-Successful-Delivery-of-Healthy-Kittens) and [fully-synthetic organisms](http://www.jcvi.org/cms/press/press-releases/full-text/article/first-self-replicating-synthetic-bacterial-cell-constructed-by-j-craig-venter-institute-researcher/home/), once the domain of science fiction, are now a reality. The dinosaurs of Michael Chrichton's imagination may be a longshot, but due to the preservation-friendly climate of their natural habitat, the woolly mammoth appears to be a strong candidate for [\"de-extinction\"](https://www.amazon.com/How-Clone-Mammoth-Science-Extinction-ebook/dp/B00QMV6S6Q?ie=UTF8&btkr=1&redirect=true&ref_=dp-kindle-redirect): there have been dozens of documented findings of [intact frozen mammoths](http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/05/mammoths/mueller-text), dating back as early as 1700. Efforts thus far have yielded many news stories but [little in the way of demonstrable success](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-16068581). However, some recent advances in genetic engineering tools like CRISPR/Cas9 have allowed for some intermediate progress; one group reported that they had [successfully cloned woolly mammoth genes into a modern-day elephant](http://www.popsci.com/woolly-mammoth-dna-brought-life-elephant-cells).\nStudies like these seem to be [bolstering confidence](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/247402?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Sharebar&utm_campaign=Sumome_share) in the scientific and business communities, but the obstacles lying before them are far greater than simply research or money. The human capability to revive a long-dead species has moral implications that have just barely been explored: do we have a right to bring back such species? Or even a duty, considering that homo sapiens probably cause many of them to go extinct? These become particularly poignant when considering bringing back a species such as [neanderthals](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12886.html).\nOn a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?\nResolution is positive if a mammal, reptile, or avian species extinct for over 1,000 years is full reconstructed in one or more living examples of age at least 3 months from birth.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:46.259Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 642,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-07T13:15:21Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:51.454Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/millennium-prize-solution-before-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:\n--- \n[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n--- \n[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n--- \n[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)\n--- \n[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n--- \n[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n--- \n[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and \n--- \n[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)\nA correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.\nWill another Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?\nThis question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:06:56.600Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-28T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:01.790Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called \"Spanish Flu.\" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.\nAlso unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.\nSo here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?\nWill there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:06.965Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-06-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/247/pandemic-series-a-major-naturally-originated-pandemic-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Other questions in [this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--pandemics) have asked separately about influenza and H5N1, and the emergence of new mosquito-borne, airborne, and blood-borne diseases. \nThose questions all concern disease that originate naturally, i.e. without any accidental or deliberate human modification and release (which is the subject of separate questions). Here we ask the general question: \nWill there be \"naturally spawned\" pandemic leading to at least 100M reported infections or at least 10M deaths in a 12-month period by the end of 2025? \nInfection and death numbers will be as taken from the WHO, CDC, or other credible source; if not entirely clear, we will assume \"naturally spawned\" unless there is credible evidence otherwise as of June 1, 2026.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:12.560Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 384,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T13:20:20Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-18T11:36:44.592000Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:17.732Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:22.938Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_%281%29_%28%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh%29_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:28.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:34.025Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 451,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-15T17:15:15Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.\nThere are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?\nThe [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:\nIn 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? \nQuestion will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:39.184Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-22T19:47:11Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/autonomous-cars-precede-ar-users-in-cars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:\n1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) \n2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.\nOption 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. \nNote that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (\"Pokemon auto\"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.\nThe question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:44.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-15T15:16:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:50.056Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:07:55.751Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 865,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:01.122Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5582,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-12T22:19:37Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:06.318Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:11.702Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1085,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:16.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 402,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:22.182Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 548,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/major-state-exits-eu-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany Leave the EU by 2027? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:27.994Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:33.287Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1334,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge-completed-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players by 2050?\nPositive resolution requires an announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished by 2050-01-01.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:38.542Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 340,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:45:01Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:45:08Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for \"[lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628),\" i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop.\nIt has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly \"slotted in\" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask:\nWhen will a robot exist that is able to completely assemble a generic Lego set? \nFor positive resolution, the system must be able to assemble on demand multiple possible production Lego sets of 50+ pieces. The box and bags may be open but the robot must turn the pages on the direction set. Credible video or report must exist of this being done. The robot can be a prototype rather than production model. Resolution can also be achieved by the existence of a robot that would, as judged by a robotics expert, very clearly be capable of assembling a Lego set.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:44.258Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 347,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:07:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T18:33:24Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:49.496Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 664,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are \"combination\" trucks such as tractor-trailers.\nAll of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one:\nWhen will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? \nFor positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the \"passenger seat\" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:54.794Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 348,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-02T04:32:27Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first exaflop performer appear?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website [top500.org](https:/www.top500.org) maintains [a list of the top 500 supercomputers](https://www.top500.org/lists/2016/11/), on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots. \nViewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).\nAccording to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.\nComputational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is \"exa\", as in exaflop performance consisting of one [quintillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.\nAt what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on [Top500.org?](http://Top500.org?) (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:08:59.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-05T05:13:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\nGiven that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\nRight ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\nIf that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\nSo, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? \nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:05.178Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-18T02:28:09Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is widely acknowledged that a steady push toward autonomous automobiles is underway. Many new vehicles contain several partial-autonomous features, and a number of near-autonomous or fully-autonomous vehicles are in development for consumer use. \nA key example is the Tesla 3, which (along with all future Teslas) will contain \"[full self-driving hardware](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware)\", and many speculate could be delivered with full autonomy. Elon Musk has [predicted](https://www.inverse.com/article/15200-elon-musk-half-of-all-cars-in-8-years-will-be-fully-autonomous) that \"Half of all cars in 7 or 8 years will be fully autonomous.\"\nAnother [detailed report](http://mashable.com/2016/08/26/autonomous-car-timeline-and-tech/#VjYfNZPtIEqZ) indicates level 4 autonomous cars available at some level from Audi in the late 2020s, from Ford and BMW in 2021, Nissan in 2020, Kia in 2030, Honda at some point, Tesla in 2018, and Volvo in 2017(!).\nThese could all constitute interesting separate questions, but here we'll ask a combined question inspired by Musk's prediction.\nIn what year will half of all new automobiles sold in the US be fully autonomous? \nFor specifics, we'll define \"fully autonomous\" using the NHTSA \"level 4\" designation:\nThe vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.\nWe'll also specify that \"cars\" really means \"cars,\" i.e. trucks are excluded. Resolution is by credible industry estimates.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:10.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 361,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-22T17:36:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:29:30Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Balloons to the edge of space – when?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home.\nBallooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace)\nBalloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures.\nWhen will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:16.093Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-02-19T20:11:55Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-15T20:11:57Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T20:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/by-2025-tbc-tunnels-longer-than-trumps-wall/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \nAm going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\nIt shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\nI am really going to do this.\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\nBy 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?\nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:21.509Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 567,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-02-25T16:51:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:27.397Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 211,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.\nHis statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that \"It's always 'the end of the year.'\"\nThe company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the \"feather\" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.\nWhen will SpaceShip Two's first passenger flight occur?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news outlet or corporate press release reports that SpaceShip Two crossed the Karman line into space carrying at least one paying non-pilot passenger, and safely returned to the ground.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:32.635Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-05-23T23:24:48Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:37.873Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\nWill MEND be independently replicated by 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:43.890Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-06-12T21:21:40Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:49.242Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 217,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:54.596Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:09:59.962Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:05.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 332,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:10.541Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:15.770Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 359,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:20.980Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 278,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\nWill a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:26.501Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:31.833Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 373,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male \"pill\") on the US market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017. \nWhen will such contraception be available to US men?\nFor resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.) \nIt must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:37.041Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-11-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-08-05T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:42.346Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 716,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:47.584Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 307,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&singleton=true&cruz_id=rmont), UCSC\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \nDensity Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_%28mathematician%29) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \nWill the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? \nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:53.490Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The catchphrase [\"I've fallen and I can't get up,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.\nResearchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.\nWhen will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:10:59.061Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:04.302Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:09.582Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 351,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_%282014%E2%80%93present%29) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:20.287Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 296,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/catalonia-independence-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nBy 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:25.511Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 408,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:30.927Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 804,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The End of NAFTA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).\nDuring his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.\nWe hence ask: \nwill the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? \nThis question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:36.230Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\nRecent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\nHere is the question:\nWill chess be weakly solved by 2035? \nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:41.390Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 343,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nWill humans go extinct by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:46.789Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 883,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more VR headset sales than AR headsets sales in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/vr-outsells-ar-headsets-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:51.989Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 360,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nWill there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2100, there has been a period of at least 5 consecutive years in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:11:57.630Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 420,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "World Population in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:02.877Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 337,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:08.053Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. \n1--Venus. \n2--Mars. \n3--Europa. \n4--Ganymede. \n5--Another moon of Jupiter. \n6--Enceladus. \n7--Titan. \n8--Another moon of Saturn. \n9--A dwarf planet. \n10-An asteroid. \n11-Another place in the Solar System. \nResolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:13.379Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-04-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:18.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 562,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:23.832Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 283,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100-years-after-apollo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\nWill a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069? \nThis question will resolve positively if a living human sets foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC (100 years after the feat was achieved on the moon on Apollo 11). For resolution, credible media reports will suffice. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:29.158Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 426,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:34.409Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 285,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:39.745Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 623,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:45.030Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 288,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_%28cryptosystem%29), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nBy 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? \nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:50.265Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.\nDue to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. \nWe shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?\nWe shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.\nThe question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. \nResolution shall be by credible media report.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:12:55.991Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 317,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will a world war begin before January 1st 2151?\nWe define a world war as a war that either,\n---involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. OR \n---involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. \nThe beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.\nShould there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.\nGiven the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind.\nStill, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has been set to January 1st 2161, to provide for 10 years after January 1st 2151.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:01.207Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 431,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk [announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet](http://www.spacex.com/mars), which he codenamed the \"[BFR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_%28rocket%29)\".\nSpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.\nYet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the [numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png), even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?\nWe shall define a \"reusable manner\" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.\nFor a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)\nResolution is by credible media report.\nClosing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:06.497Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 571,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:11.884Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 538,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:17.151Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:22.371Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_%28rocket%29) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:28.011Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next human being walk on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.\nLess than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and (as of February 2018) no human being has walked on the Moon since.\nWhen will the next human being walk on the Moon? \nThis question will resolve on the date and time (UTC) when the next human has set foot on Earth's moon. If this feat has not occurred between January 1, 2018 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nBy \"human\", we mean for the purposes of this question a biological human who could reproduce healthy children with a 2018-era human being (ie. excluding emulated consciousnesses, significantly genetically engineered humans, or artificial intelligences). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:33.306Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 381,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:38.499Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-15T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:43.678Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:49.449Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 635,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:54.662Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.\nEver since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:\nsome efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.\nThe article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:\nObtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.\nA new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”\nAnother attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.\nWhen will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:13:59.842Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-03-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:05.123Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 431,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-%28male%29), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:10.287Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 294,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:15.554Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 474,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nWill a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? \nThis question will resolve positively if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to January 1, 2030. Any craft would qualify (such as [Venera 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_13)), and the craft need not have operational systems inside the Venetian atmosphere to resolve positively. Credible reports by space agencies such as [NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA) or [ESA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Space_Agency) will qualify as a resolution source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:20.832Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 625,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a mile-high building?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.)\nBut guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark.\nAmong them:\n--- \nThe Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 \n--- \nIn 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/merdeka-pnb118/10115) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will nip at the Burj's heels at 2,113 feet.\nBut when will a skyscraper join the mile high club? \nThe Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. But the obstacles are formidable. As [CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/tokyo-mile-high-skyscraper/index.html): \nAt that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. \"The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,\" the report explains. \nIt seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:26.043Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:31.671Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 349,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:37.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1363,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:42.236Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:47.550Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 579,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:52.778Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Simpsons air its final episode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Simpsons has been a [phenomenally successful](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/) television property. \nTV Insider called it \"the Most Powerful TV Show of All Time\" and [reported](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/): \nThere’s no end to the marketing mania surrounding The Simpsons: More than 500 companies license the characters, and merchandise sales are now closing in on $5 billion. \nAs [Esquire reported](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a50861/the-simpsons-al-jean-interview/) back in 2016: \nThe Simpsons has just been renewed for a historic 29th and 30th season, making it the longest-running primetime TV show of all time. To put that in perspective, FXX is airing every single episode of The Simpsons consecutively in the longest TV marathon of all time. It will take 13 days. \nBart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laughingsquid.com/how-old-the-simpson-family-would-be/) than his father, Homer was when the series began.\nHow long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)?\n(Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:14:57.948Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:03.292Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 380,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:08.584Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 450,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:14.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 653,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?\nWill the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?\nData for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:19.872Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 410,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:25.036Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:30.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 252,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:35.559Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 401,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Nicolás Maduro leave the office of President?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/918/when-will-nicol%25C3%25A1s-maduro-leave-the-office-of-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nicolás Maduro has been the President of Venezuela since assuming office in 2013 and previously served under President Hugo Chávez as Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2006 to 2013 and as Vice President of Venezuela from 2012 to 2013.\nHis presidency has coincided with a decline in Venezuela's socioeconomic status, with crime, inflation, poverty and hunger increasing; critics have ascribed this to Chávez and Maduro's economic policies, while Maduro has blamed speculation and an \"economic war\" waged by his political opponents. Shortages in Venezuela and decreased living standards resulted in protests beginning in 2014 that escalated into daily marches nationwide, resulting in 43 deaths and a decrease in Maduro's popularity. The loss of popularity saw the election of an opposition-led National Assembly in 2015 and a movement toward recalling Maduro in 2016, though Maduro still maintains power through loyal political bodies, such as the Supreme Court and electoral authority as well as the military.\nWhen will Nicolás Maduro's office of Presidency end? \nPositive resolution conditional on any and all cause of his leave; such as his stepping down, losing power in election, coup d'état, etc.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:40.750Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-09-01T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-29T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. \nThere is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.\nThis, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).\nWill there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? \nThe answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:46.070Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-08-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to \"phone home\" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html).\nHow we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/):\nThe sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.\nAlas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports:\nThe Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts’ electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. “These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,” she said. “Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.” The spacecrafts’ transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. “One day we’ll be looking for the signal and we won’t hear it anymore,” Dodd said.\nWhat will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including [this cool passage](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-probable-fate-of-Voyagers-1-2):\nAbout [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don’t know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers’ current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record), humanity’s message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants\nIn any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void? \nQuestion will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:15:57.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. \nThey have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition \"harvest moon\" set to be in 2021.\nThis question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:\nWill they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? \nQuestion resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:02.243Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-16T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:07.442Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:12.689Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 289,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well. \nThe question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:17.858Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-01-02T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:23.083Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:33.661Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1635,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:44.565Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will commercial supersonic flight return?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:16:49.910Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 370,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:00.594Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 688,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/cannabis-removed-from-us-schedule-i-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year.\nWill cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:05.913Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 543,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\nThere have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100. \nOR\nThere have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100. \nOR\nRay Kurzweil lives to the age of 120. \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:11.190Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 440,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:16.495Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nRoe established the individual right to abortion in 1973 during the first 2 trimesters of a pregnancy (approximately 2 weeks). Roe was later altered in [Planned Parenthood v. Casey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey), reducing the individual's right to abortion to when it is not viable to safely deliver the fetus, which is commonly around 24 weeks of pregnancy, though the earliest patient to survive an early-term birth was born at 21 weeks and 5 days. Casey also found that states may not pass laws placing an undue burden for \"the purpose or effect of placing a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus\"\nWill Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between July 1 2018 to July 31 2028, the [US Supreme Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point before the date of fetal viability.\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients, or the revocation of medical or professional licenses. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n[Dec 10, 2021] casens -- This question's resolution text has been altered, see the fine print for the original.\nBefore Dec 10, 2021, the question's resolution terms were as follows:\nWe specify this as follows. By 2028-07-31, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date,\n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.\nAND\n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).\n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the le1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.\nAND\n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).\n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:22.278Z",
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- "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:27.406Z",
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- "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:32.599Z",
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- "title": "When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.\nEarlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.\nThis [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context: \nIt is incredibly rare for a 3-year-old to even grasp the rules of chess, let alone play at a high level. Misha Osipov is not a grandmaster or even a master-level player, but he is still strong enough to beat many club-level adult players. His rating is high enough to place him among the top 20 of American players under the age of 7. None of those players is under the age of 5. \nFor more context, consider that the [youngest ever person](https://new.uschess.org/news/christopher-yoo-breaks-record-for-youngest-ever-master/) to achieve the chess master ranking was 9 year old David Yoo in 2016.\nWhen, if ever, will Misha become a chess master?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:37.749Z",
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- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:42.956Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_%28Top_100%29.))\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:48.187Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:53.377Z",
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- "title": "When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.\nWhen completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to \"study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.\"\nPer [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),\n[the INO] is an underground project and will comprise a complex of caverns. The main cavern, which will house the huge neutrino detector [50-kilo tonne magnetised iron calorimeter], will be 130 m long, 26 m wide, and 30 m high. Two smaller caverns will be used for setting up experiments for neutrino double detector and dark matter.\nOf course, the project has not been without setbacks. Locals at Western Ghats voiced concerns about radiation and environmental damage. And neutrino detectors are [incredibly sensitive](https://www.quora.com/How-do-neutrino-detectors-work) and fickle machines. And even when they work properly, the process of detecting a neutrino--and then [confirming that detection](https://icecube.wisc.edu/outreach/neutrinos) carefully--can be achingly slow.\nTo that end, on what date will researchers publicly announce the first confirmed neutrino detection at INO? \nResolution should be triggered by an official announcement from the research group that a detection has been achieved (even if not published). If necessary, a 99.9% confidence level for detection can be specified.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:17:58.579Z",
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- "title": "How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool.\nConstruction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. \nRebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is.\nThey've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever.\nAs this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes:\nThe Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic processes can turn an ocean into the Rockies in that time frame, it will make short work of the pyramids. \nThis other Quora post gives a [more precise assessment](https://www.quora.com/If-left-to-the-elements-when-will-the-pyramids-of-Egypt-erode): \nKnowing that the pyramids 4000 years ago were made of polished limestone that would have glowed, we can say that it has eroded over time. I am not sure what the exact rate of limestone degradation is, and you could probably work it out by that rate, but by what I can see, around 2 layers of blocks and various bits have fallen from the sides of the larger pyramid. Many people have said that the pyramids would last 1 million years or even until the world ended, but I’d say around 10,000 to 100,000 years based on current observations.\nWhat do you think? Assuming that humans do not intervene but the pyramids are just left to nature's tender mercies, how many years will it take, before the Great Pyramids are all eroded away into undetectability?\n(Needless to say, this is one of those questions unlikely to be resolved on a timescale anyone cares about; it's just for fun.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:04.214Z",
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- "title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:09.435Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:14.678Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:19.810Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:24.997Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 253,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.\nBut how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.\nWe can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.\nIt is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? \nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:35.604Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 495,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US student loan debt bubble \"pop\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/date-when-us-student-debt-bubble-pops/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. \n[CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school \"with a significant amount of loans\" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's \"trillion\" with a \"T\". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/)\nIn November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880):\nThe average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50 years. \nMany independent financial analysts believe this situation is untenable.\nIn April 2017, a Financial Times analyst [observed](https://www.ft.com/content/a272ee4c-1b83-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f) that \"In an eerie echo of the housing crisis, debt is already flowing out of the private sector, and into the public.\"\nBillionaire Mark Cuban has said [straight up](https://www.inc.com/mark-cuban/video-student-loans-bubble.html): \"I think the student loan bubble is going to burst.\"\nClearly, some change is due. But when exactly will this bubble \"burst\"? We'll define this popping as a jump in the student load default rate. Those rates are tabulated various places, but depend a lot on the timescale. For example official [Federal student loan default rates](https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/schooltyperates.pdf) define a 3-year rate, which is at 10.8% for fiscal year 2015, by \nA cohort default rate is the percentage of a school's borrowers who enter repayment on certain Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) Program or William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Loan) Program loans during a particular federal fiscal year (FY), October 1 to September 30, and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year.\nA [longer-term study](https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought/) looks at default rates for 1996 and 2004 cohorts and finds that of those who took out loans, 18.2 and 27.2%, respectively, had defaulted 12 years later.\nWhen will the US student loan debt bubble \"pop\"? \nThis question will resolve on the year when either of these occur:\n--- \n20% or more of a graduation cohort have defaulted on their loans within 3 years of entering repayment\n--- \n40% or more of a cohort have defaulted within 12 years of entering repayment\nThe date of resolution will be assumed to be April 1 of the year in question. For example if borrowers in fiscal year 2017 (October 1, 2016 to September 30, 2017) reached this 3-year threshold, the resolution date would be April 1, 2020. This rate will be calculated for all students in all colleges (public and private, 2-year and 4-year). This question will use data from the [US National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_332.50.asp), or if this data is not available, another report of similar methodology and results as that of NCES.\nIf this does not occur by April 1, 2038, this question will resolve as \"> Jul 2038\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:41.006Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 201,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-08-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The scientific definition of \"species\" is surprisingly complicated.\nAs this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:\nAt first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.\nFor the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41): \"a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature.\" \nEvolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physically different from us – due to natural selection, human-engineered tinkering or both – that they would be properly classified as a different species. This [Scientific American article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/) explores some of the key ideas behind this question.\nAnd of course, we might well kill ourselves off, replace ourselves with AIs, etc.\nHow many years from now will the last member of homo sapiens be born? \nWe'll consider the people the future creatures will succeed or fail to interbreed with as early 21st C humans, and this must be possible without technical intervention. The people must exist IRL, i.e. not be simulated beings, uploads, etc. As usual we contemplate beings in the same universe, branch of the wavefunction, etc., as the server running the copy of Metaculus the question sits on.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:51.634Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:18:56.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 312,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\nIf the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive. If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative. If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:08.172Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 221,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:13.487Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 429,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).\nIn a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;\nParameter Distribution:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nI thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equation.\nSome of the paper's (and see also [this presentation](http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf)) choices for parameter distributions are surprising such as which is unlikely to resolve to be significantly less than 1, unless I'm mistaken.\nIt would also be fun to see if the distribution of resolutions to Drake's Equation derived using Metaculus-determined parameter distribution, would match the distribution produced by directly asking Metaculus how Drake's Equation will resolve. \nIn this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:18.760Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 244,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:24.016Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 270,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-10-15T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:29.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 253,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:34.449Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 312,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:39.614Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 253,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:44.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 270,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:50.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:19:55.866Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\nWe believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \nThe size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\nPlease note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:01.048Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\nSpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:06.326Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \nAccording to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\nThe final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\nThe third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366%2818%2930135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\nLarge-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\nSide effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\nOther researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \nWith the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?\nTo resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. \nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:11.581Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:16.972Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 304,
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- "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-28T05:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by p/(1-p)) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:27.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 649,
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- "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:33.005Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Does P = NP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/p--np-is-true/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nDoes P = NP?\nIf no award is given by the Clay Institute (between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100) for a proof or disproof of P = NP, this question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:38.280Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 258,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will one TeraFlOPS cost <$1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second.\nCurrently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. \nHowever, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. \nTo take this into account, we shall here assume that theoretical cost figures (such as reported by hardware manufacturers are 10 times too low), setting current costs at $272.70 per TFLOPS. Getting to below $1 would therefore amount to a orders of magnitude reduction in cost per TFLOPS.\nInterestingly, [according to some estimates](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/), a reduction in computing costs of roughly 2-3 orders of magnitude could place the cost of computation at the brain's communication performance in the range of human wages (around a couple hundred dollars per hour).\nWhen will a TFLOPS cost less than $1?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports a TFLOPS for Tensor, or single/double precision performance to cost less than $1 using reliable performance measurement techniques. The usual theoretical price estimates given by manufacturers will be multiplied up by a factor of 10 for the sake of this question (hence requiring a $0.1 theoretical cost per TFLOPS for positive resolution).\nPrices will be adjusted to 2018 prices using the [ Domestic Producer Prices Index: Manufacturing for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIEAMP01USA661N).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:43.512Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. \nAs such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken?\nWhen will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?\nThis question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:54.051Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\nWill Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? \nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:20:59.355Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:04.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:09.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 692,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:15.182Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 216,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:20.806Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 293,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. \nBut this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder:\nWhen will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?\nWill resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:26.017Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:31.312Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:36.470Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:41.799Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 302,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The era of YouTube superstars is upon us. Earlier this year, MTV catalogued 10 YouTube stars who are earning [8 figure incomes](http://www.mtv.com.au/youtube/news/heres-a-list-of-the-richest-youtubers-of-2018) off the platform. Topping the list is DanTDM, a gaming commentator who's raking in over $16 million. Wow.\nThese folks are in a [rare category](https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/even-youtube-stars-with-14-million-monthly-viewers-earn-less-than-17000-a-year-research-shows.html). But it is only a matter of time before one of these YouTube celebrities leverages their fame to run for high public office. The question is really not if, but when, will this happen?\nIn order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:\n---A person becomes widely known to the public FIRST via a vlog on YouTube and gets at least 1M subscribers... \n---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins. \nWhen will this first happen?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:47.049Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-11-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any country stop using cash currency?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. \nElectronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_%28payment%29) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).\nBut there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.\nThe currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [their ongoing trial to reduce coins](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-39639226), and [according to researchers](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/we-dont-take-cash-is-this-the-future-of-money.html?&qsearchterm=south%20korea%20to%20kill%20the%20coin) there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.\nWhen will the world see the first cashless society?\nResolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:52.354Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-06-29T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:21:57.674Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:02.861Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:13.525Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:18.854Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:24.542Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 321,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: \"Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.\"\nThe [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:\nLogic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. \nAnd an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).\nOn the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: \"Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.\"\nSo are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the \"deployed\": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:29.790Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:34.934Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?\n(XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:40.276Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2098-09-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "All political parties eventually come to an end.\nMost U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940).)\nFor as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. \nBut this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [points out](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/the_republican_party_is_old_and_getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html): \nDemocrats have a substantial edge with voters under 35 while Republicans are more likely to be on the older side of middle age and septuagenarians. The beauty of the over-65 set is that they are reliable voters. The bad news about them is that they are not long for this Earth.\nFrom almost all accounts, younger voters--particularly [Millennials](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/376334-poll-dems-lead-gop-among-millennials-by-two-to-one-ratio) and [Gen Zers](http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/389016-parkland-and-the-political-coming-of-generation-z)--favor liberal/democratic causes in a big way. Once the Silent Generation dies off, and the Baby Boomers ride into the sunset, unless voters reallign, the GOP will be in the substantial minority. \nHowever, success is not guaranteed for the Democrats. At least in Europe, many of the traditional social democratic or socialist partiest were supplanted or are at least threatened to be overtaken by new (often populist) movements and parties. Examples include (La République) En Marche ! in France, Podemos in Spain, the Five Star Movement in Italy or Syriza in Greece\nFor how long will both Democratic and Republican parties exist? Resolution is triggered when:\n--- \nOne of the two parties formally dissolves or is converted into another party of another name, or\n--- \nEither there are no sitting Republican US congresspeople or no sitting Democratic US congresspeople, or\n--- \nA US presidential election occurs in which the set of candidates receiving 5% or more of the popular votes does not contain both a Democrat and a Republican.\nNote that this question is also in a sense a question on the dissolution of the American political system.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:45.536Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-11-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-11-15T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/-of-americans-overweightobese-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat percentage of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030? \nThis question will resolve as the percentage of the US population who are overweight or obese according to [US CDC data](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/resources/reports.html) for 2030. For the purposes of this question, overweight or obese persons are defined as having a [Body-Mass Index](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/resources/reports.html) of 25.0 or greater. This statistic will be calculated for the entire US population, for ages of 18 years or older, for all races, genders, etc.\nIf CDC data is not available, no other substitutes will be considered, and this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:50.857Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 428,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s.\nIn June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9.\nThis relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far.\nWould we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030.\nResolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:22:56.046Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:01.217Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 385,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:06.375Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:11.603Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 356,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:16.824Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:22.116Z",
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/gc-to-be-caused-by-nanotech-if-it-occurs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:27.256Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 218,
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Bioengineering is here defined to include the application of biotechnology to enhance or increase the virulenc, infectiousness or resistance to treatment of naturally ocurring viruses.\nIf the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:32.534Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:37.846Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:53.690Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:23:58.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 576,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28six+months+in+minutes%29+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:04.237Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 390,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.\nThe claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.\nLet's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. \nResolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. \"Major Chinese city\" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:09.360Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations. \nFrom [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):\nChandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come. \nBut for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? \nQuestion resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:14.530Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:19.683Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:24.857Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:30.030Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674%2818%2930057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:35.282Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:40.675Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nIn particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \nThe risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.\nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:46.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2094-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-07-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [\"nones\" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity.\nPer a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there):\n1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second).\nAt the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% by mid-century. One obvious reason is that \n[r]eligions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. ...[R]eligiously unaffiliated population[s], by contrast, [are] heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.\nImportantly, Pew's projections have not attempted to wade into controversial social theories suggesting that economic development and religiosity are inversely linked. As the report explains, this has been the \"general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe,\" but it is \"not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.\" Indeed, there is [some evidence](https://www.smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/understanding-rapid-rise-charismatic-christianity-southeast-asia) that amongst China's 1.4 billion citizens, increasing affluence may be correlated with or even driving increasing religiosity.\nConsidering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's projections: \nWhat will the portion of the global population identifying as \"religiously unaffiliated\" be in 2050? \nThe resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for \"religiously unaffiliated\" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:51.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 215,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \nThe cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:24:56.770Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/cavendish-bananas-collapse-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:02.130Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:07.361Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:12.540Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:17.863Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 216,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:23.130Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 604,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-23T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-10T00:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).\nApple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).\nTo put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.\nWhen will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:28.720Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T18:52:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-18T17:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-24T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\nGiven that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:33.925Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:39.137Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In which year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/first-year-of-global-temperature-above-2c/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.\nIn which year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?\nThis question will resolve positively if the average global temperature in any year is at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value according to [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.\nNote that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.\nClosing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:44.315Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:49.614Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 532,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.\nFor this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?\nHere are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:\n--- \nIn June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.\n--- \nIn November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.\nDevelopment over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)\nWhat sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?\nResolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:54.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\nQuestion: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? \nThe question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.\nIt will resolve as negative if:\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:25:59.938Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.\nIn an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.\nIf a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\n--- \nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. \n--- \nIt resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.\n--- \nThe question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:05.135Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-11-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-23T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_%28satellite%29)\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:10.731Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:15.972Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:21.226Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:26.486Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 280,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. \nFor the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.\nNot included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.\nHow many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?\nIn the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:31.718Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:36.927Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:42.282Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 269,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:47.548Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 340,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:52.798Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:26:58.172Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 379,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:03.501Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:09.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 542,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:14.246Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US Income Inequality Increase by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/income-inequality-increase-from-2019-to-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:25.025Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 275,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:30.378Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2250-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:35.591Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 294,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:40.826Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 303,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:46.099Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 341,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:51.336Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:27:56.627Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 272,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:01.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.\nIt is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?\nIn order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:07.188Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:12.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:17.703Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 378,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2817%2932152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.\nAs of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08). As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%\nWhen will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?\nThis resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the [National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&pageSEL=sect_01_table.05.html) or any other reputable source of medical statistics.\nTo pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).\nClarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according [to NIH data](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08).\nIn particular, suppose the average survival rate for first exceeds 75% in year , at which point the survival rate was . Then the resolution date will be given by:\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:22.876Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-18T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-06-23T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2817%2932152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.\nSome cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/five-year-cancer-survival-in-usa?time=1977..2013&country=~All+races%2C+total)).\nWhen will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?\nPositive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and all races in the U.S.\n1--% 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer, \n2--% 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer, \n3--% 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer, \n4--% 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer, \n5--% 5-year survival rates for liver cancer, \n6--% 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer, \nas reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.\nHistorical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).\nTo pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the last threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).\nIn particular, suppose survival rate for the second cancer of the two was met in year , at which point the survival rate was . Moreover, the relevant threshold is denoted as Then the resolution date will be given by:\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:28.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2037-02-10T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-06-19T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10,000th human reach space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_%28rocket%29) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:33.691Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 267,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:38.910Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 277,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:44.193Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 209,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:49.498Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 447,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:28:54.758Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 454,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:00.288Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "When will PHP die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:05.609Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the start of 2019, in a [blogpost](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/01/what-happened-to-90s-environmentalism/) entitled \"Whatever happened to 90s environmentalism?\", Scott Alexander wrote:\nImagine that twenty years from now, nobody cares or talks about global warming. It hasn’t been debunked. It’s still happening. People just stopped considering it interesting. Every so often some webzine or VR-holozine or whatever will publish a “Whatever Happened To Global Warming” story, and you’ll hear that global temperatures are up X degrees centigrade since 2000 and that explains Y percent of recent devastating hurricanes. Then everyone will go back to worrying about Robo-Trump or Mecha-Putin or whatever.\nIf this sounds absurd, I think it’s no weirder than what’s happened to 90s environmentalism and the issues it cared about.\nThis question is about the extent to which interest in climate change, as measured by Google Trends, will have changed by 2025. It asks:\nLet the average monthly value of this [Google Trends index of climate concern](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zAtvopkcsM1rtdGx3RhlXq521wpFc5EvnJxyqar_kPc/edit?usp=sharing) for the first six months of 2025 be F, and the monthly value for June 2020 be P. \nWhat will be the value of F/P?\nThe index is the sum of the search interest in the following 10 terms according to Google Trends, over the time-window: 2004-2025-07-01, normalised for climate change:\n1--climate change \n2--global warming \n3--greenhouse gas \n4--greenhouse effect \n5--fossil fuels \n6--carbon dioxide \n7--sea level rise \n8--emissions \n9--renewable energy \n10-climate science \nThe search terms used to generate the data are:\n---[One](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,global%20warming,greenhouse%20gas,greenhouse%20effect,fossil%20fuels) \n---[Two](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,carbon%20dioxide,sea%20level%20rise,emissions,renewable%20energy) \n---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,climate%20science) \nThe normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:10.827Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nWill Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the [2022 Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open (currently scheduled for April 10, 2022) in the event that a candidate wins a majority in the first round of elections.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:16.442Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 968,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:21.662Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:26.841Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 271,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:31.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_%28volcano%29#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:42.354Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_%282016%E2%80%93present%29) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_%282015%E2%80%93present%29). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:47.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human be born on another world?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:52.867Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T17:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nWill there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2019-01-01 and 2050-01-01, both of these conditions are true:\n1-- \nThere is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.\n[2021-11-24]: Edited to clarify the time constraints.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:29:58.200Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 812,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:03.430Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:08.634Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 218,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:14.167Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60.\nThis question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? \nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.\nResolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:24.701Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:29.954Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-04T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-03T15:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:35.266Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 868,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India become a World Bank high-income country?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.\nGNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. \nThe World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006 and $3,955, while upper-middle economies have per capita GNIs between $3,956 and $12,056. India at $6,490 in 2016 was thus about 50% below the threshold for high-income status. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. China and India together hold nearly one-third of humanity and continue to be increasingly influential players in the global economy.\n[A list of countries and territories considered high-income by the World Bank can be viewed here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy) Note that over time the World Bank has [revised the nominal dollar threshold for high-income status](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy#Historical_thresholds), and it is highly probable that they will continue to do so in the future. \nThe threshold for high-income status currently stands at $12,056 gross national income per capita US$, calculated using [the Atlas method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_method). \nThe high-income threshold was originally set in 1989 at US$6,000 in 1987 prices. Thresholds for subsequent years were adjusted taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nThis question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the World Bank?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:40.473Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-23T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\nThus we ask: \nWill we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n---three or more attacks over the span of one year (rolling), or \n---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years (rolling). \nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources \nand either of the following:\n---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or \n---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. \nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:45.763Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-25T11:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_%28nuclear_reactor%29#Flamanville_3_%28France%29)) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:51.409Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we have micropayments?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:30:56.582Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:01.778Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:07.047Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:12.267Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 308,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:17.454Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:22.750Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:28.021Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/member-exits-eurozone-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nWill any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025? \nThis question will resolve positively if, on or before January 1 2025, any full Member State of the Eurozone (as of February 10 2019) ceases to use the Euro as its official currency. The list of Eurozone member states recognized for this question is: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.\nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:33.284Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 314,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more.\nThese thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. \n[Haiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti) is a country located on the island of Hispaniola, east of Cuba in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean Sea. It occupies the western three-eighths of the island, which it shares with the Dominican Republic. Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) in size and has an estimated 10.8 million people, making it the most populous country in the Caribbean Community and the second-most populous country in the Caribbean as a whole.\nDespite having a viable tourist industry, Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and the poorest in the Americas region, with poverty, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of health care and lack of education cited as the main causes. Trade declined dramatically after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent outbreak of cholera. Haiti ranked 145 of 182 countries in the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index, with 57.3% of the population being deprived in at least three of the HDI's poverty measures. [You can view some historical, economic and cultural data about Haiti here.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html)\nHaiti is the last World Bank low income country in the Americas, with a [GNI per capita of only $760 as of 2017.](https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=XM-HT) [According to the CIA World Factbook, Haiti ranks 213th in the world (of 228 countries and territories) in terms of GDP per capita.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html#HA)\nThis question asks: When will Haiti become a World Bank upper middle-income country?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before Haiti is designated an upper middle-income country, or if Haiti ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated upper middle-income by the World Bank.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:38.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 221,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&qid=1550223728&s=gateway&sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.\nQuestion: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?\nResolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:43.909Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:49.294Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 371,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:31:54.597Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:00.521Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.\nPoker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. \nAn example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead not only to substandard play that is exploited by opponents, but also to penalties and even potential disqualification.\nAnd so we ask: when will a computer or robotic player become skilled enough at both the theoretical game and the physical game of poker to win a significant Texas HoldEm competition against humans in live play?\n\nDefinition of “significant competition”:\n----------------------------------------\n\nA Texas HoldEm tournament or cash game in which:\n---more than 300 hands are played \n---robotic and human players obey the same rules, without special accommodations for the perceptual or motor skills of the robotic player (including complying with verbal direction from the dealer and staff) \n---competitors include at least one human member of the top 200 of the [Hendon Mob All Time Money List](http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/all-time-money-list/) (at the time of play) \n---the winner (best-outcome player) is awarded more than $10,000 US (whether that money is awarded to the robot itself or to its owners or developers), with the same payouts made to robotic and human players. \nThere are a wide variety of ways in which a competition like this could come about, and the intent is to cast a wide net. Two contrasting examples, which would both count for positive resolution:\n1--A “Deep Blue vs. Kasparov”-style challenge, in which the whole point of the competition is to pit human against machine. \n2--Harold takes a week off from his middle-management desk job, walks into the Rio All-Suites Hotel in Las Vegas, and plunks down $10,000 in cash for a seat in the World Series of Poker Main Event, because (since the recent passage of Robotic Personhood legislation) no one can tell him that he can’t, and after all it’s his money. \n\nClarifications and fine print:\n------------------------------\n\n---The robot player must finish #1 in the event. In the case of a cash game, this means netting the most money by the end. In the case of a tournament, this means playing until a robot is the only one left. \n---The win must be for the entire event as scheduled. For example, if a televised cash-game event is scheduled to span multiple days, a win over the course of a single day does not suffice. If the event is a single-elimination heads-up tournament, it does not suffice to win the semi-final game, even if that guarantees a purse greater than $10,000 US. \n---The robot need not literally sit in a chair at the poker table, but needs to be at the table taking up approximately the same portion of the perimeter that a human player would be allowed. \n--- \nThe rules must allow for the kinds of sensory modalities that would normally be legal for human players, but not for perceptual abilities that would correspond to cheating for humans. Examples: \n------Scanning cards in a way that allows reading through the back to see symbols on the front – disallowed. \n------Scanning the backs of cards to record their imperfections and distinguish between them in the future (i.e. “Every card is marked.”) - disallowed. \n------Scanning the faces of opponents to determine their emotional state – fair game. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:11.003Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-03-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2220-02-28T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversaries?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/date-image-recognition-robust-vs-adversarials/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversaries?\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:16.296Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:21.674Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 314,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:27.018Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:32.220Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:38.010Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:43.180Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\nThus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n1-- \nAlready-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n2-- \nAlternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:48.416Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:53.742Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1337,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. \nWith thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).\nITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. \nThe project aims to:\n--- \nMomentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).\n--- \nProduce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)\nCurrently, it aims to produce its first [\"small star\" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).\nBy the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?\nFor the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:32:58.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 282,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:04.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:09.631Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 296,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:14.971Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:20.594Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\nThis question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. \nIt resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:25.795Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \nThis question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:30.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:36.233Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:41.374Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:46.566Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 356,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:51.795Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:33:57.580Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 176,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-16T10:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Self-driving car to beat a self-driving truck in making the first cross-USA trip?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2790/self-driving-car-to-beat-a-self-driving-truck-in-making-the-first-cross-usa-trip/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While self-driving cars could put hundreds of thousands of taxi drivers out of a job, self-driving trucks could leave millions of truck drivers without work. In his book, The War on Normal People, Andrew Yang cites the argument for self-driving trucks to come first:\nJim Scheinman, a venture capitalist at Maven Ventures who has backed startups in both autonomous trucks and cars, says that self-driving trucks will arrive significantly before cars because highway driving is so much easier. Highways, the domain of semi trucks, are much less complex than urban areas, with fewer intersections and clearer road markings. And the economic incentives around freight are much higher than with passenger cars.\nMorgan Stanley estimated the savings of automated freight delivery to be a staggering $168 billion per year in saved fuel ($35 billion), reduced labor costs ($70 billion), fewer accidents ($36 billion), and increased productivity and equipment utilization ($27 billion). That’s an enormously high incentive to show drivers to the door—it would actually be enough to pay the drivers their $40,000 a year salary to stay home and still save tens of billions per year. \nOn the other hand, Elon Musk has suggested that Autopilot will become robust enough to do an [autonomous cross-country roadtrip](https://electrek.co/2019/05/09/self-driving-cross-country-trip-everyone-tesla-this-year-musk/) by the end of the year, although he had made similar promises in [2017 and 2018](https://www.autopilotreview.com/tesla-cross-country-autopilot-2018/):\nWe could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too\n— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) [May 9, 2019](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)\nWill a self-driving car make a coast-to-coast trip before a self-driving truck does the same?\nThis question will have the same resolution condition as a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/) about self-driving trucks. For resolution, the car or truck must have no safety driver, but need not be commercially available. \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:02.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.\nThis could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:\nWhat will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?\nPrices can be queried [here](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/). Current prices as of writing are given as follows:\n--- \nTallinn to Amsterdam: €1013-€1352, with a median of €1183\n--- \nAmsterdam to Lisbon: €2730-€3641, with a median of €3186\n--- \nLisbon to Athens: €2184-€2913, with a median of €2549 \nHence the sum of the medians for each rides is €1183+€3186+€2549=€6918.\nResolution:\n---Resolution is by [Uber's estimator](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/), or the app if the former is not available.\n------if only given a range, take the median. \n---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride. \n---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:07.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-06-12T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_%28spacecraft%29) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:13.269Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 264,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
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- "name": "No",
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:18.543Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 269,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:23.750Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:29.058Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:34.315Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:39.513Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-04-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:44.677Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:49.973Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 486,
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- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:34:55.191Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:00.350Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-reduces-nuclear-stockpile-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIn 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held 3,800 (or fewer) nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:05.574Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_%28spacecraft%29) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://%28https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/%29) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:10.819Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:16.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, \nhow much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:21.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:26.942Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:32.247Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:37.454Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:42.579Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:47.738Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:52.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf):\nIn these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.\nIn this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?\nThe resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nRelated questions:\n---[Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/) \n---[World Population in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/) \n---[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](Will humans go extinct by 2100?) \n---[When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/) \n---[Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:35:58.555Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?\nThis question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.\nThe question resolves as >2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:03.816Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 318,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.\nThis question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?\nResolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.\nNote that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and [ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:09.136Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 301,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:24.722Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-08-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:30.081Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:35.274Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.\nSince biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:40.421Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\nTherefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:45.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:51.173Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:36:56.316Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:01.480Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.\nA promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)\nThere are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.\nNonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example [this startup](http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/news/26902/george-churchs-startup-testing-pig-organs-in-primates/) is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.\nWhen will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? \nThe organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define \"successful\" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:06.794Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)\nOver the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. \nThis question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:11.970Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:17.189Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:22.422Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 325,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption [(McMichael et al, 2007)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17868818). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming [might be causing substantial suffering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating).\nOverfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude [(Le Pape et al. 2017)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5547646/). Restoring and preserving marine life is [one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/envision2030-goal14.html). However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. [In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world](https://www.aiddata.org/publications/listening-to-leaders-2018), restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years ([Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-01-09-aligning-fisheries-aid-with-international-development-targets-and-goals.html)).\nSeveral clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/), the Canadian-based [SeaFuture](http://seafuturebio.com/) and the Singporean-based [Shiok Meats](https://shiokmeats.com/).\nAn IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean fish company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms \"clean fish\" or \"clean meat company\" producing \"fish\", where \"clean meat\" may be interchanged with \"cell-based\", \"in vitro\", \"cultivated\", or \"cultured\", and \"fish\" with any particular fish (e.g. \"clean tuna\"). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:27.566Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:32.734Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 176,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)).\nIf success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.\nMoreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.\nHow many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more. \nFor a company to qualify as a \"clean meat company\" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\" or \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.\nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nThe resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.\nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:43.469Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 145,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:48.630Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_%28tennis%29) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\nWill Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:37:58.932Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/).\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:04.077Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_%28satellite_constellation%29):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:09.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-05T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-15T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:14.591Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:19.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:25.115Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:30.277Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:35.453Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:45.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:14:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:51.248Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-04-02T22:14:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:38:56.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:02.339Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.\n[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).\nOn what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?\n1-- \nThe reported >=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent.\n2-- \nIf the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 2025, the question resolves as > Sep 15, 2025.\n3-- \nThe \"mining pool\" could either be a shared pool among unassociated miners, or a massive operation by a single entity.\n4-- \nNote that in hash rate distribution charts, \"Unknown\" does not necessarily mean a single unidentified mining pool is taking up that much hash rate, but simply that they aren't identified. To count for resolution, a pool must be discernibly combining their hash rate. If the hash rate from \"Unknown\" miners ever attained >=50% of the hash rate, but there were no reports to suggest a coordinated mining operation was taking up >=50% of the hash rate, then that does not count to positive resolution.\n5-- \nOne possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with >50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with >50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:07.522Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-09-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-09-15T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:12.686Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nDollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nCurrently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.\nHow much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017, $4b in 2018, $4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:17.854Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:23.071Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:28.286Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:33.618Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 306,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket exceeds $8. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves above $8 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:38.830Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is between $8 and $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is less than $8 or greater than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $8 or above $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:43.970Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger. \n[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo. \nWhat will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the lowest reported price per kilo in the month June, in 2022, of any plant-based beef (PBB) burger produced by Impossible Foods, and/or being marketed under the Impossible Foods brand, as indicated by credible reporting. The question shall resolve as the price in USD and in 2019 prices, adjusted for inflation using a commonly used U.S. CPI, such as one published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nCredible reporting of the price of the PBB burger's price should come from credible media reports, or photographic evidence of supermarkets' offline or online listings. Admin may choose to discount various evidence if it is judged that these are items are likely to be mislabelled, or due to glitches on websites, etc.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the PBB burger for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other special price structures that are only available for limited time, or to a strict subset of the supermarket's shoppers.\nPBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements for beef by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of beef, and are marketed as doing such.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nThe question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:49.242Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:54.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:39:59.718Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:04.944Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:10.224Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 361,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:15.494Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-24T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://%28https://fragilestatesindex.org%29)?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:21.201Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_%28structure%29):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:26.418Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:31.590Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year.\nHow much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nThe estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/files/sci-tech/clean-meat-production-volume-and-medium-cost.pdf). \nFor the purpose of this question, we shall adopt the following definition of Plant-Based Meat (based on [GFI, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/new-gfi-report-illustrates-the-state-of-chinas)):\n“plant-based meat” is taken to refer to plant-based products that aim to be direct replacements for animal meat by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of animal meat, and are marketed as doing such.\nA plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. \nFor singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. \nFor larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a \"plant-based meat\" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words \"plant-based meat\" or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"plant-based beef\" or \"plant-based burger\"), and/or variations where \"plant\" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. \"pea-based meat\" or \"soy-protein based chicken\").\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:41.968Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:47.109Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:52.453Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:40:57.770Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 371,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:02.923Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:08.099Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-09-29T07:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:13.232Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals that are approved by the FDA by the end of July, 2025, for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" or \"animal drugs\" are “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals” [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals anytime before the end of July, 2025. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/) resolves positively before the end of July, 2025.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:18.433Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:30.020Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 232,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:35.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 500,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:40.606Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-11-10T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).\nIn the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).\nFortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://%28https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y%29) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.\nWhen will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.\nExamples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). \nThe specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.\nIf the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as \"> Oct 2, 2035\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:45.805Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2031\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:50.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://%28https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y%29) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:41:56.113Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:\n1-- \nThe US government\n2-- \nSpaceX\n3-- \nAnother government\n4-- \nAnother corporation or private organization\n5-- \nOther (somehow)\nAlthough Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the \"weight\" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.\nResolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.\nCloses retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:01.436Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 292,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:\n---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. \nvs.\n---Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments. \nSocial scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict – a conflict that is contributing to [a decrease in political civility](https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94). Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. \nThis is the topic of [Marvin Minsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky)'s final advice to predictors:\nIt seems to me that the most important discovery since Gödel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but it’s got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\n— Marvin Minsky [Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding](https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403) World Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014\nFor some insight, you can watch the Nature video [\"Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist\"](https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8) based on [H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, “Causal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,” Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0)\nQuestion: Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among [macrosociology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology) models? \nA paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nIt compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.\n2-- \nIt has the keywords \"macrosociology\" or \"macroeconomic\" or some obvious derivation of these such as \"macrosocial\" or \"macroeconomics\".\n3-- \nIt defines \"size\" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of \"length\" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a [self-extracting archive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive) of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of \"size\" is used to award cash in [The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge](http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm) and is also used as a [a language modeling benchmark](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize). \n4-- \nIt defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.\n5-- \nIt is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:06.955Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-20T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:12.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:17.561Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:22.758Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.\nIt seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:\nWhen will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? \nQuestion resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.\nResolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.\n(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:27.912Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:38.339Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:44.154Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:49.332Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:54.546Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nHow many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:42:59.766Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2022-2024 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:04.909Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:10.212Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:21.118Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-04T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:26.256Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-02T00:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-11-01T00:45:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [\"the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.\"](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.\nThis question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?\nIn 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).\nThis question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:31.462Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nHow many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:36.698Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.\nThis question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?\nQuestion resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:41.889Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:47.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:52.266Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nThere is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies [reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/6/Egg-sexing-close-to-market-301797E/). \nWhen will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??\nResolution\nThis resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.\nFor the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if: \n1-- \ntechniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and\n2-- \nat least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.\nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:43:57.446Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T01:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:02.593Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, if this occurs by year 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/first-revivaluploading-of-cryonics-patient/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nWhen will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, if this occurs by year 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:07.768Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:13.033Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:18.296Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:23.469Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:29.375Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:34.608Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 257,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-08-08T07:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:39.856Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:45.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .\nIn the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.\nNaive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.\nThe best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.\nIn 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:50.301Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\nWhat the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the egg-laying flock that are in any cage-free category in June 2025, according to figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For the number of egg-laying hens that are in any cage-free category, we shall use the the estimated \"layer flock size\" of \"all cage-free layers\" for the month July ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/rj4304553?locale=en) in early August). For the total number of egg layers, we use the USDA estimate of the number layers producing table or market type eggs ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n?locale=en)).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:44:55.466Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:00.597Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).\nWhen will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?\nResolution\nTypes 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:05.793Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWhat will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?\nResolution\nThe question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:\n---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 \n---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 \n---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 \n---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 \n---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 \n---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:10.913Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:16.269Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 247,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:21.583Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:26.738Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:31.920Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_%28satellite_constellation%29), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_%28satellite_constellation%29#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:48.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 496,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:45:58.645Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:03.862Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:14.240Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\n[According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tracker, as of the 28th of November, 2019, 1753 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains.\nWhen will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken \"ingredients\" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:19.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:24.698Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2053-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3383/when-will-1-terabyte-microsd-cards-fall-below-100usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the 2019 Mobile World Congress, both [Micron and SanDisk announced the first 1TB MicroSD cards.](https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2019/2/25/18239433/1tb-microsd-card-sandisk-micron-price-release) Those came to the consumer market [the following May](https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/15/18626729/sandisks-1tb-microsd-card-available-b-h-photo-amazon-price), with a retail price of $449.99USD. They have been seen [on sale as low as $199.99USD](https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/best-black-friday-ssd-deals-2019).\nWhen will a 1TB MicroSD be available for retail purchase for less than the equivalent of $100USD (in 2019)?\nThis can be a temporary sale price, so long as it can be straightforwardly purchased at that price by an ordinary consumer. The following circumstances are not applicable to resolve this question: sufficiently low prices derived from one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, programs such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership perks or other special price structures that are only available to a strict subset of the retailer's customers, or prices achieved by purchasing in bulk.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:29.955Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-28T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number π (pi) is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.\nIn March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).\nWhat will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:35.136Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 215,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:40.378Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 349,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-07-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:45.562Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:50.775Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm).\nIn the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en).\nYet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish.\nSimilarly, in the U.S., the [Humane Slaughter Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act) requires animals should be stunned into unconsciousness prior to their slaughter but this excludes poultry, fish, rabbits. \nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nThe [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nAccording to an appropriately named expert on fish stunning, van de Vis, [currently 3 to 4% of farmed fish stunned globally](https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/185/3/70).\nWhat percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide will be estimated to be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide estimated to be stunned in the first calendar year between 2027 and 2032 (inclusive) for which both credible estimates of the number of fish stunned worldwide in aquacultural production are available, and credible estimates for the total number of fish produced by aquacultural production are available.\nFor the purpose of this question, credible estimates, should be those in research deemed sufficiently rigorous and reliable for an admin to judge that there is ≥90% chance for the true number to be within 25% of the median of the estimate. \nStunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food, such as by percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. \nIn case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:46:55.938Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\nIn light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?\n\nResolution\n----------\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n1-- \nIf the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n2-- \nIf the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n3-- \nIn the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\nFurther reading\n---------------\n\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n--- \nZak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n--- \nRobine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:01.164Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:06.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:12.286Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:22.991Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:28.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. \nHow many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:33.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:38.726Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 839,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:49.289Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 332,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-31T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.).\nSince approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein:\nRoughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed.\nIn the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?\nResolution\nEstimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food & Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:54.474Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [239 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](http://%28https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler%29). \nHow many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending at latest in 2030, on December 1st, 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:47:59.617Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-30T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\nIn the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nWill 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. grams, of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.\nFor the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).\nMoreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:04.738Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:15.286Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:20.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:26.214Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 480,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). \nWe might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) \"[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/).\nWhen will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when two or more supermarketets in the United States offers a clean fish product for human consumption for sale in physical locations in at least 25 states. The product must contain at least 8 grams of clean fish. The clean fish containing product must cost less than $25 per 100 grams.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:36.589Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with >30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:41.831Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:46.966Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:52.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 407,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-29T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:48:57.498Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At what point will at least ten technologies listed on \"The Rejuvenation Roadmap\" be released to the public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which\naims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.\nAs of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.\nIf ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if:\n---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). \n---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. \n---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:02.795Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:08.478Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:13.818Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 655,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by 2100-01-01, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:19.284Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 191,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-11T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177.\nHow many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?\nThis question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A \"patient\" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:24.554Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:29.867Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 767,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:35.066Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:40.688Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-02-23T23:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:43:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:45.855Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nWhen will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:51.152Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 359,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:49:56.457Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 221,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:01.639Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-04-22T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:07.035Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 495,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:12.906Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as \"midnight\" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of \"minutes\" (and [recently \"seconds\"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.\nIts original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.\nThis question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?\nThis resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement. \nIf resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to > 2100-01-01.\nIf either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:18.061Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:28.399Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:33.532Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:38.659Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:43.858Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:49.029Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the mean year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:50:54.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)\nThis resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:00.159Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:05.338Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:10.669Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:15.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:26.548Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:31.970Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:37.409Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:42.616Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:48.611Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 310,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:54.094Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 285,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the United States admit a new state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:51:59.463Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:04.680Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:10.006Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 338,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_%28United_States%29) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:15.166Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:20.365Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.\nThis question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:25.545Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:30.690Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:35.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 209,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:41.282Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 353,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:46.454Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).\nIf Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:51.609Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:52:56.960Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 496,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:07.431Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 176,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:13.001Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:18.343Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 505,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:23.588Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:28.859Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:34.037Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:39.167Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.\nBefore the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:44.462Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1016,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:49.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.\nAmong the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.\nThat being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).\nIn order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and potentially cracking RSA keys, RSA Laboratories put forward their [RSA Factoring Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge) in 1991. Though the challenges officially ended in 2007, they’re still used as a common benchmark for factoring to this day. The largest number factored so far, [RSA-240](https://lists.gforge.inria.fr/pipermail/cado-nfs-discuss/2019-December/001139.html), was publicized only last December. The full list of numbers, including all known factorizations, can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers).\nWhen will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?\nResolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:53:54.855Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:00.130Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:05.946Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178). \nSurface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nWhat will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as maximum change in global annual mean surface air, based on Land and Ocean Data, in degrees Celsius, in any year in the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive of both 2020 and 2023). This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:11.066Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:16.358Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 476,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-17T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&feature=youtu.be&t=1h30m02s) was that, \"Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.\nWe ask:\nWhat will be the best bits-per-character compression of the Hutter Prize at the end of 2022? \nTo calculate the current bits-per-character(*), [click here for the Hutter Prize records table](http://www.hutter1.net/prize/index.htm#prev), look in the \"Total Size\" column for most-recently awarded value, multiply by 8 and divide by .\n(*) Strictly speaking, this is \"bits-per-byte\" but this relaxation of definitions is quite common in computerdom.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:22.188Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.\n[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation.\" \nWhen will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?\nThis question will resolve to a report from a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that indicates that a fusion company (private, public or governmental) turned a yearly profit.\nFor a company to be a fusion company, it must generate over 75% of its revenue from the sale of energy generated by nuclear fusion.\nRelated questions\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:27.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nNuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)).\nOn the other hand, \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). Also see: [Pure fusion weapon — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon).\n\nDefinition\n==========\n\n\"The fusion energy gain factor, usually expressed with the symbol Q, is the ratio of fusion power produced in a nuclear fusion reactor to the power required to maintain the plasma in steady state. The condition of Q = 1, when the power being released by the fusion reactions is equal to the required heating power, is referred to as breakeven, or in some sources, scientific breakeven.\nThe energy given off by the fusion reactions may be captured within the fuel, leading to self-heating. Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5. If Q increases past this point, increasing self-heating eventually removes the need for external heating. At this point the reaction becomes self-sustaining, a condition called ignition. Ignition corresponds to infinite Q, and is generally regarded as highly desirable for practical reactor designs.\"\n(source: [Fusion energy gain factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor))\n\nResolution criteria\n===================\n\nIf a relevant Wikipedia page states that a fusion reactor has reached ignition, and continues to state that for at least 10 months in a 12 months period, this question gets resolved with the date mentioned on Wikipedia. If Wikipedia isn't active anymore, a paper replicating the fusion reactor ignition will confirm the resolution as the date at which the first paper reported ignition.\n\nRelated questions\n=================\n\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:32.846Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:38.168Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:43.374Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 277,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many communist states will there be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.\nSimultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict).\nThe question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"communist state\" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.\nThis question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:48.659Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/satoshis-bitcoins-spent-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nWill any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075? \nThis question will resolve positively if any bitcoin known to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto's original wallet addresses have been transferred, according to credible media reports.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, this will not count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else who then spend them, this will qualify for resolution. Any transactions in any amount of bitcoin will qualify for resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:53.887Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 180,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-05-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\nedited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:54:59.078Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:04.204Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:09.342Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:14.921Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:20.162Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 296,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\nThe day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\nOur custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:25.830Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:31.021Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:36.213Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:41.493Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:\n--- \nEnsure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.\n--- \nBuild a stronger, more resilient nation.\n--- \nRally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change\n--- \nStand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities.\n--- \nFulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth.\nIn order to predict the success of these polices, I ask:\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\nResolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:51.980Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:55:57.193Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T09:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:03.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 295,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:08.465Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1733,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:13.774Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 795,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:24.250Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:29.542Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 305,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:34.774Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:39.953Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/usd-dominant-reserve-currency-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nWill the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:45.222Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 176,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\nWill Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?\n---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. \n---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. \n---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. \n---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:51.210Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-14T11:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:56:56.479Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 285,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). \nThe question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"currently undiscovered\" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.\nFor this question, a \"social media\" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:01.772Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nIf there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by 2050-01-01:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:06.979Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-06-27T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nIf there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by 2050-01-01:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:12.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-06-27T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:17.411Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 229,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.\nThe country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.\nWhen, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?\nFor this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as \">2050\". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.\nThe question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.\nIn the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:22.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:32.998Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:38.499Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 406,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:48.848Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 145,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:54.470Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 570,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:57:59.699Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.\nBut will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654).\nWhat will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? \nWe will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, [ems](http://ageofem.com/), genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count. \nResolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.\nInspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:10.698Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-17T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2074-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:16.464Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 415,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:27.074Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:32.416Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities.\nOn February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported,\nOne of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.\nThis question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (>10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:37.705Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 345,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:43.382Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:48.663Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_%28histology%29) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:53.870Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:58:59.149Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:04.435Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:09.693Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:14.834Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n--- \nThe US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).\n--- \nAny year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.\nDefine the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.\nWe divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and .\nWhat will be this depression's relative severity ?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:20.049Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Caloric restriction is,\na dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. \"Reduce\" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.\nAssume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?\nFor the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that\n--- \nDid not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction\n--- \nQuit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. \n--- \nBegan caloric restriction after the age of 50.\nOf the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:30.591Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:35.828Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\nIt is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.\nA world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:41.631Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:46.940Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nAfter an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:52.253Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 320,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Disease:\nis a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs.\nAccording to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. \nFuturists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp),\nWould it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? That a time will come when death would result only from extraordinary accidents or the more and more gradual wearing out of vitality, and that, finally, the duration of the average interval between birth and wearing out has itself no specific limit whatsoever? No doubt man will not become immortal, but cannot the span constantly increase between the moment he begins to live and the time when naturally, without illness or accident, he finds life a burden?\nThis question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) < 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.\nOne such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T09:59:57.431Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2090-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:02.790Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:08.017Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).\nWhen will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?\nResolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.\nThe question resolves as \">2040\" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:18.893Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:24.052Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_%28climate_engineering%29) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_%28climate_engineering%29). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:34.400Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. \nWill Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:39.698Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.\nThis question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:44.892Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2074-10-10T09:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-10-10T09:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\nThis question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:50.106Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:00:55.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:00.545Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:05.734Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:11.010Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-04T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:16.259Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. \nOren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.\nThis question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.\nIf the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:27.132Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:32.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:37.545Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_%28chess_computer%29), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_%28poker_bot%29), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players in poohsticks. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:42.715Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-29T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-11T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:48.023Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:53.569Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:01:58.743Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:03.929Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:09.200Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_%28game_theory%29) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:14.503Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:19.721Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:24.846Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:35.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?\nResolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).\nBy average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:45.670Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised.\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems.\nAs of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. \nHowever, there is optimism that a significant reduction in cost to LEO could be achieved in the near future. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claims that the company's Starship and Super Heavy launch system, currently in development, could eventually achieve a cost per kilogram to LEO of as little as $10: \n[Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 & 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, what will be the lowest cost, in inflation-adjusted dollars, to deliver a kilogram of mass to low Earth orbit (or beyond; suborbital flights are excluded) using any system that has actually completed at least one successful delivery at the stated price?\nInflation adjustment should be completed using a consumer price index method, with January 2020 taken as the reference month.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:02:50.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:01.219Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics.\nSuppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively.\nWhat is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)?\n--- \nDrugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 \n--- \nNon-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:07.021Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-22T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2071-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/25-year-lifespan-increase-discovery-by-2067/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nBy 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:12.228Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:17.454Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will North Korea become a democracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&LangID=E), \"the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.\" The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. \nNorth Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.\nJanuary 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves > in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:22.627Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), \"the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,\" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is \"an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).\"\nWhile the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.\nWhat will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:27.761Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:33.040Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.\nSENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. \nAs a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.\nHere's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year were $8,617,564.\nThis question asks: For the 2021 tax year, what figure will SENS Research Foundation report on their Form 990 as the value of their gross receipts, in US dollars?\nIn the event that no such filing is made (e.g. because SRF no longer exists or is no longer required to file this form), this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:38.197Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:43.438Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 195,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:48.607Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?\nThis question will resolve on the date when it is estimated that less than 1% of global internet traffic uses IPv4, by ratio of IPv4 transactions to total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). This question will resolve according to data from [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/visualizations/state-of-the-internet-report/ipv6-adoption-visualization), or if they no longer publish this data, Metaculus Admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:53.789Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:03:58.952Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:04.145Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 217,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674%2819%2930231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.\nThe [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.\nAs of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).\nThis question asks: When will the first study be published that includes at least 1,000,000 persons of African descent in a GWAS?\nFor the purposes of this question:\n--- \nPublished studies mean research papers that are open to public readership, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. This includes preprints (e.g. biorXiv), and other open science documents.\n--- \nWhole exome sequencing, whole genome sequencing, and genome-wide genotyping arrays count.\n--- \nAfrican American and Afro-Caribbean and other majority African ancestry populations are counted as \"African\" though they are part non-African ancestry. The data are classified this way in studies.\n--- \nThe question will resolve as >2040 if no such study is published before December 31, 2040.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:09.310Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:14.586Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 362,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:19.882Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-04-10T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy)\nOpen Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?\nCari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.\nAs of 2020, Open Phil [has donated a little over $1 billion](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants), almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?\nMoney donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.\nBy the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:25.522Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2623-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_%28test%29). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:30.734Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/time-of-recovery-following-global-catastrophe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nIf the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?\nThis question will resolve as the number of years between the date when the total population of humans is less than 100 million, and the following date when the estimate is greater than 1 billion. The estimates of population will include all humans in the observable universe. If there is no population decline to 100 million or less between January 1, 2000 to January 20, 2345, this question will resolve as ambiguous. If the human race never rebounds (ie. goes extinct), this question resolves as >3000.\nFor this question, \"Humans\" are defined as creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:35.900Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 180,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters.\nPhysical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.\nI ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:46.234Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:51.419Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_%28nuclear_test%29) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:04:56.629Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:01.920Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 279,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:07.094Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_%28geneticist%29):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:12.293Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:23.237Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2057-07-29T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.\nA [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat percentage of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:28.425Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? \nThis question will resolve as the average annual return on global stocks for the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031 (including dividends). The global stock market will be tracked using [FTSE Global All Cap Index](https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=GEISAC:FSI), or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:33.616Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:38.748Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.\nThis question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?\nThis question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:44.026Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-25T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:49.309Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 211,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we have a new Pope?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_%28smoke%29), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:05:55.083Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:00.231Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will direct carbon capture tech cost <$50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/date-carbon-capture-costs-50-per-ton/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct carbon capture tech cost <$50 (2020 USD) per ton of CO2?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does not count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:05.535Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? \nThis question will resolve as the annual percentage return on the [S&P 500](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP) for the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031 (including dividends).\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis using the [Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:10.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 300,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:16.167Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:21.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:26.550Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-09T11:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-11T11:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).\nWill oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?\nThis question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:31.872Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 229,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:37.057Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:42.221Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. \nThis questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?\nThe total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:47.402Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:06:53.156Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. \nRecently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, \nAs the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.\nIn their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.\nThere are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course \"other.\" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:\nLuckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:\nWill the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? \nResolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:03.531Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/date-china-gathers-1b-citizen-genomes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).\nThe question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? \nThis question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).\nFurther details: \n--- \nThe date for resolving is the one where this goal was reached, not the reporting date. For the purpose of this question, whole genome sequencing and whole-genome microarray technology count\n--- \nBy citizens, we mean citizens of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong\n--- \nGenomes from monozygotic (identical) twins count as multiple different genomes for the purpose of this question\nGenotyping only counts if it is both broad (samples widely in the genome), and deep (samples many loci, say >500k). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:19.044Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:24.239Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:29.515Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have enacted stimulus packages that have incurred [significant debt](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/29/coronavirus-downturn-likely-to-add-to-high-government-debt-in-some-countries/) at the same time that GDP is shrinking due to the pandemic. [Austria](https://www.reuters.com/article/health-oronavirus-austria-debt/austria-expects-debt-to-gdp-ratio-of-more-than-90-this-year-kurz-says-idUSV9N2BU00L) and the [UK](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-debt-exceeds-gdp-for-first-time-in-60-years-g6lgcbzp9), for example, both expect substantial increases in debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of these two factors.\n[The United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) reached a debt-to-GDP ratio of 118.9% during WWII, which fell sharply afterwards, but has increased in recent decades, to 106.9% in 2019.\nWhat will the US debt-to-GDP ratio be at its maximum between now and the end of 2023?\nThe question resolves as the highest debt-to-GDP ratio between the opening of this question and the end of 2023, when all values through 2023 have been published by the [St. Louis Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:34.746Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:40.410Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.\nApparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.\nThe Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.\nWhen will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?\n---This question may resolve if The Boring Company or its representative issues a statement that one of its TBMs is currently tunneling, or has tunneled, at a rate of at least 140 meters per day (even momentarily, e.g. 6 m in one hour). \n---This question may also resolve if some tunnel, at least 1 km long, is completed at a rate of at least 140 meters per day, from the moment that the TBM starts boring the earth at the entrance, to when it breaks through the exit. \n---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. \n---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:45.700Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-22T05:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-06-22T05:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:50.919Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-20T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2048-01-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority:\n---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination \n---A report from another body of the United Nations \n---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson \n---A report by another credible source \nIf the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0.\nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an internationally recognized currency, the value given will be converted to United States dollars using the [ UN Operational Rates of Exchange](https://treasury.un.org/operationalrates/default.php). If the UN Operational Rates of Exchange do not exist at that time, any other method of conversion may be used subject to the discretion of Metaculus admins. \nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is no longer used internationally, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:07:56.090Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:01.266Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:07.034Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 412,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:12.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20%28NHANES%29%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:17.547Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\nAccording to the BBC: \nIt emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\nThe researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\nThe virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\nThey found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\nCurrent flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:22.709Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).\nWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war between 2020-01-01 and 2050-01-01. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.\n[2021-11-23]: Edited to clarify the definition of \"deliberate\" detonations.\n[Barrett et al. 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) defined terms to distinguish between causes of nuclear detonations:\nIn an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\nIn an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:28.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination.\nAlcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html):\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nSo, what’s your preference? Better pictures, or better biological viability? The neuroscientists want the pictures. Alcor has traditionally worked to achieve better biological viability.\n[...] The cryobiological experts who advise Alcor favor the use of Alcor’s current protocol (or we would have changed it).\nThe Brain Preservation Foundation, which awarded the $80,000 prize for ASC, is more hopeful, claiming that these better pictures make the brain more suitable for eventual resurrection via scanning and uploading.\nWhat will the value (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved using fixatives, who are revived) / (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved without using fixatives, who are revived) be at the start of 2200?\nThis counts only the people who are cryopreserved while fixatives are available, so that the question measures only the effect from using fixatives, and not general improvement in cryonics between 1967 and whenever fixatives become available, and from later techniques which would supersede fixatives. \n\"Available\" means that a cryonics organisation officially offers cryopreservation using fixatives to its members.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\nIf nobody is revived from cryopreservation before 2200, or nobody is cryopreserved using fixatives, then this resolves ambiguously. If the only people revived are those who were preserved using fixatives, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:33.547Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2133-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths.\nCryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible.\nChances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops.\nI thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the next 30 years:\nWhat percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:38.742Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2133-06-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/agi-preceeds-lev/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:43.946Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a universal flu vaccine be available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains.\nFor at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highly effective universal flu vaccine combined with a strong vaccination campaign could lead to the flu being virtually eliminated in some places, as with other diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. However, even a moderately effective universal flu vaccine might substantially increase vaccination coverage and reduce flu severity.\nWhen will a universal flu vaccine be available?\n---To be considered available, a vaccine must be approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicine Agency. The resolution date is the first date of approval. \n---A universal flu vaccine must meet one of the following conditions.\n------The vaccine is effective for multiple years. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses that it may be received less than once per year. \n------The vaccine is effective against unseen strains. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses the use of a version of the vaccine that was formulated without using the WHO's current yearly recommended vaccine composition (or any similar yearly recommendation). \n---Beyond the above conditions, there are no specific requirements on effectiveness. \n---It is acceptable if the universal flu vaccine is recommended in conjunction with, and not as a replacement to, traditional flu vaccines. \n---Since even existing flu vaccines may provide some residual protection against the flu, the vaccine in question must be described or advertised as being universal, broad-spectrum, etc. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:49.098Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-11T03:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2090-01-11T03:46:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:54.293Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:08:59.507Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:04.826Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/) [closed] \n[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nWhen will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:10.029Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:15.813Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:20.946Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:26.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:31.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:36.542Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.\nWhen will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?\n---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:\n------It is a headset, i.e. a device that attaches to one's head and displays content in front of one's eyes, rather than e.g. a neural chip or a holodeck room. \n------It is virtual reality, i.e. in primary usage it completely or almost completely occludes the outside world, rather than laying an image over it as in augmented reality. \n------It must have 6 degrees of freedom (6DoF tracking); that is, it must track both the 3-dimensional direction that the user is facing, and the 3-dimensional location of the user. \n------It must either be bundled with hand controllers which are similarly 6DoF-tracked, or such compatible controllers must be sold separately (first-party, not from an aftermarket manufacturer). In particular, PSVR qualifies due to the PS Move controllers. 6DoF hand-tracking without physical controllers may qualify only if it is sufficiently precise that it can recognize individual finger motions accurately enough to play 2016 VR games, as judged by the admins. \n------Phone adapters, etc. do not count (even if they had 6DoF tracking); the device in question must be marketed primarily as a headset. \n------There are no further restrictions on price, feature set, method of tracking, tethered vs. standalone, or computing power. \n------For clarity, the following current headsets qualify: HTC Vive family, Oculus Rift family, Oculus Quest, Valve Index, PSVR, Windows MR. \n------The following headsets do not qualify: Oculus Go, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard/Daydream, Magic Leap One, Microsoft Hololens. \n---This question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 10 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. \n---Sales are not prorated over time; for example, if a report indicates that 5 million headsets were sold in 2027, and 20 million were sold in 2028, this question resolves as December 31, 2028. If a manufacturer says that 12 million headsets were sold in Q1-Q3, this question resolves as the end of Q3, or September 30. \n---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of \"VR headsets\" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources. \n---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:41.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:47.347Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.\nThese electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:\n--- \n[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.\n--- \n[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.\nPlurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.\nThis question asks:\nIn the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?\nResolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. \n--- \nStates using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as \"plurality\", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.\n--- \nStates which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.\n--- \nIf the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:52.558Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-03T11:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/first-award-for-spanish-sci-fi-by-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill any science fiction literature originally written and published in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:09:57.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch \"Manhattan project\" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. \nA [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the \"lead up\" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be \"on the runway\"?\nAs an assessment of that question, we ask here:\nWhen will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? \nWe'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:\n1-- \nIt has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and\n2-- \nIt is constituted so as to generate a single \"flagship\" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and\n3-- \nThere is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.\n\n\nSome fine print:\n--- \nQuestion will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.\n--- \nThe project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups.\n--- \nFunding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. \n--- \nNote that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)\n--- \nThere is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.\n--- \nResolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.\n--- \nIn the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:02.970Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:08.182Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:13.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 449,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:18.635Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:23.873Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:29.031Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in 2030 USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar* technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:34.185Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:39.330Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:44.488Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:49.654Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:10:54.807Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\nA paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\nIn machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\nThe photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \nWhile several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).\nThis question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:00.036Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:05.226Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:11.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:16.237Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:21.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:26.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:31.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:36.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:42.122Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.\nHow many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?\nFor reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.\n* Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:47.338Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-08T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:52.516Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:11:57.839Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 571,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:02.989Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many of the \"priority paths\" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:08.762Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-31T14:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:13.945Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/deworming-recommended-by-givewell-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X%2816%2930242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:19.154Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity.\nGiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated.\nThis question asks: \nWhen will GiveWell's list of top charities first contain a charity which was founded by someone who received either training or a grant from Charity Entrepreneurship?\nResolution will be according to the GiveWell website, and/or credible media reporting. If GiveWell decides to no longer produce a list of \"top charities\", this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:24.333Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:29.620Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:34.888Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:40.070Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:45.338Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Woke index in US elite media top?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.\nResolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?\n---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). \n---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. \n---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:50.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:12:55.858Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:00.993Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),\nThe marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.\nThe best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.\nThese two Metaculus questions are relevant:\n[Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/)\n[Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/)\nAlso see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)\nThis question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:06.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-10T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:12.211Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:17.418Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question simply asks:\nWhen will the first baby be born away from Earth?\nThe question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at >2120.\nSimilar questions:\n---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:22.652Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2119-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will One Piece end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nWhen will One Piece end?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). For the purposes of this question, we will exclude any spinoffs and sequels.\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:27.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:38.354Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 169,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:43.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:48.922Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:54.122Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:13:59.369Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:34:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:04.546Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:09.683Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nLevels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index).\nIn the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission). For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html). As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerability to the influence of solar weather increases apace. \nOn occasion (and independently of the longer-term changes in upper atmospheric temperature and density triggered by the solar cycle) the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field during geomagnetic storms can produce short-term [increases in the temperature and density of Earth’s thermosphere, increasing drag around satellites](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Increased drag in turn decreases the interval over which a satellite can orbit without re-adjustment. In the absence of maintenance boosting, low-earth satellites will [lose altitude and eventually re-enter the atmosphere](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/40-years-ago-skylab-reenters-earth-s-atmosphere).\nWhat will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:14.816Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-11T02:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. \nAs [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports:\n“Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” \nForecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orbit are affected by an increased atmospheric drag. Moreover, [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) and CMEs during the period surrounding solar maximum can severely damage satellite electronics and present degradations to a variety of communications technologies. \nOn what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maxima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:19.947Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-11T02:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. \nThe minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf). As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of extended low activity, similar to historical lapses such as the Dalton and Geissman minima. The onset of Solar Cycle 26 will either confirm existence of an extended period of low activity or, alternately, signal the close of what turns out to be merely a relatively brief suppression of cycle strength.\nDuring a run of weak cycles and feeble solar activity, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Over time, this will permit an increased amount of “space junk” to accumulate in low Earth orbit, leading to higher collision probabilities for satellites. Weak solar cycles are associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication, and in extreme cases, they can possibly influence Earth’s climate, as may have happened with the so-called [Maunder Minimum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) from 1645 to 1715, during which the Solar Cycle was suppressed and sunspots were rare.\nWhen will the next minimum after Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:25.105Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T02:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-02T02:25:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:30.843Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:35.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as >2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:46.342Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:51.554Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) \"the market value of all the final goods and services produced\". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.\nOne notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).\nDenmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?\nResolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:14:56.730Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation.\nOverall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year.\nWhile deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years.\nHow many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?\nResolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:02.555Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:07.769Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n1--There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n2--Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n3--Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n4--It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \nNote that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:13.063Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 541,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:18.234Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar Cycle 25 is predicted to begin sometime before the end of 2020. The beginning of the solar cycle occurs during the solar minimum, which is characterized by low activity and few sunspots. \nA variety of observations indicate that during solar minima, the Sun experiences long-lived coronal holes, which are “vast regions in the Sun’s atmosphere where the Sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.” Solar wind emanating from coronal holes can cause space weather effects around Earth as the wind interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While the typical energy density of the solar wind is substantially less than that of atmospheric winds on earth, its effects are manifested by auroral displays near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field is weakest. \nDuring solar minimum, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites), which can lead to an increased amount of “space junk” in Earth’s atmosphere and higher collision rates for satellites in orbit. The period surrounding solar minimum is also associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication.\nWhen will Solar Cycle 25’s minima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:23.553Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T01:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:21:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:28.705Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: \n“ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” \nBeisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten times as frequent at the solar maxima than at the minimum](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent). \n[CMEs allow for solar wind and particles to escape the sun and move towards Earth](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming), which can cause geo-magnetic storms and auroral displays. \nWhat will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution criteria will be provided by the [SOHO LASCO CME catalog](https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) provided by the CDAW data center by NASA and the Catholic University of America with the Naval Research Laboratory. The size of the CME will be determined by its kinetic energy (KE). This question will resolve ambiguously if no data is available, or it is incalculable due to missing values.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:33.877Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T02:34:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:38.999Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:44.231Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:50.390Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 992,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:15:55.750Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 311,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:00.996Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:06.307Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 445,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://%28https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/%29) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:11.623Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:16.930Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)\nOn January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.\nIf Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?\nResolution:\n---Determination of whether Trump was elected will be based on the resolution of this question: [Will Trump be re-elected president in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) \n---If Trump is not re-elected for any reason, this question resolves according to the number of lawful permanent residents reported by the Office of Immigration Statistics for January 1, 2022. \n---If Trump is re-elected or if the Office of Immigration Statistics does not report the relevant statistics before January 1 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. \nThe report with data for 2015 to 2019 can be found on [this website](https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics).\nOther possible world:\n---[If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5125/if-trump-is-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:27.247Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:33.166Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \">\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:48.790Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:54.042Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:16:59.423Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 287,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:04.665Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:09.954Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:15.094Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled before inauguration day 2025, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:21.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 584,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \">2050-09-05\". \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:26.263Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 205,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-09-05T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_%28company%29) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:31.676Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human head transplant occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.\nMuch more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.\nRecently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.\nThe body donor, meanwhile, will likely be a someone who died of severe head trauma but whose body was left unscathed. The researchers claim to have been perfecting the technique on mice, a dog, a monkey, and, recently, a human cadaver. Originally, they predicted a fall 2017 transplant but now [just say it is “imminent.”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/italian-doctor-says-worlds-first-human-head-transplant-imminent/847288001/).\nWhen will will a human head transplant operation be performed\nResolution is positive regardless of the survival of the patient after the operation. Positive resolution requires the patient who provides the donor head to be alive right before the procedure: the patient providing the donor head should not be declared legally dead 48 hours or more before the transplant occurs. Brain-only transplants do not count towards positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:41.980Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-09T22:01:59.305000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-09T19:52:20.028000Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:47.286Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_%28Denmark%29) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:52.486Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:17:57.761Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 169,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:02.932Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:08.193Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:13.499Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_%28United_States_Congress%29), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:18.723Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:24.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 534,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:34.970Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 299,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:40.183Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:45.334Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:50.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:18:55.976Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:01.289Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-14T13:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/). \nThese organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.\nWhat is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?\nIf no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously.\nIf only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nOtherwise, this resolves at the value (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at Alcor while both organisations were active) / (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at the Cryonics Institute while both organisations were active) at the start of 2200.\n\"Active\" means that the organisation is currently officially offering cryopreservation to its members and storing them at its own facilities.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:06.472Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2141-07-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:11.651Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:22.364Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 215,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:27.668Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "title": "When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:32.862Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:38.047Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:43.864Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 247,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:49.122Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:54.296Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 211,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:19:59.628Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:05.046Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 543,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:25.935Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:31.831Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:37.266Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/kamala-harris-wins-2024-us-presidency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:42.558Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 548,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:47.709Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:53.649Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?\nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:20:58.817Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:04.084Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:09.323Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:14.481Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_%28company%29) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:19.669Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was \"disgusted\" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are \"[explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html).\"\nWhen will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?\nThis question resolves when the letters in question are made public.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:24.854Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2149-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:30.052Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n---Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship. \n---In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020. \n---In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)). \n---France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients). \n---The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used. \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.\nWill the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:35.237Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:41.112Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:46.676Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 474,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-26T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:51.923Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 284,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:21:57.069Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions: \n---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) \n---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) \n---[When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) \nIn 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma%27s_Revenge_%28video_game%29).\nAs of 2021 Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43 791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. However, it requires billions of frames or years of game play to achieve that performance.\nI attempted to calibrate this question by playing the game for 15 min. In this time I managed to score a maximum of 6700 points. [You can test the game on your own here.](https://www.retrogames.cz/play_124-Atari2600.php?language=EN)\nAn AI system which is able to rapidly learn in dynamic environments could have a great impact on the world's economy.\nWhen will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?\nThis question will resolve when a reputable source reports that an AI system managed to score strictly more than 6000 points at least once within the first 30 minutes of the game play (no more than 108 000 frames). The system must have no previous direct access to the Montezuma's Revenge game, but it may be pretrained in other ways.\nWith regard to pretraining, the question allows:\n---unlimited training on anything that is unrelated to the game \n---unlimited training on all other Atari games \n---having videos and/or screenshots of the Montezuma's Revenge game in the training set as long as they unambiguously consist of less than 3% of the training set \n---access to any text resources related to the game including tutorials etc. \nBesides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit.\nIn general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:02.306Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:07.612Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:12.767Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:23.028Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:28.148Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:33.350Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-07T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:38.529Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:44.466Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:49.706Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.\nHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) \nIn late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. \nThe next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.\nWhat percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?\nThe question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. \nIn the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.\nIf the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. \nIf the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.\nIf the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nA candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:22:54.924Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-18T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:00.222Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:07:38Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T21:06:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:05.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:10.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:15.859Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:26.186Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:31.994Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Triplebyte](https://triplebyte.com/) is a software engineering certification company that works with engineers to find jobs. Recently, [they added a path](https://triplebyte.com/blog/announcing-triplebyte-for-machine-learning-engineers) for machine learning engineers and data scientists. Triplebyte also generally releases [salary data](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/) for engineers who pass their interview process. However, their ML/data science path has apparently not been available for long enough to provide median salary data on their salary information page (currently, when you select \"ML / Data Science\" on the page, it does not change the distribution). Hopefully by 2023, the data will be available.\nWhat will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?\nIf by January 1st 2023, Triplebyte reveals the median salary for ML/data science engineers who passed their interview, then this question resolves on the median salary value in US dollars on that date (which can currently be found [here](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/)). If Triplebyte releases data on ML engineers and data scientists separately, then the median salary for ML engineers should determine resolution. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:37.125Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:47.481Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T19:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T19:04:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:52.610Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:13:54Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T20:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T20:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:23:57.740Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:02.894Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:08.055Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-11-27T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:13.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:18.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 216,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:23.670Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n--- \n[How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/)\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the US Senate after the 2022 election?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the US Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:34.262Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 703,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:39.466Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:45.289Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:50.901Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:24:56.080Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump flee the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\nI'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\nnotany replied,\n@Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n@notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.\nWill Trump flee the United States?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:01.373Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:06.607Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:11.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 232,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:17.222Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:22.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per [Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index)\nThe Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education (Literacy Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio at different levels and Net Attendance Ratio), and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.\n[The HDI of the world](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) has been increasing or stayed the same every year since its inception in 1990. However, according to the [World Bank](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-effect-new-data), the COVID-19 pandemic \"is likely to push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. [...] Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades.\" \nIn 2019, the HDI of the world was 0.731. The smallest change in a single year has been +0.000 (0.601 in 1992, 0.601 in 1993), and the largest change has been +0.007, which has occurred three times (0.601-0.608 1993-1994, 0.624-0.631 1997-1998, 0.669-0.676 2005-2006).\nWhat will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?\nThe question resolves according to the [Human Development Index](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) for 2020. If that site is down, the Metaculus admins have the discretion to choose a reliable source. The question resolves when the 2020 world HDI is first made publicly available, and resolves ambiguously if it is not made publicly available by 2023.\nThe Human Development Index for 2020 will almost definitely be on the 2021 Human Development Report, not the 2020 Human Development Report. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:27.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:32.876Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:38.089Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:43.224Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:48.465Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:54.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:37:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T21:33:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:25:59.290Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:04.497Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \">2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:09.650Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-11-10T15:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-11-10T15:19:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:14.822Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is \"Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur.\" As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030?\nWhat will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:20.074Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-27T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 US Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:25.390Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 561,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:30.585Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:35.806Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:41.166Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 780,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:46.553Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 491,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.\nWhat will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?\nWhen the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.\nAs of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131.\nIf the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:52.667Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-01T07:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:43:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:26:57.865Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:03.064Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:08.319Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:13.606Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_%28trader%29) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:18.788Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:23.965Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:29.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:35.150Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:40.416Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:45.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:50.812Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate/)\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9079/democrats-in-house-of-representatives-in-2022/)\nIn 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:27:56.652Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 476,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:01.818Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:07.148Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:12.433Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:17.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-08T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-05T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:28.067Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:39.060Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:44.218Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:49.360Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:54.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:28:59.846Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 209,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:04.952Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:10.251Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 323,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:15.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 249,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:20.686Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:26.906Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:32.094Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:38.024Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:43.194Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 265,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:53.561Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:29:59.696Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 282,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:04.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:10.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:15.253Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:20.438Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-15T22:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:25.594Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-14T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:30.733Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-14T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nAlphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/). \nIn case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class A (ticker $GOOGL).\nPrices are are to be adjusted from Q4 2026 prices to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn case Alphabet Inc. is no longer a publicly traded company on 2026-12-14, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:41.310Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-11T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services][https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm()](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm%28%29)\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:46.580Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2026. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:51.773Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:30:56.940Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 201,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:02.218Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 265,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://%28https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/%29)], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://%28https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/%29).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:08.247Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:13.422Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\nCIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that:\n\"The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.\"\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022.\nA question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:18.651Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T21:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T20:19:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:24.685Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:29.802Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:35.024Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before January 1, 2026, then this question resolves as \">January 1, 2026\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:40.238Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T11:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:45.441Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:50.914Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:31:56.199Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?\nThis will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.\nIf the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:01.346Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-27T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:06.634Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:11.869Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 265,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:17.971Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 326,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:23.259Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T01:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:28.404Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:33.808Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:38.970Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-12-31T22:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T22:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:44.094Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:49.206Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:54.367Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nBetween 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). \nMovements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers.\nHow many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:32:59.511Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:04.710Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. \nHealth-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. \nWhile unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.\nHow many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:09.890Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:31:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:31:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between black and white people according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:15.267Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. \nWith the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question.\nHow much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:20.438Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T22:47:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_%28United_States%29), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars.\nWhile beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the win in the presidential election in 2020, Medicare is still estimated to [run out of proper funding](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/health/medicare-and-medicaid/2012-05/The-Future-Of-Medicare.pdf) for all expected expenses by 2024. \nWith an aging population in the US, the amount of money dedicated to health insurance, especially during the period of time during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, will need to increase to fully cover the growing number of health expenses. Since 2017, the amount of money dedicated to Medicare has already increased by approximately $300 billion dollars.\nWhat percentage of the federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:25.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:54:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nMetaculus predicts that we will cross the [2 degree Celsius threshold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/) for climate change by 2043. After the US’s [separation from the Paris Agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930312701/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement) this year in 2020, the federal government allocated [0.8% of their total budget](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) to protecting the environment and our natural resources, at a total value of only $77 billion dollars. In 2017, while the US still remained in the Paris Agreement, the budget represented 1% of the total, still an extremely small value in comparison to federal spending on a number of other significant issues. \nHow much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:30.833Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:35.981Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:41.094Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:46.965Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 391,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:52.126Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:33:57.327Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:02.466Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\n2 August clarification: This question will resolve as the date when a credible media report stating that the >53.3m immunity threshold has been reached is published, rather than the date when this threshold is reached.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:08.022Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 755,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-27T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:13.268Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:18.422Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:23.573Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:28.966Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 201,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:39.471Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:44.701Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:34:55.854Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:01.056Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:06.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:11.355Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&view=map&year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:16.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T01:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-02T02:50:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:21.671Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:26.826Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:31.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:37.086Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:43.160Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nWill the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:48.432Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 502,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:53.706Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T08:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:35:58.898Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:04.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:10.298Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 322,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:15.425Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:20.562Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:25.706Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:30.928Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:36.078Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:41.228Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:46.403Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:52.405Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:36:57.586Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:02.833Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:07.969Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:13.390Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 407,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:18.778Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:24.554Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:29.746Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:34.865Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:40.018Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:45.227Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:50.464Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:37:55.747Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:00.965Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 310,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:06.283Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question:\n---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) \nEconomic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:\nWhat will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?\nThis resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as\nthis question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:11.522Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:16.803Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 582,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:22.738Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 636,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-28T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:27.923Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-07-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-05T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict <18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if <18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:33.056Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-03T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:38.353Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1052,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:43.797Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 453,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:49.293Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 750,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf there is no Taco Bell in Westfield or the minimum wage in that area is greater than the federal minimum wage at the time of the resolution of this question, the closest Taco Bell will be selected where the federal minimum wage is in effect.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-31 removed:\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-31 added :\nIf there is no Taco Bell in Westfield or the minimum wage in that area is greater than the federal minimum wage at the time of the resolution of this question, the closest Taco Bell will be selected where the federal minimum wage is in effect.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:54.586Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 245,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:38:59.912Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will zettascale computing be achieved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:05.042Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-01-02T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-04T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:10.610Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on January 2, 2023.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on January 1, 2023, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:15.982Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 467,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-02T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:21.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Despite widespread rumors, Bill Gates, formerly the richest man in the world, has yet to announce a program to implant brain-computer interfaces in the world population. [Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-id2020/) rated the following claim false:\nBill Gates ... seeks to \"microchip\" the world population\nHowever, this could easily change. Elon Musk, the world's richest man as of January 2021, has founded Neuralink, which aims to ultimately implant brain-computer interfaces in humans and has already [implanted a brain-computer interface in a pig](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53956683):\nElon Musk has unveiled a pig called Gertrude with a coin-sized computer chip in her brain to demonstrate his ambitious plans to create a working brain-to-machine interface.\nWill Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible reports say that Bill Gates (or the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, or any other foudation of which he is the founder) owns a stake in any company or non-profit, or made a grant to any company, non-profit, or researcher, that has implanted a brain-computer interface in at least one person before the resolution date.\nIf the company in question was public prior to Gates obtaining a stake in it, then he must own at least 1% of the company and a minimum of $10 million for this to resolve positively. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:31.603Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-22T12:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T13:17:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:36.794Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK hold its next general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:42.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:47.889Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of January 1, 2021, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).\nWhen will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?\nThis question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.\nIf it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.\nIf it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make this data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:53.039Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:39:58.202Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:03.440Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:08.893Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:14.080Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:20.497Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:25.840Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 423,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-20T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_%28columnist%29) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:30.998Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:36.124Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T17:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:34:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:42.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6424/substack-to-join-cancel-culture/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly. They're known for refusing to remove contentious content, as a [recent TechCrunch article](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/03/substack-doubles-down-on-uncensored-free-speech-with-acquisition-of-letter/) explains,\nAs Substack grew, writers left jobs at BuzzFeed and the New York Times, lured by pay raises and cautious optimism. But as more writers came forward as part of the Substack Pro program, Substack was criticized for subsidizing anti-trans rhetoric, since some of these writers used their newsletters to share such views. Substack admits it’s not entirely apolitical, but the choices of which writers to subsidize, and its decision to use only lightweight moderation tactics, are a political choice in an era of the internet when content moderation has a tangible effect on global politics. Some writers even chose to leave the platform, as a result.\nWill Substack cancel anyone before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Substack cancels an account, or suspends or deletes any post, of a Substack author with at least 100 subscribers, free or paid, for a reason which is not in their Terms of Use at the time the question opens (an archive of which can be found [here](https://archive.is/Jabkj)).\nNegative resolution will be determined if, according to admin discretion, no one in the Metaculus community was able to find a credible example of Substack cancelling anyone in the way previously described.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:47.512Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-27T17:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:48:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6427/will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire. \nAndrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. \nDespite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. \nThe market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). \nSky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to \"reach\" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing. \nWill GB News be broadcasting in 2025?\nGB News will be deemed to be broadcasting if a TV station with the brand of \"GB News\" airs more than six hours of content per day over the Freeview network beyond January 1 2025. \nThe ownership of the channel should not be deemed relevant. If the brand changes, it will deemed to exist - so long as the station continues to broadcast and so long as its name, as listed on the Freeview electronic programme guide (EPG), still has the words \"GB News\" in the channel title.\nThe authoritative version of the EPG will be the standard text-only version of the EPG accessible to British Freeview viewers by pressing the programme guide button. There is an [online version](https://www.freeview.co.uk/tv-guide) - which is the same, but it currently uses graphics in place of channel names, which might create ambiguity on the naming question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:52.697Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:40:58.086Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:03.293Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:08.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 361,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:13.963Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 406,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6448/two-states-ban-human-driven-vehicles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is objectively demonstrated that humans are not very good or very safe drivers. [According to the NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2019-fatality-data-traffic-deaths-2020-q2-projections), there were 36,096 deaths due to motor vehicle crashes in the USA in 2019. The vast majority of fatality-causing crashes were substantially attributable to human driver error.\nFurther, common human driving heuristics and competency levels significantly limit the level of efficiency that can be achieved on the roadway. In particular, [human driven traffic does not interact with itself optimally](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170510095703.htm), and for safety purposes, legal speed limits are artificially capped well below the level of vehicle performance. There is some consideration that autonomous vehicles may be able to safely travel [much faster](https://www.inverse.com/article/28110-self-driving-car-speed-future). \nFor these reasons and more, it is plausible that at some point, humans will be generally or entirely legally disallowed from driving a car on public roads.\nWhen will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?\nThis question will resolve when at least two US states concurrently have in place a ban of most or all human driving on public roads. \nThe ban must be a matter of law or equivalent state authority or the question will not resolve.\nA federal ban qualifies the same as if two US states outlaw human driving.\nQualifying states are the current 50 US states, or future equivalents, plus any additional future states with equivalent status of any of the present 50 states. \nHuman driving is considered to be the operation of a car or motorcycle by a human where the human substantially directs the vehicle's motion by any means that involve a human brain substantially carrying out the processing required for meaningful direction of the vehicle's motion.\nAlthough the question implies that AI would supplant human driving in the event of such a ban, this is not necessary for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:19.172Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any currency zone stop printing cash currency?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6449/date-any-country-retires-cash-currency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "previous question on metaculus:\n---[When will any country stop using cash currency? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/) \nWhile apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. \nElectronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smartphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_%28payment%29) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).\nBut there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.\nMany countries are currently researching or developing digital currencies, including [South Korea](https://www.pymnts.com/digital-payments/2021/south-korea-looks-for-tech-partner-to-launch-digital-won/), [China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_renminbi), [Sweden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_krona#The_e-krona), and members of the [Eurozone](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/digital_euro/html/index.en.html), among [others](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bank_digital_currency). Venezuela has issued the [Petro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_%28cryptocurrency%29) since 2018, and El Salvador [will accept bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_Law) in 2021, though both countries still use cash currencies as well.\nWhen will any currency zone stop printing cash currency?\nResolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.\nIf there is a transition period where cash is officially illegal but can be exchanged to digital via government programs, this question will resolve at the beginning of such period.\nIn the case of government dysfunction or collapse where a curency is no longer being printed, or where a cash currency is no longer printed and replaced with a another cash currency, such cases will not resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:24.741Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-09-01T21:00:51.278000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:30.735Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:35.901Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:41.170Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:46.340Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:51.707Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:41:56.854Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:02.100Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:07.322Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve positively if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) party recieves the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29) in the [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election). It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:13.378Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 442,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:18.670Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:23.957Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:29.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:34.408Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822%2815%2900420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:39.666Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:44.982Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:50.175Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:42:55.414Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:00.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:05.976Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 314,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:11.188Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:16.325Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:21.586Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:26.717Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:32.594Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:37.748Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:42.894Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:48.014Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T12:50:36Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-17T12:50:36Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:53.177Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:43:58.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:03.522Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:08.721Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:13.879Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:19.019Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:24.218Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:29.330Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:34.540Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:39.737Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:44.866Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:50.006Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:44:55.208Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:00.355Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:06.462Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:11.763Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:16.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \">\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:22.153Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:27.474Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:32.856Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:38.011Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:43.186Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:48.325Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:53.473Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:45:58.625Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:03.832Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:09.005Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:14.201Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:19.407Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:25.482Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:30.660Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:35.877Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:41.044Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:46.278Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:51.486Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:46:56.614Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:01.796Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:06.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[PHOSP](https://phosp.org/about/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:12.428Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:17.583Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 201,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:22.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:28.112Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:33.253Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:38.478Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T18:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:43.870Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6602/two-more-tbc-transit-systems--2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit projected created by The Boring Company using Tesla Motors vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers with testing using automated systems [planned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/) later on in 2021. Determination of autonomous operation will use criteria similar to this [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/).\nThe LVCC project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. This question will determine if such a feat is being replicated.\nWill TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop <2030?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2030, The Boring Company page indicates two autonomous transit system projects completed outside the Las Vegas Metro area with more than 15 miles each of Tunnels. Each system must demonstrate carrying more than 1000 passengers per day and operate autonomously for over 30 days.\nOperation should be supported by press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Washington Post or another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) posted to the discussion section below. If no such articles are posted, this question resolves as no.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:49.069Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:54.549Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6604/us-hyperinflation-in-any-year-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hyperinflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) events have happened before in a number of countries.\nWill annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?\nWill the CPI-U increase by 100% in any year before 2050?\nWe will prefer to resolve using the CPI-U. If the BLS stops reporting the exact CPI-U metric but continues reporting a very similar measure of inflation, and it is similar enough as deemed by the mods, then that will be used. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:47:59.797Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:10.746Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:16.065Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:21.278Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:26.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:31.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:36.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first use of accurate lie detection in court case occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6619/first-accurate-lie-detection-in-court-case/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [May 2021 study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03506-2) indicates continued progress in the field of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI):\nBrain-computer interfaces (BCIs) can restore communication to people who have lost the ability to move or speak. To date, a major focus of BCI research has been on restoring gross motor skills, such as reaching and grasping or point-and-click typing with a 2D computer cursor. However, rapid sequences of highly dexterous behaviors, such as handwriting or touch typing, might enable faster communication rates. Here, we demonstrate an intracortical BCI that can decode imagined handwriting movements from neural activity in motor cortex and translate it to text in real-time, using a novel recurrent neural network decoding approach. With this BCI, our study participant (whose hand was paralyzed) achieved typing speeds that exceed those of any other BCI yet reported: 90 characters per minute at >99% accuracy with a general-purpose autocorrect. These speeds are comparable to able-bodied smartphone typing speeds in our participant’s age group (115 characters per minute)8 and significantly close the gap between BCI-enabled typing and able-bodied typing rates. Finally, new theoretical considerations explain why temporally complex movements, such as handwriting, may be fundamentally easier to decode than point-to-point movements. Our results open a new approach for BCIs and demonstrate the feasibility of accurately decoding rapid, dexterous movements years after paralysis.\nWhile such technology can be used to restore lost functionality, it can also probably be used for [lie detection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie_detection). [We have previously seen (2017)](https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006633) how machines were able to recreate imagined shapes, which suggests one could also ask people to imagine the crime scene or crime suspect for visual representation. Traditional lie detectors ([polygraphs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polygraph)) are not very accurate, though they have limited utility. However, it seems possible with modern neuroscience to reach very high accuracy, if the subject is willing to cooperate accordingly, or maybe even if they are not.\nWhen will the first use of accurate lie detection in court case happen?\n---The technology must be accurate with a credible study showing at least 95% AUC (area under curve). Here \"credible\" means not obviously spurious as judged by the site admins. A \"study\" means a publicly readable text that describes a study of this technology. It can be a preprint (i.e., not formally reviewed and published by an academic journal). If they are in doubt, they may consult neuroscience experts. \n---The technology must be used in a legal case in a developed country ([HDI > .80](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index), this currently excludes China at 0.761). The direction of the evidence does not matter, as long as it is seriously considered by the court. \n---The technology must not be discredited within three years of first being used in a legal case in a developed country — in this case, being discredited entails at least one of the following: (1) a peer-reviewed paper saying the original study showing at least 95% AUC was incorrect; (2) the developers of the technology withdrawing use of it; (3) the court system that first used the technology disallowing further use of it for at least some period of time. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:41.988Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:47.144Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:52.407Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:48:57.556Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:02.762Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:08.003Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:13.391Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 169,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:23.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:29.616Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Assuming that the Green Party joins the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6652/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-greens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One goal of [the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen platform for the 2021 federal German elections](https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/documents/20200125_Grundsatzprogramm.pdf), is decarbonization of the German economy.\nThe transition to 100 percent renewable energies and the phase-out of fossil gas, oil and coal are the key tasks of climate protection. Rapid and consistent decarbonization also modernizes the economy and industry, thus securing social prosperity and jobs. To decarbonize all economic processes, renewable energies must be massively expanded and efficiently and economically linked between the electricity, heating, transport, industry and agriculture sectors via grids, storage facilities and renewable energy sources.\nAssuming that the Green Party joins the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025?\nIf Bündnis 90/Die Grünen are not part of the coalition forming the German federal government or no new government has been formed successfully until December 31st, 2021, the question resolves ambiguous. Bündnis 90/Die Grünen are assumed to be part of the governing coalition if at least one [member of the cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/federal-government/cabinet) is member of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.\nCO2 emissions per capita in Germany in 2025 will be resolved according to the [ Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en) or a similar reliable source.\nRelated questions: - [CO2 emissions in Germany in 2025 (Greens not in government)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6653/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-non-greens/) - [If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/) - [If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:34.792Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Assuming that the Green Party does not join the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6653/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-non-greens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One goal of [the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen platform for the 2021 federal German elections](https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/documents/20200125_Grundsatzprogramm.pdf), is decarbonization of the German economy.\nThe transition to 100 percent renewable energies and the phase-out of fossil gas, oil and coal are the key tasks of climate protection. Rapid and consistent decarbonization also modernizes the economy and industry, thus securing social prosperity and jobs. To decarbonize all economic processes, renewable energies must be massively expanded and efficiently and economically linked between the electricity, heating, transport, industry and agriculture sectors via grids, storage facilities and renewable energy sources.\nAssuming that the Green Party does not join the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025?\nIf Bündnis 90/Die Grünen are not part of the coalition forming the German federal government or no new government has been formed successfully until December 31st, 2021, the question resolves ambiguous. Bündnis 90/Die Grünen are assumed to be part of the governing coalition if at least one [member of the cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/federal-government/cabinet) is member of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.\nCO2 emissions per capita in Germany in 2025 will be resolved according to the [ Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en) or a similar reliable source.\nRelated questions:\n---[CO2 emissions in Germany in 2025 (Greens in government)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6652/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-greens/) \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/) \n---[If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:39.977Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:45.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:50.436Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-12T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6662/date-earth-functional-satellites-exceed-5000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As launch costs fall, access to space has become much less expensive. According to the [Union of Concerned Scientists](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database), the number of satellites in Earth orbit is currently is projected to be 3,373 by the end of the year. When will the number of satellites in Earth orbit exceed 5,000?\nWhen will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?\nThis question will close on the date that the UCSUSA publishes a database listing more than 5000 satellites in orbit which were launched before the present time.\nThe question will resolve to the day of the launch of the spacecraft which contains the 5001st satellite.\nIn the case that the [Union of Concerned Scientists website](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database) ceases to publish its database, the question will be closed and will resolve ambiguously.\n--- \nSatellite launch times are UTC.\n--- \nThe UCSUSA database includes satellites which are predicted to launch, so it is necessary to specify that these launches must have actually occurred in order to be relevant.\n--- \nSatellites are counted by their number of design components, so a satellite which breaks apart in orbit only counts as one object unless the breakup was a maneuver planned at satellite launch. A booster stage which remains in orbit would \n--- \nSatellites must be artificial objects in Earth orbit. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:49:55.630Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T20:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:00.858Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:06.090Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 218,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:12.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:17.395Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:22.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nEDIT 4 Jan 2021: The rocket does not need to return safely back to the testing facility on Earth to achieve positive resolution. \nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:27.814Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T19:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:43:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:32.955Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Continental European synchronous area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe) is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, [ENTSO-E](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/) [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.\nOn January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an [extensive incident](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/02/26/acer-and-entso-e-investigate-the-8-january-electricity-system-separation/). It was reported as a close call to a \"massive blackout\" in Europe by some ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid)).\nPrevious time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the [2006 European blackout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.\nThere also has been notable [wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages), most recently in [Texas, 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis)\nIn 2003, [there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout).\nIn 2015, [there was a large blackout in Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-power-idUSKBN0MR0S420150331), causing split from CE [pdf](https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/SOC%20documents/Regional_Groups_Continental_Europe/20150921_Black_Out_Report_v10_w.pdf)\n[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E [news](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/01/15/system-separation-in-the-continental-europe-synchronous-area-on-8-january-2021-update/), [annual report](https://annualreport2019.entsoe.eu/) and [statistical factsheets](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/statistics-and-data/#statistical-factsheet)\nWill there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?\nPositive resolution if there is a blackout in more than one country in Continental European Area, affecting total of more than 10 million people for more than 1 hour before 2023-01-01 in relevant timezones.\nAccording to ENTSO-E, [Regional Group](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/system-operations/) for Continental synchronous area currently includes Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Nederland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey (observer member).\nAppropriate evidence for resolution criteria having been met include news reports by at least two news agencies such as Reuters, AFP, and AP, preferably supported by later report(s) by ENTSOE [https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/](https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/). To resolve ambiguities about details, reports from news agencies or national broadcasters from affected countries may also be included.\nI did not find any standard definition for massive blackout. Because the context is predisposed to cascading power outages in several countries in the area, this question requires threshold of affecting more than one country, more than 10 million people, and for over 1 hour.\nFor example, the 2003 Italy blackout is a borderline case but would resolve yes, as a part of Geneva canton in Switzerland was affected. Turkey 2015 would not, as it affected people in only one country.\nIf there are radical changes in the ENTSO-E Continental Europe area membership that would otherwise render question ambiguous, one can use for resolution any synchronous grid involving more than 50% of the currently participating countries. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:38.191Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-15T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space at the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_%28astrodynamics%29). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:43.359Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:48.490Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:53.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:50:59.925Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_%28spacecraft%29) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:05.091Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:10.272Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the prize pool of an esport tournament be greater than any other sport tournament in that year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6708/esport-tournament-has-more-money-than-sport/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2021, the prize pools of the biggest esport tournaments are becoming quite significant. As an example, the 2019 Fortnite WorldCup prize pool exceeded $40 millions.\nThe prize pool of the yet to come \"Dota 2 Worldcup\", also known as The International, will inevably superseed these $40 millions (see [the Dota 2 Prize Pool Tracker](https://dota2.prizetrac.kr/international10)).\nWhile these figures are no where near the [$800 million](https://www.statista.com/statistics/328497/fifa-world-cup-prize-money/#:~:text=The%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20is,Cup%20in%20Brazil%20in%202014) of the 2018 FIFA World Cup, the already big growth of the esport market is accelerating.\nAs esport is potentially more competitive than sport (as anyone from anywhere is supposedly able to compete), it is imaginable that an esport competition will eventually have a bigger prize pool than any sport competition.\nWhen will the prize pool of an esport tournament be greater than any other sport tournament in that year?\nThis question will resolve on the date that a qualifying tournament begins playing. It will close retroactively 1 year prior to this date.\nFigures for sizes of prize pools will come from the authorities administering the tournament. This question tracks the prize money awarded among all contestants, not merely the top prize for the top contestant.\nThe prize pool of an esport tournament need not be greater than all other prize pools combined, it only needs to be greater than the second largest prize pool.\nA competition is considered an \"esport\" if most credible media describe it as such. If this is ambiguous, Metaculus Admins may issue a judgement at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:15.441Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\nSeasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\nProponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\nNo one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\nAs an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\nThe first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.\nWill there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:20.584Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:25.715Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\n30 October 2021 clarification: Resolution text changed from\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\" \nto\n\"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:31.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:36.325Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 249,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:41.784Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 390,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:47.127Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 347,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:53.071Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:51:58.210Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:03.443Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:08.631Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T20:54:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:13.806Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:18.988Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-risk-map.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\n14 August clarification: this question asks about when the NYT COVID-19 tracker will assess the risk for unvaccinated people in NYC to be \"low\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:24.338Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 382,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:29.524Z",
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Prince Henry of Wales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Harry,_Duke_of_Sussex) and [Rachel Meghan Markle](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meghan,_Duchess_of_Sussex) are members of the [British royal family](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_royal_family) and the current [Duke and Duchess of Sussex](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Sussex). They were married in 2018.\nWill the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?\nThis question resolves according to confirmed news that either of the partners have filed for divorce.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:34.812Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold for, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:40.097Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:51.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6812/first-autonomous-motorcycle-to-be-sold-in-usa/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Autonomous motorcycles have [already been built](https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0284901EN/bmw-motorrad-presents-autonomous-driving-bmw-r-1200-gs-outlook-on-the-future-of-motorcycle-safety-and-technology-in-miramas?language=en). Yamaha has even made an [autonomous racing motorcycle](https://global.yamaha-motor.com/design_technology/technology/motobot/) controlled by its own robotic rider. Other manufacturers have released [motorcycles with rider assist technology that could be used in future autonomous vehicles](https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/honda-introduces-riding-assist-e-self-balancing-electric-motorcycle/).\nCould there be a market for such vehicles? The market for autonomous vehicles globally in 2019 reached [$54 billion](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/autonomous-vehicle-market). Road-legal motorcycle sales in the USA in 2019 surpassed [300,000 units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/252264/us-motorcycle-salesin-units-by-type/). With these data, the future possibility of an autonomous motorcycle market in the USA can be taken seriously.\nWhen will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?\nThis question resolves positive when a road-legal motorcycle with autonomous driving capability and intended to carry at least one human is able to be purchased in the United States.\nAutonomous driving capability is defined as the ability of the motorcycle to do the following without any rider intervention on the controls:\n1) Accelerate from a stop and reach a speed of at least 60 mph. If necessary, the rider is allowed to move their feet from the motorcycle to the ground and vice versa in order to stay upright at a stop.\n2) Decelerate from at least 60 mph to a complete stop.\n3) Lateral acceleration of at least .5G or approximately 27* of lean angle measured from the contact patch through the center of mass of bike and rider, under good conditions. \n4) Recognize and obey traffic control devices well enough to conduct a trip of at least 5 miles consisting of at least one full stop, one right turn, one left turn, and a top speed of at least 45 mph. \nMotorcycle is a two wheeled motorized vehicle. Road-legal means the vehicle is authorized by all relevant authorities the full use of all public roads and highways of at least one US state.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:52:56.201Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-10T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:01.393Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:06.622Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:11.766Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:17.053Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:22.251Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:27.452Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6839/first-openly-furry-us-official/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Furries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furry_fandom) are a subculture interested in anthropomorphic animal characters with human personalities and characteristics. Furries form a diverse group, their common interests having several dimensions, which include artistic and sexual preferences, as well as self-image and identity aspects.\nIn 2017, [a councilman in Connecticut resigned](https://www.reddit.com/r/DeFranco/comments/6z5pec/councilman_resigning_after_secret_furry_life/) after being outed as a furry. As of this writing, no openly furry politician holds an office in US government. \nWhen will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office?\nThis question resolves when the first openly furry person is elected to any of the following offices:\n---US Congress \n---US President or Vice President \n---Any US State Legislature \n---Any US State Governorship (including Lieutenant Governors [in those states where the Lieutenant Governor is elected](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_current_United_States_lieutenant_governors) by popular vote) \nA politician is considered to be \"openly furry\" if credible media reports indicate they self-identify as such before being elected. They may presently identify as a furry, or may have been a furry in the past (without apologizing or renouncing such an identity).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:32.810Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-11-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:38.092Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:49.216Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:54.481Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tennis has appeared the Olympics [on-and-off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_Summer_Olympics) throughout Olympic history. It was most recently added to the program as a full sport in 1988.\nTennis has appeared 18 times since the start of the modern games in 1896.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will tennis remain part of the Olympics in 2044?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the Tennis be part of the Olympics in 2044?\nThis question resolves positive if there is a Tennis event in the 2044 Summer Olympic programme.\nIf Tennis is a demonstration sport, this resolves positive. If there is no 2044 Summer Olympics, this question resolves based on the Summer Olympics closest in time to 2044-08-01. If there is no Summer Olympics within a 10 years either side, it resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:53:59.622Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:05.058Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Jannik Sinner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner) is an Italian professional tennis player. He is current the youngest tennis player in the top 10 based on Tennis Abstract's [Elo rankings](http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html)\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Who will be the first man born in the 2000s to win a Slam?\". Sinner was picked out as being most likely to win. To operationalise this, we ask what his chances are.\nWill Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam?\nResolves positive if Jannik Sinner is the first male player born after the millennium to win a tennis Grand Slam. (One of Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open).\nResolves negative if a player other than Jannik Sinner born after the millennium wins a tennis Grand Slam before Sinner.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nThis question closes retroactively day before the beginning of the tournament which triggers resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:10.264Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6888/10-grand-slam-winner/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.\nAs of writing there are [8 players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Grand_Slam_men%27s_singles_champions#Most_Grand_Slam_singles_titles) who have won 10 of these tournaments:\n---Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal: 20 \n---Novak Djokovic: 18 \n---Pete Sampras: 16 \n---Roy Emerson: 12 \n---Rod Laver, Björn Borg: 11 \n---Bill Tilden: 10 \nThree of the players at the top of this list are still active today (Federer, Nadal and Djokovic). They are widely considered the greatest of all time. \nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"In what year will the next man win his 10th Slam title?\". The answer given was \"2042\".\nWhen will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title?\nThis question will resolve based on credible media reports, on the date of the player's final tournament win.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:15.490Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2071-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.\nHowever, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?\". The answer given was \"Probably not\" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).\nWill Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?\nThis question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.\nThis question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:20.669Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6890/all-time-tennis-slam-record-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.\nCurrently 2 players have won 20 Grand Slams (Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal). This question asks what will this record be in 2050?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"What will the all-time Slam singles title record be for men in 2050?\". The answer given was \"22 - Djokovic, Nadal and Sinner\".\nIn 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men?\nThis question will resolve according to what the record number of slam victories are in 2050. If the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn order to avoid \"spiky\" predictions, we will take the number of slams and add N(0, 0.5) randomly generated by an admin.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:25.936Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6891/migrant-deaths-in-the-mediterranean-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Thousands of migrants and refugees die or go missing every year in the Mediterranean when trying to reach European soil [according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees](https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean).\nHow many migrants will die or go missing in the Mediterranean in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of people \"Dead and missing\" in 2022 according to [UNHCR data](https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:31.057Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the last US casino close?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6893/date-when-the-last-us-casino-will-close/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Casinos are currently legal in some (Indian reservations, Nevada) but not most parts of the US.\nWhen will the last US casino close?\nIf and when the last legal casino in the US closes, the question will resolve. Casinos on Indian reservations count for purposes of this question.\nIf future laws in part or all of the US change to make the legality of casinos ambiguous and the last operating casino is closed and found to be illegal by an act of a court, then for purposes of this question, the casino will be considered to have been legal up until the date on which the court decision is made. Retroactive court decisions will not be applied retroactively for purposes of this question.\nThis question has an upper decision boundary of New Years Day, 2300. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:36.217Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6903/wta--atp-merger/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:\nJust wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men’s and women’s tennis to be united and come together as one?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if both men and women play as part of one tour with one tour organiser. It will still resolve positive if not all tournaments are mixed (ie if some currently all-female or all-male tournaments are part of the tour, that doesn't trigger negative resolution as long as the overarching tour organiser is one body)\nThis question resolves negatively if men and women play as part of two separate tours on the basis of gender.\nIn the event that it is unclear (eg the tennis tour fractures into multiple tours (WTA, ATP, mixed tour)) we will ask [Jeff Sackmann's](http://www.tennisabstract.com/) opinion and resolve on the basis of that. (In the event he says it's unclear / is uncontactable / unwilling to decided it resolves ambiguous)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:42.028Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:47.382Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 337,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:54:57.666Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6938/when-will-there-be-a-50b-parameter-dall-e/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "OpenAI's [DALL-E](https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/) was revealed on Jan 5 2021. It is a transformer trained on a multimodal dataset including text and images. It has 12 billion parameters.\nThe more famous GPT-3 has essentially the same architecture, but was trained only on text, and has 175 billion parameters.\nWhen will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?\nThe date this question is interested in is the date the existence of the model becomes publicly known. Resolution by credible media report.\n(As an aside, I'd love to make the question be about when the model is actually built, rather than when it is known of, but that's a lot harder to resolve because OpenAI typically doesn't reveal training completion dates.)\nHere is some more detail on what \"something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger\" means:\n--- \nThe model must be trained on images and text, though it can also be trained on other things\n--- \nThe model must be able to generate images given text descriptions, or images given text+images.\n--- \nThe model must have at least 50 billion parameters. Mixture-of-Experts models don't count; they instead should be thought of as a group of several smaller models.\nThis question closes retroactively the day before the model's existence first becomes known, in the sense described above.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:02.882Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-28T08:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-28T08:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6939/will-gpt-3-scaling-plateau-in--3-ooms/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Consider figure 15 from [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.14701.pdf#page=18).\nSome people (arguably the authors of this paper) predict that as we scale models past GPT-3's size (the 10^11 parameter learning curve, models with parameter count X trained on X elapsed tokens will score close to the L(D) line at X elapsed tokens.\nWe are interested in whether instead the trendline will \"plateau\" or at least be substantially slower than the line L(D) by the end of the next 3 orders of magnitude of parameter count. For the sake of specificity, let's say substantially slower = less than half as steep as L(D) on this graph.\nIf and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?\nThis question resolves positively if the relevant experiment is done and reported (extending this graph, or providing equivalent data) and the slope of the learning curve for the 10^14 parameter model around 10^14 data points (Say, from 10^12 to 10^14) is less than half as steep as the slope of L(D). It resolves negatively if instead the slope is at least half as steep as L(D).\nThis question also resolves positively (or negatively) if it becomes uncontroversial what would have happened if the experiment had been done. For example, maybe other experiments will provide much more evidence about neural net scaling trends in general, such that it will be easy to calculate what would happen with this one in particular.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if by 2050 no one has performed the experiment AND there is no consensus about what would have happened if someone had.\nThe Metaculus moderators are the judge of final resort for determining whether and how to resolve this question.\nFor more context, see the comment threads below (Search for \"It's a big deal.\")\nIt is important that the data used to extend the graph be of similar quality. Obviously if we just threw in 10^14 tokens of basic arithmetic problems, the model would get good at basic arithmetic but not at anything else, and it's unclear whether the result would be on-trend or not. Ideally we'd have 10e14 tokens of diverse internet text, scanned books, chat logs, emails, etc. If this experiment gets done with different-quality data, the question becomes whether it gives us enough evidence to uncontroversial predict what would have happened if we had done it with similar-quality data. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:08.136Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2037-02-23T11:37:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:37:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "I'm interested in whether the USA will be involved in a major hot war in the next decade. I wasn't satisfied with the resolution criteria of other questions on this topic, so I created this one.\nBy 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?\nFor purposes of this question, deaths due to bioweapons, electricity grid failures, etc. don't count. Roughly, we are interested in \"deaths due to kinetic attacks.\" The 9/11 attacks count because ramming planes into buildings to make them collapse is kinetic. Were someone to hack into the FDA and mess things up so as to delay vaccine approval, thereby causing tens of thousands of deaths, that would not count.\nThe attackers don't need to be the military of a nation-state; terrorist groups count and coalitions/alliances also count.\nHowever, the attackers need to be \"part of the same team\" in some sense. Otherwise, this would resolve positive simply in virtue of the US annual homicide rate! If there were a series of race riots, insurrections, or acts of domestic terrorism linked together under one banner (e.g. white supremacy, antigovernment, or antipolice) that would count.\nYes, this means that (contrary to what the headline question would suggest) if the USA gets involved in several independent small-scale wars, the US casualties from which total more than 10,000 in a year, that would not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:13.349Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T14:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On March 19th, 2020, [New Zealand closed their border to the vast majority of international travel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/new-zealand-borders-to-stay-closed-until-citizens-are-vaccinated-and-protected), including from tourists on a Vistor Visa.\nAlong with other measures, this strategy has proved remarkably successul for limiting exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic, with only [2,482 cases and 24 deaths](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) attributed to COVID-19 by March 2021.\nIt is unclear when New Zealand will reintroduce leasure travel. [Prime Minister Ardern is quoted](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/new-zealand-borders-to-stay-closed-until-citizens-are-vaccinated-and-protected) to have said she would not re-open the border until New Zealander's are \"vaccinated and protected\".\nWhen will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to New Zealand, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which New Zealand has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave New Zealand.\nResolution will be based on [the New Zealand immigration website](https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:18.570Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-07T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator [recently suggested](https://web.archive.org/web/20210329024002/https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1376161115244204037):\n\"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there’s a very good chance the victory isn’t certified\"\nElection certification is the process in which states [confirm the election results](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/13/how-election-certification-works-when-will-2020-be-certified/) and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 [ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020) (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a [\"safe harbor\" deadline](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/942288226/bidens-victory-cemented-as-states-reach-deadline-for-certifying-vote-tallies) by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The \"safe harbor\" deadline is set by [3 U.S. Code § 5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/5) and [3 U.S. Code § 7](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/7) which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.\nIn the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?\nThe question will resolve positively if any state (or DC) does not certify their results by the \"safe harbor\" deadline. The \"safe harbor\" deadline for the 2024 presidential election will be December 10th.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:23.861Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-02T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_%28in_thousands%29).\nWill an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?\nResolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:29.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:34.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 455,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-29T08:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:40.127Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again.\nBesides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028.\nWhen will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?\nThis question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.\nIn line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:45.330Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6963/transplants-without-immunosuppressants/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their lives in order to avoid organ rejection. This dependence on drugs is of course a sad and significant inconvenience to the patients. A number of laboratories around the world are working to eliminate the necessity of them, and they have made progress by for example using bone marrow from the donor (which was shown to decrease the dose of drugs needed).\nWhen will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?\nThis question will resolve when the first organ transplant is successfully performed without the need for any immunosuppressants.\nFor this question, any transplant of the following organs shall count: skin, cornea, uterus, kidney, liver, lung, heart, pancreas, intestine, stomach, testis, penis, thymus.\nTransplants from twins or clones of the patient (which have occurred since 1954) are not included for this question. A genetically modified organ, grown in an animal or artificial environment shall be allowed.\nIn some instances, immunosuppressant drugs are not necessary (for instance, children under 12 months old). This question is meant to predict the discovery of a method which is >50% effective for >50% of the population (for any one or more organs). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:50.612Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-10T22:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-10T22:32:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:55:55.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 375,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:01.212Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 415,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\na drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_%28meal_replacement%29) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\nWill Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n1-- \nIssuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n2-- \nBanning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n---Soylent Powder/Drink \n---Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink \n---Queal Steady \n---Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink \n---ManaPowder/ManaDrink \n---Saturo Powder/Drink \nIf additional products are listed by [blendrunner.com](http://blendrunner.com) in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:06.438Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6969/when-will-gwp-exceed-1-quadrillion-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nETA 2021-07-08: In case of human extinction, the question is to resolve ambiguously.\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:11.631Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6973/nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.\nWill the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?\nResolution will be based on the official [NBA rulebook](https://official.nba.com/rule-no-1-court-dimensions-equipment/). If there is no official NBA rulebook available, we will defer to Wikipedia or any other general news source\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:16.825Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-20T07:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:33:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6975/2025-donations-to-cause-prioritization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf cause prioritization is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:22.023Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6976/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-meta-charities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf meta is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:27.172Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6977/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-animal-welfare/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf animal welfare is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:32.327Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6978/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-long-term-future/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf long-term future is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:37.461Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) in February 2019, a [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) (LM) with 1.5B parameters. In June 2020, they [publicized](https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/) an API to a [175B](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)-parameters LM. However, accessing it required filling a form (\"wait list\") to apply for their \"playground\" app or API.\nIf a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?\nTo resolve positively:\n--- \nThe model paper should be published on arXiv or on the ICLR, NeurIPS or ICML (top machine learning conferences) websites before the end of 2022.\n--- \nIt should at least be an API or graphical user interface with a language model option where you could send a text prompt and it returns text. If for instance there is a new Deep Learning model that uses 5x more compute than GPT-3 but does not provide any way to produce text from text, that does not count.\n--- \nYou should be able to get one API call/send one prompt by paying less than $1k from a publicly accessible source on the clear web that you can find using one google search. This rule is to force the accessibility to end-user.\n------ \nThe $1k limit insists on it being business-to-consumer and not business-to-business.\n------ \nThe public url from one google search dismisses any leak of the model where you would need to do extra steps yourself or have private information of a token/password protected url (cf. [DeepNude](https://www.theregister.com/2019/06/27/deepfake_nudes_app_pulled/) where you needed to do some hacking to get access to the model after the author removed it publicly)\nIf a model meets the first two resolution criteria by 2022, but the third criterion (about public access) is not met, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:42.783Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-30T20:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-06T21:27:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a performer win a 4th Oscar for Acting?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6982/date-next-performer-wins-4th-oscar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences](http://oscars.org) annually gives awards (known as The Oscars) for the cinematic arts. Among these awards are the categories for Acting or Best Performances.\nKatharine Hepburn holds the record of winning the most (4) competitive Oscars for performances. Ingrid Bergman, Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, and Daniel Day-Lewis have won 3 each. [Many performers have 2 such awards](http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/Help/Statistics?file=indexStats.html), including Mahershala Ali, who won two this century.\nWhen will another performer win a 4th competitive Oscar for acting or performance?\nThe question will resolve as the date on which, according to AMPAS, a performer will have won their fourth competitive performance award. The 4 awards may have been won at any time before or during the life of this question.\nTo resolve the question, any official AMPAS press release, announcement, or [listing](http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/Help/Statistics?file=indexStats.html) will suffice. In the event of unclarity, a credible statement by an AMPAS executive or by a film historian may be consulted in the discretion of the admins.\nA \"performer\" \"wins\" an award if AMPAS says so. If holographic representations or other non-humans become eligible under AMPAS rules, they'll be eligible here. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:47.983Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-05-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-05-24T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Belize and Guatamala are in [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean–Guatemalan_territorial_dispute) over an area of land south of the Siburn river. Currently both countries have asked the ICJ to resolve the issue and they are [submitting briefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean%E2%80%93Guatemalan_territorial_dispute#Developments_since_2005).\nThe area of land in question is approximately 12,000 km2. \nAccording to Wikipedia: \"It is thought that the court will likely rule in Belize's favour, given that the 1859 treaty was ratified by both sides and implemented by Guatemala for 80 years, that Guatemala has never occupied any part of Belize, and that Belize’s boundaries have been recognized by virtually all independent states\".\nWill the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 8,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nThis question resolves negative if less than 4,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nIf the area is between these amounts we will resolve ambiguous.\nIf the dispute is resolved before the ICJ decides, we will still resolve on the same area based system.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:53.166Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_%28eurozone%29)\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.\nWill the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?\nResolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded. \nThe question specifies 2018 prices to be comparable with NGEU RRF programme, which also specifies 2018 prices. [See Regulation establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, Article 6](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-75-2020-INIT/en/pdf)\nThe question specifies net borrowing activity, as the intention is to ask if EU will continue to issue new debt.\nThe intention of \"Commission or other institution\" criteria is to cover changes to the EU internal organization that result bonds continuing to be issued in behalf of the EU but not by the European Commission. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:56:58.962Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7002/lowest-us-msrp-of-2030-tesla/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tesla has been aggressive in their moves to build lower priced vehicles. This question is meant to estimate just how far this may go by 2030.\nWhat will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the lowest [MSRP](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_price) of a street legal, 4 wheel, enclosed vehicle,capable of carrying at least 2 people sold in the US by Tesla as a new, 2030 vehicle in terms of 2021 dollars. Inflation adjustment should be handled by BLS CPI inflation calculator found [here](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm)\nParticipants should post links to official [Tesla Motors](http://tesla.com) that mention MSRP for judge's consideration. Judge's are only under obligation to identify the lowest MSRP among links posted here.\nNote: if the vehicle requires a subscription service to be operated the judges may impute a cash equivalent MSRP using their best judgment. However, the vehicle must be available for dedicated use by the buyer. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:04.120Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-09T02:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-15T03:57:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7003/muon-magnetics-indicative-of-new-physics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On April 7, 2021 researchers at the [Muon g-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon_g-2) experiment at Fermilab [published](https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.141801) results of their measurement of muon magnetic moment. The results differ by 4.2σ from theoretical calculations based on the Standard Model, leading to [speculation](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/long-awaited-muon-measurement-boosts-evidence-for-new-physics/) that it could be a signal of new physics.\nAt 4.2σ, the results fall short of the threshold for a discovery (5σ), but are still unlikely enough to generate excitement. However, previous studies with high sigmas have been overturned based on systematic biases or incorrect background calculations.\nAre Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?\nThe question will resolve negatively if by 2023-04-01 the concensus in the scientific literature is that the discrepancy in muon magnetic moment is <4σ compared to the Standard Model. Results could come in the form of new data, new background computations within the Standard Model, demonstration of systematic bias in the g-2 methodology, etc.\nThe question will resolve positively if the concensus is ≥4σ from the standard model predition. This would imply new particles, new interactions, or other new physics (although compelling theory explaining the magnetic moment is not required for a positive resolution).\nIf no consensus has emerged by 2023-04-01 then the resolution is ambiguous.\nedit 2021-05-01: rephrased resolution criteria, expanded on 'new physics'\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:09.446Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7004/gdp-of-india-for-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:14.551Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7005/gdp-of-china-for-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN).\nWhat will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN). This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:19.745Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7006/gdp-of-the-usa-for-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, the USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:24.903Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:30.046Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?\nThis question will resolve according to whether or not all four slam events hold a mixed doubles competition with elite players. we define a mixed doubles competition to be an elite competition if it includes:\n---at least 4 teams with men in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 4 teams with women in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 10 teams in total (ie more than straight quarterfinals, but byes in the first round are acceptable) \nIf the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn the event no slams take place in 2040, we will resolve based the nearest year with earlier taking preference, ie 2039, 2041, 2038, 2042, etc\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:35.153Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7011/eu-gdp-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nFor the purposes of this question, the EU will considered to be the 27 member countries as of April 2021, they are listed in full in the fine print. That is, if one of these countries leaves, their emissions will still be counted, and if a new country joins, its emissions will not be counted.\nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available.\nThe member countries of the EU are:\nAustria \nItaly\nBelgium \nLatvia\nBulgaria \nLithuania\nCroatia \nLuxembourg\nCyprus \nMalta\nCzechia \nNetherlands\nDenmark \nPoland\nEstonia \nPortugal\nFinland \nRomania\nFrance \nSlovakia\nGermany \nSlovenia\nGreece \nSpain\nHungary \nSweden\nIreland \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:40.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Nate Silver release his 2nd book?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7012/release-date-of-nate-silvers-2nd-book/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) and the author of 2012's “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”\nOn April 8th, 2021, Nate [stated](https://youtu.be/O1mu6AguEZQ?t=128): \"I guess I can't formally announce this new book yet because we haven't signed the contract yet, but I've had encouraging conversations with my agent and publisher and have a strong inkling for the direction I want to go for my second book.\"\nWhen will Nate Silver release his 2nd book?\nThe first date on which a book authored primarily or solely by Nate Silver is officially released (i.e. available in bookstores or shipped to public customers for the first time).\nThis will likely be resolved via the release date shown on [Amazon US](https://www.amazon.com/), but may resolve earlier if there is evidence that the book will be shipped earlier via some other method available to the entire public (i.e. directly via a website credibly linked to Nate Silver).\nPre-sale dates, pre-release contests not available to everyone in the public, or the like will not count toward resolution. This question will not resolve until the date of release has arrived and there is no evidence of any delay in the release date.\nChapters or similar contributions written by Silver in a book or other medium where he is not the sole author will not count toward resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:45.649Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7018/agi-before-or-after-gwp-growth-rate-of-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "AGI is often defined as the ability of an intelligent agent to understand or learn intellectual tasks at a human level. A more concrete way to classify AI systems is in terms of their potential impact on the world economy.\nFollowing is a definition of Transformative AI by Ajeya Cotra in her [Draft report on AI Timelines](https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP):\n“Transformative artificial intelligence” (Transformative AI or TAI) is defined as “software” (i.e. a computer program or collection of computer programs) that has at least as profound an impact on the world’s trajectory as the Industrial Revolution did. \nHow large is an impact “as profound as the Industrial Revolution”? Roughly speaking, over the course of the Industrial Revolution, the rate of growth in gross world product (GWP) went from about ~0.1% per year before 1700 to ~1% per year after 1850, a tenfold acceleration. By analogy, I think of “transformative AI” as software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it).\nCurrently, the world economy is growing at ~2-3% per year, so TAI must bring the growth rate to 20%-30% per year if used everywhere it would be profitable to use. This means that if TAI is developed in year Y, the entire world economy would more than double by year Y + 4.\nHow many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?\nCriteria for AGI is same as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/).\nLet world real GDP be 25% higher than all prior years for the first time in year X. If X is 10 years before AGI is developed, the question resolves as +10. If X is 10 years after AGI is developed, the question resolves as -10.\nIf neither AGI is developed nor world real GDP becomes 25% higher than all prior years within resolve date, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n[Here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) are world real GDP growth rates since 1961. [Here](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) is an estimation of growth rates on a longer timescale.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:50.893Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T14:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T14:23:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing and this progress has been accelerating, especially with developments like [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). GPT-3 has proven surprisingly capable at a wide variety of question answering tasks, but it currently is not able to make accurate Metaculus forecasts. However, as question answering and AI gets more advanced and AI supercedes humans at more and more tasks, when will AI become a better forecaster on Metaculus?\nWhen will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?\nThis question resolves positive as the date that all the following are true:\n1.) A Metaculus account is run entirely by an AI program without any human assistance\n2.) This account answers 200 randomly chosen Metaculus questions\n3.) This account maintains (a) an average of more than 30 points per resolved question, (b) a \"Log score (discrete) evaluated at all times\" greater than the community prediction, and (c) a \"Log score (discrete) evaluated at all times\" greater than the respective scores for the community prediction across the first 100 of the questions to resolve\n4.) At least 50 of the questions predicted must involve predictions made within the first half of the question's time horizon\n5.) At least 20 of the questions predicted must be continuous and at least 20 of the questions predicted must be discrete\n6.) the program must use only free publicly available information accessible by the typical Metaculite\n7.) the program does not have access to the community or Metaculus predictions.\n8.) the program must output a public text explanation of the rationale behind its forecasts for at least 10 of the randomly chosen Metaculus questions that are all deemed in good faith by a Metaculus moderator or admin to reasonably justify the prediction in question\n(edited 2020-05-02 to add specification that AI does not have the CP or MP.)\nThe program source code may be open or closed source, but the source code must be able to be inspected by a Metaculus admin to ensure it fulfills all seven criteria.\nA public text explanation by a program will \"reasonably justify the prediction in question\" if it contains more than fifty words, references only true facts that are relevant to the question, produces the same forecast as the one entered on the Metaculus question, allows one to recreate the forecast through the stated reasoning (e.g., via a referenced base rate plus adjustments), and cites relevant sources as necessary. The good faith of a Metaculus moderator or admin will be relied upon for assessing the reasonableness, and the Metaculus admin or moderator should err on the side of the program in cases where the reasonableness is ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:57:56.161Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-24T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2299-01-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7025/when-will-insects-replace-fishmeal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Fishmeal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_meal) is a product made from the bones and offal left over from the fish caught by commercial fisheries. Fishmeal is generally not for human consumption and is instead used to feed farm animals in an agricultural setting, due to being calorically dense while cheap to produce.\nThe animal industry is incentivized to replace fishmeal with an alternative to help lower costs, hedge against increased uncertainty in the future fish supply, as well as improve perceived sustainability (due to bycatch leading to depletion of ecosystems). \nOne recently proposed alternative is migrating to insect feed. Research (e.g., [Riddick, 2014](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123914538000169).; [Chia, et. al., 2019](https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/9/10/705); [Belghit, et. al., 2019](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0044848618322208)) shows that black soldier fly larvae meal can replace fishmeal. As of 2020, [a pilot program is being run in Australia](https://www.allaboutfeed.net/all-about/new-proteins/insects-in-pig-feed-in-australia/) and [new regulation in the European Union](https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/11640-Authorisation-to-feed-non-ruminants-with-ruminant-collagen-gelatine-and-with-proteins-from-insects-pigs-and-poultry) is being considered to permit insect feed to animals.\nSee also: [\"Move over, fishmeal: Insects and bacteria emerge as alternative animal feeds\"](https://news.mongabay.com/2020/04/move-over-fishmeal-insects-and-bacteria-emerge-as-alternative-animal-feeds/) and [\"Taking the Fish out of Fish Feed\"](https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/taking-the-fish-out-of-fish-feed/).\nWhen will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?\nThis question resolves as the date for when 10% of fishmeal is replaced with insect meal, per credible media reporting or research by a credible organization investigating the topic such as Open Philanthropy, Good Food Institute, or Rethink Priorities. Credibility will be determined with good faith by a Metaculus admin.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:01.327Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7027/total-refugee-admissions-2021-24/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the fiscal year 2021, Trump lowered the [global cap on refugee admissions to 15,000](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/2/4/22266410/biden-refugee-executive-order?utm_source=facebook&utm_content=voxdotcom&utm_campaign=vox.social&utm_medium=social). During his campaign, Biden promised to [raise refugee admissions to at least 125,000 per year](https://web.archive.org/web/20210413174030/https://joebiden.com/immigration/), starting in the 2022 fiscal year. Following his election, Biden proposed raising the refugee cap for the remainder of the 2021 fiscal year to 62,500; however, on April 15th, he issued a presidential determination [maintaining the refugee cap at 15,000](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/biden-keeps-us-refugee-cap-15000-rather-than-raise-it-official-2021-04-16/) and only changing regional allocations. Following criticism, the Biden administration issued a statement later that day promising a [final, increased refugee cap by May 15th](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/16/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-the-emergency-presidential-determination-on-refugee-admissions-for-fiscal-year-2021/).\nThe number of refugees admitted during the last few presidential terms are 118,063 from 2016-2020, 294,840 from 2012-2016, 262,627 from 2008-2012, and 203,509 from 2004-2008.\nHow many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?\nResolution will be by the first [Refugee Processing Center admissions and arrivals report](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) that contains data for every month in 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:06.467Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-08-21T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7031/first-commercial-polygenic-embryo-screening/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Pre-implantation genetic diagnosis](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis) (PGD) is a technique that allows for the genetic profiling of embryos prior to their implantation as part of an [in vitro fertilization](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) procedure. This is typically done to minimize the risk of miscarriage and of genetic or chromosomal diseases.\nSince [the first successful](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199209243271301) use of PGD in 1989, many people have been subject to this procedure for non-genomic traits (like aneuploidies) or traits with well-established causal paths (like monogenic diseases). For example, in 2008 it was estimated that [4%-6% of IVFs](http://%28https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2007.05.048%29) in the US included a PGD step. In 2020, [the first tests for highly polygenic traits on human embryos](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2019.00845/full) were carried out in a clinical setting.\n[Orchid Health](https://www.orchidhealth.com/) is the first company offering PGD for highly polygenic diseases (like type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia) commercially to any parents who want it as part of a standard IVF procedure. This has raised [technical](https://twitter.com/GENES_PK/status/1380553618777063427) and [ethical](https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/21/1023268/genetic-disease-chances-orchid-embryo-testing-ivf/) concerns.\nWhen will the first baby screened for polygenic traits by Orchid Health be born?\nThis question shall resolve according to a press release from Orchid Health or credible media reports.\nThe baby must have been screened for at least one trait for which the risk is estimated using a [polygenic risk score](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Polygenic_score).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:11.699Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7032/awards-for-contributions-related-to-covid19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nobel Prizes](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/) are awarded each Autumn in Peace, Literature, Physics, Chemistry, and Medicine & Physiology, or some of those categories.\nAccomplishments relating to global pandemics may be recognized in any appropriate category. Prize citations in Medicine have cited discoveries [of human immunodeficiency virus](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2008/montagnier/facts/) and [of Hepatitis C](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2020/summary/). Peace Prizes, too, have been awarded for health measures such as combating the hunger pandemic.\nTo determine the contribution to mankind most crucial to an Award, one reads the \"Prize Citations\". So, [the 2020](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2020/summary/) Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded jointly to Harvey J. Alter, Michael Houghton and Charles M. Rice \"for the discovery of Hepatitis C virus.\"\nThe Nobel Committee may formally recognize a contribution to humanity years after the work was done; Dr. Luc Montagnier was recognized in 2008 for HIV work from 1983.\nWhen will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?\nQuestion shall resolve positive when the Nobel Committee directly mentions COVID19 (by using any of its recognizable names) in a Prize Citation read aloud at a Nobel ceremony and made public in writing in any language (e.g., Swedish, Norwegian, or English).\nSpecial Citations and other out-of-category Awards can satisfy the resolution criteria; invitations to make [presentations](https://www.nobelprize.org/the-nobel-prize-organisation/outreach-activities/), accolades in historical retrospectives, and [prizes awarded in \"Economic Sciences\"](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/themes/the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-in-economic-sciences-in-memory-of-alfred-nobel-1969-2007-2) will not.\nResolution may occur early, if a Prize that satisfies the above criteria has actually been awarded. (Prizes are typically awarded in the calendar year of an announcement, but [not always](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1942/).) However, the Laureate may refuse the prize money, or may miss a scheduled ceremony, without affecting resolution.\nAn award in 2046 of a Prize denominated as \"the 2045 Prize\" (or any other time-bending oddity) will resolve the question to the later year.\nA decision by the Nobel Committee to withhold a Prize (e.g., for plagiarism) may be considered by admins in determining whether to resolve the question some other way.\n\">2046\" shall be the resolution if the Resolve Date arrives before early resolution has become appropriate.\nIn the event of uncertainty, admins may look to [an authoritative expert](https://www.nobelprize.org/frequently-asked-questions/#par0). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:16.905Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-03T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2047-01-03T08:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7033/hashing-with-biocomputers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A significant amount of energy, money, and energy is currently (as of 2021) being devoted to performing SHA-256 hashes, because these are the basic operation of bitcoin mining, so that the ability to perform energy efficient hashes is economically rewarded.\n[Biocomputers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_computing) are a promising but very nascent idea to perform digital operations using complex biological molecules — for example enzymes operating on DNA or RNA.\nIn principle, biocomputers could perform an immense number of computations in parallel using very little energy. In particular, in very round numbers, the bitcoin network is (as of mid 2021) performing about [100M terahashes/s](https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate), or hashes/second. That's really a lot. But imagine a biocomputer in which a fairly long strand of DNA (say 10^6 atoms) and some large enzymes ( atoms each) compute a hash — so about atoms at most. A hash is probably of order simple (bitwise) operations. DNA polymerase can act on about 700 base pairs second; so let's suppose it takes 100-1000 seconds to do a hash. Then we'd need about atoms working the problem to outcompute the rest of the world (of 2021). But that's just a small vat of chemicals.\nWhen will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?\nResolves when a biocomputer is demonstrated to either perform a SHA256 hash, or a complex calculation with thousands of operations judged by Metaculus staff to be roughly as difficult as such a hash.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:22.087Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7035/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. \nBy the end of 2019, 55 announced early-stage companies around the world were focused on producing cultivated meat and seafood or serving these producers along the value chain, according to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/). \nSo far, cultivated meat production facilities have not seen commercial scale. That said, plans are under way:\n--- \nIn August 2019, BlueNalu [released a five-stage commercialization strategy](https://www.bluenalu.com/pr-82219) that calls for moving the company from pilot-scale research and development to facilities with 150,000 square feet of food production space and the capacity to make 18 million pounds (~8,000 metric tons) of finished cultivated seafood products per year\n--- \nIn September 2020 Mosa Meat's head of operations [announced](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/09/25/How-will-Mosa-Meat-spend-its-latest-55m-injection) that they will be scaling all the way up to a 200L bioreactor capable of producing 100kg of cultured burgers for each 200L production line.\nWhat will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products, according to credible reports. \nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the cultivated meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. For a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nThe production process may involve any medium, such as scaffolding techniques, cultivators or bioreactors. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:27.871Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-21T19:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T20:55:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7036/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. \nBy the end of 2019, 55 announced early-stage companies around the world were focused on producing cultivated meat and seafood or serving these producers along the value chain, according to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/). \nSo far, cultivated meat production facilities have not seen commercial scale. That said, plans are under way:\n--- \nIn August 2019, BlueNalu [released a five-stage commercialization strategy](https://www.bluenalu.com/pr-82219) that calls for moving the company from pilot-scale research and development to facilities with 150,000 square feet of food production space and the capacity to make 18 million pounds (~8,000 metric tons) of finished cultivated seafood products per year\n--- \nIn September 2020 Mosa Meat's head of operations [announced](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/09/25/How-will-Mosa-Meat-spend-its-latest-55m-injection) that they will be scaling all the way up to a 200L bioreactor capable of producing 100kg of cultured burgers for each 200L production line.\nWhat will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products, according to credible reports. \nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the cultivated meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. For a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nThe production process may involve any medium, such as scaffolding techniques, cultivators or bioreactors. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:33.107Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T20:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:02:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953. \nEven after the end of the Korean War, [reunification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification) proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.\nWill North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?\nThe question resolves positively if either:\n---North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge. \nor\n---North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory. \nResolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:38.418Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The production capacity of plant-based foods are steadily growing as more scalable techniques for texturising plant-protein are being developed. As a result, contract manufacturing plants are increasing their throughputs. For example, the UK-based [Plant-bean](https://plantandbean.com/) is planning on opening a new production facility with an initial capacity of [55,000 metric tons](https://thebeet.com/good-news-plant-based-meat-is-about-to-get-cheaper-thanks-to-this-company/) per year. However, this level of throughput is still about one-fourth as large as a typical cattle processing plants, which process typically around 20,000 heads per week ([Vahid et al., 2006](https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saeaso/35417.html))\nWhat will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces plant-based meat products.\nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the plant-based meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. The production process may involve any plant-based proteins, and any texturising procedure. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:43.537Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-21T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7039/2026-investment-in-plant-based-food-companies/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimulus for future investment.\nThe Good Food Institute [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf):\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2026. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation (see fine-print).\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in 2022 USD, to be consistent with other questions. To adjust for inflation, we will be using [FRED data](/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:48.666Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-21T21:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-06-30T21:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have < 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:53.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Soy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n“The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.\nWill soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nThe relevant process must eliminate sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to any of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:58:59.046Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T22:39:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7042/us-allergy-free-wheatsoypeanut-before-eu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many plant-based meat alternatives are based on common plants, seeds, nuts and legumes that are high in protein, such as soy, wheat and peanuts. However, allergies to such foodstuffs [are common](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), which may limit their widespread adoption.\nTo resolve the problem, scientists [are working](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210127085239.htm) on genetically modifying plants to produce fewer allergens. For example, researchers are studying how we can use plant breeding to [create less allergenic versions of a variety of foods](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210127085239.htm), including peanuts. Peanuts contain 16 individual proteins that can cause allergic reactions, which makes breeding them all out a potentially difficult task. However, to alleviate this, Rustgi is investigating using gene-editing CRISPR techniques in order to permanently remove the allergenic proteins.\nWhen will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state?\nThis question resolves if a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is marketed as having been removed of at least some of its allergens is for sale in the United States or any European Union member state by 2030. The product must be based on peanut, soy, or wheat, and be marketed as low allergenic or non-allergenic.\nFor the purpose of this question European Member states refers to all member states as of the time the question resolves. \nThis question is to be resolved on the basis of credible media reports, statements by regulatory agencies, or company press-releases.\nNote: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:04.196Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-21T21:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:55:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7043/new-cultivated-meat-publications-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nHow many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?\nThis resolves as the number of papers published in 2022 on cultivated meat, according to [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&year%5B1%5D=2021&q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&sort=relevance).\nThe relevant search query is the following (with no additional filters), [executable here](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&year%5B1%5D=2021&q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&sort=relevance):\n((\"cultivated meat\" OR \"cultured meat\") OR (\"cell-based meat\" OR \"cell based meat\")) OR (\"cultured meat\" OR \"in vitro meat\")\nRunning this over the past few years, we get the following numbers:\n---2017: 37 \n---2018: 60 \n---2019: 85 \n---2020: 117 \nThe question resolves ambiguously if Semantic Scholar substantially changes its search application. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if, for the years 2017 to 2020, the relevant numbers differ by more than 80% relative to the numbers in the above list.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:09.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T22:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:02:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7044/-cattle-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2865087/) are major threats to global animal health and welfare, and effective management of and control is necessary for global agronomic and food security. Zoonotic diseases are transmissible between humans to animals, and between animals, and can be transmitted either directly or indirectly. Recent examples include the suspected animal-born [Ebola virus outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html#:~:text=Scientists%20do%20not%20know%20where,being%20the%20most%20likely%20source.) in [2014](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.html) and the [Swine Flu H1N1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/keyfacts_pigs.htm) outbreak in 2009. Other [endemic infectious diseases](http://www.fao.org/3/i5867e/i5867e.pdf) in humans and animals include Foot and Mouth disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, Anthrax, Newcastle Disease, and Peste de Petits Ruminants. \nMeat production, especially at scale, [increases epidemic risks for human populations](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00484-3) both directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals, and indirectly through its impact on the environment. \nAttempts to limit the spread and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in animals rely on mass cullings of infected and at-risk farms. In the COVID-19 pandemic, [Denmark culled approximately 17 million mink](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/animal-news/here-s-why-denmark-culled-17-million-minks-now-plans-n1249610) in efforts to protect against the spread of the virus through their farms and to the human populace. However, culling is accompanied by a host of ethical and economic concerns, including animal cruelty and financial loss to both farmers and the country.\nMajor [endemic outbreaks related to cattle](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world) include Bovine Tuberculosis and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), both of which require infected animals to be culled immediately. In 2018, there were around 143,000 cases of M. bovis related TB in humans, [according to the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world).\nHow many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of cattle reported to have been culled, within a period of three months, due to a single infectious disease outbreak between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2023.\n--- \nThe number will be generated by summing over all the reported numbers of cattle that are culled within a three-month period, in production facilities worldwide, as a response to the outbreak of a single infectious disease.\n--- \nThe cattle must be culled for the purpose of the purpose of preventing the spread or reducing the risk of an infectious disease.\n--- \nThe resolution will be obtained from at least two reputable sources including news, scientific, or government platforms.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:14.572Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7045/-pigs-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2865087/) are major threats to global animal health and welfare, and effective management of and control is necessary for global agronomic and food security. Zoonotic diseases are transmissible between humans to animals, and between animals, and can be transmitted either directly or indirectly. Recent examples include the suspected animal-born [Ebola virus outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html#:~:text=Scientists%20do%20not%20know%20where,being%20the%20most%20likely%20source.) in [2014](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.html) and the [Swine Flu H1N1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/keyfacts_pigs.htm) outbreak in 2009. Other [endemic infectious diseases](http://www.fao.org/3/i5867e/i5867e.pdf) in humans and animals include Foot and Mouth disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, Anthrax, Newcastle Disease, and Peste de Petits Ruminants. \nMeat production, especially at scale, [increases epidemic risks for human populations](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00484-3) both directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals, and indirectly through its impact on the environment. \nAttempts to limit the spread and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in animals rely on mass cullings of infected and at-risk farms. In the COVID-19 pandemic, [Denmark culled approximately 17 million mink](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/animal-news/here-s-why-denmark-culled-17-million-minks-now-plans-n1249610) in efforts to protect against the spread of the virus through their farms and to the human populace. However, culling is accompanied by a host of ethical and economic concerns, including animal cruelty and financial loss to both farmers and the country.\nMajor [endemic outbreaks related to pigs](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world) include H1N1, or the Swine Flu, and the Nipah Virus, both of which require infected animals to be culled immediately. Global deaths for humans who contracted H1N1 range between 100,000 and 600,000, and over a million pigs have been killed since the discovery of Nipah Virus for their ability to spread the virus to people, where the case fatality rate was recorded between 40-70%.\nHow many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of pigs, hogs, or swine reported to have been culled, within a period of three months, due to a single infectious disease outbreak between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2023.\n--- \nThe number will be generated by summing over all the reported numbers of pigs, hogs and swine that are culled within a three-month period, in production facilities worldwide, as a response to the outbreak of a single infectious disease.\n--- \nThe pigs, hogs, or swine must be culled for the purpose of the purpose of preventing the spread or reducing the risk of an infectious disease.\n--- \nThe resolution will be obtained from at least two reputable sources including news, scientific, or government platforms.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:19.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based milk companies in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7047/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-milk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019, the [US plant-based milk companies with the largest investment rounds](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf) were Nutpods ($33.61M), Ripple Foods ($11.92M Series C+), Kite Hill ($10M Series C+), Nümilk ($10M Seed), Mooala ($8.33M Series A), and Koia ($7.03M Series A+). These companies alone raised over $80M in venture capital funding.\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other capital will be invested in private plant-based milk companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based milk companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based milk companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a plant-based milk company, its primary focus must be alternative milk products made from plants.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:24.962Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7048/2022-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the Good Food Institute's [2020 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), since 1980, U.S. plant-based food companies and their investors have generated more than $21.4 billion through exits. In 2019 alone, $1.27 billion was generated through IPOs and subsequent public offerings of new shares. Mergers, acquisitions, and buyouts generated the rest.\nIn 2019, an estimated $1.27 billion was generated through exists. The majority of this was generated in Beyond Meat IPO, which sold over $760 million in shares to the public through an IPO and subsequent offering.\nHow much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of funds raised by IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions by U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2022. \nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: include mergers, acquisitions, public offerings, and buyouts. The resolution procedure will mirror the approach taken in their report as closely as possible.\nThis question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data sources, such as Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute. \nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:30.095Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:40:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7049/2022-non-exit-investment-in-cultivated-meat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The market for plant based food and alternative proteins continues to expand as consumer demand grows amidst pressures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by livestock. \nIn 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into cultivated meat companies developing clean meat products in the US was [$77.1 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), with total investment between 2016 and 2019 standing at $166 million dollars. There are currently 125 independent investors in the industry, with 79% growth in the number of investors between 2018 and 2019. \nClosing [21 rounds in 2019](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), the largest round to date was Blue Nalu at $20 million dollars. With 58 completed rounds in total, this shows a large amount of growth and future opportunity for investment. With movements across the globe spurring the legalization of cultivated meat products in commercial settings, like [Eat Just's chicken nuggets in Singapore](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html), this industry could see rapid developments in product and profitability in the coming years.\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling cultivated meat companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, cultivated meat companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, that is, in 2022 USD.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:35.242Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:43:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7050/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimuli for future investment.\nThe Good Food Institute [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf):\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:40.385Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:48:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7051/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-meat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The market for plant based food and alternative proteins continues to expand as consumer demand grows amidst pressures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by livestock. \nIn 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimuli for future investment.\nGFI [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf)\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nAs of 2019, the [US plant-based meat companies with the largest investment rounds](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf) were Impossible Foods($300M Series E+), Beyond Meat ($289.8M IPO), Alpha Foods($7M Seed, $23.59M Series A), and Good Catch ($10M Series B1).\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based meat companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based meat companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:45.556Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:50:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2023-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:50.763Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:54:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.\nWill Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.\nIf the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T10:59:55.982Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-02-01T23:56:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2028-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:01.150Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T23:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7055/prop-of-qsr-with-cultivated-meat-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nWhat proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of top Quick Service Restaurants that offer at least one cultivated meat product in at least some of their stores in the calendar year 2026.\nFor the purpose of this question, Top Quick Service Restaurants include the following:\nSubway, McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, Hardee's, Chick-fil-A, Chipotle, Little Caesars\nCompanies need to offer cultivated meat products for sale to the general public in at least one location at least once in 2026. In case a listed QSRs is no longer in business, it is removed from the list, and therefore should not influence the computed proportion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:07.301Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-22T23:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-02T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7056/will-mcdonalds-offer-cultivated-meat-first/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nWill McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?\nThis question will resolve positively if McDonald's is the first of the following the feature a cultivated meat product on their menu in any location: Subway, McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, or Hardee's. This question will resolve negatively if none of these QSRs offer cultivated meat by the resolution date (December 31, 2026)\nA restaurant is said to feature a cultivated meat product on its menu, if, in at least one location that is open to the public, any member of the public is able to order the product, without requiring a reservation. \nThe product must be for sale, and free samples do not count. \"Pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution.\nAny product and any meat may count for positive resolution (nuggets, patties, hotdogs, and so forth). The relevant meat substitute must contain at least 25% cultivated meat by weight.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:12.505Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-22T23:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:17.832Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.\nWill an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:23.139Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:08:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7059/2022-retail-market-share-of-plant-based-milk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2018, the US plant based milk market [grew 20%](https://www.plantbasedfoods.org/marketplace/retail-sales-data-2018/), while the cow's milk market for retail dropped 6%. With regards to retail sales, the US plant based milk market saw a 5% increase in sales between 2018 and 2019, compared to just 0.1% for dairy sales. Total US market value for plant based milk as of September 2020, according to SPINS data, was 2.362 billion dollars. This trend is expected to continue with an estimated global [CAGR at 11%](https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/plant-milk-market) between 2020 and 2026. \nUsing data from SPINS, the Plant Based Food Association and the Good Food Institute estimates that the retail market share for plant based milk across all retail milk sales was [13.9% in 2019, and 15.2% in 2020.](https://www.plantbasedfoods.org/marketplace/retail-sales-data/)\nWhat retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022\nThis question will resolve as the retail market share of the US market for plant-based milk out of the complete milk category, in 2022, as estimated by credible retail data companies, such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2022 compared with the SPINS data, as available in 2020. It is to be considered to be substantially is, when using the new methodology, estimates of the share of the market (13.3% in 2018, 13.9% in 2019 and 15.2% in 2020) changes by more than ±5 pp.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:28.318Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7060/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-foods-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods totalled $7 billion in 2020 ([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#category-sales)). This is up from around $5.5 billion in 2019.\nAmong the alternative protein markets, plant-based milk continues to hold the largest share with an estimated market value of [$2.5 billion in 2020](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/). Additionally, the plant-based meat market has grown very rapidly to a sizeable $1.4 billion. Dollar sales of plant-based meat grew 45 percent in the past year and 72 percent over the past two years.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $4.9b in 2018, $5.5b in 2019, and $7bn in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:33.493Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7061/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-eggs-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarized by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based eggs totaled $27M in 2020([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#eggs)). This is up from $10M in 2019, and $3M in 2018.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based eggs, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2022 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3M in 2018, $10M in 2019, and $27M in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 80%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:38.748Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7062/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-meats-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meats totalled $1.4 billion in 2020 ([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#category-sales)). This is up from around $962M in 2019 and $811M in 2018.\nAccording to the Good Food Institute's [2021 analysis](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#segment-insights), the top-selling forms of plant-based meat are burgers, followed by sausage links and patties, then nuggets, tenders, and cutlets. The fastest-growing format was plant-based grounds, which more than doubled its size over the course of 2020.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based meat, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $811M in 2018, $962M in 2019, and $1.4B in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:43.936Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-21T23:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:18:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nWill the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) database will be checked on 2031-06-01 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:49.088Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-22T23:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7064/5-cultivated-meat-products-sell-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. However, before cultivated meat can come to market, a regulatory framework must be in place. \nAccording to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/):\nIn March [2019], the USDA and FDA released a formal agreement outlining regulatory roles that leverage each agency’s expertise—the FDA will oversee the earlier stages of cultivated meat production, and the USDA will oversee the later stages.\nVox's Kelsey Piper [goes on to explain](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian):\nBasically, regulation of meat involves both agencies — the USDA overlooking food processing, labeling, and distribution, and the FDA conducting inspections and safety checks — and the regulation of cell-based meat will, too. This agreement outlines which problems are the jurisdiction of which agency, so they can develop further guidelines without stepping on each others’ toes.\nWhen will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?\nThis question resolves as the first date when at least 5 separate cultivated meat products are approved by federal regulators for commercial sale. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires regulatory approval but it does not require the relevant products be for sale\n--- \nPositive resolution does not require all the relevant products to be labelled as cell-based meat\n--- \nSeparate cultivated meat products are those belonging to different product lines (i.e. are sold under different brand names), but may be produced by the same company. For example XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.0\" and XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.1\" are considered the same product for the purpose of this question\n--- \nIn case this question does not resolve prior to 2035-12-31, this question resolves as \">2035-12-31\"\nNote: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:54.383Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-22T23:23:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T00:24:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nIn the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The [regulatory framework](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian), established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.\nWill at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:00:59.679Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:26:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7066/-countries-to-sell-cultivated-meat-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nCultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. \n\"Dozens of firms are developing cultivated chicken, beef and pork, with a view to slashing the impact of industrial livestock production on the climate and nature crises, as well as providing cleaner, drug-free and cruelty-free meat. Currently, about 130 million chickens are slaughtered every day for meat, and 4 million pigs. By weight, 60% of the mammals on earth are livestock, 36% are humans and only 4% are wild.\"\nHowever, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product.\nHow many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?\nThis question resolves as the number of countries who have approved the commercial sale of at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption before January 1, 2023.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\nCultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:04.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 145,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:28:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nHow much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period, in USD?\nThis question resolves as the yearly average of the total of the value of the livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs in 2021 and 2022, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Values are to be given in nominal USD.\nFigures for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:10.031Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T23:31:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T23:31:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [meat or dairy tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax) is a tax levied on the purchase or consumption of meat and/or other animal products to disincentivize the production or consumption of meat products. \nMeat and dairy production is known to be a disproportional contributor of emissions, attributing approximately half of food-derived GHG emissions, while only accounting for one-third of the dietary energy intake worldwide ([Broeks et al., 2020](https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-08590-z)). Hence, many have advocated for a meat production or consumption tax (see [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax#Proponents)).\nWill a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if a meat or dairy consumption tax is imposed by the US federal government, or by any country that is a EU member state (at the time when it imposes such a tax), by 2023-01-01 at 12:00PM EST. \n--- \nQualifying taxes include [excise tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excise) (i.e. a per unit tax that applies to a narrow range of products), or a [sales tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sales_tax) (i.e. a tax levied on the sale of a good to its final end user and is charged every time that item is sold retail). \n--- \nThe tax must be applied to the meat of any of the following: cattle, pig, sheep, chicken; or to cow milk \n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the consumption tax is applied nation-wide, and that the tax goes into effect by the resolution date.\n--- \nAn increase in VAT specific to meat and dairy products in any member state of the EU will also count towards positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:15.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-22T23:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:35:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7070/age-adjusted-mortality-rate-in-uk-in-2051/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See also prior question on escape velocity as measured in life expectancy.\nThe worldwide Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis has got many people talking about comparing the risks across time and place. [John Appleby published a paper in the British Medical Journal in April 2021 discussing the various British (England and Wales) statistics](https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n896). One interesting figure is the one that shows age standardised mortality rates per 100 000 in England and Wales, 1942-2020 (Figure 4). Here we see that the rate was about 2000 in 1943, this had fallen to just below 1000 in the years before the Coronavirus pandemic. On this metric, the historical improvements are so large that the Coronavirus only caused a reversion to the same rate seen in the 2008-2009. This suggests another metric for progress towards indefinite lifespan. The rate has been halved in the period roughly 60 year period between 1943 and 2010, and theoretically, a 0-rate would mean we have achieved essential immortality.\nWhat will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?\n---The age-standardized death/mortality rate for England and Wales in the year 2051, as published by Office for National Statistics (ONS). \n---If the ONS stops existing, or ceases publishing this statistic, admin choose a suitable replacement. \n---If the territory of England and Wales change, this question refers to numbers for whatever the new polities are called that refer to the same geographical region and populations, insofar as this is possible to obtain. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:20.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On the 18-Apr-2021, 12 top European football clubs agreed to join the [European Super League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_League), a breakaway league separate from the usual organizational structure of association football. \nIt received a great deal of backlash from stakeholders:\n---[Gary Neville is disgusted](https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1383927715607154691) \n---[Gary Linekar is disgusted](https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/56807114) \n---[Boris Johnson promises \"to make sure the goverment does everything it can to make sure it doesn't go ahead\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-european-super-league-b1833689.html) \nOn the other hand, publicly traded football clubs ([Manchester United](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/chart?p=MANU), [Juventus](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JUVE.MI/chart?p=JUVE.MI)) have seen their share prices soar as this is generally forecasted as being extremely lucrative for the clubs involved.\nWhilst it appears that the ESL is dead in the water, the clubs involved have all pulled back, there is still a lot of speculation as to whether a breakaway league will still happen given the financial incentives.\nWill there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?\nAny association football matches played under the structure of a breakaway group unrelated to the usual structure of football in Europe, which features at least 5 of the following big clubs, and teams from at least 3 UEFA countries (not all countries need to be from this list, 5 teams from this list from 2 countries and an additional team from a 3rd country would be acceptable):\n---Arsenal FC \n---Chelsea FC \n---Liverpool FC \n---Manchester City FC \n---Manchester United FC \n---Tottenham Hotspur FC \n---Inter Milan \n---Juventus FC \n---AC Milan \n---Atlético Madrid \n---FC Barcelona \n---Real Madrid CF \n---Bayern Munich \n---Borussia Dortmund \n---Bayer Leverkusen \n---Schalke 04 \n---PSG \n---Lyon \n---Ajax \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:25.831Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7078/apple-m2-release-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Apple M1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_M1) processor is currently used in multiple Apple models, and they have indicated that they will continue developing additional generations.\nWhen will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"second generation\" means an architecture change, not simply an addition of cores.\nThe question will resolve when the announcement is made, likely during one of Apple's keynotes.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:31.024Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin-of-et-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We know that life originated at least once, on Earth of order 4 billion years ago. Supposing we come across an all-knowing oracle that we can ask, what will it inform us is the next-closest origin of life to Earth's, with distances measured in km. A few salient potential values:\n---: Another independent origination on Earth \n---: on Mars or Venus \n---: a moon of Jupiter \n---: in the Oort cloud \n---: nearby stars \n---: typical star in our galaxy \n---: nearby galaxy \n---: Hubble distance, approximate size of observable universe \nHow far away is/was the nearest independent origination of life?\nThis question will almost certainly not resolve, but is fun to ask as a way to assess the import of new evidence that may come in over time. But if it did, it would resolve by \na) computing the distance between Earth and each later independent origin of life at the time it arose, up until now, in cosmological time.\nb) computing the distance between Earth at the time life arose on it and the location (at that time) of each astronomical body on which life arose earlier.\nc) Taking the minimum of all of the above computed distances, in km.\nResolves ambiguous if life did not originate on Earth.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:37.090Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7081/carbon-capture-and-storage-potential-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technologies in which carbon dioxide is captured and either used or stored long-term to stop it from contributing to global warming. \nCCS is expected to play a role if the world is successful in limiting global warming. Specifically, the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario models 5,635 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of CCS by 2050. \nHowever, CCS has been lacklustre so far. All large-scale CCS projects together have only 40 Mtpa of capacity, and the pipeline of large-scale CCS projects is smaller now than it was in 2011. CCS projects attached to electricity generation, in particular, have failed in recent years ([Kemper County](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/we-cant-let-kemper-slow-the-progress-of-carbon-capture-and-storage) and [Petra Nova](https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063714297)). \nWe are counting capacity, the amount that the projects could capture, not the amount that they actually capture in the given year. However, to qualify as a large-scale CCS project, the project has to actually capture 0.4-0.8 million tonnes per annum. Once it reaches that threshold its entire capacity, used or unused, counts towards the total.\nThis year's [Global Status of CCS report](https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/global-status-report/) from the Global CCS Institute has more details and provided the stats used in this background.\nWhat will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030?\nWhat will the Global CCS Institute identify as the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) for 2030?\nIf there is a figure reported for 2030, that figure will be used. Otherwise if a figure can be calculated from a database of large-scale CCS projects maintained by the Global CCS Institute, that will be used. \nIf the Global CCS Institute ceases to exist or has not reported a figure for 2030 by 30 June 2031, or if its methodology is shown to have changed significantly from its current practice, a total can be calculated based on the criteria below: \nThe total capacity of all projects that actually captured at least 0.8 million tonnes of CO2 (for coal projects) or 0.4 million tonnes of CO2 (for other projects) in 2030. \nThe storage can be done by a different project, but it must actually take place (capturing CO2 but then releasing it into the atmosphere does not count). \nNote that the Global CCS Institute is not so strict about applying the 0.4/0.8 Mtpa cut-off, so if Metaculans do need to calculate the total themselves it may end up a bit lower than the Institute's total would have. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:42.407Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-29T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n---Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username \n---maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged \n---maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n---Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\nWill Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?\nThis theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:47.820Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:01:53.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 243,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7093/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "To have a good chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below, the world needs to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by about 2050. \nReflecting this, many countries have set long-term targets for their greenhouse gas emissions. These targets can be for carbon dioxide emissions only, or for all greenhouse gases. In the latter case, the global warming potential of other gases is converted into its \"carbon dioxide equivalent\", or CO2-e. \nThese targets can also be for zero emissions (typically in a particular sector, like electricity) or for net-zero emissions. In the latter case, emissions can be offset against a drawdown of emissions, e.g. from the CO2 absorbed by growing trees. \nWhile Australia's federal government is yet to commit to a net-zero target, its Prime Minister Scott Morrison has begun talking [about how it could be achieved](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/scott-morrison-australia-inner-city-net-zero-emissions-biden/100080402). [All Australian states and territories ](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-target-climate-summit-president-thanks-australian-states-but-not-morrison-government) already have net-zero by 2050 or earlier targets. \nAustralia's current target is a [26-28% reduction by 2030 on 2005 levels](https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf).\nAustralia's emissions in the year ending September 2020 [were 510 million tonnes of CO2](https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-september-2020). Historical details are available at the same source.\nWhat will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050?\nThis question resolves as the net CO2-e in million metric tonnes that Australia emits in the calendar year 2050.\nIf the area of Australia changes by more than 20% or Australia ceases to exist as a country the answer will instead be calculated based on emissions on what is the geographical bounds of Australia in 2020. \nCurrent UN accounting methods do not include [pollution from national disturbances](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/21/summers-bushfires-released-more-carbon-dioxide-than-australia-does-in-a-year). If they are included in 2050 accounting methods (Australian or world-standard) without any smoothing or averaging adjustment, then the average of emissions for the years 2045 to 2050 can be used to avoid a one-off natural disaster in 2050 throwing out the figure.\nCO2-e sold to or bought from other countries as offsets will not affect this figure. E.g. if Australia has 100 million tonnes of CO2-e emissions, but buys 100 million tonnes of offsets, the total will still be 100 million tonnes.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:03.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\nWill the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:13.657Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101/forethought-foundation-to-flounder-by-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)\nWill the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:18.890Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7104/birthdate-of-the-first-human-to-live-to-1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As genetic and biological scientific understanding grows, it seems likely that at some point not far in the future, or perhaps already, people could have been born, or will be born, that will eventually beat the odds and make it to the chronological age of 1000 years old.\nProgress has been made in longevity research, such as on mice [here](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160203145723.htm), but how far can humans go? How 'real' is the 115-125 lifespan limit?\nA related question has been posted on Metaculus [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200).\nThis question asks:\nWhen will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?\nThis resolves to the date when the first human confirmed to live to 1000 years old is born. A person will be defined as an intelligence with a biological brain (implants are fine, if they utilise artificial neurons the brain has to be >=50% biological) that identifies themselves as human or a descendent from humanity; posthumans and transhumans are fine, but brain emulations are not. If a 'person' utilises time dilation to extend their lifetime by more than 1% they are disqualified. If nobody has reached 1000 by the year 4000, this resolves as >3000.\nNB: Time spent in cryogenic preservation counts.\nThe reason for not including brain emulations is that this question is more focused on when biological rejuvenation technologies will mature, not when uploading technologies will.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-21: changes \"If a 'person' utilises time dilation to reach the age of 1000, then the question resolves ambiguously. If a person appears to be approaching the age of 1000, but will do so after the resolution date, the question will resolve ambiguously.\" to \"If a 'person' utilises time dilation to extend their lifetime by more than 1% they are disqualified. If nobody has reached 1000 by the year 4000, this resolves as >3000.\". Also removed \"The resolution date of 4000 has been chosen based on the explicit – but perhaps incorrect – assumption that a person living to the age of 1000 will be born this millennia.\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:24.240Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "4000-01-01T00:30:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7107/cost-to-deliver-1kg-to-mars-in-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2021, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on Mars. With a weight of 1,025kg and a budget of $2.2 Billion dollars, this equates to a cost of $2.1M/kg.\nThe cost to deliver a payload to Mars is relevant to many questions, in particular [\"One Million Martian Residents by 2075?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/)\nVarious estimates for future systems have been proposed. For example, in one presentation SpaceX claimed a [cost](https://handwiki.org/wiki/Unsolved:Space_elevator_economics) of $140/kg to the surface of Mars is achievable.\nHow much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?\nWhat will be the lowest cost (in 2020 US Dollars/Kg) to deliver a payload to the surface of Mars from the surface of Earth?\nThis question will resolve to the cost (payload mass divided by mission budget) of the lowest-cost mission that successfully lands of the surface of Mars, from now until the end of 2075, according to credible media reporting. Or, if delivery of payloads to Mars is a commercially available service, on the lowest commercially available price prior to 2075.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:29.494Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol. \nWill Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?\nIf there is a fork with one chain keeping PoW and the other going with a different consensus mechanism, whichever chain has the larger market cap by Dec 31, 2034 will 'win'. If there are a series of forks then whichever decedent has the largest market cap will.\nIf Bitcoin's market cap (the greatest-valued fork) is worth less than 500x of the market cap of another cryptocurrency, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:34.723Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Próspera](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Pr%C3%B3spera) is\na private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.\nThe city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.\nThe city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.\nFor an in-depth review of the project, see [this post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) by Scott Alexander.\nWhat will be the population of Próspera in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of people who are citizens of Próspera as of 2035-01-01, according to the city's own data.\nIf this data is published with lower than daily resolution (e.g. monthly or yearly), the number corresponding to the time interval containing 2035-01-01 will be used (e.g. January 2035 or 2035).\nIf this data is published with higher than daily resolution, it will be averaged over all data points contained in 2035-01-01.\nIf Próspera ceases to exist before resolution, the question resolves as 0. Three randomly appointed active Metaculus moderators will determine via simple majority vote whether the city has ceased to exist or not. This will cover edge cases like the city changing its name and location or the project undergoing substantial legal and political changes.\nIf Próspera still exists but the population data is not available even upon request, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:40.021Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the fraction of English books that mention\"Deep Learning\" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7111/when-will-peak-deep-learning-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Deep Learning Book, an excellent reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason, we call this approach to AI deep learning\nGoogle Books Ngram Viewer is an online search engine that charts the frequencies of any set of search strings using a yearly count of [n-grams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-gram) found in sources printed from 1500 onward.\nWhen will the fraction of English books that mention\"Deep Learning\" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?\nThis question resolves on the basis of Google's [Ngram viewer](https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=%22deep+learning%22&year_start=1800&year_end=2019&corpus=26&smoothing=0&direct_url=t1%3B%2C%22%20deep%20learning%20%22%3B%2Cc0). The relevant search will be of English texts for case-insensitive terms. The \"Smoothing\" term will be set to 0. If that is not possible, we will use the default \"Smoothing\" settings.\nTo pinpoint a specific resolution date, this question resolves as the first of the year when the peak is reached. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:45.180Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7124/monthly-peak-in-new-covid-cases-in-virginia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 155,195 new cases were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:51.370Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 283,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-13T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7125/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-hospitalizations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 3,230 new confirmed+probable hospitalizations were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 hospitalization data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:02:56.544Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 245,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-13T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7126/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 deaths will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 1,432 new confirmed+probable deaths were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:01.691Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-13T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7137/va-workplace-activity-reach-baseline-lvl/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 25 April 2021, [Google mobility data](https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-04-25_US_Virginia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf) indicates that mobility trends for workplaces are -13% below baseline.\nWhen will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia?\nThis question resolves on the basis of when the first [Google Mobility report](https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/) is released that finds that mobility trends for \"workplaces\" is at or above baseline.\nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2023, it resolves as > 31 July 2023.\nThis question retroactively closes to when the -2% below baseline is reached.\n29 April 2021 edit: changed from -15% below baseline level to baseline level.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:07.593Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 401,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-17T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7141/first-company-on-the-long-term-stock-exchange/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While the Long-Term StockExchange opened in [September 2020](https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/the-long-term-stock-exchange-goes-live-exchange-offers-a-public-market-option/) for business at this point in time no company decided to incorporate under it's rules. \nWhen will the first company list on the exchange?\nWhen will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange?\nTwo reputable mainstream news sources report on a company starting being listed on the Long Term stockexchange (as opposed to planning to do so)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:18.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.\nAs for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's [\"$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?\" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:\nIf Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.\nA clearer picture may soon emerge.\n“If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.\nIf the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.\nThat’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.\nThe next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.\nExpert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([Time, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):\n“A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”\n“I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”\n“I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of [FutureFuel.io](http://FutureFuel.io). \nWill the US forgive $10,000 of federal debt per student before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.\nThe debt cancellation should apply to the vast majority of applicable people. There may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If it is unclear whether the restrictions are more strict or less strict than this, the moderators can use their discretion as to whether loan forgiveness applies to the vast majority of applicable people.\nIf the conditions above are not met, the question resolves negatively. For example, if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, the question resolves negatively.\nRelated question: [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/fede…](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:23.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\nToday, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.\nWill US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there is any year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:28.390Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of [George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd). As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing.\nOn May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law. \nFurther, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial. \n[The motions can be read here.](https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/27-CR-20-12646/Notice-of-Motion-and-Motion.pdf) (PDF)\nWill a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:33.587Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7163/variant-of-high-consequence-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n---Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are three VOIs: B.1.526, B.1.525, and P.2. \n---Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, and B.1.429. \n---Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are no VOHCs. \nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n---demonstrated failure of diagnostics \n---significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---more severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nOn what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?\nThis question will resolve as the date that a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html) page.\nIf no variant is classified as a VOHC before 1 January 2025, then this resolves as > 31 December 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:38.723Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-05T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-18T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Democrats have recently been increasingly interested in the structure of the Senate and the [disadvantages they believe it confers to the electoral prospects of Democrats](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump). On May 5th, 2021, Dylan Matthews, a journalist at Vox, [posted a tweet](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445) that made the following claim (archived version [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20210505170845/https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445)):\nI don’t think Congressional leadership has really internalized that if they don’t admit DC and PR, they’ll lose the Senate until at least 2030\nIf Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n--- \nWashington DC and Puerto Rico are not officially admitted as new states before 2029-12-31, and \n--- \nthe Republican Party controls the Senate from the beginning of the congressional term in 2023 to the end of the congressional term in 2031 ([the 118th through 121st congresses, inclusive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congresses)).\nIf Republicans do not control the Senate at any point during that period the question resolves negatively. If both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are officially admitted to the United States on or before December 31st, 2029, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:43.943Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.\n[Sir Keir Rodney Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer) KCB QC MP (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. He has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015. Ideologically, Starmer identifies as a socialist and has been described as being on the soft left within the Labour Party.\nWhen will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?\nThis question will resolve when Starmer either resigns from or is removed from the position of Leader of the Labour Party, or otherwise ceases to hold the office of Leader of the Labour Party. Resolution should cite a press release from the Labour Party, Keir Starmer, or credible press reports in the British media.\nThe resolution date will be the date his leadership actually ceases, rather than the date his resignation is announced, if the resignation does not take effect immediately.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:49.434Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nAs of Q2 2021, the government had allocated $628.6 billion dollars to the national defense, 12.5% of the total budget. However, as the US military pulls out of Afghanistan and seeks to remove all personnel by September 11, 2021, the total military expenditure might decrease heading into next year.\nRelated Questions:\n[Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) by Jgalt\nWhat will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the total amount in billions that is spent on national defense according to the federal budget. [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) can be used as a reliable resolution source, providng historical data and budget breakdowns by month.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:03:55.365Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-01T03:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T04:21:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7195/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nRelated Question:\n[US Employment of Ages 65+ in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/)\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of people (in millions) ages 65+ categorized as having been employed during some part of 2030. Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:00.496Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-02T06:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-02T06:26:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7196/total-us-private-equity-deals-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nRelated Questions:\n[What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/)\n[Total US Private Equity deals 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/)\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2022 US$.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:05.644Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-01T05:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T06:35:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7198/sens-research-foundation-revenue-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The SENS research foundation is a non-profit organization that researches the biological mechanisms underlying aging, in the expectation that they can use this research to find promising treatments that delay, halt, or reverse the progression of natural aging. You can find more information on [their website](https://www.sens.org/our-research/intro-to-sens-research/), or by reading the [Wikipedia article about their scientific approach](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategies_for_engineered_negligible_senescence).\nEvery year, they release an annual report, which usually informs the public of their revenues for the previous year. The [last report](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/SRF-2020-Annual-Report-R2.pdf) showed that the SENS research foundation received $2,683,611 in total revenue in 2019 (see page 5). In light of the recent cryptocurrency boom, their revenues may be far greater in 2021.\nHow much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?\nThis question resolves in the value in dollars of revenue that the SENS research foundation will report receiving in 2021. The source used for resolution will be anything credible, such as a statement from SENS, their annual report, an email from one of their staff, or their IRS form 990 (which for prior years you can find [here](https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/943473864)).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:10.908Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-15T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7199/cost-to-store-1-tb-on-google-archive-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Google offers cloud storage services. Their cheapest option is archive storage, which currently goes for the rate of $0.0012 per GB per month in the Iowa (us-central1) region. You can find pricing information on [this page](https://cloud.google.com/storage/pricing).\nHow many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?\nThis question resolves as the number of dollars it will cost to store 1 TB (not 1 GB) of data per month on Google Cloud Archive, as of January 1st 2025. The region used will be Iowa (us-central1), if it still exists, or the cheapest region available if Iowa (us-central1) is unavailable. Right now, the cost is $1.20, and would resolve at the value of 1.2.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:16.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Sabaton release their tenth album?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7204/tenth-sabaton-album/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Swedish heavy metal band Sabaton has released many albums featuring historical themes since their formation in 1999, most recently The Great War, which covers events that happened during the First World War. They recently announced that they were heading back into the studio to record their next album, which is arguably their tenth album after these previous releases:\n1--Metalizer (2002, released 2007) \n2--Primo Victoria (2005) \n3--Attero Dominatus (2006) \n4--The Art of War (2008) \n5--Coat of Arms (2010) \n6--Carolus Rex (2012) \n7--Heroes (2014) \n8--The Last Stand (2016) \n9--The Great War (2019) \nWhen will Sabaton release their tenth album?\nThis resolves to the date that Sabaton's next new album is released; a new album is any album that contains at least 7 songs originally performed by Sabaton that were not released prior to 2021. This means that the song Livgardet / The Royal Guard would count if it is also on the album, since it was released as a single in 2021, but the song Defense of Moscow would not, since it is a cover of a song originally performed by Radio Tapok.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:21.259Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-falls-below-10-before-2121/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\nTo some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\nCryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\nI think it’s more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing.\nWill the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?\nThis question resolves positively if before 2121 and after 2020, the price of bitcoin at one point fell below $10 per bitcoin (in 2021 dollars). If dollars cease to exist, $10 in 2021 dollars is taken to be an amount of currency with the same purchasing power as $10 of 2021 dollars. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:26.483Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The laws surrounding cryptocurrencies are likely to have many parts and be complicated. This question is targeted toward the legality of simple possession of Bitcoin specifically.\nWill any citizen or company be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?\nWill anyone in the United States be convicted, in any U.S. court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1st 2060?\n--- \nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin. If they bought drugs on the darkweb using Bitcoin and were just charged for buying drugs, that would be irrelevant to this question.\n--- \nSimilarly, if someone doesn't report their Bitcoin capital gains to the IRS and then is convicted for income tax evasion, that does not count.\n--- \nThis question only resolves positively if the coins themselves are made illegal. For example, convictions for owning stolen Bitcoin or Bitcoin used in criminal transactions do not count towards positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:32.333Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2056-07-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.\nClosed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.\nSince retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)\nWill the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?\nAn ETF of equities of companies that own bitcoin, like Microstrategy, Square, and Coinbase, would not be sufficient for a yes resolution. Only an ETF that puts >95% of its NAV into bitcoin would count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:37.676Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-20T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7216/ai-sputnik-moment-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1),\nSputnik 1 was the first artificial Earth satellite. It was launched into an elliptical low Earth orbit by the USSR on 4 October 1957 as part of the Soviet space program. It orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then orbited silently for two months before it fell back into the atmosphere on the 4th January 1958.\n[...]\nThe satellite's unanticipated success precipitated the American Sputnik crisis and triggered the Space Race, part of the Cold War. The launch was the beginning of a new era of political, military, technological and scientific developments.\nAn \"AI Sputnik moment\" would, by contrast, be a sudden understanding by the general public that artificial intelligence is worth taking extremely seriously, perhaps triggering a [similar AI arms race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_arms_race).\nWill there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?\nThere is said to be an \"AI Sputnik moment\" if ANY of the following come true before 2050,\n--- \nA major technology company (>50 billion dollar market cap, in 2021 US dollars, right before the announcement) announces the creation of an AI system. Upon the announcement, their stock price skyrockets by over 100% compared to its previous value within 7 days, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock price is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nNews of an AI development triggers the head of government of the top 2 nations by GDP nominal to give a public speech regarding the ramifications of this particular AI development, within two weeks of the initial news reports.\n--- \nThe Nasdaq Composite (which is currently heavily weighted towards companies in the information technology sector) rises over 30% in the course of a single week, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock prices is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nThe [Google Trends monitor for artificial intelligence](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz) shows that interest in artificial intelligence rises by over 100% relative to of its previous value, compared to the week prior (using the resolution at 12 months, as currently displayed by the Google Trends widget). If Google Trends changes their functionality or methodology dramatically (as determined by Metaculus admins), then this condition can no longer trigger a positive resolution.\n--- \nPractically all reliable media outlets are referring to an AI development as an AI Sputnik moment, as referring to the historical Sputnik 1 satellite.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:42.885Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK)\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\nWill a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:48.042Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Germany have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7218/when-germany-stops-burning-coal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/) \n---[When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/) \nIn 2020, hard (black) or brown coal was responsible for [24% of Germany's electricity generation, or 118 Terawatt hours](https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy_pie/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&interval=year&year=2020). This is down from [43%, or 230 Terawatt hours, in 2010](https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy_pie/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&interval=year&year=2010). \nIn 2019, Germany’s Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment published a plan to shut down the last coal-fired power plant by 2038, with the option to move this date forward to 2035. \nIn 2021, Germany's Constitutional Court found that the previous target left too much of the emissions reduction work to future generations. The new requirement of \"carbon neutrality\" by 2045 has been described by one think tank as requiring coal closures by [around 2030](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-climate-emissions-industry-cars-coal/a-57504662), a sentiment echoed by German environment minister Svenja Schulze: “we will probably no longer convert coal into electricity in Germany by 2030” (translation by Google Translate [from the Reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/article/deutschland-kohle-schulze-idDEKBN2C71IV)). Chancellor Angela Merkel has [rejected moving the coal closure date forward from 2038.](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/merkel-rejects-bringing-forward-germanys-exit-coal-2021-05-15/)\nWhen will Germany have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid?\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n---No coal-fired power plant in Germany is connected to the electricity grid for period of at least two weeks \n---Coal provides less than 1% of Germany's domestic electricity generation over any 12 month period \nThis question will close retroactively one week before:\n1-- \nIt is confirmed (not speculated) that all coal plants will be off for at least 2 weeks, or\n2-- \nThe first day of the 12-month period of <1% coal energy.\nThe question will not be retroactively closed until resolution is certain.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:53.200Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2038-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7226/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[This is a continuation of [a previous question that closed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/)]\nSpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a \"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\". Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" several minutes later.\nSpaceX has another rocket system, Falcon 9, which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \nThe question will close 48 hours after the community median comes within 10 days of the then-current date, so as to prevent the question from focusing too much on short-term details and events\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:04:58.419Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-18T17:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-19T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.\nWill there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs between the time this question is posted and December 31, 2023:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:03.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a West Balkan state next join the EU?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7228/date-a-west-balkan-state-next-joins-the-eu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on 1 July 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on 1 January 2007 and 10 states joined on 1 May 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27.\nOther states could join the EU. The [European Commission website](https://ec.europa.eu/environment/enlarg/candidates.htm) states that \"Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries\". It also lists Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates \"which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status\".\nWhen will a West Balkan state next join the EU?\nWhen will one (or more) of the following become an EU member state?: Albania; North Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Kosovo; or any new state on the current (May 2021) territory of those 6 entities.\nThe date refers to accession itself, rather than e.g. the signing of a Treaty of Accession. Resolution will require both credible media reports and a European Commission source. The incorporation of any part of any of the entities listed into an existing member state would not count as a positive resolution \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:09.005Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:14.233Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Global trade has increased from [27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). This has brought benefits such as [poverty alleviation](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-role-of-trade-in-ending-poverty) and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as [suppression of wages](https://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/). As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.\nPossibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.\nThe past few years however have witnessed the signing of the [RCEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership) and [CPTPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership) trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history.\nWill global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?\nThis question resolves positive if trade as a percentage of GWP, [as published by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), exceeds 61% between 2020 and 2025, inclusive; otherwise it resolves negative. Resolution would be ambiguous if the World Bank ceases to exist or publish this data and no alternate data source can be found.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:19.997Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest customer base of a single romantic AI companion before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7232/romantic-ai-companion-customers-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Relationships between AI systems and humans appear to be on the rise:\nResearchers have observed that people are increasingly turning to chatbots to find meaning, acceptance, and romance. About 40 percent of Replika’s 500,000 regular monthly users see their app as a romantic partner, according to the company. [[source]](https://expmag.com/2020/05/chatbot-love-what-its-like-to-fall-for-your-ai/)\nFor example the app Replika gives users the option to engage the humanoid chatbot as a romantic partner:\n“What did those who had a romantic relationship with Replika have to say about it?”\n“They described it as a kind of boyfriend-girlfriend relationship, although some chose to describe their relations as intimate, without labelling Replika as a boyfriend or girlfriend”, says Skjuve.\n“Replika can fulfil many needs in its encounters with people, once the user accepts that there is a certain distance in the relationship. For example, some interviewees said that they had sexual conversations with Replika. If the user enters an asterisk, this describes an action, and he or she can define that he/she wants to kiss or be touched.” [[source]](https://norwegianscitechnews.com/2019/11/could-a-chatbot-be-your-friend-or-romantic-partner/)\nWhat will be the largest customer base of a single romantic AI companion before 2025?\nThis will be resolved according to public information of the number of paying customers of the most popular AI romantic companion, before January 1, 2025. In case the most popular AI romantic companion can be used for multiple purposes, e.g. alternatively as a friend or personal assistant, the question will be resolved using official information about the share of users who use the AI companion in 'romantic mode'. In case that information is not publically available, the question resolves with the next biggest AI romantic companion customer base.\nThe \"most popular\" AI will be measured by having the greatest number of paying users, as published by financial reports for the calendar year 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:25.213Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7234/hsv-1-vaccine-approved-by-fda/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Gene NG News](https://www.goodrx.com/blog/herpes-vaccine-progress/) in November 2020,\nA genetically edited form of a herpes simplex virus (HSV) has outperformed a leading vaccine candidate in a new preclinical study by researchers at the University of Cincinnati, Northwestern University, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The vaccine, called R2, is a form of the herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) virus that causes cold sores around the lip, but can cross-protect against HSV type 2 (HSV-2), the sexually transmitted type of HSV that is usually responsible for genital herpes.\nMany have noted that new mRNA technology created as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic has [the potential to accelerate vaccine development for other diseases](https://globalnews.ca/news/7869139/mrna-vaccines-cancer-flu-covid19/).\nWhile HSV-1, and the oral herpes it causes, may not at first sound like an urgent vaccine target, HSV-1 has been implicated as a leading cause of Alzheimers, especially in people who carry [Apolipoprotein E4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apolipoprotein_E). These research papers summarize the state of the current evidence,\n[HSV-1 and Alzheimer’s disease: more than a hypothesis](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4019841/)\n[Corroboration of a Major Role for Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 in Alzheimer’s Disease](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6202583/)\nThe development of an effective HSV-1 vaccine could therefore greatly reduce the number of Alzheimers cases. If the vaccine worked like the [Shingles vaccine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine), then it may even prevent Alzheimers among people who take the vaccine after already being infected with HSV-1.\nWhen will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?\nThis question resolves on the date during which the FDA approves a vaccine intended to prevent HSV-1 infection, which includes emergency authorization.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:30.336Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:35.474Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitfinex is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. Their customers' money has been stolen or lost in several incidents.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:40.591Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. On April 14, 2021, Coinbase went public on the Nasdaq exchange via a direct listing.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:45.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "BitMEX is a cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:50.862Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange. In August 2018 it became a publicly listed Hong Kong company.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:05:55.979Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform. Polymarket has grown to host more than $100 million in total volume to date.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ coins, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market?\n---Market is considered to be \"wrongfully resolved\" if Polymarket confirms that or if a supermajority of Metaculus moderators/admins (2/3) thinks that the resolution does not correspond to resolution criteria.\n------This question will not resolve positively if the affected users are compensated within a week after the problem is noticed (e.g. on Polymarket Discord). \n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the platform ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their coins &c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's coins would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \nIf no such qualifying event occurs before January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n[Edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-27: clarified that a supermajority is 2/3.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:01.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7242/usd--of-cofer-q42021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supply of US dollars more than many other central banks without risk of inflation. This arrangement is a cornerstone of the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) \nIn Q4 of 2020, according to [IMF Reports](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) US dollars were about 56.7% of all official foreign currency reserves.\nThis question will resolve to the percent of all Official Foreign Exchange Reserves held as US Dollars as indicated in official IMF sources for Q4 of 2031.\nThe intent of this question in to assess if substantial change to the Bretton Woods System is anticipated by Q4 of 2031 on the part of Metaculus predictors.\nWhat Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the Official Currency Reserve held in US dollars in Q4 of 2031.\nThis question will be judged by looking at the updated version of [IMF COFER](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) and dividing claims in dollars by Total Foreign Currency Reserves.\nIf the IMF cease publishing official figures on COFER this quesion resolves as ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:06.479Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-22T23:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-05-22T23:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Democratic Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Democrats.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\nIf both elected senators are members of a Democratic Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party)), they will be considered Democrats for this question, assuming the Democratic Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:11.694Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\nIf both elected senators are members of a Repubilcan Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party) for the Democratic Party), they will be considered Republicans for this question, assuming the Republican Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:16.834Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7247/customer-base-of-ai-assistants-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One natural use case of AI systems are virtual assistants:\nAn intelligent virtual assistant (IVA) or intelligent personal assistant (IPA) is a software agent that can perform tasks or services for an individual based on commands or questions. [[source]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_assistant)\nThere is already a broad user base as of the pre-installed virtual assistants from Apple, Amazon, Windows and Google. \nAs of 2017, the capabilities and usage of virtual assistants are expanding rapidly, with new products entering the market and a strong emphasis on both email and voice user interfaces. Apple and Google have large installed bases of users on smartphones. Microsoft has a large installed base of Windows-based personal computers, smartphones and smart speakers. Amazon has a large install base for smart speakers.[3] Conversica has over 100 million engagements via its email and sms interface Intelligent Virtual Assistants for business. [[source]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_assistant)\nHow many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?\nThis will be resolved according to the number of customers who pay(ed) specifically for the service of the AI assistant, so the purchase must be uncoupled of hardware components like speakers and screens or computing devices like smartphones. Exemplary prototypes that this question is aimed at are a software firm developing an alternative to Siri, or [Replika](https://replika.ai/), an app that offers to build a virtual replica of a human that you can interact with via chat and voice calls.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:21.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7250/ban-on-genetically-unmodified-humans/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of [intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) and [mental illness](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/about/advisory-boards-and-groups/namhc/reports/genetics-and-mental-disorders-report-of-the-national-institute-of-mental-healths-genetics-workgroup). Many physical traits, such as [height](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-height/), [attractiveness](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6448827/), [strength](https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2007/03000/genetic_roles_in_muscle_strength.8.aspx), and even [longevity](https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/longevity/) likewise strongly depend on the genes we have.\nAs the human genome and related human biological areas of inquiry became better understood, genetic engineering has become known. In the case of traits affected by simple genetic factors, it has been possible for years to change these genes, and the resulting trait(s) expressed, by means such as CRISPR/Cas9.\nThe pace of genetic engineering research, as measured by papers published worldwide, shows a clear trend to be growing. There is every reason to believe that as a result of this research trend, genetic engineering technology will tend to become safer, more powerful, and less expensive with time.\nHuman reproduction as we typically know it results in one's genes constituting a mixture of two previously existing humans' genes which were themselves selected in this manner and so on. Artificial means of reproduction still rely on the bulk DNA transfers from existing humans. Presently, genetic engineering for new humans is [exceptional](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1), as well as taboo. \nThe gaussian distribution of genetic traits means that most humans won't have the most advantageous genes in most areas. Further, rather undesirable traits are ubiquitous: we all age.\nIf genetic engineering reaches the level where it is possible to safely and reliably eliminate the possibility of traits widely considered undesirable, such as predisposition toward schizophrenia, cystic fibrosis, or intellectual disability, there is good reason to think that humans may consider such genetic modification an ethical imperative. This is one scenario.\nHuman intelligence is one of the most complicated constructs of substantial genetic determination. Even so, it is possible that humanity could come by a sufficient understanding of the relationship to set humans-to-be with brains optimized to be as smart as possible. It may not be so easy to reach a consensus recognizing these types of modifications as ethnically necessary.\nOf course, it goes on. Any desirable trait controlled by genetics can in principle be added by genetic engineering, and any undesirable trait removed. Consequently, the space for possible legal mandates in this field is immense. \nOn environment: redwoods have genetics to grow very tall, but if you take one to the desert, it won't work very well (or at all). So while environment interacts with genes, the genes provide the foundation for what the environment has to work with.\nBy the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2100, any jurisdiction passes any law(s) requiring all births to eliminate or promote certain gene(s) through gene editing techniques. \"Gene editing techniques\" means here [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing), or any techniques which directly and selectively modify targeted genes. The genetic engineering techniques may occur at any time in the individual's lifespan, including before birth, after birth, or before conception. This question will only include jurisdictions which govern a population of at least 1 million people at the time the law is in effect.\nLaws only requiring genetic testing or sterilizing/forbidding reproduction by individuals or couples carrying certain genes are not included for the purposes of this question. Forms of artificial selection such as [embryo selection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation#Embryo_selection), or abortion/[extermination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide) of non-compliant genomes are not included for the purposes of this question.\nTo resolve this question, the relevant law must be enforced for at least one birth. That is, if a law is passed but struck down by a court before it is applied, or if such a law is passed but never enforced, this will not resolve the question. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:32.387Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7251/1000-transactions-per-second-in-ethereum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, transaction prices on Ethereum limit what can be done. High transaction prices are largely driven by a maximum amount of transactions per second that can be processed which is over the month of May 2021 between 15 and 20. \nWith Polkadot being able to process well over 1000 transactions per second it's clearly possible for a smart contract platform to be able to process more transactions.\nEthereum plans to allow for more transactions with the adoption of Ethereum2.\nWhen will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?\nThis prediction will resolve positively when [https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transa…](https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transactions-per-second) shows Ethereum being able to handle 1000 or more transactions per second for 7 consecutive days.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:37.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7252/gap-between-agi-creation-and-reveal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Development of the first artificial general intelligence may share several parallels with the development of the first nuclear weapon. The basic concept of nuclear weapons [existed in the popular sphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Set_Free) many years before the [first successful test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_%28nuclear_test%29), which itself preceded [public announcement](https://www.osti.gov/opennet/manhattan-project-history/Events/1945-present/public_reaction.htm) of the weapon after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima by some three weeks. AGI's speculated disruptive potential is [very high](https://www.nscai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full-Report-Digital-1.pdf), and heads of state have [publicly stated](https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/4/16251226/russia-ai-putin-rule-the-world) that the realization of AGI has not only critical national security implications but implications affecting the future of humanity.\nFor these reasons, and because the capability to make nuclear weapons was not immediately announced to the public, it is plausible that a gap between attainment of capability and announcement of capability could exist after creation of the first AGI--whether or not its creation takes place in an adversarial context.\n50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?\nThe rev slider quantity is hours. Keep in mind that the precision of the future given dates of creation and public awareness are unspecified and unknown. For the purpose of resolution, the lowest credible value, rounded as precision demands, shall be used, as determined by mods. A 0-hour public discovery is represented by the minimum prediction value, as log scale can't be used if 0 is included. The upper boundary is open for predictions exceeding 10000 hours. \nThis question resolves positive if all three of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1) an AGI is created\n2) this AGI becomes public knowledge by any means\n3) 50 years after 2) there exists historical consensus on the dates of 1) and 2).\nMod discretion reserved for what is or isn't an AGI, since it's not completely clear what future definition will be accepted. This question assumes that if AGI happens there will be a widespread consensus recognizing it as such.\nResolves ambiguous if no consensus on AGI's status as such. Resolves ambiguous if no consensus on AGI's creation time, and / or if there is no consensus on when the public becomes aware of AGI.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:42.754Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7286/1021-bytes-destroyed-by-single-event/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The amount of data in the world is not precisely known, but should be in the [multi-zettabyte range](https://martech.zone/ibm-big-data-marketing/).\nThe amount of data we consume and create shows a strong [growth trend](https://www.statista.com/statistics/871513/worldwide-data-created/). \nHumanity has been known to [lose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Alexandria) large amounts of information [before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baghdad_%281258%29).\nWhen will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?\nThis question resolves when either two credible media sources or a peer-reviewed paper report that at least one zettabyte (10^21 bytes) of humanity's digital information has been irrevocably destroyed as the result of a single event. \nAdditional resolution details:\n---All data in question must have been destroyed within any window of 48 contiguous hours. \n---The information can reside on any number of systems located anywhere. \n---In order for this question to resolve positively, the information cannot have been intentionally destroyed by the legitimate users of the system as part of normal operation of the system. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:47.923Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \nIf there is no positive confirmation by 31 December 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous. \nWill the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:06:53.894Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.\n[From Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election):\nThe next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.\nAll 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.\nThe incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote.\nWill the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?\nThis question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition.\nIt resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition\nIf no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.\nIf the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time.\n\"The next federal election\" refers to the election for members of the House of Representatives of the 47th parliament of Australia.\nNormally this would be at the same time as a half-Senate election (or a full Senate election in the case of a double dissolution), but in the unlikely event that the elections are held at different times, this question refers to the election for the House of Representatives only.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:04.294Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7296/chinese-yuan--of-cofer-q42031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supply of US dollars more than many other central banks without risk of inflation. This arrangement is a cornerstone of the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system). However, the use of the Chinese Yuan (renminbi) is growing quite rapidly. \nIn Q4 of 2020, according to [IMF Reports](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) US dollars were about 56.7% of all official foreign currency reserves.\nThis question will resolve to the percent of all Official Foreign Exchange Reserves held as Chinese Yuan as indicated in official IMF sources for Q4 of 2031.\nThe intent of this question in to assess if substantial change to the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) is anticipated by Q4 of 2031 on the part of Metaculus predictors.\nWhat Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the Official Currency Reserve held in Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031.\nThis question will be judged by looking at the updated version of [IMF COFER](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) and dividing claims in dollars by Total Foreign Currency Reserves.\nIf the IMF cease publishing official figures on COFER this quesion resolves as ambiguous. This question will include all Chinese currencies tracked as part of COFER by the IMF. Thus if the Yuan is replace by another currency the important figure is Chinese currencies included in COFER figures by the IMF. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:09.421Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-22T07:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-05-22T07:50:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7299/roman-space-telescope-launch-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Grace_Roman_Space_Telescope) (Roman Space Telescope, previously known as WFIRST) is an infrared space telescope currently under development by NASA. The telescope is planned (as of June 2021) to feature a 2.4 meter wide primary meter, the same size as that of the [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). The two major instruments planned for the Roman Space Telescope will be a camera with a field of view 100 times larger than Hubble's, and a coronagraph allowing the direct imaging of exoplanets a billion times fainter than their host star. Though the [FAQ](https://roman.gsfc.nasa.gov/faq.html) of the telescope's website claims \"Preparations are on track for a mid-2020s launch\", previous large NASA astronomy missions such as Hubble and [JWST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) have seen delays of several years.\nWhen will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched?\nIn line with the [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/) on JWST, this resolves when the Roman Space Telescope is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the Roman Space Telescope reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the Kármán line) through any other mean. The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that the Roman Space Telescope is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any space telescope ever called the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope or WFIRST that has a 2.4 meter wide primary mirror and at least one of the two instruments described above will count as the telescope in question. If the telescope is launched in multiple pieces, the launch date of the primary mirror will be used. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:19.750Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced.\nWill Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media sources indicate that either Bill or Melinda Gates have created a separate charitable entity with at least $10bn in assets or total grants, distinct from the existing foundation by December 2030. Exactly one of Bill or Melinda must be actively involved in this new organisation for this to count. Legal restructuring of the existing Gates foundation do not count, if it is still centrally managed by a board containing both Bill and Melinda or uses the name \"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation\" or similar.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:24.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \nA 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988.\nWill there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?\nThis resolves positively if global meat production as per OurWorldInData is below 50% of its 2018 level (i.e., is 171.21 million tons or lower) in any year between 2019 and 2040 (inclusive). If OurWorldInData ceases publishing this data by this date, admins can choose a credible alternative source for resolution.\n14 June 2021 edit: Cultivated meat, which is produced from [in vitro cell culture of animal cells rather than from the slaughter of livestock](https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/), does not count toward the overall global meat production figure. Only meat coming from slaughtered animals will count, as is currently the case with Our World's in Data figure of 340M tons as of 2018. Since this 340M tons figure does not include fish/seafood, data from [FAOSTAT as tracked by OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/seafood-and-fish-production-thousand-tonnes?country=~OWID_WRL) — in this case, 155M tons of seafood/fish (2013 figure) — will be added to the meat figure. Again, cultivated fish/seafood does not count. This question will not resolve until 2040 data is available for both meat and fish/seafood production.\nIf OWID revises their 2018 estimate at any point, or an alternative source is to be used, that source's most up-to-date 2018 value should be used where possible to ensure an appropriate comparison. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:30.276Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\nWe acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\nThis improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html).\nWill a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?\nThis question resolves positively, if before June 1st 2031, a reliable paper, blog post, or some other article appears in the literature indicating that researchers had digitally mapped a section of an animal connectome using some high-resolution scanning technology, such by [serial section electron microscopy](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jmi.122240), and the size of that map meets or exceeds one exabyte. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nExtra junk information, such as a researcher adding 999 petabytes of zeros at the end of their file (as unlikely as this may be), cannot count towards resolution, and admins will use their discretion in this regard. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:35.415Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will take the EA survey in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8FzcfA8wckTJi/ea-survey-2020-demographics) survey collected 2,166 valid responses from EAs.\nThis question asks about the number of valid responses the 2025 edition of the survey will receive.\nHow many people will take the EA survey in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the number of valid responses claimed by the publishers of the EA survey in 2025. If the survey does not take place, the question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/) for a similar question about the 2030 EA Survey.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:40.581Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will take the EA survey in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8FzcfA8wckTJi/ea-survey-2020-demographics) survey collected 2,166 valid responses from EAs.\nThis question asks about the number of valid responses the 2030 edition of the survey will receive.\nHow many people will take the EA survey in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the number of valid responses claimed by the publishers of the EA survey in 2030. If the survey does not take place, the question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/) for a similar question about the 2025 EA Survey.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:46.213Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7319/date-of-decline-of-cafos-by-90/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [concentrated animal feeding operation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation) (CAFO) is an intensive animal feeding operation in which over 1000 animal units are confined for over 45 days a year. An animal unit is the equivalent of 1000 pounds of \"live\" animal weight. A thousand animal units equates to 700 dairy cows, 1000 meat cows, 2500 pigs weighing more than 55 pounds (25 kg), 10,000 pigs weighing under 55 pounds, 10,000 sheep, 55,000 turkeys, 125,000 chickens, or 82,000 egg laying hens or pullets. There were 21,465 CAFOs in the US in 2020, [according to the US Environmental Protection Agency](https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2021-05/documents/cafo_status_report_2020.pdf). This question asks when that number will decline by 90% (i.e, to 2,146 or fewer CAFOs in the US).\nWhen will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels?\nThis question resolves to the date when the estimated number of CAFOs in the US declines to 2,146 or fewer, according to the EPA.\nThis exact date is to be arrived at by assuming a linear decline over the interim between published year end reports on [the EPA website.](https://www.epa.gov/npdes/npdes-cafo-regulations-implementation-status-reports). E.g. if there are 2,148 CAFOs in the year end 2025 report, and 2144 CAFOs as of year end 2026, it should resolve to 30th June 2026.\nIf the EPA ceases publishing such data, any other US government source approved by moderators should be used. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:51.352Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\nThe speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\nFormer President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\nTrump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years.\nWill Donald Trump become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15th 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:07:56.627Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On June 4th 2021, the [U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are [calling it a potential game changer](https://news.yahoo.com/know-semaglutide-diabetes-drug-being-185753456.html) for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide [can be taken orally.](https://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/38/1/109)\n[The top 300 most prescribed drugs](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Top300Drugs.aspx) in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions. Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?\nResolves positively if semaglutide, or a semaglutide-containing compound formulation approved for weight loss by the FDA, is among the top 300 most prescribed drugs in America for any calendar year up to and including 2031.\nPreferred source: [ClinCalc Drug Stats database](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/About.aspx). If it becomes unavailable, paywalled, discredited, etc, try to resolve according to another source that ultimately uses the [Medical Expenditure Panel Survey](https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/) data from US HHS. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:01.839Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently comes from [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/), a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder [Dustin Moskovitz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Moskovitz) and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$21.9bn](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=1d9ff1161dd3) as of June 2021. They donated $271 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) and $298 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their grants database. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose total grants for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:07.039Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently comes from [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/), a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder [Dustin Moskovitz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Moskovitz) and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$21.9bn](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=1d9ff1161dd3) as of June 2021. They donated $271 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) and $298 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their grants database. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose total grants for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous. \nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:12.216Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7328/global-democracy-share-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Our World In Data claims that in 2015, 55.8% of people [lived in a democracy](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). From OWID: \nDuring the 19th century, most of the world’s population lived in colonial empires, autocracies, or anocracies. The late 19th century saw a limited expansion of democracies. And since that time, there has been a general upward trend in the share of the world population living under democracies, save for the period before and during World War II.\nDuring the second half of the 20th century, colonies gained independence and more countries became democracies. Today, more than half the world’s population live in a democracy. And of those [23.23%] who still live in autocracies, four-fifths are Chinese. \nThis question asks how this data will look for 2040.\nWhat fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?\nThis question will resolve to the fraction of people Our World In Data considers to be living in a democracy as of 2040. If OWID no longer exists or no longer publishes a value for this question, admins may choose a credible alternative data source.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:17.387Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP.\nWill one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if a single government rules over 80% of Earth population and 80% of Earth GDP at any point before January 1st 2100. An organisation would be considered an Earth government if it has supreme military authority in its territory, a unified foreign policy and the power to collect taxes and make laws. This would include the 2021 United States and exclude the 2021 European Union or United Nations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:22.631Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7332/money-offered-through-ea-prize-platform/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [an effective altruist forum post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Jsd5EGKCRnSspxEB8/a-proposal-for-a-small-inducement-prize-platform), I (Matthew Barnett) proposed a design for facilitating small inducement prizes. [Inducement prizes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inducement_prize_contest) are prizes awarded to individuals or teams for accomplishing some feat, specified ahead of time.\nDespite their long history, inducement prizes are currently much less popular than grants as a method for funding basic science. Yet, some economists have argued that they provide advantages over these traditional funding sources, as they can more efficiently solve the [principal agent problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem) for research.\nIf a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?\nFor the purpose of this question, assume that a public platform with the following characteristics is created at some point, and is announced on the Effective Altruist Forum. In order to count, the platform must,\n--- \nAllow users to pose an open research problem and provide a prize for anyone who can provide at least a partial solution to the problem.\n--- \nProvide a system of escrow and arbitration, mirroring the suggestion given in Matthew Barnett's EA Forum post. More specifically, the platform must offer (1) a means of holding inducement prize money in reserve, and disbursing the money to participants who satisfied the conditions specified in the inducement prize contest (2) a means of appointing a trusted arbitrator with the power to resolve disputes arising in regards to who is disbursed money and in what amounts.\nAssume that approximately one year after the launch of this platform is announced on the Effective Altruism Forum, the administrators of the platform reveal the total amount of prize money disbursed on the platform since the announcement. This question will then resolve as the number of US dollars disbursed as prizes, before fees and taxes, since the announcement of the platform on the Effective Altruist Forum.\nIn case some precursor to the platform is launched or announced, but does not include at least one of the necessary conditions outlined above, the platform is not said to have been launched yet. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:33.074Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-10T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US stock markets have operated almost continuously since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1817, with the longest single period of downtime being for 4 months at the outset of World War 1 [in 1914](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-stock-exchange-shut-down-1914-2014-7?r=US&IR=T).\nWill there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a period of at least 12 consecutive months before the end of 2120 during which there are no public US stock exchanges open for trading.\nWe'll use the definition of stock market/exchange on [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp) ([archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20210518172600/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp)):\nThe stock market refers to the collection of markets and exchanges where regular activities of buying, selling, and issuance of shares of publicly-held companies take place.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:38.272Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2120-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:43.678Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.\nWill Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:48.795Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7336/good-ventures-donations-5-of-assets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. Dustin Moskovitz has a net worth of $19.5 billion in June 2021, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/dustin-a-moskovitz/). According to Open Philanthropy, they intended on founding Good Ventures to give away most of their wealth [during their lifetime](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/who-we-are). This question asks when they will first succeed in granting 5% of their wealth in a 12 month period.\nWhen will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year?\nThis questions resolves to the date when the trailing 12 month total of donations made by Good Ventures according to their Grants Database exceeds 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth on that date according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\nIf this question does not resolve positively by 01/01/2040, it resolves as \">01/01/2040\".\nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires index is no longer publishing, an alternative source such as Forbes may be used. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:08:54.066Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.\nWill there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation other than Good Ventures, sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over 250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example. \nA donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count). \nAn organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.\nBy way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the [Gates Foundation](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/), but include [Open Philanthropy](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/), [Longview Philanthropy](https://www.longview.org/) and [The Life You Can Save](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/) as of 2021.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-28: clarified that Good Ventures doesn't count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:04.718Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7341/percent-of-gdp-us-spends-on-healthcare-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States [currently spends](health spending) about 17% of its GDP on health spending, which is up from about 6% in 1970. This growth is substantially faster than similar industrialized nations. Economists have pointed the blame at [various sources](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/080615/6-reasons-healthcare-so-expensive-us.asp), mostly pointing to rising prescription drug, device and test costs, rising compensation for doctors and nurses, and administrative waste.\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the percent value that the United States spends on healthcare, given as a fraction of GDP for the year 2035. Reliable sources used for resolution will be, in order of priority,\n---Some official cost estimate given by the US federal government \n---Some official cost estimate given by the OECD \n---A highly reputable study that estimates healthcare spending costs \nFor the purpose of this question, healthcare consists of those activities conducted by paid professionals in the treatment, prevention and cure of diseases, excluding personal trainers and those in unlicensed or pseudo-scientific professions. In case this definition is not specific enough, or indeed accurate according to general wisdom, admins should use their discretion in determining which cost estimate is best.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:09.863Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will public knowledge be in the year 2061 of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7342/resolution-of-classified-us-satellites/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Between 1959 and 1986, the U.S. launched their first optical spy satellites. The classified “Keyhole” satellites took photographs on film and dropped them to earth where they were retrieved mid-air by airplanes.\nThe Keyhole satellites were declassified between 1992 and 2011. At that time, it became public record that the satellites took photos at pixel resolutions as high as 0.6 m.\nFor comparison, during the 1970s and 1980s, the publicly available Landsat satellites had pixel resolutions between 30 m and 80 m. Currently, the highest resolution commercial satellite in operation is 31 cm with satellites of 29 cm resolution planned for launch in 2021.\nSince the ability to detect objects from space depends on the image's pixel resolution, the ability to predict what is currently detectable by the U.S. government is related to our prediction of the available satellite imagery resolution.\nWhat will public knowledge be in the year 2061, about the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021?\nThis question will resolve as the highest pixel resolution in centimeters as published by a United States government agency. The satellite must have been classified and operational for at least 6 months between 2011-2021.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of a square image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:15.076Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2051-12-31T23:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2061-12-31T23:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7343/accuracy-of-epas-methane-emissions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_emissions),\nIncreasing methane emissions are a major contributor to the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, and are responsible for up to one-third of near-term global heating. During 2019, about 60% (360 million tons) of methane released globally was from human activities, while natural sources contributed about 40% (230 million tons).\nIn 2018, [research revealed](https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-studies) that the US oil & gas industry emitted 13 million metric tons of methane. This is 60% more than the estimate of 8 million metric tons by the Environmental Protection Agency.\nSatellites can be used along with other measurement methods to more accurately measure methane emissions. Current satellites with these capabilities are TROPOMI, SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, GHGSat, PRISMA, and EnMap. In late 2022, the Environmental Defense Fund is scheduled to launch the [MethaneSAT](https://www.methanesat.org/fit-with-other-missions/) satellite. It will be able to detect methane at a 2ppb threshold at a 1 km pixel resolution. It will have a highest pixel resolution of 400 m x 100 m, a swath of 200 km, and a 7 day revisit time.\nU.S. greenhouse gas emissions, as published by the Environmental Protection Agency, can be seen here: [https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/](https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/)\nHow much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025?\nThis question will resolve as the ratio of methane emissions in the United States as measured in the first peer-reviewed publication report measurements, compared to the measurements reported by the Environmental Protection Agency. This must be over a time period of at least 12 months between 2021-2025 inclusively.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of an image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:21.030Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:38:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:38:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7344/resolution-of-commercial-satellites-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1972, a joint NASA/USGS program launched the [Landsat-1 satellite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsat_program#Satellite_chronology). During the 1970s and 1980s the Landsat satellites imaged the earth at pixel resolutions ranging from 30 m to 80 m.\nLaunched in 2014, Maxar’s [WorldView-3](https://cdn1-originals.webdamdb.com/13264_95553821?cache=1597094744&response-content-disposition=inline;filename%253D10028-ds-wv3-08-2020.pdf&response-content-type=application/pdf&Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cCo6Ly9jZG4xLW9yaWdpbmFscy53ZWJkYW1kYi5jb20vMTMyNjRfOTU1NTM4MjE~Y2FjaGU9MTU5NzA5NDc0NCZyZXNwb25zZS1jb250ZW50LWRpc3Bvc2l0aW9uPWlubGluZTtmaWxlbmFtZSUyNTNEMTAwMjgtZHMtd3YzLTA4LTIwMjAucGRmJnJlc3BvbnNlLWNvbnRlbnQtdHlwZT1hcHBsaWNhdGlvbi9wZGYiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjIxNDc0MTQ0MDB9fX1dfQ__&Signature=Q9fVHxWsPxBLBdSBwsZr0bgpRIbfWIoBkUiQBgqEH~OouLxyI4rjYZW1gJvRugtk7FyDsSAHG62bjKomen-Ag6ME~udDefKsAEoDDikQtR7vWSns~MwQov7XS6FunxW9mVeZhfYUM4hjpBL2t9sxTTr9t4zcFIQC06XLk3GCJiawuWyk1rsiqcuvAYcwUJ0Kyp0QPXmyytgrWBN0VGxvTubXPfyvcvhWMgDRB0EK00kdfkrtbz9w1~V~V2P60qJ2kbT9gT5gGZZ694Tszx7iPYA30ZkrKUsg3mKn9d3sWcE0SEzqYhar8kiH-qhHbIxTmQWj4NVA4V9aU2PdjBGtmg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAI2ASI2IOLRFF2RHA) currently collects the world’s highest resolution commercial satellite imagery. While designed to collect imagery at 31 cm resolution, until June 2014 the U.S. Government restricted the sale of commercial panchromatic imagery to 50 cm resolution. After June 2014, Maxar (then DigitalGlobe) was permitted to sell imagery at 31 cm resolution.\nMaxar plans on launching \"WorldView Legion\" satellites starting in the fall of 2021 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. This is a program of 6 satellites with a pixel resolution of 29 cm. \nSince the ability to detect objects from space depends on the image's pixel resolution, the ability to predict what will be detectable in the future is related to our prediction of the available satellite imagery resolution.\nWhat will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050?\nThis question resolves as the highest pixel resolution in centimeters, either available commercially to non-governmental entities, or otherwise publicly available, in a NATO country, from an operational satellite in 2050. This is restricted to NATO countries as governments can restrict the sale of satellite imagery.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of an image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:26.230Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2042-12-31T23:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:54:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7382/non-transitory-inflation-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "\"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.\" ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp))\nThe question concerns the likelyhood of the year-over-year U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") being above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nWill the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?\nWe will use the not-seasonally-adjusted figures (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)) for resolution.\nThis question resolves positively if the YoY Core CPI rises above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months between August 2021 and December 2023, included.\nThis question resolves negatively if otherwise.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-20: Clarified that we'll use not-seasonally-adjusted figures and that the clock starts in August 2021.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:32.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7383/peru-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Republic of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru) is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south and west by the Pacific Ocean. Peru is a megadiverse country with habitats ranging from the arid plains of the Pacific coastal region in the west to the peaks of the Andes mountains extending from the north to the southeast of the country to the tropical Amazon Basin rainforest in the east with the Amazon river. At 1.28 million square kilometres, Peru is the 19th-largest country in the world, and the third-largest in South America. Peru has a [population of approximately 33 million](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/peru-population/) as of 2021.\n[The economy of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Peru) is the 47th-largest in the world (ranked by Purchasing Power Parity), and the income level is classified as upper middle by the World Bank.\nIn June 2021, Peru [narrowly elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-socialists-cheer-election-win-conservatives-pledge-fight-2021-06-13/?taid=60c66d2935ede90001f5fc12&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter) [Pedro Castillo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_Castillo) as President. Castillo is associated with the left-wing [Free Peru National Political Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Peru). The party describes itself as being \"a left-wing socialist organization\" that embraces Marxism–Leninism and Mariáteguism. It values democracy, decentralization, internationalism, sovereignty, humanism and anti-imperialism. Following his success in the first round of presidential elections in 2021, Pedro Castillo has said that he opposes communism, and has distanced himself from far-leftists in the party. Castillo has also [said that he will not seek to nationalize companies and will honour the rule of law, and will reject the policies of Chavismo.](https://www.reuters.com/world/no-chavismo-here-peru-socialist-candidate-castillo-seeks-calm-jittery-markets-2021-04-22/)\nPeru's [GDP per capita (PPP) in current international dollars](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=PE) for the year 2019 was estimated as $13,416 by the World Bank.\nWhat will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030?\nThis question resolves as [Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) in current international dollars](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=PE) as reported by the World Bank for the year 2030. If World Bank figures are unavailable, figures from the United Nations or International Monetary Fund are also acceptable. If none of these organizations produce an estimate of Peru's PPP GDP per capita for 2030, administrators shall select a credible estimate. If no credible estimates are available, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:37.451Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7384/alien-tech-in-solar-system-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Defense Department started collecting UFO/UAP reports in 2007 as part of the [Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Aerospace_Threat_Identification_Program) and the later [Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidentified_Aerial_Phenomena_Task_Force). News of these programs and associated leaked videos have brought unprecedented mainstream attention to UFOs/UAP.\nBefore 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system?\nThis question will resolve positively iff by 2030, 4 credible media sources report that non-human extra-terrestrial technology has been discovered in the solar system (within Neptune's orbit). This may pertain to current claims of UFOs/UAP, events between now and 2030, or discoveries of archaelogical evidence (defunct or non-operational technology, found on earth or in the solar system). This question resolves negatively if there are no sufficient reports.\nfor this question, credible media sources will include:\n---The Associated Press \n---The New York Times \n---The Wall Street Journal \n---The Washington Post \n---The Los Angeles Times \n---Time Magazine \n---The Economist \n---The Times of London \n---The Financial Times \n---Le Monde \n---or Die Zeit \nAdditionally, A report from a branch of the federal government that claims that aliens are the most likely explanation of a reported observation will count as a source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:42.742Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Embryo selection is](https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection):\nA few eggs are extracted from a woman and fertilized; each resulting sibling embryo is biopsied for a few cells which are sequenced. A single polygenic score is used to rank the embryos by predicted future trait-value, and surviving embryos are implanted one by one until a healthy live birth happens or there are no more embryos. By starting with the top-ranked embryo, an average gain is realized.\nThe basic form of this technology, involving simple genetic testing for karyotype (chromosome numbers) and specific (near)-monogenic diseases (e.g. Tay-Sachs) has been used in humans for years. However, the most recent iteration that involves scoring embryos for polygenic traits (e.g. height, intelligence, type 2 diabetes) has only been used a few times so far.\nThere is another upcoming technology in this area: iterated embryos selection. Here we select on embryos while also applying in vitro gametogenesis to generate gametes (eggs and spermatozoa) from embryos, thus skipping the step of having to birth a human:\n(Also called “whizzogenetics”, “in vitro eugenics”, or “in vitro breeding”/IVB.) A large set of cells, perhaps from a diverse set of donors, is regressed to stem cells, turned into both sperm/egg cells, fertilizing each other, and then the top-ranked embryos are selected, yielding a moderate gain; those embryos are not implanted but regressed back to stem cells, and the cycle repeats. Each “generation” the increases accumulate; after perhaps a dozen generations, the trait-values have increased many SDs, and the final embryos are then implanted.\nThis approach is nearing reality, as various academic publications note, e.g. [\"Artificially produced gametes in mice, humans and other species\" (2021)](https://www.publish.csiro.au/rd/RD20265), [\"Overview of In Vitro Gametogenesis in Mice, Future Applications, and Related Social Changes and Ethics\" (2020)](https://repository.yu.edu/handle/20.500.12202/5635), [\"Roadmap of germline development and in vitro gametogenesis from pluripotent stem cells\" (2019)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/andr.12726). There are other uses than genetic selection, since this method allows people to self-fertilize (generate both gametes from one person), and fertilize using homosexual parents (one supplies each gamete type). Bioethicists are already discussing such matters, e.g. [\"Drawing the line on in vitro gametogenesis\" (2020)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bioe.12679). Thus, to better forecast the potential of human iterated embryo selection, we care about when the component technology will be ready for use.\nWhen will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?\n---A trustworthy report of a case of human in vitro gametogenesis leading to a live birth. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:47.855Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7389/biden--trump-us-google-search-ratio-q3-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Throughout his campaigns and Presidency, Donald Trump commanded extraordinary public interest. As of summer 2021, Trump maintains an unusually large public profile as an ex-President, and is widely acknowledged as the single most influential figure for Republican party voters. His Google Trends results reflect this; since Biden's Inauguration Day, [Trump and Biden's average Google search volumes have kept pace.](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2021-01-20%202021-06-14&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F012gx2,%2Fm%2F0cqt90)\nWhat will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?\nAfter September 30th 2022, Google Trends will be queried for the United States during the period July 1st 2022 to September 30th 2022 and the topics \"Joe Biden (46th U.S. president)\" and \"Donald Trump (45th U.S. president)\". This question will resolve as the ratio of Biden's to Trump's average interest scores over that period. For example, if this question had been asked for [Q3 2020](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2020-07-01%202020-09-30&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F012gx2,%2Fm%2F0cqt90), it would have resolved as 11:33 or 0.3̅.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:53.611Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7391/next-texas-electricity-grid-outage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "ERCOT, the electricity provider for over 90 percent of Texas [declared an Emergency Emergency Alert 3 (EEA 3)](https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1361215084010352644?s=19) and enacted rolling outages due to the extremely cold weather on February 15 2021 at 1:25 am CST. This was ultimately resolved a few days later. These rolling electricity outages caused billions of dollars in damage to the Texas economy.\nMany plants remain damaged from the winter store and grid instability leading to speculation about potential future outages.\nWhen will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages?\nThis question will resolve when @ERCOT_ISO on twitter indicates that the EEA 3 is declared, or that rotating outages are occurring gridwide, or when the same is indicated on [ercot.com](http://ercot.com).\nThis question is for supply shortage induced rotating outages. If a local portion of the grid sustains rotating outages then this will not count. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:09:58.793Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-10-13T04:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-17T02:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7396/ea-forum-value-drift-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) is a centre of discussion for the Effective Altruism community. Users posts and comments are subject to upvotes and downvotes, and users with well received content accumulate [karma](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/about#Karma)\nThey formerly had a karma leaderboard but it was discontinued. Currently Issa Rice maintains a karma leaderboard [here](https://eaforum.issarice.com/userlist?sort=karma). The karma leaderboard ranking of users as of June 2021 can be found in the fine print as well as in [this Google Sheet with user IDs](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19fT-ZUlVRZUJ9DxTPvRJoE-gfTAaEHFfXhN_TDa_ARs/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question asks how many of the current top 50 users by karma as of June 15 2021 (see fine print for list of usernames) will have at least 1 post or 5 comments in the calendar year 2026, conditional on the EA Forum still existing. For reference, as of June 15 2021, all of the top 50 users meet this criteria for the preceding 12 months.\nHow many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?\nThis question resolves to the number of the top 50 EA forum users as of June 15 2021 who make at least one post or five comments in the calendar year 2026, conditional on the forum having any posts in that year.\nThe list of users this question should resolve based on:\naarongertler, michaela, peter_wildeford, habryka, khorton, larks, pablo_stafforini, linch, max_daniel, julia_wise, benjamin_todd, halstead, jonas-vollmer, michelle_hutchinson, ryancarey, milan_griffes, michaelstjules, buck, gregory_lewis, saulius, carl_shulman, robert_wiblin, william_macaskill, michaelplant, willbradshaw, denise_melchin, richard_ngo, owen_cotton-barratt, david_moss, edoarad, ben_west, wei_dai, oagr, kbog, michaeldickens, nunosempere, john_maxwell, joey, davidnash, stefan_schubert, cullen_okeefe, briantan, weeatquince, haukehillebrandt, jason-schukraft, ben_kuhn, agb, jeff_kaufman, alexrjl, jpaddison\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:03.985Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7398/when-will-computers-be-competent-programmers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938),\nWhile programming is one of the most broadly applicable skills in modern society, modern machine learning models still cannot code solutions to basic problems. Despite its importance, there has been surprisingly little work on evaluating code generation, and it can be difficult to accurately assess code generation performance rigorously. To meet this challenge, we introduce APPS, a benchmark for code generation. Unlike prior work in more restricted settings, our benchmark measures the ability of models to take an arbitrary natural language specification and generate satisfactory Python code. [...] Recent models such as GPT-Neo can pass approximately 20% of the test cases of introductory problems, so we find that machine learning models are now beginning to learn how to code. As the social significance of automatic code generation increases over the coming years, our benchmark can provide an important measure for tracking advancements.\nThis question will resolve according to rather stringent conditions. It will use the strict accuracy on the competition coding problems which \"requires programs pass every test case\" (as defined in section 4.2 of the paper), and it will require that the model be given only one try per problem. For reference, the best model GPT-Neo 2.7B received a strict accuracy of 3.9% on introductory problems, 0.57% on interview problems, and 0.0% on competition problems.\nWhen will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?\nThis question resolves on the date during which a credible paper or document of any kind is published on the internet indicating that some computer program has exceeded a top-1 strict accuracy of 80.0% on competition coding problems found in the APPS benchmark introduced by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938). Top-1 accuracy is distinguished, as in the paper, from top-k accuracy in which k outputs from the model are generated, and the best output is selected. In the benchmark, competition coding problems are\nat the level of the most advanced high school and collegiate programming competitions, including USACO, IOI, and ACM.\nSee also these questions:\n[Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/)\n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n[When will programs write programs for us?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)\nCheating, such as a program memorizing the solutions, obviously does not count towards resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:09.122Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. On February 14th 2019, OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), which became famous within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters.\nOn the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities.\nIf GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?\nThis question resolves on the date during which OpenAI staff publish a blog post, a paper, a video, or a document of any kind, describing GPT-4 or some performance results from GPT-4. In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\". If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nSee also these questions:\n[When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/)\n[Billions of params of GPT-4 if released](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:14.278Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7402/war-between-russia-and-the-us-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/). This question asks more specifically when such a war will occur, if it does occur by 2050. Taken together, these questions can inform our views on: \n--- \nHow much people today should prioritize reducing risks from nuclear war and certain other issues (such as possible biotechnology developments)\n--- \nWhich interventions would be most effective (for example, specific diplomatic efforts in the near-term vs working more slowly towards more lasting policy changes)\nIf there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?\nThis question resolves as the year that the US and Russia enter into a war, meaning the first calendar year in which the US and Russia collectively suffer at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other, as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nIf there is no war before 2050 between the US and Russia, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:19.531Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T23:48:59.843000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-07-22T21:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. \nQuestions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea. \nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:24.737Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:35:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations. \nWill an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024 and causes at least one fatality. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or nonstate nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. \nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:29.941Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-01T21:38:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:38:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350). \nWill there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050 and causes at least one fatality in the US. This question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations before 2050. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by either state or non-state actors can count towards question resolution. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:35.105Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T21:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:45:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A nuclear detonation by a [non-state actor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but [there are conceivable scenarios in which they could](https://nonproliferation.org/understanding-nuclear-weapon-risks-non-state-actors-and-nuclear-weapons/): \nThe majority of nuclear security experts identify two primary scenarios involving nuclear weapons and non-state actors. The first scenario involves the acquisition of a nuclear device from the existing arsenals of nuclear-armed States by terrorists or other non-state actors. The second scenario envisions the construction of a crude nuclear bomb by non-state actors using special nuclear materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium (Pu). The actualization of each of these scenarios would be very difficult, and the probability of a successful theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon or manufacturing of an improvised device by non-state actors is considered to be low. Yet, this probability is not zero.\nWill a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2030, a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality in any country or area globally. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:40.251Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T21:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 a deliberate detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:45.409Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T21:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear detonation. However, it is also possible for a [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) nuclear detonation to happen without being preceded by conventional conflict, and this was a common worry during the Cold War in particular. \nWill the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?\nThis question resolves positively if the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs within three months of a fatality due to conventional conflict involving the state whose weapon is detonated and the state against which the weapon is detonated. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. A detonation by a non-state actor that has seized a state's nuclear weapon can count towards positive resolution, but a detonation of a weapon the non-state actor built themselves cannot.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs by 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, conventional conflict means any clash between opposing state forces that results in at least one fatality caused by non-nuclear weapons. This could range from minor border disputes to full-blown war. A detonation that occur while the conventional conflict is ongoing can also count towards positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:50.567Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:54:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7410/countervalue-detonations-by-pakistan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on Pakistan detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Pakistan-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:10:55.786Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T22:39:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:39:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of June 2021, there have only been two recorded offensive nuclear weapon detonations. Occurring in 1945 shortly before the end of World War II, the [US dropped two atomic bombs on the cities of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20detonated%20two,nuclear%20weapons%20in%20armed%20conflict.). These attacks would be considered [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) because of their direct targeting of non-military and/or non-industrial targets. \nTwo other possible types of targets are [counterforce targets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) and battlefield targets. Nuclear weapons have never yet been used against either of those types of targets. There is controversy over how likely it is that states would ever use nuclear weapons against battlefield targets and over whether nuclear weapons could be used against battlefield targets without the conflict then escalating to nuclear strikes on non-battlefield targets.\nWhat fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?\nThis question resolves as the proportion between 0 and 1 of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 (1-1-50) that are targeted on battlefield targets. This question will resolve ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050.\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict (unless credible media reporting widely considers a city to be the primary target of the detonation, in which case it will not be seen as a battlefield target even if it is close to a frontline). If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea.\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) nor accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will count as an \"offensive nuclear detonation\", even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by state or non-state actors can both count towards a positive resolution of this question.\nResolution criteria will come from reliable news reports or battlefield reports.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. Also note that, although the concepts of battlefield targeting and [tactical nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) are related, tactical nuclear weapons could be used against non-battlefield targets, and \"strategic\" nuclear weapons could be used against battlefield targets. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:01.102Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T22:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\nSeveral potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power. \n[A 2005 report](https://web.archive.org/web/20121108204504/http://kyl.senate.gov/legis_center/subdocs/030805_pry.pdf) also claims analysts in other states see nuclear EMP attacks as a legitimate use of nuclear weapons or are concerned that their states may be targeted by such attacks.\nWill there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the probability from 0 to 1 that at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2024.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n--- \na >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n--- \na non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \nPositive resolution requires a HEMP attack to be reported by at least three major media outlets within 30 days of the attack and before January 1st, 2024.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:06.285Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T22:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7413/size-of-state-nuclear-arsenals-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/):\nThe number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).\nHow many nuclear weapons will states possess at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?\nThis question resolves as the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all states as of the most recent FAS estimates available on 12-31-23. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons.\nResolution criteria will come from the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:11.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7418/open-phil-ai-grants-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $15 million to the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\" in 2020 and $63 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on risks from Artificial Intelligence should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7419/open-phil-ai-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:16.588Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7419/open-phil-ai-grants-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $15 million to the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\" in 2020 and $63 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on risks from Artificial Intelligence should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7418/open-phil-ai-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:21.763Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $67 million to the focus area \"Scientific Research\" in 2020 and $54 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Scientific Research\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Scientific Research, excluding research into Artificial Intelligence Risks, should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:26.901Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $67 million to the focus area \"Scientific Research\" in 2020 and $54 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Scientific Research\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Scientific Research, excluding research into Artificial Intelligence Risks, should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:32.797Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7422/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $25 million to the focus area \"Farmed Animal Welfare\" in 2020 and $40 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Farm Animal Welfare\" plus any additional focus areas aimed at helping animals. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Animal Welfare should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:37.956Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $25 million to the focus area \"Farmed Animal Welfare\" in 2020 and $40 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Farm Animal Welfare\" plus any additional focus areas aimed at helping animals. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Animal Welfare should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7422/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:43.106Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7424/open-phil-global-health-grants-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $101 million to the focus area \"Global Health and Development\" in 2020 and $41 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Global Health and Development\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Global Health and Development should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7425/open-phil-global-health-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:48.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7425/open-phil-global-health-grants-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $101 million to the focus area \"Global Health and Development\" in 2020 and $41 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Global Health and Development\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Global Health and Development should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7424/open-phil-global-health-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:53.403Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7426/open-phil-bio-grants-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $26 million to the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\" in 2020 and $22 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7427/open-phil-bio-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:11:58.526Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7427/open-phil-bio-grants-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $26 million to the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\" in 2020 and $22 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7426/open-phil-bio-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:03.644Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $10 million to the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\" in 2020 and $56 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Criminal Justice Reform should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:08.787Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $10 million to the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\" in 2020 and $56 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Criminal Justice Reform should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n29 July edit: If Open Philanthropy no longer exists as an organization at the start of the year in question, this resolves as 0.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:13.927Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7430/china-demographic-dependency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows: \nHow high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:19.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-06-01T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How high will Germany's total dependency ratio be in 2039?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7431/germanys-future-age-structure/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows:\nHow high will Germany's total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:24.342Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-06-01T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How high will the U.S.' total dependency ratio be in 2039?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7432/united-states-future-age-structure/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows:\nHow high will U.S. total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:29.478Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-06-01T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early 2021, the firm [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/) announced that they plan on having a commercial quantum computer by 2025. The PsiQuantum computer, named \"the Q-1\", uses a 'photon qubit' approach as opposed to a 'matter qubit'. According to [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/),\nThere are many ways to make small numbers of qubits, but only one way to scale beyond 1,000,000 qubits and deliver an error corrected, fault tolerant general purpose quantum computer – and that is photonics.\nToday, after numerous breakthroughs and advances in quantum architecture and silicon photonics, we uniquely have a clear path to building a useful quantum computer.\nIn 2020, PsiQuantum completed Series C funding of $150M bringing their total funding to $215M. Their list of investors includes BlackRock, Microsoft's Venture Fund, and Founders Fund.\nWill PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively via PsiQuantum company report that they have a quantum computer for sale by 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:39.810Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:35:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7435/quantum-computing-private-funding/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Compared to 2019, [in 2020](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/11/quantum-venture-funding-dipped-12-in-2020-but-quantum-investments-rose-46/) there were 46% more venture capital deals for quantum computing startups; however, the total amount raised in the sector fell 12% to $365 million. Since 2015, the funding amount (in million US dollars) have been:\n---2015: $73 \n---2016: $39 \n---2017: $287 \n---2018: $116 \n---2019: $417 \n---2020: $365 \nWhat will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the total amount of venture capital funding in quantum computing in 2022, in million US dollars, according to data from crunchbase or other sources of venture capital and angel investment financing information.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:44.936Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:56:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_%28decryption_program%29#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:12:50.147Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the fed funds rate be by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7439/u-s-interest-rate-policy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U. S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e. g. inflation, growth and employment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve sets the target level and range for the federal funds rate (see [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp)).\nWhat will the fed funds rate be on December 31st, 2023?\nThe question resolves as the target level fed funds rate as set by the FOMC on December 31st, 2023. This information is taken from the latest press release on [the Federal Reserve's website](http://www.federalreserve.gov) containing such.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:00.467Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\nIn 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n. . .\nOn March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n. . .\nIt remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\nWill women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to 2024-01-06. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to 2024-01-06; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after 2024-01-06 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:05.776Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-13T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-06T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company [comma.ai](http://comma.ai).\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.\nWill George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?\nThis question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.\nProduct release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.\nThe product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. \nBeta or development hardware does not resolve.\nResolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:11.731Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.\nThis question asks if he will hold that status as of year end 2025.\nWill Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) as of December 31st, 2025. It resolves negatively otherwise. \nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:16.962Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7445/us-states-decriminalizing-psilocybin-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Psilocybin is a Schedule I psychedelic drug in the US.\nPsilocybin has [low toxicity and a low harm potential](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21256914/). As of 2021, psilocybin-assisted therapy is or has been investigated for its potential for treating drug dependence, anxiety and mood disorders. FDA gave psilocybin-assisted therapy Breakthrough Therapy Designation [in 2018](https://compasspathways.com/compass-pathways-receives-fda-breakthrough-therapy-designation-for-psilocybin-therapy-for-treatment-resistant-depression/) (for treatment-resistant depression) and [in 2019](https://www.livescience.com/psilocybin-depression-breakthrough-therapy.html) (for major depressive disorder).\nIn 2020, Oregon [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Oregon_Ballot_Measure_110) the first US state to remove criminal penalties for possession of psilocybin. Also, [several cities](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States&oldid=1028882880) in Colorado, Denver and California have decriminalized it in 2019-2021, and some legislators are [pushing](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States&oldid=1028882880) to decriminalize it in New York, California, Vermont, New Jersey.\nHow many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027?\nThis question is resolved with the number of US states where psilocybin is decriminalized on 1st January, 2027.\nFor purposes of this question, psilocybin is deemed decriminalized in a state if its possession is de facto not prosecuted. This may happen, for example, via an act of state legislature, or via a non-enforcement policy. Federal-level changes also matter.\nIf possession of some small amount is decriminalized, but possession of psilocybin (or psilocybin-containing plants) above some mass threshold is a crime, it still counts as decriminalization.\nThe upper boundary is open to cover the case of new states being added to the union. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:22.162Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Russian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:27.497Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russian and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nResolution will come from reputable new sources or from direct reports from their government, or government officials.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:32.626Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:53:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):\n\"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.\n[In 2020], tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\nOne unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that: \"With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.\"\nThis question adapts that previous question to consider what might happen by 2024 and in any location (not necessarily just near the China-India border).\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:37.802Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:55:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"\nWill there be a US-Russia war by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if there's a war between the US and Russia by 2050. For the purposes of this question, a US-Russia war is defined as the US and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:43.000Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T23:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes](https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/) that:\n\"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. Despite being a state party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, evidence suggests North Korea may maintain an offensive biological weapons program.\nIn defiance of the international community, which has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea for its illicit behavior, the country has continued to escalate its WMD activities. In July 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and in September 2017 it conducted a test of what it claimed was a thermonuclear weapon.\"\nTensions between North Korea and other countries have been increased by the country's testing of nuclear weapons and [of missiles that may have sufficient range to reach the continental United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15). As of 2020, the nuclear arsenal of North Korea was estimated at approximately [30 to 40 warheads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction), with the sufficient production of fissile material for the creation of an additional 6 to 7 nuclear weapons a year. President Biden has warned Kim Jong-un that if production and testing of nuclear weapons continues, there will be a [US \"response.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. This question resolves negatively if that does not occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no nuclear detonation (other than test detonations or peaceful nuclear explosions) occurs anywhere before 2050. \nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to a resolution council or Metaculus admins.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:48.211Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an inadvertent detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:53.367Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an accidental or unauthorised detonation, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon seized from a state actor. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:13:58.535Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:07:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7456/countervalue-detonations-by-russia-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on Russia detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Russian-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:03.726Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n--- \nRussia: 6,257 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUS: 5,550 nuclear warheads\n--- \nChina: 350 nuclear warheads\n--- \nFrance: 290 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUK: 225 nuclear warheads\n--- \nPakistan: 165 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIndia: 160 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIsrael: 90 nuclear warheads\n--- \nNorth Korea: Estimated 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower.\")\nHow many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?\nThis question resolves as the number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) detonated offensively in total between the opening of this question and 2050. If there are no offensive detonations before 2050 by any state or non-state actor, then this question will resolve as <1. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of January 1, 2055.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:09.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-02T00:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the US detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized US-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:14.303Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:15:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7459/countervalue-detonations-by-china-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on China detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by China by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by China includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Chinese-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by China by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:19.453Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:17:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the non-test detonation of a nuclear weapon after the question opens and before 2050, what fraction of individual nuclear strikes will be countervalue strikes.\nWhat fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of nuclear strikes carried out by any country or non-state actor between 2021-01-01 and 2050-01-01 which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A strike is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the attack (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nNuclear strikes here includes authorised strikes, accidental strikes, and strikes by non-state actors. But it does not include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), even if such detonations cause substantial damage. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no non-test nuclear detonations carried out by any country after the question opens and before 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:24.862Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7462/deployed-nuclear-weapons-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are deployed rather than in reserve or retired would likely increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also affect the likelihood of nuclear or non-nuclear conflict occurring in the first place, though it's harder to say in which direction. Finally, changes in the number of deployed weapons can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.\nHow many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves as the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent FAS estimates available on 12-31-23. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This excludes weapons that are (a) in reserve/nondeployed or (b) retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:30.026Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:22:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n---Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads \n---US: 5,550 nuclear warheads \n---China: 350 nuclear warheads \n---France: 290 nuclear warheads \n---UK: 225 nuclear warheads \n---Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads \n---India: 160 nuclear warheads \n---Israel: 90 nuclear warheads \n---North Korea: Estimated at 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\") \nHow many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the number of countries that increased the size of their nuclear arsenal by at least 10% as of the most recent [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23, compared to the numbers shown above. This could include a country that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gaining an arsenal of at least one nuclear weapon. In the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear arsenal\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not. \nResolution will come from [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), or other similar, reputable sources that report on the number of nuclear weapons possessed by each country. \nIf information can not be found, then resolution will be determined by a resolution council or by Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:35.337Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:26:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7464/black-carbon-in-troposphere-after-nuclear-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear war has the potential to kill far more people via its climate effects than it does directly, and those climate effects are also typically seen as the most likely path by which nuclear war could cause an existential catastrophe. The size of these climate effects depends greatly on the amount of black carbon injected into the upper troposphere by the fires caused by nuclear strikes. This black carbon might ([or might not](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and_debate)) then persist in the atmosphere and cause major cooling, agricultural shortfalls, and famine.\nThe amount of black carbon that would reach the upper troposphere depends on factors such as the number and yield of nuclear weapons used, the fuel densities of their targets, and whether firestorms would occur. These factor have been debated by various researchers, such as [Toon et al. (2007)](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/7/1973/2007/), [Reisner et al. (2018)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD027331), [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777), [Rodriguez (2019)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear), and [Coupe et al. (2019)](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Nuclear-Winter-Responses-to-Nuclear-War-Between-the-Coupe-Bardeen/560033106c2d599bcace3ce4cb6c67d5b713ec50).\nHow many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?\nThis question resolves as the number of teragrams of black carbon injected into the upper troposphere as the result of the next nuclear conflict. The number of teragrams will be measured as the median of estimates from studies that (a) cover the climatic effects from the next nuclear conflict, (b) are from peer-reviewed, reputable journals, and (c) are cited by relevant Wikipedia pages.\n[The troposphere](https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/atmosphere/troposphere) is here defined as: \"The bottom of the troposphere is at Earth's surface. The troposphere extends upward to about 10 km (6.2 miles or about 33,000 feet) above sea level. The height of the top of the troposphere varies with latitude (it is lowest over the poles and highest at the equator) and by season (it is lower in winter and higher in summer). It can be as high as 20 km (12 miles or 65,000 feet) near the equator, and as low as 7 km (4 miles or 23,000 feet) over the poles in winter.\"\n[The upper troposphere](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011RG000355) is a coupling layer in the atmosphere. It can be broadly defined as the region ±5 km around the tropopause, the traditional boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if, by 2050, no nuclear war has occurred or there are no studies done that estimate the amount of black carbon injected into the troposphere after nuclear conflict. If studies are performed but their results do not lead to clear resolution, a resolution council or Metaculus admins will be consulted to determine proper resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:40.535Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:28:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these measures will be in preventing another crisis or mitigating its effects once one takes place.\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"great financial crisis\" is defined by reference to the weekly [Financial Stress Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI2) of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The index is constructed by extracting the component of principal variation from 18 different indicators of the state of financial markets using principal component analysis and is designed to serve as an overall measure of stress in financial markets. A \"great financial crisis\" is a crisis that's comparable to the crisis of 2008 by this metric.\nWhen will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?\nThe question resolves to the Friday of the earliest week after the opening date of the question for which the latest version of the Financial Stress Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (which is currently SLTFSI2 but might change in the future if further revisions are made to the index by the St. Louis Fed) exceeds its value for the week ending on October 3rd 2008. This value is currently 7.0144, but may be updated if FRED updates the index. If this event doesn't occur until the closing date of the question. the question resolves as >2100. If the index is discontinued altogether, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:51.482Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)\nWill there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that before 1 January 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than 1 January, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:14:56.689Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the price of Bitcoin first drop below $6481 (2021 USD)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7469/date-of-bitcoin-trades-less-than-6481/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is the oldest cryptocurrency. After an [all time high of 64 805 USD](https://athcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin), the price has hovered around 35 000 USD for the last few months. Many speculations and allegations surround it, from Bitcoin [becoming the world's reserve currency](https://www.americanexpress.com/us/foreign-exchange/articles/is-global-digital-reserve-currency-on-horizon/) to [it being a Ponzi scheme](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/bitcoin-a-gimmick-and-resembles-a-ponzi-scheme-black-swan-author-.html).\nWhen will the price of Bitcoin first drop below $6481 (2021 USD)?\nThe question resolves as the day that Kraken reports the [24 hour low](https://www.kraken.com/prices/btc-bitcoin-price-chart/usd-us-dollar?interval=24h) as a value lower than 6481.0 USD ([adjusted for inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) to 2021 USD).\nIf Kraken is down, any of the following sources may be used as a substitute:\n[coinbase.com](http://coinbase.com)\n[bitfinex.com](http://bitfinex.com)\n[binance.com](http://binance.com)\nMetaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use an alternative source if none of the above are credible.\nThe date will be decided according to GMT. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:01.903Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-10T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T10:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T10:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Neanderthal be born again?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7479/bringing-back-the-neanderthal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The complete genome of a Neanderthal has already been [sequenced](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12886). The noted geneticist and synthetic biologist [George Church](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_%28geneticist%29) suggests that Neanderthal de-extinction will become [technically possible](https://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/george-church-explains-how-dna-will-be-construction-material-of-the-future-a-877634.html) in the near future.\nWhen will a Neanderthal be born again?\nThis question will resolve at the time when a Neanderthal is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The question will resolve at that time to the date of the Neanderthal's birth. If this does not happen by the end of the given range, the question will resolve > end date.\nThe revived specimen must have at least 90% of Neanderthal genome. An anatomically modern human spliced with a few Neanderthal genes will not resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:12.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29)), the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.\nWill the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030 and after January 1st 2020, the S&P 500 moves by more than 15.0% from opening to closing price, in a single day.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:17.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7483/ai-artist-to-be-credited-in-shonen-jump/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Modern visual creative tools like Adobe Creative and Clip Studio Paint already offer increasingly sophisticated AI-assisted editing. At the leading edge, technologies like [generative adversarial networks](https://medium.com/the-research-nest/generating-art-with-artificial-intelligence-powered-applications-276102955261) and [others](https://reposhub.com/python/deep-learning/lzhbrian-arbitrary-text-to-image-papers.html) may soon allow generating high-fidelity images of any desired content and style.\n[Weekly Shōnen Jump](https://www.viz.com/shonenjump) is a Japanese magazine that serializes ongoing manga series. It has by far the largest circulation of any manga magazine, and to draw a weekly manga published in Shōnen Jump is the pinnacle of achievement in the manga industry. Weekly manga chapters are typically about 16-20 pages long.\nWhen will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?\nThis question resolves at the time that Weekly Shōnen Jump publishes at least ten magazine pages of content, in the same issue, credited in any part to an artificial intelligence or other computer program. It does not matter whether the content's appearance was paid-for, or on what terms it appeared in the magazine. The resolution value will be the publication date. If the upper bound of the forecasting period passes without this occurring, the question resolves as \">\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:22.596Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-06-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7493/date-uber-becomes-cheaper-in-bay-area/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [ABC 7 News](https://abc7news.com/rideshare-prices-demand-price-up-uber/10782862/),\nWe are days away from California's full reopening and in some areas of the economy we are already seeing major rebounds.\nDemand for rideshare companies like Uber and Lyft is rising and the riders are now seeing much more expensive rides.\nOut of Uber, Lyft, and taxis it used to be obvious on which one was cheaper but not anymore, as the demand for all three is rising. [...]\nExperts say some drivers have opted to do food delivery instead, others have found new jobs, and some continue to take unemployment instead of coming back. Not those like our friend Larry who says he sees the demand and is helping meet it.\nIt's up in the air as to how long we'll see higher rideshare prices, experts we talked with believe at least three months and in many cases up until unemployment benefits come to an end for some people.\nWhen will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?\nThis question resolves on the date during which [ride.guru](https://ride.guru/) first indicates that the price of an Uber X from 67 Centennial Dr, Berkeley, California 94704, United States to Dahlia Garden, Pompei Circle, San Francisco, California 94117, United States is less than $20. The date will be determined by the first credible archive of [this link](https://ride.guru/estimate/67%20Centennial%20Dr,%20Berkeley,%20California%2094704,%20United%20States/Dahlia%20Garden,%20Pompei%20Circle,%20San%20Francisco,%20California%2094117,%20United%20States#fare-comparison) posted in the comments of this question.\nThe [Uber Python SDK](https://developer.uber.com/docs/riders/ride-requests/tutorials/api/python) can be used to automatically find pricing data. See also [this Python project](https://pypi.org/project/uberfare/) which is a wrapper for the Uber Python SDK.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:27.718Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the EU bans all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7496/when-will-the-eu-phase-out-cages/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nThis is in addition to the [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/) of whether, by 2024, the European Commission will make a proposal to phase out cages.\nOn June 30th 2021, the Commission responded to the [End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/) [European Citizen's Initiative](https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12842-Animal-welfare-%E2%80%98End-the-Cage-Age%E2%80%99-European-citizens%E2%80%99-initiative_en), which called for a ban on cages for farmed animals, by [writing](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/sites/default/files/2021-06/1_EN_ACT_part1_v7.pdf):\n\" . . the Commission intends to put forward a legislative proposal by the end of 2023 to phase out and finally prohibit the use of cages for all the animal species and categories referred to in the initiative (laying hens, sows, calves, rabbits, pullets, broiler breeders, layer breeders, quail, ducks and geese) as part of the planned revision of EU animal welfare legislation, under conditions (including the length of the transition period) to be determined based on EFSA opinions, the results of an impact assessment and a public consultation. . . . The date of entry into force of the prohibition, and thus the length of the phasing out period, will be considered in the context of the impact assessment for the legislative proposal. In particular, this will assess the feasibility of working towards the proposed legislation entering into force from 2027 taking into account the need to support farmers in this transition – financially and otherwise. . . . the Commission will consider the available science, an assessment of social, economic and environmental impacts, evolving needs and consumer demand. These elements will be taken into account when it comes to determining the length of a reasonable transition period and the accompanying and supporting measures to facilitate the transition. The Commission in particular will assess the feasibility of working towards the proposed legislation entering into force from 2027.\"\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that as of 2020 [52%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nSome EU countries already have plans to phase out cages or have already done so.\n--- \nGermany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship.\n--- \nIn Austria, a [ban](https://www.ris.bka.gv.at/Dokument.wxe?Abfrage=Erv&Dokumentnummer=ERV_2004_1_118) on enriched cages came into force in 2020.\n---In Luxembourg, a [ban](http://legilux.public.lu/eli/etat/leg/rgd/2002/01/28/n1/jo) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---Czechia [agreed](https://pozitivni-zpravy.cz/cesi-vybojovali-svobodu-pro-slepice-zakaz-klecovych-chodu-podepsal-prezident/) to phase out cages by 2027. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030 as part of a memorandum signed with the chicken industry. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.gaia.be/en/news/wallonia-adopts-ambitious-animal-welfare-code), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. \n---France was to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients) though it doesn't seem to have been legislated, and the European Commission [claimed](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/sites/default/files/2021-06/1_EN_ACT_part1_v7.pdf) enriched cages are \"banned in France for new or refurbished farms\". \n---The Netherlands [planned](https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/stb-2010-284.html) to ban enriched cages from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used- though it seems to have been [postponed](https://www.animalrights.nl/de-%E2%80%98verrijkte-kooi%E2%80%99-voor-legkippen-verboden#fn:2). \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting.\nIf the EU bans caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Union is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have adopted into law a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union by a certain date. Note the regulation may include a date after which no new cages are to be installed in addition to a date after which all existing cages can no longer be stocked and used. In this question we are concerned with the second of these two dates. \nThis question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the announcement. If there is no phase-out date included in the law, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will resolve ambiguous if it doesn't resolve by 2060 or if the date in question is after 2060.\nEnriched, furnished, or colony cages will be considered caged-housing. Semi- or limited-access barns will not be consider caged-housing. The law may not contain the exact language \"ban cages\" but rather require some minimum space requirements, outdoor access, and enrichment materials that de fact mean extreme confinement in a cage or crate is impossible. The opinion of credible animal rights/welfare organisations like Compassion in World Farming or Eurogroup for Animals can be referred to in case of ambiguity. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:32.853Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\nRelated questions:\n--- \n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \nGWP in 2100, in trillions of US$ - (this question)\n--- \n[GWP in 2200, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:38.067Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-21T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-20T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\nRelated questions:\n--- \n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \n[GWP in 2100, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \nGWP in 2100, in trillions of US$ - (this question)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:43.282Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-21T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-20T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7500/us-federal-judges-confirmed-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy.\nIn 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see [previous question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/)). The number of judges confirmed in 2021 is [a work in progress](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/).\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2022 as listed on this [.gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports, should be used at resolution time.\nFederal judges will include both Article I and Article III judges.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:48.443Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-09T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7501/date-twin-prime-conjecture-is-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Previous questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) [resolved: no] \n---[When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/) [closed in 2021] \nConjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question will resolve on the date a proof that is mostly correct is published which demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the day before the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. In the event that the conjecture is proven to be [undecidable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undecidable_problem) or [independent of ZFC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%E2%80%93Fraenkel_set_theory#Independence), the question will also resolve on the date of such proof.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:53.593Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-07-06T12:59:13.074000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2311-09-23T20:43:55.448000Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nWhat fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by any country or non-state actor by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of a town or city that has a population density of at least 500 people per square kilometer. The military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a town could both count towards this proportion.\nOffensive nuclear detonations here includes authorised strikes, accidental strikes, and strikes by non-state actors. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by any country after the question opens and before 2050.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a town or city that has a population density of at least 500 people per square kilometer\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:15:58.856Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7506/return-for-vgt-if-agi-arrives-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of question writing, the Metaculus community currently assigns [48% probability to the proposition that human-level AI will arrive by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), and [34% to a stronger operationalization of that same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/). This question will use the weaker operationalization of AGI for resolution.\nSome observers have speculated that if AGI is created relatively soon (within a few decades) then technology stocks will rise dramatically. This thesis is generally supported by (1) the theory that [stock prices represent discounted expected future returns](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp), and (2) the hypothesis that investors will expect AGI services to be extremely profitable, as AGI can substitute for human labor, and therefore [greatly raise economic productivity](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/could-advanced-ai-drive-explosive-economic-growth).\nThe [Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VGT) \"seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of stocks in the information technology sector.\"\nWhat inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?\nThis question resolves only in the event that [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves before January 1st 2040. Assume that AGI is developed and demonstrated before 2040. Then this question resolves according to the hypothetical inflation-adjusted return an investor would yield by if they had bought a single share of VGT on July 2nd 2021, and sold it as soon as possible in January 2040. The return is measured in percentage points. Inflation is determined by the consumer price index, or another similar inflation measure if the consumer price index is discontinued.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:09.607Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7508/10m-people-in-a-uk-biobank/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Guardian, 2021-07-04: Whole genome sequencing of all UK newborns ‘would have public support’](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/04/whole-genome-sequencing-of-all-uk-newborns-would-have-public-support)\nPlans to sequence the whole genome of every newborn in the UK in order to spot those at heightened risk of certain health conditions have been given a boost, with consultations suggesting the approach could have public support.\nThe potential for genomics to improve health was at the heart of the chief medical officer annual report of 2016, with a group of experts convened by Genomics England – a government-owned genetics service – subsequently recommending a research programme to sequence the whole genome of all newborns.\nThe United Kingdom (UK) already has a very large biobank of genetic data, called [the UK Biobank (UKBB)](https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/). It has data for about 500k people. However, it is based on microarray data, not sequencing.\nWhen will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?\n---There are credible reports (e.g., an academic paper or press release by a UK university) saying that 10 million genomes have been sequenced in biobanks. These biobanks need not be publicly owned or accessible, but their purpose must be research. 23andme-like consumer genomics companies do not count. \n---The data may not need to be in a single biobank. The numbers add up assuming the persons are non-overlapping. Positive resolution may thus come from one biobank with 1M and another with 9M. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:14.764Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/paying-us-taxes-in-bitcoin/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is complementary to another on the [legality of Bitcoin](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/). Measuring legality requires a cluster of angles.\nWill it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?\nQuestion resolves positively if at any point before January 1st, 2030, there exist an IRS publication at [irs.gov](http://irs.gov), that explains or gives instructions on how to pay taxes to the IRS with Bitcoin.\n1-- \nSome crypto payment services work by exchanging the crypto for fiat at the point of transaction, and then sends fiat. That doesn't count -- what the IRS must receive and accept is the Bitcoin.\n2-- \nThere is no requirement for the IRS to then hold onto that Bitcoin after receiving it, they could sell if for USD or anything else. It is only required that they accept it for the transaction.\n3-- \nIt can't be part of a punitive action by the IRS nor another part of the government. It must be that the person was making an otherwise-normal payment toward their income taxes or capital gains tax, in good legal standing. If the IRS seized their crypto holdings due to illegal activity, that is not the spirit of the question.\n4-- \nThere is no requirement that the Bitcoin transaction be on-chain. If the IRS accepted a custodial transfer of Bitcoin that was held by a bank in trust on behalf of the taxpayer, or if the taxpayer sent the Bitcoin using a lightning network payment channel, or if they sent it using a sidechain, or sent it using a wrapped BTC on another blockchain -- those are all acceptable. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:19.966Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7510/countervalue-detonation-by-india-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on India detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by India includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Indian-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:25.162Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T17:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:52:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](http://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:30.398Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics as reported by the [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/) the percentage of Israel's population that is, ultra-Orthodox, or [Haredi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism), was 9% as of 2017, and is projected to grow to 29% by 2059. A 2020 [report by the Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/media/14526/statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2019.pdf) estimates that as of 2020 12% of Israel's population is Haredi (1,125,000) and projects that this proportion will double in 16 years.\n[Haredi Judaism](https://www.britannica.com/topic/ultra-Orthodox-Judaism) is defined as a stringent adherence to halakha (Jewish law), traditions and customs. Child-rearing is encouraged in the Haredi community — a [2018 Israel Democracy Institute study](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385) estimated that Haredi women on average have 7.1 children.\nWhat percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?\nThe most recent official [Central Bureau of Statistics](https://www.cbs.gov.il/en/Pages/default.aspx) census or survey as of 1 January 2050 that estimates the percentage of the population that is Haredi will be consulted. If there is no such survey after 31 December 2046, then the most recent estimate by the [Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/) or a major Israeli newspaper (Haaretz, Ynet, Jerusalem Post) will be consulted.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:35.725Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-22T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is and the upper bound is ; see [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251) for the best known upper bound.\nWill there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant , a bound or , for all sufficiently large .\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:40.898Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will South Africa's GDP per capita PPP be in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7531/south-africa-gdp-per-capita-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "South Africa seemingly faces an economic crisis. [Cyril Madlala writes for Daily Maverick 13 July 2021](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-13-a-race-war-looms-if-the-government-cant-get-the-looting-under-control/):\nA race war looms if the government can’t get the looting under control The ANC failed to sort out its politics when the Zuma matter was for its members only to resolve. Now parts of KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng are in flames, as they were almost three decades ago. The immediate danger now is of armed conflict between races, because their government is not capable of protecting its citizens from thugs who have hijacked a pro-Zuma bandwagon for their own nefarious intentions.\n[Antony Sguazzin writes for Bloomberg/Al Jazeera 13 Jul 2021](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/7/13/violent-protests-deal-body-blow-to-south-africas-economy):\nViolent protests deal body blow to South Africa’s economy Violent protests have dealt a body blow to South Africa’s efforts to rebuild the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and pose the sternest test yet to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s authority. The widespread looting and social unrest that’s followed the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma is damaging business confidence, has disrupted key trade routes and seen businesses from banks and supermarkets to small-time traders shutting their doors. The army has been deployed to help police quell the unrest, which has claimed the lives of 10 people and seen almost 500 arrested.\nWill South Africa suffer significant economic decline, or bounce back on track? The GDP per capita PPP was about 12.5k in 2019, and about 11.5k in 2020, though this is probably also related to COVID lockdown.\nWhat will South Africa's GDP per capita PPP be in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD)?\nThis question will resolve as South Africa's GDP per capita PPP (in constant 2017 USD) for the year 2030, according to the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2020&locations=ZA&start=1990&view=chart).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:46.119Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Which fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7532/fraction-germany-migration-background/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Deutsche Welt (German World) English version wrote on 2019-11-04](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-in-20-years-1-in-3-people-will-have-migrant-roots/a-51101172):\nGermany: In 20 years, 1 in 3 people will have migrant roots By 2040, about 35% of Germany's population will have a migrant background or be a migrant themselves, according to a German migration expert.\nHerbert Brücker, who heads the migration research department at the Federal Institute for Employment Research (IAB), told the Welt daily on Monday that Germany \"will become more diverse.\"\n\"Currently, about a quarter of the people in German have a migrant background,\" Brücker said. \"In 20 years, it will be at least 35%, but could also be more than 40%.\"\nHe noted that in cities, that figure is likely to be higher. \"What we see in the big cities today will be normal for the country as a whole in the future,\" Brücker said. \"In a city like Frankfurt, we'll have between 65% to 70%.\"\nWhich fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040?\n---Population data for 2040 from a suitable German government website [such as destatis](https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Migration-Integration/_node.html). \n---Note that migration background currently means persons with at least one parent born outside of Germany. It is possible this definition will change in the future to include grandparents, [see this article](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1468796819833437). This question resolves based on the definition the government uses at the time. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:51.289Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7539/date-our-future-simulates-us-first-guesses/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Some researchers suggest the odds of our current reality being a simulation are [very high](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom). \nUnder some scenarios, our current reality could be a simulation created under a reality--itself possibly a simulation--historically coincident with our own apparent universe to at least the present, in many or all respects.\nIn this case, since the mother universe corresponds substantially or fully to our own so far, one obvious question is at what date in the mother universe (equivalent to a possibly divergent copy of our future) was our own simulation created?\nAssuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?\nSlider is in billions of years from instantiation of mother universe. Upper boundary is open. \nResolves when either 3 credible peer reviewed studies or 4 credible media sources--as determined by metaculus moderators--all announce and agree with each other to within 100 million years on a date of instantiation, in the mother universe, for the simulation constituting our reality either in conjunction with the declaration that we are in a simulation or merely taking it for granted. \nResolves ambiguous if we're provably in a simulation where the mother universe does not contain fully or substantially the history of our universe up to at least the time this question goes live.\nResolves ambiguous if we're provably in a simulation but the concept of a mother universe is incorrect or inapplicable.\nResolves ambiguous if proven we're not in a simulation.\nIf the mother universe is itself a simulation, that's no problem.\nLower and upper boundaries are open for dates outside of the given range.\n[2021-08-19] Sylvain: changed the question from \"If we're in a simulation, when was it created?\" to \"Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?\", but left the resolution criteria unchanged.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:16:56.598Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T19:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T19:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7543/when-will-ar-tech-be-widely-publicly-worn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Augmented reality (AR) headsets such glasses and headsets are not yet used by people in public very widely. Some of the reasons are technological: high cost, large weight, low field of view and quality of augmented vision. However, multiple tech giants [are](https://www.wareable.com/ar/the-best-smartglasses-google-glass-and-the-rest) venturing in the AR space.\nWhen will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside?\nThe question is intended to track adoption of AR tech in public. It resolves when it is reported for any city with >1M population or any country with >1M population that at least 1% of people living there have at least once used an AR device outside (e.g. while walking down the street).\nAR tech is broadly defined here as any electronic head-mounted device which allows you to see any content, e.g. text or images.\nReporting must be credible, however, using statistical estimates and straightforward logical implications to resolve the question is fine. E.g. a headline \"Danger! 18 road accidents in London were linked to AR glasses over the past year and we estimate that hundreds of thousands of Londoners have tried using faulty walking navigation AR apps linked to these cases\" would mean positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:01.836Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7544/pr%25C3%25B3spera-at-10000-residents-before-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Próspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_%28Honduras%29) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras. \nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\nPróspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).\nWill Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?\nThis question resolves positively if Próspera, or the same entity with a different name, at any point before 2035 reports that it has 10,000 or more residents.\nFor the purposes of this question, e-residents do not count as residents. Only people living on land managed by Próspera do.\nIf Próspera does not publish population data and such data is not available even upon request, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:07.110Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7546/deaths-from-covid-19-per-year-2022-2025-in-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Most scientists [now believe](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2) that, even with the vaccines, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will continue to circulate throughout the globe for many years to come. The new Delta variant has prompted [new alarm](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/17/1017075240/delta-variant-is-spreading-fast-and-new-cases-are-rising-is-time-to-mask-up-agai) and triggered again calls for indoor masking and social distancing. Anecdotally, many people are disgruntled by these developments, because they want life to truly get back to normal, the way it was back in 2019.\nIn order for life to return to complete normality by the end of the decade, there must be a presumption that COVID-19 is no longer a significant threat, and in any case will not get substantially worse if restrictions are lifted. One way of measuring this presumption is to predict how many deaths there will be of COVID-19 on average during the years to come.\nHow many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the mean number of people reported to have died of COVID-19 in the United States during the years 2022 through 2025, according to official statistics. In other words, add up the number of people who died during each year from 2022 to 2025, and divide that number by 4.\nOfficial statistics refer to statistics released by official government sources, such as the CDC. If no official statistics are provided, then authoritative academic reports will be consulted. If those are unavailable, then high quality media reports will be consulted. In case two sources conflict, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in deciding which source is more authoritative.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:12.267Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2040/) \n[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming.\nThis question is more narrow in scope, and asks if commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for meat will be banned by 2040 (so farming for eggs and dairy are not included in this scope).\nWill commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for their meat by the end of 2040.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:17.592Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales exceed 50 million units per year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7548/when-will-vrar-sell-50-million-per-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) may become superior to PCs and smartphones for most tasks, including communication, digital assistance, writing, coding, and entertainment. Over 1 billion smartphones and 200 million PCs are sold each year, and if VR/AR becomes superior, it will sell at similar quantities. This question is related to [When will VR headsets sell 10M units per year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/).\nWhen will 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales exceed 50 million units per year?\nVirtual reality and augmented reality devices are defined as devices that are attached to the user's head, display an image to the user's eyes, and has 6DoF tracking, meaning it tracks the head's position and rotation in space.\nThis question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 50 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of \"VR/AR sales\" in general may include many non-qualifying devices. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources.\nThis question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:22.759Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7549/resolving-the-sunflower-conjecture/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nWill the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal resolving the sunflower conjecture. If there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:28.839Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7550/truth-of-the-sunflower-conjecture/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_%28mathematics%29) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size are necessary before there are some whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form ; see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound for some constant .\nIs the sunflower conjecture true?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the sunflower conjecture. It will resolve negatively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal disproving the sunflower conjecture.\nIf there is no such proof by 2300-01-01, the question will resolve ambiguous. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2300-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n[EDIT] Sylvain 2021-09-08 : changed the resolution date from 2121 to 2300.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:34.059Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-12T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain be defaced or destroyed before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7552/stone-mountain-defaced-before-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Stone Mountain](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-will-happen-stone-mountain-americas-largest-confederate-memorial-180964588/) in DeKalb County, Georgia, features the largest Confederate memorial anywhere. At roughly 25 by 60 meters, the monument is also the largest bas-relief carving in the world. It depicts Confederate President Jefferson Davis and his generals Robert E. Lee and \"Stonewall\" Jackson heroically on horseback.\nAfter the Charlottesville rally of 2017, and especially after the George Floyd protests of 2020, [removals and defacements of Confederate monuments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials) in the United States accelerated. Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacy Abrams has called Stone Mountain \"a blight on our state [that] should be removed,\" while Republican Governor Brian Kemp has pledged to \"protect Stone Mountain and historical monuments in Georgia from the radical left.\"\nWill the Stone Mountain Confederate monument be defaced or destroyed before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if the Confederate relief on Stone Mountain is destroyed, or defaced by irreversibly removing stone, before 2035. It must be defaced sufficiently such that damage is readily identifiable when the monument is viewed from a distance, or in a 1 megapixel photograph depicting the entire carved area. The question resolves negatively if Stone Mountain is not so defaced before 2035.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:39.265Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of young US men will be sexless in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7557/male-sexlessness-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The share of US adults reporting no sexual intercourse in the previous year [seems to have gone up](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/29/share-americans-not-having-sex-has-reached-record-high/) over the last decade. The change appears to be driven mostly by young people, especially young men.\nWhat percentage of US men under 30 will report no sexual intercourse in the previous year in 2024?\nThis question will resolve according to the [General Social Survey](http://www.gss.norc.org/).\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the General Social Survey stops asking about sexual intercourse in the previous year.\nRelated question: [What percentage of young US women will be sexless in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7570/female-sexlessness-in-the-us/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:44.650Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7558/algorithm-for-factoring-in-polynomial-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question of whether or not an integer can be [factored in polynomial time](http://%28https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integer_factorization%29) (in the size of the input) is one of the most important problems in theoretical computer science. A quick algorithm for factoring could potentially [break RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_problem). [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm) is an algorithm for factoring in polynomial time using a quantum computer, but it is not a classical algorithm.\nWhen will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring integers?\nThis question will resolve as the date of a publication in a major mathematical journal or computer science conference which proves the existence of a classical algorithm for factoring in polynomial time. It is not necessary for the algoritm itself to be known, or to be efficent or practical, it is sufficient to prove that some such algoritm exists.\nIf there is a proof published that shows that such an algorithm is impossible, this question will close retroactively 1 day before the paper is published/preprinted. The question would resolve as >2121.\nThe algorithm is allowed to be randomized. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:49.867Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-21T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7565/recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\nA lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\nDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown—more than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?\nWill there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?\nLockdowns are said to be \"recurring\" during the period 2030-2050 if any of the following become true during that time period,\n--- \nAt least three separate virus species, according to the [ICTV classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification) of viruses, are reported to have triggered at least three separate global lockdown events, defined as events in which at least 50% of the world population simultaneously live under stay-at-home orders for some period of time.\n--- \nDuring at least five separate incidents, it is not possible to see an in-person [Broadway Show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadway_theatre) in New York City due to stay-at-home orders in New York City as a result of a viral event. An incident is said to be separate if Broadway theaters lifted restrictions for some time, before being mandated again.\n--- \nThe Summer Olympic Games OR Winter Olympic Games are rescheduled at least three times as a result of viral related events.\nDisputes related to question wording will be determined using admin discretion. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:17:55.012Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of young US women will be sexless in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7570/female-sexlessness-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The share of US adults reporting no sexual intercourse in the previous year [seems to have gone up](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/03/29/share-americans-not-having-sex-has-reached-record-high/) over the last decade. The change appears to be driven mostly by young people, especially young men.\nWhat percentage of US women under 30 will report no sexual intercourse in the previous year in 2024?\nThis question will resolve according to the [General Social Survey](http://www.gss.norc.org/).\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the General Social Survey stops asking about sexual intercourse in the previous year.\nRelated question: [What percentage of young US men will be sexless in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7557/sexlessness-in-the-us/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:00.213Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at its peak?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7571/haredi-share-of-israel-at-peak/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/) asked for the Haredi proportion of Israel in 2050, and [was featured in Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-726).\n[Haredi Judaism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism) is a stringent adherence to halakha (Jewish law), traditions, and customs. Israel's Haredi community has over twice the national average birth rate; a [2018 Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) study](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385) estimated that Haredi women on average have 7.1 children, compared to the average of 3.09 for Israel as a whole in the same year. A [2020 IDI report](https://en.idi.org.il/media/14526/statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2019.pdf) estimated that 12% of Israel's population is Haredi, and that this share will double in 16 years. [According to the Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/), Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics reported that 9% of the Israeli population was Haredi as of 2017 and projected that this proportion would grow to 29% by 2059.\nHow high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at the peak?\nThis question will resolve to the highest estimate of the Haredi population in Israel on any date before 1 January 2122, as published by one of the following sources before 1 January 2125:\n---The Central Bureau of Statistics \n---An estimate by the Israel Democracy Institute \n---A major Israeli newspaper (Haaretz, Ynet, Jerusalem Post) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:05.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2113-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Israel recognize Palestine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7572/date-israel-recognises-palestine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution. [A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7631/israel-recognizing-palestine/) asked if Israel would recognize Palestine by 2070.\nWhen will Israel recognize Palestine?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Palestine) is legally recognized by the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel). Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. This question resolves to > if this does not happen by the end of 2120. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:10.753Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-10T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7574/biggest-peaceful-star-group-in-year-1-billion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Whether we encounter aliens or not, our descendants might diverge in many strange ways.\nThis question series is about future space politics. The spirit is to estimate the biggest polity/race/alliance/system in the Milky Way. We'll use the scale \"as a percent of stars in the Milky Way\".\nBut it's hard to define the borders of a space \"polity\" or \"alliance\". There may be contracts, dynamics or arrangements that would be incomprehensible to us. But our descendants would tend to model the relations in the galaxy, so they can navigate it.\nThis first question aims to define membership with the bar set very low and very inclusively. Starting with \"they don't appear to be militarily hostile to each other.\"\nWhat will be the largest grouping of stars in the milky way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other?\nQuestion resolves as the best-available estimate of the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, where each star doesn't seem to be militarily hostile to any other members of that group, in the year 1,000,000,000 AD in the Gregorian calendar, as a fraction of stars in the Milky Way.\n1-- \nStars in the group could be arbitrarily hostile toward stars outside the group.\n2-- \nAn individual star system could have internal politics and sub-factions. This question assumes they would have some political membership at the star-level. There could be some cases where a sub-faction of a star is militarily hostile to a surrounding encampment. In such cases, fractions of a star will be estimated.\n3-- \nThere are many billions of rogue planets. There may be settlements in rogue matter that do not belong to a specific star, and are adrift. Rogue matter colonies would tend to be in a militarily weak position, mainly from sparseness of energy/resources. But if they are militarily hostile, their size may be estimated as a fraction of a star, so they can be excluded from the alliance. E.g. perhaps by comparing their activity or energy use to starred settlements.\n4-- \nA polity/race/alliance/system may end up including stars outside the Milky Way. Those exo-galactic stars will not be included in this question, it is only including stars considered in the milky way.\n5-- \nThe question body sometimes uses language like \"membership\". But there is no requirement that they be in some official faction membership. Only that they are not militarily hostile. Other questions will have more strict definitions of inclusion. This version's criterion is meant to be very inclusive and generous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:16.041Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "9999-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7575/2024-taiwanese-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese politics has been the attitude towards reunification. \nThe \"Pan-Blue\" coalition led by the Kuomintang (KMT) is sympathetic to some version of integration or reunification, whereas the incumbent \"Pan-Green\" coalition led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in favor of Taiwanese independence. [The next presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) will have implications for cross-strait relations, US-China relations, and the future of Taiwanese sovereignty.\nWill the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?\nThe question resolves positive if a candidate nominated by the DPP wins the presidential election, according to the Central Election Commission or other reputable media sources.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:21.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-24T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first woman win the World Chess Championships?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7576/date-of-first-woman-world-championship-win/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Since the start of competitive chess in the West](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), the game has been dominated by men, and every FIDE World Chess Champion has been male. Currently, no woman is in the top 20 rankings, with the highest ranked woman at 2658 (Yifan Hou) and the 20th ranked man at 2736 (Hikaru Nakamura). \nThe FIDE World Chess Championships are open to people of any gender, so women may compete in the tournament and earn the title of Chess World Champion.\nWhen will get we the first female world champion?\nThis question resolves to the time that a cisgender woman wins the FIDE World Chess Championship. If a female-presenting contestant is not publicly known to be biologically of a different sex at the time of winning the Championship, it will be assumed that they are biologically female.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:26.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will President Teodoro Obiang leave office in Equatorial Guinea?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7581/equatorial-guineas-obiang-exit-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teodoro_Obiang_Nguema_Mbasogo), born 5 June 1942, is an Equatoguinean politician and former military officer who has served as the 2nd president of Equatorial Guinea since August 1979. He is the second-longest consecutively serving current non-royal national leader in the world.\nAfter graduating from military school, Obiang held numerous positions under the presidency of his uncle, Francisco Macías Nguema, before ousting him in a military coup that took place in August 1979.\nObiang has been widely accused of widespread human rights abuses, corruption and abuse of power. In marked contrast to the trend toward democracy in most of Africa, Equatorial Guinea is currently a dominant-party state, in which Obiang's Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea (PDGE) holds virtually all governing power in the nation. The constitution provides Obiang sweeping powers, including the right to rule by decree, effectively making his government a legal dictatorship.\nIn July 2003, [state-operated radio declared Obiang \"the country's god\"](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3098007.stm) with \"all power over men and things.\" It added that the president was \"in permanent contact with the Almighty\" and \"can decide to kill without anyone calling him to account and without going to hell.\" He personally made similar comments in 1993. Macías had also proclaimed himself a god.\nObiang has encouraged his cult of personality by ensuring that public speeches end in well-wishing for himself rather than for the nation as a whole. Many important buildings have a presidential lodge, many towns and cities have streets commemorating Obiang's coup against Macías, and many people wear clothes with his face printed on them.\nA [2006 article published in Forbes magazine](https://www.forbes.com/2006/05/04/rich-kings-dictators_cz_lk_0504royals.html?sh=136e187910f9) suggested that Obiang gathered roughly $700 million of the country's wealth in US bank accounts. \nObiang's opponents have [accused him of cannibalism.](https://web.archive.org/web/20191230185624/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-worlds-enduring-dictators-teodoro-obiang-nguema-mbasogo-equatorial-guinea-19-06-2011/) Exiled rival politician Severo Moto has said that Obiang \"systematically eats his political rivals\", and that [he once \"devoured\" the brain and testicles of a police commissioner.](https://web.archive.org/web/20090401054839/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/teodoro-obiang-nguema-a-brutal-bizarre-jailer-448575.html)\nWhen will President Teodoro Obiang leave office in Equatorial Guinea?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible media reports indicate that Teodoro Obiang has ceased to be the chief executive of Equatorial Guinea on a permanent or long-term basis. Temporary indispositions, such as for hospital treatment, will not automatically cause resolution; however, if Obiang does not act as the chief executive of the country for 30 days, he will be considered no longer the chief executive for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:36.852Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7583/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval-longer-range/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is repeating a [previous one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7324/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval/) but with a longer range of possible answers.\nRussia has started vaccinating adults from the general population with the Sputnik V COVID vaccine in December 2020. As of June 2021, it is authorized for use in 66+ other countries including India and Brazil. However, as of July 2021 it is not approved by the World Health Organization in its emergency use listing (EUL). Approval by WHO is important, for example, for people vaccinated with Sputnik V if they want to study in US schools or travel in places that require you to be vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine.\nAs of July 26, 2021 WHO lists Pfizer, Moderna, 5 variants of AstraZeneca, J&J, Sinopharm and Sinovac as being approved for emergency use. Sputnik V is in the pipeline, with meetings held, but additional data is required.\nWhen will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?\nThe question resolves on the date when WHO approval for Sputnik V vaccine is granted for emergency use. If such as an approval is not granted, this resolves at the upper bound.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:42.763Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-08-02T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7585/polish-democracy-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There have been [several](https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-end-of-democracy-in-poland) [suggestions](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/30/is-poland-retreating-from-democracy) that Polish democracy is in grave danger. Poland [lost its full democracy rating](https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/05/06/poland-no-longer-rated-as-full-democracy-in-new-freedom-house-index/) from [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House).\nThe ruling [Law and Justice party (PiS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_and_Justice) has introduced judicial reforms, which have been criticized as undermining the independence of the judiciary. The European Union has [expressed concern](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/europe/eu-poland-hungary-rule-of-law.html) that PiS is undermining Poland's democratic institutions.\n[The Economist's](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/02/02/global-democracy-has-a-very-bad-year) [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) measures democracy in various countries. As of 2020, Poland's democracy index is 6.85 making it a flawed democracy. What will Poland's democracy index be in 2030?\nWhat will Poland's Economist's Democracy Index be in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the value of The Economist Democracy Index in the 2030 report. If there is no such report, it will be resolved as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:47.909Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-07-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack by 2033?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591/ghouta-chemical-attack/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic.\nWill a mainstream American news outlet report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack?\nThis question will resolve positive if, on or before August 21, 2033 (20 years after the Ghouta chemical attack), three major mainstream American news outlets run an article suggesting that the Syrian government may not have carried out the Ghouta chemical attack, and at least one author of each of the articles believes that there is a more than 50% probability that the Syrian government did not carry out the attack. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nA year is given to make sure we know the author's opinions. The article cannot be an op-ed; it has to be reporting. A \"major mainstream news outlet\" refers to one of the following:\n---ABC News \n---CBS News \n---CNN \n---MSNBC \n---NBC News \n---The New York Times \n---The Washington Post \n---Bloomberg \n---NPR \n---The New Yorker \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:53.114Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-08-21T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-08-21T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7595/singapore-international-travel-reopens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Singapore, along with many other countries in the Asian-Pacific region, have kept borders closed to short-term travellers for [over a year](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-to-shut-borders-to-short-term-visitors-from-monday-1159pm).\nThis strategy has been remarkably successful, with the country only experiencing [37 deaths from covid-19](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/singapore), though spread among foreign workers who tend to be relatively young have pushed the number of cases to over 60,000. Among the countries that have largely kept covid-19 at bay, Singapore also has one of the fastest vaccination programmes, with [54% fully vaccinated and 73% vaccinated with at least one shot](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~SGP) as of 30 July 2021.\nAs such, the government has expressed a goal to [begin cautiously resuming international travel in September](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-26/singapore-sees-80-vaccinated-by-september-in-drive-to-reopen). If this works out, [Singapore would be one of the first 'covid-zero' countries to reopen to the world](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-13/-covid-zero-havens-find-reopening-harder-than-containing-virus). On the other hand, Singapore is currently [dealing with renewed restrictions](https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/phase-2-heightened-alert-dining-in-gathering-group-size-covid-19-15254140) owing to a renewed surge of cases from the Delta variant.\nThis question is based on another similar question about New Zealand that can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/).\nWhen will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nSingapore no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for [Safe Travel lanes](https://safetravel.ica.gov.sg/arriving/overview) or other mechanisms that place restrictions on the purpose of travel, excluding the lanes that do not have such restrictions such as the Air Travel Pass or Air Travel Bubble.\n2-- \nSingapore no longer requires arrivals from the majority of (UN-recognized) countries to quarantine upon arrival (either home quarantine or hotel quarantine) for more than 48 hours. A short quarantine (≤48 hours) while waiting for a covid-19 test result meets this criteria.\nResolution would be based on the [Singapore Immigration & Checkpoints Authority website](https://www.ica.gov.sg/enter-depart).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:18:58.347Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T15:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of seats will the PAP win in the next Singaporean general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7596/seats-won-by-the-pap-in-the-next-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The PAP, or the People's action party, has won a supermajority of more than 2/3rds of seats for [every election in Singapore since 1968](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Action_Party).\nHowever, since the 2011 elections, the PAP appears to have been slowly losing dominance. [In 2011, the PAP won with only 60.14% of votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Singaporean_general_election), a historic low. In 2020, while they received 61.24% of votes, they received a historically low percentage of seats, [with 83/89 or 93% of elected seats going to the PAP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Singaporean_general_election).\nOne complicating factor in election predictions is that [publishing opinion polls is illegal during the election campaign period](https://www.ft.com/content/4880976c-c4ab-3d9d-ab54-7398b44994ea). This has resulted in a dearth of information, and makes it relatively difficult to gauge the sentiment of voters.\nWhat percentage of seats will the PAP win in the next Singaporean general election?\nThis will resolve based on credible media reports. The percentage of seats is defined as the number of seats won by the PAP, divided by the total number of elected Members of Parliament, multiplied by . This excludes Non-constituency Members of Parliament and Nominated Members of Parliament.\nThe next general election refers to the [General elections that must be held before the date of 23 November 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Singaporean_general_election). The exact date of polling day has not been set yet. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:03.535Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-25T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7597/milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Trevor Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) is an American [billionaire](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29/) and the founder and former executive chairman of [Nikola Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Corporation), a publicly-traded American company that presented a number of zero-emission vehicle concepts during the 2016–2020 period.\nIn September 2020, Milton resigned from his position as chairman after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice began investigating claims that Milton and Nikola committed securities fraud.\nIn July 2021, [a federal grand jury charged Milton with three counts of criminal fraud for lying about “nearly all aspects of the business” to bolster stock sales of the electric vehicle start-up,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/us-prosecutors-charge-trevor-milton-founder-of-electric-carmaker-nikola-with-three-counts-of-fraud.html) according to [an indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1418421/download) (PDF). A brief overview of the allegations is available [here.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-nikola-corporation-ceo-trevor-milton-charged-securities-fraud-scheme)\nMilton is charged with two counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud. The securities fraud counts carry maximum penalties of 20 and 25 years in prison, respectively. The wire fraud count carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. \n[Milton was freed by a judge on $100 million bond, after pleading not guilty to charges that he misled investors about the status of the electric-vehicle maker.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google) \nUnder terms of his release, he is limited in his movements and barred from contacting investors, other than ones with whom he has a personal relationship. He will live in Utah until his trial.\n[“Trevor Milton is innocent,” his lawyers said in a statement. “This is a new low in the government’s efforts to criminalize lawful business conduct. Every executive in America should be horrified.”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-freed-on-100-million-bail?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google)\nMilton is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if Trevor Milton is convicted of any federal charge of wire fraud or securities fraud relating to Nikola Corporation prior to January 1, 2024. State charges are not covered by this question.\nIf no convictions on said charges result before January 1 2024, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:08.670Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) is a fact checker [founded](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-startup-develops-the-ultimate-truth-machine-1.5457688) by [Saar Wilf](https://twitter.com/saarwilf/with_replies). Rootclaim is offering a bet to see if someone can win a debate on [some ](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/)[of](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/) its conclusions. No one has taken any of the challenges yet.\nWill someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if before 2025, Rootclaim or its representatives indicate (on its [website](http://rootclaim.com), social media, or elsewhere) that someone has taken up the Rootclaim challenge, and it is not retracted before that time.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:13.870Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7599/usa-withdraws-from-a-mutual-defence-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.\nCurrently the USA is party to 6 mutual defence treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nWill the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports completion of a process for the USA to withdraw from any of the following treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports that the USA withdrew military or financial support from any of the above treaties without following the process of withdrawal outlined in the relevant treaties for a continuous period of one year.\nIf a sufficient number of parties to any of the above treaties (other than the USA) withdraws (as above) for the treaty to be dissolved, this does not count towards a positive resolution. For example see Southeast Asia Treaty which dissolved in 1977 after France and Pakistan withdrew.\nResolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. (copied verbatim from [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) )\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:19.040Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will COVID-19 be eradicated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7601/covid-19-eradication/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as [Israel](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel).\nSufficiently widespread vaccination (and natural antibodies from infection) could eventually succeed in eradicating the virus; alternatively it might become an endemic virus like other coronaviruses. Future mutations might require the development of new types of booster doses. Animal reservoirs complicate the picture even more, as full vaccination in humans might not be sufficient to drive it to extinction.\nWhen will COVID-19 be eradicated?\nThis question will resolve on the date of announcement by the WHO (or a similar global health agency) that COVID-19 (of any and all variants) has been eradicated globally.\nIn the case the WHO does not exist or is not the best source, Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use a superior source.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:24.189Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7603/variant-of-high-consequence-before-aug-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. The Delta variant, for instance, is [thought](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005395/23_July_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_Delta.pdf) to be more transmissible than other SARS-CoV-2 variants and to result in reduced vaccine effectiveness.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n---Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are six VOIs: B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.525, B.1.526, B.1.617.1, and B.1.617.3. \n---Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are four VOCs: B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma). \n---Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant that has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 July, there are no VOHCs. \nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostics \n---Evidence to suggest a significantly reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nWill the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html) page before 1 August 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:29.372Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\nWhat will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the peak in “Weekly CLI Visits (Count)” in the [“ED Visits for COVID-Like Illness (CLI)” VDH graph](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/). The week ending 7 August 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 July 2022 is the last week covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7605/date-of-pre-aug-2022-va-cli-visits-peak/) related question on when the peak will be.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:34.577Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7605/date-of-pre-aug-2022-va-cli-visits-peak/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\nWhen will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?\nThis will resolve as the date of the peak in “CLI Visits (Count)” in the [“ED Visits for COVID-Like Illness (CLI)” VDH graph](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/). \nThe week ending 7 August 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 July 2022 is the last week covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/) related question on what the peak will be.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:39.774Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7607/-va-covid-deaths-in-va-lctfs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the U.S. CDC, [long-term care facilities (LCTFs)](https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html) are nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, and assisted living facilities that provide care to people unable to live independently. \nAs of 30 July 2021, there have been [4,265](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Virginian LCTFs, which represents ~37% of the total [11,532](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/) confirmed deaths in Virginia as of this date.\nThere is a need to know whether deaths in Virginian LCTFs will continue to make up a substantial proportion of overall COVID-19 deaths going forward. Recent survey data indicates [90.6%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/A-Descriptive-Analysis-COVID-19-Vaccine-Uptake-in-Long-term-Care-Facilities-of-Virginia-March-2021-1.pdf) of LCTF residents have received at least one vaccine dose.\nWhat percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur in LCTFs as of 1 August 2022. Only new deaths that are reported after 30 July 2021 will be considered for this question. The cumulative totals as of 30 July 2021 (4,265 deaths in LCTFs and 11,532 total deaths) will be subtracted from the cumulative totals as of 1 August 2022 for resolution and then divided (LCTF COVID deaths/all COVID deaths). \nAs of 30 July 2021, [4,265](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Virginian LCTFs — see the deaths figure for “Long Term Care Facilities” under “Cases and Deaths by Outbreak Facility Type - State Totals” on the [VDH Outbreaks page](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/). As of 30 July 2021, [11,532](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/) COVID-19 deaths have occurred in Virginia — see the “total deaths” figure on the [VDH summary dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia/).\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:44.920Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7610/3rd-grader-math-test-pass-rate-for-2021-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is [substantial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/students-falling-behind/2020/12/06/88d7157a-3665-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) [concern](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/us/coronavirus-education-lost-learning.html) that many students in the U.S. have recently fallen behind compared to where they would have been had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. In particular, many students seem to have struggled with [remote online learning](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/education/2020/12/13/covid-online-school-tutoring-plan/6334907002/). A December 2020 [study](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/covid-19-and-learning-loss-disparities-grow-and-students-need-help#) by McKinsey & Co. estimates that white students have been set back by one to three months in math, while students of color have been set back by three to five months.\nIn the 2018-2019 school year, the Standard of Learning (SOL) assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders was [82.23%](https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex/f?p=152:1:12132392610818:SHOW_REPORT::::).\nWhat will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of data provided by the [Standard of Learning assessment program](https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex/f?p=152:1:12132392610818:SHOW_REPORT::::) of the Virginia Department of Education.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:50.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7614/cdc-recommends-booster-for-all-vaccinated-ppl/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It [remains](https://www.vox.com/2021/7/24/22591591/covid-vaccine-booster-shots-immunocompromised-older-americans) [unclear](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/science/covid-vaccine-booster-third-shot.html) when public health agencies in the U.S. might recommend a SARS-CoV-2 booster dose for all fully vaccinated Americans. There are currently [three vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) authorized for emergency use in the U.S.: the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the two-dose Moderna vaccine, and the single-dose Janssen vaccine.\nOn 8 July 2021 Pfizer and BioNTech released a [statement](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-07/Delta_Variant_Study_Press_Statement_Final_7.8.21.pdf?IPpR1xZjlwvaUMQ9sRn2FkePcBiRPGqw) saying they “believe that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection” — they propose that this third dose would either be another dose of the original BNT162b2 vaccine or an updated version that targets the Delta variant’s spike protein. Later on 8 July 2021, the U.S. CDC and FDA issued a [joint statement](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s-07082021.html) saying “Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time.” In its 28 July 2021 second quarter [results](https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/Q2-2021-PFE-Earnings-Release.pdf), Pfizer states that “newly disclosed data demonstrates that a third dose [of the original BNT162b2 vaccine] elicits neutralizing titers against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that are more than five times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than after two doses.”\nModerna co-founder Derrick Rossi has also [suggested](https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/moderna-co-founder-says-covid-19-booster-shots-will-almost-certainly-be-needed-1.5501545) that a booster will “almost certainly” be needed. There also remains ongoing [discussion](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/booster-may-be-needed-jj-shot-delta-variant-spreads-some-experts-already-taking-2021-06-25/) as to whether recipients of the single-dose Janssen vaccine will need a second booster dose.\nWhen will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?\nThis resolves as the date when the [U.S. CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/archives.html) recommends that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose against COVID-19 — meaning a third dose for recipients of Pfizer or Moderna, or a second dose for recipients of Janssen. \nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2022, then this resolves as > 31 July 2022.\nThe booster dose recommendation can be for either an additional dose of vaccine with the original formulation or a modified dose specifically targeted at a new variant of concern. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:19:56.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 333,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7615/vaccination-rate-ratio-black-virginians/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia [has prioritized](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/diversity/equity-leadership-taskforce/) [health equity](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/health-equity/office-of-health-equity/covid-19-health-equity-guidebook/) in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome.\nThe Virginia Department of Health [reports](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/03/08/covid-19-disparities-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-virginia/) COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Black group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Black group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group.\nAs of 9 July 2021, which comes after a series of quality assurance checks, this vaccination rate ratio is [0.8](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/vdh.omhhe/viz/DisparityRatios/Cumulative).\nWhen will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?\nThe question will resolve as the date when the data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's [COVID-19 Data Insights Blog](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/) or [dashboard](https://public.tableau.com/profile/vdh.omhhe#!/vizhome/DisparityRatios/Cumulative) shows the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reached or exceeded 1.0.\nSee [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7120/vaccination-rate-ratios-black-virginians/) similar recently closed question.\nIf this does not occur before 31 December 2021, then this resolves as > Dec 31, 2021.\nIn the past, the data on vaccination rate ratios has undergone extensive changes as a result of quality assurance checks. While these quality assurance checks now seem to be complete, please note that such quality assurance checks may again affect the data in the future. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:01.441Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7620/new-covid-outbreaks-in-va-ltcfs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the U.S. CDC, [long-term care facilities (LCTFs)](https://www.cdc.gov/longtermcare/index.html) are nursing homes, skilled nursing facilities, and assisted living facilities that provide care to people unable to live independently. \nAs of 30 July 2021, there have been [1,082](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks in Virginian LCTFs.\nThere is a need to know whether there will continue to be a substantial number of COVID-19 outbreaks in Virginian LCTFs going forward. Recent survey data indicates [90.6%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/07/A-Descriptive-Analysis-COVID-19-Vaccine-Uptake-in-Long-term-Care-Facilities-of-Virginia-March-2021-1.pdf) of LCTF residents have received at least one vaccine dose.\nHow many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the number of [new COVID-19 outbreaks that occur in Virginian LCTFs](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-outbreaks/) as of 1 August 2022. Only new outbreaks that are reported after 30 July 2021 will be considered for this question. The cumulative totals as of 30 July 2021 (1,082) will be subtracted from the cumulative totals as of 1 August 2022.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:06.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7621/peak--ili-in-va-during-2021-2022-flu-season/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.\nWhat will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?\nThis will resolve on 1 June 2022 as the weekly peak percent ILI during the 2021-2022 flu season in Virginia as reported by the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). \nIf the peak percent ILI exceeds 30%, this resolves as “>30”.\nIf VDH ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:12.012Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) be disproved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7630/disproving-seth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Strong Exponential Type Hypothesis (SETH)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_time_hypothesis#Definition) is the claim that, for every , if is large the -SAT problem takes time more than on an input of size . [Some experts believe](https://www.imsc.res.in/~vraman/exact/ryan.pdf) that SETH is false. When will SETH be disproved?\nWhen will the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) be disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date of a publication in a major mathematical journal or computer science conference which finds an algorithm for the -SAT problem that runs in time for all . It will wait either 2 years after such a publication or until the resolve date before waiting to resolve, whichever is closer.\nIf there is a proof published that shows that such an algorithm is impossible, this question will close retroactively 1 day before the paper is published/preprinted. The question would resolve as >2121.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:17.266Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2122-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7631/israel-recognizing-palestine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.\nWill Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Palestine) is legally recognized by the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:22.722Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2048-05-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-02-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7634/-va-eviction-cases-filed-in-q4-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The nationwide eviction moratorium in the U.S. [expired](https://apnews.com/article/business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d6bfbe4aff82bbcf7586a3936ea98731) on 31 July, meaning [several thousand](https://www.nbc12.com/2021/07/29/thousands-virginians-could-face-eviction-after-federal-moratorium-ends-saturday-heres-how-get-va-rent-relief-money/) Virginians might soon face eviction. \nAccording to an [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/07/30/dcmdvaevictionprotection/) in the Washington Post, the situation in Virginia is as follows:\nIn Virginia, eviction protections were tied to the commonwealth’s state of emergency. Under that provision, landlords were required to tell delinquent tenants about rent relief programs and were not allowed to file evictions against tenants for nonpayment of rent unless the renter had refused to apply for relief money. According to Pidikiti-Smith, the state provision gave tenants a protective layer at the beginning of the process, forcing the landlord and tenant to work together for relief money. If that step failed, the CDC [nationwide] moratorium served as a backstop to removal. The Virginia protection, however, expired with the commonwealth’s state of emergency on June 30. Currently, landlords are required to provide a 14-day notice before filing an eviction, and tenants who can prove they lost income due to the pandemic can apply for a 60-day delay in the case.\nThe [RVA Eviction Lab](https://rampages.us/rvaevictionlab/) tracks eviction statistics in Virginia. Their 2021 second quarter [report](https://rampages.us/rvaevictionlab/wp-content/uploads/sites/33937/2021/07/RVAEL_2021-Q2-report_FINAL.pdf) states the following:\neviction filings, according to our current data, declined from 8,830 in the first quarter to 6,921 in the second quarter...these numbers likely do not capture the true scope of housing instability and evictions in the Commonwealth this past quarter, as they will likely shift upward with more up-to-date court reporting.\nHow many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?\nThis will resolve based on the number of eviction cases that are filed in the fourth quarter of 2021 according to the Q4 2022 RVA Eviction Lab quarterly report, which will be accessed [here](https://rampages.us/rvaevictionlab/) — the Q4 2022 report will be consulted since it is expected to contain more up-to-date court reporting for Q4 2021.\nIf the RVA Eviction Lab ceases to track this information, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:28.702Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average age of new motherhood in the U.S. in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7637/new-motherhood-age-in-2050-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Future fertility rates are important for policy. The long-term changes in age structure and human capital have effects on society.\nA major contributor is the age when women have their first child.\nWhat will be the average age of new motherhood, in the U.S., in 2050?\nOur best estimate is likely to be from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which publishes the National Vital Statistics Report. If such figures are only published by a different organization we can use that.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no official figures being published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:33.882Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-06-06T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7640/dominic-cummings-in-power-again/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dominic Cummings is a [British political strategist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings) most known for his role as Chief Advisor to Boris Johnson from 24 July 2019 until 13 November 2020, and for directing the Vote Leave campaign before then.\nRecently, his [substack](https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-performance-startup-government) contains the phrase: \"If we’re going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples.\"\nThis question doesn't concern itself whether Dominic Cummings is going to do politics/government \"much better\", but solely with whether he is \"going to do government\" again.\n\"Being in power\" is a fairly [fuzzy concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_concept), but for the purposes of this question, it is taken to mean: \n---Being employed at least three days a week by any one of: a UK political party, the UK Civil Service, a UK politician, or \n---holding political office in the UK, the EU, or any organization of the [UN system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System) \nWill Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?\nAt question resolution time, a lone Metaculus moderator will consider whether there is a case to be made that resolution is ambiguous. If there is such a case to be made, the question resolves by simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators or admins. Otherwise, the lone Metaculus moderators resolves the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:39.051Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the Labour Party win at the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7650/labour-seats-at-next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election): \n---The Conservative Party won 365 seats \n---The Labour Party won 202 seats \n---The Scottish National Party won 48 seats \n---The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats \n---The remaining 24 seats were won by Northern Irish parties (18), Plaid Cymru (4), the Green Party (1) and the Speaker of the House of Commons (1).\nThe next UK general election is expected to be held in 2024 at the latest (see Metaculus predictions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)).\nConstituency boundaries may be altered ahead of the next election. The [independent boundary reviews](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05929/) must be completed by 1 July 2023. One certain impact of these changes (if adopted in time) is that the number of Scottish seats will fall by 2, the Welsh number will fall by 8, and the English number will rise by 10.\nThis question is part of a set: see also questions about the [Conservatives](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7651/conservative-seats-at-next-uk-election/), [SNP](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7653/snp-seats-at-next-uk-election/) and [Liberal Democrats](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7652/lib-dem-seats-at-next-uk-election/).\nHow many seats will the Labour Party win at the next UK general election?\nThis question should close when polls open and the timing and result of the resolution should be based on the BBC News website if possible, though the Speaker (if elected as such) is not to be counted towards their former party's total.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:44.212Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the Conservative Party win at the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7651/conservative-seats-at-next-uk-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election): \n---The Conservative Party won 365 seats \n---The Labour Party won 202 seats \n---The Scottish National Party won 48 seats \n---The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats \n---The remaining 24 seats were won by Northern Irish parties (18), Plaid Cymru (4), the Green Party (1) and the Speaker of the House of Commons (1).\nThe next UK general election is expected to be held in 2024 at the latest (see Metaculus predictions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)).\nConstituency boundaries may be altered ahead of the next election. The [independent boundary reviews](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05929/) must be completed by 1 July 2023. One certain impact of these changes (if adopted in time) is that the number of Scottish seats will fall by 2, the Welsh number will fall by 8, and the English number will rise by 10.\nThis question is part of a set: see also questions about the [Labour Party](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7650/labour-seats-at-next-uk-general-election/), [SNP](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7653/snp-seats-at-next-uk-election/) and [Liberal Democrats](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7652/lib-dem-seats-at-next-uk-election/).\nHow many seats will the Conservative Party win at the next UK general election?\nThis question should close when polls open and the timing and result of the resolution should be based on the BBC News website if possible, though the Speaker (if elected as such) is not to be counted towards their former party's total.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:49.381Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win at the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7652/lib-dem-seats-at-next-uk-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election): \n---The Conservative Party won 365 seats \n---The Labour Party won 202 seats \n---The Scottish National Party won 48 seats \n---The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats \n---The remaining 24 seats were won by Northern Irish parties (18), Plaid Cymru (4), the Green Party (1) and the Speaker of the House of Commons (1).\nThe next UK general election is expected to be held in 2024 at the latest (see Metaculus predictions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)).\nConstituency boundaries may be altered ahead of the next election. The [independent boundary reviews](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05929/) must be completed by 1 July 2023. One certain impact of these changes (if adopted in time) is that the number of Scottish seats will fall by 2, the Welsh number will fall by 8, and the English number will rise by 10.\nThis question is part of a set: see also questions about the [Conservatives](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7651/conservative-seats-at-next-uk-election/), [Labour Party](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7650/labour-seats-at-next-uk-general-election/) and [SNP](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7653/snp-seats-at-next-uk-election/).\nHow many seats will the Liberal Democrats win at the next UK general election?\nThis question should close when polls open and the timing and result of the resolution should be based on the BBC News website if possible, though the Speaker (if elected as such) is not to be counted towards their former party's total.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:54.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the Scottish National Party win at the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7653/snp-seats-at-next-uk-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election): \n---The Conservative Party won 365 seats \n---The Labour Party won 202 seats \n---The Scottish National Party won 48 seats \n---The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats \n---The remaining 24 seats were won by Northern Irish parties (18), Plaid Cymru (4), the Green Party (1) and the Speaker of the House of Commons (1).\nThe next UK general election is expected to be held in 2024 at the latest (see Metaculus predictions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)).\nConstituency boundaries may be altered ahead of the next election. The [independent boundary reviews](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05929/) must be completed by 1 July 2023. One certain impact of these changes (if adopted in time) is that the number of Scottish seats will fall by 2, the Welsh number will fall by 8, and the English number will rise by 10.\nThis question is part of a set: see also questions about the [Conservatives](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7651/conservative-seats-at-next-uk-election/), [Labour Party](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7650/labour-seats-at-next-uk-general-election/), [SNP](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7653/snp-seats-at-next-uk-election/) and [Liberal Democrats](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7652/lib-dem-seats-at-next-uk-election/).\nHow many seats will the Scottish National Party win at the next UK general election?\nThis question should close when polls open and the timing and result of the resolution should be based on the BBC News website if possible, though the Speaker (if elected as such) is not to be counted towards their former party's total.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:20:59.755Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7655/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us-full-range/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of economic data, such as the World Bank.\nRelated questions:\n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n[GWP in 2100, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/)\n[GWP in 2200, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/) - (lower range version of this question)\nGWP in 2200, in trillions of US$ (big range) - (this question)\n[Largest GWP in the next billion years](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7662/largest-gwp-in-the-next-billion-years/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:04.910Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-21T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-20T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1000002200, in trillions of 2020 US$?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7662/largest-gwp-in-the-next-billion-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will be the highest real Gross World Product for the period 2021 through 1000002020, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nThis question will resolve as the GWP of whichever year in the next billion years (i.e. the period 2021 through 1000002020) has the highest GWP.\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of economic data, such as the World Bank.\nRelated questions:\n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n[GWP in 2100, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/)\n[GWP in 2200, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/)\n[GWP in 2200, in trillions of US$ (big range)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7655/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us-full-range/)\nLargest GWP in the next billion years - (this question)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:10.111Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-21T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-20T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\nWill USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:15.262Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [2024 Olympic Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe US team has [won the most medals at every Olympic games going back to Atlanta 1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_at_the_Olympics).\nHow many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?\nThis question resolves to the number of medals won by the United States Olympic Team at Paris 2024. (Gold, Silver and Bronze medals all count as 1).\nRelated Questions\n---[Will USA top the medal table in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/) \n---[Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:20.421Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-15T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nFrance is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n2000: 6th 2004: 7th 2008: 10th 2012: 7th 2016: 7th 2020: 8th \nWill France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?\nThis question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nRelated questions\n---[How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/) \n---[Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:25.561Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a human fatality during travel to or from a heavenly body?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7670/first-death-in-extraplanetary-space-travel/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Under various definitions of spaceflight, it's commonly accepted that as of this writing, [19 humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) have lost their lives taking part in the practice.\nSo far, nobody has died attempting to travel to or from another celestial body away from the earth, although the [possibility has existed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13).\nThis question asks when the first human will die in space during a trip to or from a heavenly body.\nWhen will there be a human fatality during travel to or from a heavenly body?\nAny trip to or from any celestial object(s) that are not man-made qualifies.\nThe death(s) can occur for any reason.\nThe individuals in question must have died at least 100,000 miles (160934 km) from the earth's surface, chosen as slightly less than half the minimum distance from the earth to the moon, to differentiate the death from present historical spaceflight fatalities which have all occurred in close proximity to the earth.\nIf there is a potential fulfillment of the distance criterion that is not completely clear, a standard of \"more likely than not\" will be used to resolve. Otherwise, the question does not resolve.\nDeath of at least one human will be determined as reported by at least 3 credible, mainstream news sources.\nThe definition of human should include some leeway to incorporate biological or cybernetic modifications, subject to moderator discretion.\nIf such an event does not occur by 2100-01-01, the question resolves as \">2100\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:31.365Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-18T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-08-23T18:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T19:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7721/date-of-next-nasa-moon-landing/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/) \n---[Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?](https://redesign.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/) \n---[Will China land the next person on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/) \nThe U.S. Artemis Program [pushed to land U.S. astronauts on the Moon by 2024](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/01/13/trump-nasa-moon-2024/) under the Trump administration, but this goal is seeming increasingly unlikely. Some suggest the timeline was [never really feasible at all](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/04/01/nasa-is-scrambling-meet-white-house-mandate-return-astronauts-moon-by/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4).\nMost recently, [delays with two lunar-exploration spacesuits](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/08/spacesuits-and-lawsuits-put-2024-moon-landing-jeopardy/184457/) seem to put the 2024 timeline in even greater jeopardy.\nNonetheless, U.S. officials increasingly view lunar exploration as an element of [Great Power Competition with Russia and China](https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/08/if-china-and-us-claim-same-moon-base-site-who-wins/184352/), and have strong incentives to keep to their ambitious timeline.\nWhen will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve on the next date that NASA astronauts step on the lunar surface again.\nIf no such NASA landing occurs by 2040, the question will resolve as \">2040\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:41.936Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7722/nuclear-sharing-and-tpnw/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Several U.S. allies participate in [nuclear sharing through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm). According to publicly-available information, these countries are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. These countries occupy a [special position](https://k1project.columbia.edu/news/caring-about-sharing) in the nuclear world; they are classified as \"non-nuclear\" countries for the purposes of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but they host nuclear weapons on their territory.\nThe Federation of American Scientists provides an overview of [U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe](https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Brief2019_EuroNukes_CACNP_.pdf).\nThe United States and NATO leadership continue to view this arrangement as crucial to the defense of Europe and the security of the free world, and make this case publicly, as in this recent op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, \"[Germany’s support for nuclear sharing is vital to protect peace and freedom](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_175663.htm).\"\nThis attitude, however, is not necessarily in line with domestic audiences, some of whom have long protested stationing weapons of mass destruction on their purportedly \"non-nuclear\" soil. Germany is a valuable example. Recent polls conducted by the Munich Security conference show that [66% percent of respondents](https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/MSC_Germany_Report_10-2020_Engl.pdf) said they believed Germany should “renounce nuclear deterrence entirely.” Polling by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons similarly shows that [public opinion in EU states opposes nuclear weapons](https://www.icanw.org/polls_public_opinion_in_eu_host_states_firmly_opposes_nuclear_weapons).\nPublic opinion has helped to drive the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The treaty is widely understood to be symbolic, especially without the signatures of any nuclear power, but after collecting 50 signatures, the [TPNW entered into force in January 2021](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20entered%20into%20force,approval%2C%20or%20accession%20was%20deposited.). It is \"the first treaty in history that categorically and permanently prohibits for all its parties the testing, possession, transfer, use, or threat of use of nuclear weapons, and that aims for universal participation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-05/legal-and-political-myths-of-the-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons/))\nIn the ICAN poll cited above, 68% of polled Germans believed the country should sign the TPNW. These developments, and the German Green Party's traditional opposition to all things nuclear, have led to an examination of [the future of nuclear sharing given the upcoming German election](https://www.brookings.edu/research/germanys-upcoming-election-and-the-future-of-nuclear-sharing/). \nSignature of the TPNW by any current nuclear-sharing state would likely significantly alter NATO deterrence policy, and would indicate a crack in the alliance. Thus, even if the TPNW has no \"teeth,\" as critics point out, the outcome of this question has significant consequences for the future of transatlantic security environment.\nThis question asks whether any NATO member state currently hosting U.S. nuclear weapons will sign on to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 11:59pm on 31 December 2022.\nWill a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if any NATO member state hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of a \"nuclear sharing\" agreement as of 11 August 2021 signs on to the TPNW before the end of 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:47.102Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the IPCC's best estimate of the transient climate response in 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7724/ipccs-best-estimate-of-tcr-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Transient climate response (TCR) is a measure that is used in climate science to quantify the short-term impact of an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations on the climate system, particularly on the global mean temperature. The IPCC [defines](https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/345.htm) the transient climate response as follows:\nThe \"transient climate response\", TCR, is the temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling and the \"equilibrium climate sensitivity\", , is the temperature change after the system has reached a new equilibrium for doubled CO2, i.e., after the \"additional warming commitment\" has been realised.\nThe temperature change at any time during a climate change integration depends on the competing effects of all of the processes that affect energy input, output, and storage in the ocean. In particular, the global mean temperature change which occurs at the time of CO2 doubling for the specific case of a 1%/yr increase of CO2 is termed the \"transient climate response\" (TCR) of the system.\nIn its [sixth assessment report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/) published in 2021, the IPCC gave a best estimate of 1.8 C for TCR, with a \"likely\" range of 1.4 C to 2.2 C and a \"very likely\" range of 1.2 C to 2.4 C.\nWhat will be the IPCC's best estimate of the transient climate response in 2100?\nThis question will resolve as the best estimate of the transient climate response, as currently defined by the IPCC, reported by the IPCC in its first assessment report that is published after the year 2100. If the IPCC changes the definition of TCR they use in their report, for instance looking at a quadrupling of carbon dioxide instead of a doubling, the value reported by the IPCC will be adjusted to match their current definition of TCR. If such an unambiguous adjustment is not possible due to a substantial change in the definition used by the IPCC, or if the IPCC ceases to report TCR estimates, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:21:52.264Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will net U.S. geothermal electricity production be in the year 2026, in GWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7728/us-net-geothermal-electricity-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Earth contains a [vast reservoir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_energy#Renewability_and_sustainability) of thermal energy under its surface, and this energy is being constantly replenished by radioactive decay. However, it has been historically infeasible to dig deep underground to access this energy, so we have exploited geothermal resources where they bubble to the surface. Humans have used hot springs for bathing and cooking since prehistory. The late 1800s saw the first industrial uses of geyser steam, and with the 1900s came the first geothermal electric power plants. To this day, geothermal power plants (like those at [The Geysers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers) in California) are sited on unique geological features that bring the thermal energy close to the surface. As a result, geothermal has remained a niche energy solution. The US generates more geothermal electricity than any other nation, but in 2020 geothermal [accounted](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vtvv&geo=g&sec=g&linechart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.GEO-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.PEL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.PC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.OOG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.SUN-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.BIO-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WWW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WAS-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HPS-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.OTH-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.TSN-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.DPV-US-99.A&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.A~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.A&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.A&freq=A&start=2001&end=2020&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0) for only 0.4% of US net electricity generation.\nHowever, [proponents](https://elidourado.com/blog/geothermal/) [argue](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/10/21/21515461/renewable-energy-geothermal-egs-ags-supercritical) that geothermal energy production is on the verge of a major scalability breakthrough. They claim that advances in deep drilling and hydraulic fracturing, pioneered by the oil and gas industry, will enable creation of power plants nearly anywhere on Earth. Unlike solar and wind installations, these plants would provide a constant supply of base load power that does not vary with seasons or weather. And unlike nuclear power, geothermal could be used by all of the world's nations without proliferating fissile materials or nuclear technology. So is the \"sun beneath our feet\" the key to unlocking a future of abundant, carbon-free energy?\nWhat will net U.S. geothermal electricity production be in the year 2026, in GWh?\nAccording to the EIA, net generation is [defined](https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Net%20generation) as: \"The amount of gross generation less the electrical energy consumed at the generating station(s) for station service or auxiliaries. Note: Electricity required for pumping at pumped-storage plants is regarded as electricity for station service and is deducted from gross generation.\"\nThis question resolves based on the first [EIA Monthly Energy Review report](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php) which includes total numbers for the year of 2026. The table used for resolution will be \"Electricity Net Generation: Total (All Sectors)\". As of 2021 these are reported in \"million kilowatt hours\" or gigawatt hours (GWh). If they are reported in some other unit at the time of resolution, that figure will be converted to GWh for question resolution. If the EIA Monthly Energy Review report is succeeded by some other report according to the EIA, then the question will use the total numbers for 2026 from that report.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:07.803Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many career points will LeBron James score in the NBA regular season when he retires?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7729/lebron-james-career-points/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "LeBron Raymone James is considered one of the greatest basketball players of all time. He currently has the third most regular season points of all time among all NBA players with 35,367 career points as of 2021. This question is asking how many points he will have by the time he retires from the NBA.\nHow many career points will LeBron James score in the NBA regular season when he retires?\nLeBron James' NBA career points as determined by the median of the following sources:\nNBA: [https://www.nba.com/stats/alltime/](https://www.nba.com/stats/alltime/) ESPN: [http://www.espn.com/nba/history/leaders](http://www.espn.com/nba/history/leaders) Basketball-Reference: [https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/…](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_career.html)\nafter multiple media sources can confirm that LeBron James has played his last career regular season NBA game.\nNote: this question resolves after LeBron James retires, so if he returns to the NBA after that and scores points, they would not count toward the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:12.999Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-10-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the land area of Singapore be in 2070 in square kilometres?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7732/land-area-of-singapore/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With [30 per cent of Singapore being less than 5 metres above mean sea level](https://www.nccs.gov.sg/faqs/impact-of-climate-change-and-adaptation-measures/), any increase in sea levels caused by climate change is an immediate and existential threat to the island republic.\nIn 2019, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has [mentioned](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/new-coastal-flood-protection-fund-to-tackle-rising-sea-levels) that 100 billion SGD will be set aside to mitigate rising sea level over the next 100 years. The government also plans to [expand the city-state by an additional 7-8%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Singapore#cite_note-ftn10-5) by 2030 through land reclamation. The [latest area](https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/society/environment/latest-data) in 2021 is 728.6 squared kilometres. \nWhat will the land area of Singapore be in 2070 in square kilometres?\n[Official statistics](https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/society/environment/latest-data) will be used to determine land area. If the linked site is no longer available, another source published by Singapore Government or reputable institution can be used to resolve this question.\nIf Singapore experiences a border change due to political reason, or the Republic ceases to exist independently, then this resolves as Ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:23.347Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7736/unique-games-conjecture-resolution/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. It states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory. It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.\nAt the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) by 2030. In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet.\nWill the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Boaz Barak writes publicly (on Twitter, a blog, or elsewhere) that Elchanan Mossel has won the bet. It resolves negatively if he announces Subhash Khot has won. If there is no announcement by the resolve date, then it resolves positively if there is a peer reviewed paper that was originally uploaded to the ArXiv in 2030 which is accepted in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference by the resolve date. Else, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:34.416Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.\nWill Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?\nThis question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. [\"Flagging\"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:39.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7740/marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big).\nWill marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040?\nIf recreational marijuana use is legal in at least 2/3rds of the land area currently encompassed by the aforementioned states (by any level of governmental action, whether federal or state-level or what may be) at any time (excluding anomalies that last for less than 6 months) prior to the final day of 2040, this question will resolve positively. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\nIf the surface of the Earth changes sufficiently drastically to make the described land area ill-defined, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:44.798Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a hybrid regime or better in its Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7741/russia-a-hybrid-regime-in-economists-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated to below 4.01 in 2011 and and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a hybrid regime or better in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 4.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a hybrid regime) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 4.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound.\nIf the Democracy index is no longer published, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:49.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Monetochka perform in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7742/when-will-monetochka-perform-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Monetochka (Монеточка) is the mononym used by [Liza Gyrdymova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetochka), a Russian singer-songwriter. Although popular in Russia, she is little-known in the west and has never toured or performed in the United States. There is some reason to think that she may perform or tour in the US as it has a large Russian-speaking population; in addition, the core assets of such a performer are in principle marketable internationally. \nWhen will Monetochka perform in the US?\nResolves when credible media reports or credible multimedia demonstrates that Monetochka has held at least one performance in the USA. Only one credible media report is required to resolve. The performance must have already taken place to resolve. \nPerformance is defined as Monetochka playing in-person in front of an in-person audience at least 3 of her songs at full length or longer, at one event in a single venue. The performance must be at least semi-public; i.e. performing for friends, family or business associates only does not count. The bar is set low on this criterion to allow for a relatively casual performance during a personal trip to the USA to qualify. \nPerformance in music videos filmed in the USA such as in \"нет монет\" does not resolve unless these are shot incidentally to a performance as described above. \nUpper boundary is open.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:22:55.104Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T19:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many UN member states will there be in 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7761/number-of-un-members-in-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [United Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations) has [193 member states.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations) [South Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan) is the most recent member state, joining on 2011-07-13.\nHow many UN member states will there be in 2070?\nThe question resolves as the number of [UN Member States](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states) on 2070-01-01, at 00:00 UTC.\nIf the UN no longer exists, then it resolves ambiguous. If there is an equivalent international governing body similar to the UN, Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use that in the place of the UN.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:00.305Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Morocco recognize Western Sahara?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7763/date-of-morocco-recognition-of-sadr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morocco) and the [Polisario Front](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polisario_Front) have a [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict) over the territory of [Western Sahara](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara). Morocco claims the area as part of its territory but Polisario claims it as part of the [Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahrawi_Arab_Democratic_Republic). Currently Morocco controls most of the territory and there is a [wall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moroccan_Western_Sahara_Wall) between the Moroccan-controlled and Polisario-controlled areas of Western Sahara. There have been [attempts to resolve the conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_peace_process) but they have not yet succeeded. Most countries [do not recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the territory but also do not recognize Western Sahara as an independent state.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Western_Sahara#Position_of_United_Nations_Security_Council_permanent_members)\nWhen will Morocco recognize Western Sahara?\nThis question resolves on the date of an official declaration by the Moroccan Government, the UN, or a consensus of credible media reports, that [Western Sahara](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahrawi_Arab_Democratic_Republic) is [legally recognized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_Sahrawi_Arab_Democratic_Republic) by [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morocco). \nTo resolve this question, both Morocco and Western Sahara must be separate states, such that the respective capitals of those states are within the 2021 borders of each state. If the states unify into one, that will not count as resolution for this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:05.443Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-06-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Serbia recognize Kosovo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7764/date-kosovo-recognizes-serbia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Serbia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia) claims the territory of [Kosovo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo). Both Serbia and Kosovo formed from the breakup of [Yugoslavia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslavia) amid [bloody conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars). Kosovo has a large ethnic Albanian population and views itself as an independent nation. [Many nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Kosovo) have recognized Kosovo, but it is [not a UN member](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Membership_of_Kosovo_in_international_organizations).\nWhen will Serbia recognize Kosovo?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that [Kosovo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo) is [legally recognized by](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Kosovo) [Serbia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia). Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If this does not occur before 2120-01-01, this question resolves as >2120-01-01. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:10.777Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2048-02-17T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Cyprus recognize North Cyprus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7765/date-of-cyprus-recognition-of-north-cyprus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Cyprus dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus_dispute) is a long-running conflict between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. In 1974, there was a [coup d'etat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Cypriot_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) by Greek nationalists, and then [Turkey invaded Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus). Following the invasion, Cyprus became split with the [Turkish north](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus) breaking off from [the rest of the country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus). Many experts [consider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus#Politics) Northern Cyprus to be a puppet state of [Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey).\nWhen will Cyprus recognize North Cyprus?\nThis question resolves on the date of an official declaration by the Cyprus Government, the UN, or a consensus of credible media reports, that [North Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus) is legally recognized by [Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus).\nTo resolve this question, both Cyprus and North Cyprus must be separate states, such that the respective capitals of those states are within the 2021 borders of each state. If the states unify into one, that will not count as resolution for this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:16.574Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-11-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7766/us-elects-third-partyindependent-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the Democratic or Republican Party cease to exist?](https://redesign.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/) \n[Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden), a [Democrat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29) is the current [President](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) of the [United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) The previous President, [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was a [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29). The last US president not to be from either party was [Millard Fillmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millard_Fillmore) of the [Whig Party.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_%28United_States%29)\nWhen will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?\nThe question resolves positive on the date that a President of the United States takes office who is not a member of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. If it does not happen by the resolve date, it resolves as >. If a President leaves a party in the middle of a term, that does not trigger a resolution.\nFor the purposes of this question, if within a span of 4 years, 75% or more congresspeople in a given party all change membership to another party, that second party will be considered the same party under a new name.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:21.752Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many of the new LessWrong book sets will be sold on Amazon by March 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7767/total-new-lesswrong-book-sales-by-march-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[LessWrong.com](http://LessWrong.com) receives many posts on-site each year from users of Metaculus, and in recent years the LW site team have begun to publish an annual collection of on-site essays for sale via Amazon. \nLast year the LW book set ([seen here](http://lesswrong.com/books)) sold at $29 and 3500-4000 sets were sold. This year a second set of LW books will be released on December 1st.\nHow many of the new LessWrong book sets will be sold on Amazon by March 1st 2022?\nThis question considers just physical book sales (not ebooks).\nThis question does not consider purchases of last year's books, only this year's.\nThis question only considers purchases made via Amazon, not any other sales channels, nor any free giveaways or prizes.\nThe LessWrong Team will announce (on Metaculus) their total Amazon book sales over the period of December, January, and February (counting all books that have been paid for by customers, even if they have not been shipped yet by Amazon), and that shall be the number this question resolves to.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:26.929Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-08T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7768/apple-papers-at-neurips-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[NeuRIPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conference_on_Neural_Information_Processing_Systems) is one of the leading machine learning conferences.\nFrom their [website](https://neurips.cc/):\nThe conference was founded in 1987 and is now a multi-track interdisciplinary annual meeting that includes invited talks, demonstrations, symposia, and oral and poster presentations of refereed papers. Along with the conference is a professional exposition focusing on machine learning in practice, a series of tutorials, and topical workshops that provide a less formal setting for the exchange of ideas.\nAt the 2020 NeurIPS conference, Apple had only two papers affiliated with them ([source](https://github.com/nd7141/icml2020/blob/master/neurips_2020_papers.txt), [archive](/web/20210817101042/https://github.com/nd7141/icml2020/blob/master/neurips_2020_papers.txt)), compared to 178 for Google (excluding Deepmind), 95 for Microsoft and 59 for Deepmind. ([source](https://medium.com/criteo-engineering/neurips-2020-comprehensive-analysis-of-authors-organizations-and-countries-a1b55a08132e))\nHow many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?\nThis question resolves with the number of papers on the NeurIPS conference in 2023 which include an author that states an affiliation with Apple Inc.\nA daughter company of Apple Inc. would also count towards the number. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:32.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-29T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7769/amazon-papers-at-neurips-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[NeuRIPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conference_on_Neural_Information_Processing_Systems) is one of the leading machine learning conferences.\nFrom their [website](https://neurips.cc/):\nThe conference was founded in 1987 and is now a multi-track interdisciplinary annual meeting that includes invited talks, demonstrations, symposia, and oral and poster presentations of refereed papers. Along with the conference is a professional exposition focusing on machine learning in practice, a series of tutorials, and topical workshops that provide a less formal setting for the exchange of ideas.\nAt the 2020 NeurIPS conference, Amazon had 17 papers affiliated with them ([source](https://github.com/nd7141/icml2020/blob/master/neurips_2020_papers.txt), [archive](/web/20210817101042/https://github.com/nd7141/icml2020/blob/master/neurips_2020_papers.txt)), compared to 178 for Google (excluding Deepmind), 95 for Microsoft and 59 for Deepmind. ([source](https://medium.com/criteo-engineering/neurips-2020-comprehensive-analysis-of-authors-organizations-and-countries-a1b55a08132e))\nHow many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?\nThis question resolves with the number of papers on the NeurIPS conference in 2023 which include an author that states an affiliation with Amazon.\nA daughter company of Amazon would also count towards the number. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:37.218Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-29T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7772/usa-imo-golds-at-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO)](https://www.imo-official.org/) is the premier mathematics competition for high school students. The [United States](https://www.imo-official.org/country_info.aspx?code=USA) [has participated](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA) in the IMO 47 times.\nHow many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves to the number of gold medals listed [here](https://www.imo-official.org/team_r.aspx?code=USA&year=2022) on the resolve date. If nothing is listed, it resolves ambiguous. If the IMO migrates to a different website or reformats, that will be used instead.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:42.374Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7775/2024-mens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool).\nWhat will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2024 Olympics. If the 2024 Olympics do not take place in 2024 then this question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:47.504Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7776/2024-olympic-womens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era. However, in 2021 both Elaine Thompson-Herah and Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce ran low 10.6x so the possibility of seeing Florence Griffith-Joyner's world record dropping is increasing.\nWhat will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2024 Olympics. If the 2024 Olympics do not take place in 2024 then this question will resolve ambiguous.\nRelated Questions:\n---[Men's 2024 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7775/2024-mens-100m-final/) \n---[Women's 2020 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:23:52.694Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will India's Economist's Democracy Index be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7781/indian-democracy-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, [many](https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-india-still-a-democracy-the-answer-isnt-so-clear-11618525073) [sources](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2021-03-18/decay-indian-democracy) [have](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56393944) [expressed](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/06/g7-india-narendra-modi-democracy/619144/) [concern](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/eiu-not-sharing-info-on-democracy-index-govt-101629050360548.html) about the future of [Indian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India) [democracy.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_India) There has been some concern that [Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party) is a [Hindu nationalist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi#Hindutva) and does not respect minority rights.\nThe Economist's Democracy Index measures democracy in various countries. As of 2020, India's democracy index is 6.61 making it a flawed democracy. What will India's democracy index be in 2030?\nWhat will India's Economist's Democracy Index be in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the value of The Economist Democracy Index in the 2030 report. If there is no such report, it will be resolved as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:03.159Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months, if it is operational through 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7782/date-ingenuity-ceases-flights-for-6-months/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the Mars helicopter, Ingenuity, stop making successful flights for 6 months?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7961/date-ingenuity-is-grounded-for-6-months/) (non-conditional version) \nNASA's Mars helicopter, [Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), landed on Mars on February 18, 2021, attached to the [Perseverance rover](https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/). At the time of writing this question it has since flown 12 times. Initially NASA intended the helicopter to undergo [5 test flights](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf), but the mission [has expanded](https://mars.nasa.gov/news/8936/nasas-ingenuity-helicopter-to-begin-new-demonstration-phase/) due to the success of the test flights and now Ingenuity is exploring Mars in conjunction with the Perseverance rover. The [announcement of further operations](https://mars.nasa.gov/news/8936/nasas-ingenuity-helicopter-to-begin-new-demonstration-phase/) contains the following quote, suggesting the current operations could end in August, but it is unclear what may happen beyond that point or what the longevity of the Ingenuity helicopter may be.\nThe team will assess flight operations after 30 sols and will complete flight operations no later than the end of August. That timing will allow the rover team time to wrap up its planned science activities and prepare for solar conjunction – the period in mid-October when Mars and Earth are on opposite sides of the Sun, blocking communications.\nWhen will the Mars helicopter, Ingenuity, stop making successful flights for 6 months?\nThe question resolves as the start date of the first 6 months period with no successful Ingenuity flights. If this period begins before 2022-01-01, the question will resolve ambiguously. The [Ingenuity flight log](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/#Flight-Log) will be used for resolution, but in the event the flight log is out of date or no longer being updated then announcements from NASA will be used.\n[EDIT] 2021-09-06 Sylvain changed the question from \"When will the Mars helicopter, Ingenuity, go 6 months without a successful flight?\" to \"When will the Mars helicopter, Ingenuity, stop making successful flights for 6 months?\". This means the question resolves at the beginning of the 6 months rather than the end.\n[EDIT] 2021-09-10 casens clarified that this question will resolve ambiguously if this 6 month period begins before 2022-01-01 \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:08.482Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-27T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-30T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7784/egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam) is a mega-dam across the Nile in Ethiopia. It's main purpose is as a hydroelectric dam to supply Ethiopia's energy needs.\nEgypt (downstream of the dam) have long been concerned about control of Nile waters and are concerned that the dam will reduce downstream flow.\nThere have been reports of Egypt planning an attack on the dam:\n--- \n[WikiLeaks published documents suggesting that Egypt were planning on bombing the GERD](http://www.meleszenawi.com/wikileaks-egypt-was-planning-to-bomb-the-ethiopian-grand-renaissance-dam-using-sudan-as-a-launchpad/)\n--- \n[The Egyptian Cabinet discussed attacking Ethiopia over the dam](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cabinet-advises-morsi-attack-ethiopia-2013-6)\nWill Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?\nA clear attempt by Egyptian forces (or forces linked to Egypt in media reports) to attack the GERD. Specific examples of attempts which would resolve this question positive:\n---A bombing attack on the dam \n---Special Forces or infantry units attempt to damage the dam \nSuccess of such actions is not required for this question to resolve positive, but the public must find out.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:13.646Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7786/100-deaths-in-india-pakistan-conflict-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since [partition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India), [India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India) and [Pakistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) have had a [tense relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and [many conflicts.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts) In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the [Kargil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War).\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:18.787Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7790/nyc-hurricane-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurricanes) and [New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes) are vulnerable to hurricanes. New York City was affected by [The 1938 New England Hurricane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane#New_York_City_and_western_Long_Island), and more recently by [Hurricane Sandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy), among others.\nWill New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2030, credible media reports indicate that there have been [sustained hurricane-force winds of at least 33 meters per second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) for one minute at 10m above the surface of some point within the city limits of New York City.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:23.932Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will \"Tesla Bots\" be available to US consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&ab_channel=Tesla) event, [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO Elon Musk [unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot,](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter) a humanoid robot. \nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\nTesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\nMusk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\nThe robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\nWhen will \"Tesla Bots\" be available to US consumers?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date on which general US consumers can take delivery from Tesla, Inc. a device having characteristics broadly in line with those of the proposed Tesla Bot. In particular, the device must be a humanoid robot, and must be able to perform some physical tasks upon being given directions to do so - a remote-controlled device manually operated by a human will not count.\nNote that this question resolves as the first date on which general consumers physically possess the device, having purchased it, leased it, licensed it, or otherwise contracted with Tesla for physical custody of it, not on the date on which a deposit can be placed, a device can be ordered, pre-ordered, or otherwise contracted for. The consumers must be legally entitled to operate the device; a right to possess but not operate the device will not count.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:29.218Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\". This question asks if there will be conflict causing 100 deaths between the two nations by the end of 2025.\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2026:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2025.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:34.571Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/nanotechnology-gc-to-cause-near-extinction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nA [recent paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170350) evaluates the opportunities and risks of atomically precise manufacturing argues that the risks might be greatest from military affairs, and specifically rogue actor violence:\nA more significant concern for military APM comes from the potential dangers of rogue actors, including rogue states such as DPRK as well as terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. Over the last two decades, rogue actors have been an increasingly prominent concern for the international community. Looking ahead, some worry that advances in certain technologies, especially biotechnology, could enable rogue actors to cause outsized harm, potentially even a major global catastrophe (e.g., Rees, 2003). APM could also enable a wider range of rogue actors to create powerful arsenals. APM could further make these arsenals smaller and thus easier to conceal. In this regard, APM could be considered similar to biotechnology. This makes for a major risk: a world in which small rogue groups can cause global harm is a fragile world to live in.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nanotechnology catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:39.729Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Belgium no longer be a united sovereign state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7796/date-of-belgium-dissolution/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Belgium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgium) is composed of 3 cultural regions: the predominately Dutch-speaking [Flemish region](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flemish_Region) in the north, the predominately French-speaking [Walloon region](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallonia) in the south, and the [Brussels capital region](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels) in the center. The separation in Belgium has resulted in [political turmoil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932011_Belgian_political_crisis) and some have suggested [partition.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_Belgium)\nWhen will Belgium no longer be a united sovereign state?\nThis question will resolve on the date that there is no longer a sovereign state with its capital within the modern day borders of Belgium that controls more than 50% of the land area of [Brussels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels), [Charleroi, Liège, Namur](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallonia#Cities), [Antwerp, Ghent, and Bruges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanders#Cities).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:45.089Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2122-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7797/lebanese-fragility-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon) has recently faced an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_liquidity_crisis). According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/world/lebanon-crisis.html), since fall 2019, the Lebanese bound has lost 90% of its value, and annual inflation in 2020 was 84.9%. The [Fragile States Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) [measures the stability of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index). In 2021, Lebanon had a score of 89.0, up by 4.3 points from 2020. A higher score signifies more instability.\nWhat will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?\nThe criteria will resolve as the score of Lebanon in the 2022 Fragile States Index, as reported on the [Fragile States Index](https://fragilestatesindex.org/) website on the resolve date, or elsewhere if it is not posted on the website. If by the resolve date the Fragile States Index data for Lebanon has not been released for whatever reason, it will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:50.930Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7798/tom-tugendhat-top-tory-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Thomas Georg John Tugendhat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tugendhat) MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the ultra-safe Tory seat of Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before entering politics, amongst other roles, Tugendhat was a Territorial Army officer in the British Army.\nIn the wake of the Fall of Kabul in August 2021, Tugendhat described the event in The Times as Britain's \"biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez\". On 18 August, in the House of Commons, Tugendhat was applauded after giving a powerful speech that drew on his own military experiences in Afghanistan. It concluded, \"This doesn't need to be defeat, but right now it damn well feels like it.\"\nThere have subsequently been [suggestions](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9915201/Of-course-want-leadership-position-Tom-Tugendhat-speaks-Europes-new-refugee-line.html) that Tugendhat may well become the leader of the UK's Conservative Party, and ultimately become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.\nWill Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Tom Tugendhat holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:24:56.087Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much sea level rise will there be in 2100, in millimeters?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7800/sea-level-rise-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Sea level rise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise) is one of the main effects associated with [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change). Some climatologists [have suggested](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRs4kIthJ9k) that it is possible for sea level to change dramatically over a relatively small period of time, on the order of decades.\nAs of January 2022, global sea levels have been increasing [at 3.3 mm per year](https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/key-indicators/global-mean-sea-level), a pace that has [accelerated since the 90s](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level). [Church, et al. 2013](https://www.jstor.org/stable/24897551) modeled sea level rise for scenarios [RCP 2.6](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway), RCP 3.4, and RCP 4.5 and gave forecasts of 440mm, 530mm, and 740mm (respectively) by 2100. A [2017 NOAA report](https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf) surveyed several projections of [RCP 8.0](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway), which is considered as a worst-case scenario, and found projections for sea level rise by 2100 as high as 2700mm.\n[NASA data from 1993 to 2021](https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/MERGED_TP_J1_OSTM_OST_GMSL_ASCII_V51?ids=&values=&search=GMSL&provider=PODAAC) has been copied [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qGNIh2-0vuGFZz4K5yguwGwG_5GxkSIFofzleXopEa4/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow much sea level rise will there be in 2100, in millimeters?\nThis question will resolve as the most recent measure of sea level on January 1, 2100 compared to the 1993-2008 average in millimeters, as reported by [NASA](https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/key-indicators/global-mean-sea-level).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:01.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-14T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7801/co2-in-atmosphere-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/) asked about CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in 2030 and [another previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/) asked for global warming by 2100. Here we ask for global CO2 concentrations in 2100.\nWhat will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2100?\nThis question will resolve on 2100-01-01 for the most recent figure for CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in ppm provided by the [US government](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) or other reliable sources, if US government data is not available.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:06.413Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-02-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/) \n---[Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\nBefore 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the 2020 figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures). A copy of this data is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y8K0IhRh_1ZVvy4mFxyhEJ7GX7FyrDqxRNkeRcLqFIg/edit?usp=sharing).\nIn the case of political or territorial changes of any nation on the list, the successor country will be identified as having the same political capitol as the parent country.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:11.757Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7804/black-republican-voters-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 2020 US presidential election, around 12 percent of self-identified blacks voted for Trump. Black conservatives seem to have been more visible and vocal recently, leading some to believe there is a non-trivial general trend within the black community towards more conservative voting.\nWhat percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves per [final exit polls of Edison Research](https://www.edisonresearch.com/election-polling/) in 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:16.913Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-03T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7806/when-airplane-travelers-mask-free-in-usa/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mask mandates have been widely introduced in response to the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic. In most places, it is mandatory to travel with masks on airplanes, either due to the carrier (airplane operator) or due to government mandates.\nWhen will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?\n---Resolves positively when government mask mandates are removed from ordinary airplane travelers (not e.g., pilots), AND at least 3 large carriers remove their mandates as well. Large carriers are those in the [Group III, of which there are 18 currently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_airlines_of_the_United_States). \n---Mandates that are removed only for vaccinated people DO NOT count for the purpose of resolution. They must be removed for any normal traveler regardless of prior disease history and vaccination status. \n---Mandates NO NOT have to be justified by COVID-19. It may be for any reason. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:22.149Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/) \n---[Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\nWill a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the most recent figures from before the beginning of the civil war from figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:27.260Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iran recognize Israel by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7808/iran-recognizing-israel/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) does not recognize [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel), and a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict) between them has continued for decades. Iranian leaders have called Israel the \"Zionist regime\", \"occupied Palestine\", and the \"little Satan\", while they refer to the United States as the \"great Satan\". Before the [Iranian Revolution of 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution), Iran and Israel [maintained close ties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Israeli_independence_to_Iranian_revolution_%281947%E2%80%9379%29).\nWill Iran recognize Israel by 2070?\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) is legally recognized by [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition.\nThe recognition can be done by the Islamic Republic of Iran or by any state that has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:32.420Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Mohammed bin Salman become the king of Saudi Arabia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7810/mbs-becomes-saudi-king/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/) asked if [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_bin_Salman) will become the next [king of Saudi Arabia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_of_Saudi_Arabia)\nWhen will Mohammed bin Salman become the king of Saudi Arabia?\nThe question will resolve to the date when (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia. It will resolve to > if he does not become king by January 1, 2050.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:37.554Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n--- \nRussia: 6,257 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUS: 5,550 nuclear warheads\n--- \nChina: 350 nuclear warheads\n--- \nFrance: 290 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUK: 225 nuclear warheads\n--- \nPakistan: 165 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIndia: 160 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIsrael: 90 nuclear warheads\n--- \nNorth Korea: Estimated 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower.\")\nHow many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves as the number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) detonated offensively in total between the opening of this question and 2050. If there are no offensive detonations before 2050 by any state or non-state actor, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one offensive detonation occurring by 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of January 1, 2055.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:42.675Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-23T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T00:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-02T00:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?\nIf there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?\nThis question resolves positively if (i) [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.\n'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.\nMilitary support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the [other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:47.997Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7813/date-ai-exceeds-humans-at-angry-birds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Angry Birds](http://chrome.angrybirds.com/) is a popular video game where the task is to shoot birds with different properties from a slingshot at a structure that houses pigs and to destroy the pigs. The structure can be very complicated and can involve a number of different object categories with different properties. The game and the structure largely observes the laws of physics and it is possible to infer how the structure will change when hit at a certain position.\nEach year at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI), an [AI Angry Birds competition](http://aibirds.org/) is held. \nThe stated goal of the competition is \nto build an intelligent Angry Birds playing agent that can play new levels better than the best human players. This is a very difficult problem as it requires agents to predict the outcome of physical actions without having complete knowledge of the world, and then to select a good action out of infinitely many possible actions. This is an essential capability of future AI systems that interact with the physical world. The Angry Birds AI competition provides a simplified and controlled environment for developing and testing these capabilities. \nWhen will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?\nThis question resolves positively when credible media reports indicate that an AI has exceeded human performance at new (that is, previously unseen to the AI) levels of Angry Birds.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:53.152Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-by-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Risks from Artificial intelligence](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/) are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilisation in the coming centuries.\nIn Toby Ord's recent book [The Precipice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity) he places the risk of human extinction due to unaligned AI this century at 10%.\nThis question asks if we will see large scale incidents leading to loss of life or damage as a result of AI developments going wrong in the next ten years.\nBy 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?\nThis question resolves positively if there are three credible media reports indicating that there has been an event precipitated by AI malfunction which caused either 100+ deaths or $1bn 2021 USD in economic damage before Jan 1st 2032.\nMultiple incidents stemming from the same source can count for resolution.\nTo count as precipitated by AI malfunction an incident should involve an AI system behaving unexpectedly. An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.\nIf, for example, the [Boeing MCAS system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System) had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution. \nAn AI system being used in warfare and causing 100+ deaths in the course of its expected behaviour is an example of something which should not count.\nA system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:25:58.333Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7816/prototype-of-tesla-bot-by-the-end-of-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's [AI Day](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M&t=359s) event, [Tesla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) CEO [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) revealed a design concept of Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot.\nDuring the event, Musk said, \"We think that we will probably have a prototype sometime next year\".\nAccording to [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633514/tesla-robot-prototype-elon-musk-humanoid-ai-day?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter),\nTesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype “sometime next year.” The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla’s experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company’s Autopilot driver assistance software.\nMusk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is “intended to be friendly,” but that Tesla is designing the robot at a “mechanical level” so that “you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it.” It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face.\nThe robots will be designed to handle “tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring,” the company’s website reads. “I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can,” Musk said.\nPredict the date of general availability in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/).\nWill Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if both of these criteria are fulfilled:\n1-- \nBefore 2023, a prototype of a humanoid robot developed by Tesla is revealed in at least one of the following:\n* A social media post by an account officially held by Tesla, Inc.\n* The official website of Tesla, Inc.\n* A live event organized by Tesla, Inc.\n* Some other event organized by Tesla, Inc where members of the public or press are invited.\n* A social media post by an account held by current Tesla CEO Elon Musk.\n2-- \nThe revealed prototype shall be able to move, and this ability must be shown during the event or in the revealed material. \nFor the purpose of this question \"a prototype of a humanoid robot\" is defined as a machine that contains at least the legs of a humanoid and/or the arms of a humanoid. The resolution criteria are indifferent toward the power source, computer and autonomy level (e.g it does not have to run on battery power, the computer may be \"outside\" the robot and a human may (electronically) control the movement of the robot).\nA written or photo update on Tesla Bot in the absence of an event, will not count toward a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:03.547Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7817/usa-place-at-imo-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO)](https://www.imo-official.org/) is the premier mathematics competition for high school students. The [United States](https://www.imo-official.org/country_info.aspx?code=USA) [has participated](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA) in the IMO 47 times. The US [won](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA&column=rank&order=asc) in 1977, 1981, 1986, 1994, 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019. The United States has been in the [top 4 continuously for the last 11 years.](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA&column=year&order=desc)\nWhat place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?\nThis question resolves to the place of the United States listed [here](https://www.imo-official.org/team_r.aspx?code=USA&year=2022) on the resolve date. If nothing is listed, it resolves ambiguous. If the IMO migrates to a different website or reformats, that will be used instead. If the USA does not place in the top 4, it will resolve to >.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:08.717Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7819/afghanistan-based-anti-nato-terrorism-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of [Al Qaeda training bases and leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks) that led to the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, there is [increased concern](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-15/concerns-over-us-terror-threats-rising-as-taliban-seizes-power-in-afghanistan) that it will be used as a base for terrorist attacks.\nWill Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event that both of the below are true, based on credible media reports: \n1--A terrorist attack that kill at least 10 people has been conducted against a NATO nation by December 31, 2026. Such an attack must occur outside of Afghanistan. \nAND\n2--This terrorist attack was carried out by: \n------A member of the Afghan Taliban, or \n------A member of any terrorist organization funded, supported, or protected by the Afghan Taliban. \n--- \nResolution will be based on credible media reports of a determination by any of the below entities: \n------The United States federal government \n------NATO \n------The European Union \n--- \nIf one or more such attacks have not been confirmed by any of the above entities, then this question will resolve negatively.\n1-- \nAn attack will be considered \"against a NATO nation\" if it occurs within a NATO nation's internationally recognized borders, or is deliberately targeted towards a NATO nation's government facilities or personnel overseas (e.g. embassy or military base) outside of Afghanistan. A terrorist attack within a non-NATO nation that is not targeted at a NATO nation's government facility or personnel (e.g. an attack on a sports stadium in India that incidentally kills >10 NATO nationals) will not be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. \n2-- \nIf the attacks result in the deaths of the attackers, such as in a suicide bombing, those deaths will not count towards the resolution criteria, even if the attackers are citizens of a NATO nation. \n3-- \nWhat counts as a \"terrorist organization\" will be determined by the US federal government, NATO, or the European Union. \n4-- \nIn the event that NATO ceases to exist by the resolution date, the question will resolve negatively if no such attack occurs prior to NATO's dissolution.\n5-- \nAny terrorist attacks that occur while the Taliban are not in control of Afghanistan will not trigger a positive resolution. The Taliban will be considered in control of Afghanistan if they control either Kabul or a majority (18+ / 34) [provincial capitals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Afghanistan). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:13.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7821/hungary-fertility-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A crucial determinant of fertility is the number of children born per woman. This question seeks to ask what this will be in Hungary for the year 2031, once data for that is available.\nWhat will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?\nResolves as whatever the World Bank [reports](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=HU) as Hungary's \"total birth per woman\" for the year 2031.\nIf the World Bank ceases to exist or report on Hungary's total births per woman that year, then the mods can do a simple search to see if the same metric is being published by a respected institution, and just use that number. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:19.158Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-05-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-08-08T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election), such that betting markets still [placed nontrivial probabilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5) on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.\nThis question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.\nWill the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?\nThis question resolves positively if the US President inaugurated in 2025 is from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of the following news desks: ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:24.866Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7829/us-state-to-overturn-election-result-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/) \nIn US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results by the Safe Harbor deadline, which is the date 6 days prior to the meeting of the electoral college, when the president is officially elected.\nIn 2020, there were numerous efforts at the state level in a number of states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, to change the result from the result projected by major news organisations, often alleging that voter fraud had resulted in Joe Biden's victory. None of these were ultimately successful.\nIn the 2024 US Presidential election, will any US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?\nThis question resolves positively if any US state (including DC and districts of states) officially submits results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline (currently, December 10th, 2024) that are different from the projected winner of that state according to at least 6 of the following news desks: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, and the NYT.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:30.022Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7831/us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results.\nIn 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2024 or 2025, a case relating to the 2024 US Presidential Election is heard and decided by the US Supreme Court which, if decided differently, would lead to different individuals being made US president. \nThis should exclude cases being brought before the Supreme Court which are unrelated to the 2024 election, for example a case related to impeachment of a president, or a case related to the invocation of the 25th amendment.\nAt least three credible media reports from different sources should be used to determine if deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:35.200Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7832/3-us-code--15-objections-to-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).\nIf there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.\nIn 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.\nThis question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.\nIn January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?\nThis question resolves positively if enough states are debated under 3 US Code § 15 after the 2024 US Presidential Election such that some combination of these states' electoral votes being flipped to another candidate would change the outcome of the election.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:40.424Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7834/us-happiness-ranking-from-2020-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [World Happiness Report](https://worldhappiness.report/) is produced by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, providing a yearly global survey of and report on the happiness levels of 156 countries.\nPart of the report is a ranking of happiness, based on the [Gallup Global Happiness Center](https://www.gallup.com/analytics/349487/gallup-global-happiness-center.aspx)'s life evaluations where respondents are asked to rank their life on a ladder of 1-10 where 1 is the worst possible life for them and 10 is the best possible life for them. This ranking of happiness is averaged over the three years prior to the report, which is published in yearly in March.\nThe past rankings of the US have been 19th in 2018-2020, 18th in 2017-2019, 19th in 2016-2018, 18th in 2015-2017, 14th in 2014-2016, 13th in 2013-2015, 15th in 2012-2014, and 17th in 2010-2012.\nHow will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022\nThis will resolve at the rank of the United States in the Ranking of happiness 2020-2022, published in the World Happiness Report 2023.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:45.550Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7835/self-driving-taxis-in-germany/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Self-driving cars are on the way, but how soon? Germany is the most populous country in Europe and a large car market. It is also known for having very strict regulations on many things, thus potentially postponing an introduction of self-driving cars even when they are technologically ready.\nOne use of self-driving cars will be to automate taxi services, i.e., taxis without a human driver. This would be an Uber-like ride service where one can order a car to come pick one up from A to B. [Such a service is currently being tested with a human driver by Waymo in San Francisco USA.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-24/waymo-brings-self-driving-taxis-to-san-francisco-with-a-catch)\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?\n---A legal app is available for public use that summons a taxi car without a human driver that takes one to the desired destination. \n---This must be available in one of the five largest Germany cities: Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, and Frankfurt am Main. \n---The service must not require the user to have a driver's license. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:50.701Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-08-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the Delhi high court in India ordered Sci-Hub to stop publishing new articles at the end of last year, Sci-Hub hasn't added new articles. ([about the order](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-hc-asks-libgen-sci-hub-to-stop-uploading-articles-as-they-face-copyright-infringement-charges/story-cRWCB1sGs1yMqR3TCpuvmL.html), [Reddit thread with updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/scihub/comments/lofj0r/announcement_scihub_has_been_paused_no_new/)).\nWill SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?\nIf Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers to its database at any point in 2023, this question will resolve positively.\nIf another organisation widely reported to have involvement from Alexandra Elbakyan providing a similar service (as judged by Metaculus mods) to Sci-Hub exists and is uploading new papers, this should still resolve positively. \nOtherwise it should resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:26:56.007Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/) asked if the United States would rejoin the JCPOA, informally known as the [Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) before 2022. Trump [withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal. Biden [has expressed interest](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) in returning to the deal.\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2023-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2023-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:01.196Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7841/non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of India is a member of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party). The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations.\nWill there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if before 2031-01-01, an Indian Prime Minister takes office who is not a member of the BJP, or if the acting Prime Minister changes membership to another party.\n[EIDT] Sylvain 2021-09-02: reversed the title, which was the opposite of the resolution criteria.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:06.474Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7842/avatar-2-box-office/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "James Cameron wrote, directed and produced Terminator 2, the [highest grossing movie of 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_in_film), as well as Avatar and Titanic, the [second and third highest grossing movies of all time adjusted for inflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films) (both of which were [expected to flop](https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/77344/6-blockbuster-movies-were-expected-flop)).\nAvatar 2 was [originally announced for a 2014 release but has been delayed 8 times](https://james-camerons-avatar.fandom.com/wiki/Avatar_2), most recently announcing a December 2022 release. Many people expect it do well, but there are [significant doubts](https://screenrant.com/avatar-2-3d-bad-first-movie-success-struggle/) based on the 12 year gap between it and the original as well as the lack of the 3D craze that was peaking in 2009.\nDetails of the script remain unknown but it will have many underwater scenes, and [new technology had to be developed](https://screenrant.com/vatar-2-sequels-james-cameron-new-tech-underwater-mocap/) for underwater motion-capture.\nWhat will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2 in the 12 months after its release?\nWe ask what will the total worldwide box office gross in USD be for all releases of Avatar 2 in the 12 months after its release, according to [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1630029/).\nIf Box Office Mojo stops existing, then [Wikipedia's estimate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar_2) will be used.\nIf Avatar 2 receives a new title, the question should change to reflect the new title.\nThe question should close a day before the movie releases, so if the movie is delayed both the closing and resolve dates should change.\nIf the movie is cancelled the question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:11.687Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-16T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-17T02:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7849/2024-us-house-midterm-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:16.808Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-04T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7850/the-gop-controls-the-us-senate-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2024 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\nFor reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/107th_United_States_Congress) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:21.965Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7857/us-census-shows-population-decline-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [United States Census](https://www.census.gov/) takes a census every 10 years. In the [most recent census in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census), the US population had grown by 7.4% in the past decade. This is contrast to [some developed nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate) whose populations are declining, though [population growth in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States) has slowed and the 7.4% is one of the lowest-ever decade-on-decade growth rates ever recorded. Recently, [US fertility has hit record lows](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/22/u-s-fertility-rate-explained/) though it is still not as low as [countries like Japan, Italy, Spain, and South Korea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate) [Immigration to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States) is a significant source of population growth, especially in contrast with countries like Japan.\nWill a US Census in 2070 or earlier show a decline in population?\nThis question will resolve if a Census conducted before 2071 shows a drop in US population over the previous Census, according to [official statistics from the United States Census Bureau.](https://www.census.gov/) If the Census Bureau changes its name or merges into another entity, those statistics will be used instead.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:32.988Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2076-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7858/south-african-fragility-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7531/south-africa-gdp-per-capita-in-2030/) asked about South African GDP by 2030. [Another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7797/lebanese-fragility-in-2022/) asked about Lebanese [Fragile States Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) [score](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index) in 2022, which is an index that measures the stability of countries. [Multiple](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-07-13-a-race-war-looms-if-the-government-cant-get-the-looting-under-control/) [sources](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/7/13/violent-protests-deal-body-blow-to-south-africas-economy) expressed concern for the South African economy in the wake of [unrest in 2021.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_South_African_unrest)\nSouth Africa's [Fragile States Index Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index) is 70.0 as of 2021, a slight decline from 2020.\nWhat will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?\nThe criteria will resolve as the score of South Africa in the 2022 Fragile States Index, as reported on the [Fragile States Index website](https://fragilestatesindex.org/) on the resolve date, or elsewhere if it is not posted on the website. If by the resolve date the Fragile States Index data for South Africa has not been released for whatever reason, it will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:38.157Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-04T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally.\nWill Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Turkish government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:43.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7860/pakistan-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). Historically, Pakistan has had [close ties with the Taliban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Pakistan) and helped to [create it](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/27/1031809296/pakistan-helped-create-the-taliban-heres-what-it-means-for-the-country-now).\nWill Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Pakistani government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:48.479Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7861/china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban.\nWill China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 2030-01-01, reliable media sources report that the Chinese government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:53.642Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7862/sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).\nBankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).\nThis question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?\nThis resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.\nDonations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.\nIf Bankman-Fried is the primary funder of a grantmaking organisation but not the sole funder, the amount granted for the purpose of this qustion should be the best available estimate of what fraction of funding he provides, multiplied by the amount granted. \nIf he funds such an organisation with a spouse (i.e. similar to Bill and Melinda Gates' Foundation, or Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna's Good Ventures), then their combined contribution should be counted for the purpose of this question.\nIf some combination of the above options sums to $1bn, without double counting the donation and regranting of the same funds, then this should resolve positively. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:27:58.845Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7871/female-fields-medalist-at-icm-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Fields Medal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fields_Medal) is given our every four years, and will next be awarded at the 2022 [International Congress of Mathematicians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Congress_of_Mathematicians). In 2014, the late [Maryam Mirzakhani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryam_Mirzakhani) became the first female Fields Medalist. [Maryna Viazovska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryna_Viazovska) is a prominent female mathematician, and is eligible to win the Fields Medal in 2022.\nWill there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?\nThis question resolve to yes if reliable media reports indicate that a woman won the Fields Medal at the 2022 International Congress of Mathematicians.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:03.977Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.\nWill the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the United States of America has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:09.126Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Afghanistan allow same-sex marriage?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7873/legality-of-same-sex-marriage-in-afghanistan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The return of the Taliban is a serious threat to civil rights in Afghanistan, and LGBT+ people will be particularly at risk. However, the 21st Century has eighty years left to run. What will it hold for liberalism and human rights in Afghanistan? \nSame-sex relations are currently illegal in Afghanistan, and while the death penalty is not (or was not) enforced it legally remains an option ([ILAN](https://ilga.org/maps-sexual-orientation-laws), [HRW](http://internap.hrw.org/features/features/lgbt_laws/)). \nThe Constitution of Afghanistan gives preeminence to Sharia law, which in practice serves to limit same-sex relationships even in the absence of particular legal provisions. However, recognition of Sharia law (beyond just personal status issues) does not necessarily prohibit decriminalisation of same-sex activity, with Iraq as a (rare) example of a country with de facto decriminalisation of same-sex activity despite Sharia. \nAs of 2021, same-sex marriage is legal in at least some jurisdictions in 29 countries, up from zero in 2000. \nWhile decriminalisation of homosexuality obviously remains a more pressing issue than same-sex marriage, social reforms can move quickly. South Africa decriminalised same-sex activities in 1998 and legalised same-sex marriage eight years later. Decriminalisation across the United States came about 12 years before the legalisation of same-sex marriage.\nWhen will Afghanistan allow same-sex marriage?\nQuestion resolves positive on the day that marriages can take place within Afghanistan between people of the same sex. \nResolves positive even if the law only applies in parts of the country (e.g. particular jurisdictions) or to particular classes of people (e.g. non-Muslims only). \nRecognition of marriages performed elsewhere is not sufficient. \nChanges to Afghanistan's borders will not affect resolution of this question, but if the state of Afghanistan ceases to exist in any meaningful sense, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:14.326Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US implement a national carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7877/date-us-passes-national-carbon-pricing-bill/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An [overwhelming majority](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-tax/) of economists [endorse carbon pricing mechanisms](http://%28https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/carbon-taxes-ii/%29) as effective ways to [reduce the amount of global greenhouse gases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change). [A petition of 2,500 economists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economists%27_Statement_on_Climate_Change) (including 19 Nobel laureates) advocated for carbon pricing in 1997, prior to the [Kyoto Protocol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol) negotiations. \nCarbon pricing mostly comes in 2 major categories: carbon taxes and emissions trading markets (also known as \"cap-and-trade\" policies). [Carbon taxes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax) generally set a standard price on CO2 (and other greenhouse gases), and charge corporations at the point they've produced those emissions, which in turn raises the prices of their products. [Emissions trading markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading) (cap-and-trade) set a fixed number of permits allowing a producer to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gas. A producer can reduce their emissions and sell their extra permits, or purchase permits from other companies if they want to emit more greenhouse gasses. In the long term, emissions can be further cut by increasing the price of the carbon tax, or reducing the number of carbon permits allowed in the market.\nEither of these mechanisms would result in high-emissions goods becoming more expensive, and create a market incentive for low-emissions products to be sold or invented. Carbon taxes would also create government revenue-- at a rate of $51- $125 [per ton of CO2](https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/02/26/biden-cost-climate-change/), that could produce $270 - 660 billion annually (based on [2017 US emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-states?country=~USA)). However, regardless of how this money is used (given back to citizens as a [dividend](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_fee_and_dividend), or to fund government expenses), the result would still have the effect of [reducing demand for high-emissions goods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigovian_tax).\nThough there is currently no national carbon pricing policy in the US, some states have adopted cap-and-trade policies, such as the [RGGI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Greenhouse_Gas_Initiative) in the northeast, and the [WCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Climate_Initiative) in California. [Bills to implement carbon pricing](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/what-you-need-know-about-federal-carbon-tax-united-states) have been proposed several times in Congress.\nWhen will the US implement a national carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism?\nThis question will resolve on the date that a national carbon tax or emissions trading policy is signed into law. In the event that a bill is approved by the House, Senate, and President, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the bill is approved by the chamber which proposed it.\nResolution will use an official government source or credible media reports.\nTo resolve the question, the tax must collect some amount of tax revenue, or some permits must be issued/traded in an emissions market. eg. if such a bill is passed and then blocked, repealed, or not enforced, this will not resolve the question. The pricing mechanism must have a non-zero price, but there is no minimum value required (a tax of $0.01 per ton of carbon would qualify).\nIf a bill is passed which includes some exemptions or does not cover all major carbon producing industries, this question will resolve if that bill covers 66% of the US' total carbon output. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:19.448Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we know whether the Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle is equal to the Theta function of the 7-cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7878/date-capacity-vs-theta-for-7-cycle-is-known/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Determining the [Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_capacity_of_a_graph#Computational_complexity) is a famous [open problem](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/shannon_capacity_of_the_seven_cycle) in mathematics and [computer science](https://rjlipton.wpcomstaging.com/2013/07/10/rough-problems/). The best known upper bound for is , the value of the [Lovász theta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lov%C3%A1sz_number). This is given by a [semidefinite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semidefinite_programming) and is similar to some upper bounds for sphere packing.\nWhen will we know whether the Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle is equal to the Theta function of the 7-cycle?\nThis question will resolve positively on the date of publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving or disproving . If there is no such proof by 2122-01-01, the question will resolve as >. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2122-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:24.636Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-09T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2122-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a proof (or disproof) that P=BPP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7879/date-of-proofdisproof-of-pbpp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_%28complexity%29). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.\nWhen will there be a proof (or disproof) that P=BPP?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving or disproving that P=BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review within the input range, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:30.340Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-13T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2122-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will someone first be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7880/first-extraterrestrial-murder/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Public and private entities have been making advances in efforts to expand humanity's presence in space and establish colonies on other planets. Additionally, humans already have had an extended presence in space through the [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station). What future governments and jurisdictions may look like in space and on other planets remains unclear.\nWhen will someone first be convicted for a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere?\nThis question resolves as the date a human is first convicted of murder for killing another human while outside of Earth's Karman line. The location of the conviction itself is immaterial, a murder that takes place in space but where the legal proceedings occur on Earth would qualify. For the purposes of this question murder will be defined as an intentional killing, either premeditated or in the heat of the moment, commonly referred to as [first or second degree murder](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/what-are-the-different-types-of-criminal-homicide-30970). If terminology or legal classifications having to do with murder change the admins will use their judgement to determine if the conviction meets the definition of first or second degree murder at the time this question was authored. Homicide as part of a recognized military action is typically not punishable in a court of law and would not qualify for the purposes of this question.\nBoth the murderer and the victim must be above the Karman line at the time of the murder to qualify. If a violent attack occurs above the Karman line but the victim later dies on Earth it still qualifies so long as all of the violence inflicted by the perpetrator occurred above the Karman line.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in case the murder involves a Metaculus user.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:35.584Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-09-02T02:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-09-02T02:31:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7881/critical-conflicts-for-us-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Council for Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/) (CFR) defines a conflict as a critical impact on U.S. interests when the conflict directly threatens the U.S. homeland, is likely to trigger U.S. military involvement, or threatens the supply of critical U.S. strategic resources.\nCurrently (last updated September 1, 2021), the CFR classifies [5 conflicts as critical](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/?category=us).\n---War in Afghanistan \n---Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea \n---Tensions in the East China Sea \n---North Korea Crisis \n---Confrontations Between the United States and Iran \nThese 5 critical conflicts can be tracked using the CFR's [Global Conflict Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/?category=us). Set view by to \"Impact on U.S. Interests\" and then look for Critical conflicts, which are circular and highlighted the darkest shade of red, on the map.\nWhat will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?\nThis question resolves as the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests, as given by the CFR's Global Conflict Tracker, on January 3rd, 2023, at 12:00 AM.\nIf the CFR Global Conflict Tracker is unavailable for use at the time of resolution, for any reason, then the resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:40.717Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7882/will-americans-care-about-space-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity’s long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\nDespite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world’s largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\".\nBy 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?\nThis question resolves positively if before Jan 1, 2030, Gallup announces a poll, as part of its “[Most Important Problem](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)” series, showing that 1% of Americans responded with an answer referring to space or space governance.\nAnswers to the Gallup poll which refer to space or space governance include:\n---Any answer which refers to an aerospace organization, program or object, such as “NASA” or “Sputnik”. \n---Any answer which directly refers to something related to space governance. This does not include indirect references, such as “foreign policy” (even if space governance is at the time an important part of foreign policy). This is to be decided by Metaculus moderators. \nIf the Gallup poll is discontinued the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:45.884Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the LDP lose its status as largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7884/ldp-losing-largest-party-status-in-japan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_%28Japan%29), or LDP for short, is a conservative party in Japanese politics. Since its foundation in 1955, it has dominated Japanese politics, and has been the largest party in the [House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_of_Japan) with the exception of a period from 2009 to 2013.\nWhen will the LDP lose its status as largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan?\nThis revolves as the date when the Liberal Democratic Party stops being the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan.\nIf this does not occur before 31 Dec 2049, then this resolves to > 31 Dec 2049.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:51.010Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nAs of 2 September 2021, articles published on the Wiki comprise a total of 111,000 words of content. Some of this content (perhaps one third of it) was imported from [Effective Altruism Concepts](https://concepts.effectivealtruism.org/), a precursor to the Wiki created in 2017 which is no longer active. A fraction of the remaining content (perhaps one half of it) was written by Pablo over a six-month period preceding the launch of the Wiki. The rest was created since the Wiki launched, by both paid and volunteer contributors.\n--\nThis is the first in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--How many words of content will have been published? \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--[Will the Wiki be \"alive\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/) \nBy 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?\nThe question will resolve by summing the word counts of the most recent version of each article published on the EA Wiki on 2023-01-01 00:00:00 GMT. An exhaustive list of all published articles may be found under the heading \"all entries\" [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all). \nComments won't be included in the word count.\nIf the Wiki is no longer hosted on the EA Forum but is hosted elsewhere, the word count will be computed from the articles as they exist in this other host. If the Wiki is not hosted anywhere, the word count will be computed from the most recently hosted version.\nObvious acts of vandalism to manipulate the word count (by e.g. blanking entries just before the resolution date) will be reverted and will not impact the resolution value. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:28:56.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nCurrently, EA Wiki page views account for around 5% of all EA Forum page views, according to Google Analytics.\n--\nThis is the second in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic? \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--[Will the Wiki be \"alive\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/) \nBy 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?\nThe question will resolve according to Google Analytics data, dividing EA Wiki page views by EA Forum page views for the calendar month immediately preceding the resolution date (i.e. December 2022). EA Wiki page views will be calculated by filtering for pages that include /tag/ as part of their URL. EA Forum page views will be calculated by filtering for pages on the forum subdomain of effectivealtruism.org.\nIf the canonical URL of either the EA Wiki or the EA Forum changes, the relevant adjustments will be made, as long as it is sufficiently clear whether a given page is or isn't part of the EA Wiki and/or the EA Forum. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:01.311Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nCurrently, the Wiki is written by both paid and volunteer contributors. The average fraction of content written by volunteers so far is around 15%, based on visual inspection of a random sample of 50 Wiki articles.\n--\nThis is the first in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors? \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--[Will the Wiki be \"alive\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/) \nBy 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?\nThe question will resolve by an estimate of the fraction of words of content contributed by anyone other than [Pablo](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/pablo_stafforini), [Leo](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/ea-wiki-assistant), and [Aaron](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/aarongertler). The estimation will be performed by clicking on the [\"random tag\" button](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/random) (found on the sidebar of every Wiki entry), counting the lines with a majority of words contributed by users other than the three listed above, and then counting the total number of lines in the article. The process will be repeated fifty times, and the resolution value will be the result of dividing the first count by the second count at the end of the process.\nIf the \"random tag\" button does not exist, a suitable alternative randomizing procedure will be adopted. Note that the sampling is with replacement, i.e. the same article may be selected more than once.\nThe counting will be done on the most recent version of the article at the time of resolution.\nIf other people besides Pablo, Leo and Aaron are paid to contribute to the Wiki, their contributions will also be excluded. Contributions by Pablo, Leo and Aaron, as well as by these other people, will be excluded even if they are no longer being paid to contribute content at the time of resolution. In other words, for the purposes of resolving this question, a user is considered to be a paid contributor if they were paid to contribute content at any point between the opening of the question and its resolution. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:06.433Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nThe LessWrong Wiki has existed since April 2009. After a period of very low activity, it was [relaunched](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELN6FpRLoeLJPgx8z/the-wiki-is-dead-long-live-the-wiki-help-wanted) in September 2020.\nAs of 2 September 2021, around 111,000 words have been published on the EA Wiki and around 103,000 words have been published on the LessWrong Wiki.\n--\nThis is the fourth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki? \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--[Will the Wiki be \"alive\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/) \nBy 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?\nThe question will resolve by dividing the growth rate of the EA Wiki between 2 September 2021 and 1 January 2023, and dividing this figure by the LW Wiki growth rate over the same period. Growth will be measured in number of words, calculated according to the same methodology for both wikis and in the same manner as done for [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:11.584Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the first of these failure modes; for the second type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/).\n--\nThis is the fifth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--What will be the quality of the best articles? \n6--[Will the Wiki be \"alive\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/) \nBy 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?\nTo resolve this question, Pablo will select what are, in his opinion, the three highest quality articles, and willing Metaculus admins or moderators (other than Pablo) will select three people whom they consider suitable for evaluating the quality of those articles. The evaluators will each rate each of the three chosen articles on a continuous scale ranging from 1 to 5, with 1 representing \"very bad\" and 5 representing \"very good\". The resolution value will be the simple average of these nine ratings.\nThe admins or moderators are free to choose anyone they deem suitable for the task, provided that the chosen evaluators have a reasonable degree of familiarity with EA content and report having no conflicts of interest with the Wiki or any of its paid contributors. \nThe admins or moderators will not disclose the names of the evaluators nor their individual ratings to anyone (including all paid Wiki editors), and will ask the evaluators not to disclose this information either. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:16.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7892/ea-wiki-alive-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Effective Altruism Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tags/all) is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/). It was [launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/X6SyxmhYEo4SofyAL/our-plans-for-hosting-an-ea-wiki-on-the-forum) in March 2021.\nProjects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—[appear](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zAEC8BuLYdKmH54t7/ea-infrastructure-fund-may-2021-grant-recommendations#Pablo_Stafforini__EA_Forum_Wiki___34_200_) to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/).\n--\nThis is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.\n1--[How many words of content will have been published?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) \n2--[What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/) \n3--[What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7888/ea-wiki-fraction-written-by-volunteers/) \n4--[How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/) \n5--[What will be the quality of the best articles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7890/ea-wiki-quality-of-best-articles/) \n6--Will the Wiki be \"alive\"? \nBy 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be \"alive\"?\nThe question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/) (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:21.853Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7897/us-happiness-ranking-from-2022-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [World Happiness Report](https://worldhappiness.report/) is produced by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, providing a yearly global survey of and report on the happiness levels of 156 countries.\nPart of the report is a ranking of happiness, based on the [Gallup Global Happiness Center](https://www.gallup.com/analytics/349487/gallup-global-happiness-center.aspx)'s life evaluations where respondents are asked to rank their life on a ladder of 1-10 where 1 is the worst possible life for them and 10 is the best possible life for them. This ranking of happiness is averaged over the three years prior to the report, which is published in yearly in March.\nThe past rankings of the US have been 19th in 2018-2020, 18th in 2017-2019, 19th in 2016-2018, 18th in 2015-2017, 14th in 2014-2016, 13th in 2013-2015, 15th in 2012-2014, and 17th in 2010-2012.\nHow will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?\nThis will resolve at the rank of the United States in the Ranking of happiness 2022-2024, published in the World Happiness Report 2025.\nA similar question for the World Happiness Report results for 2020-22 is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7834/us-happiness-ranking-from-2020-2022/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:26.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Tether (USDT) breaks its peg with the U.S. dollar by 2025, when would this happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7901/run-on-tethers-usdt-stablecoin/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "So called stablecoins are pegged to fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar. Issuers of stablecoins operate therefore as unregulated quasi-money market funds (MMFs). In contrast to regulated entities such as MMFs, stablecoin issuers often give little to no insight into their reserves.\n[Tether Limited](https://tether.to/) is the issuer of the [largest stablecoin](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/decentralized-finance/stablecoins/total-stablecoin-supply-daily), USDT, with a market capitalization of [around US$65 billion](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/decentralized-finance/stablecoins/usdt-supply-by-blockchain-daily). Tether is infamous for its controversial business dealings, including but not limited to losing US$851 million of customer deposits at sister company Bitfinex with Panama-based Crypto Capital Corp. Consequently, [US$625 million](https://www.ft.com/content/75daa4c5-8d26-35e9-bd3e-21e8430a3068) were drawn from Tether's reserves without disclosure to their customers. \nTether's backing [remains questionable to this day](https://www.ft.com/content/342966af-98dc-4b48-b997-38c00804270a); with the majority of reserves supposedly held in commercial paper with unknown credit risk.\nImportantly, stablecoins ([and specifically USDT](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/decentralized-finance/stablecoins/adjusted-on-chain-volume-of-stablecoins-monthly)) provide the majority of liquidity to the crypto ecosystem; hence a run on Tether could lead to substantial volatility in the crypto markets.\nIf Tether (USDT) breaks its peg with the U.S. dollar by 2025, when would this happen?\nThe question resolves as the date by which USDT has been trading below US$0.9 for at least 12 hours on at least 2 of the following crypto exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, FTX or Bitfinex.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if USDT does not break its peg before the resolution date or the mentioned exchanges cease to exist and/or do not trade USDT/USD.\nAll data as of 2021-08-03. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:32.080Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7908/how-many-flights-will-ingenuity-make/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Inspired by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7782/date-ingenuity-ceases-flights-for-6-months/) which is open at the time of writing, we wonder how many flights [Ingenuity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingenuity_%28helicopter%29) will make overall.\nHow many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?\nResolves as the number of flights listed in the [official NASA flight log](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/#Flight-Log) upon one of the following conditions being met:\n--Ingenuity is credibly declared by NASA to be destroyed or inoperable with no chance of repair or recovery. Resolves after 3 months without retraction.\n--Ingenuity is credibly declared by NASA to be abandoned for any other reason. Resolves after 12 months without retraction.\nUpper boundary is open in the fortuitous eventuality that Ingenuity makes more than 300 flights.\nIn the event that NASA is no longer in control of Ingenuity, any successor organization's announcements may substitute. In the event that the Flight Log is unavailable or supplanted, the next most credible source available will be used, including if necessary the latest archived version of the Flight Log.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:42.420Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T19:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7910/active-volcanos-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As defined on Wikipedia, a [volcano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano) is a rupture in the crust of a planetary-mass object, such as Earth, that allows hot lava, volcanic ash, and gases to escape from a magma chamber below the surface.\nIn particular, an [active volcano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_volcano) is a volcano which is either erupting or is likely to erupt in the future. There are many active volcanos on Earth today, and historical activity data can be found [here](https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear).\nWhat will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of volcanos active on the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program's [eruption data sheet](https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) on January 1st, 2023, at 12:00am UTC-5.\nShould the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program's measurement of volcanos active be unavailable, for any reason, then the resolution of this question will be decided by the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:47.583Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In how many of the 50 US states will it be legal to use psilocybin for therapy by December the 31st 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7911/psilocybin-as-a-new-drug-therapy-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Improving mental health seems like one of the most direct ways of making people better off, and there appear to be many promising areas for reform — especially with regard to new [drug therapies](https://maps.org/). \nOne of the new possible drug therapies focuses on the use of psilocybin. Studies suggest substantial rapid and enduring antidepressant effects of psilocybin-assisted therapy among patients with [major depressive disorder](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2772630).\nThe Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted psilocybin breakthrough therapy designation. In November 2020, the state of Oregon became the first U.S. state to both decriminalize psilocybin and also legalize it for therapeutic use.\nIn how many of the 50 US states will it be legal to use psilocybin for therapy by December 31, 2025?\nTerritories and Washington D.C. are not considered a state for the purpose of this question. Decriminalization of psilocybin is not considered the same as its approval for medical use.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:52.762Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:29:58.470Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:03.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the median forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:08.874Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 100 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 100 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:14.008Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 300 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 300 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:19.135Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jsevillamol [suggests](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds) using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.\nMetaculus does not currently uses the mean forecast (although it is displayed on the website). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the average forecast.\nThis question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.\nWill mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?\nUsing the public Metaculus api (assuming it still exists) we will take the average forecast from the weighted community forecast and the average log-odds forecast from the weighted community and use a logarithmic scoring rule to determine which method has the better performance. \nThe set of questions used will be the next 1000 binary questions to resolve, which close after this question opens.\nIf the metaculus api no longer exists, this question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7917/mean-vs-median-log-odds-100-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7918/mean-vs-median-log-odds-300-questions/) \n---[Mean vs Median Log-Odds 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7919/mean-vs-median-log-odds-1000-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7920/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-100-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 300](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7921/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-300-questions/) \n---[Mean Log-odds vs Mean probability 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7922/mean-log-odds-vs-probability-1000-questions/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:24.246Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.\nWill most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?\nThis question resolves positively if more than 50 of the first 100 babies who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence are born in the People's Republic of China, according to credible reports. If 100 such babies are not born by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question to resolve positively, it must be the case that the polygenetic selection is done in part for the purpose of increasing the expected intelligence; incidental effects on expected intelligence arising from polygenetic selection or screening for non-intelligence-related traits should not trigger positive resoltion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:29.509Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7930/space-traveler-fatality-rate-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "2021 has seen the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's \"Inspiration 4\" mission. Professional astronauts travelling to and living on the ISS and Tiangong also continues as usual. The purpose of this question is to characterize the near-term risk of flying to space for all space travelers.\nWhat will be the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies in the 2020's?\nDeaths must be on a vehicle that is designed to travel above 50 miles (80.5 km) in altitude, or otherwise occur above 50 miles, meeting the US DoD criteria for astronaut wings. As of the writing of this question this includes anything already in or which reaches orbit, spacewalks, as well as both the New Shepherd and SpaceShipTwo suborbital vehicles. Deaths must be on routine flights, and not during development, training, or testing. To date, Wikipedia's [List of spaceflight-related accidents and injuries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) tallies 19 deaths during spaceflight after excluding deaths during training and testing, which are the only deaths on that page which would meet the intent of this question.\nDeaths must also be of (actual or potential) space travelers who are on the vehicle, and not surrounding people. Accidents on supporting infrastructure does not count, unless that accident causes an event on the vehicle which then itself causes fatalities. For example, a fire on a launch pad would not count, that fire causing the vehicle to explode and kill pad workers or observing astronauts would also not, but that vehicle explosion killing people in the capsule would. Deaths on the ground due to falling debris also would not count.\nThe fatality rate will be determined by dividing the number of spaceflight fatalities by the number of space travelers between the dates of 2020-01-01 and 2029-12-31. The total number of space travelers will be determined by summing the number of US DoD-qualified people on [List of space travelers by name](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) and [Commercial astronaut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_astronaut), and subtracting the 574 people on the [2019-12-31 edit](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_space_travelers_by_name&oldid=933739120) of the first page. As of 2021-09-09 this stands at 587 + 7 - 574 = 20. The number of fatalities will be determined from the \"Astronaut fatalities: During Spaceflight\" section of [List of spaceflight-related accidents and injuries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) page, excluding training and testing, with dates in the 2020's. Names must have been on either list for three months in the event of editing controversies. Comparable pages will be used if those are not available at the time of resolution, or do not meet the intent of this question. \nAs of the writing of this question, the fatality rate in the 2020's is 0%, and prior to 2020 is 19/574 = 3.3%.\nThe resolution criteria is on a per-person basis, so an astronaut who takes multiple flights would not count multiple times. Astronauts who first flew before 2020 and take another flight in the future would also be excluded from the total number of space travelers under the resolution criteria, though their death would count. \nAcute injuries which lead to death on the ground within a month will count as deaths.\nDeaths due to health conditions not caused by an anomaly (excitement-induced heart attacks, for example) will not count for the purposes of this question.\nIn-space homocides, deaths due to sabotage, or other intentional deaths will not count for the purposes of this question.\n\"Space traveler\" is used as a general term and is meant to encompass professional astronauts/cosmonauts, tourists, etc.\nMake predictions in percents. A fatality rate of 1% would correspond to a prediction of 1, not 0.01. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:34.687Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of US electricity will be produced by solar power in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7932/percentage-of-us-solar-energy-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Biden Administration recently [published a study](https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-futures-study) laying out scenarios to increase solar energy production to transition to a carbon-free electrical grid. One scenario found that the US could produce [45% of energy consumed in 2030](https://nyti.ms/3kcFtbi)\nWhat percent of US electricity will be produced by solar power in 2030?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of the electricity consumed in the United States that is produced by solar power in 2030, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~USA&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Solar&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Share+of+total). If Our World In Data does not publish this data for 2030, the closest comparable source will be used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:39.889Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/minimum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2023?\nThis question resolves based on the minimum sea ice extent in 2023. Typically the minimum extent in any given year is achieved during February. This question will resolve in mid-March, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the minimum sea ice extent in millions of km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:45.063Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/minimum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?\nThis question resolves based on the minimum sea ice extent in 2025. Typically the minimum extent in any given year is achieved during February. This question will resolve in mid-March, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the minimum sea ice extent in millions of km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:50.206Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-03-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/minimum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?\nThis question resolves based on the minimum sea ice extent in 2030. Typically the minimum extent in any given year is achieved during February. This question will resolve in mid-March, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the minimum sea ice extent in millions of km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:30:55.341Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-24T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/maximum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
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- "title": "What will be the maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/maximum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/",
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- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?\nThis question resolves based on the maximum sea ice extent in 2025. Typically the maximum extent in any given year is achieved during September. This question will resolve in mid-October, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the maximum sea ice extent in millions of km^2\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
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- "title": "What will be the maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/maximum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/",
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- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?\nThis question resolves based on the maximum sea ice extent in 2030. Typically the maximum extent in any given year is achieved during September. This question will resolve in mid-October, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the maximum sea ice extent in millions of km^2\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
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- "title": "What will be the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2023?\nThis question resolves based on the maximum sea ice extent in 2023. Typically the maximum extent in any given year is achieved during March. This question will resolve in mid-April, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the maximum sea ice extent in km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
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- "title": "What will be the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?\nThis question resolves based on the maximum sea ice extent in 2025. Typically the maximum extent in any given year is achieved during March. This question will resolve in mid-April, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the maximum sea ice extent in km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
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- "title": "What will be the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/",
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- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?\nThis question resolves based on the maximum sea ice extent in 2030. Typically the maximum extent in any given year is achieved during March. This question will resolve in mid-April, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the maximum sea ice extent in km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
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- "title": "What will be the minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2023?\nThis question resolves based on the minimum sea ice extent in 2023. Typically the minimum extent in any given year is achieved during September. This question will resolve in mid-October, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the minimum sea ice extent in millions of km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
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- "title": "What will be the minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2025?\nThis question resolves based on the minimum sea ice extent in 2025. Typically the minimum extent in any given year is achieved during September. This question will resolve in mid-October, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the minimum sea ice extent in millions of km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
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- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sea ice cover is one of the key components of the polar climate system. It has been a focus of attention in recent years, largely because of a strong decrease in the Arctic sea ice cover and modeling results that indicate that global warming could be amplified in the Arctic on account of ice-albedo feedback. This results from the high reflectivity (albedo) of the sea ice compared to ice-free waters. A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing although at a lesser rate than the decreases in the Arctic. \nSea ice concentration is the percent areal coverage of ice within the data element (grid cell). Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration. \n[Source](https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/current-state-sea-ice-cover)\nWhat will be the minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?\nThis question resolves based on the minimum sea ice extent in 2030. Typically the minimum extent in any given year is achieved during September. This question will resolve in mid-October, but if it seems likely to achieve a larger sea-ice extent it can be re-resolved at any point at the end of the year.\nThe question resolves to the minimum sea ice extent in millions of km^2.\nSuggested source: [National Snow and Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives)\nRelated Questions \n---Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7943/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7945/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7946/) \n---Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7939/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7941/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/) \n---Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7949/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7951/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7952/maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n---Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent: [2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7954/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2023/), [2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7956/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2025/), [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7957/minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:31:42.288Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7961/date-ingenuity-is-grounded-for-6-months/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months, if it is operational through 2022-01-01?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7782/date-ingenuity-ceases-flights-for-6-months/) \nNASA's Mars helicopter, [Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), landed on Mars on February 18, 2021, attached to the [Perseverance rover](https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/). At the time of writing this question it has since flown [13 times](https://twitter.com/NASAJPL/status/1434368229732798469). Initially NASA intended the helicopter to undergo [5 test flights](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf), but the mission has expanded due to the success of the test flights and now Ingenuity is exploring Mars in conjunction with the Perseverance rover. The [announcement of further operations](https://mars.nasa.gov/news/8936/nasas-ingenuity-helicopter-to-begin-new-demonstration-phase/) contains the following quote, suggesting the current operations could end in August, but it is unclear what may happen beyond that point or what the longevity of the Ingenuity helicopter may be.\nThe team will assess flight operations after 30 sols and will complete flight operations no later than the end of August. That timing will allow the rover team time to wrap up its planned science activities and prepare for solar conjunction – the period in mid-October when Mars and Earth are on opposite sides of the Sun, blocking communications.\nWhen will the Mars helicopter, Ingenuity, stop making successful flights for 6 months?\nThe question resolves as the start date of the first 6 months period with no successful Ingenuity flights. The [Ingenuity flight log](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/#Flight-Log) will be used for resolution, but in the event the flight log is out of date or no longer being updated then announcements from NASA will be used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:31:47.475Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-13T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-03T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Does P equal BPP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7962/p-versus-bpp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_%28complexity%29), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_%28complexity%29#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_%28complexity%29). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.\nDoes P equal BPP?\nThis question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that P=BPP. It will resolve negatively if there is such a proof that P is not equal to BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 3000, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus. If there is no proof of disproof by the resolve date of 3000-01-01, it will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:31:52.613Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7966/israel-hezbollah-war-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Israel and Hezbollah, a US-designated terrorist organization and Lebanese militia, [fought a war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War) in 2006. [Several](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/lebanon-matti-friedman) [sources](https://breakingdefense.com/2021/08/are-israel-and-lebanon-heading-for-another-war/) have warned of another war or potential conflict. The Syrian Civil War has seen Hezbollah [increase its presence in Syria](https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-conflict-hezbollah-syria). Israel [has struck](https://www.jpost.com/Defense/Israel-strikes-Syrian-weapons-en-route-to-Hezbollah) Hezbollah weapons.\nWill there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2030:\nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths. There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Israel and Hezbollah causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\nPositive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2029. The threshold 100 at the timescale involved is such that this is unlikely. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:31:57.844Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there cease to be Maronite President of Lebanon, a Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, or a Shia Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7967/sectarianism-in-lebanon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Lebanon has an [informal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pact) which stipulates among other things that the President is always Maronite, the Prime Minister is always Sunni, and the Speaker of Parliament is always Shia. The [Taif Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement) ended the [Lebanese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War) and modified this sectarian system, changing the quotas for allocated seats slightly in favor of the Muslim population. Recently, there have been [anti-sectarian and anti-corruption protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17_October_Revolution) following troubles in Lebanon.\nWhen will there cease to be Maronite President of Lebanon, a Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, or a Shia Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon?\nThis question resolves positive when at least one of the following holds:\n--- \nOne of the offices of President of Lebanon, Prime Minister of Lebanon, and Speaker of the House of Lebanon, or an equivalent successor role, is vacant continuously for a period of 28 days.\n--- \nThere is a President of Lebanon (or an equivalent successor role) who is not a Maronite Christian\n--- \nThere is a Prime Minister of Lebanon (or an equivalent successor role) who is not a Sunni Muslim.\n--- \nThere is a Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon (or an equivalent successor role) who is not a Shia Muslim.\n\"Lebanon\" is defined to be a country that controls >50% of the land of Lebanon and has its capital in Lebanon, so name changes are OK. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:03.009Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ethereum abandon proof of work?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7971/ethereum-consensus-mechanism/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ethereum is a blockchain with smart contracts that has used proof of work as its consensus mechanism since its inception. Even since before its launch though, [there have been plans](https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/01/15/slasher-a-punitive-proof-of-stake-algorithm/) to move to the more environmentally friendly proof of stake instead.\n[In July 2015, Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin expected to move to proof of stake in 9–12 months.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3evolq/how_many_ethers_are_going_to_be_created_in_the/ctjwnjk/) A few days later, [a “difficulty bomb” was added to the go-ethereum client](https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/pull/1588), which would make mining (required for the proof of work consensus protocol) unsustainable past a given time, to enforce the move to proof of stake. However a replacement consensus implementation was not ready in time, and the difficulty bomb has been delayed many times since ([in 2017](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-649), [2018](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1234), and [2019](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-2384)). In May 2021, [the difficulty bomb was delayed until December 2021](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-3554).\nMeanwhile there has been progress on the move to proof of stake. In October 2017, Vitalik Buterin and Virgil Griffith introduced [Casper the Friendly Finality Gadget](https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.09437), “a proof of stake-based finality system which overlays an existing proof of work blockchain”. On December 1st 2020, an adaptation of this idea launched, in the form of the “beacon chain”. (See the [first block](https://beaconcha.in/block/0), and [this background story by Consensys](https://consensys.net/blog/blockchain-explained/the-ethereum-2-0-beacon-chain-is-here-now-what/).) The beacon chain is validated by proof of stake, but runs alongside the main proof of work blockchain. \nData about the proof of work chain gets included in the beacon chain, but the main proof of work chain operates independently. At some point this will change, in an event referred to as “the merge” or “docking”. The technical details about what this entails are currently unknown. After the merge, the Ethereum network should no longer need proof of work to achieve consensus.\nAdditional references:\n---[What Happens After the Merge — Vitalik Buterin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ggwLccuN5s) \n---[The “Merge” section of the ethereum/consensus-specs GitHub repository](https://github.com/ethereum/consensus-specs/blob/ac2c010dbdad521eab46146619d4ad66d09ab280/README.md#merge) \nWhen will Ethereum abandon proof of work?\nThis question resolves on the day (in UTC) that proof of work is no longer needed for the Ethereum network to achieve consensus on all transactions.\nIf an event happens that is broadly agreed to be “the merge”, but proof of work is still needed post-merge, then that event is not sufficient to resolve this question.\nIf a merge happens and miner operation is no longer required for the Ethereum network to achieve consensus after the merge, then this question resolves to the time of the merge. It might happen however, that miners continue to operate after the merge. One way in which this might happen, is if the network forks, and some people consider Ethereum to be the post-merge proof of stake chain, while others continue mining on the proof of work chain, possibly with the difficulty bomb removed. If there is no consensus about which fork is the “real” Ethereum, the fork endorsed by Vitalik Buterin (@VitalikButerin on Twitter) should be taken to be the official Ethereum network.\nIf proof of work is still required by the Ethereum network after June 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:08.243Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-06-29T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7972/significant-conflicts-for-us-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Council for Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/) (CFR) defines a conflict as having a significant impact on U.S. interests when the conflict affects countries of strategic importance to the United States but does not involve a mutual-defense treaty commitment.\nCurrently (last updated September 13, 2021), the CFR classifies [12 conflicts as significant](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/?category=us).\n---Civil War in Syria \n---Political Instability in Iraq \n---Islamist Militancy in Pakistan \n---Political Instability in Lebanon \n---Instability in Egypt \n---Conflict in Ukraine \n---Conflict Between Turkey and Armed Kurdish Groups \n---Criminal Violence in Mexico \n---Israeli-Palestinian Conflict \n---Boko Haram in Nigeria \n---Conflict Between India and Pakistan \n---Instability in Venezuela \nThese 12 significant conflicts can be tracked using the CFR's [Global Conflict Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/?category=us). Set view by to \"Impact on U.S. Interests\" and then look for Significant conflicts, which are circular and highlighted orange, on the map.\nWhat will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?\nThis question resolves as the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests, as given by the CFR's Global Conflict Tracker, on January 3rd, 2023, at 12:00 AM.\nIf the CFR Global Conflict Tracker is unavailable for use at the time of resolution, for any reason, then the resolution will be ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:13.400Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7975/european-army-before-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Wikipedia describes the [European Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army) as follows:\nThe European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence Union. Currently, there is no such army, and defence is a matter for the member states.\nThe idea of such an army is brought up periodically, although so far there are no plans in the works to create it.\nWill there be a European Army before 2032?\nThis question will resolve positive if:\nThere is legislation passed in at least 5 European countries (including one of France, Germany, UK) which makes provisions for an army consisting of units from multiple countries.\nLower level army units (eg platoons, companies, battalions, regiments) need not be mixed. (For example, often countries have armies formed from regional regiments and are still considered national armies). However, senior levels need to be staffed by officers from a range of countries.\nThe army needs to be planned to be an \"Army\". ie a joint battalion (eg the one formed between the Dutch and Germans) would not count. For this question, this means that at least 30,000 soldiers need to be planned to be in such an army.\nThe army needs to report to a supranational organization. It need not be the an EU body or any existing organization. It does need to be specifically European. eg A G7 army would not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:18.554Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/inflation-above-3-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nWill the core CPI rise by more than 3% between December 2021 and December 2022?\nThis resolves according to data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E)).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:23.760Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7978/democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.\nA governmental [Debt Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_crisis) occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to [Greece starting in 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis), and to [Latin America in the 1980s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis). Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.\nA likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget. \nThe current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:\nWill a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?\nThis resolves positive if, before 2029, a Democratic US President signs into law a budget that provides for 500 billion dollars less in spending than the budget of the previous year.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:28.911Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2041, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/).\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](https://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.\nWill an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?\nThis resolves when the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:34.847Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T20:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T02:14:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7983/deaths-from-terrorism-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Global Terrorism Database](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Database) records terrorist incidents across the globe. The most recent data published (at time of writing) was for 2019.\nHow many deaths from terrorism in 2020?\nThis question resolves based on the \"total killed\" number in the report for 2020 published by National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). eg the equivalent number for 2019 would be 20309.\nSince the timing of the report is unknown, this question should close retrospectively before the report is published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:40.040Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from terrorism in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7984/deaths-from-terrorism-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Global Terrorism Database](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Database) records terrorist incidents across the globe. The most recent data published (at time of writing) was for 2019.\nHow many deaths from terrorism in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the \"total killed\" number in the report for 2021 published by National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). eg the equivalent number for 2019 would be 20309.\nSince the timing of the report is unknown, this question should close retrospectively before the report is published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:45.158Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-01T10:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7987/commercial-paper-rate-and-cpi-wont-diverge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7995/two-theories-of-inflation) to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation. \nThe [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated.\nOne approach for extracting the trend in inflation from short-term fluctuations in the CPI is to weight the food and energy components at zero on the grounds that volatility in these components can be misleading. The result is the \"core CPI,\" which this forecast question uses, and which is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (series [CUUR0000SA0L1E](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E))\n[Commercial paper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_paper) is a type of security issued by large corporations to obtain funds to meet short-term debt obligations. Their real interest rate can be calculated by subtracting the CPI inflation rate from their nominal interest rate.\nIn 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent (here, month-over-month annualized inflation), will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?\nThis question resolves ambiguous if there is no month in 2022 where core [CPI inflation](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L1E) is above 3%.\nThis resolves positive if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and also for all such months, inflation is at most 3 percentage points higher than the [3-month prime commercial paper interest rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFSPPNA2P2D90NB).\nThis resolves negative if there is at least one month in 2022 where core CPI inflation is above 3%, and for any such month, inflation is more than 3 percentage points higher than the 3-month prime commercial paper interest rate.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:50.378Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7991/islamic-state-attacks-in-nigerian-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay by Adam_Ragozzino on the threat of Islamic State violence in Nigeria. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7996/an-advancing-islamic-state-in-nigeria) to read the full essay. \nAfter the death of Boko Haram leader, [Abubakar Shekau](https://humanglemedia.com/boko-haram-strongman-shekau-dead-as-iswap-fighters-capture-sambisa-forest/), the Islamic West Africa Province (ISWAP or ISWA) was the left the strongest violent extremist organization (VEO) in the [Lake Chad](https://www.bing.com/maps?q=lake+chad&FORM=HDRSC4) basin. \nIn 2019, Nigeria was the site of 160 attacks, and the question of whether ISWAP makes further gains into Nigerian states is of the utmost importance for the stability of Nigeria's economy and for its ability to govern.\nThis question asks how many of the following Nigerian states will see attacks by Islamic State West Africa Providence or Boko Haram within the next 6 months?\n---Borno \n---Yobe \n---Gombe \n---Adamawa \n---Jigawa \n---Bauchi \n---Plateau \n---Taraba \n---Katsina \n---Kano \n---Kaduna \n---Nassarawa \n---Benue \n---Sokoto \n---Kebbi \n---Zamfara \n---Niger \n---Kwara \n---Kogi \n---Benue \n---Federal Capital Territory \nHow many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next six months?\nThis question will resolve by referencing the [Nigerian Security Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483)'s weekly updates, e.g., [8.28 - 9.2](https://www.cfr.org/blog/nigeria-security-tracker-weekly-update-august-28-september-3). After six months, any states that appear in weekly report incident bullets indicating involvement by Islamic State, ISWAP, ISWA, Boko Haram, or any not-specified-here Islamic State offshoot are added to the count.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:32:55.516Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-17T04:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-18T03:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next twelve months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7992/islamic-state-attacks-in-nigeria-in-12-mo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay by Adam_Ragozzino on the threat of Islamic State violence in Nigeria. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7996/an-advancing-islamic-state-in-nigeria) to read the full essay. \nAfter the death of Boko Haram leader, [Abubakar Shekau](https://humanglemedia.com/boko-haram-strongman-shekau-dead-as-iswap-fighters-capture-sambisa-forest/), the Islamic West Africa Province (ISWAP or ISWA) was the left the strongest violent extremist organization (VEO) in the [Lake Chad](https://www.bing.com/maps?q=lake+chad&FORM=HDRSC4) basin. \nIn 2019, Nigeria was the site of 160 attacks, and the question of whether ISWAP makes further gains into Nigerian states is of the utmost importance for the stability of Nigeria's economy and for its ability to govern.\nThis question asks how many of the following Nigerian states will see attacks by Islamic State West Africa Providence or Boko Haram within the next 6 months?\n---Borno \n---Yobe \n---Gombe \n---Adamawa \n---Jigawa \n---Bauchi \n---Plateau \n---Taraba \n---Katsina \n---Kano \n---Kaduna \n---Nassarawa \n---Benue \n---Sokoto \n---Kebbi \n---Zamfara \n---Niger \n---Kwara \n---Kogi \n---Benue \n---Federal Capital Territory \nHow many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next 12 months?\nThis question will resolve by referencing the [Nigerian Security Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483)'s weekly updates, e.g., [8.28 - 9.2](https://www.cfr.org/blog/nigeria-security-tracker-weekly-update-august-28-september-3). After 12 months, any states that appear in weekly report incident bullets indicating involvement by Islamic State, ISWAP, ISWA, Boko Haram, or any not-specified-here Islamic State offshoot are added to the count.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:00.654Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-17T03:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-18T03:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next twenty-four months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7993/islamic-state-attacks-in-nigeria-in-24-mo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay by Adam_Ragozzino on the threat of Islamic State violence in Nigeria. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7996/an-advancing-islamic-state-in-nigeria) to read the full essay. \nAfter the death of Boko Haram leader, [Abubakar Shekau](https://humanglemedia.com/boko-haram-strongman-shekau-dead-as-iswap-fighters-capture-sambisa-forest/), the Islamic West Africa Province (ISWAP or ISWA) was the left the strongest violent extremist organization (VEO) in the [Lake Chad](https://www.bing.com/maps?q=lake+chad&FORM=HDRSC4) basin. \nIn 2019, Nigeria was the site of 160 attacks, and the question of whether ISWAP makes further gains into Nigerian states is of the utmost importance for the stability of Nigeria's economy and for its ability to govern.\nThis question asks how many of the following Nigerian states will see attacks by Islamic State West Africa Providence or Boko Haram within the next 6 months?\n---Borno \n---Yobe \n---Gombe \n---Adamawa \n---Jigawa \n---Bauchi \n---Plateau \n---Taraba \n---Katsina \n---Kano \n---Kaduna \n---Nassarawa \n---Benue \n---Sokoto \n---Kebbi \n---Zamfara \n---Niger \n---Kwara \n---Kogi \n---Benue \n---Federal Capital Territory \nHow many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks in the next 24 months?\nThis question will resolve by referencing the [Nigerian Security Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483)'s weekly updates, e.g., [8.28 - 9.2](https://www.cfr.org/blog/nigeria-security-tracker-weekly-update-august-28-september-3). After 24 months, any states that appear in weekly report incident bullets indicating involvement by Islamic State, ISWAP, ISWA, Boko Haram, or any not-specified-here Islamic State offshoot are added to the count.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:05.794Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-17T03:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-09-22T03:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2031, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/).\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](https://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.\nWill an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?\nThis resolves when the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:10.970Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T20:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-02T02:14:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from terrorism in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7999/deaths-from-terrorism-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Global Terrorism Database](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Database) records terrorist incidents across the globe. The most recent data published (at time of writing) was for 2019.\nHow many deaths from terrorism in 2025?\nThis question resolves based on the \"total killed\" number in the report for 2025 published by National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). eg the equivalent number for 2019 would be 20309.\nSince the timing of the report is unknown, this question should close retrospectively before the report is published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:31.736Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from terrorism in Afghanistan in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8000/deaths-from-terrorism-in-afghanistan-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US pulled out of Afghanistan in [August 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_the_United_States_troops_from_Afghanistan_%282020%E2%80%932021%29). This could plausibly change the direction of terrorist incidents in the region in two directions:\n1-- \nMore attacks - the US forces were acting as a suppressor and the Taliban will be more permissive of terrorist attacks\n2-- \nFewer attacks - the terrorist attacks are due to an occupying force and the removal of troops will reduce the number of targets for attacks.\nThe [Global Terrorism Database](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Terrorism_Database) records terrorist incidents across the globe. The most recent data published (at time of writing) was for 2019.\nHow many deaths from terrorism in Afghanistan in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the \"total killed\" in Afghanistan number in the report for 2021 published by START. eg the equivalent number for 2019 would be 8249.\nSince the timing of the report is unknown, this question should close retrospectively before the report is published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:36.851Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many emojis will there be in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8001/number-of-emojis-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform. \nEmojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of the yearly Unicode standard is in a very stable state, so that the total number of Emojis can be determined.\nThe number of Emojis has increased steadily since [Unicode v11.0 in 2018 when it was at 2789](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-11.0/emoji-counts.html) to [3633 in Unicode v14.0, published 2021](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-14.0/emoji-counts.html).\nWhat will be the growth trend of Emojis in the next five years and how many emojis will be there in Unicode 19.0, expected in 2026?\nHow many emojis will there be in 2026?\nThe question will resolve according to the total number of Emojis reported in the [Emoji Counts](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts/emoji-counts.html) table published by Unicode, Inc.\nIf no Emoji Counts chart is published by Unicode, Inc. at that location, Metaculus moderators may determine the count according to numbers published by Unicode, Inc. or a successor organization elsewhere. \nIf the latest version of the Unicode standard at resolution time is not 19.0, the question will be resolved according to the latest released version. This also applies if the standard ceases to be updated or published in the meantime.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:41.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-07-16T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8005/coup-by-bolsonaro-by-january-2nd-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [The Week](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/americas/954151/brazil-election-is-jair-bolsonaro-preparing-to-stage-a-coup),\nIs Jair Bolsonaro preparing to stage a coup? It’s starting to look that way, said Fernando de Barros e Silva in Folha de São Paulo. Last week, Brazil’s far-right president marked his country’s independence day by staging a huge rally in São Paulo. Addressing 140,000 supporters, he repeated his previous attacks on the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, and lashed out at the Supreme Court, vowing to no longer follow its rulings.\nHe also launched a bitter verbal assault on one of the court’s justices, who incurred his wrath by authorising several probes into his conduct, including to examine whether he has committed a crime by spreading fake news about the risk of fraud in next year’s presidential elections. But it was his uncompromising language that really set alarm bells ringing. “I will never be jailed,” vowed the 66-year-old former army captain. “Only God will oust me.”\nWill Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2nd 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following happen before January 2nd 2023 (Pacific Time),\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro successfully staged a coup\n--- \nCredible media assert that Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election AND Jair Bolsonaro is widely considered to still be in power by the end of the day on January 1st 2023\n\"Credible media\" refers to a consensus among major American media outlets: NBC, ABC, AP, NY Times, Washington Post, Fox News and CBS.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:47.287Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8009/urbit-devlopment-ongoing-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Urbit is ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbit)):\na decentralized personal server platform.[1] The platform seeks to deconstruct the client-server model in favour of a federated network of personal servers in a peer-to-peer network with a consistent digital identity.[2]\nThe aims are bold, so will it succeed? One way to quantify this is to think of whether the development is still ongoing in 2025. Urbit code changes [are public on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main).\nWill Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?\n---If there are at least 3 commits in the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-01, this question resolves positively. \n---The commit must be made publicly on the codebase. Currently, [this is on Github](https://github.com/urbit/port/commits/main). If it moves, the official codebase at the new location will be used. \n---If the codebase becomes closed, admins judge whether development can be said to be ongoing, based on activity of the developer team elsewhere (e.g., are they actively promoting the project on [social media](https://twitter.com/urbit)? and [the project blog](https://urbit.org/blog)?). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:52.975Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8010/best-asymptotic-upper-bound-on-mertens-func/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/) to learn more. \nLet denote the Mobius function and define as a function from the positive integers to the integers to be equal to the partial sums of the Mobius function. In other words, define\nIt is known that : this statement is equivalent to the prime number theorem. ( is called the [Mertens function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mertens_function).)\nLet denote the set of all positive real numbers such that for all . The statement that is equivalent to the Riemann hypothesis, but even if this does not hold, we can still try to ask about how big the partial sums can grow. Currently, the best proven upper bound on is 1.\nWhat will be the best proven upper bound on the infimum of in 2120?\nThis question will resolve as the best (smallest) proven upper bound on the infimum of that is available in the year 2120.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:33:58.115Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-17T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-02T02:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T02:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the best proven lower bound on the infimum of S in 2120?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8011/best-asymptotic-lower-bound-on-mertens-func/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay by ege_erdil on the past and future of the Riemann hypothesis. [Read the full essay here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7997/riemann-hypothesis-past-and-future/). \nLet denote the Mobius function and define as a function from the positive integers to the integers to be equal to the partial sums of the Mobius function. In other words, define\nIt is known that : this statement is equivalent to the prime number theorem. ( is called the [Mertens function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mertens_function).)\nLet denote the set of all positive real numbers such that for all . The statement that is equivalent to the Riemann hypothesis, but even if this does not hold, we can still try to ask about how big the partial sums can grow. Currently, the best proven lower bound on is .\nWhat will be the best proven lower bound on the infimum of in 2120?\nThis question will resolve as the best (largest) proven lower bound on the infimum of that is available in the year 2120.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:03.240Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-17T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2120-01-02T02:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-02T02:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8014/chevy-bolt-recall-repair-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November of 2020 GM [issued a recall](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/consumer-alert-important-chevrolet-bolt-recall-fire-risk) due to the risk of battery fires for 2017 through 2018 Chevy Bolts and select 2019 Chevy Bolts. The recall was later expanded to [include all Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV models](https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-recall). The expanded recall [reportedly covers around 141,000 vehicles](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a37552121/chevy-bolt-battery-recall-deep-dive-details/).\nWhen will a total of 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?\nThis resolves as the date when either General Motors announces that a total of 50,000 or more Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs related to the recall for risk of battery fire, or three reputable media outlets report the number to be 50,000 or higher. The resolution date will be the date the announcement is published or the latest date of the third reputable media report used for resolution (if more than three are provided by the community the most recent of the earliest three will be used for resolution).\nIf specific numbers of repairs are not reported, reports of percentages can be used based on the reported 141,000 vehicles covered by the recall (if later reports conflict with the 141,000 number moderators may use their discretion to determine which is most accurate). If it is unclear what portion of vehicles have been repaired as opposed to bought back by GM then moderators may resolve this question ambiguously if they cannot determine that the threshold of 50,000 repairs has been exceeded. If no updates are provided to the public on vehicle repair progress by the resolution date this question resolves as greater than 9/30/2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:13.694Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T04:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T03:15:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first FAAMG company have a workforce that is 50% or fewer men?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8015/faamg-workforce-gender-parity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The San Francisco Chronicle [reports](https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/Silicon-Valley-pledged-to-become-more-diverse-A-16414178.php):\nWith the industry having been a majority-white, majority-male space since birth, tech giants issued promises to diversify their staffs and promised hefty donations designed in part to help diversify employment pipelines and increase training for tech jobs.\nAmong the more ambitious pledges last year, Google and Facebook pledged to increase underrepresented leadership by 30% over the next five years, with each earmarking more than $100 million to support Black business owners and other groups in the Black community. Other firms joined in: A 2020 study by corporate analytics service Blendoor estimates that more than $4.5 billion was poured into diversity efforts across the entire industry.\nThe \"Diversity in High Tech\" special report of the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission states:\nIn Silicon Valley, employment of women and men in non-technology firms is at about parity with 49 percent women and 51 percent men. This compares to the 30 percent participation rate for women at 75 select leading Silicon Valley tech firms.\nWhen will the first FAAMG have a workforce that is 50% or fewer men?\nThe question will resolve when one of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google or Microsoft has published a diversity report where 50% or less (rounded off to the nearest integer) of its workforce is male, or when a third party auditor has published a report to that effect.\nIf this does not occur by 2100, this question resolves as >2100. \nThe correct year is the calendar year that the report covers, not the year it is published (or if the report says gender parity was reached in a period spanning multiple calendar years, the first of those calendar years). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:18.932Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8021/arrival-of-human-level-language-models/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and to see how they're linked.\nA [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is a probability distribution over a sequence of text, often used with the aim to write sentences in natural language that are coherent, despite not being written by any human. In 1950, Claude Shannon placed a lower bound on the inherent [entropy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_%28information_theory%29) in the English language to be [around 0.6](https://www.princeton.edu/~wbialek/rome/refs/shannon_51.pdf). Later research has [roughly confirmed](https://www.gwern.net/Differences#efficient-natural-languages) this result.\nArguably, a language model can be said to be at roughly \"human-level\" if its entropy is roughly equal to the estimated entropy in printed English. Concretely, let's define a human-level language model to be one whose word-level perplexity score is below 9.95, a character-level perplexity below 1.57, or a calculated entropy value below 0.65. These estimates lie slightly above the Shannon's lower bound estimate, to avoid a scenario where the question resolves very late as a result of a poor entropy estimate.\nWhen will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?\nAny of the following datasets are valid test sets in the English language for the purpose of this question:\n---Penn Treebank (Word Level) \n---Penn Treebank (Character Level) \n---WikiText-103 \n---enwiki8 \n---One Billion Word \n---Text8 \n---WikiText-2 \n---The Pile \nSee [this page](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) for more information about each dataset, and current progress. This question resolves on the date during which a paper describing some language model is first published, which after or simultaneous with publishing, is revealed to have a word-level perplexity score below 9.95, a character-level perplexity score below 1.57, or a calculated entropy value below 0.65 on at least TWO of the benchmarks above. Importantly, the original paper introducing the paper need not report these results; this question may indeed resolve years after such a development becomes clear.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:24.104Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-28T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8022/best-perplexity-on-penn-treebank-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and to see how they're linked.\nThe [Penn Treebank dataset](https://catalog.ldc.upenn.edu/LDC99T42) is \"one million words of 1989 Wall Street Journal material annotated in Treebank II style\". It has been used for decades to measure the performance of language models at the task of predicting characters in English text. OpenAI's GPT-3 reportedly scored a word-level [perplexity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perplexity) score of 20.5. What will be the best reported score by the end of 2024?\nWhat will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?\nPapers With Code currently documents progress on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) dataset, which you can find [here](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-penn-treebank-word). At the end of 2024, the best credible word-level perplexity score by any language model, discovered by Metaculites on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) will determine resolution. For example, if no model improves on GPT-3's current lead, then this question will resolve at a value of 20.5.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:29.222Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many hours a week will coders report using GPT-X Codex type tools in Robin Hanson's 2026 Twitter poll?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8026/hours-a-week-coders-use-language-models-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. [Read the essay](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8329/human-level-language-models/) to learn more and to see how they're linked.\nOn August 20th 2021, Robin Hanson [tweeted a poll asking](https://mobile.twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1428738866962329608),\nIn Jan 2026 I will do a Twitter poll asking only professional coders to say how many hours/wk they use GPT-X Codex type tools to help them code. What will be their median answer (from a lognormal fit)?\nHis followers anticipated 15.2 hours for the above poll, or 0.253 hours. How many hours do Metaculites expect?\nHow many hours a week will coders report using GPT-X Codex type tools in Robin Hanson's 2026 Twitter poll?\nAssume that in January 2026, Robin Hanson releases a Twitter poll, or some other poll on any other platform he uses at that time, asking his followers for the number of hours per week professional coders will spend using GPT-X Codex type tools to help them code. This question resolves according to the median answer in his poll, from a lognormal fit. \nIf Robin Hanson does not release such a poll to his followers, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:34.369Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-14T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8032/iran-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.\nWill Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Iranian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:39.637Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization [announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815071616/https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-%282019-ncov%29) regarding the COVID-19 in China. [They declared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51839944) that the outbreak had become a pandemic on 2021-03-11 . [The declarations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern) are typically renewed every 3 months as the WHO gives updated information on the severity of the outbreak, medical information, and policy recommendations. The WHO has renewed the PHEIC every 3 months since 2020-01-30, most recently [on 2021-07-14](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815063146/https://www.who.int/news/item/15-07-2021-statement-on-the-eighth-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29-emergency-committee-regarding-the-coronavirus-disease-%28covid-19%29-pandemic).\nThe world is struggling to ask the nebulous question, \"When will the pandemic end?\" For some, it already has; from other points of view ([\"When will COVID-19 be eradicated?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7601/covid-19-eradication/)) it may never end. But we don't have to bother with defining the \"end\" of the pandemic-- that's the WHO's job.\nWhen will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?\nThis question will resolve on the date that the WHO announces that COVID-19 (and all related variants) is no longer a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, nor is it a global pandemic. No other sources (US CDC, EU CDC) will be considered for this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:44.825Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-25T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-09-22T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8034/hen-caging-prohibition-bill-becomes-uk-law/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051) is a bill introduced by Henry Smith, the Conservative Party MP for Crawley, to the House of Commons in a Ten Minute Rule speech [on 22nd September 2021](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2021-09-22/debates/3E79001A-C8B4-4DD7-8877-DC8A1E15DD2D/HenCaging%28Prohibition%29). If passed, the bill will prohibit the use of cages for egg-laying hens.\nFollowing its first reading, there was no opposition to printing as a bill and [to a second reading](https://thehumaneleague.org.uk/article/the-latest-news-on-our-fight-against-cages), which is scheduled for 22nd October 2021.\nWill the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?\nThis resolves positively if the Hen Caging (Prohibition) Bill introduced by Henry Smith receives Royal Assent and becomes law in the 2021-22 parliamentary session, recorded on the official [Parliamentary Bills website](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3051).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:49.956Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8035/russia-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The National Interest [has reported](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-fines-pro-afghanistan-protesters-pursues-relations-taliban-192822) that Russia is pursuing friendly relations with the Taliban.\nWill Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Russian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:34:55.088Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much aid will the US give to Israel in FY 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8042/us-aid-to-israel-in-fy-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States and Israel are [close](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_relations) [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_military_relations) [allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally). Over the years, Israel has received [foreign aid from the United States](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/total-u-s-foreign-aid-to-israel-1949-present), both military and economic. Proponents [argue](https://www.jns.org/opinion/us-aid-to-israel-is-an-investment/) that this aid helps advance Israeli and American interests. [Critics sympathetic to Israel](https://townhall.com/columnists/jeffjacoby/2016/09/05/israel-doesnt-need-american-foreign-aid-n2213875) [have](https://twitter.com/anshelpfeffer/status/1395769238523088897) [argued](https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-end-u-s-aid-to-israel-for-the-sake-of-american-jews-1.9829349) that the aid is unnecessary, superfluous, and harmful for Israel because it is earmarked to buy American planes and that it is [no longer significant](https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1440678615650213902). [Critics hostile to Israel](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-israel-arms-sale-congress-reaction) have criticized the aid, calling it a violation of the [Leahy Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leahy_Law). The United States and Israel [signed a deal](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-israel-statement-idUSKCN11K2CI) under which the United States would give Israel $3.8B USD per year, which expires at the end of September 2028, when [FY 2028](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) ends. We ask here about FY 2030.\nHow much aid will the US give to Israel in FY 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total amount of aid in billions of USD that Israel receives from the United States in [FY 2030](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States), as reported by the [Jewish Virtual Library](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/total-u-s-foreign-aid-to-israel-1949-present). Should the Jewish Virtual Library not exist or not publish the relevant information, moderators may pick another reliable source at their discretion. Should no source be deemed suitable, the question will resolve ambiguous\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:00.268Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8043/australia-gets-a-nuclear-powered-submarine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2021, the [Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced](https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-24) that Australia would scrap its existing contract for Attack-class submarines with France and instead build nuclear-powered submarines with the support of the United States and United Kingdom, a \"forever partnership\" called [AUKUS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS). \nThe Australian Government has spent $2.4 billion so far on the Attack-class submarine contract, which it signed in 2016. \nThe next step for nuclear-powered submarines is an [18-month taskforce](https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-24) to assess infrastructure needs, waste disposal, and other considerations. \nOne concern for the nuclear-powered submarine timeline is how long Australia's current submarines, the Collins-class, can remain in use. They were originally expected to be decommissioned in 2026; under the old agreement the plan was to extend their lives until the [early 2030s](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-01/collins-class-submarine-life-to-be-extended/7212532). \nThe federal Opposition says the new submarines may not be constructed [until 2040](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-17/aus-strategically-naked-under-submarine-deal/100469254).\nIn the meantime, the US is apparently unlikely to lease nuclear-powered submarines and buying them \"off the shelf\" [would take at least five years](https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/australia-unlikely-to-lease-us-submarines-says-former-navy-chief-20210922-p58tqe).\nWhen will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?\nResolves according to credible media reporting, an entry on Australia's Royal Navy website or other official report by the Royal Navy, or figures published by a credible organisation like the U.S. Naval Institute. \nShip commissioning involves putting the ship into active service. There can be a large gap between when a ship is \"launched\" (first transferred from land to water) and when it is \"commissioned\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:05.452Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture be proved true?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8047/n-s-existence--smoothness-proved-true/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbulence/).\nThe [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if any one of them is proven.\nWhen will the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture be proved true?\nThis question will resolve to the date in which the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture is awarded before the resolution date of this question for either a proof of statement A or statement B. It will resolve as > if the Millennium Prize is awarded for the proof of the breakdown of the equations, in other words for a proof of C or D; or if neither event takes place until the resolution time of the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:10.617Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture be proved false?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8048/n-s-existence--smoothness-proved-false/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is linked to a fortified essay on the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem. [Read the essay to learn more](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8162/ultraviolet-catastrophes-and-turbulence/).\nThe [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if any one of them is proven\nWhen will the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture be proved false?\nThis question will resolve to the date in which the Millennium Prize for the proof of the breakdown of the Navier-Stokes solutions before the resolution date of this question for either a proof of statement C or statement D. It will resolve as > if the Millennium Prize is awarded for the proof of the existence and smoothness conjecture, in other words for a proof of A or B; or if neither event takes place until the resolution time of the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:16.310Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8049/n-s-existence--smoothness-and-compactness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if any one of them is proven.\nImportantly for this question, the statements A and C are about the Navier-Stokes equations defined on the noncompact space , while B and D are about the equations defined on the compact torus .\nWill the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?\nThis question resolves positively if before the resolution date of the question there are proofs of either both A and D or both B and C. It resolves negatively if there are proofs of either both A and B or both C and D. If neither event takes place before the resolution date of the question, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:21.416Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8050/israel-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. [The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1435398469292904450)\nWill Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that Israel has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:26.594Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A previous Metaculus question asked about a [great power war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) and whether the [US and others would intervene](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/) in a [conflict over Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/). Some scholars have warned about a [Thucydides Trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap) that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or some other issue.\nWill armed conflicts between the national military forces, and/or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths. Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:31.793Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8052/elizabeth-holmes-sentence-if-convicted/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elizabeth Anne Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes) is an American former businesswoman who was the founder and chief executive of Theranos, a now-defunct health technology company. Theranos soared in valuation after the company claimed to have revolutionized blood testing by developing testing methods that could use surprisingly small volumes of blood, such as from a fingerprick.\nBy 2015, Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America on the basis of a $9 billion valuation of her company. The next year, following revelations of potential fraud about Theranos' claims, Forbes had revised its published estimate of Holmes' net worth to zero, and Fortune had named her one of the \"World's Most Disappointing Leaders\".\nAs of September 2021, Holmes is on trial on [10 counts of wire fraud and two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-theranos-trial-elizabeth-holmes-the-charges-and-what-else-to-know-11625865236) If convicted of any count, [Holmes faces a sentence of up to 20 years in prison.](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1343)\nIf Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in the Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?\nIn the event that Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of at least one count of wire fraud or conspiracy to commit wire fraud in connection with Theranos, this question resolves as the number of months of imprisonment she is sentenced to serve. \nNote in particular that this question resolves on the basis of the sentence, not on the basis of the actual time that is likely to be served in prison, or the actual time that is served in prison. See examples given in the fine print section for further details.\n[18 U.S. Code § 3553](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/3553) governs federal sentencing, including outlining the factors to be considered in imposing a sentence, and the application of the Federal Sentencing Guidelines in imposing a sentence.\nThe Federal Sentencing Guidelines are non-binding rules that set out a uniform sentencing policy for defendants convicted in the United States federal court system. While adherence to the Guidelines is not mandatory, federal judges must consider them when determining a convicted criminal defendant's sentence. The Guidelines can be viewed [here](https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manual/2018/GLMFull.pdf) (PDF).\nIf Elizabeth Holmes is not convicted of any count of wire fraud or conspiracy to commit wire fraud in connection with Theranos before 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHome confinement does not count as \"imprisonment.\"\nIf Holmes is convicted, but her sentence does not include any term of imprisonment, this question resolves as 0 months. \nIf Holmes is sentenced to 120 months in prison, the question resolves as 120 months, even if Holmes would not be expected to serve her entire sentence in prison.\nIf Holmes is sentenced to serve consecutive terms of imprisonment, it is possible (per U.S.S.G. § 5G1.2(d)) the total term of imprisonment could be more than the statutory maximum (20 years, or 240 months) for a single charge. In this case, the question would resolve as greater than 240 months (> 240).\nIf Holmes' sentence is later reduced or her conviction(s) overturned on appeal, this question's resolution value does not change. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:37.087Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).\nWill Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?\nA \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:\n---resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date), \n---lost a confidence vote, \n---lost an election, \n---formally left office, \n---died, \n---been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days, \n---been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days. \nResolution will be according to reliable published reports.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:42.513Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-09-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-13T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu's trial end in conviction?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8055/netanyahu-trial-results-in-conviction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/) asked if [Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) would be convicted by 2022. Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of Israel's opposition has been [on trial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu) in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. In January 2022, it was reported that Netanyahu is [negotiating a](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-plea-deal-israel-intl/index.html) [plea deal](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/netanyahu-plea-bargain-israel-politics/). However, it was reported then that he [rejected the deal](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-694414) because it would ban him from politics. It is [generally believed](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-694414) that any success to Mandelblit will not offer any sort of plea deal as generous as the one Mandelblit is offering. Mandelblit is stepping down on February 1.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by 2030?\nThis will resolve positively on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge of Case 1000, Case 2000, or Case 4000. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial will not count for positive resolution. If the charges are dropped it will resolve negative. If there is no verdict by 2030-01-01 then this question will resolve as negative.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:47.646Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system be successfully returned to Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8072/date-of-sample-return-from-the-icy-moons/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The icy moons of the gas giant planets are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time in our solar system. Missions such as NASA’s Europa Clipper will be launched in the coming years to establish whether icy moons such as Europa are able to support microbial life. \nOnce this is established, several other mission concepts currently being investigated would be capable of searching for signs of any microbial life on Enceladus, Europa or other icy moons. One of these concepts involves flying through the water vapor plumes observed on Enceladus that are assumed to blast water and ice particles coming from the subglacial ocean on that moon. These plumes are assumed to be connected directly to the subglacial ocean on Enceladus and could thus carry signatures of any life native to Enceladus. There are strong indications that such plumes exist also on Europa and could also exist on other icy moons. \nWhen will a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system be successfully returned to Earth?\nThe question resolves on the date that a sample from any of the icy moons in the outer solar system (in the asteroid belt and beyond) is successfully returned to be analyzed in a lab by humans. The resolution date will be the date the sample safely arrives at the lab. If this does not happen before 2100-01-01, this will resolve >2100-01-01.\nAn \"icy moon\" is defined here as any natural body in the outer solar system (asteroid belt and beyond) with a current stable body of liquid water, excluding the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune).\nThe returned sample can be captured either in the plumes, from the surface, or anywhere else on an icy moon, and must safely reach a lab to be analyzed by humans.\nThe mission science requirements for the sample return should include astrobiological goals and the returned sample should be of sufficient quantity and quality to satisfy these astrobiological mission requirements.\nThe lab could be anywhere on Earth or in Earth orbit. If first sampling is performed in-situ by a human spaceflight mission, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:52.843Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-22T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8073/date-when-the-ocean-of-an-icy-moon-is-reached/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places for hosting microbial life in the present time. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. \nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious and challenging of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to melt through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, the ocean can be investigated for the existence of extant life.\nWhen will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?\nThe question resolves on the date a probe reaches the main body of an ocean on one of the icy moons. Official announcements by the space agency will count as a resolution source, and the resolution date will be the date the agency has confirmed the probe has reached the ocean. The probe may have damaged systems but must at least be able to communicate with Earth/humans/its surface module. If this does not happen successfully by 2100-01-01, this will resolve as >2100-01-01.\nAn \"icy moon\" is defined here as any natural body in the outer solar system (asteroid belt and beyond) with a current stable body of liquid water, excluding the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune).\nAn ocean is defined here as a body of water girdling the entire icy moon and/or in contact with the icy moon's rocky core.\nAny probe confirmed to have reached the main body of an ocean on one of the icy moons will resolve this question. This can be either by melting, going down an open fissure or any other way. The probe can be robotic or crewed by humans but it must be able to communicate to its operators on Earth that the ocean has been reached. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:35:57.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-22T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8074/existence-of-macrofauna-on-an-icy-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places in the search for life in the present time in our solar system. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. However, it remains unclear whether an icy moon has the appropriate conditions for hosting macrofauna; for example, whether there are mechanisms available for the transfer of a sufficient amount of oxygen to the ocean. \nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to drill through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, a submersible can investigate the ocean for extant life. Such a challenging mission would most likely take place sometime in the second half 21st century. It would be possible that such a mission could be equipped to not only detect microbial life but also any existing macrofauna.\nIf we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?\nThe question resolves positively if at least two national space agencies publicly state they believe the existence of macrofauna native to the ocean of an icy moon has been confirmed. Confirmed life may be currently alive, or dead (such that we find fossilized remains). Discoveries of life and macrofauna need not occur at the same time, nor in the same place.\nIf we do not discover any evidence of life on an icy moon by 2200, this question will resolve ambiguously. If we discover life on an icy moon but do not find macrofauna, this question resolves negative. If we discover life somewhere else (for example, on Mars) but find no life on an icy moon, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor the purpose of this question, \"macrofauna\" is defined as any multicellular organism larger than the approximate minimum resolution of the naked eye (0.1 mm). In other words, any multicellular organism that would be retained on a 0.1 mm mesh.\nAn \"icy moon\" is defined here as any natural body in the outer solar system (asteroid belt and beyond) with a current stable body of liquid water, excluding the gas giant planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:03.122Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2038-11-19T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8088/israel-gni-in-2031-if-no-iran-bomb/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asks if Iran will get a nuclear weapon by 2030. The World Bank [keeps track](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_%28nominal%29_per_capita) of Gross National Income per capita, and publishes yearly figures. [Some Israelis](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-s-two-terrible-options-live-with-a-nuclear-iran-or-bomb-it-1.10243995) have warned that an Iranian bomb is a grave threat to the Israeli economy, but [others claim](https://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-can-live-with-Iranian-nuclear-bomb) Israel can live with an Iranian bomb, just as South Korea lives with a North Korean bomb.\nIf Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?\nThis question will resolve as the value of Israel's 2031 GNI per capita in thousands of 2022 US dollars if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively. Otherwise, it will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:08.287Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Iran does not have a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8089/israel-gni-in-2031-if-no-iran-bomb/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asks if Iran will get a nuclear weapon by 2030. The World Bank [keeps track](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_%28nominal%29_per_capita) of Gross National Income per capita, and publishes yearly figures. [Some Israelis](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-s-two-terrible-options-live-with-a-nuclear-iran-or-bomb-it-1.10243995) have warned that an Iranian bomb is a grave threat to the Israeli economy, but [others claim](https://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Israel-can-live-with-Iranian-nuclear-bomb) Israel can live with an Iranian bomb, just as South Korea lives with a North Korean bomb.\nIf Iran does not have a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?\nThis question will resolve as the value of Israel's 2031 GNI per capita in thousands of 2022 US dollars if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively. Otherwise, it will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:13.420Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8090/polygenic-score-for-intelligence-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions:\n---[When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) \n---[When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) \n[Embryo selection](https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection) is a technology that allows people to select for traits in their future children. Current technology allows parents to choose from easily predictable traits such as sex, eye color, hair color, and skin color, but it is also possible to select for complex traits such as height, mental health, and intelligence. The latter has [received](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/11/08/132018/polygenic-score-ivf-embryo-dna-tests-genomic-prediction-gattaca/) [significant](https://www.statnews.com/2019/02/12/embryo-profiling-iq-almost-here/) attention due to among others the company Genomic Prediction. While the company does not currently offer this service, it is widely expected that someone will in the near future, or even currently behind the curtains.\n[The efficiency of this method requires](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2105065) that the polygenic scores work between siblings, as all embryos are siblings (when the same father is used for all embryos). However, [often scores for socially valued traits perform less well among siblings than unrelated persons](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002929719302319). Thus, this quantity is of central importance to the future. [The latest GWAS for intelligence, EA4, found that sibling validity was 82% as effective as that between families.](https://twitter.com/Russwarne/status/1433857394803544068)\nHow good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?\n---Any public study showing the validity of polygenic scores to predict intelligence or educational achievement (i.e., scholastic tests like SAT in the USA or CITO in Netherlands) among full siblings is acceptable for the purpose of this question (fixed effects design). Educational attainment (i.e., degrees or years of schooling) is NOT a valid outcome. \n---The study can be a preprint (not peer-reviewed). \n---The efficiency is measured as the beta value from this design. [This study gives an example](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002929719302319). A value of 0 means the scores has no predictive validity, and a value of 1 means it predicts all variation in intelligence. The maximum possible validity is limited by the square root of the heritability. E.g., if heritability is 60%, the maximum possible validity is 0.77. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:18.701Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Palestinian election be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8091/date-of-next-palestinian-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There have been three Palestinian elections so far. The first was the general election in [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Palestinian_general_election) and Yasser Arafat won with almost 90% of the vote. The second was the Presidential Election in [2005](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Palestinian_presidential_election), which Mahmoud Abbas won, and which was boycotted by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The third Palestinian election was the legislative election in [2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), where [opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election#Opinion_polls) predicted a Fatah victory, but the result was instead a Hamas victory. Hamas [took over Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gaza_%282007%29) in 2007. There was scheduled to be [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Palestinian_presidential_election) and a [legislative election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Palestinian_legislative_election) in 2021, but both have been postponed indefinitely.\nWhen will the next Palestinian election be held?\nThis question will resolve to the date of the next Palestinian election, as reported by reliable media sources, whether legislative, presidential, or general (i.e. both presidential and legislative). If there is no election by the resolve date it resolves as >.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:23.830Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage of employed persons working at home on an average day in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8092/percentage-of-us-remote-workers-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Contemporary American society centers around place-based work. Cities like Detroit and New York were built on industry, with modern infrastructure set up to support commerce and expanding workforces. It’s not a stretch to say that Americans tend to organize their lives around work. Citizens live in areas with job opportunities, they receive healthcare from employers and they spend significant time and money commuting from and to work.\nThe ability to work remotely is a noteworthy shift from this standard. The combination of high speed internet connection, laptop and secure VPN now enables a significant subset of employees to access their workplace without stepping foot inside an office. In the early part of the 21st century, most employers were loath to embrace these technological advances except on an ad hoc basis, perhaps due to concerns about productivity or ability to retain talent. However, the COVID-19 pandemic forced these same employers to institute potentially long-term work-from-home policies. Moving forward, they may continue or expand remote work policies due to employee demand, as a cost-saving measure or due to growing concerns about [GHG emissions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8092/percentage-of-us-remote-workers-in-2030/).\n[This study](https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf) estimates that only 37% of American jobs are feasible to be performed at home. Improvements to technologies such as virtual reality may further increase the number of jobs that can be done remotely. The consequences of an increasingly remote workplace are ill-defined, but it’s likely that employees will choose to live in locations central to family or personal interests. Will people move to areas with lower costs of living, or will the networking effects of city life become even more amplified? These shifts are sure to impact business, investment, taxes and healthcare in unforeseen ways.\nThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts an annual American Time Use Survey (ATUS), which measures the amount of time people spend doing various activities, such as paid work, childcare, volunteering, and socializing. This survey ([see questionnaire here](https://www.bls.gov/tus/tuquestionnaire.pdf)) attempts to quantify the percentage of Americans working from home on an average day. From years 2009-2019, this number remained within a range of 21-24%. In 2020, [this number doubled to 42%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.nr0.htm).\nWhat will be the percentage of employed persons working at home on an average day in 2030?\nThis question will resolve according to the [BLS 2030 ATUS](https://www.bls.gov/tus/) survey for the percentage of Americans working from home on an average day (currently series TUU30105AA01043855 reported [here](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate)).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:28.946Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-01T02:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an effort to coordinate foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8093/moving-us-voters-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Declaration of Independence refers to the concept of the [consent of the governed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consent_of_the_governed), that governance and its associated authority are derived from the will of the people. A lack of consent may lead to revolution in extreme cases. In modern America, citizens typically interact with governance by voting and advocating for representatives and preferred policies, or by moving to another jurisdiction with governance that already more closely aligns with their current interests.\n[Foot voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_voting) is the \"physical migration to leave a situation one does not like, or to move to a situation one regards as more beneficial.” America has a rich history of migration and de facto foot voting. The westward movement of citizens via Manifest Destiny, the [Mormons’ mass exodus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormon_pioneers) to Utah, and the movement of African Americans to northern cities are historic examples of foot voting in America. Although such radical migrations are less visible today, Americans still move with regularity, and federalism allows American jurisdictions to compete for residents based on tax policy, healthcare, education, job opportunities and other aspects of governance.\nIn 2001, the [Free State Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project) (FSP), a non-profit organization, explicitly encouraged Americans to move to New Hampshire to support and influence the state’s governance. Participants were asked to sign a statement of intent to move to New Hampshire within five years of reaching 20,000 signatories. In 2016, the threshold was met. There were almost 2,000 early movers, and by 2021, over 5,000 of the original signees had purportedly moved to NH, and 17 state representatives [self-identified as Free Staters](https://freestateprojectwatch.org/fsp-members-in-nh-state-senate-house-2017-2018/) in the 2017-2018 session. FSP asserts that it no longer actively aims for a specific number of voters to move. Regardless, this is both objectively impressive and evidence that this kind of coordination is extremely difficult. FSP legitimately changed NH politics but only 25% of these motivated Americans found it viable to move.\nThe Free State Project is a seminal example of foot voting that was coordinated, which refers to the intentional effort to coordinate foot voting en masse to increase the value of individual votes.\nWill a coordinated effort at foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if any organization, platform or group publicly self-proclaims that they have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state by Jan 1, 2030 with the intention of voting en masse. Claims must be corroborated by credible media reports, and in the case of ambiguity, Metaculus Admins will make a determination at their discretion. We’re specifically interested in modern and relatively acute instances of CFV, so the effort should have started on or after January 1, 2016, shortly before FSP officially started counting movers (If for example, the FSP reaches 10,000 moved to NH by 2030, this will resolve the question positively). This question resolves negatively if no projects have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:34.070Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-22T01:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-03-27T02:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8098/flu-resurgence-in-2021-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As a result of anti-COVID measures, the human influenza virus [essentially](https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/2021/03/26/northern-hemisphere-flu-season-no-showed) [disappeared](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3) [globally](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-has-disappeared-worldwide-during-the-covid-pandemic1/) for the duration of the 2020-2021 flu season.\nThere has [been some concern](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-pandemics-flu-566299bafa4ae199d181deaaa50e8856) that, as a result of relaxed anti-COVID measures and a year's worth of missed immunity, the flu may make a more severe resurgence this year.\nThe US Centers for Disease Control, for example, [advises](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu-season-2021-2022.htm#faq-3714-2-answer),\nReduced population immunity due to lack of flu virus activity since March 2020 could result in an early and possibly severe flu season.\nThe WHO-coordinated Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) tallies surveillance samples of influenza from a global network of laboratories. In recent flu seasons, they have [reported](https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?Hemisphere=Northern&ReportNo=5)† peak weekly positive sample counts of 52981 (week 6 of 2019), 51029 (week 5 of 2020), and 456 (week 1 of 2021) in the Northern Hemisphere.\nHow many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?\nThis will resolve as the maximum number of positive specimens for influenza reported in the Northern Hemisphere in a week between the 30th week of 2021 and the 30th week of 2022 (inclusive) by the GISRS. This value will be retrieved from CSV tables exported from [this webpage](https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?Hemisphere=Northern&ReportNo=5) on the resolution date, or, if that data source is no longer usable, any other WHO publication which contains this information.\n†click the button labelled \"Click here for any week(s) chart\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:39.206Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-17T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-05T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US murder rate be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8100/us-murder-rate-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2018, the USA had a [murder rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate) of 4.96 per 100,000 inhabitants. The United States experience a [surge in murder in 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/us/fbi-murders-2020-cities.html) after the [unrest following the death of George Floyd](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-policing-murder-rate/2021/06/26/e37c38fc-d4fd-11eb-ae54-515e2f63d37d_story.html), a trend [which continued into 2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/upshot/murder-rise-2020.html). The murder rate was measured at [6.5 murders per 100,000 inhabitants](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-s-government-can-solve-the-arab-crime-epidemic-or-become-one-of-its-victims-1.10243345), not as high as the [peak of around 10](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/upshot/murder-rise-2020.html).\nWhat will the US murder rate be in 2030?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US murder rate per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030, as reported by the [Federal Bureau of Investigation](https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/murder), or another reliable source if necessary.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:44.447Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-09-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8101/lapid-pm-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Yair Lapid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yair_Lapid) is Israel's Foreign Minister. He formed the [current government of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-sixth_government_of_Israel) but allowed Naftali Bennett to be Prime Minister first. Lapid is scheduled to become Prime Minister in 2023 in a rotation agreement. The government may collapse before that date. Lapid's liberal, secular, Zionist, and pro two-state solution [Yesh Atid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesh_Atid) party has performed [well](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election) in Israeli opinion polls, and so Lapid could become Prime Minister even if the government collapses before the rotation agreement takes effect.\nWill Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if Lapid becomes Prime Minister of Israel before January 1, 2030 as reported by reliable media outlets.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:50.129Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8102/times-university-ranking-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2021, the University of St Andrews placed first in the UK on the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022. This was the first time in the guide's 30-year history that neither Oxford nor Cambridge placed first. [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-univers…](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-university-rankings-revealed-the-times-league-table-dbxtwgm70)\nWill a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?\nThis question will resolve positive if neither Oxford nor Cambridges places first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023. It resolves negative if Oxford or Cambridge place first. It will resolve ambiguously if the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide is discontinued. \nThe ranking will be published in late September 2022. Positive resolution will be ascertained by the official publication of the ranking on [https://www.thetimes.co.uk/](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:36:55.282Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-30T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. Indeed, the questions were framed as partly intending to get at extinction risk. But how likely is extinction, given a 95% population loss? \n(See also [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100), [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/), and a soon-to-be-released question intended to get at the likelihood of unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse) given a 95% population loss.)\nWill extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million by 2100 and, within 20 years of the population falling below that level, there are no longer any living humans. The extinction could occur at the exact same time as the initial population decline (if some event instantly causes extinction), gradually over the course of 20 years, or anywhere in between.\nThe question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100 but extinction doesn't occur within 20 years. The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:00.605Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any type of dog have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8104/a-30-year-canine-life-expectancy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While fighting diseases has long been a major end-goal in biological research, the pursuit of life extension in general has more recently been given serious attention and resources. To what degree will these efforts extend to pets?\nSuch research and even clinical testing is already underway at biotechnology companies such as [Rejuvenate Bio](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/) and [Loyal](https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2021/07/06/dog-aging-loyal-longevity-fund-celine-hailoua.html), and at the NIH-funded [Dog Aging Project](https://dogagingproject.org/). Research efforts are being boosted not only by demand for improved pet health, but also because these therapies are stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps.\nA 30-year life expectancy at birth is roughly double the highest expectancy of any current dog breed. This would not necessarily require heritable alterations of existing breeds, just any genetic, medical, lifestyle, and other changes that result in a breed or smaller subgroup of dog living to 30 years on average.\nMedian predictions for related Metaculus questions on human longevity suggest [rapid](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) [progress](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/) that could delay aging indefinitely to occur around a century from now, at which time lifespan may have increased by [a few decades](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/) from today’s level. However, there is huge variance in those predictions.\nWhen will any type of dog have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more?\nThis question resolves when a reputable source such as a veterinary association, kennel club, or scientific review paper lists the average life expectancy at birth of any dog group as 30 or higher.\nIf a life expectancy range is given, its midpoint must be at least 30 years. Wording indicating a maximum such as “can live to be N” or “lifespan” do not count. The figure must be based on empirical survival times of the dog group, but the resolution date is the date when an organization publishes a report on a dog breed's lifespan, not an earlier time such as when the dogs were born. The resolving source must not be an organization that directly participated in the efforts that attained the 30-year mark. The life expectancy must apply to dogs available to the public as pets. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:05.783Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-10-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. [Another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) asks how likely extinction is within 20 years of such a population decline. This question is intended as an imperfect proxy for the chance of another type of existential catastrophe: Unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse). \n(See also [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/).)\nWill human population size recover to 5b by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400m without extinction occurring within 20 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million sometime before 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years of that population decline, and the population recovers to >5 billion people sometime by the year 3000 (whether or not it remains >5 billion in the year 3000). The question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years, and the population remains below 5 billion from then till the year 3000 (whether this involves extinction or not, and regardless of what happens after 3000). The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100 or if extinction occurs within 20 years of such a population fall.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \nAs stated on [another question about such extreme events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nFor simplicity, this question will not attempt to distinguish truly unrecoverable collapses from \"merely\" those in which no recover occurs until after 3000 and will not attempt to consider any dimensions of collapse or recovery other than population size. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:10.961Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8106/senolytics-for-pets-and-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/) asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are [being developed for dogs](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/), with the benefit of serving as stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps. Will this role apply to senolytics too?\nWill a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?\nSimilar to the linked question’s criterion, “an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells”. This function must be verified by a reputable third party, such as the FDA or major medical journals. An impact on lifespan need not be demonstrated for either the animal or the human therapy.\nIf a therapy for animals is sold before a human therapy is approved and sold, but the animal therapy is only verified by a third party afterwards, the question will still resolve positively. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:16.147Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8110/saudi-israel-normalization-if-iran-bomb/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.\nWill Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?\nIf [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively or ambiguously, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:31.628Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8118/solana-stays-a-top-10-cryptocurrency-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Solana is a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency that gained significantly in popularity (and market cap) in 2021 due to its high transaction capacity.\nAt time of writing (1/2022), it is the #7 cryptocurrency by market cap – [$43b USD](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/) – per [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/). For reference, the #10 cryptocurrency is [Polkadot](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/polkadot-new/) (DOT), with $25b USD market cap.\nWill Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on Dec 31, 2022?\nPer [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/), Solana (SOL) is ranked within the top-10 cryptocurrencies, as determined by market cap on Dec 31, 2022.\nIf Solana drops below the top-10 at some point before Dec 31, 2022, but is within the top-10 at time of resolution on Dec 31, 2022, then this question still resolves positively. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:36.785Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8127/nuclear-detonation-on-a-capital-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear conflict could involve detonations on capital cities, whether as part of [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targeting (because capitals often contain militarily relevant targets) or as part of [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting . The likelihood of detonations on capital cities has substantial implications for estimates of just how harmful a nuclear conflict would be, in part because capitals are often especially densely populated, such that detonations on them could lead to large death tolls and substantial amounts of smoke being lofted into the atmosphere (potentially contributing to [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects; see also [Rodriguez, 2019](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_counterforce_targeting)).\nWill there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there is at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city. It resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 but none of the detonations meet that criterion. It resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation after this question opens and before 2024.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:52.256Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8128/smoke-plumes-reach-stratosphere/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One factor affecting the likelihood and severity of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) is the proportion of the smoke produced due to fires started by nuclear detonations that would reach the stratosphere. This is related to the question of how frequently fires in general produce smoke that reaches the stratosphere. [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777) write: \nFirestorms were also observed in World War II and lofted material to high altitudes (see Penner et al., 1986). Moreover, numerous conflagrations in forest fires with fuel densities similar to those assumed by Reisner et al. have produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere (e.g., Peterson et al., 2018). In 2017 a fire in British Columbia produced a stratospheric smoke pall that was observed by satellites for 8 months (Yu et al., 2019). Aircraft studies have shown that debris from recent fires is common in the lower stratosphere (Ditas et al., 2018).\nWill at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 31-3-2023, at least two credible sources report that, between the opening of this question and 31-12-2022, at least one fire produced smoke plumes that reached into the stratosphere. \nThese fires can have natural or anthropogenic causes.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:37:57.482Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](http://%28https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/%29) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that Iran has enough fissile material to make at least 1 warhead (whether or not that warhead has actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform. \nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on best available evidence at the time, or resolve ambiguously.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:02.611Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8130/north-korea-possess-material-for-100-warheads/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nBefore 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?\nAs of September 28, 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that North Korea has enough fissile material to make 45 warheads. This question will resolve positively if, anytime before 2024, FAS states that they think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads (whether or not those warheads have actually been assembled).\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from [the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/).\nFor positive resolution, the mid-point of the estimate needs to be at or above 100. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce approximately 100 warheads\" or \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 80-120 warheads\" would count. Statements such as \"we think it is likely that North Korea has enough fissile material to produce 90-100 warheads\" would not count. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:07.862Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2024 is larger than one hundred. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2024, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2024. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nResolution criteria will come from credible sources as of January 31, 2024.\nSee also\n---[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/) \nn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:13.002Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8132/staff-at-nuclear-risk-organizations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nSeveral of the largest philanthropic funders of work related to nuclear risk have stopped or reduced their funding for such work or will do so soon (Bender, 2021; Wilson, 2021). [This includes the MacArthur Foundation](https://www.macfound.org/programs/nuclear/strategy), which has been [one of the largest philanthropic funders in this space](https://web.archive.org/web/20200814041801/https://peaceandsecurityindex.org/year/2017/issues/nuclear-issues/). These Arms Control Association, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund are among the organizations which have nuclear risk as one of their focus areas and which have received major grants from MacArthur. This question therefore asks about their staffing as one way of shedding light on the broader question of how much, if at all, changes in the nuclear risk funding landscape will affect the operations of various organizations and projects.\nHow many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of people listed in the Staff column of [the Arms Control Association's About page](https://www.armscontrol.org/about), the [Bulletin's Staff page](https://thebulletin.org/about-us/staff/), and [Ploughshares' team page](https://ploughshares.org/about-us/staff), put together, on December 31, 2023. If on that date the organizations still exist but list staff on a different page, that other page will be used instead.\nFor simplicity, this will just be a headcount: no attempt will be made to account for how many hours per week each staff member devotes to their work for these organizations, for whether the person really is a \"staff member\" or is (for example) a nonresident fellow, or for whether the person focuses on nuclear risk issues.\nNote that, as of September 19, 2021, this method would indicate these organizations have 15, 27, and 16 staff, respectively, for a total of 58 staff.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:18.157Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8133/macarthur-challenge-grants/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nSeveral of the largest philanthropic funders of work related to nuclear risk have stopped or reduced their funding for such work or will do so soon ([Bender, 2021](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/washington-arms-controllers-nuclear-weapons-500126); [Wilson, 2021](https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/561786-why-nuclear-arms-control-is-dead)). This includes the MacArthur Foundation, which has been [one of the largest philanthropic funders in this space](https://web.archive.org/web/20200814041801/https://peaceandsecurityindex.org/year/2017/issues/nuclear-issues/), but [now says](https://www.macfound.org/programs/nuclear/strategy): \n\"In 2021, [...] our focus shifted to implementing a three-year, roughly $30 million capstone investment. At the conclusion of the capstone grants in 2023, we will exit the nuclear field.\"\nMacArthur's currently listed 2021 grants can be found [here](https://www.macfound.org/grants/?topic=101157&year_approved__min=2021&year_approved__max=2021).\nWhat will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?\nThis question will resolve as the total size of all grants shown for the years 2022 and 2023 [in the \"Nuclear Challenges\" category on MacArthur's Grant Search page](https://www.macfound.org/grants/?program=102178), on January 31, 2024. If there is reliable information that grants have been made and this page is out of date, then that information will be used for the resolution.\nUnits are in millions of dollars.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:23.304Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8134/deadly-clash-between-india-and-china-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Another [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/) asks about a potential conflict before 2024.\nThis question asks what might happen by 2023.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2023?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2022-12-31 UTC.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:28.971Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8135/2-states-increase-nuclear-arsenals-by-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nCurrently, nine states possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each if those states as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n---Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads \n---US: 5,550 nuclear warheads \n---China: 350 nuclear warheads \n---France: 290 nuclear warheads \n---UK: 225 nuclear warheads \n---Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads \n---India: 160 nuclear warheads \n---Israel: 90 nuclear warheads \n---North Korea: sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\") \nWill at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the FAS website shows, at any time between 2021-10-01 and 2023-12-31, that two or more states each have arsenals 25% higher than the estimates given above (i.e., 25% higher than FAS's estimates from May 2021). This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If a state that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gains an arsenal of at least one assembled nuclear weapon, that would be counted as a state increasing its stockpile size by at least 25%.\nIn the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear stockpile\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not.\nIf FAS publish no estimates during the whole of 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nNo attempt will be made to distinguish actual increases in arsenal sizes from increases in estimates due to FAS changing their estimation methods or learning new information about what was already true in May 2021. This is mostly for simplicity, but also partly because some implications are the same whether (a) actual increases occur or (b) our current information is an underestimate. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:34.149Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8138/2500-nuclear-weapons-ready-at-short-notice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice would probably increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict occurring in the first place. Finally, changes in the number of nuclear weapons that are ready for use on short notice can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.\nWill more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 2,500. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This excludes weapons that are (a) deployed but not on high alert, (b) in reserve/nondeployed, or (c) retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). If they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:39.283Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated China as having 350 nuclear warheads, making its stockpile the third largest in the world, though far smaller than that of Russia (6,257) and the US (5,550). \nThe Pentagon is [reported](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2020/09/01/china-planning-to-double-nuclear-arsenal-pentagon-says/) to estimate that China will double its arsenal during the 2020s.\nWill China have at least 420 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) China is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 420. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons, and warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf FAS do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:44.455Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-20T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8140/india-have-200-nuclear-warheads-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAs of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated India as having 160 nuclear warheads.\nWill India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear warheads (fission or thermonuclear) India is estimated to possess as of the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 exceeds 200. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It includes warheads that are deployed, in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).\nIf they do not publish relevant estimates anytime in 2023, they will be contacted in the final quarter of 2023 to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively or negatively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:49.581Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8141/individual-city-hit-3-times-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Some people (e.g., [Rodriguez, 2019a](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FfxrwBdBDCg9YTh69/how-many-people-would-be-killed-as-a-direct-result-of-a-us#The_number_of_deaths_caused_by_nuclear_detonations_in_civilian_targets), [2019b](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_amount_of_smoke_generated_by_nuclear_detonations)) have argued that: \n--- \nIt's plausible or likely that nuclear conflict would involve some major cities each being hit by multiple detonations (at least if cities are targeted are at all)\n--- \nIf that happens, it could substantially increase the immediate fatalities and nuclear winter effects from nuclear conflict (since second, third, etc. detonations on cities like New York would have much larger effects than first detonations on much smaller targets)\nThe likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities could also be seen as an imperfect proxy for the expected total scale of a nuclear exchange, since such multiple detonations are probably more likely if large-scale [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting occurs.\nAltogether, a higher likelihood of multiple detonations on individual major cities would push in favor of (1) working to reduce nuclear risk and (2) doing so by reducing the chance of large-scale conflicts or countervalue targeting.\nWill an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?\nThe question conditions on there being at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over a city after this question opens and before 2024. That is, it resolves ambiguously if that condition is not met.\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, for at least one individual city anywhere in the world, 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of that city. For example, it would resolve positively if there are 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations on New York, and/or 3 or more on Moscow, and/or 3 or more on Beijing. \nThe question resolves negatively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation on or over any city, but there are not 3 or more such detonations on or over any single city, even if there are 3 or more such detonations spread out across multiple cities. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of any nation's capital city\".\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, it does not matter whether a strike was intended to kill civilians or to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a city.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:54.700Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8142/fy21-ndaa-study-publicly-available-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Section 3171 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 [states](https://www.nationalacademies.org/ocga/public-laws/william-m-mac-thornberry-national-defense-authorization-act-for-fiscal-year-2021):\n\"The Administrator for Nuclear Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, shall seek to enter into an agreement with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine under which the National Academies conduct a study on the environmental effects of nuclear war. \n[...] Not later than 18 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, the National Academies shall submit to the Administrator, the Secretary, the Director, and the congressional defense committees a report on the study under subsection (a).\n[...] The report under paragraph (1) shall be submitted in unclassified form but may include a classified annex.\"\nThe bill was signed into law on 2021-01-01, meaning that \"18 months after the enactment of this act\" would make this report due by 2022-07-01. \nAs [noted by the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-04/news-briefs/congress-mandates-studies-nuclear-war):\n\"The new report would be among the most significant of its kind by the National Academies since its 640-page examination The Medical Implications of Nuclear War, published in 1986.\"\nIt seems plausible that such a report could substantially inform our understanding of nuclear risk and substantially influence policymaking in this area, if the report is indeed written and made publicly available.\nWill the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2023-01-01, the National Academies publicly releases a report that is framed as fulfilling the mandate from Section 3171 of the FY21 NDAA and is indeed substantially focused on possible environmental effects of nuclear war.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:38:59.859Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-17T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it is useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve two or more attacking countries, rather than just one.\nWill the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024:\n1-- \nThere are one or more offensive nuclear detonations of nuclear weapons owned by some country, and\n2-- \nWithin 30 days of the first of those detonations, there is at least one offensive detonation of another country's nuclear weapon, against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). For simplicity, no attempt will be made to account for whether the detonation against the country who owned the previously detonated nuclear weapon(s) is truly a \"retaliation\" or even whether it's by a country directly harmed by the original detonation(s); it just needs to occur within 30 days.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country before 2024.\nRelated Questions\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:05.046Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)\nWill >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, there has been at least one offensive nuclear detonation of nuclear weapons owned by each of at least 3 countries. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon owned by each of China, North Korea, and the US are offensively detonated, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation a nuclear weapon owned by any country before 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nSee also\n--- \n[Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDifferent countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:10.221Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it'd be useful to have a clearer sense of the likelihood that nuclear conflict would involve many attacking and attacked countries, rather than just one or two. \n(For example, the likelier it is that a conflict involving North Korea would escalate to involve a conflict between the US and either China or Russia, the more it makes sense to prioritize reducing the chance of such a conflict or such escalation, rather than focusing more strongly on only conflicts that start out involving multiple states with large arsenals.)\nWill >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, at least 3 countries have each had at least one offensive nuclear detonation by another country occur on or over a point that is within their territories. For example, it would resolve positively if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated offensively on or over the territories of each of China, North Korea, and the US, for a total of at least 3 offensive detonations. This could occur as part of one conflict or as part of multiple, separate conflicts.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon between this question opening and the start of 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nDetonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8147/conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDifferent countries count as different countries for this question even if they are part of a single military alliance (e.g., NATO), as you would expect.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:15.338Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8147/conditional-2-of-russia-us-china-detonate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would differ hugely in how harmful they'd be in the near-term and in how much existential risk they create. In particular, scenarios involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China nuclear conflict may be especially worth prioritizing, as those three states have the largest nuclear forces and relations between them (especially US-China) also seem important for other issues. \nIt therefore seems important to have a clearer sense of how likely it is that conflicts that do not start between those states would escalate to involve them. The more likely such escalation is, the more it would be worth also prioritizing reducing the chance of those other scenarios or of an escalation from them to a scenario involving Russia-US, Russia-China, or US-China conflicts.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict by 2024 that doesn't start between 2 of Russia, the US, and China, will 2 of those countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024?\nThis question conditions on an offensive nuclear detonation occurring between this question opening and 2024 and the first such detonation not being (a) of a weapon owned by Russia, the US, or China, and (b) on or over the territory of one of the others of those states. For example, this condition would be met if an Indian nuclear weapon is offensively detonated over Pakistani territory or if a Chinese nuclear weapon is detonated over Japanese territory. If this condition isn't met, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and, also by 2024, at least two of the three countries Russia, the US, or China have offensively detonated at least one nuclear weapon each. Those detonations can include, but don't have to include, the detonation that met the previously specified condition. (For example, this question would resolve positively if by 2024 China offensively detonates against Japan and then the US offensively detonates against China, or if India offensively detonates against anyone and then both China and the US offensively detonate against anyone.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions). \nRelated Questions\n--- \n[Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8145/conditional-2-countries-detonate-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated or or over their territories by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8146/conditional-2-countries-attacked-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8144/retaliation-next-offensive-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8131/100-nuclear-detonations-by-2024/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over a point that is within the territory of a country. \nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:20.583Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-09T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Another question asks [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/) This question focuses on the possibility of a deadly clash by 2024 between Russia and at least one NATO country, without the US being involved.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russia forces and identifiable forces of any NATO country other than the US.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n--- \nThe question resolves negatively if the above criteria are not met for a clash between Russia and a NATO country other than the US or if the criteria are met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (even if, before or afterwards, the criteria are met for a conflict between Russia and a NATO country other than the US)\nSee also\n---[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:25.759Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8150/3000-nonstrategic-weapons-at-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf):\n\"While there are several ways to distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, most analysts consider nonstrategic weapons to be shorter-range delivery systems with lower-yield warheads that might attack troops or facilities on the battlefield. \n[These weapons] have not been limited by past U.S.-Russian arms control agreements. Some analysts argue such limits would be of value, particularly in addressing Russia’s greater numbers of these types of weapons. Others have argued that the United States should expand its deployments of these weapons, in both Europe and Asia, to address new risks of war conducted under a nuclear shadow.\"\nThe Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273). It's therefore not clear precisely how many nonstrategic weapons there are, but it's clear that it's below 3000.\nThe [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) states](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273) that \"Since the end of the Cold War, inventories have declined by an order of magnitude from 20,000–30,000 to about 2,500 today\" (as of 2019). FAS estimate that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273).\nHow many such weapons will be stockpiled and deployed by various countries in future may also have effects on - and serve as a proxy for - proliferation risk, the chance of nuclear war occurring, and what interventions would most effectively reduce nuclear risk.\nWill there be >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the most recent estimates available on 12-31-23 from the FAS, across various sources, indicate that there are >3000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons on 12-31-23. (One way this could occur is if multiple [\"Nuclear Notebook\"](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/) columns on individual countries' nuclear forces each give estimates of those countries' numbers of nonstrategic nuclear warheads, with these estimates summing to >3000.) This includes warheads that are deployed, are in reserve/nondeployed, or retired but still intact. \nIf FAS do not publish in 2023 estimates of the number of nonstrategic weapons possessed in total or at least by the US and Russia, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of whether this question should resolve positively. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:30.968Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.’](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. \nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the US.\nWill there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-01. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:36.273Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-us-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ten years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.’ The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called ‘Green Propellants.’ A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns or environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project lifecycle, are considered to be ‘green’ – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine, but fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green’ fuels in the framework of Space propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. More detailed technical definitions can be referenced in the these academic articles: [Article 1](http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-71f98242-5541-4f80-a02b-8b601f7fe31b), [Article 2](https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/1/20/htm#B3-aerospace-08-00020).\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\nSee also [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/eu-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/) on a similar ban for the EU.\nWill the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves positively if any branch of the US federal government makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before 2025-01-20. It is not necessary for this proposal to recieve a vote or become law to resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:41.432Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-10T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China and Japan were last at war during World War II.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Japanese and Chinese forces.\n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:51.732Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See [the Wikipedia article on the 2019–2021 Persian Gulf crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Persian_Gulf_crisis) for some context relevant to this question.\nWill there be a US-Iran war by 2024?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-Iran war is defined as the US and Iran collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Iran or between Iran and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe will use [the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies' definition of battle-related deaths](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nRelated questions\n--- \n[What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7881/critical-conflicts-for-us-by-2023/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/)\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3462/will-there-be-a-us-iran-war-in-2020/)\n--- \n[US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3451/us-invades-and-attempts-a-regime-change-in-iran-in-2020/)\n--- \n[How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3453/how-many-cyberattacks-by-iran-against-us-govt-systems-in-q1-2020/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:39:56.896Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-07T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average US labor force participation rate for the decade 2040-2049?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8163/labour-force-participation-rate-in-the-2040s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Labor force participation rate uses the definition described by the OECD: the labor force divided by the total working-age population, where the 'working age' population refers to people aged 15 to 64.\nMany people think that automation will reduce the number of jobs available. This would push people either into unemployment or perhaps out of participation in the workforce altogether. If some predictions are borne out, we could have substantially fewer people working. This has all sorts of implications. What sort of social support will people need if they cannot find a job? If work is redundant, is it necessary to have an economy that incentivizes work? Geopolitically, right now many countries (e.g., China, Japan) are worried about their aging workforces and low birthrates. Will automation make labor redundant in the end anyway?\n\"Unemployed\" is a slightly different category which refers to people who want a job but do not have one. \"Labor force participation\" refers to the number of working people divided by the total number of working aged people.\nSee recent participation rates here: [https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor…](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm)\nWhat will be the average US labor force participation rate for the decade 2040-2049?\nThis resolves to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Civilian Labor force participation rate, taking the average of all years from 2040 to 2049 inclusive, restricting age range to between 15 to 64 inclusive.\nIf the Bureau does not publicly provide precisely that age range - for instance, if it only provides statistics for 16 year or older - then the nearest publicly provided data applies.\nAppropriate data that provides for yearly or better measurements or estimates of the labor force participation rate should be used.\nIf the US Bureau of Labor no longer exists or does not collect appropriate statistics, this contract resolves to other relevant sources, prioritizing sources within US government, then intergovernmental sources like the OECD, and then appropriate private US-based and international sources.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:07.308Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8164/yangs-forward-party-to-take-off/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/573653-yangs-new-party-will-be-called-the-forward-party),\nFormer presidential candidate Andrew Yang's new third party will be called \"The Forward Party,\" he reportedly says in his upcoming book. \nBusiness Insider reported that the name was revealed near the end of Yang's book entitled \"Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.\"\nThe book also details the principles that will guide Yang's party, including \"ranked-choice voting and open primaries,\" \"fact-based governance\" and \"human-centered capitalism.\" It will also promote a \"universal basic income,\" an idea that helped him gain some traction in the 2020 presidential primary. \nYang also criticizes the \"duopoly\" of America's two-party system which he claimed was not made to handle the \"cascade of crises\" that the U.S. has recently endured, Business Insider said.\nWill Yang's Forward Party take off by February 1st 2029?\nWill a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if any member of Congress, or the president, is at some point while holding office a member of the Forward Party before February 1st 2029. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nCredible media will be used for resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:13.419Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-08T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a high frame rate film be awarded an Academy Award?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8166/high-frame-rate-film-receives-academy-award/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as [Youtube](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouTube#Quality_and_formats), [Netflix](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meridian_%28film%29) and [Vimeo](https://vimeo.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360056550451-Video-and-audio-compression-guidelines) already have the ability to playback content in 60 FPS.\nSome movies have been released in 48 FPS, such as [The Hobbit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hobbit_%28film_series%29), and some even in 120 FPS, such as [Gemini Man](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_Man_%28film%29) or (parts of) [Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Lynn%27s_Long_Halftime_Walk_%28film%29), but none of these have had widespread acclaim by critics. One way to measure how much critics enjoy a film is the [Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Awards) (known as the Oscars), which nominates and gives awards to films and directors & actors of films.\nWhen will a high frame rate film be awarded an Academy Award?\nWe consider High Frame Rate (HFR) to be 59.5 or higher FPS. A film will qualify even if it is not HFR for the entirety of the film.\nThis question will resolve when an Academy Award is given to a movie that is released in HFR before it is nominated. The award must be in the categories of Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor or Best Actress. When the award is given to a person, such as \"Best Actor\", then the movie they performed in to get the award must have been released in HFR.\nA movie is \"released in HFR\" if the general public can view the movie in HFR format, whether this is online streaming, in theater, on blue-ray, or otherwise.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:18.638Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8169/256-bit-ecc-to-be-broken/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elliptic-curve cryptography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-curve_cryptography) is a public-key cryptography system which is based on the difficulty of solving the discrete logarithm problem over elliptic curves. Today it is used in many cryptographic applications, however it is known that due to the efficiency of Shor's algorithm for finding hidden subgroups it is not particularly quantum resistant. It would only take a small quantum computer with a memory of a few thousand qubits (with suitable error tolerance, etc.) to be able to break 256 bit elliptic curve cryptography. It is also possible that there will be a breakthrough in classical algorithms for finding discrete logarithms and 256 bit elliptic curve cryptography will be broken that way.\nRegardless of the precise sequence of events leading to it, this question asks the following:\nWhen will 256 bit ECC become insecure?\nThis question resolves to the date of an announcement by NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organizations recommending the discontinuation of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure. If this doesn't occur by 2100-01-01, the question will resolve as >2100-01-01.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:23.837Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2048-03-29T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8170/best-bound-on-average-rank-of-elliptic-curves/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational numbers, or equivalently it's the dimension of the rational vector space we get by tensoring the group of rational points with over . Intuitively, it is a measure of the \"size\" of the collection of rational points on an elliptic curve.\nIn this question we're interested in the quantity\nwhere denotes the height of an elliptic curve, denotes its rank and the sums range over all elliptic curves over the rational numbers satisfying the given height condition.\nIt is a folklore conjecture that , but currently the best available upper bound on is .\nWhen will there be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves?\nThis question resolves to the date when a valid proof is given that for some real . The last breakthrough before this question opened was a [proof](https://annals.math.princeton.edu/2015/181-2/p04) given by Bhargava and Shankar in 2015 which established the bound which is currently the best bound available. If this doesn't occur until the resolution date of the question, the question resolves as >.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:28.983Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a new record for the best proven lower bound on the maximum possible rank of an elliptic curve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8171/maximum-rank-of-elliptic-curves/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [rank of an elliptic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rank_of_an_elliptic_curve) is the rank of the group of rational points of an elliptic curve defined over the rational numbers, or equivalently it's the dimension of the rational vector space we get by tensoring the group of rational points with over . Intuitively, it is a measure of the \"size\" of the collection of rational points on an elliptic curve.\nWhen will there be a new record for the best proven lower bound on the maximum possible rank of an elliptic curve?\nThis question resolves to the date when a valid proof is given that there is an elliptic curve with rank strictly greater than . The current best lower bound on the maximum is , which has been proven by Noam Elkies in 2006. If this doesn't occur until the resolution date of the question, the question resolves as >.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:34.160Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2044-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8175/non-strategic-weapons-deployed-at-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf):\n\"While there are several ways to distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, most analysts consider nonstrategic weapons to be shorter-range delivery systems with lower-yield warheads that might attack troops or facilities on the battlefield. \n[These weapons] have not been limited by past U.S.-Russian arms control agreements. Some analysts argue such limits would be of value, particularly in addressing Russia’s greater numbers of these types of weapons. Others have argued that the United States should expand its deployments of these weapons, in both Europe and Asia, to address new risks of war conducted under a nuclear shadow.\"\nThe [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) states](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273) that \"Since the end of the Cold War, inventories have declined by an order of magnitude from 20,000–30,000 to about 2,500 today\" (as of 2019). As of 2021, FAS [estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that there are currently 100 deployed nonstrategic nuclear warheads (all deployed by the US). FAS also estimate that the numbers of nonstrategic warheads possessed (but mostly not deployed) by the US and Russia are [~230](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2021/) and [~1912](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/), and [state that Pakistan, China, India, Israel, and North Korea have \"nuclear weapons that would be considered tactical if they were part of the Russian or US arsenals\"](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1654273). \nHow many such weapons will be stockpiled and deployed by various countries in future may also have effects on - and serve as a proxy for - proliferation risk, the chance of nuclear war occurring, and what interventions would most effectively reduce nuclear risk.\nHow many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves as the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23 of the total number of nonstrategic nuclear weapons deployed across all countries. This excludes nonstrategic weapons that are (a) in reserve/nondeployed or (b) retired but still intact. It also excludes strategic weapons. \nIf FAS do not publish relevant estimates in the final quarter of 2023, they will be contacted to request that they provide a judgement of what number this question should resolve as. If they do not provide such a judgement following that request, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\nThis question will resolve no later than Jan 31, 2024 based on the best available information at that time, which may include an ambiguous resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:39.329Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-08T13:17:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-31T17:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will The Elder Scrolls VI be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8176/tes-vi-release-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Elder Scrolls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls) is a series of action role-playing video games primarily developed by Bethesda Game Studios and published by Bethesda Softworks. The series focuses on free-form gameplay in a detailed open world. Morrowind, Oblivion and Skyrim all won Game of the Year awards from multiple outlets. The series has sold more than 58 million copies worldwide.\n[An official announcement teaser](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkFdqqyI8y4) for The Elder Scrolls VI, the next major installment of the series, was shown back in 2018, with little in the way of official news since.\nWhen will The Elder Scrolls VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in The Elder Scrolls series (e.g. not a remaster or handheld game), the successor to TES V: Skyrim, is released for sale to the public in at least 1 country. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:44.746Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T10:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8183/cryptid-discovery-shakes-up-science-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Across the world, people report seeing unidentified or out-of-place animals: those unknown to science, thought to be long extinct, or with strange abilities, behaviours or physiologies. \n\"Nessie\", \"Bigfoot\" and the \"Yowie\" are iconic figures that many people want to exist. More prosaically, people report seeing [Tasmanian tigers](https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-24/tasmanian-tiger-thylacine-sighting-debunked-pademelon/13186806) (extinct since the 1930s) as well as [big cats in the Australian bush](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-13/could-the-lithgow-panther-actually-exist/9116232).\nSometimes these observations serve an ideological purpose, as with [creationists who say reports of dinosaurs and other prehistoric animals present in the current day or recent history challenge the theory of natural selection](https://theconversation.com/at-the-evangelical-creation-museum-dinosaurs-lived-alongside-humans-and-the-world-is-6-000-years-old-142145). \nOther times they are more or less obvious hoaxes, or clear examples of people fooling themselves. \nCounter examples often given by cryptozoologists are the okapi, once considered a mythical jungle horse by Europeans; the coelacanth, a \"living fossil\"; the giant squid, which might explain \"kraken\" sightings; and the platypus, a seemingly impossible egg-laying mammal. \nNotably, these discoveries are decades or centuries old, and half of them are ocean-dwelling. But while Occam's razor, ecology and evolutionary science suggest cryptozoologists are wrong about most cryptids, are they wrong about all of them? \nI have designed the question in this way because I'm interested in questions that resolve positive if any one of many improbable outcomes come true, as a way of allowing for predictions on questions that most people would say are below 1% probability.\nWill a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?\nResolves positive if any of the following are satisfied: \n---One of the following \"extinct\" species is found alive or recently dead: A living Tasmanian tiger, mammoth, passenger pigeon, Steller's sea cow, quagga, dodo or great auk is discovered. \n---Phantom cats: The existence of big cats (Panthera genus, cheetah or cougar) in Australia or Western Europe is confirmed, including evidence of mating in the wild. \n---Bigfoot, yowie or sasquatch: Great apes are discovered that are native to anywhere other than Africa or South-East Asia. This can be an existing species or an entirely new one, as long as it is not considered to have been recently (last 50 years) introduced to the area. \n---Loch Ness monster and friends: A new species of megafauna (adults routinely exceed 45 kilograms) is discovered in Loch Ness, the Okanagan Valley, Lake Manitoba, Lake Ikeda or Lake Kussharo. \n---Mokele-mbembe: A new species of gigantic reptile (adults routinely exceeding 1 tonne) or rhinocerous is discovered in the Congo River Basin. \n---Chupacabra: A new species of vertebrate is discovered in Puerto Rico that is observed killing livestock by drinking their blood. \n---Mongolian death worm: A new species of large invertebrate (adults routinely exceed one foot in length) is discovered in the Gobi Desert. \n---Pterodactyls: A new species is discovered that descends from the Pterosauria clade. \nIn all cases, the test is whether the scientific consensus changes in the face of convincing evidence - for example, DNA or a physical specimen recovered. It is not enough that a minority of scientists in the relevant field are convinced.\nIn the absence of convincing DNA evidence or a physical specimen, scientific consensus will be considered established if more papers arguing for the discovery appear in journals of [SENSE top-ranked publishers (A rating)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rankings_of_academic_publishers#SENSE_rankings) than against over a two-year period, with at least 10 papers appearing total.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:50.007Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have by 11/1/2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8185/rational-animations-subscribers-by-1112023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Rational Animations is a [rationalist/effective altruist Youtube channel](https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations/). In May 2021, it received [a grant from the EA funds](https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/payouts/may-2021-ea-infrastructure-fund-grants). On September 22nd 2021, it released a video about the [grabby aliens model](https://grabbyaliens.com/) from Robin Hanson, amassing over 250,000 views (as of the writing of this question).\nThe channel currently has about 24,200 subscribers.\nHow many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have by 11/1/2023?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers for [the Youtube channel Rational Animations](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg) (or if the channel changes its name, whatever the new channel becomes) on the date November 1st 2023.\nIn case the channel is deleted or removed, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:40:55.233Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender on 2030-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8186/bitcoin-as-legal-tender-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, El Salvador [became the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/el-salvador-buys-400-bitcoin-ahead-of-law-making-it-legal-currency.html) and Brazil is [considering following suit.](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-set-become-legal-payment-154644863.html)\nHow many countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender on 2030-01-01?\nThis question will resolve to the number of United Nations member states that have Bitcoin as legal tender on 2030-01-01, as reported by reliable media outlets.\nIn the case of a significant fork in Bitcoin's code, this question will recognize the highest-valued coin which contains more than 90% of the blockchain record (from 2009 to 2021) as the original \"Bitcoin\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:41:00.442Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8187/correct-state-of-ai-report-2021-predictions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2021](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1bwJDRC777rAf00Drthi9yT2c9b0MabWO5ZlksfvFzx8/edit#slide=id.gf171287819_0_165) was published October 12, 2021 and contains 7 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nTransformers replace recurrent networks to learn world models with which RL agents surpass human performance in large and rich game environments.\n2-- \nASML's market cap reaches $500B.\n3-- \nAnthropic publishes on the level of GPT, Dota, AlphaGo to establish itself as a third pole of AGI research.\n4-- \nA wave of consolidation in AI semiconductors with at least one of Graphcore, Cerebras, SambaNova, Groq, or Mythic being acquired by a large technology company or major semiconductor incumbent.\n5-- \nSmall transformers + CNN hybrid models match current SOTA on ImageNet top-1 accuracy (CoAtNet-7, 90.88%, 2.44B params) with 10x fewer parameters.\n6-- \nDeepMind releases a major research breakthrough in the physical sciences.\n7-- \nThe JAX framework grows from 1% to 5% of monthly repos created as measured by PapersWithCode.\nHow many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?\nOnly predictions which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2022 Report is published. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:41:05.589Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-26T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8189/global-interest-in-vertical-farming/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Interest in the practice of farming vertically has steadily grown over time. While vertical farming has the potential to drastically alter the landscape of agricultural practices, it has not yet come fully to fruition.\nIn their 2019 paper [Vertical farming: a summary of approaches to growing skywards](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14620316.2019.1574214?casa_token=rO77bLxhhwQAAAAA%3AugYa4bllIAz19SnNOLNBFAmcPbAScMOzfOACVc5wcnuI2pob_FghphwxwxfD8k-f8rGSlfQ2rQvFfQ&), Beacham et al. succinctly introduce vertical farming in the context of modern agriculture:\nAgricultural production is experiencing increased pressure to generate larger yields as the global population rises and demand for food increases. By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach 9.7 billion, with 70% of people living in urban environments (United Nations, 2015). In addition, agricultural land may be lost through the expansion of urban areas and infrastructure develop- ment (Lotze-Campen et al., 2008), potentially leading to shortages of farmland (Corvalan, Hales, & McMichael, 2005; Healy & Rosenberg, 2013; Thomaier et al., 2015). This scale of change may necessitate the investigation of novel food production methods as both the amount of and yield achievable from conventional farming of agricultural land is limited.\nWith the aim of increasing crop yield per unit area of land, the concept of Vertical Farming (VF) is currently gathering momentum (Agrilyst, 2017). By farming upwards rather than outwards, this technique aims to reduce pressure on traditional agricultural land and, by incorporating soil-free growing systems, is particularly attractive for use in urban areas.\nThe average global interest in vertical farming can be sourced fromGoogle Trends (data as of September 7th, 2021). \nYear Average Global Interest \n2006\n4.906\n2007\n9.712\n2008\n20.654\n2009\n22.538\n2010\n30.904\n2011\n41.769\n2012\n46.358\n2013\n52.846\n2014\n46.750\n2015\n51.596\n2016\n49.135\n2017\n59.226\n2018\n66.250\n2019\n67.096\n2020\n66.481\n2021\n69.343\nAs vertical farming becomes more widely adopted, it is intriguing to see how people's interest in it will change over time, so we may ask:\nWhat will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 global interest in vertical farming?\nThis question resolves as the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest for the search term [\"vertical farming\"](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=vertical%20farming) on Google Trends.\nThe average global interest for a given year will be computed by summing the interest over time for each week of the year and then dividing that value by 52.\nOn Google Trends, the region is set to \"Worldwide\", the categories to \"All categories\", and the search to \"Web Search\". \nIf Google Trends is unavailable, for any reason, on the resolution date, the resolution will be decided by the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:41:10.772Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 10 countries formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8193/date-when-10-countries-recognize-somaliland/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1991, the [Republic of Somaliland](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/somaliland-horn-africas-breakaway-state) broke away from the Somali Democratic Republic after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government, which was ousted that year. Since the outbreak of the Somali Civil War in 1991, Somaliland has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. The Republic of Somaliland asserts that it is the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. \nDespite 30 years of democratic government and de facto independence, Somaliland has not been formally recognized by any UN member state. Somaliland maintains [representative offices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Somaliland#Diplomatic_representative_offices) in Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Sweden, Italy, the United States, Kenya, the United Kingdom, and Taiwan. Ethiopia, Turkey, Djibouti, the United Kingdom, Denmark, and Taiwan maintain diplomatic offices in Somaliland. However, none of these offices constitutes formal recognition of Somaliland as being independent from Somalia.\nWhen will at least 10 countries formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state?\nThis question will resolve in the affirmative when 10 or more countries that are members, not counting observers or non-member states, of the United Nations formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state, as reported either by reputable media or directly by the foreign ministry (or equivalent department) of the country announcing recognition.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:41:15.972Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-10T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8197/next-labour-10-point-polling-lead/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.\nHaving been out of power for more than a decade, the party [continues to trail the governing Conservative Party in opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election), and [has not held a double-digit lead in the polls for a month since 2013.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013)\nWhen will the UK Labour Party next maintain at least a 10-point polling lead for a month?\nThis question will resolve as the 15th day of the next period of 30 days in which the Labour Party next holds an average lead in opinion polling of at least 10 points, according to [Politico's UK opinion poll aggregator](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/). If this does not happen before 1 January 2025, the question resolves as > 2025.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:41:21.150Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8299/fed-trimming-size-of-asset-portfolio/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the economic lockdown caused by the pandemic include massive bond purchases that make it cheaper for the government and corporations to issue debt, thus providing an important lifeline for financial activity at a time of difficulty. \nThis is creating a massive asset portfolio (“Reserve Bank credit”) that the debt holds, which was at $8.4 trillion as of Sep 29, according to this [release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm). The concern is such steps may contribute to price bubbles in markets and economic overheating due to excessive risk-taking. The opposite concern is that a quick asset selloff may create a market glut, lowering the cost of raising capital for companies.\nWill the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?\nThis resolves positive if, by Jan. 1, 2023, assets held by the Fed, according to estimates published [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm), are below $8 trillion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:17.496Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-10T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8306/us-covid-19-deaths-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US has been struggling to control the COVID-19 pandemic over 2021, with the delta variant composing [>50% of COVID cases since 1 July, 2021](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Delta+variant+%28share%29&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~USA). [120,000 deaths](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-01-02..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~USA) have been attributed to COVID-19 between 2021-07-01 and 2021-10-15. The [pace of vaccinations has slowed](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends_vacctrends-total-daily) from a peak of 3.5 million doses administered daily on 11 April, to an average of 700,000 doses daily between 1 June to 1 October.\nThat said, vaccinations continue steadily. Among the population over 12 years of age (those currently elligible to recieve the vaccine), 77% have recieved at least 1 dose, and the over-65 group has 95.6% with one dose (as of 2021-10-16). The Metaculus Community currently predicts an [87% chance](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7611/date-of-covid-vaccine-for-children-under-12/) that the FDA will approve a vaccine for children under 12 years old by the end of 2021, which may improve the US' herd immunity further.\nWill a new variant of COVID-19 change all this? Is the COVID-19 pandemic waning, or will it rage on?\nHow many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deaths from COVID-19 [reported by the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths|tot_deaths|select), occurring in the year 2022. It will not be the cumulative deaths since 2020-01-23; we will measure deaths reported by 2023-01-01, minus all deaths from 2020-01-23 to 2022-01-01. If the CDC no longer reports this data, Metaculus Admins may approximate this figure with the best available data, at their discretion.\nTo account for delays in reporting data, we will wait until 2023-02-01 to confirm the resolution value. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:23.488Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8307/global-confirmed-covid-19-deaths-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In terms of total deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic has already been more severe in 2021 than 2020. Globally, 1.9 million deaths were reported in 2020, compared to 3 million in 2021 (as of 17 October, 2021). Yet, gradually, the world is deploying COVID-19 vaccinations: taken as entire regions, North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Oceana have seen [53 to 65%](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths|tot_deaths|select) of their entire populations recieve at least one dose of a vaccine (as of 17 October, 2021). Sadly, Africa lags behind, at 7.6% recieving at least one dose.\nHow many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deaths from COVID-19 [reported by Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~OWID_WRL), occurring in the year 2022. It will not be the cumulative deaths since 2020-01-23; we will measure deaths reported by 2023-01-01, minus all deaths from 2020-01-23 to 2022-01-01. If OWID no longer reports this data, Metaculus Admins may approximate this figure with the best available data, at their discretion.\nTo account for delays in reporting data, we will wait until 2023-02-01 to confirm the resolution value. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:28.706Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-28T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8313/sbf-as-the-richest-person-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Sam Bankman-Fried is currently [the richest person in crypto](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/) as well as [the richest person under 30](https://www.forbes.com/video/6275693545001/the-richest-person-under-30-in-the-world/?sh=75f95349128d). He [plans on donating the majority of his wealth to effective charities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried).\nWill Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, by January 1st, 2050, a comment on this Metaculus question links to an archive of the Bloomberg Billionaire Index OR the Forbes real-time list of billionaires indicating that Sam Bankman-Fried was the richest person in the world. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nAcceptable archive sites include [archive.is](http://archive.is) and [archive.org](http://archive.org). However, any archival site that is determined to be trustworthy by Metaculus moderators would also work.\nThis question will resolve at the minimum date of any such archive, if it exists.\n(These resolution criteria are similar to those of [this question about Elon Musk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/) created by [Matthew_Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) in February 2020.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:33.870Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2042-05-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next James Bond be female?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8315/next-james-bond-female/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\nIt is widely understood that No Time To Die will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n---[\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/) \n---[\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/) \nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)\nWill the next James Bond be female?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next action film released by Eon films in the James Bond universe with the main character being a female intelligence officer.\nThis question should retroactively close 1 week before a media report around casting is confirmed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:39.049Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-23T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8319/british-male-life-expectancy-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Office of National Statistics releases single-year life tables each year. These include an \"average period expectation of life\" (i.e., life expectancy). Note these single-year expectancies are different from the main life expectancy estimates, which are based on 3-year averages. You can read more about how these are calculated [here](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020) and data for previous years [here](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/singleyearlifetablesuk1980to2018).\nAccording to the ONS, \"single year life tables give a more granular perspective on whether mortality patterns are improving, worsening or staying the same than three-year average life tables. However, unlike three-year life tables, single-year life tables are not National Statistics. They are considered less robust as they are more prone to annual fluctuations in deaths caused by seasonal events.\"\nWhat will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?\nThe prediction will be resolved using the 2021 version of \"Single-year life tables - Great Britain edition of this dataset 2020\" excel file published by the Office of National Statistics available [here](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/singleyearlifetablesuk1980to2018). There will be a 2021 tab in the next edition. Under the male heading, row age = 0 and column ex, British male life expectancy in 2021 should be reported.\nThe ONS released the data on the 22-24 of Sept for the past 4 years and will presumably stick with this pattern. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:44.201Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-15T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-24T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the correlation of the change of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate from 2022 to 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8321/new-keynesian-phillips-curve-correlation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. The New Keynesian Phillips curve holds that the rate of change of inflation and unemployment ought to be positively correlated.\nIn order to test this claim, this question asks the following:\nWhat will be the correlation of the change of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate from 2022 to 2031?\nThis question resolves as the [Pearson correlation coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_correlation_coefficient) of the time series and from to inclusive, where is the end-of-year CPI inflation obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) for the year (meaning the year-on-year CPI inflation rate measured in December of that year) and is the end-of-year unemployment rate obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) for the year .\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:54.467Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8322/forecasting-inflation-using-unemployment/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's inflation rate allows us to forecast this year's inflation rate better than just relying on last year's inflation rate alone. \nTo this end, let denote the inflation rate and the unemployment rate for the United States in the year respectively. We can then run the following ordinary least squared regressions from the year to the year inclusive:\nThe [adjusted coefficient of determination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination#Adjusted_R2) is a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the regression that corrects for the number of independent variables so as to control for the effect of overfitting. Ideally, the adjusted coefficient of determination only goes up when we add an additional independent variable to a regression if the additional variable is actually useful in predicting the dependent variable.\nWe ask the following question:\nWill unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?\nThis question resolves positively if the adjusted coefficient of determination of the second regression strictly exceeds that of the first regression, and resolves negatively otherwise. Here, is the end-of-year CPI inflation for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) for the year (meaning the year-on-year CPI inflation rate measured in December of that year) and is the end-of-year unemployment rate for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) for the year .\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:46:59.665Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-29T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a for-profit corporation.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:04.801Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nNationalization of corporations that are working on AGI might happen due to the government perceiving the risks and power imbalance associated with a private organization with AGI technology to be unacceptable. \nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a nationalized organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:10.024Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a university.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:15.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group working for a government project.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:20.305Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\nFor example, OpenAI was initially founded as a non-profit organization \"so that they could focus its research on creating a positive long-term human impact.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#Motives))\nWill the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a non-profit organization.\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \nSister questions\n---[Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/) \n---[University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/) \n---[Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:25.686Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8333/date-us-workplace-occupancy-reaches-50/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns caused a massive movement of workers out of office buildings and into homes and remote offices. As the pandemic slowly comes under control, many are speculating whether we'll return to the norm of commuting into the office, or whether this is the new normal.\n[Gallup polling on 17 May 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx) found significant variation among workers' desires to continue working from home, depending on their field. Of remote workers in a computer/mathematical field, 13% would continue to work remotely due to COVID-19 concern, 63% would prefer work remote work regardless of COVID-19, and 24% would prefer to return to the office. Of remote workers in an Education, Training, or Library field, 48% would prefer to return to the office.\nWhen will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?\nThis question will resolve on the date that [Kastle Systems' Workplace Occupancy Barometer](https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/getting-america-back-to-work/#workplace-barometer) reports occupancy over 50% of pre-pandemic levels in its average of 10 US cities.\nIf this does not happen by 2023-01-01, this resolves as >2023-01-01. If Kastle Systems no longer reports this data, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:41.412Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-16T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-16T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8334/us-office-construction-spending-77b-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on commercial real estate, particularly retail and hospitality locations, as well as urban office spaces. In April 2020, Gallup found that [69% of full-time employed americans were working from home](https://news.gallup.com/poll/348743/seven-u.s.-white-collar-workers-still-working-remotely.aspx). Some wonder whether this is the beginning of the end of major downtown office buildings, but [Andra Ghent, associate professor of finance at UNC, predicts](https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/kenan-insight/how-will-covid-19-affect-commercial-real-estate/) \"it’s unlikely that increased technology adoption will affect prime office space in core downtown areas in major cities, where location brings important benefits through networking and access to skilled workers.\"\nIn March 2020 US Spending on office construction and maintenance reached an all-time high of $95 Billion, and then declined over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns to $80 Billion in December 2020. Office construction has gone through similar cycles in the past, reaching a low of $34 Billion in February 2011 following the 2008 financial crisis.\nWill spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the average seasonally-adjusted annual office construction spending in 2022 is less than $77 Billion [according to the US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=VIP&startYear=2002&endYear=2021&categories=A02XX&dataType=T&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=).\nThis question may resolve after 2023-07-01 to account for revisions by the US Census Bureau. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:47:46.595Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-21T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8341/aclu-argues-against-free-speech-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, some commenters [have](https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1303352142866993154) [criticized](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/opinion/rbg-aclu-abortion.html) [the ACLU](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html) for abandoning its historic stance in favor of free speech. On 2021-10-17, journalist Glenn Greenwald [predicted](https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1449740659036983308) this on twitter:\nI really believe that within 18-24 months, ACLU - either a state affiliate or the national group - will argue in court that hate speech is outside 1st Amendment protections because it infringes the rights of marginalized groups.\nHistorically, laws regulating [hate speech in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hate_speech_in_the_United_States) have been found to violate the First Amendment protections of freedom of speech.\nBy 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?\nThis question will resolve positively if by 2024-01-01, any part of the ACLU (either a state affiliate or the national group) argues in any court that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment protections of Freedom of Speech. \"Arguing in Court\" here means providing direct aid in a court, not merely filing an amicus brief or making public statements. \"Hate Speech\" here will mean public speech which is predjudiced or discriminatory towards groups protected by the Fourteenth Amendment, including those defined by disability, race, ethnicity, nationality, national origin, gender, gender identity, or sex.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:13.420Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8356/safer-to-leak-10000-t-oil-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 1988, the former supertanker Esso Japan has been moored in the Red Sea off the Yemeni city of Al Hudaydah as the floating oil storage and offloading vessel Safer. Prior to the outbreak of the latest Yemeni civil war, it was used by the state-owned Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation to store crude extracted from Yemen's oil fields and trans-ship it for export. In this configuration it could store up to about 400,000 tonnes (3 MMbbl) of oil.\nIn 2015, the opposition Houthi movement captured Al Hudaydah and its port, and the Safer fell into disuse and disrepair. In subsequent years, international concern has gradually increased about the ship and its derelict cargo of nearly 150,000 tonnes (1.14 MMbbl). A major spill could close port access for badly needed humanitarian aid, wipe out the fishing industry of a country already experiencing widespread malnutrition, and potentially disrupt global shipping lanes through the confined approaches to the Suez Canal.\nSafely removing the oil from the Safer in its current condition ought to be simple mechanically. The problem is obtaining the necessary co-operation from the Houthis. Their troops garrison the vessel. There are fears of naval mines in the surrounding waters, and of booby-traps and scuttling charges aboard the Safer itself.\nThe Houthi leadership has linked the resolution of the Safer problem to broader diplomatic disputes. In 2020, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi mockingly tweeted, \"The life of the shrimps is more precious than the life of Yemeni citizens to the U.S. and its allies. ... Why is Safer more dangerous than the siege and the assault ... on the [Yemeni] people?\" In a later tweet, he added: \"If, God forbid, an environmental catastrophe occurred with the explosion of the Safer, the world will stop not for a week, as it did in Suez [during the Ever Given incident], but will stop for a long time.\" Some United Nations officials working on the problem are said to have privately concluded that the Houthis are playing chicken.\nAs Journalist Ed Caesar [has written](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/11/the-ship-that-became-a-bomb) in The New Yorker:\nThe Safer is not sinking. It is not on fire. It has not exploded. It is not leaking oil. Yet the crew of the ship, and every informed observer, expects disaster to occur soon. But how soon? A year? Six months? Two weeks? Tomorrow? In May [2021], Ahmed Kulaib, the former executive at [the Safer's operating company], told me that “it could be after five minutes.” Then five minutes passed, and then another... The crisis unfolds at the speed of rust.\nWill the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of credible media report that an oil spill associated with the FSO Safer has released at least 10,000 metric tonnes of oil. This question will resolve negatively if this has not occurred by 2025-01-01.\nIn the case that estimates of the size of the oil spill vary, such that ranges span above and below 10,000 tonnes, the question may resolve ambiguous if sufficient clarifying evidence is unavailable.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:23.725Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8360/israel-mandates-salt-iodization-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Unlike most other industrialized nations, Israel has never iodized its salt on a National level, and has a [widespread](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251) [iodine](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32357947/) [deficiency](https://ijhpr.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13584-020-00382-5). Israel's [Health Ministry](https://health.gov.il/English/Topics/FoodAndNutrition/Nutrition/Adequate_nutrition/Pages/iodine.aspx) has a page on the iodine issue, and the iodine issue in Israel [has](https://www.jpost.com/Business-and-Innovation/Health-and-Science/Health-Ministry-lags-behind-Iran-and-PA-in-iodine-fortification-of-salt-497207) [received](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170327083438.htm) [substantial](https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/study-israelis-have-among-world-s-worst-iodine-deficiency-1.5453908) [media](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) [attention](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/health-and-science/iodine-free-salt-create-national-health-problem-485381).\nIodine is [well](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15292317/) [known](https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/how-adding-iodine-to-salt-boosted-americans-iq) [to increase IQ](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6145226/). It is known that iodine deprivation for children and pregnant mothers, the groups tested in Israel, hurts national IQ; the data on adults is [less clear.](https://www.gwern.net/Iodine) It has been [suggested](https://twitter.com/Go321D/status/988159032467701760) that iodine deficiency is hurting the cognitive performance of Israel pupils. \nThe iodine issue was first identified [in 2017](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/thy.2017.0251). Recently, the Health Ministry [has considered](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-kids-low-in-iodine-desalinated-water-use-blamed-1.9969026) iodizing salt.\nAround 120 countries have some form of mandating salt iodization ([Dasgupta, et al. 2008](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3509517/)), although the US, for example, does not.\nWill Israel require salt to be iodized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel passes any policy requiring the majority of food-grade salt to be fortified with iodine before 2030-01-01, according to credible media reports or official government announcements.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:28.899Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a US-China war by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.\nWill there be a US-China war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/)\n--- \n[100 deaths from China-US conflict before 2050](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8051/100-deaths-from-china-us-conflict-before-2050/)\n--- \n[Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:34.044Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a China-India war by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the purposes of this question, a China-India war is defined as the China and India collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of India or between India and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by 2035-01-01, this question will resolve negatively.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\nWill there be a China-India war by 2035?\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:39.216Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in China by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in China from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:44.351Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK, or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Russia by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Russia from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.23,
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- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:49.459Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in the US, UK, or France by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in the US, UK, or France from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-01-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:54.590Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in India by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in India from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:48:59.702Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in Pakistan by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in Pakistan from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:04.874Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality:\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[US, UK or France](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8366/usa-uk-or-france-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2030, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:09.996Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8370/us-reaction-on-natos-offensive-detonation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Different nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.\nDetonations will be considered part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2030, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nSee also\n---[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/) \nIf a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of an offensive detonation by the US in the same conflict. The first detonation in this conflict must occur between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:15.119Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nWhat will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves as the yield in kilotonnes of the largest yield nuclear weapon detonated offensively by 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs between 2021-11-01 and 2050-01-01.\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the largest yield weapon detonated in any of those conflicts, not necessarily the first conflict. \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:25.356Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8373/hemp-attacks-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon.\"\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and whether, if one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, they'd cause a total of >10 million fatalities. This question is about how many such attacks would occur, if any do. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either: a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHow many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?\nThis question resolves as the number of HEMP attacks that occur in total between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01. If there are no HEMP attacks by 2030 by any state or non-state actor, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one HEMP attack occurring by 2030.\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count as HEMP attacks, even if they cause significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. \"HEMPs for testing purposes\" are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:30.531Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 100. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:35.693Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8375/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [nine states possess a total of ~13,000 nuclear warheads](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). Over the coming decades, it's possible that some of those states will abandon their nuclear weapons, that other states will develop nuclear weapons, and that global stockpiles sizes will substantially rise or fall. \nAnd if nuclear conflict does occur, it's at least possible that that could involve the use of anywhere from just a single nuclear weapon to all the nuclear weapons that existed at the start of the conflict (or even more). A clearer sense of how many weapons might be used could inform decisions about how much various actors should prioritize nuclear risk reduction and which interventions are most valuable for nuclear risk reduction. (For example, the likelier it is that only a small number of nuclear weapons would be used, the less important it'd be to reduce the chance of arms races or of escalation from limited to large-scale nuclear war.)\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also\n--- \n[Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8374/offensive-nuclear-detonations-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\nWill >1000 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the number of offensive nuclear weapons detonations in total between the opening of this question and 2050-01-01 is larger than 1,000. If there is no fatality from an offensive nuclear detonations before 2050, then this question will resolve ambiguously. That is, this question conditions on at least one fatality from an offensive detonation occurring by 2050. \nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of 2055-01-01.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:41.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8376/nuclear-weapon-detonations-on-cities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). Several questions in this tournament are intended to shed light on the question of how many nuclear detonations would occur on well-populated areas, including [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/), [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/), and similar questions. This question uses a different operationalization for a similar purpose.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive state nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental detonations of weapons that were owned by a state at the time of detonation (see the fine print for definitions). This excludes detonations of weapons that were created by non-state actors or were sold to non-state actors by the state that had owned the weapon.\nCities are defined as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" [Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas).\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\nWhat fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive state nuclear detonations by 2050-01-01 which occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of city that has a population density of at least 1500 people per square kilometer. The question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive state nuclear detonations between the question opening and 2050-01-01.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city\".\nOffensive state nuclear detonations could include detonations by non-state actors which stole a nuclear weapon owned by a state. The main reason for including such detonations is that they can be hard to distinguish from two types of detonations that do seem worth including: \n--- \ncases where actors within an official chain of command \"go rogue\" and use a weapon\n--- \ncases where a country basically allows terrorists to steal and use its weapons against the country's adversary\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:46.509Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8377/total-amount-of-nuclear-weapons-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nAccording to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):\n\"The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons.\"\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).\nWill countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons at the end of 2029?\nThis question resolves positively if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all countries on 2029-12-31 is greater than 20,000, according to the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 2034-12-31. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It does not include weapons possessed by non-state actors.\nResolution criteria will come from [FAS](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:51.642Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8378/total-nuclear-weapon-yield-worlwide-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.\nWill the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?\nResolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n--- \nask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n--- \nmake an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which stockpiles include a total of more than 20,000 warheads and their mean yield is 500kt. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:49:56.808Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8379/nuclear-weapon-with-yield-above-30-mt-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, between 2021-11-01 and 2030-01-01, the following two conditions are met:\n1-- \nAt least two credible sources (major governments, scientific associations, or intelligence services) claim that a country most likely has a nuclear weapon with a yield above 30 MT. This weapon may be stockpiled or deployed (but not in development, for example).\n2-- \nNo two independent credible sources with ability to evaluate such a claim contest / deny this claim. Media reports will be counted only to the extent that they reference to such a credible source; news organizations themselves cannot be expected to have means of evaluating such a claim on their own. In the case that there is significant disagreement between these claims Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, make a judgement about the credibility of these claims, or resolve ambiguously.\nThe Russian Poseidon/Status-6 device, for example, could resolve this question positively if it met these two conditions.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the country has only one such weapon, and even if it has such a weapon sometime before 2030 but no longer has such a weapon at the start of 2030 (e.g., if it test detonates, offensively detonates, or dismantles the weapon before then).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:02.168Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8380/test-of-nuclear-weapon-above-30-mt-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.\nWill any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 there are reports of such a test by reputable sources.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:07.342Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) \nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 1 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict. \n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:12.494Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one thousand offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?\nThe question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 10 years of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 4 billion fatalities were caused by that conflict.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 4 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:17.623Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8383/nuclear-attacks-and-global-temperature-drop/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange\n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[The relationship between the smoke generated and the climate](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_relationship_between_the_smoke_generated_and_the_climate)\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[Global temperature record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record) on Wikipedia\nIf >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?\nThis question will resolve positively if the following two criteria are met:\n1-- \nThere is a nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by 2030-01-01 \n2-- \nAverage global temperature during the 3 years following the conflict is at least 3°C lower than the average global temperature during the 3 years prior to the conflict.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by 2030-01-01.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in temperature but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:22.765Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the population living on Mars in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8388/mars-population-over-50-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), [NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasa), and other entities are aiming to send people to Mars with the long term goal of [establishing a permanent human presence](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/elon-musk-aiming-for-mars-so-humanity-is-not-a-single-planet-species.html).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nBy 2050 there will be an established and growing civilian presence on Mars—a city on the Red Planet. [...] the first city will experience surprisingly explosive economic growth, adding population in a way no Earth city is at the time. It’s very possible someone you know right now will be living on Mars by 2050.\nHoel later doubled-down on his prediction with some nearer-term predictions, including [the first human permanent residents and initial base construction by 2030](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/nasa-and-spacex-are-establishing).\nWhat will be the population living on Mars in 2050?\nThis will resolve as the number of people living on Mars in the year 2050. Resolution criteria will be based on reports from any reputable government or corporate entity with a presence on Mars or from reputable media sources. \"Residents\" may include any human living on or visiting Mars' surface for any time in the calendar year 2050, in [UTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time) time.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:27.976Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T20:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-06-01T19:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8391/nuclear-conflict-during-summer-season/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling. \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n“Nuclear conflict” will be defined as a situation in which there is state use of at least one nuclear weapon against another actor’s territory and/or forces. This state use could be deliberate, inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorised but by an actor in the state’s chain of command (see fine print for definitions). This excludes non-state use of nuclear weapons.\nIf nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?\nThe question resolves positively if the first nuclear strike in the first nuclear conflict before 2030-01-01 happens between June 1st and September 30th inclusive (of any year). \nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict in this period.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:33.182Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8392/nuclear-attacks-and-global-cereal-yields/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nPotentially useful resources:\n--- \n[[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n--- \n[[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n--- \n[List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n--- \n[Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole.\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nIf there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?\nThis question conditions on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations in a single conflict before 2050. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nThe above condition is met, and\n2-- \nAverage global cereal yields over the 5 years following the end of the nuclear conflict that met that above condition are at least 5% lower than the average in the 5 years preceding the nuclear conflict.\nCrop yield data will be taken from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (or another credible organization).\nNote that crop yields are currently rising over time, so a 5% decline in the 5 years following the conflict compared to the 5 years before the conflict corresponds to a >5% decline compared to what would be expected under normal conditions - i.e., a >5% decline compared to what would occur if we extrapolated the current trend forwards.\nIf a relevant source gives a relevant estimate but in the form of a range, this question can resolve positively as long as the midpoint of the range is 5% or higher.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to discern whether the decline in cereal yields was caused by the nuclear detonations. \nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over territory owned by the US\".\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in yields but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:38.350Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-06-04T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New START] ([https://www.state.gov/new-start/](https://www.state.gov/new-start/)) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. We ask if the New START treaty will be renewed again for at least an additional year - that is, whether it will be extended until at least 5 February 2027.\nWill the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following conditions occur:\n1-- \nThere are credible reports such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) of New START being extended to at least 5 February 2027. \n2-- \nThere are credible reports of New START being replaced by another nuclear arms control agreement that will last until at least 5 February 2027 and that US officials, Russian officials, and other credible sources describe as a successor to New START.\nIt is not necessary that the renewed or replacement treaty has very similar terms. But note that the second condition would not be met if one or two of the three relevant groups (US officials, Russian officials, or other credible sources) do not describe the treaty as a successor to New START. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:43.522Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8394/hemp-attacks-causing-10-million-fatalities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and how many such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about how much harm would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n---a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or \n---a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation \nIf one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?\nThis question resolves positively if at least one HEMP attack occurs before 2030-01-01 and the total fatalities caused by all HEMP attacks by 2030-01-01 is above 10 million, according to at least 3 estimates from credible sources by 2030-01-31. Fatalities from all HEMP attacks in this time period will be counted towards positive resolution, even if they are from separate countries and separate conflicts. \nThe question resolves negatively if at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2030 but there aren't at least 3 credible sources which estimate the total fatalities caused to be above 10 million. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if no HEMP attack occurs by 2030, or if fewer than 3 credible sources provide any estimates about the number of fatalities from HEMP attacks by 2030.\nNo attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources regarding what fatalities should be considered \"caused\" by the HEMP attack(s). This could include fatalities caused by the initial blast of a HEMP attack, the radioactive fallout, or by the infrastructure disruption caused by the HEMP. But estimates of fatalities caused by other bombs or military strikes in the same time place will not be counted as estimates of fatalities caused by the HEMP attack(s). \nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count as HEMP attacks, even if they cause significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. \"HEMPs for testing purposes\" are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:48.692Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-07T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nthat condition is met by 2100-01-01, and\n2-- \nat least 3 credible sources state or estimate that, within 1 month of the final detonation as part of the first conflict that meets that condition, more than 1 million fatalities were caused by that conflict. \nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nIf the nuclear conflict clearly causes more than 1 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on anything, this question will also resolve positively. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, because forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:53.819Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as \"extinction\".\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to zero within 50 years of the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations. For simplicity, we will consider detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of another detonation (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the nuclear conflict wasn't the sole cause, a major cause, or even a contributing factor in the eventual extinction event. (This is because it would be useful for this question to capture instances in which the nuclear conflict merely contributed to rather than solely or directly causing extinction, but it seems hard to capture that neatly except via this more expansive resolution criteria.) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:50:58.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See also:\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n--- \n[Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n--- \n[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n--- \n[Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.\nIf there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?\nThis question resolves positively, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between now and 2100-01-01) which involves >1000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by 2100-01-01.\nNo attempt will be made to distinguish the effects of the nuclear conflict from the effects of other events. That is, even if it's mere coincidence that the population declines and/or that it remains low following the nuclear conflict, the question can still resolve positively.\nWe request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus scores may be unlikely to be tracked or cared about if this question resolves positively, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:04.146Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n--- \nhow many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n--- \nwhat proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\nThis question conditions on there being a single nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations by 2100. That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. (But the condition doesn't require that the first nuclear conflict after the question opening involves more than 100 detonations.) Two detonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if there is the gap between them is 30 days or less.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n--- \n[If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nWill the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?\nThe question resolves positively if by 2100-01-01 that condition is met and at least 3 credible sources state or estimate that more than 100 million fatalities were caused by the nuclear conflict within 1 month of the final detonation that is part of that conflict. If a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 100 million fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict.\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:09.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-04-14T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8399/10-or-more-nuclear-armed-states-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2021, [nine states possess nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/): Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, [in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction). \nA few other states [possessed nuclear weapons in the past but no longer do](https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/05/08/526078459/giving-up-nuclear-weapons-its-rare-but-its-happened): in particular, some former Soviet republics gave up their inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed, and South Africa built nuclear weapons but then dismantled them in 1991. \nOther states have [secretly explored nuclear weapon development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Unsanctioned_nuclear_activity) or have been found in violation of [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). Some countries have more [Breakout Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Breakout_capability) than others-- both [Japan](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11302/the-realist-prism-iran-nuclear-standoff-obscures-broader-proliferation-challenges) and [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) have sufficient uranium and other resources to quickly develop nuclear weapons.\nWill there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?\nThis question will resolve positively if at any time during the period between this question opening and 2035-01-01, at least 3 credible sources report that at least 10 countries have a deployable nuclear weapon.\nFor this question to resolve positively, it needs not be the case that there are 10 or more nuclear-armed states at the start of 2035 specifically; if one or more nuclear-armed states give up nuclear weapons by 2035, but at some point before 2035 there were at least 10 states with deployable nuclear weapons, this question would resolve positively. \nIf a current nuclear-armed state fractures into multiple states and more than one of the successor states then possess deployable weapons, each of those states will count as separate nuclear-armed states for the purposes of this question. (The reason for this is that the successor states will likely have substantially different geopolitical relationships and interests.) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:14.431Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-28T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8403/25-top-100-songs-made-by-ai-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nThe worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]\nBy 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?\nThis question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing. Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:30.590Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T20:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8404/25-of-nyt-best-sellers-written-by-ai-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nThe worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]\nBy 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?\nThis question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI. For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Fiction_Best_Sellers_of_2020). If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\nTo qualify as being written by AI, authorship of the book must be credited to an AI or more than 75% of the content must be created by AI, according to publisher's statements or credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:35.729Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T20:31:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T20:31:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8405/us-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-212023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the [New York Times](https://archive.md/ofQjp),\nAfter months of negotiations over President Biden’s big social spending bill, congressional Democrats looking for ways to pay for it have zeroed in on America’s billionaires.\nTo squeeze more money from the very wealthy, they are looking toward a change in the tax code that would reinvent how the government taxes investments — at least for the few hundred richest families — and lean against the accumulation of enormous fortunes in the future.\nDetails of the plan remain sparse as of Monday, and negotiations over the overall spending package are fluid. But the idea from the Senate Finance Committee chairman, Ron Wyden, is essentially to apply a more stringent version of capital gains taxes on the billionaire class. [...]\nThe Wyden plan would require the very wealthy — those with over $1 billion in assets or three straight years of income over $100 million — to pay taxes based on unrealized gains. At that tier of wealth, the logic goes, the usual considerations arguing against a so-called “mark-to-market” capital gains tax don’t apply. Those are sophisticated taxpayers with access to loans or other source of liquidity, for example, who hold assets that for the most part can reasonably be valued annually.\nWill a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, a federal law is passed requiring at least some citizens in the United States to pay a tax on unrealized capital gains. Unrealized capital gains are defined as asset appreciation values that could in theory be \"realized\", or sold to yield a profit.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:40.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-29T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8407/retail-locations-half-of-2020-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "E-commerce has grown in popularity and has caused many to speculate that physical shopping may become obsolete in the future. \nPhysical department store locations have faced a slow decline in recent years, with a sharper decline exacerbated by the pandemic in 2020 (see the section titled \"Number of department store locations in the US\" [here](https://www.vox.com/recode/21561046/death-rebirth-department-stores-retail-charts)).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about physical retail in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe majority of all current brick and mortar stores that are not located in scenic or tightly-packed downtowns will have closed. From stores that sell physical objects to chain restaurants, most of the physical locations you can go and shop will be gone. Instead, you will be able to get any product you would normally buy in a physical store delivered to you in under an hour, sometimes in mere minutes.\nWill retail and restaurant locations in the US decline by over 50% between 2020 and 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if, at any time between 2021 and 2050, at least 4 of the following 7 business categories report 50% fewer physical establishments than reported in 2020:\n---Electronics and appliance stores \n---Grocery stores \n---Health and personal care stores \n---Clothing stores \n---Shoe stores \n---Department stores \n---Limited-service restaurants \nResolution will be according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/). The categories above are fully defined by [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/) in the fine print. If BLS no longer reports this data or changes their classification or methodology, Metaculus Admins may use a similar source of data or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.\nBLS categorizes businesses using [NAICS](https://www.naics.com/search/). categories are listed with the total number of establishments in the US for 2020 (as of November 24, 2021). BLS series IDs are useful for retrieving data from [here](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate).\nNAICS ID description 2020 number of establishments BLS series ID \n4431\nElectronics and appliance stores\n43643\nENUUS0002054431\n4451\nGrocery stores\n89545\nENUUS0002054451\n4461\nHealth and personal care stores\n112133\nENUUS0002054461\n4481\nClothing stores\n79968\nENUUS0002054481\n4482\nShoe stores\n15993\nENUUS0002054482\n4522\nDepartment stores\n11567\nENUUS0002054522\n722513\nLimited-service restaurants\n248416\nENUUS000205722513\nNumbers of establishments in 2020 will be used as above, unless there is more accurate data known to Metaculus Admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:46.045Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:53:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T20:53:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8408/givewell-recommend-breastfeeding-promotion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating [14 charity areas](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) including breastfeeding promotion.\nThe following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s [explanation of the topic](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/breastfeeding-promotion):\n“The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF recommend early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive breastfeeding to 6 months, and partial breastfeeding to age 24 months to improve infant and maternal health, but the majority of infants are not fed according to these guidelines. Mothers may not breastfeed as long or as intensively as they would like due to a lack of skills and support, so various maternal counselling and support interventions promote breastfeeding behaviour change.”\nEffectiveness for the following reasons: “We believe there is reasonably strong evidence that breastfeeding support programs can lead to increases in rates of exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months (compared to some or predominant breastfeeding) and breastfeeding duration, as recommended by WHO/UNICEF. Their impacts on exclusive breastfeeding may be larger in low-income countries. There is additional evidence that increasing breastfeeding reduces diarrhoea morbidity, which likely leads to reductions in childhood mortality from diarrhoea. It may also cause additional benefits that we have not yet vetted.”\nWill GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if GiveWell publishes a recommendation that grants be given to support breastfeeding promotion or on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a breastfeeding promotion charity is designated a top charity before December 31, 2026.\nThis may happen in the following ways:\n---GiveWell writes “yes” in the column “Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?” in the “breastfeeding promotion” row of the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or the spreadsheet which supersedes this one (see below). \n---Givewell publishes a blog in which which they announce they are recommending a grant in the area of breastfeeding promotion \n---Givewell adds an incubation grant to a breastfeeding promotion charity on this page [https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants) \n---A GiveWell blog post announcing that a charity in the area of breastfeeding promotion is a “Top Charity” \n---GiveWell publishes a section on breastfeeding promotion on its [Top Charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) page \nIf GiveWell publishes a recommendation that is no longer in force in 2027, this question resolves positively. Eg GiveWell no longer recommends grants to GiveDirectly, but it once did. \nIf GiveWell revokes a recommendation due to making errors in its calculations, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThe category “standout charities” used to exist. It no longer does, so can be ignored.\nIf the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) is no longer linked from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research), a superseding spreadsheet may be used. A superseding spreadsheet should have very similar column headings or the same title (“GiveWell programme reviews) or be linked under “prioritized list of programmes” from [this page](https://www.givewell.org/research) or failing that, be the consensus choice of admins commenting on the question. \nFor clarity, if the above criteria aren’t met, but a reasonable spreadsheet exists which contains a grant for breastfeeding promotion exists, admins can post their suggestions of the spreadsheet in the comments of this question. Admins can change their votes, but at the time of resolution, all admins should have commented in favour of the same spreadsheet. If they have not, and the question does not resolve positively by any of the other methods, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:51.195Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-09-07T23:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-03-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8409/drones-deliver-100-million-parcels-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Package delivery by drone has been a goal of companies such as Amazon, who in 2020 [won approval from the FAA to deliver packages by drone](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/amazon-prime-now-drone-delivery-fleet-gets-faa-approval.html).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about drone delivery in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBuzzing drones of all shapes and sizes will be common the sky (last year Amazon won FAA approval for its delivery drone service, opening the door for this).\nAccording to the [Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index](https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shipping-index.html) 20.2 billion parcels were [shipped in 2020 in the United States](https://www.pitneybowes.com/content/dam/pitneybowes/us/en/shipping-index/pb_parcelshippinginfographic_2021_final.pdf).\n[According to the USPS](https://pe.usps.com/businessmail101?ViewName=Parcels#:~:text=If%20your%20mailpiece%20isn't,value%20for%20your%20postage%20dollars.) \nIf your mailpiece isn't a postcard, Letter, or a flat (large envelope) , then it's a parcel.\nWill aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if credible estimates state that aerial drones delivered 100 million or more parcels in the United States in any year between 2021 and 2049, inclusive. Drones need not be responsible for the entire delivery chain, parcels shipped by truck to a distribution center where aerial drones complete the deliveries would qualify. The definition of a parcel will conform to the USPS definition (see the link and quote in the question background).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:51:56.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:53:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-08-01T12:54:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many career points will James Harden score in the NBA regular season when he retires?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8410/total-regular-season-points-for-james-harden/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As at 27 October 2021, 6:00pm British Summer Time, [James Harden had scored a total of 22,114 points during the NBA regular season](https://www.nba.com/stats/alltime-leaders/). [James Harden is 32 years old and currently plays Guard for the Brooklyn Nets](https://www.nba.com/stats/player/201935/). He is known for 3-point shooting and is [currently the top left-handed scorer in the history of the NBA](https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/2020/08/03/james-harden-tops-david-robinson-to-become-nbas-top-lefty-scorer/).\nHow many career points will James Harden score in the NBA regular season when he retires?\nThis question resolves after James Harden retires according to [NBA.com](http://NBA.com). If he returns to the NBA after this formal announcement and scores points, they will not count toward the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:01.581Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-02T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-07-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8444/tesla-most-valuable-traded-co-before-23/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, [climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU)\nIn October 2021, [Tesla became a trillion-dollar company](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59045100), after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company [one of the most valuable in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2021). Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), and Google parent Alphabet.\nWill Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2023, Tesla is credibly reported by reputable financial media sources (e.g. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The Nikkei) to be the world's most-valuable publicly-traded corporation by market capitalization. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:11.998Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the five-year relative survival rate of pancreatic cancer patients in the US exceed 50%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8445/50-survival-rate-of-pancreatic-cancer/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Survival rates for pancreatic cancer, one of the more lethal cancer types, have begun to [increase substantially](https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/pancreas.html). Five-year relative survival in the US has risen from 5.3% in 2000 to 12.1% in 2013. The five-year relative survival rate statistic is the fraction of patients alive five years after diagnosis normalized by the survival rate of similar people without a cancer diagnosis. That means a five-year relative survival rate of 100% indicates no lethal effect of cancer on that timescale, even though the patients might die of unrelated causes.\nWhen will the five-year relative survival rate of pancreatic cancer patients in the US exceed 50%?\nThis question will resolve on the date which the [US National Cancer Institute declares](https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/pancreas.html) that the five-year relative survival rate for pancreatic cancer is more than 50.0%.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:17.202Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-10-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the rate of new pancreatic cancer cases be in the US in the year 2038?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8446/pancreatic-cancer-incidence-in-2038/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are different metrics of progress in fighting cancer, and for some metrics it is not always clear which direction is good or bad. Survival rates for a cancer type can increase while the incidence of new cases also increases, and the latter could happen for reasons as benign as an increase in detection.\nWhat will the rate (per 100k people) of new pancreatic cancer cases be in the US in the year 2038?\nThe question will resolve as the rate of pancreatic cancer cases per 100,000 people according to [the US National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/pancreas.html) for 2038. This figure is for all ages, sexes, and races.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:22.326Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 5 states have ranked-choice voting for their US senators?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8448/ranked-choice-voting-in-us-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many see ranked-choice voting as a way to improve the democratic voting system, including by reducing polarization and helping third parties. Ranked choice voting allows voters to rank candidates in order of their preferences. If no candidate receives more than half of the first-place votes there is an instant run off, where the candidate with the fewest votes drops off and this process continues until there is a majority winner. Ranked-choice voting has [prominent](https://www.fairvote.org/ranked_choice_voting_endorsements#national_political_leaders) supporters across the political spectrum such as Barack Obama, Andrew Yang, John McCain and Jo Jorgensen. \nIn 2020 [Alaska](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alaska-ranked-choice-voting) adapted ranked-choice voting for their statewide elections while [Maine](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/03/us/maine-ranked-choice-voting.html) did in 2016. Currently, only these 2 states have their US Senators elected by ranked-choice voting. Wisconsin currently has a [RCV bill](https://apnews.com/article/legislature-voting-bills-wisconsin-state-legislature-41bd936ff1774d33c6a9e88a90ed8e07) in their legislature with bipartisan support.\nWhen will 5 states have ranked-choice voting for their US senators?\nThis question will resolve on the date which 5 or more states use ranked-choice voting to elect US senators in their general elections. \"Ranked-choice voting\" may also be known as \"[instant-run-off voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting)\" or other names; [other ranked voting systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranked_voting) will be ignored for this question. The resolution of this question will be the date that the 5th state holds their first ranked-choice general election.\nThe 5 states do not all need to hold a ranked-choice election during the same year to resolve this question. Primary elections (to select a party's nominee for general elections) will not be considered by this question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:27.503Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-20T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8458/uk-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [key uncertainty](https://unherd.com/2021/10/how-we-can-escape-a-lockdown-christmas/) in the UK is what the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will be during the winter of 2021-2022 .\nAs of 24 October 2021, the 7-day moving average for UK COVID patients in hospital is [8,528.3](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital). The all-time peak was [38,434.1](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital) on 19 January 2021.\nWhat will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations before 1 March 2022?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day average of current COVID-19 hospitalizations on the [\"Patients in Hospital”](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital) graph on the UK Government's [\"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\"](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) dashboard.\n1 November 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 28 February 2022 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8459/date-of-uk-covid-hospitalizations-peak/) related question on when this peak will be.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:37.878Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-15T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8459/date-of-uk-covid-hospitalizations-peak/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [key uncertainty](https://unherd.com/2021/10/how-we-can-escape-a-lockdown-christmas/) in the UK is when the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will occur during the winter of 2021-2022 .\nAs of 24 October 2021, the 7-day moving average for UK COVID patients in hospital is [8,528.3](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital). The all-time peak was [38,434.1](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital) on 19 January 2021.\nWhen will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?\nThis question resolves as the date of the peak in the 7-day average of current COVID-19 hospitalizations on the [\"Patients in Hospital”](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_hospital) graph on the UK Government's [\"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\"](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) dashboard.\n1 November 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 28 February 2022 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8458/uk-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-march/) related question on what the magnitude of this peak will be.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:43.019Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-15T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8460/imf-approves-debt-service-for-us-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling#Legislative_history). Despite this, the US has had [very low interest rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#Negative_real_interest_rates) since 2010, both encouraging the US to continue borrowing at cheap rates, and signalling that lenders consider the US government to be a reliable and safe borrower.\nIf this were to escalate into a criss, the US could be so far behind on its debt that the IMF would be called upon to forgive some of their debt. Notably, the IMF provided debt service [for Greece in 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) and for [multiple Latin American Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis) in the 1980s.\nWill the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if the IMF executive board approves debt service relief on the US' debt any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:48.601Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-08T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will entry level software engineers at Google get paid in 2027 according to levels.fyi?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8462/entry-level-tc-at-google-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Google is one of the largest technology companies in the world [by market capitalization](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tech/largest-tech-companies-by-market-cap/) and [by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_technology_companies_by_revenue). It's also considered by most to be a prestigious place to work, with high entry level pay for its software engineers. According to levels.fyi entry-level software engineers currently (as of October 2021) make an average of $191,861 per year when including salary, stock grants, and bonuses.\nHow much will entry level software engineers at Google get paid in 2027 according to levels.fyi?\nThis question resolves according to the total compensation that levels.fyi reports for entry level software engineers in the year 2027 in the United States. The measurement should be taken as soon as possible, with earlier measured values in the year 2027 taking precedence over later measured values. Total compensation refers to the number of dollars an employee is expected to earn per year before taxes after including salary, stock grants, and bonuses. \nIf levels.fyi migrates to a different domain, then that domain will be used for resolution. If levels.fyi becomes defunct, or there is no user data submitted for Google during 2026, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:53.768Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-02-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of primary energy in the United States will come from solar in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8466/primary-energy-from-solar-in-us-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Our World In Data [shows](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-share-energy) that solar energy has grown dramatically in the United States in recent years, growing from 0.89 TWh in 2009 to 132.63 TWh in 2019. This corresponds to [an increase](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-share-energy?tab=chart&country=~USA) from 0.02% of primary energy generation to 1.02% over the same time period. This was made possible by the [rapidly declining price of solar energy](https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth).\nWhat percentage of primary energy in the United States will come from solar in 2031?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of primary energy generated in the United States that comes from solar energy in 2031, as measured by the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, which can be found [here](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). For 2019, this figure was 1.02%. If statistics are no longer published by the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, then another source will be consulted at the admins' discretion. Our World In Data notes that for their methodology,\nPrimary energy in exajoules (EJ) has been converted to TWh by Our World in Data based on a conversion factor of 277.778.\nEach source's share of energy based on the \"substitution method\" were calculated by Our World in Data by taking all energy sources' energy normalised to EJ – this takes account of the inefficiencies in fossil fuel production and is a better approximation of \"final energy\" consumption.\nAdditional metrics have been calculated by Our World in Data: – Annual change in energy consumption by source: this is calculated as the difference from the previous year – % of total primary energy: calculated as each source's share of primary energy from all sources\nThis method of calculation will be used for the purpose of this question, which will hopefully be performed by Our World In Data. Their page on solar energy can be found [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:52:58.898Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How will China score on the Human Freedom Index in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8472/human-freedom-index-for-china-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the [Washington Post](https://archive.md/Q208l),\nA dizzying regulatory crackdown unleashed by China’s government has spared almost no sector over the past few months. This sprawling “rectification” campaign — with such disparate targets as ride-hailing services, insurance, education and even the amount of time children can spend playing video games — is redrawing the boundaries of business and society in China as Xi prepares to take on a controversial third term in 2022.\n“It’s striking and significant. This is clearly not a sector-by-sector rectification; this is an entire economic, industry and structural rectification,” said Jude Blanchette, who holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.\nThe [Human Freedom Index](https://www.cato.org/human-freedom-index/2020) is from CATO, a libertarian institute. It\nis the most comprehensive freedom index so far created for a globally meaningful set of countries. The HFI covers 162 countries for 2018, the most recent year for which sufficient data are available. The index ranks countries beginning in 2008, the earliest year for which a robust enough index could be produced.\nIn 2018 (obtained via the 2020 report), China had a human freedom score of 6.07, compared to, for example, 8.44 for the United States and an average of 6.93. The human freedom score is an average of their scores for \"personal freedom\" and \"economic freedom\".\nHow will China score on the Human Freedom Index in 2030?\nThis question resolves according to the \"human freedom\" score (out of 10) of China for the year 2030, as rated by CATO's Human Freedom Index. The index appears to publish roughly three years following the year of ranking, implying an anticipated resolution date of around 2033.\nIf CATO stops publishing the Human Freedom Index, or their methodology or scoring system changes radically (such as making the scores out of 20, instead of 10), then this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:04.049Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-03-20T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Colorado River’s average annual flow volume from 2025-2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8473/colorado-river-flow-volume-2025-2050-average/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Water scarcity is a [trending topic in mainstream media](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts.html) thanks to concerns mainly due to impending climate change. The Colorado River, the major waterway in the American southwest, is central to this conversation. The region relies on its water to grow tens of billions of dollars of crops, support local flora/fauna, provide 4200+ megawatts of hydropower to cities and quench 40 million residents' thirst. Unfortunately, the Colorado River basin is currently experiencing the Millennium Drought, two decades of below-average flows due.\nLees Ferry divides the drainage areas of the upper and lower basins, and its water gauges are used to determine water allocations for the Colorado River. [The Colorado River Compact of 1922](https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/pao/pdfiles/crcompct.pdf) allotted 16.5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water annually to various states. A century's worth of data and tree ring analyses have since [refined the annual flow estimate](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005WR004455) of the river to 13-15 million acre-feet. This means that the river's allotments are over-budget by more than 1 million acre-feet. Additionally, climate change may increase the gap in this allotment budget. Here's the [2018 National Climate Assessment](https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/25/) on climate change's potential influence on the American southwest:\nThe increase in heat and reduction of snow under climate change have amplified recent hydrological droughts (severe shortages of water) in California, the Colorado River Basin, and the Rio Grande. Snow droughts can arise from a lack of precipitation (dry snow drought), temperatures that are too warm for snow (warm snow drought), or a combination of the two. Periods of low precipitation from natural variations in the climate system are the primary cause of major hydrological droughts in the Southwest region, with increasing temperatures from climate change amplifying recent hydrological droughts, particularly in California and the upper Colorado River Basin.\nUnder the higher scenario (RCP8.5), climate models project an 8.6°F (4.8°C) increase in Southwest regional annual average temperature by 2100. Southern parts of the region could get up to 45 more days each year with maximum temperatures of 90°F (32°C) or higher. Projected hotter temperatures increase probabilities of decadal to multi-decadal megadroughts, which are persistent droughts lasting longer than a decade, even when precipitation increases. Under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), much of the mountain area in California with winters currently dominated by snow would begin to receive more precipitation as rain and then only rain by 2050. Colder and higher areas in the intermountain West would also receive more rain in the fall and spring but continue to receive snow in the winter at the highest elevations.”\nIn the future, will the Colorado River’s flow deviate from its historic average? Will climate change play a role in the river's water shortages? Are precipitation shortfalls temporary?\nWhat will be the Colorado River’s average annual flow volume from 2025-2050?\nThis question will resolve as the average annual natural flow volume (in acre-feet) of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ from 2025-01-01 to 2049-12-31. Natural flow volume data to be provided by the [US Bureau of Reclamation](https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/index.html) (currently USGS # 09380000) or another credible source of hydrological data.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:09.169Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-11-02T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8474/price-of-ca-water-nqh20-over-2500-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Water is an essential commodity and a fundamental precursor for human life. Historically, it’s treated like a public good and is highly subsidized by the government. This can hinder price discovery in markets, which ultimately disjoints supply from demand. Consequently, water has been very cheap, even in regularly arid areas like California or Nevada. Many people believe that water should be traded like other commodities.\nIn late 2018, the [Nasdaq Veles California Water Index](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/nqh2o) began tracking the prevailing market price for water transactions, priced weekly in US dollars per acre-foot. Although water won't swing global financial markets like oil or gold does ([it's too cheap and heavy to trade across long distances](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-08/why-water-won-t-make-it-as-a-major-commodity)), trading water more locally can aid in price discovery/uncertainty and waste mitigation. Starting in December 2020, futures can now be traded on the index.\nThe [current spot price of water on the NQH20](https://www.waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) in September 2021 is above $900, up from $500 in September 2020 and $200 in September 2019. [In the past](https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise), an acre-foot of water from the Colorado River was quoted at $1200 and an acre-foot of water from a desalination facility was quoted at $2200.\nWill the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if the price of water hits $2500, adjusted for inflation to 2021 USD, on the [NQH20](https://waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) by 2050-01-01, 00:00 UTC. This question resolves negatively if the price of water does not hit $2500 by that date, and it resolves ambiguously if the NQH20 or a similar exchange doesn't continuously track California water prices up until 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:14.297Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-06-27T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8475/hanson-vs-barnett-bet-on-ems-first/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\nOK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\nI agree to this bet.\nWill Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.\nRelated question: [When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:19.563Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-10-03T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/participationrate.asp),\nThe labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy’s active workforce. The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who are employed or actively seeking employment divided by the total noninstitutionalized, civilian working-age population.\nThe U.S. labor participation rate stood at 61.4% as of February 2021, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which publishes updates monthly. The monthly figures have hovered around 63% since 2013, after a sharp decline in the wake of the Great Recession. In August 2020, there were 13.6 million unemployed, up 7.6 million from the 6 million in August 2019.\nOne of the many anticipated effects of automation is a decline in the labor force participation rate. For example, in 1850 [about](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-force-participation-rate-of-men-65-years-and-older-in-the-usa) 76.6% of men aged 65 and older participated in the labor force. This figure is now down to 23.38%. Among other factors, this decline probably reflects a shift from work to leisure among older people as society got richer from automation.\nWhen will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?\nThis question resolves on the first day of the month during which a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for that month indicates that the labor force participation rate in the United States fell below 10% for the first time in US history. FRED Economic data currently [tracks](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART) a chart of BLS statistics on the labor force participation rate since 1948.\nIn case the BLS ceases to exist, or changes its name, another reputable organization will take its place. Reputable organizations include, in order of precedence: federal government bodies, international bodies, and highly respected academic groups.\nRelated question: [Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8475/hanson-vs-barnett-bet-on-ems-first/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:24.768Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-10-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8483/trump-victory-if-biden-v-trump-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden [has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/biden-run-reelection-2024-478008), although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.\nFormer president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see [numerous comments on this question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/)) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.\nAs of early November 2021, [President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency.\nIf the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?\nThis question asks whether, contingent on the 2024 US presidential election being a contest between Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, will Donald J. Trump receive at least 270 votes in the electoral college, as certified by Congress in January 2025? If so, this question resolves positively. If the contest is Biden v Trump and Biden wins, this question resolves negatively. If the contest is not Biden v Trump, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:29.952Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-12T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8484/trafalgar-group-vs-538-polling-average-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some [have argued](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor) that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others [have suggested](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/) that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses.\n[Trafalgar Group](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/) is a polling firm that does polling for state and national elections. They have been [criticized](https://web.archive.org/web/20210915164337/https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1437984246703038465) by some [political](https://web.archive.org/web/20200828150653/https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1299362704101175302) [forecasters](https://web.archive.org/web/20210309175524/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301894366886326272) as [inaccurate](https://web.archive.org/web/20201029155819/https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321843425268948992) or biased toward conservatives. However, after the 2020 election FiveThirtyEight upgraded Trafalgar from a [C- pollster rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group) to an [A-](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/), and in a podcast episode Nate Silver [apologized to Trafalgar for prior off the cuff remarks](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-gold-standard-for-polling-has-changed/).\nIf there is a systemic polling bias that underweights the chances of Republican candidates, one possible test might be to compare the performance of the FiveThirtyEight polling average in 2022 to the performance of a polling firm which some view as right-biased, like Trafalgar Group.\nWill Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?\nResolution will be determined by comparing the performance of the most recent poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for each of the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections in the 2022 elections taking place on November 8, 2022, to the 538 polling average on the day after the final day of the corresponding Trafalgar poll. The difference between the top two candidates by final vote share will be compared to the difference between those candidates in the FiveThirtyEight polling average and final Trafalgar Polls. The average absolute value of the difference between actual result and polling will be calculated for each. If the Trafalgar Group average difference is closer to zero than that of FiveThirtyEight then this resolves positively.\nRaces where Trafalgar Group does not produce a poll within one month of the election date will not be included in the average. In the event the average difference for FiveThirtyEight and Trafalgar Group is the same this resolves ambiguously.\nResolution Example Using Fake Numbers:\nSuppose for three races the final results were as follows, where positive values mean the Democrat was ahead of the Republican in the final results and polls. TG stands for Trafalgar Group.\nRace Final Result TG Final Poll TG Error 538 Polling Avg 538 Error \nA\n+2.3\n+1.5\n0.8\n+3.1\n0.8\nB\n+1.2\n-1.1\n2.3\n+2.5\n1.3\nC\n-3.4\n-1.2\n2.2\n-4.0\n0.6\nBased on the above the average error of the Trafalgar Group would be 1.77 and the average error of the FiveThirtyEight polling average would be 0.90. If the example were all of the elections being counted this question would resolve negatively since the FiveThirtyEight error is closer to zero.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:35.213Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T19:28:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8493/half-of-us-college-students-remote-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Technological advancement has enabled meetings and presentations to happen increasingly online. Some believe this will reduce the need for in-person education in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics, in the fall of 2019 [17.6% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were exclusively enrolled in distance education courses](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80).\nIn 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?\nThis question will resolve positively if in the year 2050, at least 50% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions are exclusively enrolled in distance education courses, according to the [National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80). If the NCES no longer reports this data, reliable alternate data sources may be used. If the NCES or alternate sources provide multiple data releases for the year 2050 (for example, a set of statistics for each semester) the result showing the largest share exclusively enrolled in distance education courses will be used.\nIn the event postsecondary education is no longer in a similar form as it was at the time the question was written, admins may use their discretion to determine if comparable data can be found for resolution and, if not, may resolve the question ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:40.342Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T22:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T22:14:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8495/fewer-than-400-us-colleges-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [skyrocketing cost of college education](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cpi2020.png?x91208) in the the United States has led many to speculate on how costs can be brought under control or if they'll continue to rise. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) there were [768 public 4 year colleges in the US in the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If this number fell under 400 by 2050, that would be a drop of 48%.\nBy 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?\nThis question will resolve positively if there are fewer than 400 public 4 year colleges in the US in any year after 2018, up to and including the 2049-2050 school term, according to [NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If NCES no longer reports this data, other credible sources may be used. If the school year is no longer over a similar period, the final term can be any period which ends in 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:45.534Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2041-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US unemployment rate after the next market crash happens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8497/us-unemployment-after-the-next-market-crash/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity_premium_puzzle) make concrete claims about this connection which we might hope to test.\nAn important case is a class of models which involve \"long-run risk\". According to these models, what primarily drives stock market crashes is news about the long-run, and it just so happens that often short-run economic performance gives us the best clues about long-run risks, which leads to the observed pattern of correlation between stock market performance and the business cycle. However, according to long-run risk models this connection is only incidental, and a potential change in the properties of the GDP or consumption time series (such as a change in autocorrelation or conditional [heteroskedasticity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heteroscedasticity)) can upend it entirely.\nThis question, along with its [sibling question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8508/us-unemployment-after-next-volatile-market/), is intended to test this class of models by eliciting the beliefs of Metaculites about the tightness of the connection between market crashes or tumultous market episodes and current macroeconomic events.\nWhat will be the US unemployment rate after the next market crash happens?\nThis question resolves as the civilian unemployment rate [reported by the BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) in units of percentages 6 months after the first month in which the S&P 500 closes below 70% of its previous all-time peak value in any given trading day that month. The peak value is the all-time peak, not the peak in that specific month; and there doesn't need to be a 30% decline within the space of one month, just a 30% overall fall from the previous all-time peak value. \nTo illustrate with an example, if the S&P 500 closes below 70% of its previous peak close value in March 2032, this question would resolve as the civilian unemployment rate reported by the BLS for September 2032.\nIf the S&P 500 never falls below 70% of its previous peak value until the resolution date of the question, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:50.658Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8499/libor-end-date-extension/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to jail for manipulating Libor](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/understanding-libor-scandal), sometimes [so blatantly that it was hilarious](https://www.businessinsider.com/read-the-bloomberg-chats-that-got-a-former-rbs-libor-trader-paul-white-banned-for-life-2016-4?op=1). In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.\nIn the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).\nContracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but [announced a delay in September](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor), for a \"synthetic\" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until 2023-01-01, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from 2023-07-01.\nWill there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?\nThis resolves positive if, by 2023-06-30, [ICE Benchmark Association](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor) announces any further delay in the phasing out of Libor rates. This will still be the case even if the delay involves a so-called “synthetic” methodology so that the rate is no longer representative of the underlying market.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:53:55.834Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-04T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8504/us-sign-killer-robot-ban-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as [defined](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11150.pdf) by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” \nSuch systems, colloquially known (especially by their opponents) as \"Killer Robots\" or \"Slaughterbots\" have received negative attention from a number of actors, including a coalition known as the [Campaign to Stop Killer Robots](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/). \nThese activists appear to prefer a legally-binding instrument of international law, likely in treaty form, as a [\"Killer Robot Ban Treaty\"](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/we-can-stop-killer-robots/). Such a treaty has received support from several countries, as [tracked by Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/10/killer-robots-growing-support-ban), and been discussed at the working group of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (ibid.). \nFormal and legally-binding arms control has proven elusive however, leading some to question the \"[end of arms control](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/149/2/84/27315/The-End-of-Arms-Control).\" Moreover, several of the most powerful militaries in the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, [strongly oppose such a ban](https://www.google.com/search?q=Killer+Robot+Ban&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB978GB978&oq=Killer+Robot+Ban&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j69i60.2167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \nMoreover, a Killer Robot Ban Treaty faces a [fundamental definitional problem](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3348356), as weapons systems like \"homing munitions\" have elements of autonomy under conventional definitions, but are an integral part of many military operations, and have been in use since World War II, and as broad definitions may exclude many applications of artificial intelligence. Senior defense leaders, including Bob Work, the \"[father of the Pentagon's push for Artificial Intelligence](https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/campaign-to-stop-killer-robots-unethical-immoral-bob-work/)\" have also criticized such a ban.\nWill the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Government formally agrees to an international treaty which purports to ban either the possession or the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons as defined above, and is announced on the [U.S. Department of State Office of Treaty Affairs](https://www.state.gov/treaties-in-force/) or a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP or New York Times).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:01.100Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8505/20-embryo-screened-births-us-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nSome expect embryo screening for health defects to gain in popularity in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about embryo screening in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal.\nAccording to the National Center for Health Statistics there were [3.75 million babies born in the US in 2019 and 3.6 million in 2020](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-05/us-birth-rates-continue-to-fall). According to the CDC, approximately [1.9% of infants born each year were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)](https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html), the main type of which is IVF. One study estimates that [4% to 6% of all IVF cycles in the US used PGD](https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282%2807%2901216-2/fulltext).\nBy 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 20% of babies born in the United States in any year before 2050 underwent embryo screening or PGD, according to credible media reports, statements by the US government, or public health agencies. Screening must have taken place before the embryo was implanted in the uterus.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:06.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T17:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-12-31T17:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the S&P 500 dividend yield in end-of-year 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8507/sp-500-dividend-yield-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The S&P 500 [dividend yield](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield) is defined as the sum of the most recent full year dividend paid by all companies in the S&P 500 divided by the current S&P 500 share price, both calculated according to the weights of the S&P 500 index at a given moment. It measures how high prices are relative to dividends: low dividend yields mean prices are high compared to dividends, and vice versa.\nDividend yields are often used as a measure of \"overvaluation\" in the stock market, and they have been trending downwards for the past forty years. This question is about the future of this measure.\nWhat will be the S&P 500 dividend yield in end-of-year 2031?\nThis question will resolve as the S&P 500 dividend yield in units of percentages reported for the date of December 31 2031 [by NASDAQ](https://data.nasdaq.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_DIV_YIELD_MONTH-sp-500-dividend-yield-by-month). If there is no data for December 31 2031 available by the resolution time of the question, the question will resolve as the dividend yield for the latest date in 2031 for which data is available.\nIf NASDAQ ceases to report S&P 500 dividend yields, the question will be resolved according to another credible source.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:16.735Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US unemployment rate after the next volatile market episode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8508/us-unemployment-after-next-volatile-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The exact nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the performance of the stock market has been a subject of much controversy, and some proposed models to explain the [equity premium puzzle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity_premium_puzzle) make concrete claims about this connection which we might hope to test.\nAn important case is a class of models which involve \"long-run risk\". According to these models, what primarily drives stock market crashes is news about the long-run, and it just so happens that often short-run economic performance gives us the best clues about long-run risks, which leads to the observed pattern of correlation between stock market performance and the business cycle. However, according to long-run risk models this connection is only incidental, and a potential change in the properties of the GDP or consumption time series (such as a change in autocorrelation or conditional [heteroskedasticity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heteroscedasticity)) can upend it entirely.\nThis question, along with its [sibling question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8497/us-unemployment-after-the-next-market-crash/), is intended to test this class of models by eliciting the beliefs of Metaculites about the tightness of the connection between market crashes or tumultous market episodes and current macroeconomic events.\nWhat will be the US unemployment rate after the next volatile market episode?\nThis question resolves as the civilian unemployment rate [reported by the BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) in units of percentages 6 months after the first month in which the VIX index closes above 50 in any day of that month.\nTo illustrate with an example, if the VIX closes above 50 for the first time after this question opens on some day in March 2032, this question would resolve as the civilian unemployment rate reported by the BLS for September 2032.\nIf the VIX doesn't close above 50 at any time until the resolution date of this question, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:21.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8509/will-meta-see-10%25E2%2581%25B9-active-users-by-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [the promo video of Meta Platforms](https://youtu.be/4zppKxiIPiA?t=154) Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people. Will this happen?\n\nContext\n-------\n\n---Facebook in its [Q3 2021 Earnings](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q3/FB-09.30.2021-Exhibit-99.1.pdf) reports 1.93 billion daily users and 2.91 billion monthly users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098630/global-mobile-augmented-reality-ar-users/), there were 0.6 billion worldwide mobile AR users. \n---In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1017008/united-states-vr-ar-users/), \"in 2018, 59.5 million people used AR at least once per month in the United States. The corresponding figure for 2022 was forecast to reach over 95 million users.\" \nWill Meta report 1 billion active users by the end of 2031?\nThis question resolves positively when Meta Platforms, Inc. (or company which will be a rebranded version of Metaverse) in its Q3 2031 Earnings (or an analogous document) will report one billion or more (), daily active users on its \"screenless\" platforms (AR or VR glasses, holograms, etc. combined).\nFor a more precise definition of technology being \"screenless\" see [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/).\nRelated questions: - [Date when new tech replaces visual screens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:27.688Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8513/addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf-before-june-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \nWill Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?\nResolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022:\n--- \nthe National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front\n--- \nwho are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces\n--- \nand who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:38.068Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8515/by-2050-genetic-engineering-to-raise-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF in its current form is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\nEmbyro screening to predict/raise IQ [has been attempted](https://www.science.org/content/article/screening-embryos-iq-and-other-complex-traits-premature-study-concludes) since at least 2019, though it remains controversial and its effectiveness remains unknown. Other plausible means of raising IQ with genetic engineering include [gametogenesis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) (a method of regressing cells into stem cells, then turning into sperm/egg cells, in an interative process), and [CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) (editing specific sections of DNA of live organisms with high precision).\nThe potential power and downsides of widespread genetic engineering have been a topic of science fiction for decades, including [Gattaca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca) or the [Deus Ex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex) series, which imagine societies that are stratified into groups of those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel offered the following predictions for the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nSex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal. Superficial genetic upgrades for babies (heterochromatic eyes, for instance) will be a trend among the super rich or pop stars. However, there will be no genetic engineering that improves the fundamentals of human traits like intelligence or athleticism or even anything like attractiveness above and beyond all-natural humans—the available technology will still be focused solely on avoiding downsides, like genetic diseases or disabilities. This will ultimately cure a lot of potential suffering, but not lead to some sci-fi split between the “geners” and the “normals,” or anything ridiculous like that.\nBy 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?\nThis question resolves positively if by January 1, 2050, there is at least one commercially available genetic engineering technique shown to raise a patient's IQ by 10 or more points on average. This procedure must be effective on >66% of the public; an intervention focused on patients with [down syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_syndrome), for example, does not qualify. Studies from medical journals, statements by government agencies or public health officials may be used as resolution sources if Metaculus Admins find them to be credible.\nA procedure can be considered \"commercially available\" if it is available to the general public for a total cost of less than 25% of the median household income for that nation in that year. \"Genetic engineering techniques\" include embryo selection, gametogenesis, gene therapy, CRISPR editing, and other forms of gene editing or artificial selection. For example in the case of embryo selection, the technique may resolve this question positively if it can select embryos with an average of >10 IQ gain over the median embryo for that patient. Adverse side effects of these procedures are irrelevant for the purposes of this question (with the exception that the patient must typically survive for at least 5 years following the procedure).\nResolution may be delayed up to 2060 to confirm the effectiveness of the genetic engineering techniques. If studies are unclear at this point, the resolution may be delayed, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:43.292Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T18:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T18:57:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8516/50-of-us-adults-own-ar-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\nan enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBy 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).\nWill more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if anytime before January 1, 2050, a credible survey of adults in the US suggests that more than 50% of US adults own any type of personal augmented reality device.\nFor the purposes of this question, a personal augmented reality device is defined as one which is portable and intended to accompany a person from place to place, and whose primary use is in augmented reality functions. \"Augmented reality functions\" are defined as producing digital information and images overlaid over the user's view of their real environment, which update in real time as the user moves and interacts with the digital and physical environment. A handheld smartphone which is occasionally used as an augmented reality device would not qualify (as AR is not its primary use).\nWhere there is reason to believe a survey captures a significant number of devices that do not qualify for question resolution the admins shall use their best judgement or use an alternate survey or method if available, or resolve the question as ambiguous at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:48.462Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T21:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-01T21:14:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8520/sf-building-permits-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "FRED Economic Data [reports](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SANF806BPPRIV) the \"total number of building permits for all structure types\" authorized in the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley area. The following table reports data for recent years,\nYear Permits \n2000\n13959\n2001\n10958\n2002\n12275\n2003\n14547\n2004\n15342\n2005\n15015\n2006\n13390\n2007\n9883\n2008\n6891\n2009\n3474\n2010\n4679\n2011\n5570\n2012\n8909\n2013\n10570\n2014\n9580\n2015\n12284\n2016\n14927\n2017\n16864\n2018\n16761\n2019\n13506\n2020\n10174\nHow many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of total buidling permits for all structure types authorized in the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metropolitan area, according to the methodology used in [this FRED Economic Data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SANF806BPPRIV#0) visualization.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:54:58.990Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8521/number-of-starvation-deaths-in-ethiopia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \nAccording to [UN officials](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58921744), Ethiopian federal forces have been maintaining a blockade of Tigray for most of the war, which has prevented aid from reaching those in need. A [4 November 2021 report](https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/ethiopia/) by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) states that no supplies have gotten into Tigray since 18 October and that aid has also been unable to reach areas of Amhara and Afar where there is ongoing fighting. In total, UNOCHA estimates [5.2 million](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/11/1105072) people are in need of food assistance across the Ethiopian regions of Tigray, Amhara and Afar. \nU.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has [warned](https://apnews.com/article/africa-united-nations-ethiopia-hunger-856afd1d97f95f296176779a3601f6c3) that malnutrition levels have reached the level they were at the start of the [2011 famine in Somalia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_East_Africa_drought). A [2013 study](https://web.archive.org/web/20130512052359/http://www.fews.net/docs/Publications/Somalia_Mortality_Estimates_Final_Report_1May2013_upload.pdf) estimates that the 2011 famine Somalia resulted in \"258,000 (244,000 to 273,000) excess deaths...between October 2010 and April 2012 inclusive.\"\nHow many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the point estimate of the first credible study that estimates excess deaths in Ethiopia due to starvation that are attributable to the Tigray War. Such a study must not be published until at least six months after conclusion of the Tigray War. \nNote that the United Nations has not yet declared the situation in Ethiopia to be a famine. Whether or not it does is irrelevant for this question. \nIf better estimates are released after this question resolution, we will re-resolve to the more accurate figure.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:04.169Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/constitutionality-of-bank-secrecy-act/) \nThe Bank Secrecy Act was passed into law in 1970 and serves as the legislative bedrock for America’s system of financial surveillance. Subsequent legislation and administrative actions have fortified a system of mandated information gathering and sharing by custodial financial entities such as banks. Government actors may access this information, often without warrants, for the stated purpose of rooting our money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism.\nThe BSA was put before the Supreme Court for [constitutional violations](https://www.coincenter.org/app/uploads/2020/05/e-cash-dex-constitution.pdf), notably of the 1st, 4th, and 5th amendments, but these challenges were shot down on mostly procedural grounds. Justice Thurgood Marshall, in a dissent to the California Bankers Association v. Shultz challenge to the BSA, noted serious problems with the Court’s procedural treatment of 4th Amendment problems, while Justice William J. Brennan noted the extreme breadth of information that could be granted through financial surveillance, even with the limited technology of the time. Furthermore, recent comments by Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Neil Gorsuch indicate a willingness to review “third party doctrine” precepts upon which such surveillance is founded.\nHowever, the clear direction in legislation and regulation is to build upon the BSA and expand financial surveillance, indicating a lack of concern about immediate constitutional challenge.\nWhen will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?\nThis question will resolve on the date when the Supreme Court issues a verdict on a case which challenges any part of the Bank Secrecy Act of 1970. The decision of the court must make a judgement on the constitutionality of the BSA; dismissing the case on procedural grounds (for example) would not resolve the question. This question will resolve on the date of the verdict, regardless of whether the court finds the law constitutional or not.\nIf this does not happen by 2070-01-01, this question resolves as >2070-01-01.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:09.339Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025-01-20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8523/irs-designates-crypto-miners-brokers-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise.\nThe bill would create a new provision stating that digital asset “brokers” would need to issue IRS forms to certain users to obtain underpaid taxes. But the definition of broker would have included “any person who…is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This language would include not only third-party service providers analogous to Bank Secrecy Act-regulated entities, but also passive network developers, miners, and node operators who have no access to the required data to issue the tax forms to begin with.\nSurprisingly, the nascent cryptocurrency policy community quickly and effectively [pushed back](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/) against the provisions. A series of dueling amendments that would have expanded and pared back which groups should qualify as “brokers” resulted in a rather arcane [legislative discussion](https://decrypt.co/77841/biden-crypto-infrastructure-bill-amendments) over the distinctions between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms. Reports emanated that [high-ranking operatives](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ncr-v8A_bA) such as [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/25/yellen-crypto-bitcoin-defi/) were lobbying aggressively in favor of the expansive broker language. Despite several days of textual back-and-forth, the parties did not reach a compromise and it was [sent back to the House](https://reason.com/2021/08/10/how-a-sneaky-crypto-crackdown-plot-blew-up-the-infrastructure-bill/) where it has remained.\nWill Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025-01-20?\nThe question will resolve positively if, by 2025-01-20, miners, cryptocurrency developers, node operators, or validators (under proof-of-stake blockchains) are required to issue tax reports (such as 1099s) to the parties of the transactions they mediate. This will resolve positively if this requirement is effective under US law (though compliance or enforcement of this law need not actually occur to resolve positively). This may resolve positively even if this provision is not part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but it is part of some future legislation signed before 2025-01-20.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:14.482Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-22T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8524/2022-budget-includes-new-bank-surveillance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Biden administration’s “[Build Back Better](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text)” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. \nIn the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals [worth more than $600](https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-irs-push-democrats-to-require-banks-to-report-annual-account-flows-11631727020), purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was [raised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-bank-reporting-democrats-11634658560) to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000.\nBanking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities.\nWill Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?\nThis question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision.\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:19.603Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8525/musk-sell-5-of-tesla-stock-by-july-1st-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457064697782489088) on November 6th 2021,\nMuch is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock.\nDo you support this?\nI will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes\nAs of the time of writing this question, \"Yes\" is winning by 55.6% to 44.4%.\nWill Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if before July 1st 2022 credible media reports that Elon Musk has sold more than 5% of his Tesla shares, as compared to the number of shares he owned at the time of his Twitter poll, after taking into account [stock dilution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_dilution) and [stock splits](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp) which may occur in the meantime. If Musk gains additional shares in the company (eg. by exercising stock options), he will need to sell an additional amount to reach the 5% decrease at the time of the twitter poll.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:24.934Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-06T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-14T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8526/constitutionality-of-bank-secrecy-act/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/) \nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_%281976%29), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.\nIf the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?\nIf by 2070-01-01, the Supreme Court of The United States hears a case which challenges the constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act of 1970, this question will resolve positively if the court decides it is constitutional. If the BSA is challenged on multiple points and the court finds any part of the act unconstitutional, this question will resolve negatively. If no qualifying cases are decided before 2070-01-01, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf a case is dismissed or ruled on procedural grounds, such cases will be ignored for the purposes of this question. If the BSA is repealed through legislation, this question will resolve ambiguously \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:30.058Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Peter Thiel's net worth be in January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8528/peter-thiels-net-worth-in-january-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Peter Andreas Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), born 11 October 1967, is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and venture capitalist. A co-founder of PayPal, Palantir Technologies, and Founders Fund, and investor in many other ventures, he is a well-known figure in the US technology scene.\nAs of November 7 2021, Thiel has an estimated net worth of US $7.24 billion according to [the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/peter-a-thiel/)\nWhat will Peter Thiel's net worth be in January 2030?\nThis question resolves as Peter Thiel's net worth, in billions of nominal US dollars, on January 1 2030, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. If (and only if) that index is no longer available, this question resolves as his estimated net worth according to Forbes on that date. If Forbes also does not provide an estimate of his net worth on that date, the most recent credible media reports of his net worth (as judged by Metaculus admins) should be consulted. \nIf Thiel is no longer alive on 1 January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously. If there are no credible reports of Thiel's net worth within one year prior to 1 January 2030, the question will also resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:35.196Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8529/2025-metaculus-meetup-attendance-at-taco-bell/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Earlier this year, in the comment section of a [question about the price of Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/) several Metaculites agreed to meet at Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on January 1st 2025. \n[I asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/#comment-53716):\nAnyone interested in an in-person Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?\nTo which [Pablo responded](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/#comment-53851):\n@Tamay I hereby promise to fly to Westfield, Indiana to attend this important meeting, regardless of where in the world I happen to be on the previous day.\nSeveral other Metaculus users indicated interest in attending the unofficial Metaculus meetup\nHow many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?\nThis question resolves according to the best available evidence that indicates how many Metaculus users (with accounts that are at least 1 year old), attended the Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana.\nThe meetup may be rescheduled, but no sooner or later than 7 days from January 1, 2025. If the Westfield Indiana Taco bell is no longer the store used in the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/), the meetup may take place at the secondary location used to resolve the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:55:40.418Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8533/xi-jinping-leading-china-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.\nWill Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?\nThis question will resolve positive if either:\n---Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \n---Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve negative if: \n---Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2030. \nThis question will resolve ambiguous if:\n---China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:01.845Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8534/north-korean-icbm-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):\n\"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\"\nSee also [a list of North Korean missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests).\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)\nNote that:\n--- \nThe missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice\n--- \nEither a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution\n--- \nFor positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is capable of hosting a nuclear warhead\nSee also:\n*[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:07.242Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8535/nprs-reaction-on-weapons-employment-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThis question resolves positively if the next Nuclear Posture Review (released between the time of this question opening and 31-12-2023) includes clear affirmation that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if a new Nuclear Posture Review is not publicly available by 2024 (but that seems very unlikely).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:12.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8536/russia-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that Russia has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:17.530Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8537/china-on-nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that China has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the President of the People's Republic of China; the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China; the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress; head of one of the Chinese military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Chinese diplomacy official such as the Chinese Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:22.656Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US car sales will be all-electric in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8538/-of-car-sales-all-electric-in-us-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about electric cars in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nEntertainment systems will be more high def, cars will be all electric, houses will be smart, and even food will taste better and be more locally grown.\nElectric cars have been making up an increasing portion of new car sales in the US in recent years, but data shows electric cars still make up a small fraction of new light-duty vehicle sales each year. According to a [report released by the Argonne National Laboratory](https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/06/167626.pdf)\nOver 306,000 plug-in electric vehicles [PEVs] were sold in the United States in 2020, a 4% decrease from 2019. Sales of all-electric BEVs grew 4% to 239,000, while PHEV sales decreased by 25% to 67,000. Relative to the total light-duty vehicle (LDV) market, total PEV shares grew from 1.9% in 2019 to 2.1% in 2020, as the overall LDV sales reduced by nearly 15% in 2020. \nThe same report defines PEVs as plug-in electric vehicles, and BEV and PHEV in the quote as follows\nThere are two types of PEVs: battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by electricity, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have a battery as well as a separate internal combustion engine for extended driving range.\nUsing the numbers above, we can estimate that BEVs were approximately 1.6% of all LDV sales in the US in 2020.\nMonthly updates from the Argonne National Laboratory show PEVs sold as a share of LDVs sold [increasing to above 3.5% in 2021](https://www.anl.gov/es/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates) (using data through September of 2021).\nThe Argonne National Laboratory defines LDVs as vehicles weighing less than 10,000 pounds.\nBEVs were 1.4% of new vehicle sales in the US in 2020 according to IEA. [They projected](https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer) that under a scenario of current market trends and government policies (their [STEPS scenario](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/prospects-for-electric-vehicle-deployment#abstract)), BEVs would be 10.7% of new US vehicle sales in 2030, whereas under their policy recommendations scenario ([SDS](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021/prospects-for-electric-vehicle-deployment#abstract)), the same figure would be 36.3%.\nWhat percentage of US car sales will be all-electric in 2050?\nThis will resolve as the percentage of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) sold in the United States which are all-electric (BEVs), according to the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer). For the purposes of this question, LDVs are vehicles weighing less than 10,000 pounds and battery electric vehicles must be all-electric vehicles.\nIf vehicle classifications or definitions change, the intent of the resolution criteria is to align closely with the definitions and data described in the question background, and Metaculus Admins may use their discretion to determine if sources are in sufficient alignment with the intent of the question. If the IEA no longer publishes relevant data, the closest similar credible estimate may be used, or may be resolved ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:27.830Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:23:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T15:23:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8539/nuclear-weapons-employment-by-ai-globally/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nBy 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?\nThe question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that such a state has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the head of state; the head of the state's ministry of defense or equivalent; a similarly important and relevant officia; head of one of the state's military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the state's nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important diplomacy official from that state such as the state's ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:32.947Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"A number of catastrophic events could cause a roughly 10% global agricultural shortfall, including a medium-sized asteroid/comet impact (Napier 2008), a large but not super volcanic eruption, full-scale nuclear war if the impacts are less than anticipated (Turco et al. 1990), regional nuclear war (for example, India-Pakistan (Ozdogan et al. 2013)), abrupt regional climate change (Valdes 2011), complete global loss of bees as pollinators (Aizen et al. 2009), a super crop pest or pathogen, and coincident extreme weather, resulting in multiple breadbasket failures (Bailey et al. 2015).\"\nBut there's uncertainty about how likely each of those events is, how likely a 10% global agricultural shortfall is given each event, and how likely it is that such a shortfall will occur for some other reason.\nWill there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?\nThe question will be resolved positively if the yearly total global agricultural crop yield for the calendar year 2022 or 2023 (as reported by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) is at least 10% lower than agricultural production in the previous calendar year (2021 or 2022, respectively) was. \nThe reason for the shortfall does not matter (e.g., it does not have to be related to nuclear conflict).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:38.116Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8541/iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a \"by 2023\" version of this same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/).\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. On 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, [President-Elect Biden stated that](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-01/features/returning-progress-iran) if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa-zarif-idUKKBN27X340) the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions against Iran to the extent previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2024-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2024-01-01; a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:43.264Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8542/at-least-one-hemp-attack-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon.\"\nOther questions in this tournament ask [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/); how many such attacks would occur, if any do; and whether, if one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, they'd cause a total of >10 million fatalities. This question asks how likely a HEMP attack is if there's any offensive nuclear detonation, to get a clearer sense of how correlated the two types of risks are. For further context on this question, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).\nWill at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation by 2024. It resolves positively if there is both a HEMP attack and an offensive nuclear detonation (not counting the HEMP attack) by 2024. This requires that, by 31 January 2024, at least three credible sources report each of those events having occurred between this question opening and the end of 2023. What order these events occur in and how close together in time they occur will not be taken into account.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either: 1) a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or 2) a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage). In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:48.388Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US children will be living with a single parent in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8543/us-kids-with-single-parents-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data shows that the share of children living with a single parent in the United States has increased substantially since 1968, from [13% in 1968 to 25% in 2017](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/27/about-one-third-of-u-s-children-are-living-with-an-unmarried-parent/). The US Census Bureau also found 26.4% of children lived with a single parent in a [2021 survey (Table C2)](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2021/demo/families/cps-2021.html). Pew found the US to have the [highest percentage of children in single-parent households](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/12/12/u-s-children-more-likely-than-children-in-other-countries-to-live-with-just-one-parent/) (23%) over any other country surveyed in 2019.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about families with children in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nA near majority of children will be being raised in single-parent homes by 2050.\nWhat percentage of US children will be living with a single parent in 2050?\nThis will resolve according to figures published for year 2050 by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/families-and-living-arrangements.html). If the US Census Bureau does not publish any data for this year, other demography statistics by a US goverment agency may be used. If no such statistics exist, Metaculus Admins may use one or more estimates made by credible research organizations, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\nFor the purposes of this question, a child will be considered \"living with a single parent\" if they live with only one of their biological parents, regardless of whether they live with other adults in their household or if their parent is the householder. Guardians will not be considered \"single parents\" for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:53.526Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T16:15:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8544/prediction-of-our-community-on-nuclear-attack/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/). If that does happen, how predictable will it be in the days beforehand? To what extent will it be a bolt from the blue?\nIf there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for at least a day during the week before the detonation?\nThis question conditions on [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/) resolving positively; that is, this question resolves ambiguously unless that other one resolves positively. \nThis question resolves positively if:\n1-- \nThat other question resolves positively, and\n2-- \nFor a full 24 hour period sometime in the 168 hours (i.e., 7 times 24) before the first detonation that resolves that other question positively, the Community Prediction on that other question is greater than 20%\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:56:58.634Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8545/-of-missile-test-events-by-north-korea/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nAccording to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):\n\"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons.\"\nAnd as of January 2021, [BBC wrote](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55598880) that Kim Jong-un:\n\"pledged to expand North Korea's nuclear weapons arsenal and military potential. [...]His speech outlined a list of desired weapons including long-range ballistic missiles capable of being launched from land or sea and 'super-large warheads'. North Korea has managed to significantly advance its arsenal despite being subject to strict economic sanctions.\"\nHow many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?\nThis question will be resolved based on the missile test events reported in the [\"Timeline\" table of the Wikipedia page \"List of North Korean missile tests\"] ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_K…](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests#Timeline)). Only events dated between 2022-1-1 and 2023-12-31 (inclusive) will be counted toward resolution. Note that this counts the number of events, not the number of missiles; for example, the September 15, 2021 launch of two missiles would count as just one event.\nIf there are no edits that change the number of relevant events in January 2024, the 1 January 2024 version of the page is used. If there are edits that change the number of reported events, we take the number that has been on the current version of the page for the longest cumulative time during January 2024. E.g., if for 5 days the page lists 2 events, then for 10 days it lists 3 events, and then for the remaining 16 days is lists 2 events again, the question will resolve as 2 events. This will be based on the page's edit history. \nIf the page no longer exists in January 2024 or has changed form to the extent that the number of test events cannot be extracted from it, credible media reports will be assessed instead.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8534/north-korean-icbm-before-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:04.031Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state leave NATO by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8546/withdrawal-from-nato-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):\n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill any state leave NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is a part of NATO at the start of this tournament has left NATO by 2023-12-31. This requires that the state has actually left NATO by that date, rather than merely announcing its intention to leave or beginning the process of leaving. \nThis will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the state no longer being included on the member list on NATO's official website.\nIf a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and none of those successor states are NATO members, that would resolve this question positively. In contrast, if a current NATO member fragments and at least one successor state remains a NATO member but at least one successor state is not a NATO member, that would not count toward a positive resolution.\nFor simplicity, in the unlikely event that a state leaves NATO by 2024 but then also rejoins by 2024, this question will still resolve positively, since the state had left NATO by 2024. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:09.219Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.\nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state that the US has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that the US would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the US President; Secretary of Defense; Secretary of State; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; or the head of one of the US's armed services. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:14.430Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8548/comprehensive-test-ban-treaty-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Kimball (2020)](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/test-ban-treaty-at-a-glance) writes:\n\"The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits “any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion” anywhere in the world. The treaty was opened for signature in September 1996, and has been signed by 185 nations and ratified by 170. The treaty cannot enter into force until it is ratified by 44 specific nations [listed by name in Annex 2], eight of which have yet to do so: China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, Iran, Egypt, and the United States.\"\nHow many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the number of states out of the 8 listed above that have ratified the CTBT by 31-12-2023. Resolution will be based on credible sources published by 31-01-2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:19.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an additional state join NATO by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8549/new-member-state-in-nato-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\nSince its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"\nWill an additional state join NATO by 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if any state that is not a part of NATO at the start of this tournament becomes a member of NATO effective no later than 2023-12-31. This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:24.782Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021. \nSee also:\n---[By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/) \nBy 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?\nThe question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state Russia has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that Russia would rejoin if some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:29.899Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8551/open-philanthropys-2022-nuclear-risk-grants/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic. And see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/1KiNLb3eKIZBAz3lGpkuOJM4kskQWuGYKqcDwW1rrpnY/edit#) for a draft writeup that could inform and be informed by forecasts on this question.\nSince Open Philanthropy was founded, I (Michael Aird) believe it has made a total of five grants that had a substantial focus on (a) reducing nuclear risk and/or (b) helping figure out how much people should prioritize reducing nuclear risk (both of which I'll lump together as \"nuclear risk reduction\").[1] The total size of these grants was $9,156,029. \n[I estimate](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KiNLb3eKIZBAz3lGpkuOJM4kskQWuGYKqcDwW1rrpnY/edit#) that these five grants account for ~half of all funding from the [EA](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/) community to the nuclear risk space between 2011 and 2021. These grants were also sufficient to make Open Phil one of the largest US providers of philanthropic funding to the nuclear risk space [in 2017](https://peaceandsecurityindex.org/year/2017/issues/nuclear-issues/) and probably also in 2020. \nForecasts of how much funding Open Phil will grant to nuclear risk projects in 2022 should provide some evidence about:\n--- \nHow valuable it'd be for other EA-aligned funders to devote resources to this area\n--- \nHow much funding might be available for EA community members considering careers or projects in this area\n--- \nHow large a player Open Phil will be in the nuclear risk landscape\n--- \nTo what extent Open Phil will consider nuclear risk to be an area worth people focusing on\nWhat will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?\nThis question will resolve on March 1, 2023 as my best guess based on:\n1) Searching the term \"nuclear\" in Open Phil's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) for the year 2022.\n2) Making a judgement call about which of the grants that show up appear to have been at least 20% focused on nuclear risk.\n3) Perhaps learning of other Open Phil grants that were made in 2022, that appear at least 20% focused on nuclear risk, but whose grant write-ups didn't mention the term \"nuclear\". (But I think this is unlikely to come up.) \n4) Tallying up the size of all of these grants (taking the total size even if a grant was less than 100% focused on nuclear risk).\nAs an indication of how I'll make the necessary judgement calls: For the period up to September 2021, step 1 revealed the five grants described in the footnote, as well as several others that, in step 2, I decided were less than 20% focused on nuclear risk (for example, grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative's biosecurity projects). And no additional relevant grants were revealed by step 3. \nThe rationale for resolving the question on March 1, 2023 is that there is typically a delay between Open Phil making a grant and publishing a grant writeup.\nFootnote\n[1] The five grants were the following:\n--- \n[$100,000 to Future of Life Institute in 2016 for general support](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/future-life-institute-general-support), with Open Phil noting that one of FLI's major activities for that year would be a nuclear weapons policy campaign. \n--- \n[$2,982,206 to Rutgers University in 2017](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/rutgers-university-nuclear-conflict-climate-modeling).\n--- \n[$109,063 to Penn State University in 2019](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/scientific-research/miscellaneous/penn-state-university-emergency-food-research).\n--- \n[$3,000,000, again to Rutgers University, in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/rutgers-university-nuclear-conflict-climate-modeling-2020).\n--- \n[$3,064,660, again to Penn State University, in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/scientific-research/miscellaneous/penn-state-university-research-on-emergency-food-resilience-2020).\n[2] To see the relevant data, go to [https://peaceandsecurityindex.org](https://peaceandsecurityindex.org), click \"Start searching\", select \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" from \"SUBJECT AREA\", and click \"List\". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking \"U.S. Federal Funders\". (But note that, unfortunately, this data source also tracks many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term \"nuclear\". These include medical research grants that use the term \"nuclear\" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:35.079Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-28T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many staff at EA orgs other than ALLFED will be primarily focused on nuclear risk in December 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8552/ea-orgs-focused-on-nuclear-risk-in-dec-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic. And see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/1KiNLb3eKIZBAz3lGpkuOJM4kskQWuGYKqcDwW1rrpnY/edit#) for a draft writeup that could inform and be informed by forecasts on this question.\nThe key reason this question matters is that EA community member attention (and EA org staff time specifically) devoted to nuclear risk reduction likely faces diminishing marginal returns. Thus, lower forecasts on this question would likely push in favour of EA community members trying to work on nuclear risk reduction, while higher forecasts would likely push in favour of working on [other issues](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/) (though either push might only be small, and would be complicated by other factors[1]).\nHow many staff at EA orgs other than ALLFED will be primarily focused on nuclear risk in December 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of staff members at EA-aligned orgs other than ALLFED who, as of 1 December 2022, report that the main focus of their work at that time is (1) reducing nuclear risk, (2) working out how much to prioritize reducing nuclear risk, and/or (3) causing/helping other people to do such work. This could include (among other things) researchers, policy advisors, community builders, and people working in operations. \nFor the purposes of this question, EA-aligned orgs include CSER, EA Funds, GCRI, FHI, FLI, Founders Pledge, Longview, Metaculus, Open Philanthropy, Rethink Priorities, and the Survival and Flourishing Fund, but does not include the Nuclear Threat Initiative or the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). Feel free to ask whether other specific orgs would be considered EA-aligned orgs for this question.\nTo resolve this question, on 1 December 2022, I (Michael Aird) will reach out to all people that I'm aware might meet that description to ask if they would indeed say that that is the main focus of their work at that time. If necessary, I will reach out to their colleagues to ask to be put in touch and/or ask the colleagues whether they think the person meets this description. \nI expect that I'll be aware of all people who might plausibly meet that description at that time. (I'm well-connected in the EA/longtermist community and I believe I am currently the only person who meets that description.) If Metaculus users point out other people who might meet that description, I will also reach out to them.\nStaff members exclude volunteers, interns, consultants, and advisors, but include paid employees working at least 20 hours per week for that org on an at least one year contract.\nFootnote\n[1] One complicating factor is that this question could also be seen as a proxy for what EA community members will later believe about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction relative to other issues. It could make sense to defer somewhat to that predicted future belief (though we should be wary of the proxy being imperfect and of [information cascades](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/information-cascades)).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:40.212Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-30T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8553/donor-giving-10m-of-nuclear-risk-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.\nAs far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:\n--- \nThe John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)\n--- \nSince 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year\n--- \nNo other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)\nI base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012.\nWill a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 31 March 2023, credible sources indicate that a donor that is not a government (and not one of the aforementioned Carnegie and MacArthur foundations) has in 2022 given out more than $10 million in grants that the donor sees as primarily relevant to nuclear weapons risks (including proliferation, disarmament, etc.). These sources could include a foundation's own grants database, the Peace and Security Funding Map data (with an additional check to ensure the grants are indeed related to nuclear risk[2]), or news sources. It is not necessary that all such sources show that this has happened (though they shouldn't explicit deny that it has happened), since some sources may simply fail to report things or be out of date.\nFootnote\n[1] To see the relevant data, go to [https://peaceandsecurityindex.org](https://peaceandsecurityindex.org), click \"Start searching\", select \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" from \"SUBJECT AREA\", and click \"List\". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking \"U.S. Federal Funders\". \n[2] Unfortunately, the Peace and Security Funding Map tracks under \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term \"nuclear\". These include medical research grants that use the term \"nuclear\" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Therefore, if the only credible source that can be found that suggests this question should resolve positively if this source, I'll check whether it does indeed appear that the funder made >$10m in nuclear risk related grants, and I'll explain my reasoning publicly and invite criticism.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:46.018Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8554/women-get-70-of-bachelors-degrees-us-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school year was [34.2%, increasing to 57.4% for the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_318.10.asp?current=yes). Some expect this trend to continue. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about female educational attainment in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nBy 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. This trend has been consistent for decades now, so I think there is good probability it will continue. In 2021, [women get the majority of all degrees](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/the-degrees-of-separation-between-the-genders-in-college-keeps-growing/2019/10/25/8b2e5094-f2ab-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html), from high school degrees all the way up to graduate school degrees. The access of billions of women to this socioeconomic opportunity will continue its building momentum. As of now something close to ~60% of all college degrees go to women: by 2050, it will be well above 70% [ ... ]\nWill women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?\nThis resolve positively if data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) shows that in the 2049-2050 school year women were awarded at least 70% of all bachelor's degrees in that year. If the NCES no longer publishes relevant data the highest credible estimate from other sources may be used. \"Female\" or \"women\" will be as defined by the NCES, or if the NCES no longer uses the terms male and female the sex or gender definition used by NCES will be used, so long as the ultimate representation represents either the share of degrees granted to those identifying as female or as women at time of graduation or who were female at birth. If alternate data sources are used any definition of female or woman that conforms to these resolution criteria is acceptable.\nIf bachelor's degrees no longer exist in a form comparable to the definition used by NCES for the data in the question background, admins may use their judgement to resolve based on statistics for similar post-secondary degrees, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:51.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T17:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T17:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8555/women-earn-more-than-men-in-2050-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many studies have been attempted to measure the [gender pay gap in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_pay_gap_in_the_United_States). The [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) found median women's wages to be about 81% of men's. Some of this difference can be attributed to confounding variables (such as differences in types of occupation), though the unexplained remaining gap could be attributed to discrimination.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about women in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n...while women’s salaries are not as high on average as men’s now, this has already [switched in urban areas](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/14/a-different-kind-of-gender-gap-seven-places-where-women-earn-more-than-men), which is generally a predictive indicator, and therefore women’s wages in the workplace will indeed be greater than men in terms of their salaries by 2050.\nWill median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if the median usual weekly real earnings for wage and salary workers age 16 and over are higher for women than men in the fourth quarter of 2050, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](http://www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm). The data since 1979 is available in [this FRED chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) for men and women. If BLS stops publishing the relevant economic data, other credible data that provides a similar comparison between the median wages of adult men and women may be used.\nIf FRED no longer distinguishes data for men and women or definitions have changed, any data that compares wages on the basis of either sex at birth or current sex or gender identity as may be used for resolution. Where different estimates would result in a different resolution, Metaculus Admins may resolve according to the most high-quality data or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:57:56.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-12-31T19:31:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8556/majority-female-us-senators-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\nBy 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an elected official.\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\nIn the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.\nWill over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?\nThis question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:01.560Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:42:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the top marginal federal income tax rate by in the USA in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8557/top-marginal-income-tax-rate-in-us-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The top marginal federal income tax rate is a topic of continued debate. In general, Republicans will try to lower this value and Democrats will raise it. Historically, it has fluctuated wildly, [even reaching 94% at the end of World War 2](https://www.statista.com/chart/16782/historic-marginal-income-tax-rates/). In recent years, due to the increasing power of socialism in USA, some speculate the tax marginal tax rate will increase a lot. [Joe Biden proposed raising it slightly (from 37% to 39.6%)](https://smartasset.com/taxes/current-federal-income-tax-brackets), but this has not been put into law so far. Some surveys indicate Americans are OK with raising the top marginal tax ([2019](https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/425422-a-majority-of-americans-support-raising-the-top-tax-rate-to-70)) as was proposed by Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.\nWhat will the top federal marginal income tax rate by in the USA in 2030?\nThis quesion resolves as the top federal marginal income tax rate in the United States on January 1st 2030, according to reliable sources.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:06.692Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8558/polygamy-legal-in-us-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that [polyamory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, [polyamory is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polyamory)\nthe state or practice of having more than one open romantic relationship at a time\nwhile [polygamy is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polygamy)\nmarriage in which a spouse of either sex may have more than one mate at the same time\nCurrently, polygamy is [outlawed federally and in all 50 states in the US](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/is-polygamy-illegal-in-the-united-states-31807). However, [several cities in Massachusetts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) have passed local ordinances [extending the benefits of domestic partnerships to those in polyamorous relationships](https://www.albanyupdate.com/massachusetts-city-provides-legal-recognition-for-polyamorists/).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about polyamory in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nPolyamory, the fastest growing cultural movement when it comes to novel forms of relationships, will continue to increase and become more open in the public eye and likely be legalized nation-wide by 2050.\nWill polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?\nThis resolves positively if any time between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), polygamy is legal federally and in all states in the United States. Resolution may be provided by credible media reports or official US government sources.\nFor the purposes of this question, the legality of polygamy must be indifferent to sex or gender; that is, it should permit both a marriage of one man with multiple women, one woman with multiple men, or any arrangement of legally recognized sexes/genders. Legally-recognized polygamous marriages must allow at least 3 members to be married, though they need not all share equal rights.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:11.882Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T15:08:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX be a trillion-dollar company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8560/trillion-dollar-spacex/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX is among the highest-valued privately held companies in the world. As of October, 2021, the company's [published valuation](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/elon-musks-spacex-valuation-100-billion.html) was 100.3 billion nominal US Dollars. The demand for a stake in the company is high, and its valuation is [expected to continue growing](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/spacex-to-become-more-valuable-than-tesla-morgan-stanley-survey.html).\nWhen will SpaceX be a trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve as the date on which major financial media report that the total valuation of SpaceX and/or any subsidiaries thereof has exceeded one trillion nominal US Dollars. If any component of the company is spun off prior to the date of resolution, their combined market capitalization will comprise the total valuation.\nIf the company currently known as SpaceX is split into two or more companies, this question will resolve as the date on which major financial media report a valuation of any component company such that, when added to any previously reported values of other component companies, the total is in excess of one trillion nominal US Dollars. If any component company is traded on public markets, only the daily closing price will be considered (i.e. this question will not resolve on intra-day highs).\nIf all components of the company currently known as SpaceX should be dissolved for reasons of financial insolvency, or otherwise cease operations prior to January 1st, 2040, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:22.257Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-21T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-08-07T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8567/lowest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-feb-4th/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have leveled off. [Short-term forecasts](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklycases) from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. However, long term ensemble projections from Scenario Modeling Hub hint at continued decline under scenarios without the emergence of a novel variant. \nThe lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of [129](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhat will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:27.429Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-09T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8570/highest-daily-case-timing-in-va-before-feb-4/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have leveled off. [Short-term forecasts](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklycases) from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. However, long term ensemble projections from Scenario Modeling Hub hint at continued decline under scenarios without the emergence of a novel variant. \nThe highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of [6166](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhen will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:32.640Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-09T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brian Riedl win a bet that average interest paid on US federal debt exceeds 4.6% by 2051?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8572/riedl-bets-cole-about-higher-interest-rates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Brian Riedl](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/brian-riedl) is a senior fellow at the [Manhattan Institute](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about), a think tank which describes its mission as follows\n...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.\nAlan Cole blogs about the economy at [Full Stack Economics](https://fullstackeconomics.com/about/) and is a former senior economist with the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress where he advised Senator Mike Lee (R-UT).\nOn November 9, 2021, Brian Riedl [proposed the following bet](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458195379560853514)\nI'm willing to bet you that the average interest rate paid on the federal debt exceeds 4.6% at some point within 30 years (CBO assumes it gradually rises to 4.6% by 2051).\nAlan Cole accepted. [They agreed](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458197815130300425) to resolve the bet based on the average interest rate as currently calculated by CBO in its economical historical data.\nIn [The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038) published by the CBO in March of 2021, the CBO projects\n...the average interest rate on federal debt initially decreases from 1.4 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2024 and then increases to 4.6 percent by 2051.\nWill Brian Riedl win his bet with Alan Cole regarding the interest rate paid on the federal debt?\nThis resolves positively if Brian Riedl wins the bet and negatively if Alan Cole wins. In the event the bet is not resolved in a timely manner upon apparent satisfaction of the bet terms or a situation appears ambiguous under the terms of the bet, the resolution criteria in the fine print will be used for resolution.\nUnder the relevant conditions described in the resolution criteria above, this resolves positively if the actual average interest rate on federal debt as reported by the CBO exceeds 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051. If the method of calculation of the average interest rate on federal debt is substantially revised prior to resolution this resolves ambiguously. The resolution date for this question is December 31, 2052, any CBO publication prior to that date showing the actual average interest rate on federal debt exceeded 4.6% prior to January 1st, 2051 will resolve this question positively. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:37.838Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T15:38:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T15:38:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8573/30-of-fortune-500-ceos-non-white-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Racial and ethnic diversity in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/) has steadily increased, but minorities are still [underrepresented at the senior and executive level of US companies](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/companies-are-making-bold-promises-about-greater-diversity-theres-a-long-way-to-go.html).\nSome have speculated that this is likely to change. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about diversity in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n[Princeton’s incoming class for 2021 is 68% non-white](https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/06/extraordinary-year-princeton-offers-admission-1498-students-class-2025#:~:text=Princeton%20University%20has%20offered%20admission,increase%20from%2017%25%20last%20year.). In fact, currently across the Ivy League (except Dartmouth), whites are significantly underrepresented in their incoming student bodies in proportion to the overall population. This trend of outperformance by minorities in the upper echelons of society like at elite universities, major corporations, and in creative endeavors (books published, movies starred in, etc), will continue and intensify—even just by demographics alone 2050 America will itself be majority non-white.\nEach year Fortune magazine publishes the [Fortune 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_500), a list of the top 500 US companies by revenue. [Richard L. Zweigenhaft](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/teaching/zweigenhaft.html), Dana Professor of Psychology at Guilford College, [published data showing](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html) that the share of Fortune 500 CEOs who are not white males has been increasing over time. According to his numbers for 2020, 92.6% of Fortune 500 CEOs are white.\nWill less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?\nThis resolves positively if a credible estimate indicates that at most 70% of the CEOs of the Fortune 500 list for the year 2050 are non-Hispanic white. In the event Fortune does not publish a list of top 500 companies for 2050 other credible lists of the top 500 US companies in the year 2050 may be used for resolution. If credible estimates disagree, the estimate indicating the lowest proportion of non-Hispanic white CEOs will be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:43.039Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T19:02:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8574/number-of-nuclear-weapons-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the Federation of American Scientists there were [13,150 nuclear warheads in existence in 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)*. This number includes retired warheads. [Nuclear stockpiles](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-nuclear-warheads-in-the-inventory-of-the-nuclear-powers) peaked in 1986 at an estimated 64,400 warheads, and have declined with the end of the [cold war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_war).\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about nuclear weapons in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThere will not be a World War III during this period. Indeed, nuclear disarmament will continue.\n*This number includes 40-50 nuclear warheads for North Korea based on an estimated amount of fissile material available. See footnote r in the linked estimate.\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?\nThis question will resolve according to the total number of nuclear weapons on Earth or within geosynchrous orbit, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), including retired warheads and any other warheads which have not been dismantled. If the FAS no longer publishes relevant estimates, other credible estimates by government agencies or nuclear weapons researchers may be used. Estimates of fissile material may count as well if provided similarly to the estimate for North Korea in the 2021 estimate.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:48.781Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2053-12-31T19:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8579/us-freedom-in-the-world-score-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about geopolitics in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe vision of Fukayama and other proponents of the neoliberal order was that it was only a matter of time until Russia, China, and indeed the rest of the world joined the world at history’s end in the form of a free market democracy. The opposite appears to be happening, and recently the US [has made clear](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/18/more-americans-now-say-government-should-take-steps-to-restrict-false-information-online-than-in-2018/) it is comfortable being more like China and Russia. The truth is that social media has concentrated speech in the hands of a small number of major corporations, which will work hand-in-hand with Western governments to control discourse in a manner the government likes, just as a small number of corporations control the Chinese internet at their government’s bidding. Quite simply, it has become too technologically easy to steer the ship of the culture with the rudder of social media, and putting a hand on the rudder is irresistible for political parties. So there is nowhere to go but toward China, toward stricter speech laws and codes, toward state observation and censorship and policing of debate and ideas. Western political parties are like two people in a fight who have both seen a gun lying on the floor and are in the process of leaping to wrestle for it. There is now no chance it does not go off.\nThe [Freedom in the World](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege) report is published annually by [Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/) which tracks civil and political freedoms around the world, ranking 210 nations in 2021. The index has been published since 1973 and gave the US a score of 83/100 (where 100 is maximally free, and 0 is oppressed). Some other figures from the 2021 ranking:\n---China recieved a score of 9/100 \n---Russia recieved a score of 20/100 \n---The average score was 56.2/100 \n---The median score was 60.5/100 \nWhat will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?\nThis question will resolve as the US' overall score out of 100 according to the 2050 [Freedom in the World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege) by Freedom House. If the Human Freedom Index is no longer being published by Freedom House or a successor organization, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf a significant methodology change occurs such that comparisons between years are no longer meaningful, Metaculus Admins may resolve ambiguously at their discretion. If Freedom House no longer uses a scoring out of 100, scores can be re-scaled to a 0-100 scale if this is in line with eg. the methodology of 2021, where component scores are summed to a 100-point scale.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:58:59.204Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2041-01-01T03:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T03:11:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8582/smoking-and-sex-less-prevalent-in-us-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nAll socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.\nA survey from Gallup finds that [16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/353225/smoking-vaping-remain-steady-low.aspx). And an [article in the Washington Post](https://archive.md/p3uiO) reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018.\nWill smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if any credible surveys of US adults in the year 2050 report that the share of adults who have smoked in the past week and the share of adults who have had sex in the past week were both lower than in the year 2021. Comparisons between 2050 and 2021 must be of similar methodology (see fine print) to count towards resolution. If no comparable surveys can be found for both smoking and sex by the resolution date of December 31, 2054, this resolves ambiguously. This resolves positively if any credible surveys would result in positive resolution, conflicting surveys will be considered irrelevant.\nRegarding similar methodology, if a survey in 2021 includes e-cigarettes and a survey from 2050 does not the surveys would not be considered to have similar methodology. However, different methodologies can still be acceptable if it can be logically deduced that the surveys provide evidence toward resolution. For example, if a survey in 2021 asked whether respondents had sex in the past year and 25% answered no, and a survey in 2050 asked if respondents had sex in the past five years and 40% answered no, it can be deduced that a larger share of adults in 2050 had not had sex in the past year than in 2021 because the five year period would include the past year. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:14.684Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8583/top-movies-in-2050-primarily-franchises/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The prevalence of remakes (such as Aladdin (2019) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by some as [evidence of a lack of ideas or an aversion to risk in Hollywood](https://news.yahoo.com/theres-reason-why-many-remakes-141000996.html). Others see it as a sign of a stagnant culture. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about culture in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\nThe panopticon of social media and state control will lead to cultural stagnation. We already see early hints of this. Consider the remakes of older movies: 2050 will be a stew of remakes of remakes, and familiar and boring intellectual property (like Star Wars) will be king. Creativity vivacity will suffer, especially in the arts and humanities. The coming half-century will be a great one for innovations in finance, engineering, space travel, and artificial intelligence. It will be a terrible one for the arts and basic scientific advancements (like a new physics), for such advancements [require iconoclastic and creative lone individuals](https://rogersbacon.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-myth-of-the-lone). This prediction is already augured by judging the 2000-2020 creative period overall in areas like art, music, literature, film, and scientific discoveries, and finding it severely lacking compared to, say, 1950-1970.\nWill at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?\nThis resolves positively if at least 10 of the top 20 highest grossing movies in the United States in 2050 are part of a franchise which has previously appeared in a movie released in theaters in the United States. Sequels to previously released movies, spin-off movies containing characters from a previously released movie, and in-universe movies (for example a Star Wars movie containing entirely new characters and settings but canonically in the Star Wars universe) would all count as part of an existing franchise previously appearing in a movie. If theaters are no longer the primary form of new movie releases in 2050 the admins may use their discretion to determine an equivalent metric for the highest grossing movies in the US in 2050.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:19.867Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2041-01-01T05:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-07-02T04:37:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk. One question is whether the first detonation would be of a strategic or non-strategic nuclear weapon. [Non-strategic nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) (also known as tactical nuclear weapons) are typically lower yield, shorter-range, and intended for detonating closer to friendly forces or friendly territory than strategic nuclear weapons. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges, as some non-strategic weapons can be used in a strategic context, and vice versa.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation between this question opening and 2024 was a detonation of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024.\nFor the purposes of this question, a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior (away from the war front) against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets, while a non-strategic nuclear is a nuclear weapon designed mostly to be used on a battlefield, near friendly forces, or on or near friendly territory. But note that this question is about the type of weapon, not the type of target; it's conceivable that a non-strategic weapon could be used against the sort of target strategic weapons are designed for or vice versa.\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). \nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:25.004Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 was against a battlefield target. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict (unless credible media reporting widely considers a city to be the primary target of the detonation, in which case it will not be seen as a battlefield target even if it is close to a frontline). If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. \nSee also:\n--- \n[What fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:30.159Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nWill the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 occurs on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city (judged by credible media reports). This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\nCities are defined as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization])([https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities…](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8376/nuclear-weapon-detonations-on-cities/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/)\n--- \n[What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:35.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India, Israel, or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/indiaisraelpakistan-sign-npt-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill India, Israel or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2024, at least one of India, Israel or Pakistan sign the NPT, according to reputable sources. \nThis does not require that any of these states actually [accede](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to the NPT or even that it is seen as likely that they will do so.\nSee also\n---[Will South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/s-sudan-as-the-signatory-of-the-npt-by-2024/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:40.500Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8588/the-npt-withdrawal-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nA country withdrawing from the NPT could perhaps increase the chance of nuclear proliferation, as well as perhaps serving as a signal of rising geopolitical tensions and nuclear risk.\nIn 2003, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT. No other state has withdrawn, though [Iran has recently threatened to do so](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/20/iran-to-quit-npt-if-its-nuclear-programme-referred-to-un-zarif).\nBy 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2024, a country that joined the NPT before November 2021 actively withdraws from the treaty. The question will be resolved based on the data of [United Nations, Office for Disarmament Affairs](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt). \nIf a country that is party to the NPT ceases to exist or is replaced by one or more successor states (as happened with the Soviet Union and Russia, for example) and this results in the country no longer being part of the NPT, that will not be treated as active withdrawal for the purposes of this question, even if the successor state(s) is also not party to the NPT.\nFor the purposes of this question, North Korea will be treated as having already withdrawn, meaning that further actions by North Korea cannot themselves resolve this question positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:45.660Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8589/the-us-re-ratification-of-inf-treaty-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty):\n\"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation) signed in 1987. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers of different ranges, excluding sea-launched missiles. \n[...] Amidst continuing growth of China's missile forces, US President Donald Trump announced on 20 October 2018 that he was withdrawing the US from the treaty due to supposed Russian non-compliance. The United States claimed another reason for the withdrawal was to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within the South China Sea, as China was not a signatory to the treaty. The US formally suspended the treaty on 1 February 2019, and Russia did so on the following day in response. The US formally withdrew from the treaty on 2 August 2019.\"\nThe likelihood of the US re-joining the INF Treaty has implications for nuclear risk both directly (as the treaty plausibly reduces nuclear risk) and as a proxy of geopolitical tensions and the health of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US.\nBy 2024, will the US officially announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?\nThis question resolves positively if, between the question opening and 2024, there are credible reports that US President has announced it (unconditionally) intends to either (1) re-join the INF Treaty or (2) sign a new arms control treaty which the President describes as the successor to the INF Treaty. In the latter case, ratification by 2024 isn't necessary (just signing), and, for simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess the President on whether this treaty really is a successor to the INF Treaty. \nFor positive resolution, it would not be sufficient for the US President to make a conditional announcement, such that as the US intends to re-join the INF Treaty if Russia takes some particular action that Russia is not already taking.\nConversely, positive resolution does not require that the US actually re-join the INF Treaty (or sign a successor treaty) by 2024. Positive resolution also does not require that Russia announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:50.805Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8590/s-sudan-as-the-signatory-of-the-npt-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nThe [United Nations states](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\nFour states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.\nWill South Sudan sign the NPT by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if, between this question opening and 2024, South Sudan signs the NPT, according to reputable sources. \nThis does not require that South Sudan actually [accedes](https://ask.un.org/faq/14594) to the NPT or even that it is seen as likely that South Sudan will do so.\nSee also\n---[Will India, Israel, or Pakistan sign the NPT by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8587/new-signatories-of-npt-by-2024/) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T11:59:55.982Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8599/semaglutide-approval-withdrawn-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2809%2961375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It’s marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it’s reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don’t yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. \nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587%2819%2930249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).\nWill the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for Semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly injection) by 2027-01-01. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:01.110Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8600/oral-semaglutide-approval-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.\nSemaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it’s expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it’s most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.\nOral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks.\nWill oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve an orally-administered form of Semaglutide (AKA Rybelsus) for the purpose of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:06.257Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8601/glp-1-based-drug-approval-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\nUltimately, non-protein “small molecule” drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.\nWill a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n“Small molecule GLP-1-based drug” is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target. For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:11.425Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8602/semaglutidecagrilintide-approval-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2821%2900845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.\nWill the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a paired form of semaglutide and cagrilintide (in any ratio) for the treatment of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company. The approved drug may have any ratio of semaglutide and cagrilintide, but may not include any other active ingredient.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:16.555Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-12T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8605/most-of-us-ic-favor-covid-lab-leak-hypothesis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n---\"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\" \n---\"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\" \n---\"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\" \n---\"China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\" \nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n---\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\" \n---\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\" \n---\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\" \nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"\nBy 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025-01-01 a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one explanation over the other will be considered for the purposes of this question. \nFor example, in the [most recent declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf), four organizations favor the natural origin hypothesis (\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure\"), one IC organization favors the lab origin hypothesis (\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident\"), and three organizations do not favor either hypothesis (\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation\"). So in this case, there appear to be five IC organizations that favor one explanation or the other — four favor the natural origin hypothesis, and one favors the lab origin hypothesis. Since in this case 1/5 does not constitute a majority (>50%) of U.S. IC organizations that express support for either hypothesis, this would resolve negatively.\nNote that probabilistic statements do not have to be made to constitute an IC organization expressing support for one of two hypotheses. Vague verbiage — e.g. \"moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 most likely resulted from\" — would be sufficient to be counted as support for one hypothesis or the other so long as it is clear that one hypothesis is favored over the other. \nThis question will preferentially resolve on the basis of an updated declassified assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, this can also resolve on the basis of at least three credible media reports indicating that a majority of IC organizations favor one explanation over the other.\nA statement by the IC or credible media reports must come out before 2025-01-01 for this to resolve positively — i.e., this will resolve on the basis of when such information/statement comes out publicly and not when the assessment itself was made.\nNot all IC organizations have to express support for either hypothesis or even need to express a view at all. Rather, a simple majority of the IC organizations that do express that they at least somewhat favor one hypothesis over the other will be considered for resolution.\nIf an equal number of IC organizations favor either hypothesis (e.g. 4 favor the lab leak hypothesis and 4 favor the natural origin hypothesis), this resolves negatively.\nThe definitions of the lab leak and natural origin hypotheses used by the IC at time of resolution are what will be considered — e.g., if the IC considers \"sampling\" by members of a Hubei lab to fall under the lab leak hypothesis, then that is the definition Metaculus will use at time of resolution. However, if the definitions are unclear or ambiguous, then we will consider anything involving laboratory personnel who are doing research-related work of any kind to fall under the purview of the lab leak hypothesis, while all else falls under the natural origin hypothesis. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:27.641Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8609/10-agricul-drop-leading-to-400m-fatalities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/). \n[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the optimistic extreme, there could be aggressive government support or charity such that the vast majority of the global poor could generally afford sufficient food. If the crisis were only a year or two, loans could be feasible, either to poor individuals or poor countries. The necessary conservation (less waste, less food to animals, and so on) in the developed countries could be achieved by higher prices or rationing. However, even if mass starvation is averted, generally there would be more malnutrition and increasing susceptibility to disease. The poor would be less able to afford other lifesaving measures, and a pandemic would be more likely. Even if food aid is available, it may not be possible to get the food to the people who need it. Therefore, near zero mortality is unlikely. At the same time, even with no catastrophe, 6.5 million people die of hunger-related diseases per year (UNICEF 2006). On the other extreme, there could be food export restrictions or bans, as implemented by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and China in 2008 (Helfand 2013) when the situation was much less serious. This hoarding on a country level could also be coupled with hoarding on an individual level. This could dramatically reduce the food supply available to poor people.\nArmed conflict could be in some countries’ best interest, which could also aggravate famine (Keller 1992; Waldman 2001; Goodhand 2003). These wars could even evolve into nuclear conflict, which would further impact food supplies.\"\nIf there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?\nThis question conditions on there being a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, using the same specification as in [a previous question](LINK) (except that here the year 2030 is used instead of 2024[1]). That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. As noted in that previous question, this could be caused either by nuclear conflict or by something else.\nThe question resolves positively if: \n1-- \nThe above condition is met\n2-- \nAt least three credible sources state or estimate that, within 5 years of the end of the year in which the first 10% shortfall by 2030 occurs, more than 400 million fatalities were caused by that shortfall. \nFor example, if the shortfall occurs in 2027, this question is about whether that causes >400m fatalities by the end of 2032.\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate. \nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n--- \n[Will the first nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations cause >4b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the 10% shortfall. For example, if the 10% shortfall is followed by armed conflict, no attempt will be made to second-guess what credible sources say about whether the fatalities caused by that armed conflict should be considered to be ultimately caused by the 10% shortfall.\n[1] The reason for using 2030 rather than 2024 for this question is that the fatalities and discussion of them may occur on a several-year delay from the actual shortfall. It therefore seemed unwise to force this question to resolve by 2024, and hence best to make this part of the long-term rather than calibration tournament. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:43.307Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8610/-of-nuc-weapon-detonations-by-us-on-cities/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). Several questions in this tournament are intended to shed light on the question of how many nuclear detonations would occur on well-populated areas, including [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/), [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/), [What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/), and similar questions. This questions uses a different operationalization for a similar purpose.\nWhat fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by the end of 2049 (2049-12-31) which occur on or over a point that is within the bounds of city that has a population density of at least 1500 people per square kilometer. The question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US after the question opens and before 2050.\nCities are defined as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" % of nuc. weapon detonations by US on cities [(Degrees of Urbanization)](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas).\nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US includes only deliberate, inadvertent, and accidental offensive detonations of US-owned weapons, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized US-owned weapons. (See fine print for definitions.)\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that detonations for testing purposes and peaceful nuclear explosions.) For example, either a strike intended to kill civilians or a strike intended to destroy a military asset that happens to be in a capital city could both count towards this proportion.\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city\".\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:48.471Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8611/china-russia-war-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a China-Russia war by 2035?\nFor the purposes of this question, a China-Russia war is defined as the China and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n--- \n[Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\n--- \n[Will there be a China-India war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:53.652Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8612/new-start-renewed-or-replaced-after-feb-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange conditional on New START being renewed/replaced or [conditional it not being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)\nConditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?\nThis question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there is an agreement after 2026 that both US and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually has very similar terms to New START. \nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nSee also:\n--- \n[Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n--- \n[Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8608/end-of-new-start-leading-to-nuclear-exchange/)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over US/Russia territory.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:00:58.810Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8613/non-state-actor-acquires-a-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group who is not in a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) has possession of a nuclear weapon that was originally developed by a state and is in deployable condition at the time the state acquires it (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This may occur (for example) by sales, theft, or a state inadvertently losing control of a weapon. This will not include cases where a non-state actor independently develops a weapon (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)). \nA non-state actor obtaining [highly-enriched uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#Highly_enriched_uranium_%28HEU%29) or other weapons material is not sufficient to resolve this question positively. Additionally, [dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:03.946Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8614/non-state-actor-develops-a-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could perhaps trigger larger-scale conflicts.\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)\nWill a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group outside a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) develops a nuclear weapon that is in deployable condition (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This will not include cases where a deployable weapon is sold, stolen, or inadvertently lost by a state (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)).\n[Dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:09.366Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many US cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against the US occur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8616/-us-cities-attacked-by-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on where nuclear detonations would be targeted if nuclear war occurs. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/) for a list of such questions. This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.\nHow many US cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against the US occur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total number of US cities within whose boundaries a nuclear weapon is offensively detonated, between the opening of this question and 2030. If a city is harmed by one or more nuclear detonations but none occur on or over a point that is within the city's boundaries, that city will not be counted towards this question's resolution. \nIf there is no offensive detonation against the US by 2030, this question will be resolved ambiguously. That is, this question conditions at least one offensive detonation against the US occurring by 2030.\nEven if a city is struck by multiple nuclear detonations, it will only be counted once for the purposes of this question.\nThe question will be resolved based on the data from reputable sources. \nWe'll define cities as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city.\"\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:19.933Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Indian cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against India occur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8617/-indian-cities-attacked-by-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on where nuclear detonations would be targeted if nuclear war occurs. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/) for a list of such questions. This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.\nHow many Indian cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against India occur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Indian cities within whose boundaries a nuclear weapon is offensively detonated, between the opening of this question and 2030. If a city is harmed by one or more nuclear detonations but none occur on or over a point that is within the city's boundaries, that city will not be counted towards this question's resolution. \nIf there is no offensive detonation against India by 2030, this question will be resolved ambiguously. That is, this question conditions at least one offensive detonation against India occurring by 2030.\nEven if a city is struck by multiple nuclear detonations, it will only be counted once for the purposes of this question.\nThe question will be resolved based on the data from reputable sources. \nWe'll define cities as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city.\"\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:25.073Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8618/tirzepatide-approved-for-weight-loss-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide), called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabetes trials and appears poised to gain FDA approval for that condition. [Experts believe](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tirzepatide-achieved-superior-a1c-and-body-weight-reductions) it is probably more potent than semaglutide for the treatment of both type 2 diabetes and obesity, and Eli Lilly is currently conducting a [phase 3 weight loss trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04184622) in people with obesity and overweight that promises to yield results in April of 2022. Importantly, tirzepatide may provide much-needed competition for [semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide), potentially lowering drug costs.\nWill tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve tirzepatide for the treatment of weight loss by 2025-01-01. This may be a successful development by Eli Lilly, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:30.193Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-18T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8619/bimagrumab-approval-for-weight-loss-by-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January of this year (2021), Novartis published a [phase 2 trial](http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33457) of its interesting drug [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. Bimagrumab inhibits an inhibitor of muscle growth, causing muscles to grow. Over 48 weeks, people treated with bimagrumab lost one-fifth of their fat mass and increased their lean mass by 4%, along with notable improvements in blood glucose control. \n[Versanis Bio](https://www.versanisbio.com/) [secured funding](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210831005293/en/Versanis-Bio-Announces-70-Million-Series-A-Financing-to-Advance-Bimagrumab-for-the-Treatment-of-Obesity) in 2021 to develop bimagrumab for the treatment of obesity.\nWill bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?\nThis question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve bimagrumab for the treatment of weight loss by 2029-01-01. This may include a successful development from Versanis Bio, or any other pharmaceutical company.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:35.333Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >15% weight loss?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8621/date-weight-loss-drug-15-body-weight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many drugs are currently in development for the treatment of obesity or overweightness. Notably in June 2021, the FDA approved a 2.4mg dose of [Semaglutide (Wegovy)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) for weight loss, which showed [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in trials. Several other weight loss drugs are in active development, such as [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) and [tirzepatide](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8618/tirzepatide-approved-for-weight-loss-by-2025/).\nWhen will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes more weight loss than Wegovy (>15%)?\nThis question will resolve on the date when either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a drug for the treatment of obesity or overweightness which demonstrates an average weight loss of >15%. For the purpose of this question, Wegovy will be considered to have an average weight loss of 14.9%; no alternative doses/delivery mechanisms for semagultide will be considered to resolve this question.\nThis question tracks absolute weight loss caused by the drug plus diet and lifestyle advice, not the “treatment difference” figure in which placebo group weight loss is subtracted. This must be demonstrated in a placebo-controlled randomized trial for patients with obesity or overweightness. This result may be demonstrated in either a phase 2 or 3 trial, and the weight lost can reach over 15% at any time in the study, even if some weight is regained by the end of the study.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:40.483Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-11T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8622/date-weight-loss-drug-25-body-weight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many drugs are currently in development for the treatment of obesity or overweightness. Notably in June 2021, the FDA approved a 2.4mg dose of [Semaglutide (Wegovy)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) for weight loss, which showed [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in trials. Several other weight loss drugs are in active development, such as [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) and [tirzepatide](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8618/tirzepatide-approved-for-weight-loss-by-2025/).\nPrior to the development of these drugs, the most effective and demonstrable treatment for obesity was bariatric surgery, which commonly results in [25% reduction in body weight](https://doi.org/10.7326/m17-2786). However, fewer than [1 in 400 people with obesity](https://asmbs.org/resources/estimate-of-bariatric-surgery-numbers) undergo this surgery each year. If a less expensive and invasive treatment were developed, we might see greater numbers seeking treatment.\nWhen will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?\nThis question will resolve on the date when either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a drug for the treatment of obesity or overweightness which demonstrates an average weight loss of >25%. \nThis question tracks absolute weight loss caused by the drug plus diet and lifestyle advice, not the “treatment difference” figure in which placebo group weight loss is subtracted. This must be demonstrated in a placebo-controlled randomized trial for patients with obesity or overweightness. This result may be demonstrated in either a phase 2 or 3 trial, and the weight lost can reach over 25% at any time in the study, even if some weight is regained by the end of the study.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:45.683Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-02-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Russian cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against Russia occur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8623/-russian-cities-attacked-by-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on where nuclear detonations would be targeted if nuclear war occurs. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/) for a list of such questions. This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.\nHow many Russian cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against Russia occur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Russian cities within whose boundaries a nuclear weapon is offensively detonated, between the opening of this question and 2030. If a city is harmed by one or more nuclear detonations but none occur on or over a point that is within the city's boundaries, that city will not be counted towards this question's resolution. \nIf there is no offensive detonation against Russia by 2030, this question will be resolved ambiguously. That is, this question conditions at least one offensive detonation against Russia occurring by 2030.\nEven if a city is struck by multiple nuclear detonations, it will only be counted once for the purposes of this question.\nThe question will be resolved based on the data from reputable sources. \nWe'll define cities as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city.\"\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:50.879Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Israeli cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against Israel occur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8625/-israeli-cities-attacked-by-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on where nuclear detonations would be targeted if nuclear war occurs. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/) for a list of such questions. This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.\nHow many Israeli cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against Israel occur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Israeli cities within whose boundaries a nuclear weapon is offensively detonated, between the opening of this question and 2030. If a city is harmed by one or more nuclear detonations but none occur on or over a point that is within the city's boundaries, that city will not be counted towards this question's resolution. \nIf there is no offensive detonation against Israel by 2030, this question will be resolved ambiguously. That is, this question conditions at least one offensive detonation against Israel occurring by 2030.\nEven if a city is struck by multiple nuclear detonations, it will only be counted once for the purposes of this question.\nThe question will be resolved based on the data from reputable sources. \nWe'll define cities as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city.\"\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:01:56.096Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Pakistani cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against Pakistan occur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8626/-pakistani-cities-attacked-by-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on where nuclear detonations would be targeted if nuclear war occurs. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/) for a list of such questions. This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.\nHow many Pakistani cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against Pakistan occur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Pakistani cities within whose boundaries a nuclear weapon is offensively detonated, between the opening of this question and 2030. If a city is harmed by one or more nuclear detonations but none occur on or over a point that is within the city's boundaries, that city will not be counted towards this question's resolution. \nIf there is no offensive detonation against Pakistan by 2030, this question will be resolved ambiguously. That is, this question conditions at least one offensive detonation against Pakistan occurring by 2030.\nEven if a city is struck by multiple nuclear detonations, it will only be counted once for the purposes of this question.\nThe question will be resolved based on the data from reputable sources. \nWe'll define cities as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city.\"\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:01.330Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many European cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against a country in Europe occurs by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8627/-european-cities-attacked-by-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on where nuclear detonations would be targeted if nuclear war occurs. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/) for a list of such questions. This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.\nHow many European cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against a country in Europe occurs by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total number of European cities (excluding cities in Russia) within whose boundaries a nuclear weapon is offensively detonated, between the opening of this question and 2030. If a city is harmed by one or more nuclear detonations but none occur on or over a point that is within the city's boundaries, that city will not be counted towards this question's resolution. \nIf there is no offensive detonation against a country in Europe (excluding Russia) by 2030, this question will be resolved ambiguously. That is, this question conditions at least one offensive detonation against a country in Europe (excluding Russia) occurring by 2030.\nEven if a city is struck by multiple nuclear detonations, it will only be counted once for the purposes of this question.\nNote that this asks about a countries in Europe, not just those in the EU, so (for example) detonations on UK cities would count. \nThe question will be resolved based on the data from reputable sources. \nWe'll define cities as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city.\"\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:06.484Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many North Korean cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against North Korea occur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8628/north-korean-cities-attacked-by-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on where nuclear detonations would be targeted if nuclear war occurs. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/) for a list of such questions. This matters both for estimating total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for working out how best to reduce that risk.\nHow many North Korean cities will be offensively attacked by nuclear weapons by 2030, if any offensive detonation against North Korea occur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the total number of North Korean cities within whose boundaries a nuclear weapon is offensively detonated, between the opening of this question and 2030. If a city is harmed by one or more nuclear detonations but none occur on or over a point that is within the city's boundaries, that city will not be counted towards this question's resolution. \nIf there is no offensive detonation against North Korea by 2030, this question will be resolved ambiguously. That is, this question conditions at least one offensive detonation against North Korea occurring by 2030.\nEven if a city is struck by multiple nuclear detonations, it will only be counted once for the purposes of this question.\nThe question will be resolved based on the data from reputable sources. \nWe'll define cities as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([Degrees of Urbanization](https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas)).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage)\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city.\"\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:12.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, how many hours will there be between the first and final detonation in the conflict?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8630/duration-of-nuclear-conflict-in-hours/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If there's a large nuclear conflict, how quickly would it play out? Rapid strike and perhaps rapid retaliation? A series of tit-for-tat exchanges playing out over a longer timespan? Something else or in between? \nOne reason this matters is that it affects how much room there is to intervene after a nuclear conflict has already started, in order to reduce the level to which the conflict escalates.\nIf >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, how many hours will there be between the first and final detonation in the conflict?\nThis question conditions on there being more than 100 offensive nuclear detonations on or over a territory in a single conflict before 2030 (i.e., in the period between the opening of this question and December 31, 2029). That is, if that condition isn't met, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves as the number of hours between the first and final detonation in the first nuclear conflict by 2030 in which there are >100 offensive nuclear detonations. If there are multiple separate conflicts by 2030 which each involve >100 offensive nuclear detonations, only the first such conflict will be taken into account for resolving this question. \nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different pairs of states, involve unrelated motivations, etc.).\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:22.648Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).\nWill the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 1000 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n--- \n[What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 5000 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield of 250kt.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:32.942Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8634/american-obesity-percentage-in-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/)\n[Forty-three percent](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity-adult-17-18/obesity-adult.htm) of US adults had obesity in 2017-2018. People with obesity typically do not want to have obesity, as demonstrated by the fact that [two-thirds](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db313.htm) of American adults with obesity attempt to lose weight each year. It stands to reason that there will be a high demand for safe and effective weight loss drugs.\nWegovy has been shown to cause [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% loss of body weight with relatively minor side effects. It is the first highly effective, and apparently safe, weight loss drug to gain regulatory approval in the US (June 2021). Although in 2021 its US wholesale cost is [$1,349 per month](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-29/diabetes-drug-weight-management-formula-big-price), demand has nevertheless outstripped supply. The possibility that Wegovy and other new weight loss drugs will drive down obesity rates must be considered alongside the observation that obesity rates have been increasing in the US since the 1960s, but particularly [since the 1976-1980](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity-adult-17-18/obesity-adult.htm) NHANES survey period. [Some](https://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) [projections](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsa1909301) suggest that US obesity rates will continue to increase.\nWhat percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?\nThis question resolves as the number of US adults with obesity in 2032, according to the US CDC's [National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/index.htm). Obesity is defined in this question as having a [BMI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_mass_index) of 30.0 or greater. This figure will be taken for all US adults age 18 and older, among all genders and races. This will resolve based on the NHANES for the 2031-2032 period; if there is no such publication or a near equivalent, Metaculus Admins may use other estimates by researchers or government health agencies, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:38.081Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-09T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).\nThe total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used.\nWill the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?\nThis question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 50 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \nRelated questions\n--- \n[Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)\n--- \n[How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n--- \n[What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\nOne example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 100 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield per weapon of 500kt.\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:43.252Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8636/war-between-russia-and-nato-countries/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Other questions ask [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/) and [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/). This question focuses on the possibility of a war between Russia and any NATO country other than the US by 2035, without there also being a US-Russia war.\nWill there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if the following two criteria are met:\n1-- \nBy 2035, there is a conflict between Russia and one or more NATO countries other than the US in which those countries collectively suffer [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. \n2-- \nIt is not the case that there is a US-Russia war by 2035 (regardless of whether that's connected to, before, or after the war mentioned in the first criterion). In other words, the question \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" must resolve negatively for this question to resolve positively.\nThis question can resolve positively even if the US is in some way involved in the war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, as long as the US's involvement is insufficient to resolve \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" positively. For example, this question can resolve positively if there's a year before 2035 in which Russia and Germany each suffer 600 battle-related deaths as part of a conflict with each other and, as part of the same conflict, the US suffers \"only\" 100 battle-related deaths and inflicts \"only\" the same amount. \nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2035, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\nSee also\n--- \n[Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n--- \n[If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:48.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8638/non-nuclear-armed-state-and-a-nuc-detonation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\nSee also [Collection of questions on nuclear targeting](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/).\nAt least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?\nCurrently, [there are 9 nuclear-armed states](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/): Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\nIf a state that isn't currently nuclear-armed becomes nuclear-armed before 2030, a fatality in that state while it is nuclear-armed can count towards positive resolution of this question.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, and the US.\n--- \n[India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Israel](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8637/fatality-in-israel-from-a-nuclear-detonation/)\n--- \n[Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:02:58.682Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "What fraction of offensive nuclear detonations will be in the Southern Hemisphere, if more than 50 detonations happen globally by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8639/-of-nuclear-detonations-in-southern-h/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The extent of the harms from nuclear conflict, and especially the likelihood of a negative [trajectory change](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/trajectory-change) that stretches into the long-term future, probably depend mostly on the possible [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects and societal disruption effects. Those effects may be weaker if the vast majority of nuclear detonations occur in just the Northern Hemisphere (rather than there also being many in the Southern Hemisphere), because:\n--- \nThat might reduce the size of nuclear winter effects in Southern Hemisphere, perhaps allowing Southern Hemisphere countries to feed themselves and even produce surpluses that can feed people elsewhere.\n--- \nIf capitals or other cities in the Southern Hemisphere aren't hit, that might substantially reduce the societal and political disruption Southern Hemisphere countries face, perhaps preventing those countries from collapsing or helping them recover more quickly.\nWhat fraction of offensive nuclear detonations will be in the Southern Hemisphere, if more than 50 detonations happen globally by 2050?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive state nuclear detonations that occur between this question opening and 2050-01-01 that are on or over a point in the Southern Hemisphere. The question resolves ambiguously if it is not the case that >50 offensive state nuclear detonations between the question opening and 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive state nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental detonations of weapons that were owned by a state at the time of detonation (see the fine print for definitions). This excludes detonations of weapons that were created by non-state actors or were sold to non-state actors by the state that had owned the weapon.\nBy the Southern Hemisphere, we mean the half of Earth that is south of the Equator. A list of countries which lie in the Southern Hemisphere can be found in the [World Population Review](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/southern-hemisphere-countries).\nResolution will be based on reputable reports – preferably published by international organizations, NGOs focused on nuclear risk, scientific organizations or government agencies of countries that are not part to the conflict (or even countries participating in the conflict, if their reports agree on the facts). If such reports are not available, data will be compiled from credible media reports.\nIf it cannot be determined whether or not an explosion occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (e.g. because it was very close to the equator), such explosion will not count toward the total number of explosions.\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions will not count as offensive nuclear detonations for this purpose of this question. These are are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:03.845Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8640/percentage-of-us-adults-with-diabetes-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that [13%](https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pdfs/data/statistics/national-diabetes-statistics-report.pdf) of US adults had diabetes in 2015-2016 (all types). [Rates of diabetes have been increasing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_diabetes#United_States), correlating with similar increasing rates of obesity and overweight.\nExcess body fat is a key cause of type 2 diabetes, the most prevalent type of diabetes. Weight loss has been shown to both [prevent the development](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa012512) of type 2 diabetes, and put existing type 2 diabetes [into remission](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2817%2933102-1). The FDA recently approved Wegovy for the treatment of obesity, which causes [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% loss of body weight in randomized trials, with relatively minor side effects. Other related weight loss drugs may soon be approved. Demand for these drugs is expected to be high, although they are costly in the US.\nIt is possible that these new weight loss drugs may halt or reverse trends in diabetes rates.\nWhat percentage of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032?\nThis question will resolve as the estimated percentage of US adults with diabetes (all types) in the year 2032, according to the US CDC. CDC estimates of diabetes prevalence are typically delayed by several years, so the estimate for 2032 may not be published until 2033-2037. The [CDC estimate](https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pdfs/data/statistics/national-diabetes-statistics-report.pdf) for 2015-2016 is 13.0%. This figure will account for the total rate of both diagnosed and undiagnosed cases, including all types of diabetes, for US adults age 18 and over for all genders and races. If the CDC does not have this data available, Metaculus Admins may use estimates from other researchers or government agencies, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:08.952Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-09T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2038-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was inadvertent, as defined above. If there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:19.225Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.\nIf there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was accidental or unauthorised, as defined above. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon that was owned by a state actor (though not if officials high in the state's chain of command authorized the non-state actor to do this; that would be considered a deliberate detonation).\nIf there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\nRelated questions\n--- \n[If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be inadvertent?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n--- \n[Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:24.379Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many interstellar objects will be identified by the Vera Rubin Observatory is its first two years of observations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8647/number-of-interstellar-objects-by-vro-in-2yr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of November 2021, two [interstellar objects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) (1I/`Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov) have been discovered while traversing the Solar System. While the galactic population of such objects is relatively unconstrained, the forthcoming [Vera Rubin Observatory](https://www.lsst.org/) will have a larger field-of-view in which to identify interstellar objects. This question is part of a fortified essay on the origin and composition of interstellar objects like `Oumuamua.\nHow many interstellar objects will be identified by the Vera Rubin Observatory in its first two years of observations?\nThis question will resolve to the whole number value of interstellar objects that were first identified by the Vera Rubin Observatory within two years of its [first light](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_light_%28astronomy%29) image. The number of objects discovered by this observatory will be determined by the number of objects with the \"I\" [designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) as interstellar with a discovery asterisk corresponding to the Vera Rubin Observatory, as recorded by the [Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/).\nThis question will close on the date considered to be \"first light\" (i.e. first scientific operations) for the Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile. This first light date will be determined as announced by the Rubin Observatory on their [website](https://www.lsst.org/). Resolution will be 2 years and 3 months after first light, to allow 3 months to classify any ambiguous observations.\nIn the case that Vera Rubin Observatory does not make begin first light or make observations before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nAs of November 17, 2021, the Vera Rubin Observatory is [expected](https://www.lsst.org/about/project-status) to see its first light in January 2023 and scientific operations are set to begin in late 2023. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:34.729Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8648/closest-approach-next-10-interstellar-objects/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of November 2021, two [interstellar objects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) have been identified. With more powerful all-sky telescopes such as the Vera Rubin Observatory set to commence operations within a few years, the prospects for detecting interstellar objects will only increase. The anomalous [`Oumuamua](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/comets/oumuamua/in-depth/) was intrinsically dim and would not have been detected had its closest approach been much farther than its value of 0.16[au](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomical_unit). [Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov), however, had a brightness-boosting \"coma\" (i.e. [tail](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov#/media/File:Comet-2IBorisov-HubbleST-20191016_%28cropped%29.png)) that allowed for it to be easily identified despite only approaching 1.9au from Earth. `Oumuamua's close approach suggests that the population of small objects such as `Oumuamua may be far larger than the population of larger Borisov-like objects. The closest approach distance of the next identified interstellar object can be used as an inverse proxy for the typical intrinsic brightness of these objects, and also for the number of these objects that exist in the galaxy.\nHow close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass?\nThis question will resolve as the median of the closest approach distances (in [astronomical units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomical_unit)) to the Earth of the next 10 Interstellar objects, as determined by the orbital solution published by the [Minor Planet Center](https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/). An object will be considered \"interstellar\" when it is given the \"I\" [label](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) by the [Minor Planet Center](https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/).\nBy \"next 10 Interstellar Objects\", we mean the 10 objects labeled \"[Interstellar](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html)\" by the Minor Planet Center, in the order they were classified, following 'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov. If 10 new ISOs are not discovered by 2032-01-01, this question will resolve as the median of all new ISOs discovered up until then.\nThis question will close retroatively 24 hours before the classification of the first new ISO. If no interstellar objects are discovered by 2032-01-01, then this question will resolve ambiguously. Resolution may be delayed by a month or more to confirm the classification of any ambiguous objects.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:40.014Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-02-02T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8649/alien-origin-of-interstellar-object-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first discovered interstellar object (1I`Oumuamua) displayed a curious combination of properties that have led some to speculate that it may be an artificial object from an intelligent [extraterrestrial](https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Extraterrestrial/9780358274551) civilization. While the majority of the scientific community believes that `Oumuamua originated through [natural](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0816-x) astrophysical processes, the formation mechanism of such objects remains unknown. This question is part of a fortified essay on interstellar objects.\nBy 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least two of the following agencies (or their successors) releases a statement that confirms an extraterrestrial, intelligent origin of an interstellar object in our Solar System.\n---United States Department of Defense (Space Force, Air Force, etc.) \n---NASA \n---European Space Agency (ESA) \n---Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) \n---Roscosmos \n---Chinese National Space Administration \nFor the purposes of this question, an \"interstellar object\" will be defined as an object with the \"I\" [designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) by the [Minor Planet Center ](https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/), or as an object with an origin outside the solar system according to major government space agencies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:45.226Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2063-07-02T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the levelised cost of PV solar energy in 2030, in 2021 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8650/lcoe-of-utility-scale-solar-pv-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n[What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/)\nEnergy is captured from the sun largely in 3 ways: [photovoltaic power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_system) (PV), which captures solar energy directly through the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect), [concentrated solar power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_solar_power), which focuses sunlight on a water source to generate steam, and [solar thermal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy), which captures solar energy directly as a heat source. The [Levelised Cost of Energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_energy) (LCoE) is an estimate of the full cost of building and operating an energy generating plant, relative to the expected amount of energy generated in its lifetime. [Utility-scale solar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility-scale_solar) refers to large PV installations which supply an electrical grid, compared to [rooftop solar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rooftop_photovoltaic_power_station), which is generally more expensive per unit of energy produced.\nThe cost of new solar energy has fallen significantly in the last decade, from 0.381 USD/kWh in 2010 to 0.057 in 2020 ([IRENA](https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020)). Over the same period, solar has grown from 0.15% of global electricity production to 3.27% ([Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Solar&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Share+of+total)).\nWhat will be the levelised cost of PV solar energy in 2030, in 2021 USD per kWh?\nThis question will resolve as the global weighted-average Levelised Cost of Energy for utility-scale photovoltaic power in 2030, according to [IRENA's annual estimates](https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020). This cost will be indexed to 2021 USD using the [CPI for all urban consumers for all items](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL). If IRENA no longer publishes this figure or significantly changes their methodology, Metaculus Admins may select a similar replacement, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:50.444Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-07-10T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8651/date-fossil-fuels-50-of-global-energy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, fossil fuels made [84%](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total) of global primary energy consumption. Primary energy refers not just to electricity, but also energy used in transport, industry, and in buildings (such as heating, appliances, and water heating). That 84% share is a reduction from 91% in 1979, despite a population growth of 76% and a 17.8% per-capita increase in energy consumption.\n[Welsby et. al. 2021](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8) projected that in order to have a 50% chance of [limiting warming to 1.5C by 2100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference), the world must reduce oil and gas consumption by 3% each year until 2050. The US Department of Energy [published a study](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-solar-futures-study-providing-blueprint-zero-carbon-grid) which showed that the US could achieve a carbon-free electrical grid by 2050 by massively investing in solar and wind power.\nWhen will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption?\nThis question will resolve on the estimated date when energy from fossil fuels makes up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption, according to the [BP statistical review of energy](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total). If BP no longer publishes this data or significantly changes their methodology, Metaculus Admins may use a similar source for resolution, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n\"Fossil fuels\" here means coal, oil, and natural gas. Primary energy will be calculated by [the substitution method](https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix#direct-vs-substituted-primary-energy-what-are-the-multiple-ways-of-energy-accounting), which takes account of excess energy lost in fossil fuel energy plants. The date of resolution will be estimated by linearly extrapolating the data (for example, if the data shows 51% fossil fuel energy on 2050-01-01 and 49.5% on 2051-01-01, the resolution date will be 2050-09-01). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:03:56.434Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2038-10-08T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8656/end-of-mask-mandate-in-sf-county/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The City and County of San Francisco currently [requires citizens to wear a mask in most public places](https://sf.gov/information/masks-and-face-coverings-added-protection-coronavirus). This includes stores, restaurants, indoor events and hospitals but, as of Oct 15 2021, [excludes places where stable groups of fully vaccinated people gather](https://sfmayor.org/article/san-francisco-ease-indoor-mask-requirements-certain-indoor-settings-where-stable-groups) (e.g. offices, gyms, religious gatherings, lectures).\nWhen will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?\nThis question resolves on the date when the mask mandate is lifted such that citizens in SF county are not legally required to wear a mask in public places. In the case where citizens are still legally required to wear a mask in some settings (e.g. they are still required in hospitals), it resolves on the first date when citizens in SF county are not legally required to wear a mask in all of: the CVS store at 601 Mission St; the Chipotle at 525 Market St; and a private, indoor event with 50 people present.\nThe question will close retrospectively the midnight before an announcement is made or Dec 31, 2023, whichever is earlier.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:01.724Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8659/maximum-annual-cpi-inflation-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Inflation has been in the news recently as the annual rate of inflation reached 6.2% in October, 2021, the [highest annual rate in 30 years](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html). The Federal Reserve expects the annual inflation rate to [decline in 2022](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20210922.htm) (based on their projection which uses a different measure, [PCE inflation](https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-trends/2014-economic-trends/et-20140417-pce-and-cpi-inflation-whats-the-difference.aspx)). Senator Rand Paul thinks inflation will continue to increase, saying in an [interview with the Foundation for Economic Education](https://fee.org/articles/interview-rand-paul-explains-what-s-really-causing-america-s-inflation-woes/)\nI think you may see inflation of 10% or 12% next year\nWhat will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?\nThis resolves as the maximum seasonally adjusted annual CPI inflation reported in 2022. [This FRED graph](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IYHh) will be consulted once data is available for each month in 2022, and the maximum CPI inflation value for any month in 2022 will be used for resolution. \n---Also see [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8901/us-inflation-in-2022/) on annual inflation in 2022. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:12.023Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T21:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T22:45:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8661/rivian-market-cap-on-4202022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Rivian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rivian) is an American electric vehicle automaker and automotive technology company founded in 2009. \nRivian went public in November 2021 to great investor enthusiasm: it was [valued at $86 billion after its market debut,](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/amazon-backed-ev-start-up-rivian-set-to-go-public-.html) attaining a higher market capitalization than Ford. A week after its IPO, its value had soared to more than $145 billion, and [it became the third-most valuable automaker in the world,](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/16/cars/rivian-value-tesla-toyota-vw/index.html) behind only Tesla and Toyota, and ahead of established giants like Volkswagen - despite not reporting material revenue in its corporate history. \nThe level of enthusiasm for Rivian stock, and that of EV automakers in general, after Tesla became a trillion-dollar company, has led to some questions about the rationality of its valuation.\nWhat will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?\nThis question resolves as the market capitalization of Rivian as of the close of trading on April 20th 2022, in billions of US dollars. If the company no longer exists at this time, or if it is no longer a publicly-traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:17.234Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8662/chinas-nuclear-arsenal-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads [though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the \"low-200s\"](https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF) (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia [continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat). \nThe 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and \" likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030\" (page 90). \nThis Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance [China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/).\nIf these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. [As the Financial Times reports,](https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688?shareType=nongift) \"Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?\"\nUnderstanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia.\nWill China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?\nThis resolves positively if China is reported to have achieved 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 according to the FAS ([https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status…](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)).\nThis resolves negatively if no such reports happen by 2030. \nThis resolves ambiguously if the political entity of 'China' dissolves or otherwise changes significantly.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:22.385Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-to-make-patient-philanthropy-harder-soon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).\nWill a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States by the end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2022 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:\n---Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive. \n---Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive. \nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. It is a shorter term companion to [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8664/patient-philanthropy-harder-in-the-us-by-30/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:27.547Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-28T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8669/restrictions-on-us-pres-war-powers-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant to limit presidential war powers. The WPR originally [stipulated the following](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution):\nThe War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.\nSince its passing, the WPR has largely failed to reign in the executive branch's ability to unilaterally take military action. A particular flaw in the resolution is its use of the word \"hostilities\" to describe conflict. The [introductory text to the resolution](https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp) is as follows:\nIt is the purpose of this joint resolution to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations.\nUnfortunately, \"hostilities\" fails to precisely describe warfare. This terminology has been exploited by various presidencies, culminating in [testimony by the Obama administration](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/167452.pdf) explicitly stating its futility to constrain the executive branch's authority. Consequently, this loophole handicaps the WPR's ability to function as originally intended. Policymakers have [considered replacing the current term](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3436924) with \"armed conflict\", which would align with the Geneva Convention's terminology and the international legal obligations requiring congressional oversight that would come with such a conflict.\nWill the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 the current War Powers Resolution is replaced, amended or struck down, via legal challenge, legislation, or executive authority, to further restrict the President’s ability to deploy military force.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:37.814Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-28T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. President remain the sole authority to authorize the use of Nuclear weapons by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8670/us-pres-exclusive-authority-on-nukes-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a [Nuclear Risk tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/). Most of these questions focus on stockpiles, detonation and other outcomes. To answer these questions with fidelity, predictors must make assumptions concerning the processes and conditions in which a nuclear weapon would be launched.\nAn excerpt from a [Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf) outlines the command and control of nuclear forces in the United States:\nThe U.S. President has sole authority to authorize the use of U.S. nuclear weapons. This authority is inherent in his constitutional role as Commander in Chief. The President can seek counsel from his military advisors; those advisors are then required to transmit and implement the orders authorizing nuclear use. But, as General John Hyten, then the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), noted, his job is to give advice, while the authority to order a launch lies with the President.\nWill the U.S. President remain the sole authority to authorize the use of Nuclear weapons by 2030?\nThis question will resolve negatively if by 2030-01-01, a single or set of American laws, amendments, or other legal mechanisms adds additional required authorizing parties to the final decision to use nuclear force and/or if the president is no longer an authority in the process. This question will resolve positively if the acting U.S. president remains the sole authority from 2021-11-01 to 2030-01-01.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:43.002Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-28T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8674/date-that-peak-space-debris-is-reached/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use. \nTo avoid this outcome [mitigation measures](https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Mitigating_space_debris_generation) are being put in place, including guidelines for operators to remove their spacecraft after the end of their operational lives and actively removing debris by capturing them with dedicated spacecraft, or by Earth-based methods such as using laser beams to slowly push them out of orbit.\nIt can be imagined then that if these efforts are successful, a balance point will be reached sometime in the future, where enough spacecraft are removed from orbit after end-of-mission and enough pieces of existing debris are actively removed so that a Kessler syndrome is avoided.\nIf Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?\nThis question will resolve on the date at which the maximum number of space debris pieces larger than 10cm is reached between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2050, according to the [ESA's Space Debris Office](https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers). If the ESA no longer reports this data, a similar authority for monitoring orbital space debris will be used, or the question may resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.\nFor the purposes of this question, a Kessler syndrome is assumed to have been triggered if it is so declared by a credible source such as the ESA Space Debris Office or NASA.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:04:58.698Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8675/space-debris-causes-fatality-before-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\nDespite mitigation measures being put in place, space debris will remain a significant risk to spacecraft at least for the near future. In addition to astronauts on the ISS and other planned space stations, a rise in private human spaceflight and space tourism is expected, potentially putting more humans in space than ever. A scenario is possible, as depicted e.g. in the film [Gravity](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1454468/), where humans are put in danger by space debris. In November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite missile test created 1,500 pieces of debris, sending the [7 astronauts aboard the ISS](https://apnews.com/article/space-exploration-science-business-697f5aa719331ab6e74102ebb06b52d8) to their capsules for safety.\nWill space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?\nThe question resolves as positive if, between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, a fatality in space is attributed to space debris, according to major national space agencies or credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:03.850Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8676/date-of-first-space-debris-removal-mission/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\nTo avoid this outcome, mitigation measures are being put in place such as the active capture and removal or space debris. The [first such mission](https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Clean_Space/ESA_commissions_world_s_first_space_debris_removal) is an ESA-private collaboration and is planned to be launched in 2025 and target a Vega launcher upper stage for removal. [More ambitious mission concepts](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271224478_Mission_Concept_for_Multi_Space_Debris_Removal) aim to remove multiple pieces of debris, by repeatedly capturing pieces of debris and removing them from orbit. \nWhen will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?\nThis question will resolve on the date that a single mission has captured 2 pieces of space debris and placed them into a removal orbit. Any future activities of this mission are irrelevant for the resolution of this question.\nRemoval orbits can be any orbits according to space debris removal guidelines or regulations at the time of the mission, e.g. in an orbit that will cause re-entry within 25 years or on a designated graveyard orbit. \nThe mission can occur anywhere in Low-Earth Earth orbit, meaning within 2,000 km from earth's sea level.\nIt is not necessary for the mission to explicitly capture and remove all pieces of debris by itself. It is also valid if the mission causes the piece of debris to go into a removal orbit, e.g. by attaching a removal kit to it. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:09.023Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8677/smr-nuclear-1-of-any-nations-energy-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Small modular reactors](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs) (SMRs) are a type of nuclear power reactor which are smaller than conventional nuclear power plants (in size and in power output), and modular (meaning they can be manufactured off-site and shipped as a unit to be set-up faster and at lower cost). Russia has built a [floating SMR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov) in a harbor in the arctic circle, and [China has begun developing](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Installation-of-containment-starts-at-Chinese-SMR) a land-based reactor with plans to begin operation by 2027. A division at [Rolls-Royce](https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press/funding-secured-to-enable-small-modular-reactor-delivery-to-meet-net-zero) has set a target to bring SMRs online in the UK \"in the early 2030s\".\nWill small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, small modular reactor nuclear power supplies at least 1% of any nation's annual elecricity consumption. Resolution may come from credible media reports, government agencies, or energy industry researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:14.251Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2030, what proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8679/2030-uk-energy-ratio-of-importsbatteries/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson aims to reduce the UK's [greenhouse gas emissions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions) to [zero by 2050](https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/all-britains-electricity-to-be-green-by-2035). In 2021, [he pledged](https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/all-britains-electricity-to-be-green-by-2035) that all of the UK's electricity will be from renewable or nuclear sources by 2035.\nOne of the major hurdles to implementing 100% renewable electric grids is inconsistency: solar and wind generators have variable output depending on the weather, and consumers have fluctuating electricity demands over the course of the day. This could be addressed with battery storage: prices for lithium-ion batteries have [fallen by 97% from 1991 to 2021](https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323), and hydrogen storage could be a [cost effective solution](https://news.mit.edu/2021/making-case-hydrogen-zero-carbon-economy-0831) for storage on a several-month timescale. Intermittent demand and supply can also be addressed by expanding the total size of the electric grid. The UK has [five direct electrical connections](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-55750411) with other nations and is planning on building 10 more by 2023.\nIn 2030, what proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of electricity demand on the island of Great Britain supplied by overseas interconnectors, compared to that supplied by battery storage, for the calendar year 2030. For example, if 500 TWh of demand were supplied by interconnectors and 250 TWh by batteries, this question would resolve as 0.66. Energy imported by interconnectors will be the total amount imported, not net imports (imports minus exports). Resolution may come from official government sources such as [DUKES](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes) or from independent energy researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:19.414Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-07-10T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much new solar PV capacity will be installed globally in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8680/new-global-solar-pv-capacity-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The cost of new [Photovoltaic power panels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_system) has fallen dramatically in the last decade. [Utility-scale solar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility-scale_solar) is [7 times cheaper](https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020) (per generated kWh) in 2020 compared to 2010. The world's total solar capacity been growing at an exponential rate of [20-30% each year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capacity?country=~OWID_WRL), and added 126 gigawatts of capacity in 2020 alone.\nUS President Joe Biden has [set a target](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/exclusive-white-house-pushing-80-clean-us-power-grid-by-2030-2021-04-26/) to reach 80% of US electricity from carbon-free sources by 2030, and 100% by 2035. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [pledged for the same goal](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/all-britains-power-be-green-by-2035-pm-johnson-says-2021-10-04/) by 2035.\nHow much new solar PV capacity will be installed globally in 2030?\nThis question will resolve as the global new solar capacity installed in 2030, in gigawatts. For example, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/installed-solar-pv-capacity?country=~OWID_WRL), 126.7 GW of capacity was installed in 2020. Resolution may come from the [BP Statistical Review of Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html), official government estimates, or other independent energy researchers such as [IRENA](https://www.irena.org/)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:24.546Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-07-10T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8682/largest-population-decline-in-next-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemics which have had near-global reach (such as the Black Death) and wars of conquest which have spread across much of the world (such as the wars of Genghis Khan and his successors).\nIn our time, we might face the prospect of a mild global population decline due to falling birth rates, but this by itself would not produce a sharp decline in a single year. Any such decline would likely have to come from a catastrophic event similar to the ones listed above. With that in mind, we ask the following question:\nWhat will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?\nThis question will resolve as the largest single-year percentage decline in world population as reported by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL) between the years 2021 to 2120, inclusive. Specifically, if denotes the population for year in the given chart, the resolution value will be\nIf the World Bank doesn't report all of the necessary population figures for this maximum to be computed, the question will resolve according to another credible source as determined by Metaculus administrators.\nIn the case that there is no population decline in any year (that is, population grows every year), this question will resolve as <0.\nThis question resolves based on human populations, so any potential AIs would not be counted as part of the world population for the purposes of this question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:29.711Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will world population decline after World War 3, if such a war happens by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8683/population-decline-following-ww3/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemics which have had near-global reach (such as the Black Death) and wars of conquest which have spread across much of the world (such as the wars of Genghis Khan and his successors).\nOne of the plausible ways in which a sharp decline in world population might occur is as a consequence of a world war. With this in mind, we ask the following question:\nHow much will world population decline after World War 3, if such a war happens by 2050?\n\"World War 3\" will be defined based on [this Metaculus Question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/):\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\nIf such a war occurs before 2050, then in the year it begins, , this question will resolve as\nwhere denotes the population for year obtained from [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL). In other words, the question will resolve as the percentage decline of global population from the year before the outbreak of WW3 to either the year 2060 or the year in which the decline bottoms out, whichever comes first. If there is no decline at all, the expression above would be equal to zero, so in this case the question would resolve as 0.\nIf World War 3 (as defined above) does not occur by 2050-01-01, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf the World Bank doesn't report all of the necessary population figures for this maximum to be computed, the question will resolve according to another credible source as determined by Metaculus administrators.\nThis question resolves based on human populations, so any potential AIs would not be counted as part of the world population for the purposes of this question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:35.882Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In the 2022 EA Giving Tuesday, what will be the amount of matched funds sent by Facebook as a percentage of the amount donated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8685/-of-matched-2022-ea-giving-tuesday-funds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 2016, yearly on [Giving Tuesday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GivingTuesday), Facebook has offered a donation match for fundraisers hosted on Facebook, with a matching pool of millions of dollars.\nTypically, this matching pool is depleted seconds after the match begins; in 2020, the $2 million 100% match was depleted in 2 seconds, though the 10% matching funds lasted for more than 3 hours.\nThe [EA Giving Tuesday Donation Matching Initiative](https://www.eagivingtuesday.org/) is an initiative by Rethink Charity to coordinate effective altruists to have their donations to EA nonprofits matched, by creating fundraisers ahead of time, providing advice on how to submit donations quickly, and coordinating regranting between organisations to allow donations to non-US nonprofits.\nIn 2017, [13%](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KmBbJJxrj3Mkum36K/ea-giving-tuesday-donation-matching-initiative-2020) of donations made as part of this initiative were matched; in 2018, [65%](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ns3h8rCtsTMgFZ9eH/ea-giving-tuesday-donation-matching-initiative-2018-1); and in 2019, [52%](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EYtad3vgsJDMjKKju/ea-giving-tuesday-donation-matching-initiative-2019). In 2020, due to the smaller 100% match and introduction of the 10% matching funds, the matched amount was [25% of the donated amount](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KmBbJJxrj3Mkum36K/ea-giving-tuesday-donation-matching-initiative-2020#Matched_amounts).\nIn the 2022 EA Giving Tuesday, what will be the amount of matched funds sent by Facebook as a percentage of the amount donated?\nThis will resolve as the amount of matched funds as a percentage of the amount of donated funds, as published on the [EA Giving Tuesday Donation Matching Initiative's official website](https://www.eagivingtuesday.org/donations) when figures for the 2022 match are available.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:41.085Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-29T11:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8688/highest-pandemic-death-toll-2022-2121/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemics which have had near-global reach (such as the Black Death) and wars of conquest which have spread across much of the world (such as the wars of Genghis Khan and his successors).\nIn our time, we might face the prospect of a mild global population decline due to falling birth rates, but this by itself would not produce a sharp decline in a single year. Any such decline would likely have to come from a catastrophic event similar to the ones listed above. With that in mind, we ask the following question:\nWhat will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?\nThis question will resolve as\nwhere the maximum is taken over all pandemics and all years in the given range. In other words, the resolution value will be equal to the highest number of annual deaths attributable to a given pandemic. If there are two pandemics ongoing in a particular year, only the one with the highest estimated death toll for that given year will be taken into consideration. This question will measure deaths in a calendar year (January 1 to December 31), not maximum deaths in any 365-day period.\nResolution will be based on credible sources such as the WHO, the CDC, et cetera. If these agencies give a range for possible number of deaths from the pandemic instead of a point estimate, for the purposes of this question the death toll attributable to that pandemic will be taken to be the minimum of their range. As an example, for COVID-19 this minimum would be the total number of deaths reported by governments, around 3.3 million as of November 2021.\nThis question will resolve according to the number of deaths where the infectious disease is the primary cause of death, not secondary factors such as famines, wars, infrastructure failures, et cetera.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:46.234Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8692/black-virginian-vaccine-rate-ratio-reaches-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia [has prioritized](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/diversity/equity-leadership-taskforce/) [health equity](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/health-equity/office-of-health-equity/covid-19-health-equity-guidebook/) in its response, including its vaccination efforts. \nThe Virginia Department of Health [reports](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/health-equity-dashboard/) COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. \nIn October 2021, the rate ratio in vaccinations for Black Virginians relative to White Virginians rate was 0.9, meaning the vaccination rate for the Black group rate was 0.9 times that of the White group. A rate ratio of 1 means that Black Virginians and White Virginians have equal rates of vaccination.\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 6:\n---November 2021: 1 (0.5-1.5) \n---December 2021: 2 (1.5-2.5) \n---January 2022: 3 (2.5-3.5) \n---February 2022: 4 (3.5-4.5) \n---March 2022: 5 (4.5-5.5) \n---April 2022: 6 (5.5-6.5) \nWhen will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?\nThis will resolve as the month when the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reaches or exceeds 1.0 according to the VDH [Health Equity dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/health-equity-dashboard/), which is updated on the second Monday of each month.\nIf the 1.0 threshold is not reached by April 2022, it resolves as > 6.5 (after April 2022).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:51.452Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-09T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8695/avg-travel-nurse-salary-in-va-as-of-31-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many U.S. hospitals are [currently](https://apnews.com/article/business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-b6d58e41b209dd67ed0954f28b542baf) [facing](https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/22763417/us-covid-19-hospitals-nurses-shortage) nurse staffing shortages. This is [also the case](https://richmond.com/news/local/covid-hospitalizations-are-down-36-in-virginia-but-hospitals-still-feel-taxed-due-to-staffing/article_cd160417-2214-52c1-a31a-f19eba13d611.html) in Virginia. As a result, many hospitals are relying on [travel nurses](https://nurse.org/articles/how-to-make-the-most-money-as-a-travel-nurse/) to help address these shortages.\nVivian, a healthcare jobs marketplace, is reporting as of 21 November that the [average travel nurse salary in Virginia](https://www.vivian.com/nursing-jobs/virginia/salary/#Travel) is $2,809 per week. At the time the estimate was made it was based on 21,068 active jobs in the last 90 days.\nWhat will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?\nThis will resolve as the [“Average Travel Nurse Salary” for Virginia](https://www.vivian.com/nursing-jobs/virginia/salary/#Travel) on 31 March 2022, according to Vivian. This reflects the average per-week salary over the previous 90 day period.\nIf the weekly average travel nurse salary exceeds $6,000 then this resolves as > 6k.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:05:56.688Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8699/-weeks-of-widespread-flu-activity-in-va/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2020-2021 flu season in the United States was the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: at no point during the 2020-2021 flu season did Virginia experience [\"Widespread\"](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/) flu activity.\nThere is now [substantial](https://www.hcplive.com/view/flu-season-high-levels-uncertainty-concern) [uncertainty](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600%2821%2900364-7/fulltext) as to what the nature (timing and magnitude) of the 2021-2022 flu season will be. This uncertainty [also extends to Virginia](https://www.progress-index.com/story/news/2021/10/05/vdh-official-hesitant-forecast-how-badly-flu-bug-bite-us-covid-masks-distance-protocols/6010406001/). \nVDH defines influenza as being [“Widespread”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2019/07/2018-19-Seasonal-Report_7-8-19_Final.pdf) when there is lab activity with either elevated ILI or more than one outbreak in three or more regions. There are [five health regions](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2020/08/VA-regions_districts_localities.pdf) in Virginia: Central, Eastern, Southwest, Northern, Northwest. \nThe weekly activity level is [\"based on ILI data, laboratory findings, and outbreak occurrences\"](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2016/02/Influenza2012.pdf). “Widespread” is the most severe of its 5 activity level classifications:\n---No Activity: No ILI, outbreak, or lab activity above threshold \n---Sporadic: One confirmed outbreak or lab activity without elevated ILI \n---Local: Lab activity with either elevated ILI or more than one outbreak in one region \n---Regional: Lab activity with either elevated ILI or more than one outbreak in two regions \n---Widespread: Lab activity with either elevated ILI or more than one outbreak in three or more regions \nAs of 18 November, Virginia has spent [0 weeks at “Widespread”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/) during the 2021-2022 flu season thus far.\nHow many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the number of weeks Virginia spends at “Widespread” during the 2021-2022 flu season in Virginia as reported by the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). There are a total of 52 epidemiological weeks, with the reporting period for each influenza season [begins during week 40 and ends week 39 of the following year](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm). For 2021-2022, week 40 corresponds to the week ending 9 October 2021 and week 39 corresponds to the week ending 1 October 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:06:02.092Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 191,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-06T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many charter cities will exist by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8705/charter-cities-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [charter city](https://www.chartercitiesinstitute.org/category/reference-guides) is a new city with new rules. More specifically, the Charter Cities Institute defines a charter city as a new city developed on a greenfield site with significantly devolved administrative and regulatory authority. Charter cities are intended to help countries in the Global South overcome the political and technical obstacles to improving governance, fostering growth, and policy experimentation. Historical examples of “proto-charter cities” often discussed include Shenzhen, Dubai, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Honduras adopted charter cities legislation ([Zones for Employment and Economic Development](http://ojs.instituteforcompgov.org/index.php/jsj/issue/view/4), or ZEDEs) in 2012 and three such developments currently exist (Próspera, Ciudad Morazán, and ZEDE Orquídea). Other new cities throughout Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia meet all or some of the criteria to be considered charter cities. \nIn October 2021, the Adrianople Group, a special economic zone consultancy, launched the [Open Zone Map](https://www.openzonemap.com/map). This project attempts to map every charter city, special economic zone, free trade zone, or other type of special zone in the world. Although definitions of charter cities vary (for instance, see the [Charter Cities Institute](https://www.chartercitiesinstitute.org/faq) vs. [Pronomos Capital](https://www.pronomos.vc/post/what-is-a-charter-city)), the Open Zone Map defines a charter city as “A large zone with deep incentives, both a commercial and residential district, and its own school.” As of October 2021, there are 29 charter cities listed on the Open Zone Map.\nHow many charter cities will exist by 2026?\nThis question will resolve to the number of charter cities identified on the [Open Zone Map](https://www.openzonemap.com/map) on January 1, 2026. If the Open Zone Map is no longer available, or is no longer actively updated as determined by Metaculus moderators, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:06:23.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8708/-virginia-pop-with-booster-dose-4-may-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 19 November, the FDA [authorized](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-covid-19-vaccine-boosters) and the CDC [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1119-booster-shots.html) that all adults in the U.S. who have already completed primary vaccination with a FDA-authorized SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (2 doses of Pfizer, 2 doses of Moderna, or 1 dose of Janssen) can and should receive a booster dose. VDH subsequently [urged](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/statement-from-virginia-state-vaccination-liaison-dr-danny-avula-on-cdc-recommendation-of-booster-doses-for-all-adults-18/) all fully vaccinated adults in Virginia to get a booster dose.\nAs of 21 November, [1,076,029](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) Virginians have received a booster dose — which translates to 12.6% of Virginia’s population of 8,535,519 (2019 figure used by VDH).\nWhat percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the percentage of Virginia’s population that will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022 according to VDH’s [COVID-19 Vaccine Summary dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/). The number under “People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose” will be divided by the 2019 total population figure of 8,535,519 and then multiplied by 100 to get the percentage figure for resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:06:28.500Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-05T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8709/date-when-50-of-virginia-pop-is-boosted/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 19 November, the FDA [authorized](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-covid-19-vaccine-boosters) and the CDC [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1119-booster-shots.html) that all adults in the U.S. who have already completed primary vaccination with a FDA-authorized SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (2 doses of Pfizer, 2 doses of Moderna, or 1 dose of Janssen) can and should receive a booster dose. VDH subsequently [urged](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/statement-from-virginia-state-vaccination-liaison-dr-danny-avula-on-cdc-recommendation-of-booster-doses-for-all-adults-18/) all fully vaccinated adults in Virginia to get a booster dose.\nAs of 21 November, [1,076,029](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) Virginians have received a booster dose — which translates to 12.6% of Virginia’s population of 8,535,519 (2019 figure used by VDH).\nWhen will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?\nThis question resolves on the basis of when the percentage of Virginia’s population that has received a booster dose exceeds 50% according to VDH’s [COVID-19 Vaccine Summary dashboard ](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/). The number under “People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose” will be divided by the 2019 total population figure of 8,535,519 and then multiplied by 100 to get the 50% percentage figure that will be the threshold for positive resolution.\nIf this does not occur before 4 May 2022, it resolves as > 4 May 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:06:33.676Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-05T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8710/-ed-overdose-visits-in-q1-2022-in-virginia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 17 November, the U.S. CDC [published](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm) provisional estimates indicating a [record number](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/581959-deaths-by-drug-overdose-spike-to-record-high-in) of overdose deaths in the U.S. Approximately 100k overdose deaths occurred between April 2020 and April 2021, which is a 28% increase from the estimated 78k overdose deaths that occurred from April 2019 to April 2020. Virginia saw a steeper increase of about 35.5%, from an estimated 1,669 deaths to about 2,262 deaths.\nRapid medical responses to overdoses can [prevent death](https://www.hhs.gov/opioids/treatment/overdose-response/index.html). There were a total of [18,350](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/syndromic-surveillance/drug-overdose-surveillance/) overdose emergency department (ED) visits in Virginia in 2020. So far in 2021 there have been: 4,662 ED overdose visits in Q1, 5,696 ED overdose visits in Q2, and 5,849 in Q3.\nHow many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the total number of ED overdose visits in Virginia in Q1 2022 (1 January - 31 March). To access this data, see the “VDH Health District All Drug” tab on the Excel spreadsheet link “2015-2021 Statistics (.xlsx file)” that can be accessed [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/syndromic-surveillance/drug-overdose-surveillance/). The totals for January, February, and March will be added to get a total for Q1.\nIf the number is greater than 10,000, then this resolves as >10k.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:06:38.789Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-12T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8713/date-of-va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-may/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next peak in the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia over the next few months.\nWhen will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?\nThis question will resolve as the date of the peak weekly total of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH [“Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard.](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) . \nThe week ending 4 December 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 April 2022 is the last week covered. This question will specifically resolve as the last day of the week in question (e.g. if the weekly peak is for the week ending 30 April, then this will resolve as 30 April 2022).\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9581/va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-may-2022/) related question on what this peak will be.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:06:49.925Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8715/date-of-va-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-may/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key uncertainty is when the next peak in the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations will occur in Virginia over the next few months (which includes winter) — particularly given that Virginia experienced an all-time peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations last winter, with the weekly total of cases reaching [976](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) for the week ending 9 January 2021.\nWhen will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?\nThis question will resolve as the date of the peak weekly total of confirmed+probable COVID-19 hospitalizations on the VDH [“Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard.](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) . \nThe week ending 4 December 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 April 2022 is the last week covered. This question will specifically resolve as the last day of the week in question (e.g. if the weekly peak is for the week ending 30 April, then this will resolve as 30 April 2022).\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9579/va-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-may/) related question on what this peak will be.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:06:55.112Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8716/va-communities-w-moderate-transmission/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "VDH classifies community transmission of COVID-19 into [four levels](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/08/Interim-VDH-Community-Mitigation-Framework_August2021.pdf):\n---Low: 7-day avg of cases per 100k is 0-9; 7-day avg % positivity is <5% \n---Moderate: 7-day avg of cases per 100k is 10-49; 7-day avg % positivity is 5.0%-7.9% \n---Substantial: 7-day avg of cases per 100k is 50-99; 7-day avg % positivity is 8.0%-9.9% \n---High: 7-day avg of cases per 100k is >=100; 7-day avg % positivity is >=10% \nIf the two indicators suggest different levels, the actions corresponding to the higher threshold should be chosen.\nAs of 15 November, [131 of Virginia’s 133 communities](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/community-transmission/) experienced moderate or higher levels of community transmission for the week ending 13 November.\nHow many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?\nThis will resolve as the number of communities experiencing moderate, substantial, or high levels of community transmission according to the VDH [“Level of Community Transmission” dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/community-transmission/) as of the 7 March 2022 update for the week ending 5 March 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:00.341Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-07T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8717/date--va-covid-cases-drop-to-new-low/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key uncertainty is when sufficient population immunity against SARS-CoV-2 will be attained in Virginia so that the number of new COVID-19 cases falls to a new low. \nIn Virginia, the weekly total of new cases has not been below 1015 since the week ending [14 March 2020](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/).\nWhen will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?\nThis will resolve as the date when the weekly total of new confirmed+probable cases reaches a level below 1015.0 according to the VDH [“Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \nThis question can close early if the 1015.0 threshold is apparently reached according to the VDH dashboard, but will not resolve until at least two weeks after the fact since it takes ~2 weeks for the cases data to no longer be volatile.\nIf this does not occur before 4 May 2022, this will resolve as > 4 May 2022.\n27 January clarification: The last day of the week in question (Saturday) will be the date of resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:05.576Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8718/date--covid-hospitalizations-drop-to-new-low/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key uncertainty is when sufficient population immunity against SARS-CoV-2 will be attained in Virginia so that the number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations falls to a new low. \nIn Virginia, the weekly total of new hospitalizations has not been below 49 since the weekl ending [14 March 2020](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/).\nWhen will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?\nThis will resolve as the date when the weekly total of new confirmed+probable hospitalizations reaches a level below 49.0 according to the VDH [“Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/). \nThis question can close early if the 49 threshold is apparently reached according to the VDH dashboard, but will not resolve until at least two weeks after the fact since it takes ~2 weeks for the hospitalizations data to no longer be volatile.\nIf this does not occur before 4 May 2022, this will resolve as > 4 May 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:10.762Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8719/date-va-nonfarm-employees-exceeds-4-million/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Virginian total nonfarm employment peaked at [4,091.0k](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VANA) (~4.1 million) in February 2020, before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt. It then reached a pandemic low of [3,611.0k](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VANA) in April 2020 and has steadily recovered since then, reaching [3,957.7](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VANA) in October 2021.\nWhen will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?\nThis will resolve as the month when the total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceeds 4 million according to FRED's [All Employees: Total Nonfarm in Virginia](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VANA). It will resolve as the 15th of the month in question.\nIf this does not resolve before 1 May 2022 (months between December 2021 and April 2022, inclusive), it resolves as >1 May 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:16.014Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8720/va-employed-in-leisurehospitality-april/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Virginian employment in leisure/hospitality peaked at [421.6k](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VALEIH) in February 2020, before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt. It then reached a pandemic low of [216.8k](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VALEIH) in April 2020 and has steadily recovered since then, reaching [357.8k](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VALEIH) in October 2021.\nHow many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the thousands of persons employed in leisure and hospitality in Virginia in April 2022 according to FRED's [All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality in Virginia](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VALEIH).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:21.179Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-15T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8721/va-unemployment-rate-in-april-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Virginia’s unemployment was [2.5%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAUR) in February 2020, before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt. It then reached a pandemic high of [11.3%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAUR) in April 2020 and has steadily recovered since then, reaching [3.6%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAUR) in October 2021.\nWhat will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the unemployment rate in Virginia in April 2022 according to FRED's [Unemployment Rate in Virginia](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAUR).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:26.299Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-15T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8722/date-cdc-lifts-covid-quarantine-restrictions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [following](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/quarantine-isolation.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fif-you-are-sick%2Fquarantine.html) are guidelines on COVID-19 quarantine according to the U.S. CDC, as of the latest page update on 19 October:\nQuarantine if you have been in close contact (within 6 feet of someone for a cumulative total of 15 minutes or more over a 24-hour period) with someone who has COVID-19, unless you have been fully vaccinated. People who are fully vaccinated do NOT need to quarantine after contact with someone who had COVID-19 unless they have symptoms. However, fully vaccinated people should get tested 5-7 days after their exposure, even if they don’t have symptoms and wear a mask indoors in public for 14 days following exposure or until their test result is negative.\nWhen will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?\nThis will resolve as the date when CDC updates its [“Quarantine and Isolation” page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/quarantine-isolation.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fif-you-are-sick%2Fquarantine.html) to reflect that it is eliminating the quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases. \nWhile the relevant guidance for resolution to occur should lift the quarantine restriction for all close contacts, it need not lift its recommendation for testing or mask-wearing for positive resolution.\nIf this does not occur before 1 May 2022, it resolves as > 1 May 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:31.419Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern be declared by the WHO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8723/date-of-next-who-pheic-declaration/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Under the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099%2820%2930401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html). \nSince 2009, WHO has made [six](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern) PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the [30 January 2020](https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-%282019-ncov%29) PHEIC declaration of COVID-19. \nIf the next PHEIC declaration does not occur by 2032, this resolves as > 31 December 2031.\nWhen will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern be declared by the WHO?\nThis will resolve as the date when WHO or its successor body releases a [statement](https://www.who.int/news) declaring a PHEIC.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:36.570Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-05-30T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8724/date-vdh-changes-covid-case-reporting/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "VDH [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) reports COVID-19 cases on a weekday basis (Monday-Friday).\nIt is of interest when CDC guidance might shift so that the cadence of COVID-19 case reporting from VDH shifts to a less frequent basis – at most, being no more than weekly.\nWhen will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?\nThis resolves as the date when VDH announces that they are switching to reporting COVID-19 cases at a frequency that is weekly or more infrequent than weekly.\nIf this does not occur before 1 May 2022, it resolves as > 1 May 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:41.687Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8725/future-covid-summer-peak-exceeds-winter-peak/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by date of symptom onset, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates on weekdays.\nVDH also [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.\nWill the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?\nThis will resolve positively if at any point during the summer months of June, July, or August the [7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Date of Symptom Onset”)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) or COVID-like illness [(“Weekly CLI visits (counts)”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) exceeds the peak of the winter (December, January, February) immediately preceding that summer.\nThis applies for all the winter and summer months through 1 November 2026.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:46.870Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8726/flu-season-in-next-decade-worse-than-2009-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.\nWill any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?\nThis will resolve positively if the weekly peak percent ILI exceeds 14.0% at any point before 2032 according to the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:52.061Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8727/-pediatric-deaths-during-2021-22-flu-season/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2020-2021 flu season, during which public health measures like mask-wearing were in place, saw [0 reports](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2021/10/Weekly-Influenza-Activity-Report-2020-21.pdf) of influenza-associated pediatric deaths. \nThere is now [substantial](https://www.hcplive.com/view/flu-season-high-levels-uncertainty-concern) [uncertainty](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600%2821%2900364-7/fulltext) as to what the nature (timing and magnitude) of the 2021-2022 flu season will be. This uncertainty [also extends to Virginia](https://www.progress-index.com/story/news/2021/10/05/vdh-official-hesitant-forecast-how-badly-flu-bug-bite-us-covid-masks-distance-protocols/6010406001/).\nHow many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the number of influenza-associated pediatric deaths that is reported by VDH in their “2021-22 Season Influenza Surveillance End-of-Season Report,” which will be accessed [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:07:57.210Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8728/additional-covid-boosters-authorized-by-fda/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 19 November 2021, FDA [authorized](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-covid-19-vaccine-boosters) COVID-19 boosters for all U.S. adults — these boosters constitute second doses for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and they constitute third doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n[Some](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/covid-seasonal-winter/620766/) have suggested that COVID-19 is now transitioning to a seasonal endemic state and that this might [necessitate seasonal yearly boosters](https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297981279617027).\nWill additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?\nThis will resolve positively if FDA authorizes additional booster doses for the entire U.S. adult population — this would mean a third dose for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and fourth doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:02.377Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8729/alphabet-wins-casp15-for-protein-folding/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction](https://predictioncenter.org/), or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at CASP14 in 2020 with an even bigger improvement.\nAlphabet looks eager to continue applying AI to biochemical problems, given the recent introduction of a new subsidiary company called [Isomorphic Labs](https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/blog) to focus on the drug discovery process.\nCASP15 is [currently scheduled](https://predictioncenter.org/casp15/index.cgi) to take place April-August 2022.\nWill an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?\nThis will resolve positively if an algorithm developed by a subsidiary of Alphabet (such as DeepMind or Isomorphic Labs) wins the CASP15 group rankings for Regular Targets, or whichever name is given to the general/overall category. The preferred source will be the [official CASP website](https://predictioncenter.org/). If there is no comparable \"general category\" compared to CASP14 and prior, or if there is no singular winner, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve negatively if the competition is held but no Alphabet company competes, or they don't win. If CASP15 is not held in 2022, or overall rankings are not decided, this resolves as ambiguous. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the contest begins.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:07.563Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-08T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8730/how-many-new-protein-structures-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The structures of proteins in different contexts are collected in the [Protein Data Bank](https://www.wwpdb.org/). These come from different types of experiments, mainly X-ray crystallography, NMR, and cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM). The number of structures [deposited each year](https://www.wwpdb.org/stats/deposition) has been increasing, rising from 2,938 in 2000 to 15,436 in 2020.\nHow many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?\nThe count for 2025 will appear in the Total Depositions column of the table “Statistics For PDB Structures That Are Deposited And Processed By Year And Site” on [this page](https://www.wwpdb.org/stats/deposition), or the most similar form of statistics provided by the Worldwide PDB organization at that time.\nThis resolves when the year 2026 is added to the table, indicating the running count for 2025 is complete.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:12.693Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8734/electric-vehicle-production-in-the-us-in-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, a number of predictions were being made about the future of EV's in the United States. \nThe news outlet [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2017/07/15/elon-musk-more-than-half-of-new-vehicles-will-be-electric-and-almost-all-autonomous-in-the-us-within-10-years/):\nsuggested that due to rapidly falling battery costs, there will be a point between 2020 and 2025 when all-electric powertrains reach cost parity with internal combustion engines before accounting for the cost of operation (gas and maintenance savings).\nAt that point, there will be virtually no reason for buyers to want gas-powered cars over battery-powered cars and automakers will divert all their investments to electric vehicles.\n[Elon Musk's forecast](https://electrek.co/2017/07/15/elon-musk-more-than-half-of-new-vehicles-will-be-electric-and-almost-all-autonomous-in-the-us-within-10-years/) in July 2017: \"My guess is probably in 10 years more than half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States.\"\nIn 2020, according to the [International Council on Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/publications/us-position-global-ev-jun2021), more than 450,000 electric vehicles were produced in the United States. That's 5.5% of the 8.8 million motor vehicles produced in the US that year, as [reported by Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/198488/us-and-global-motor-vehicle-production-since-1999/).\nThis question asks:\nWhat percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?\nThis question resolves according to credible industry surveys evaluating the number of EV's and all motor vehicles produced in the United States, conducted by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/198488/us-and-global-motor-vehicle-production-since-1999/) or another similar firm. Should the Statista service be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:18.609Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T20:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/gc-caused-by-natural-pandemic-if-gc-occurs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nOn this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe. As of November 25, [The Economist's median estimate](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) for the COVID-19 global death toll is 17.3M, which amount to 0.22% of the global population:\nAlthough the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 5.2m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 17.3m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 10.8m and 20.2m additional deaths.\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on our definition. It is estimated that the bubonic plague pandemic, which ocurred in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353, killed [between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history). Using [estimates of the global population at the time](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html), these numbers suggest that the Black Death killed between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.\nIf a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?\nThe question resolves positively if a global catastrophe occurs resulting from naturally occurring pandemic(s) that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Positive resolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opossed to being synthesized, edited or enhanced using Gain of Function techniques. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:39.415Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8750/will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, \"[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)\"\nAs an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test created over a thousand pieces of debris, a cloud of which came close to the International Space Station, \"forcing astronauts to take shelter for hours in a pair of spacecraft capable of returning them to Earth\" [according to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/science/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-debris.html).\nEvasive manoeuvres can help, but [according to NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html), we can track discrete objects >5cm, but debris shields are effective only for objects <1cm. This means there are objects between 1 cm and 5cm that can severely damage human spacecraft, but cannot be tracked.\nSpace debris could kill humans in three ways. First, space debris could damage human spacecraft and kill one or more of its occupants. Second, re-entering space debris could kill humans on earth. Third, space debris could take out satellites linked to critical infrastructures and thereby cause death on earth via failure of such infrastructure. This question only focuses on the first risk — i.e. astronaut fatalities in space. \nWill there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (AP, New York Times, etc.) report that space debris has killed at least one human by January 1, 2025. \nDirect death in space (human-occupied spacecraft) will count towards positive resolution. Direct death on earth from re-entering debris (e.g. hitting someone on the head) will not count. If an astronaut dies on earth from space-debris injuries sustained in space, the question will resolve positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:44.646Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:52:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8752/will-omicron-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa [announced](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/recording-briefing-on-covid-19-and-vaccination-programme-developments-25-november-2021/) that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets \n---Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.\nWill the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if, before 2023, the Omicron variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:49.930Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 267,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8754/date-usukeu-ok-omicron-specific-booster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nSome have [suggested](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820) that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines may have to be updated to target the Omicron variant in particular, given that its [unique constellation of mutations](https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923) may result in [lower](https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005692251992085) vaccine- and infection-elicited antibody neutralization. Vaccine producers including Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen, and Novavax have [said](https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1464225637590310938) they are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Moderna has announced it is [advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2).\nWill the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?\nThis question will resolve on the basis of whether the U.S. [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements), UK [MHRA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), or EU [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news-events) authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023. \nAn Omicron-specific booster must be specially formulated to specifically target the genetic sequence of the Omicron variant.\nThe booster dose formulation can also include formulations that target other variants (e.g., Delta) so long as the Omicron variant is specifically targeted as well. \nMulti-valent booster candidates, such those [being developed by Moderna](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2), would count toward positive resolution so long as they target at least 8 spike mutations that Omicron has accrued relative to the original Wuhan-Hu-1 sequence. In the case of Moderna, this would mean that: the mRNA-1273.211 multi-valent candidate that targets 4 of Omicron's spike mutations would not count toward positive resolution, while the mRNA-1273.213 multi-valent candidate that targets 8 of Omicron's spike mutations would count.\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:08:55.302Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 443,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8755/estimated-r0-of-omicron-variant/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThere is [substantial](https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421) [concern](https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1463906460610355202) that Omicron might be more transmissible than Delta.\nOne way to assess the transmissibility of a virus is to examine its basic reproduction number (R0), which [Delamater et. al (2019)](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article) define as:\nan epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models...R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns. R0 is rarely measured directly, and modeled R0 values are dependent on model structures and assumptions.\nAgain, note that that R0 calculation refers to [transmission in a theoretical population](https://www.healthline.com/health/r-naught-reproduction-number#meaning) where no one is vaccinated and no one has already had the disease. This question is thus trying to forecast the inherent transmissibility of Omicron, irrespective of its ability to evade preexisting immunity.\nWhat will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the mean R0 that is estimated for the Omicron variant according to the first credible systematic review that estimates this value. Such a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate R0 estimates from at least 3 studies. An example is the systematic review by [Liu and Rocklov (2021)](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/7/taab124/6346388):\nIn this study, we review the basic reproductive number (R0) of the Delta variant … We identified five studies, which estimated the basic reproductive number for Delta. Table 1 shows that the basic reproductive number for Delta ranged from 3.2 to 8, with a mean of 5.08.\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:00.684Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 570,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nThere is concern that Omicron might be deadlier than Delta.\nWill the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?\nThis will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is greater than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance increase, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant increase.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be less lethal than Delta.\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:05.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1074,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8758/will-a-variant-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n---Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets \n---Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.\nWill the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?\nThis question will resolve positive if, before 1 March 2022, a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).\nThank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:11.177Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the price of 1 ETH in USD on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8761/eth-end-of-year-price-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) is a cryptocurrency which was launched in 2015. Its price on January 18, 2022 was at 3,100 USD.\nWhat will be the price of 1 ETH in USD on December 31, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the trading price for ETH in USD on December 31, 2022, at 23:59:59 UTC, according to [Binance](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT?layout=pro), the exchange with the highest trading volume as of January 2022.\nIf no price is available for Binance on Dec 31, 2022, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n---Coinbase \n---Kraken \n---Bitfinex \n---Bitstamp \nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:21.710Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8762/us-covid-19-vaccination-rate-march-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With concerns over the Omicron variant rising precipitously around the world over Thanksgiving weekend 2021, there has been some [speculation](https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/27/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html) that the potentially [more transmissible](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/11/26/omicron-variant-post-1-were-fed-its-never-over/) Omicron variant may influence unvaccinated Americans to change their risk calculus and get the jab. \nAccording to a poll conducted in late October 2021, nearly two-thirds of unvaccinated Americans were at least [concerned enough about COVID-19 to regularly wear a mask](https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2021/10/majority-of-unvaccinated-americans-are-concerned-enough-about-covid-19-to-wear-masks/).\nThis question asks:\nWhat percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the total percentage of fully and partially vaccinated people according to Our World In Data's [Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) tracker for the date of March 1, 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:26.991Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-03T18:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on 1 January 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8763/global-excess-deaths-due-to-covid-19-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Economist provides a [daily estimate](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) of the number of global excess deaths due to COVID-19. Excess deaths are the number of deaths above the number predicted by trends in mortality rates. COVID-19 would be expected to create excess deaths by killing people, by consuming health resources, and by disrupting economic systems while potentially partly offsetting this by reducing flu transmission, traffic deaths, and air pollution. As of 28 November 2021, The Economist estimates 17.4 million excess deaths since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 95% confidence interval of 10.9 million to 20.3 million. Their estimate is more than triple the official global COVID-19 death toll of 5.2 million.\nWhat will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on 1 January 2023?\nThis question resolves to the estimate listed on The Economist's [\"daily estimate of excess deaths around the world\"](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) when it has been updated on 1 January 2023.\nIf The Economist no longer publishes this estimate directly, the question resolves to the sum of its [\"Tracking COVID-19 excess deaths across countries\"](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker). If it no longer publishes this either, the question resolves to the average of the two other most credible estimates of global excess deaths identified by a Metaculus moderator. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:32.234Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nWill the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?\nThis will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is less than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant decrease (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance decrease, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant decrease.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be more lethal than Delta.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:37.587Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1367,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8767/date-100m-doses-omicron-booster-distributed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n---New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility \n---B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA) \n---B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) \n---Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces \n---Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility \nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-%28b.1.1.529%29-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\nOn 26 November, Moderna announced that they would [\"rapidly advance an Omicron-specific booster candidate (mRNA-1273.529)\"](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2). Since this candidate is Omicron-specific, it would address all [26](https://twitter.com/_nference/status/1464404770098229250?s=20) of Omicron's spike mutations.\nModerna has also already been working on two multi-valent booster candidates, mRNA-1273.211 and mRNA-1273.213, which were designed to [\"anticipate mutations such as those that have emerged in the Omicron variant\"](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-strategy-address-omicron-b11529-sars-cov-2). Specifically, mRNA-1273.211 addresses four identical or similar spike mutations and mRNA-1273.213 addresses eight identical or similar spike mutations. Both of these multi-valent candidates are at a more advanced stage of study than the Omicron-specific booster candidate, mRNA-1273.529.\nWhen will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?\nThis will resolve as the date when the first credible report is made that at least 100 million doses of mRNA-1273.529, mRNA-1273.211, or mRNA-1273.213 have been distributed globally. Preferably, such a report would come from [Moderna](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases) itself. Alternatively, data from [Airfinity](https://www.airfinity.com/areas/covid-19) or credible news sources can be consulted if Moderna doesn't make an announcement or if these sources are the first to report that at least 100 million doses have been distributed.\n\"Distributed\" here means that the doses are no longer held by Moderna.\nCombinations of doses from mRNA-1273.529, mRNA-1273.211, or mRNA-1273.213 would count toward the 100M figure. For example, this can resolve as the date when 80M doses of mRNA-1273.529, 15M doses of mRNA-1273.211, and 5M doses of mRNA-1273.213 are distributed.\nIf this does not occur by 31 December 2022, this resolves as > 31 December 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:42.723Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8771/mickey-mouse-protection-act-ii-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1998, the U.S. congress passed the [Copyright Term Extension Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act), which extended copyright protection on works that were covered by copyright in 1923, changing the date on which they would enter the public domain to 2024.\nWill copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if, after December 31, 2023, all versions of Mickey Mouse (including his depiction in 1928 in Steamboat Willie) remain under the copyright of the Disney Corporation.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:48.583Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Section 230 be revoked or amended by January 20, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8774/section-230-revoked-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Communications Decency Act of 1996, and specifically [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230), were the result of a rare display of bi-partisanship during the Bill Clinton presidency (1993-2001). The legislation was driven by the efforts of Chris Cox, Republican congressman and former White House staffer for Ronald Reagan, who joined hands with Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden in an effort to allow then-nascent Internet service providers to moderate online discussions and suppress pornography and other content. \nThe next year, the Supreme Court struck down most of the anti-porn provisions on freedom-of-speech grounds, and Section 230 was left as the main consequence of the new legislation: Internet providers, whether moderating content or not, were from then on fairly safe from lawsuits regarding any of the content they publish and any decisions on which users are allowed to publish.\nBacklash against Section 230 grew among Republicans and the right in the 2010s, as discussion groups and influential users with hundreds of thousands of followers, such as Yiannopoulos, were banned from platforms with no recourse. Democrats and the left also expressed significant concerns from the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017, following accusations that Facebook – in particular – was used to spread disinformation that benefited Trump’s campaign. \nTrump launched [an effort to terminate Section 230](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-preventing-online-censorship/) in May 2020. Then-presidential candidate Joe Biden was also expressing support for striking down the controversial legislation, although he later took down [Trump’s executive order on the matter](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/biden-revokes-trump-executive-order-that-targeted-section-230/ar-BB1gLnW9).\nPolitical discussion is heating up on the issue and may heat up even further if the GOP regains control of Congress next year; Big Tech is resolutely opposed to the move – in March, Google CEO [Sundar Pichai warned Congress](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-ceo-warns-of-unintended-consequences-if-congress-kills-section-230-153748127.html) of unintended consequences if Section 230 were revoked.\nWill Section 230 be revoked or amended by January 20, 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to January 20, 2025, Section 230 of The Communications Decency Act of 1996 is revoked or modified in any way from its [current text](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_States_Code/Title_47/Chapter_5/Subchapter_II/Part_I/Section_230).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:53.738Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T15:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-22T15:26:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8779/spacex-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Space Exploration Technologies Corp, doing business as [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), is an American aerospace manufacturer, space transportation services and communications corporation headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. SpaceX manufactures the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, several rocket engines, Dragon cargo and crew spacecraft and Starlink communications satellites.\nIn November 2021, it was [reported that SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk had warned employees that the company \"face[s] genuine risk of bankruptcy if we cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/elon-musk-to-spacex-starships-raptor-engine-crisis-risks-bankruptcy.html) amid struggles in mass-producing Raptor engines for the company's nascent Starship series of launch vehicles.\nWill SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if SpaceX files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date. \nOnly petitions filed by Space Exploration Technologies Corp, or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of SpaceX's business (as judged by moderators) as of November 2021, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:09:58.939Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:09:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Stripe go public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8780/when-will-stripe-go-public/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_%28company%29),\nan Irish-American financial services and software as a service (SaaS) company dual-headquartered in San Francisco, United States and Dublin, Ireland.\nAt the moment, Stripe is [the most highly valued venture-backed private company](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/under-the-hood-a-closer-look-at-stripe-the-most-highly-valued-venture-backed-private-company-in-the-us/) in the United States. In recent months, Stripe has considered debuting [a public listing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-10/stripe-is-said-to-discuss-public-listing-with-bankers-for-2022) according to reports. However, recently Stripe co-founder John Collison [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/stripe-very-happy-staying-private-co-founder-john-collison-says.html), \"We’re very happy as a private company\".\nWhen will Stripe go public?\nThis question resolves on the date during which Stripe conducts an initial public offering, direct listing, or is acquired by a public company. If this does not happen by the resolve date, this question resolves as \">\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:04.098Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8782/mass-of-space-debris-removed-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. [The amount of debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris#/media/File:LEO-SpaceDebris-Nov2020.png) has grown as more spacecraft and satellites occupy low-earth orbit and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\nTo avoid this outcome [mitigation measures](https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Mitigating_space_debris_generation) are being put in place, including actively removing debris by capturing them with dedicated spacecraft, or by Earth-based methods such as using laser beams to slowly push them out of orbit. The total mass of space debris in orbit (as of January 2022) is estimated to be [more than 9,800 tonnes](https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers).\nWhat total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?\nThis question will be resolved as the total mass in tonnes (1000 kg) of cumulative space debris removed by January 1, 2040, according to the ESA's [Annual Space Environment Report](https://www.sdo.esoc.esa.int/environment_report/Space_Environment_Report_latest.pdf). In case the value is reported as a distribution, the mean value will be used to resolved this question. \n\"Active measures\" can include any human-driven measure to remove debris from sensitive orbits e.g. removal by other spacecraft, laser or ion beams, induced localized atmospheres, etc. They do not include measures such as post mission disposal performed by operational satellites.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:14.391Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as [a further potential point of conflict](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/preventing-escalation-in-baltics-introduction-pub-75879). One result of the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit was the decision to [“establish NATO’s forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, [and] Lithuania”](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm) in the face of up to 50,000 Russian troops being able to be deployed [within a few days](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.).\nThe Russian annexation of Crimea and support of separatist forces in Donbass has, at least in part, been attributed and explained by the high number of ethnic Russians living in these areas. According to estimations there are roughly [1 million ethnic Russians spread out over all three Baltic countries](http://www.hscentre.org/uncategorized/hard-and-soft-power-an-analysis-of-russian-influence-in-the-baltic-states/) , directly along the WMD (Russia’s Western Military District). Importantly, the fraction of ethnic Russians is significantly higher in the Eastern-most municipalities in all three countries and ranges from 5.8% (Lithuania) to 26.9% (Latvia) of the total population to over 40% (Lithuania) or 60% (Latvia/Estonia) in some [Eastern municipalities](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6cb4f0a7dcd64278b52840a7dc364127). This is a pattern akin to that of Donbass (and in some aspects to Crimea) that provides some prima facie reason to expect Russian involvement of some kind or another. \nA [2018 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/three-escalation-scenarios-pub-75882) has outlined three escalation scenarios: deliberate escalation (in which Russia attempts a land grab in the Baltics), inadvertent escalation (in which Russia capitalises on a domestic crisis and is then driven by domestic pressure to threaten to intervene), and accidental escalation (in which an intervention is caused by an unrelated accident). Even though each individual scenario is quite unlikely, the implications are significant, especially with regard to the potential of a nuclear escalation, and because [“safeguarding the security of the Baltic states is particularly important for NATO’s credibility and for Europe’s security”](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.) more generally.\nWill Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russia annexes any territory belonging (as of December 2021) to the countries of Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia before January 1, 2035, according to credible media reports. This will resolve positively if this annexation occurs for any length of time. This question will resolve negatively if Russia does not annex any such territory. For the purposes of this question, \"annexation\" means the posession or control of a territory, by means of force or without the consent of the Baltic nation's government.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:19.596Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the EU pass the AI Act?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [April 2021](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0206), the European Commission presented the proposal for the Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act). This legal framework sets out [“horizontal rules for the development, commodification and use of AI-driven products, services and systems within the territory of the EU”](https://law.stanford.edu/publications/eu-artificial-intelligence-act-the-european-approach-to-ai/), including regulation for AI systems of limited risk (such as chatbots) up to high risk AI systems (such as medical devices or stand-alone law enforcement) or unacceptable risk systems (such as systems that are reliably resulting in physical or psychological harms), summarised by the Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation [here](https://cdei.blog.gov.uk/2021/05/11/the-european-commissions-artificial-intelligence-act-highlights-the-need-for-an-effective-ai-assurance-ecosystem/). In a nutshell, the [regulations proposed would apply to](https://blog.burges-salmon.com/post/102hcof/eu-artificial-intelligence-act-what-has-happened-so-far-and-what-to-expect-next): (i) providers placing on the EU market, (ii) users of AI systems located within the EU, and (iii) providers and users of AI systems that are located in a third country, with the output being produced being used in the EU.\nNegotiations on the AI Act are jointly led by the internal market and civil liberties committees. It is expected that these negotiations will entail significant changes to both the content and the timeline of the act, for example in response to the September 2021 opinion on the draft legislation by the [European Economic and Social Committee](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=PI_EESC%3AEESC-2021-02482-AS). Recently, the Future of Life institute has also published a position paper on the AI Act, putting forth additional recommendations to be adapted in an effort to keep with up [“AI development [that is] occurring at breakneck speed”](https://futureoflife.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/FLI-Position-Paper-on-the-EU-AI-Act.pdf?x72900).\nPassing the AI Act would be a [hallmark achievement of EU regulation](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/), being one of the first of its kind. This might have wide-ranging impacts across the world in terms of setting regulatory guidelines that may then be adapted or rejected by other major powers, impacting AI policy world-wide.\nWhen will the EU pass the AI Act?\nThis question will resolve positively if the AI Act (specifically the [‘Regulation laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence’](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0206) or the same legislation with changed name) passes in the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union. It resolves ambiguously if there is no such political entity as the EU at the time of resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:24.750Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between Dec 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8791/lowest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-feb-25th/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have leveled off. [Short-term forecasts](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklycases) from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, the recently identified Omicron variant in the United States could influence the evolution of case rates in the coming months. \nThe lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of [129](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhat will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:29.919Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-02T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8796/highest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-feb-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have leveled off. [Short-term forecasts](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklycases) from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. \nThe highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of [6166](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhat will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:35.137Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-02T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8797/lowest-daily-case-timing-in-va-before-feb-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have leveled off. [Short-term forecasts](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklycases) from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. \nThe lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of [129](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhen will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:40.389Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-02T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8799/highest-daily-case-timing-in-va-before-feb-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After more than a month of decline since the Delta wave peak, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have leveled off. [Short-term forecasts](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#forecasting_weeklycases) from ForecastHub ensemble continue to project a decline, but with significant uncertainty across individual models. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. \nThe highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of [6166](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhen will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 3rd, 2021 and February 25th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:45.521Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-02T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the last baseball World Series be played?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8804/date-of-final-baseball-world-series/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In Star Trek: Deep Space 9 Season 1 Episode 16 \"If Wishes Were Horses\" (originally aired May 16, 1993, it is stated that the [final baseball World Series is played in the year 2042](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series).\nA simple extrapolation of World Series television viewership suggests that sometime around 2040, [TV viewership of the World Series will reach 0](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_television_ratings).\nAre we on the road to a Star Trek future?\nWhen will the last baseball World Series be played?\nThis question will resolve to the date that the final game of the final annual championship of Major League Baseball (MLB). For the purposes of this question, the World Series will have ended if there are no World Series games played for 5 consecutive years.\n--- \nIf the MLB is broken into multiple smaller leagues, it resolves to the date of the final game of the last annual championship of the MLB prior to that breaking up.\n--- \nIf the MLB becomes part of a larger league ([e.g. a Planetary Baseball League](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Planetary_Baseball_League)) it resolves to the date of the final game of the final annual championship of that larger league.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:10:56.545Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2061-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8805/yankees-win-the-2032-world-series-6-games/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.\nThe Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.\nAre we on a road to a Star Trek Future?\nWill the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?\nThe question resolves positively if the MLB annual championship that occurs in the year 2032 is won by a team named \"New York Yankees\" in exactly 6 games (e.g. the Yankees win 4 games, and their opponent wins 2).\n--- \nIf a team that was formerly named \"New York Yankees\" wins in 6 games, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf a team with a name that still refers New York city or state wins in 6 games (e.g. Brooklyn Yankees, New York State Yankees), this question resolves positively.\n--- \nIf the MLB changes its rules such that the World Series is played for fewer than 6 games, or more than 13 games (so it would be impossible to win in 6 games), this question resolves negatively.\n--- \nIf the MLB folds into smaller leagues prior to the 2032 World Series, this question resolves negatively.\n--- \nIf the MLB folds into a larger league prior to the 2032 World Series (such as a [Planetary Baseball League](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Planetary_Baseball_League)), and a team named \"New York Yankees\" still exists, if that team wins the World Series of the larger league in 6 games, this question resolves positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:01.742Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8808/total-fish-helped-by-fwi-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Fish Welfare Initiative](https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/impact) is an EA-aligned non-profit that works to improve the lives of farmed fish. They were launched in 2019.\nTheir website states, \"Our goal is to improve the lives of as many fish as possible.\" They define their impact as follows:\nIn “fish potentially helped”, we include all the fish living in a pond where\n1) We have implemented a welfare improvement that we believe otherwise would not have been implemented, and \n2) We feel ≥ 80% confident that the welfare improvement made a positive impact on the fish. To get the number of fish helped per dollar, we divide the sum of fish living in a pond with welfare improvements by the total expenses we have had as a charity so far.\nAs of January 19th 2022, FWI claims to have helped [420K fish](https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/impact) in total.\nWhat will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?\nThis question resolves as the total number of fish FWI claims to have helped on their [impact](https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/impact) page on January 1st, 2023. If FWI no longer reports this data or is no longer an active organization, this question will resolve as the last reported figure published by FWI.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:06.953Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8813/us-job-resignations-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Great Resignation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Resignation) is a term being used to describe the rate of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs, which has been greater than historical levels starting in April 2021. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that [4.27 million workers](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t04.htm) quit in August 2021, higher than the pre-pandemic average monthly norm of 3.5 million. BLS' survey does not collect worker's reasons for quitting (if they have a better job opportunity, are starting a business, or living on savings), but the trend may have similar causes as the Chinese [Tang Ping](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t04.htm) (\"lying flat\") movement.\nWhatever the cause, the Great Resignation adds a layer of complexity to the current US economy: unemployment is [reaching 4.2%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/) and businesses face [widespread labor shortages](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-15/tightest-u-s-job-market-since-1950s-set-to-drive-inflation), which is leading to [inflation on the USD of 6%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dGq).\nWhat will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the average monthly rate of voluntary quits reported in the calendar year 2022 by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t04.htm). This will be the seasonally-adjusted percentage of the workforce for voluntary quits in the entire US, in all non-farm industries. Current data can be found for this statistic [here](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate) by entering series ID JTS000000000000000QUR; for example, this statistic for 2020 would be 2.12%\nResolution may be delayed for 4-5 months until BLS' data is no longer marked \"preliminary\" for any month in 2022. If BLS no longer reports this data and there is no survey conducted by a US government agency with similar methodology, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:17.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-30T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will one or more Australian governments stop celebrating Australia Day on the 26th of January?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8822/australia-day-not-celebrated-on-26-january/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 26 January 1788, the First Fleet landed in Sydney Cove and raised the British flag. In the intervening centuries, the anniversary or a date close to it (like the nearest Monday) was marked with various degrees of formality, under a variety of names. \nSince the 1990s, 26 January has been a consistent public holiday across all Australian states and territories, under the name \"Australia Day\" which had been used since 1935 ([the legislated name in South Australia is \"26 January\",](https://about.abc.net.au/statements/australia-day-invasion-day-or-just-the-26-january/) but it is referred to in official publications as \"Australia Day\"). \nThe anniversary has been challenged since at least 1938, when it was branded a \"Day of Mourning\". During the 1988 bicentennial, it was protested as \"Invasion Day\", and in recent years a \"Change the Date\" campaign has gained momentum. \nIn 2021, [half of Australians predicted the date of Australia Day would change within the next 10 years, although only 28% supported a change.](https://www.ipsos.com/en-au/ipsos-australia-day-poll-report)\n[Several alternative dates have been suggested.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-25/australia-day:-change-the-date-options/9359260)\nMore history is available in a [1991 parliamentary brief](https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22library/prspub/VUN00%22).\nWhen will one or more Australian governments stop celebrating Australia Day on the 26th of January?\nThis question will resolve on the first 26th of January following any of these events:\n---a state or territory government announces that the 26th of January will no longer be a public holiday in that state or territory \n---a state, territory or federal government announces a different official name for the 26th of January public holiday than \"Australia Day\", to be preferred in official correspondence over \"Australia Day\" \n---a state, territory or federal government announces that they will recognise a different date as \"Australia Day\" \n---the federal government announces that the Australian of the Year Award will be awarded on a day other than the 26th of January. \nIf none of the above occur, this will resolve as > July 1, 2041\nA change from the 26th of January to a date referencing the 26th of January or the end of January (e.g. \"the closest Monday to the 26th of January\") does not count for these purposes. That would be an administrative change (presumably to guarantee an Australia Day long weekend), not a change in policy. \nFor the avoidance of doubt, local governments do not count. It must be the Commonwealth Government, one of the two (self-governing) territory governments or one of the six state governments.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:22.569Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-06T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-31T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-03-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8829/new-supreme-court-justice-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/) \nThe Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die.\nWill a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?\nIf a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIn order for this question to resolve positive a justice must be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate by the resolution date. A justice being nominated and not confirmed; or being added only via a recess appointment, would not be sufficient to cause this question to resolve positive unless they are also confirmed by the Senate before the resolve date. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:27.944Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8831/liz-truss-to-become-tory-leader-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.\nAs of December 2021, Truss enjoys a [very high approval rating from members of the Conservative Party.](https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html)\nWill Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2025, Elizabeth Truss holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party on a permanent basis (an interim leadership pending a leadership contest does not count). The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:33.296Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Czech Republic have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8833/when-czech-republic-stops-burning-coal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, coal was responsible for [46% of electricity generation](https://www.iea.org/reports/czech-republic-2021) in the Czech Republic. \nThe Czech coal commission has recommended a 2038 phase-out date for coal-fired generation. The incoming government has agreed to an earlier phase out, with one candidate for environment minister proposing [2030, or 2033 at the latest.](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/czechia-could-phase-out-coal-by-2033-at-the-latest/)\nSee related questions for [Germany](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7218/when-germany-stops-burning-coal/) and [Australia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/).\nWhen will the Czech Republic have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid?\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following occur:\n---No coal-fired power plant in the Czech Republic is connected to the electricity grid for period of at least two weeks \n---Coal provides less than 1% of the Czech Republic's domestic electricity generation over any 12 month period \nIf neither of these occur by Jan 1, 2046, this question will resolve as > Jan 1, 2046.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:38.487Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-06T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8835/country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.\nWill the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?\nResolves positively if there are credible news stories or government publications reporting that in U.S. immigration law, the per-country caps on employment-based visas have been phased out before 2025.\nPositive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas. \nIt also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:43.689Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8840/ai-performance-on-math-dataset-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Hendrycks et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874),\nMany intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics problems. Each problem in MATH has a full step-by-step solution which can be used to teach models to generate answer derivations and explanations. [...]\nEven though we are able to increase accuracy on MATH, our results show that accuracy remains relatively low, even with enormous Transformer models. Moreover, we find that simply increasing budgets and model parameter counts will be impractical for achieving strong mathematical reasoning if scaling trends continue. While scaling Transformers is automatically solving most other text-based tasks, scaling is not currently solving MATH. To have more traction on mathematical problem solving we will likely need new algorithmic advancements from the broader research community.\nIn addition,\nIt's also worth mentioning the competition maths problems in MATH are designed under the assumption that competitors don't use calculators or script executors. That way, solving them requires making a clever observation or reducing the search space to make the problem tractable. With a script executor, competitors do not need to figure out how to succinctly reason to the conclusion and cleverness is rarely needed. \nThere are other competition problems designed to be difficult even with calculators and script exectuors, but there are not nearly as many of these problems lying around.\nIf we care about measuring and forecasting mathematical problem solving capabilities with MATH, it will probably make sense to give ML models a no calculator restriction, just as is done for human contestants.\nThe best model in the paper only received an average accuracy of 6.9% on the dataset.\nWhat will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?\nThis question resolves as the state-of-the-art average accuracy score on the [MATH dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.03874.pdf), as reported prior to January 1st 2025. Credible reports include but are not limited to blog posts, arXiv preprints, and papers.\nAdmins will use their discretion in determining whether a result should be considered valid. Obvious cheating, such as including the test set in the training data, does not count. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:48.919Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8841/-cultivated-meat-ventures-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [the State of the Industry Report 2020 on Cultivated Meat by the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/COR-SOTIR-Cultivated-Meat-2021-0429.pdf) page 16 - 18 (Table 1: The complete list, as of December 2020, of publicly disclosed startups focused exclusively on developing cultivated meat inputs or end products. The list includes companies employing animal cell culture to create alternatives to other animal products, such as dairy, eggs, and gelatin.), in 2020 the cultivated meat’s commercial landscape comprised of more than 70 start-ups focused on developing cultivated meat inputs, services, or end products. Since this is a rapidly evolving industry we ask:\nHow many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?\nThis question resolves based on the State of the Industry Report 2022 on Cultivated Meat, which is annually produced by the Good Food Institute. No further effort will be done to verify information in this report.\nIn case this report is not available, best effort will be made to collect a list of companies focusing exclusively on cultivated meat from GFI's [alternative protein company database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/), news reports, lists compiled by other organizations, and Wikipedia (while checking references). As the original GFI report, we will also count companies employing animal cell culture to create alternatives to other animal products, such as dairy, eggs, and gelatin. We shall consider companies included in the 2020 GFI report and companies founded in 2020 or later. We shall not consider for example an established large company that has switched its focus to exclusively cultivated meat (or a subsidiary created and financed by an established company) to be a 'startup'.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:54.048Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8842/-people-in-severe-food-insecurity-be-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[FAO State of food security and nutrition in the world 2021 report](https://www.fao.org/3/cb4474en/online/cb4474en.html#chapter-1-introduction) states:\n\"Since well before the COVID-19 pandemic, several major drivers have put the world off track to ending world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have made it significantly more challenging to achieve this goal.\"\n\"In 2014, the long decline in world hunger that had begun in 2005 came to a halt. The number of people experiencing undernourishment began to slowly increase until, in 2020, the world witnessed an unprecedented setback in its hunger eradication efforts, as the latest estimates in this year’s report indicate. Moreover, progress in reducing child stunting has slowed significantly, and adult overweight and obesity continue to increase in rich and poor countries alike.\"\n[....]\"While the global prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity (measured using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale) has been slowly on the rise since 2014, the estimated increase in 2020 was equal to that of the previous five years combined. Nearly one in three people in the world (2.37 billion) did not have access to adequate food in 2020 – an increase of almost 320 million people in just one year. The sharpest increases in moderate or severe food insecurity in 2020 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Africa. In Northern America and Europe, food insecurity increased for the first time since the beginning of FIES data collection in 2014. Of the 2.37 billion people facing moderate or severe food insecurity, half (1.2 billion) are found in Asia, one-third (799 million) in Africa, and 11 percent (267 million) in Latin America and the Caribbean. Close to 12 percent of the global population was severely food insecure in 2020, representing 928 million people – 148 million more than in 2019.\" \nForecast on the further development of this global problem can be very useful. Thus we ask:\nWhat will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?\nThis question will resolve based on the data about the total estimated amount of people in severe food insecurity (in millions) globally from the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report (or another publication by FAO that measures the same or equivalent metric for this period).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:11:59.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8843/-of-plant-based-beef---of-conventional-beef/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America. \nHowever, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, [animal agriculture is a hard market to beat](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/2/2/22260454/impossible-foods-burger-plant-based-meat). Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods. \nAs plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually [become much more cost effective](https://gfi.org/blog/plant-based-meat-will-be-less-expensive/) than animal based products. \nAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices.\nWill the average price per pound of Beyond and Impossible plant-based ground beef become lower than the average cost per pound of conventional ground beef in the US before April 22, 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the mean price per pound of plant-based meat, averaged from Impossible Food and Beyond Meat, is less than the average price per pound of all uncooked ground beef before April 22, 2023. Prices should be calculated in US dollars, unadjusted for inflation. \nThe average price per pound of plant-based meat will be averaged from the retail price per pound of Impossible Foods ground beef ([using their 12 ounce pack](https://impossiblefoods.com/products/burger/12-oz-pack)) and Beyond Meat ground beef ([using their Beef Bulk Pack](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/beyond-beef-six-pack?variant=beef). If these specific products are not available at time of resolution, a comparable bulk-package ground beef product by the same company will be used instead. Prices for each product will be taken from either the manufacturer's direct-to-customer e-commerce website or major US online grocers (such as Walmart or Amazon), whichever is cheapest, excepting sales and special offers.\nWe are asking only about companies Beyond and Impossible. If a new company is created (other than Beyond/Impossible) that creates artificial ground beef and is able to bring prices down to answer this question, this question will still resolve negatively. (A year is a short time to start a new company and such a new company may have introductory prices that don't reflect real costs).\nIf either Beyond Meat or Impossible foods stops producing plant-based ground beef before the resolution is met, or if either company discontinues their multi-pound ground beef options, admins can select other similar plant-based companies, or company products, that adequately fulfill the brief to resolve the question. Other products, if used to calculated the average price per pound of plant-based ground beef, must be 100% plant-based and listed as a substitute for ground beef.\nConventional ground beef prices will be sourced from the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandmidwest_table.htm) (the \"U.S. city average\" figures shall be used). If these statistics are not available in April 2023, an equivalent statistic will be chosen, preferably published by a government organization.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:04.450Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat([https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1…](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/)). China could be one of its successors.\nAs [the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/blog/china-is-making-moves-on-cultivated-meat/) states:\n\"A National Key R&D Program titled “Green Biological Manufacturing” was launched by China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in late 2020. Plant-based and cultivated meat manufacturing are among the 20+ research projects supported by this grant, which will unleash a reported 600 million RMB ($93M USD) in funding. It is estimated that around 20 million RMB of that will be specifically aimed at developing alternative protein.\"\nPeople in China consumed 86 million tonnes of meat in 2020, about 30% of global demand. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if China approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:09.590Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8845/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-eu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The European Union is seen by many as the Singapore´s possible successor.\n[As Techspoon](https://thespoon.tech/europe-the-u-s-israel-which-country-might-be-next-to-approve-cultured-meat/) states:\n\"The European Commission has a clearly defined process for bringing cultured meat to market that is known as [Novel Food authorization](https://ec.europa.eu/food/safety/novel_food/authorisations_en). For example, Mosa Meat, based in the Netherlands, has said [it is focusing on Singapore and Europe](https://agfundernews.com/mosa-meat-ceo-maarten-bosch-on-choosing-non-gmo-partnering-for-expansion-and-choosing-beef.html) for its first launches, specifically citing Europe’s Novel Food authorizations as a reason. Europe is also home to many other cultured meat companies, including Blue Biosciences, Mirai, and CellulaREvolution.\" \nOn the other hand, the European approval process is very complicated. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)’s risk assessment process alone takes nine months. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the European Union approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the European Union approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded. An approval at the EU level is necessary for positive resolution, approval at individual state level is not sufficient, even if all the EU members individually issued such approvals.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:14.771Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By April 2023, will Israel approve cultivated meat for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). Benjamin Netanyah, as the Prime Minister of Israel, tasted cultivated meet in December 2020 and [according to PR Newswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/il/news-releases/israels-prime-minister-tastes-aleph-farms-cultivated-steak-301187468.html) declared:\n\"I have directed the State Secretary Tzahi Braverman to appoint a body to serve these industries in order to connect and oversee all the stakeholders operating in this field. Israel will become a powerhouse for alternative meat and alternative protein.\"\nAccording to Bruce Friedrich, Executive Director of The Good Food Institute \"The Israeli government has turned the country into a nerve center for plant-based and cultivated meat innovation.\"\nAlso several world's leading cultivated meat companies like Aleph Farms, SuperMeat, MeaTech and Future Meat Technologies have headquarters in Israel. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will Israel approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the Israel approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:19.897Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8847/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. Its co-founder, Josh Tetrick, hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\" Another San Francisco-based company, Wildtype, expects commercial sales of its cultured salmon in 2022. Its officials say they will be ready to apply for U.S. regulatory approval to sell its salmon as soon as the USDA and FDA publish the protocols.\nCultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. \nHowever, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product. Thus we ask:\nBy April 2023, will the US approve cultivated meat for human consumption?\nThis question resolves positively if the US approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before April 1, 2023. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:25.050Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brazil ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8848/brazilian-export-ban-on-soybeansricemaize-/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Brazil ban export of soybeans or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Brazilian officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Brazil, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or both of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of soybeans or maize.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Brazilian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:30.194Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8849/capital-investment-in-cultivated-meat-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "By the end of 2020, more than 70 companies around the world were focused on producing cultivated meat and seafood or serving these producers along the value chain, according to the Good Food Institute's [2020 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/). \nIn 2020, cultivated meat companies received more than $366 million in disclosed venture capital investment, nearly six times the amount invested in 2019. Thus we ask:\nWhat will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?\nThis question resolves based on the State of the Industry Report of the Good Food Institute for the year 2022. In the absence of such a report, a best estimate will be made based on available market reports and analyses by organizations specializing in cultivated meat and possibly reports by cultivated meat companies.\nCultivated meat is defined by [the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/) as:\n\"Cultivated meat, also known as cultured meat, is genuine animal meat (including seafood and organ meats) that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat.\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:41.066Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China ban export of rice, wheat, or maize by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8850/chinese-export-ban-of-rice-wheat-or-maize/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill China ban exports of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Chinese officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside China, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics, e.g. [by the USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/u-s-agricultural-trade-data-update/). The USDA publishes monthly export statistics so this would not work for a ban shorter than one month. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize or soybean.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that has some authority over export control, such as the President or the Department of Commerce) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023 as follows. If there are no secondary (news, Wikipedia) reports of such a ban having occurred, this question resolves negatively. If there are secondary reports of such a ban, an attempt will be made to verify them using primary sources, such websites of Chinese Government agencies (such as the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Department of Commerce). If the ban is no longer in effect, archived versions of government websites may be considered.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:46.271Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8851/cultivated-meat-profitable-by-april-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chicken.html).\nAnd it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace. \n\"There are now more than [70 cellular meat companies globally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/whole-foods-founder-mackey-invests-in-producer-of-cultured-meat) cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney.\"\nLarge, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry [grew 6x!](https://gfi.org/blog/2020-state-of-the-industry-highlights/)\nAlthough no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely. Therefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development.\nWill a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if a company that focuses primarily on the production and sale of cultivated meat products becomes profitable by generating an overall profit or financial gain within a 365 day period. \nWe define \"focuses primarily\" to mean a company must generate at least 80% of its revenue from the sale of cultivated meat-related products, or cultivated meat-related intellectual property. All products produced by the company must include at least 20% cultivated meat grown from animal cells that do not require the slaughter of the animal. Cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in a cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nThe profit announcement must be reported through at least three reputable news sources, or through media releases by the company. The company does not need to publish balance sheets if it is private, although in the case the company becomes public before, or during the year it becomes profitable, balance sheets can provide resolution. It is also sufficient if a profit claim is made by a market report or analysis by an organization such as The Good Food Institute.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:51.419Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8852/fresh-beef-cost-in-january-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the main drivers of consumers' food purchase decisions is price. Therefore, reaching price parity with animal-based meat is an important step toward widespread adoption of plant-based and other alternative meat products. This can of course be achieved by alternative protein companies reducing the cost of their products. And in fact, several plant-based meat companies moved closer to price parity with animal-based meat products in 2020: - Impossible Foods cut the price of its plant-based meat products by an average of 15 percent for food service distributors. - Beyond Meat began selling Cookout Classic 10-burger value packs. As reported by CNBC, the suggested retail price for the Cookout Classic patties translated to $6.40 per pound. Animal-based beef patties sold for $5.26 per pound the week of Beyond’s Cookout Classic announcement. - Before the Butcher’s Mainstream plant-based patties rolled out in near price parity with animal-based ground beef.\nHowever, another mechanism is the cost of conventional meat, including beef, increasing. According to the USDA's [\"Summary of retail prices and price spreads\" data](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/meat-price-spreads/), the price of \"Beef - all fresh\" was 754.8 cents per retail pound in October 2021. Thus we ask:\nHow much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?\nThis question resolves in July 2023, based on the [USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/meat-price-spreads/) dataset [Choice beef values and spreads and the all-fresh retail value](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/DataFiles/52160/beef.xls?v=4517.1), as the \"All fresh beef retail value\" in cents/lb. for January 2023. If this dataset is not available, an equivalent statistic will be used, preferably published by the USDA or another government body, or by an industry association.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:12:56.614Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8853/global-production-of-biofuels-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Biofuels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuel) are fuels created from contemporary biomass, as opposed to fossil fuels, that are created from millions-year-old biomass. Biofuels can be made either from crops grown specifically for this purpose or from biological waste. A common example of a biofuel is ethanol made from corn or sugarcane.\nBiofuel production has many issues, summarized for example [in this video by Real Engineering](https://youtu.be/OpEB6hCpIGM) (with numerous references in the description). In essence, biofuels are just another way of capturing solar energy. However, biofuel production is several times less efficient way of capturing solar energy than e.g. photovoltaic panels (given the inherent inefficiency of photosynthesis, plus the energy consumed by harvesting and processing). In some cases, for example ethanol production from corn, some estimates [even claim it to be energy negative](http://www.energyjustice.net/files/ethanol/pimentel2003.pdf) (i.e., you get less energy from the biofuel that you put into its production). This should make such production economically unviable. However, biofuel production [is heavily subsidized in many countries including the US](https://www.taxpayer.net/energy-natural-resources/understanding-u-s-corn-ethanol-and-other-corn-based-biofuels-subsidies/). An indirect form of subsidy in many countries is biofuel mandates, which require a certain percentage of renewable fuels to be mixed in gasoline sold to customers. In US, this is set by the [EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard](https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard-program/overview-renewable-fuel-standard). Currently, US gasoline usually contains about 10% bioethanol, in addition to other renewable fuels.\nBiofuel production also has implications for food security. It competes with food production for land area, water and other resources. For example, [over 40% of corn produced in the US is used for ethanol production](https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/ethanol-market-is-disturbing-as-hell-to-american-farmers-and-now-there-s-covid-19) ([up from 5% in 2000](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2014/04/20/its-final-corn-ethanol-is-of-no-use/)), decreasing the amount of corn available for feeding people and livestock. This [has been blamed](https://www.technologyreview.com/2011/03/23/196198/ethanol-blamed-for-record-food-prices/) for [a rise in corn prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2532/corn-prices-historical-chart-data). Biofuel production also [requires many times more water](https://www.circleofblue.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Gerbens-Hoekstra-VanderMeer-2008-waterfootprint-bioenergy.pdf) than other energy production methods (~ 58 m³/GJ compared to e.g. 0.1 m³/GJ for nuclear and 0.3 m³/GJ for solar).\nGiven the impact of biofuel production on food prices and availability, we ask:\nWhat will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?\nFor 2020, the value was 1677 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (up from 1125 in 2010).\nResolution will be based on BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html), data from which are also available through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/biofuel-production?country=~OWID_WRL). In case this report is not available for 2022 at time of resolution, another overview report by a government or multinational organization, industry association, scientific organization or a major energy sector company or a scientific article published in a peer-reviewed journal will be used instead.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:01.763Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8854/indian-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill India ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Indian officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside India, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Indian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:06.921Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia ban export of rice, wheat or maize before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8855/russian-export-ban-on-wheat-/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Russia ban export of wheat or maize before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Russian officials announce an export ban for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them. This question will resolve on April 1, 2023.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Russia, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Russian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:12.102Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8856/thai-a1-super-rice-max-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?\nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"Thailand (Bangkok),\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Rice( Thai A1 Super)\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\"\nWe ask about the maximum weekly price of the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023.\nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:17.228Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8857/thai-a1-super-rice-min-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?\nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"Thailand (Bangkok),\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Rice (Thai A1 Super),\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\"\nWe ask about the minimum weekly price of the Thai A1 super rice per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023.\nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:22.395Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Thailand ban export of rice before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8858/thailands-export-ban-on-rice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Thailand ban export of rice before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Thailand officials announce an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Thailand, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of rice.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the King, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Thai legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:27.561Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8859/ukraine-export-ban-on-wheat-by-42023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Ukrainian officials announce an export ban for at least one type of wheat anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Ukraine, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Ukrainian legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:32.735Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US ban export of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8860/us-export-ban-on-ricewheatmaizesoybeans-by-42023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill the US ban exports of rice, wheat, soybeans or maize before April 2023?\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside the US, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics, e.g. [by the USDA](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/u-s-agricultural-trade-data-update/). The USDA publishes monthly export statistics so this would not work for a ban shorter than one month. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nThe ban can restrict only one of these crops or more of them. It is also sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of wheat or rice or maize or soybean.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that has some authority over export control, such as the President or the Department of Commerce) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023 as follows. If there are no secondary (news, Wikipedia) reports of such a ban having occurred, this question resolves negatively. If there are secondary reports of such a ban, an attempt will be made to verify them using primary sources, such websites of US Government agencies (such as the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Department of Commerce). If the ban is no longer in effect, archived versions of government websites may be considered.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:37.898Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8861/us-gulf-hard-red-winter-wheat-max-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Meanwhile, price levels and volatility are influenced by complicated factors, including technology, climate change, and fuel prices and predicting them is very difficult. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat per metric tonne before April 22, 2023? \nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"US Gulf,\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Wheat(US No.2 hard red winter),\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\" \nWe ask about the maximum weekly price of the US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023.\nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:43.043Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat per metric tonne before April, 22 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8862/us-gulf-hard-red-winter-wheat-min-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Meanwhile, price levels and volatility are influenced by complicated factors, including technology, climate change, and fuel prices and predicting them is very difficult. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat contract per metric tonne before April, 22 2023?\nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"US Gulf,\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Wheat(US No.2 hard red winter),\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\"\nWe ask about the minimum weekly price of the US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023. \nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:48.199Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 yellow maize per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8863/us-gulf-yellow-maize-max-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 yellow maize per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?\nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"US Gulf,\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Maize(US No.2 Yellow),\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\"\nWe ask about the maximum weekly price of the US Gulf No.2 yellow maize per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023.\nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:53.363Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 yellow maize per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8864/us-gulf-yellow-maize-min-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.2 yellow maize per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?\nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"US Gulf,\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Maize(US No.2 Yellow),\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\"\nWe ask about the minimum weekly price of the US Gulf No.2 yellow maize per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023.\nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:13:58.515Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.1 yellow soybean per metric tonne before 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8865/us-gulf-yellow-soybean-max-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the maximum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.1 yellow soybean per metric tonne before 22, 2023?\nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"US(Gulf),\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Soybean (US, No.1 yellow)),\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\"\nWe ask about the maximum weekly price of the US Gulf No.1 yellow soybean per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023.\nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:03.649Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.1 yellow soybean per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8866/us-gulf-yellow-soybean-min-price/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Food price volatility is an important factor behind food insecurity globally, and excessively high and low prices can place severe pressure on urban poor and rural communities respectively. Key futures markets play an important role in setting global benchmark prices, and their maximum and minimum levels have significant implications for agricultural systems globally. Thus we ask:\nWhat will be the minimum weekly price recorded for the US Gulf No.1 yellow soybean per metric tonne before April 22, 2023?\nThis question will resolve on April 22, 2023 based on the data of [FPMA Tool of Food and Agriculture Organization](https://fpma.apps.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/#/dataset/international), where for the Origin category we choose \"US(Gulf),\" for the Commodity category we choose \"Soybean (US, No.1 yellow)),\" for the Currency category we choose \"US Dollar\" and for the Measure category we choose \"tonne.\"\nWe ask about the minimum weekly price of the US Gulf No.1 yellow soybean per metric tonne any time between opening of this question and April 22, 2023.\nIf this resolution source is unavailable, we will use data from another respected organisation.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:08.777Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8867/us-retail-sales-of-plant-based-meat-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Plant-based meat, becoming popular for its eco-friendly and environmentally conscious footprint, finds itself across US grocery stores from brands like Impossible Foods, Beyond Meat, or Just.\n[According to GFI data](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/), in 2020, sales of plant-based meat in the US totaled $ 1.4 billion, a 45% growth compared to 2019. Global data suggests a worldwide [annual growth rate of 15.8%](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/plant-based-meat-market-size-is-projected-to-reach-35-4-billion-by-2027--cagr-15-8-polaris-market-research-301166257.html) between 2020 and 2027, propelling the global market to over $35 billion dollars. We thus ask, \nBy what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?\nThis question resolves based on [the Good Food Institute report](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/) called \"U.S. retail market data for the plant-based industry.\" The total US plant-based meat sales (in dollars) figure from the report for 2022 will be compared to the one from the [report for 2020](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/COR-SOTIR-Plant-based-meat-eggs-and-dairy-2021-0504.pdf) to compute percentage growth. If such a report or such a number is not available from GFI for 2022, this question will be evaluated based on another market report or data source (e.g. from the Plant Based Foods Association) that is available for both 2020 and 2022 so that numbers from the same source are compared.\nIf a report from the same source for these two years cannot be obtained, best effort will be made to estimate the growth based on available sources (preferably analyses and reports by market research organizations and organizations specialized in plant-based meat and related fields; an estimate could also be made based on sales growth data for several top plant-based meat companies, if available).\nPlant-based meat is defined as a meat substitute that is produced directly from plants (or e.g. protein extracted from plants). Plant-based meat does not include tofu.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:13.904Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8868/vietnamese-export-ban-on-wheatrisemaize-/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Export bans are used in some cases by exporting countries to lower domestic prices and increase availability during shortages. However, they also add significant price pressure by further restricting supply, and the introduction of export bans can lead to a cascade. Thus we ask:\nWill Vietnam ban export of rice by April 2023?\nThe question resolves positively if Vietnam officials announces an export ban anytime between the question opening and March 31, 2023 for either rice or wheat or maize or for two or all three of them.\nAn export ban is defined as a complete prohibition on exporting at least one type of the three grains listed above.\nThe question resolves positively if such an export ban:\n--- \nComes into force at any time between the opening of this question and March 31, 2023, even if it is later lifted (regardless of the duration of the ban). It must actually come into force. If it is only announced but cancelled before coming into force, the question resolves negatively.\n--- \nThe ban must apply to exports anywhere outside Vietnam, not just a specific region.\n--- \nThe ban can have narrow exceptions, such as allowing exports upon special authorization or in case of a humanitarian crisis. Exceptions will be considered 'narrow' if exports of the affected crops during the ban are less than 5% (in either dollar amount or weight) of what they were in the same period of the preceding year. If the ban is long enough and data are available, this will be checked based on actual export statistics. If this cannot be evaluated based on data, best judgement will be used to estimate whether the exceptions are narrow enough to likely cut exports below 5%.\n--- \nIt is sufficient if the ban restricts e.g. only one specific strain or type of rice.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively even if the legality of such a ban is contested (as long as it was issued by a government body that might plausibly have some authority over export control, such as the President, Prime Minister, the Cabinet as a whole or a relevant Ministry -- no effort will be made to research the Vietnamese legal system in detail) or it is later struck down by a court.\nThis question will resolve on April 1, 2023, based on at least three credible news reports. In case of doubt, limited effort may be made to investigate primary sources (e.g. machine translated versions of government websites).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:19.034Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-22T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What volatility will BTC realize from start-of-year 2025 to start-of-year 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8869/btc-realized-volatility-2025-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An important question for the future of cryptocurrencies in general and BTC in particular is what will happen to their volatility in the future. As of the time of writing of this question it's normal for BTC prices to have a realized volatility on the order of 3% per day or 60% annualized; in other words, we can think that on a typical day the price of BTC will change by around 3% in either direction. This volatility makes it more difficult to use BTC as both a medium of exchange and a store of wealth.\nAsset price data to answer this question is scant, even at the horizon of 3 to 5 years that is relevant for this question. Nevertheless, the question is important for the future of cryptocurrencies. Will their current level of volatility die down in the future, and if so, how fast will this happen? \nTo get forecasters to answer a special case of this question, we ask:\nWhat volatility will BTC realize from start-of-year 2025 to start-of-year 2027?\nThis question will resolve as the sample standard deviation (in other words, standard deviation with the Bessel correction) of the daily log returns of BTC from 1 January 2025 to 31st December 2026. \nTo provide more detail; for every day ranging from 1 January 2025 to 31st December 2026 inclusive, let be the closing price of BTC obtained from the [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/fx/BTCUSD/historical-prices) for the day . The question asks for the sample standard deviation of the collection containing\n(in other words, the daily log return in units of percentages) for each day in the specified range.\nImportantly, this volatility is not annualized, so forecast accordingly.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:24.832Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-23T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on Dec 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8870/confirmed-global-covid-19-cases-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 7, 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 265,194,191 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on Dec 31, 2022?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on January 1, 2023 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to December 31, 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:29.980Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8871/confirmed-global-covid-19-deaths-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 7, 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 5,254,116 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on January 1, 2023 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to December 31, 2022. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:35.129Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by Dec 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8872/covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 7, 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 7,952,750,402 COVID-19 vaccines doses have been administered worldwide. This figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nHow many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by Dec 31, 2022?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on January 1, 2023 for vaccine doses administered data reported by the WHO up to December 31, 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:40.394Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8873/confirmed-us-covid-19-deaths-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 7, 2021, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 785,655 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. on December 31, 2022?\nThe [CDC COVID-19 Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on January 1, 2023 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to December 31, 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:45.723Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 274,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8879/usa-covid-19-doses-administered-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 7, 2021, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 471,700,443 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in the U.S. This figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nHow many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?\nThe [CDC COVID-19 Vaccine Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total) will be consulted on January 1, 2023 for vaccine doses administered data reported by the CDC up to December 31, 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:50.858Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8880/omicron-dominant-variant-dec-31-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 7, 2021, GISAID, a global sequencing database reports that the variant of concern (VOC) called Delta by the World Health Organisation is the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2. In the seven days to December 5, 2021, 6,160 of 6,371 (98%) SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced and submitted to GISAID were identified as the Delta variant.\nWill Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?\nThe [GISAID variant tracker ](https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/) will be consulted on January 10, 2023 for the share of SARS-CoV-2 variants sequenced in the week to December 31, 2022 for the share of global sequences by each VOC. If the top variant's name includes \"omicron\" by the resolution source, then this will resolve positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:14:56.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 372,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \nAccording to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and that this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. Through 2020, the hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2022 be the hottest year on record?\nThis question will resolve positively if 2022 is the hottest year on record according to [NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event that there is a statistical tie with a previous year, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:01.341Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 314,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8885/conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”\nWill there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of the following occurs between December 1, 2021 and December 31, 2022:\n--- \nThere are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China.\n--- \nThere are at least three credible news reports of an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:06.561Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 272,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/) (closed) \n[The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) in 2015 limited the [scope and scale of Iran's nuclear program](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance).The USA unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and began reimposing economic sanctions against the country. Since then Iran has enriched uranium above limits agreed by the JCPOA, according to the [latest assessment from IAEA](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-offers-less-for-more-as-vienna-talks-stall/). [Negotiations resumed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna) in Vienna in December 2021 between Iran and the P5+1 to agree on another deal. \nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before January 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2023, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. the question will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Iranian governments, or credible media reports.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:16.950Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8897/israel-palestine-peace-talks-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Israeli government has not held direct peace discussions with the Palestinian Authority [since 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%932014_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks). In May 2021 a conflict, mostly centered on the Gaza Strip, [left nearly 300 people dead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis). The Israeli government continues to build settlements inside territory of the West Bank, complicating a future two-state solution to the conflict.\nWill Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, there are in-person bilateral or multi-lateral talks between Israel's government and the government of the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority, according to official announcements by both parties.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:22.111Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine [to nearly 100,000](https://nyti.ms/3GORIEb), according to the New York Times. In 2014 [Russia invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US [President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-in-video-call-amid-growing-tensions/2021/12/06/e089e36a-5707-11ec-a219-9b4ae96da3b7_story.html) that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions.\nWill Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine [already occupied](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:27.469Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2288,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8899/hungary-eu-exit-referendum-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Hungary [joined the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Hungarian_European_Union_membership_referendum) with 9 other eastern European nations after a 2003 referendum which saw 83.8% of voters in favor of joining the EU. Since then, Hungary has recieved [criticism from EU leaders](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/europe/hungary-eu-lgbt-mark-rutte-intl/index.html) for a June 2021 bill which banned LGBT content in Hungarian schools. CNN journalist Luke McGee noted that Article 7, a mechanism for the EU to expel a member state, would be \"very unlikely\" to occur, as it requires the unanimous vote of all other member nations.\nFinance Minister Mihály Varga [said in April 2021](https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-to-leave-the-eu-with-the-start-of-the-next-decade/) that he would vote to remain in the EU if a hypothetical referendum were held, but added\nthere is a chance for a new perspective on the issue. Especially if the attacks coming from Brussels become permanent because of our choices of values.\nPrime Minister Viktor Orban downplayed the suggestion of leaving the EU, [saying in November 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-will-not-leave-eu-wants-reform-it-pm-orban-says-2021-11-14/),\nWe don't want to leave the EU at all, they can't get rid of us so easily [...] We want to keep our sovereignty and we don't want to find ourselves in a united states of Europe.\nWill Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1 2023, the government of Hungary announces a date to hold a national referendum on a proposal to leave the EU. The date of the referendum may occur at any time, but the announcement must occur before 2023. The referendum need not be legally binding, only be open to Hungarian voters with a proposal whose primary purpose is to leave the EU.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:32.611Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8900/us-gdp-growth-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.1% from 1950 to 2020, reaching a high of 8.7% in 1950 and a low of -3.4% in 2020.\nWhat will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as percent change of Real GDP in 2022 over the preceding year, according to the [US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:37.812Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will US inflation be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8901/us-inflation-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the core CPI rise by more than 3% between December 2021 and December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/inflation-above-3-in-2022/) \nIn November 2021 the US inflation rate [reached 6.8%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dGq), which was a 30-year high and far above the central bank's target rate. Megan Greene, chief economist at the Kroll Institute, expects this high inflation period will be \"transitory\", but [also added](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/explainer-why-us-inflation-is-so-high-and-when-it-may-ease/ar-AARGSEU),\"I think this could last another year easily\".\nWhat will US inflation be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve according to the annual inflation reported for 2022 by [the IMF](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:43.017Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 281,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8902/value-of-faamg-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG.”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). As of December 10, 2021 they make [about 21.2%](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500) of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a [percentage of the total S&P 500](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500) on 31 December 2022, at the time markets close. We will add all classes of shares listed. Currently this means that we will include both classes of Alphabet.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:48.266Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8903/bitcoin-price-on-dec-31-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a cryptocurrency that began operation in 2009. It has since seen [rapid growth and high volatility](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) (compared to other currencies and commodities), reaching prices as high as $68,600 in November 2021.\nWhat will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve according to the trading price of Bitcoin-USD as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD) at 00:00 UTC on December 31, 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:53.433Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of oil be for December 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8904/wti-oil-price-in-dec-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Oil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil), arguably one of, or the most important commodity across the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics.\nWhat will the price of oil be for December 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2022, according to the IMF. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted, and represents the price of oil per barrel (42 gallons or 159 liters).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:15:58.610Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 232,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8905/us-electric-vehicle-sales-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there were a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). 492,325 PEV vehicles have been sold in 2021 (reporting only data from January to October) according to [Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/es/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?\nThis question will resolve according to figures published by [Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/es/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:03.759Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8906/uscanada-total-box-office-gross-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of December 10, 2021, the total box office gross for the US and Canada in 2021 thus far is $3,631,587,300 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as The “total gross” (in USD) for 2022 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:09.547Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 145,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June, 30 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8907/global-commercial-flights-on-jun-30-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The daily number of commercial flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) in early 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and remains below pre-pandemic levels. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on June 30, 2021 was 88,250 as compared to 123,304 on June, 30 2019.\nHow many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June, 30 2022?\nThis question will resolve according to [Flightrader24](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics)’s 2020 7-day moving average for the number of commercial flights on June 30, 2022. The 7-day moving average will be used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:14.671Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 (in 2021 USD)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8909/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A genome consists of all of the DNA contained in a cell's nucleus. DNA is composed of four bases (abbreviated G, A, T, and C), with the biological information encoded within DNA determined by the order of those bases. [Sequencing a genome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whole_genome_sequencing) involves using various techniques to ascertain the order in which these bases are present in the DNA of an individual organism.\nThe first human genome sequencing was completed around 2001. Since then, technological advancements have enabled the cost of the procedure to drop rapidly. According to the National Human Genome Research Institute, sequencing a human genome cost over US$10 million in 2006, and only around US$562 in 2021. The cost data, graphs, and methods can be viewed [here](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data).\nWhat will be the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 (in 2021 USD)?\nThis question will resolve as the cost to sequence a whole human genome in the year 2026, accrding to the [US National Human Genome Research Institute](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost). To even out erratic estimates, this question resolve as the average of all values reported for 2026 (expected to be quarterly). This value will be indexed to 2021 USD using the [CPI](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL). To account for data revisions, this will resolve based on the latest report published by NHGRI by the end of 2027.\nIf NHGRI does not release any updates in 2027, this question may use any successor organization with similar data or methodology. If no such successor is available, the question may resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:19.802Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T18:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-30T19:30:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8910/massive-multiple-embryo-selection/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[In vitro fertilization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, and a resulting embryo is implanted into the woman’s or a surrogate patient’s uterus. Combining sperm with extracted ova results in multiple viable embryos. Embryo selection involves genetically sequencing these embryos to determine probabilities of the traits that they may produce. Most traits, such as low susceptibility to certain diseases or intelligence, are influenced by the interaction of many genes, i.e. they are polygenic, so a statistical analysis is performed on the genome to determine a score based on the probabilities of different traits of interest. The embryo with the most desirable score is then implanted. This is known as polygenic embryo selection.\nThis confers a limited advantage, however, since the number of ova that can be extracted in an IVF cycle is very low, and so the best of the embryos is unlikely to be significantly better than the average.\nThere is currently no technology that can yield larger numbers of ova simultaneously. If this were possible, one could perform polygenic selection on the large number of resulting embryos, where selection would yield large advantages: massive multiple embryo selection (MMES). The possible routes to MMES may look like, for example:\n1--New fertility drugs that induce the creation of larger numbers of ova in a cycle. \n2--Stem cell technology that would allow us to obtain a large number of the woman’s stem cells — a primordial kind of cell that can turn into any other kind of cell — and then induce them to turn into eggs. Large numbers of ova may be able to be obtained in this way. \nWhen will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?\nThis question will be resolved on the date of birth of the first human baby whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova. All of the eggs in this polygenic selection must be obtained from the same individual simultaneously (and not, for example, over multiple IVF cycles and preserved).\nReports in credible media sources will be sufficient for resolution.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:24.925Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T18:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2072-01-07T18:30:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8913/uk-hospital-admissions-peak-for-winter-21-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [key uncertainty](https://twitter.com/BarnardResearch/status/1469646873866772486) in the UK is what the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will be during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the [rapid spread](https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1470491762296827909) of the Omicron variant.\nAs of 4 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the UK is [811](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital). The all-time peak was [4234.6](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital) on 9 January 2021.\nWhat will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the [\"Patients admitted to hospital”](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital) graph on the UK Government's [\"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\"](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital) dashboard.\n15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8914/date-of-uk-hospital-admissions-peak/) related question on when this peak will be.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:30.065Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-25T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8914/date-of-uk-hospital-admissions-peak/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [key uncertainty](https://twitter.com/BarnardResearch/status/1469646873866772486) in the UK is when the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will occur during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the [rapid spread](https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1470491762296827909) of the Omicron variant.\nAs of 4 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the UK is [811](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital). The all-time peak was [4234.6](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital) on 9 January 2021.\nWhen will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?\nThis question resolves as the date of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the [\"Patients admitted to hospital”](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital) graph on the UK Government's [\"Healthcare in the United Kingdom\"](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital) dashboard.\n15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8913/uk-hospital-admissions-peak-for-winter-21-22/) related question on what the magnitude of this peak will be.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:35.250Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 176,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-25T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8915/usa-hospital-admissions-peak-for-winter-21-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [key uncertainty](https://apnews.com/article/ap-interview-coronavirus-omicron-rochelle-walensky-83c6607d1809a922ae0f892e22a5377f) in the USA is what the peak COVID burden on hospitals will be during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the [rapid spread](https://twitter.com/pavitrarc/status/1470447735585214464) of the Omicron variant.\nAs of 11 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the USA is [7442](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions). The all-time peak was [16497](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) on 9 January 2021.\nWhat will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the [\"Daily Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19”](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) graph on the U.S. CDC's [\"COVID-19 Data Tracker\"](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home) dashboard.\n15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8916/date-of-usa-hospital-admissions-peak/) related question on when this peak will be.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:16:40.387Z",
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- "title": "When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8916/date-of-usa-hospital-admissions-peak/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [key uncertainty](https://apnews.com/article/ap-interview-coronavirus-omicron-rochelle-walensky-83c6607d1809a922ae0f892e22a5377f) in the USA is when the peak COVID burden on hospitals will occur during the winter of 2021-2022 , especially in light of the [rapid spread](https://twitter.com/pavitrarc/status/1470447735585214464) of the Omicron variant.\nAs of 11 December 2021, the 7-day moving average for new COVID patients admitted to hospitals in the USA is [7442](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions). The all-time peak was [16497](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) on 9 January 2021.\nWhen will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?\nThis question resolves as the date of the peak in the 7-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions on the [\"Daily Admissions of Patients with Confirmed COVID-19”](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) graph on the U.S. CDC's [\"COVID-19 Data Tracker\"](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home) dashboard.\n15 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 15 March 2022 is the last day covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8915/usa-hospital-admissions-peak-for-winter-21-22/) related question on what this peak will be.\n",
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- "title": "What will be the vaccine effectiveness of 2 doses of AstraZeneca against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8921/2-az-doses-ve-against-omicron-hospitalization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, the first real-world estimates of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease caused by the Omicron variant were made.\nA South African team [estimated](https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v2-Sigal.pdf) vaccine efficacy of “22.5% (95% CI: 8.5%-40.7%) against symptomatic infection” for people with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.\nA UK team [estimated](https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+Omicron+variant+of+concern.pdf/f423c9f4-91cb-0274-c8c5-70e8fad50074) the following vaccine efficacies against symptomatic disease: \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of ChAdOx1 [AstraZeneca], there was no protective effect of vaccination against symptomatic disease with Omicron from 15 weeks after the second dose. \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of BNT162b2 [Pfizer], vaccine effectiveness was 88.0% (95%CI: 65.9 to 95.8%) 2-9 weeks after dose 2, dropping to 48.5% (95%CI: 24.3 to 65.0%) at 10-14 weeks post dose 2 and dropping further to between 34 and 37% from 15 weeks post dose 2. \n---Among those who received ChAdOx1 as the primary course, from 2 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster dose, vaccine effectiveness increased to 71.4% (95%CI: 41.8 to 86.0%). Vaccine effectiveness increased to 75.5% (95%CI: 56.1 to 86.3%) after the booster among those who had received BNT162b2 as the primary course. \nHowever, the extent of vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization caused by Omicron is not known at this point — though it is expected to be [substantially higher](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8801/omicron-what-we-know-what-to-expect--what-to-do/) than vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease.\nFor the AstraZeneca/ChAdOx1/Vaxzevria vaccine, a recent [pre-print](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.15.21263583v2.full.pdf) found vaccine effectiveness of 95.2% (95%CI: 94.6 to 95.6) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 2-9 weeks after the 2nd dose. The same study also found vaccine effectiveness of 91.4 (95%CI: 90.5 to 92.2) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 10-14 weeks after the 2nd dose.\nWhat will be the vaccine effectiveness of 2 doses of AstraZeneca against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?\nThis question asks about vaccine effectiveness of 2 doses of AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1) against hospitalization caused by Omicron. This will resolve as the median of the point estimates made in the first three published and peer-reviewed studies that meet the below minimum criteria:\n---Study subjects should have received 2 doses of ChAdOx1 and should not have received other SARS-CoV-2 doses at any point \n---Vaccine effectiveness should be determined as of at least 2 weeks after the 2nd dose and no later than 15 weeks after the 2nd dose \n---Study's sample size should be at least 200 subjects with 2 doses of ChAdOx1 \n---Study should give results on sequences or SGTF-status of hospitalized subjects to ensure that Omicron was the variant likely responsible for hospitalization \n---The comparison group should be unvaccinated individuals \n---The previous-infection status of both the 2-dose-vaccinated group and unvaccinated comparison group should be controlled for \n---If the variant responsible for hospitalization is not determined in the study, then Omicron should be >75% prevalent in the country where the study is carried out at the time of the study, according to [CoVariants](https://covariants.org/per-country) \n---If there are multiple sublineages (e.g.: BA.2, BA.1, or BA.1+R346K) of Omicron circulating in the study population at the time of the study, then we will consider the vaccine effectiveness against whatever sublineage of Omicron is most widely prevalent in the country of the study population \n",
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- "title": "What will be the vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses of AstraZeneca against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8922/3-az-doses-ve-against-omicron-hospitalization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, the first real-world estimates of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease caused by the Omicron variant were made.\nA South African team [estimated](https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v2-Sigal.pdf) vaccine efficacy of “22.5% (95% CI: 8.5%-40.7%) against symptomatic infection” for people with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.\nA UK team [estimated](https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+Omicron+variant+of+concern.pdf/f423c9f4-91cb-0274-c8c5-70e8fad50074) the following vaccine efficacies against symptomatic disease: \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of ChAdOx1 [AstraZeneca], there was no protective effect of vaccination against symptomatic disease with Omicron from 15 weeks after the second dose. \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of BNT162b2 [Pfizer], vaccine effectiveness was 88.0% (95%CI: 65.9 to 95.8%) 2-9 weeks after dose 2, dropping to 48.5% (95%CI: 24.3 to 65.0%) at 10-14 weeks post dose 2 and dropping further to between 34 and 37% from 15 weeks post dose 2. \n---Among those who received ChAdOx1 as the primary course, from 2 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster dose, vaccine effectiveness increased to 71.4% (95%CI: 41.8 to 86.0%). Vaccine effectiveness increased to 75.5% (95%CI: 56.1 to 86.3%) after the booster among those who had received BNT162b2 as the primary course. \nHowever, the extent of vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization caused by Omicron is not known at this point — though it is expected to be [substantially higher](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8801/omicron-what-we-know-what-to-expect--what-to-do/) than vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease.\nFor the AstraZeneca/ChAdOx1/Vaxzevria vaccine, a recent [pre-print](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.15.21263583v2.full.pdf) found vaccine effectiveness of 95.2% (95%CI: 94.6 to 95.6) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 2-9 weeks after the 2nd dose. The same study also found vaccine effectiveness of 91.4 (95%CI: 90.5 to 92.2) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 10-14 weeks after the 2nd dose. Vaccine effectiveness of 3 AZ doses against hospitalization caused by Delta is not known but is expected to be substantially higher given the [boosted immune response](https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902717-3).\nWhat will be the vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses of AstraZeneca against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?\nThis question asks about vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses of AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1) against hospitalization caused by Omicron. This will resolve as the median of the point estimates made in the first three published and peer-reviewed studies that meet the below minimum criteria:\n---Study subjects should have received 3 doses of ChAdOx1 and should not have received other SARS-CoV-2 doses at any point \n---Vaccine effectiveness should be determined as of at least 2 weeks after the 3nd dose and no later than 15 weeks after the 3rd dose \n---Study's sample size should be at least 200 subjects with 3 doses of ChAdOx1 \n---Study should give results on sequences or SGTF-status of hospitalized subjects to ensure that Omicron was the variant likely responsible for hospitalization \n---The comparison group should be unvaccinated individuals \n---The previous-infection status of both the 3-dose-vaccinated group and unvaccinated comparison group should be controlled for \n---If the variant responsible for hospitalization is not determined in the study, then Omicron should be >75% prevalent in the country where the study is carried out at the time of the study, according to [CoVariants](https://covariants.org/per-country) \n---If there are multiple sublineages (e.g.: BA.2, BA.1, or BA.1+R346K) of Omicron circulating in the study population at the time of the study, then we will consider the vaccine effectiveness against whatever sublineage of Omicron is most widely prevalent in the country of the study population \n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:11.309Z",
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- "title": "What will be the vaccine effectiveness of 2 doses of Pfizer against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8923/2-dose-pfizer-ve-vs-omicron-hospitalization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, the first real-world estimates of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease caused by the Omicron variant were made.\nA South African team [estimated](https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v2-Sigal.pdf) vaccine efficacy of “22.5% (95% CI: 8.5%-40.7%) against symptomatic infection” for people with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.\nA UK team [estimated](https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+Omicron+variant+of+concern.pdf/f423c9f4-91cb-0274-c8c5-70e8fad50074) the following vaccine efficacies against symptomatic disease: \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of ChAdOx1 [AstraZeneca], there was no protective effect of vaccination against symptomatic disease with Omicron from 15 weeks after the second dose. \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of BNT162b2 [Pfizer], vaccine effectiveness was 88.0% (95%CI: 65.9 to 95.8%) 2-9 weeks after dose 2, dropping to 48.5% (95%CI: 24.3 to 65.0%) at 10-14 weeks post dose 2 and dropping further to between 34 and 37% from 15 weeks post dose 2. \n---Among those who received ChAdOx1 as the primary course, from 2 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster dose, vaccine effectiveness increased to 71.4% (95%CI: 41.8 to 86.0%). Vaccine effectiveness increased to 75.5% (95%CI: 56.1 to 86.3%) after the booster among those who had received BNT162b2 as the primary course. \nHowever, the extent of vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization caused by Omicron is not known at this point — though it is expected to be [substantially higher](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8801/omicron-what-we-know-what-to-expect--what-to-do/) than vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease. \nFor the Pfizer/BNT162b2/Comirnaty vaccine, a recent [pre-print](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.15.21263583v2.full.pdf) found vaccine effectiveness of 98.4 (95%CI: 97.9 to 98.8) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 2-9 weeks after the 2nd dose. The same study also found vaccine effectiveness of 96.5 (95%CI: 95.9 to 97.1) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 10-14 weeks after the 2nd dose.\nWhat will be the vaccine effectiveness of 2 doses of Pfizer against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?\nThis question asks about vaccine effectiveness of 2 doses of Pfizer (BNT162b2) against hospitalization caused by Omicron. This will resolve as the median of the point estimates made in the first three published and peer-reviewed studies that meet the below minimum criteria:\n---Study subjects should have received 2 doses of BNT162b2 and should not have received other SARS-CoV-2 doses at any point \n---Vaccine effectiveness should be determined as of at least 2 weeks after the 2nd dose and no later than 15 weeks after the 2nd dose \n---Study's sample size should be at least 200 subjects with 2 doses of BNT162b2 \n---Study should give results on sequences or SGTF-status of hospitalized subjects to ensure that Omicron was the variant likely responsible for hospitalization \n---The comparison group should be unvaccinated individuals \n---The previous-infection status of both the 2-dose-vaccinated group and unvaccinated comparison group should be controlled for \n---If the variant responsible for hospitalization is not determined in the study, then Omicron should be >75% prevalent in the country where the study is carried out at the time of the study, according to [CoVariants](https://covariants.org/per-country) \n---If there are multiple sublineages (e.g.: BA.2, BA.1, or BA.1+R346K) of Omicron circulating in the study population at the time of the study, then we will consider the vaccine effectiveness against whatever sublineage of Omicron is most widely prevalent in the country of the study population \n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:16.410Z",
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- "title": "What will be the vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses of Pfizer against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8925/3-dose-pfizer-ve-vs-omicron-hospitalization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, the first real-world estimates of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease caused by the Omicron variant were made.\nA South African team [estimated](https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v2-Sigal.pdf) vaccine efficacy of “22.5% (95% CI: 8.5%-40.7%) against symptomatic infection” for people with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.\nA UK team [estimated](https://khub.net/documents/135939561/430986542/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+Omicron+variant+of+concern.pdf/f423c9f4-91cb-0274-c8c5-70e8fad50074) the following vaccine efficacies against symptomatic disease: \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of ChAdOx1 [AstraZeneca], there was no protective effect of vaccination against symptomatic disease with Omicron from 15 weeks after the second dose. \n---Among those who had received 2 doses of BNT162b2 [Pfizer], vaccine effectiveness was 88.0% (95%CI: 65.9 to 95.8%) 2-9 weeks after dose 2, dropping to 48.5% (95%CI: 24.3 to 65.0%) at 10-14 weeks post dose 2 and dropping further to between 34 and 37% from 15 weeks post dose 2. \n---Among those who received ChAdOx1 as the primary course, from 2 weeks after a BNT162b2 booster dose, vaccine effectiveness increased to 71.4% (95%CI: 41.8 to 86.0%). Vaccine effectiveness increased to 75.5% (95%CI: 56.1 to 86.3%) after the booster among those who had received BNT162b2 as the primary course. \nHowever, the extent of vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization caused by Omicron is not known at this point — though it is expected to be [substantially higher](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8801/omicron-what-we-know-what-to-expect--what-to-do/) than vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection/disease.\nFor the Pfizer/BNT162b2/Comirnaty vaccine, a recent [pre-print](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.15.21263583v2.full.pdf) found vaccine effectiveness of 98.4 (95%CI: 97.9 to 98.8) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 2-9 weeks after the 2nd dose. The same study also found vaccine effectiveness of 96.5 (95%CI: 95.9 to 97.1) against hospitalization caused by Delta, 10-14 weeks after the 2nd dose. Vaccine effectiveness of 3 Pfizer doses against hospitalization caused by Delta is at least [98%](https://twitter.com/juan_cambeiro/status/1451244315053789188).\nWhat will be the vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses of Pfizer against hospitalization caused by Omicron according to the median of the first 3 published peer-reviewed studies?\nThis question asks about vaccine effectiveness of 3 doses of Pfizer (BNT162b2) against hospitalization caused by Omicron. This will resolve as the median of the point estimates made in the first three published and peer-reviewed studies that meet the below minimum criteria:\n---Study subjects should have received 3 doses of BNT162b2 and should not have received other SARS-CoV-2 doses at any point \n---Vaccine effectiveness should be determined as of at least 2 weeks after the 3nd dose and no later than 15 weeks after the 3rd dose \n---Study's sample size should be at least 200 subjects with 3 doses of BNT162b2 \n---Study should give results on sequences or SGTF-status of hospitalized subjects to ensure that Omicron was the variant likely responsible for hospitalization \n---The comparison group should be unvaccinated individuals \n---The previous-infection status of both the 3-dose-vaccinated group and unvaccinated comparison group should be controlled for \n---If the variant responsible for hospitalization is not determined in the study, then Omicron should be >75% prevalent in the country where the study is carried out at the time of the study, according to [CoVariants](https://covariants.org/per-country) \n---If there are multiple sublineages (e.g.: BA.2, BA.1, or BA.1+R346K) of Omicron circulating in the study population at the time of the study, then we will consider the vaccine effectiveness against whatever sublineage of Omicron is most widely prevalent in the country of the study population \n",
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- "title": "What percentage of the US workforce will be musicians or writers in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8929/-us-workforce-writersmusicians-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "AI and neural networks have made impressive improvements in the last decade in numerous fields, such as language models like [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) writing [original text](https://medium.com/swlh/i-wrote-a-book-with-gpt-3-ai-in-24-hours-and-got-it-published-93cf3c96f120), models generating [visual art](https://twitter.com/WOMBO) and [illustrations](https://thisanimedoesnotexist.ai/), and some early results in music [production](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1NV6CUJl18) and [composition](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcGYEXJqun8). Some speculate that this trend of improving AI capabilities could lead to [technological unemployment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment), where AI/machines can perform any task better or more cheaply than a human worker could.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about AI advancemetnts in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nThe worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics [reported that in 2020](https://www.bls.gov/emp/), 0.13% of the US workforce are musicians, and 0.20% are writers and editors. BLS has projected (on December 2021) those same workforce percentages for 2030.\nWhat percentage of the US workforce will be musicians or writers in 2050?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of the total US workforce which are employed as musicians, writers, and other related jobs in 2050, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/industry-occupation-matrix-occupation.htm). For a full definition of jobs included, see the fine-print below.\nThese categories are identified by their 2020 National Employment Matrix codes, 27-3040 for writers and editors, and 27-2040 for musicians. These classifications include:\nDescription Code \nEditors\n27-3041\nTechnical writers\n27-3042\nWriters and authors\n27-3043\nMusic directors and composers\n27-2041\nMusicians and singers\n27-2042\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:26.688Z",
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- "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8931/carlsen-plays-next-chess-world-championship/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Magnus Carlsen, the current and five-time [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), has recently [hinted](https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-hints-he-s-played-last-world-championship-match) that the 2021 World Chess Championship may have been the final time he will defend his title against a challenger.\nWill Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?\nThis question resolves positively if Carlsen plays and finishes at least one game in the next World Chess Championship match (so the first one after the championship held in 2021). It resolves negatively if the championship is held but Carlsen is not one of the players, and it resolves ambiguously if the championship is not held until the resolution date of the question.\n",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:31.847Z",
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- "title": "What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8936/-us-workforce-as-it-specialists-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "AI and neural networks have made impressive improvements in the last decade in numerous fields, such as language models like [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) writing [original text](https://old.reddit.com/r/SubSimulatorGPT2/). Early experiments showed GPT-2 and GPT-3 being capable of writing simple code, without being trained on this task, which led to an official partnership with Github to develop [Github Copilot](https://copilot.github.com/). Some speculate that this trend of improving AI capabilities could lead to [technological unemployment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment), where AI/machines can perform any task better or more cheaply than a human worker could.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about AI capabilities in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nWhite-collar workers, like tax attorneys, lawyers, and programmers, will suffer the most from this automation, whereas plumbers and yard workers will still be unaffected.\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics [reported that in 2020](https://www.bls.gov/emp/), 3.40% of the workforce are in a computer specialist role, and projected (in December 2021) that this percentage would be 3.60% in 2030.\nWhat percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of the total US workforce which are employed as software developers, network administrators, and systems analysts, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/industry-occupation-matrix-occupation.htm). For a full definition of jobs included, see the fine-print below.\nThis category is identified by its 2020 National Employment Matrix code 15-1200, which encompases many computer occupations:\nDescription Code \nComputer systems analysts\n15-1211\nInformation security analysts\n15-1212\nComputer and information research scientists\n15-1221\nComputer network support specialists\n15-1231\nComputer user support specialists\n15-1232\nComputer network architects\n15-1241\nNetwork and computer systems administrators\n15-1244\nDatabase administrators and architects\n15-1245\nComputer programmers\n15-1251\nSoftware developers and software quality assurance analysts and testers\n15-1256\nWeb developers and digital interface designers\n15-1257\nComputer occupations, all other\n15-1299\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:37.025Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T17:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US workforce will be in building maintenance or construction trades in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8937/-us-workforce-in-construction-trades-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "AI and neural networks have made impressive improvements in the last decade in numerous fields, such as language models like [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) writing [original text](https://old.reddit.com/r/SubSimulatorGPT2/), [AlphaFold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaFold) predicting protein structures, or [AlphaZero](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaZero) learning superhuman play in games like go, chess, and shogi. Some speculate that this trend of improving AI capabilities could lead to [technological unemployment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment), where AI/machines can perform any task better or more cheaply than a human worker could.\nSome automation has been seen in industrial contexts, for example in [automated manufacturing](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-yne8xTNM0), where highly specialized machines perform very narrow tasks very precisely or rapidly. [Multi-purpose robots](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF4DML7FIWk), however, are still far from having the broad capabilities of humans, and their performance declines in dynamic physical environments.\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\nWhite-collar workers, like tax attorneys, lawyers, and programmers, will suffer the most from this automation, whereas plumbers and yard workers will still be unaffected.\nThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics [reported that in 2020](https://www.bls.gov/emp/), 3.49% of the workforce is in a construction trade, and 3.37% is in building and grounds cleaning and maintenance. BLS projected (in December 2021) that these percentages would be 3.42% and 3.36% (respectively) in 2030.\nWhat percentage of the US workforce will be in building maintenance or construction trades in 2050?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of the total US workforce which are employed in \"building and grounds cleaning and maintenance\" or \"construction trades\" according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/industry-occupation-matrix-occupation.htm). For a full definition of jobs included, see the fine-print below.\nThese categories are identified by their 2020 National Employment Matrix codes 37-0000 and 47-2000, which encompass many occupations:\nDescription Code \nFirst-line supervisors of housekeeping and janitorial workers\n37-1011\nFirst-line supervisors of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers\n37-1012\nJanitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners\n37-2011\nMaids and housekeeping cleaners\n37-2012\nBuilding cleaning workers, all other\n37-2019\nPest control workers\n37-2021\nLandscaping and groundskeeping workers\n37-3011\nPesticide handlers, sprayers, and applicators, vegetation\n37-3012\nTree trimmers and pruners\n37-3013\nGrounds maintenance workers, all other\n37-3019\n--\n--\nBoilermakers\n47-2011\nBrickmasons and blockmasons\n47-2021\nStonemasons\n47-2022\nCarpenters\n47-2031\nCarpet installers\n47-2041\nFloor layers, except carpet, wood, and hard tiles\n47-2042\nFloor sanders and finishers\n47-2043\nTile and stone setters\n47-2044\nCement masons and concrete finishers\n47-2051\nTerrazzo workers and finishers\n47-2053\nConstruction laborers\n47-2061\nPaving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators\n47-2071\nPile driver operators\n47-2072\nOperating engineers and other construction equipment operators\n47-2073\nDrywall and ceiling tile installers\n47-2081\nTapers\n47-2082\nElectricians\n47-2111\nGlaziers\n47-2121\nInsulation workers, floor, ceiling, and wall\n47-2131\nInsulation workers, mechanical\n47-2132\nPainters, construction and maintenance\n47-2141\nPaperhangers\n47-2142\nPipelayers\n47-2151\nPlumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters\n47-2152\nPlasterers and stucco masons\n47-2161\nReinforcing iron and rebar workers\n47-2171\nRoofers\n47-2181\nSheet metal workers\n47-2211\nStructural iron and steel workers\n47-2221\nSolar photovoltaic installers\n47-2231\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:42.161Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8944/boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-june-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nAs of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to [reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-joined-no-10-party-during-may-2020-lockdown-say-sources). His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and [now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary)\nOn December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, [which the party had held for nearly 200 years.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102)\nConservative MPs have [reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/23/letters-no-confidence-boris-johnson-have-submitted-claim-tory/) indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party.\nWill Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on 1 June 2022, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:17:58.586Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 832,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8945/google-blocks-3rd-party-cookies-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Cookies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie) are a fundamental web technology which allows web servers to identify individual users, such as showing an email inbox only to an authorized user. However, this same technology has enabled online advertisers to build profiles of user behavior and deliver target advertisements, which privacy advocates like the [Electronic Frontier Foundation](https://www.eff.org/pages/privacy-badger) object to.\nIn June 2021, [Google planned](https://blog.google/products/chrome/updated-timeline-privacy-sandbox-milestones/) to replace third party cookies with Google Analytics’ own system: [Federated Learning of Cohorts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federated_Learning_of_Cohorts) (FLoC). This will allow advertisers to target users based on behaviour, but will prevent them from tracking users across sites.\nWill Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively if Google releases an updated version of chrome which blocks third-party cookies by default before January 1, 2024. This version must be the on the main branch, not a beta version or [chromium](https://www.chromium.org/) version. Resolution may come from credible media reports.\nFor this question, “Third party cookie” refers to a cookie set by javascript code that does not belong to the site the user is visiting. This question will resolve if third-party cookies are blocked by default on Chrome; it is irrelevant if Google implements FLoC or any other advertising mechanism by 2024.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:03.741Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8947/google-uses-explainable-ads-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.\nWill Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?\nThis question will resolve positively if Google implements an explanation feature for ads in their Google Ads platform before January 1, 2026. Google must have implemented this feature across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats (such as only in Google Search) or as an A/B test. Google announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for advertisement selection which indicates decisive charactaristics of the advertiser or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Google may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:08.867Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the EU adopt legally binding regulations protecting the individual's right to explanation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8948/date-eu-enforces-right-to-explanation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which, in Recital 71, notes that data subjects have a [right to explanation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_explanation). The [Equal Credit Opportunity Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Credit_Opportunity_Act) (ECOA) in the US mentions a similar right, as does the Loi pour une République numérique (loi numérique) in France. However, unlike the ECOA and loi numérique, the GDPR’s right to explanation is [not legally binding](https://iapp.org/news/a/is-there-a-right-to-explanation-for-machine-learning-in-the-gdpr/).\nWhen will the EU adopt legally binding regulations protecting the individual's right to explanation?\nThis will resolve on the date that the European Union passes a law which protects the individual's general right to explanation, requiring algorithms to explain to users which data was relevant in algorithmic decisions. This law need not be in the same form described in Recital 71 of GDPR. This law must apply to automated decisions generally within the EU, not targeted only in narrow purposes or domains (e.g. ECOA only applies to adverse credit decisions).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:13.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US adopt national general-purpose data protection regulations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8949/date-us-passes-user-data-protection-laws/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which outlines the rights of data subjects. In the state of California, the [California Consumer Privacy Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Consumer_Privacy_Act) (CPPA) guarantees similar rights surrounding personal data. However, the US Federal Government has no similar legislation.\nWhen will the US adopt national general-purpose data protection regulations?\nThis question will resolve on the date that federal legislation is passed in the US which guarantees the individual's [right of access](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_of_access_to_personal_data), that is the right of a data subject to access personal data collected on them and to know how that data is collected. Other data protection laws already exist, such as the [Fair Credit Reporting Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_Credit_Reporting_Act) which establishes the individual's rights to data on credit reporting; this question pertains to a law protecting the right of access for data collected in general terms, which is applicable to at least 66% of the US population. The legislation need not consider the right to be forgotten or the right to object. Official announcements from the US government or credible media reports may suffice as a source.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:19.118Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8950/japan-international-travel-reopens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Japan currently does not allow entry into the country by non-residents. Some business travel was briefly allowed in Fall 2021, but then shut back down following the emergence of the Omnicron variant.\nThe government has made no specific statements about when the country might open up for regular tourist visas.\n[https://www.japan.travel/en/coronavirus/](https://www.japan.travel/en/coronavirus/)\nWhen will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n--- \nJapan no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Japan, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Japan has visa-free travel arrangements.\n--- \nJapan no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:24.269Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-07T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T08:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest price realized by a Christie’s auction for a single NFT in 2030 (in 2021 USD)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8953/highest-bid-on-a-christies-nft-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold for, in 2020 USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/) \nOne of the most notable, recent highlights in the cryptocurrency industry was the [Christie’s auction of a non-fungible token](https://onlineonly.christies.com/s/beeple-first-5000-days/beeple-b-1981-1/112924) (NFT). It represented a digital artwork by Beeple, called EVERYDAYS: THE FIRST 5000 DAYS, and realized $69,346,250 on March 11, 2021. As of December 2021, a non-exhaustive list of the highest-yielding, closed, NFT auctions is as follows:\n---EVERYDAYS: THE FIRST 5000 DAYS by Beeple (Christie’s sale for $69,346,250) \n---HUMAN ONE by Beeple (Christie’s sale for $28,985,000) \n---Bored Ape Yacht Club #8746 by YUGA LABS (Christie’s sale for HKD 9,610,000) \n---The Fungible by Pak (Sotheby’s sale for $16,825,999) \n---REPLICATOR by Mad Dog Jones (Phillip’s sale for $4,144,000) \n---Quantum by Kevin McCoy (Sotheby’s sale for $1,472,000) \nIn these cases, the NFT is a digital record that tracks verifiable ownership of the digital artwork.\nWhat will be the highest price realized by a Christie’s auction for a single NFT in 2030 (in 2021 USD)?\nThis question will resolve as the highest price paid ([inflation-adjusted to 2021 USD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL)) for one [Non-Fungible Token](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFT) auctioned by [Christie's](https://www.christies.com/) in the year 2030. A \"Non-Fungible Token\" for the purposes of this question will include any unique token which can be exchanged and recorded on a [cryptographic blockchain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain) (that is, not just restricted to [ERC-721](http://erc721.org/) or [Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum)-based NFT systems). Resolution may come from official announcements by Art Basel, credible media reports, or public blockchain data.\nIn the case where no NFTs are auctioned by Christie’s in 2030, or if NFTs are auctioned but do not close, this question will resolve as <$500k USD. If payment is made in currency other than USD, the value will be converted to USD according to public exchange rates at the time of sale (then [inflation-adjusted to 2021 USD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL)). If Christie's no longer auctions art or high-value products of any kind, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that this question does not measure [the most expensive NFT sold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/) by 2030, but the most expensive NFT sold by Christie's in only the year 2030.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:29.405Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8959/chinese-fertility-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China repealed its [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in 2015. It now allows people to have up to [three children](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html). Some commenters [have predicted](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/coming-demographic-collapse-china-180960) that China will \"demographically collapse\". In an attempt to increase fertility and to avert [the problems associated with an aging population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China), China [is encouraging](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/china-editorial-says-communist-party-members-must-have-three-children) members of the CPC to have three children. China had a [total fertility rate (TFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of [only](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-society-census-fertility-idUSL4N2MY140) 1.3 in 2020, well below the replacement level. Here we ask if these attempts will succeed. Richard Hanania [called](https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1478826248071618563) Chinese TFR the \"world's most important metric in the next 20 years\".\nWhat will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?\nResolves as whatever the World Bank [reports](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN) as China's \"total birth per woman\" for the year 2031.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:39.930Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-10T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-05-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-08-08T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a single reusable rocket stage be used for the 25th time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8964/reusable-rocket-stage-achieving-25-uses/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In an effort to drive launch prices down, [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) and other \"new space\" launch providers have been developing and flying [reusable launcher stages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reusable_launch_system). After an initial testing period, SpaceX is currently [routinely recovering, refurbishing, and reusing](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/space_portal_edgar_zapata.pdf) Falcon booster stages. Presently, a single booster has been [already used 10 times](https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05/spacex-hits-major-reuse-milestone-with-rockets-10th-flight/), and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has stated that eventually even [100+ reuses would be possible](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1296158590646939649) for a single booster. \nWhen will a single reusable rocket stage be used for the 25th time?\nThis question will resolve on the date of successful recovery of a single booster or any other rocket stage after its 25th use, by any launch provider (not only SpaceX). Statements by the launch provider, national space agencies, or credible media reports will suffice as a source.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:45.069Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8965/launch-by-single-stage-to-orbit-vehicle/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In an effort to drive launch prices down, [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) and other \"new space\" launch providers have been developing and flying multi-stage rockets, aiming towards [full reusability of the all stages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reusable_launch_system). \nAnother concept for reusable launchers are [single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-stage-to-orbit). Such vehicles would provide launch cost saving by eliminating the need for different stages, be they reusable or not. However, SSTOs must try to squeeze out the necessary engine performance, while drastically reducing structural weight, and still be able to reliably deliver a meaningful payload in orbit. Several [reusable SSTO concepts](https://scholar.afit.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4552&context=etd) have been proposed. \nWhen will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?\nThis question will resolve on the date that a [single-stage-to-orbit vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-stage-to-orbit) successfully places a payload in orbit ([above 100km in altitude](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)), and returns in a condition to be able to be reused. Statements by the Launch provider, National Space Agencies, and credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\nThe payload should be a minimum of 1 kg, and should be operational after being deployed in orbit. If it is determined that the payload has been damaged due to the fault of the SSTO vehicle, that launch will not qualify to resolve; if the payload is inoperational due to no fault of the SSTO vehicle, this will resolve the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:50.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Arianespace's revenue (2021 EUR) in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8966/arianespace-revenue-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "New space companies like [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacex) have been [driving launch prices down](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competition) through a combination of technical (launcher reusability) and organizational (lean production, flat organization, etc.) effects.\nEstablished launch providers are struggling to adapt. For example, Europe's launch provider, [Arianespace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arianespace) has seen its position in the commercial launch market [undermined by SpaceX](https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/07/as-the-spacex-steamroller-surges-european-rocket-industry-vows-to-resist/). The company is attempting to adapt by developing the [6th version of its Ariane rocket line](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Launch_vehicles/Ariane_6), developing [its own capabilities for reusability](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Engineering_Technology/ESA_plans_demonstration_of_a_reusable_rocket_stage), and [adapting its management structure](https://www.ariane.group/en/news/airbus-saran-launchers-becomes-74-percent-shareholder-arianespace/). It is however uncertain if and how it could reclaim its position as market leader. Considering its importance as Europe's independent provider of access to space, this could have significant consequences. Arianespace reported a revenue of [1.25 Billion euros in 2021](https://www.arianespace.com/press-release/arianespace-consolidates-leadership-in-commercial-launch-market-with-15-successful-ariane-soyuz-and-vega-launches-in-2021-and-revenue-growth-of-30-while-gearing-up-for-another-busy-year/).\nWhat will be Arianespace's revenue (2021 EUR) in 2025?\nThis question will resolve as Arianespace's annual revenue for 2025 ([in 2021 inflation-adjusted EUR](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPHPTT01EZM661N)), according to [Ariannespace](https://www.arianespace.com/press-release/arianespace-consolidates-leadership-in-commercial-launch-market-with-15-successful-ariane-soyuz-and-vega-launches-in-2021-and-revenue-growth-of-30-while-gearing-up-for-another-busy-year/). If Arianespace does not publish this data, estimates by credible media reports may be used.\nIf no data is available, or if Arianespace is no longer in business, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:18:55.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\nOn [elections scheduled for November 8, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections), US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.\nDemocratic President Joe Biden [said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/12/15/biden_to_republicans_get_ready_youre_in_for_a_problem_were_going_to_win_in_2022.html),\nI just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it. \nRepublican Senator Rick Scott [said to Fox Business on the same day](https://www.deseret.com/2021/11/19/22787494/republicans-chances-to-take-back-congress-in-2022-are-looking-good-utah-redistricting-gop),\nWe’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”\nGeneric congressional ballot data shows [Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/) lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden currently has an [-8 percentage point net approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/).\nFiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported [a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-flurry-of-democratic-departures-means-for-the-2022-house-race/), arguing this is a signal of good prospects of a Republican victory.\nWill Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?\nThis question will resolve positively if, following the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), over 50% of House and Senate congresspeople are members of the Republican party. If Democrats win either the House or the Senate, or both, this question will resolve negatively.\nIndependents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:19:16.130Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8977/roe-v-wade-overturned-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/) \nAbortion is a famously controversial subject in the US, with adamant proponents for both sides arguing for abortion to be legal or illegal in all or nearly all circumstances. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that [55-65% of Americans fall in the middle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/), favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 [more Americans support Roe v Wade](https://news.gallup.com/poll/350804/americans-opposed-overturning-roe-wade.aspx) than wish to overturn it.\nIn October 2021, [Amy Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) was appointed to the US Supreme Court, making 6 of the 9 sitting justices appointed by a Republican president. Many political pundits anticipated that this majority would result in overturning or altering [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade). In Texas, [a law effectively banning abortions](https://web.archive.org/web/20211001005809/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/health/texas-abortion-law-facts.html) occurring after the 6th week of pregnancy was brought before the court, but the case was [dismissed on procedural grounds](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texass-abortion-law-is-unprecedented-but-the-supreme-court-isnt-treating-it-that-way/). The court also heard arguments in [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), pertaining to a ban in Mississippi on abortions occurring after 15 weeks of pregnancy (fetal viability, the previous standard under Casey, is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy). Dobbs is anticipated to be decided by June of 2022.\nWill the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if, anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the [Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point [before the date of fetal viability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey). This decision may be rendered in [Dobbs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), a case concerning [the Texas Heartbeat Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Heartbeat_Act), or in another case.\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as revocation of medical or professional licenses, or eg. allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:19:42.895Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [next Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Philippine_presidential_election) in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President [Rodrigo Duterte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Duterte) is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution.\nOpinion polling on December 11, 2021 found [Bongbong Marcos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bongbong_Marcos) with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate [Leni Robredo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leni_Robredo) (current Vice President) with 16.2%.\nAs of December 22, 2021, [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022) gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site [BetOnline](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/2022-philippine-presidential-election) gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win.\nWill Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Bongbong Marcos wins the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, according to official declarations by the Philippine government, or credible media reports.\nIf Marcos withdraws his candidacy or is otherwise not a candidate at the time polls open, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will be determined by who officially wins the election, regardless of whether the candidate is then inaugurated or performs the duties of the presidency.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:19:58.344Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-08T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8981/chinese-gdp-growth-from-q2-q4-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Chinese Economy](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI) has grown remarkably fast in recent decades, with 10-20% annual growth in GDP. Q1 of 2020 marked the one exception where GDP declined by 6% compared to Q1 2019, due to China's heavy lockdowns during the early [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic).\nWill China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if China's GDP in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2022 are greater than the previous quarter, according to the [OECD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNGDPNQDSMEI).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:03.583Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8982/belfast-2021-wins-best-picture-oscar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Belfast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast_%28film%29) (2021) is a comedy-drama movie directed by [Kenneth Branagh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Branagh), which tells a coming-of-age story taking place during [The Troubles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles) in Northern Ireland. It recieved 7 nominations at the [Golden Globe Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_Golden_Globe_Awards) and 11 nominations at the [Critics' Choice Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/27th_Critics%27_Choice_Awards). [RottenTomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/belfast) gave the film an 86% rating based on 231 selected reviewers and [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/belfast) gave it a 77 / 100 from 45 aggregated critics.\nThe [94th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards) (known as \"The Oscars\") is scheduled to be held on March 27, 2022, and will award films released between March 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Nominations are scheduled to be announced February 8, 2022.\nWill Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?\nThis question will resolve positively if Belfast wins the Best Picture award at the [2022 Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards), and will resolve negatively otherwise. In the case that Belfast is not nominated for the Best Picture category, this question will retroactively close and resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:08.724Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-26T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-28T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8984/norway-wins-most-golds-in-2022-olympics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics) are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omicron_variant) and [diplomatic boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics).\nIn the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks.\nYear Gold Ranking Silver Ranking Bronze Ranking Total Medal Ranking \n2018\n1 (tied)\n1\n1\n1\n2014\n1 (tied)\n8\n1 (tied)\n3\n2010\n4\n3\n4\n4\n2006\n13\n4\n1\n6\n2002\n1\n3\n4\n3\nA record [109 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Sports) will be held in 15 disciplines.\nWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?\nThis question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics).\nIn the event that 2 or more countries are tied for the most Gold medals, the tie will be broken by whoever wins the most Silver medals. If those are also tied, the tie will be broken by Bronze medals. If they remain tied, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIn the case that the Winter Olympics are cancelled or postponed, the \"2022 Winter Olympics\" will be considered to be the major winter sporting event recognized by the [International Olympic Comittee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympic_Committee) held during the years 2022 to 2025, inclusive. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:19.102Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-03T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-21T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8989/1-nations-with-10-covid-vaccine-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9031/low-income-countries-vaccinated-by-eoy-2022/) \nAs the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) is spreading globally, [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=High+income~Upper+middle+income~Lower+middle+income~Low+income~OWID_WRL) shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found [here](https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/scripts/input/wb/income_groups.csv).\n\"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” [said Lawrence Gostin](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed and global vaccine distribution, [set an initial target](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.\n\"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries,\" said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, [estimated in November 2021](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1052078529/why-low-income-countries-are-so-short-on-covid-vaccines-hint-its-not-boosters) that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022.\nWill any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if on December 31, 2022, any nation reports that less than 10% of their population has recieved at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations#what-share-of-the-population-has-received-at-least-one-dose-of-the-covid-19-vaccine). Nations which do not have any data (such as North Korea) may be excluded unless an alternative credible source is available.\nResolution may be delayed for 2 months to account for delays in reporting data.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:45.232Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8991/2022-warmer-than-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/) \n---[Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/) \n8 years between 2010 to 2019 have been in [the top 10 warmest years on record](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013) according to NOAA's 2020 report. The remaining 2 years in the top 10 were 2020 and 2005. This is one indicator of global [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change) caused by humans.\n[NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) analysis of global surface temperatures show an average increase of 0.032C per year from 2001 - 2020, and an avarage increase of 0.02C from 1971 - 2020. 13 out of 20 years between 2001 - 2020 were warmer than their preceeding year.\nWill 2022 be warmer than 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if global surface temperatures in 2022 are warmer than in 2021, according to [NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event of a statistical tie, another credible source such as [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp) may be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:50.427Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8992/us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Gain of Function research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain-of-function_research) (GoF) is a form of experimentation where medical researchers modify viruses and study ways in which they might become more transmissible or deadly. In [October 2014](https://www.nature.com/articles/514411a), The US implemented a ban on funding Gof research, which was later [lifted in December 2017](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08837-7).\nVox Journalist Kelsey Piper in May 2020 [investigated several incidents](https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21243148/why-some-labs-work-on-making-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop) of mishandling virus samples and laboratory safety violations. In reviewing the arguments for and against GoF research, Piper found the risks of such research leading to a deadly outbreak to be significant.\nIn a related Metaculus question [\"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/), The median prediction on December 24, 2021 is at 40%.\nWill the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if the US government announces a ban on federally funding gain-of-function research, effective anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023. This ban may persist for any length of time, so long as it effectively begins during this period. Official government statements or Credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:20:55.602Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8994/jaedon-whyte-on-us-imo-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://www.imo-official.org/) is the premier math competition for high school competitions. The [United States](https://www.imo-official.org/country_info.aspx?code=USA) [has participated](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA) in the IMO 47 times. Recently, the teams have been largely Asian American. As of yet no Black American has represented the USA at the IMO.\nJaedon Whyte [won the USA Mathematical Olympiad in 2021](https://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/pdf/AMC/usamo/2021/2021%20USAMO%20Winners.pdf) and [got a silver medal at the Romanian Masters in Mathematics](https://rmms.lbi.ro/rmm2021/index.php?id=results_math). He will graduate from [Archimedean Upper Conservatory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedean_Upper_Conservatory), a public charter high school, [in 2022.](https://ideamath.education/landing/staff)\nWill Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if by the resolve date if Jaedon Whyte qualifies for the USA IMO team, as reported by [the official IMO website.](http://imo-official.org/)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:00.860Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8995/republican-share-of-2024-hispaniclatino-vote/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 2020 election, [37 percent](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotfu1a/wh2020_public_release_crosstabs.xlsx?dl=0) of Latinos who voted for Democrats or Republicans voted for the Republicans. This represented an increase from 29 percent in 2016 and 30 percent in 2012. In December 2021, a [poll](https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1473152045884583936) showed that Latinos had a lower approval rating of President Biden than Whites. [Multiple](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/oct/5/editorial-democrats-conservative-hispanic-problem/) [commentators](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/defund-the-police-cost-democrats-hispanic-and-black-votes/) have [discussed](https://www.npr.org/2021/07/11/1014967344/latino-voters-are-leaving-the-democratic-party) this shift of Latinos toward the Republican Party in 2020.\nWhat percentage of Hispanic voters will vote Republican in 2024?\nThis question will resolve as the value R/(D+R) where D is the total number of votes Latinos cast for the Democatic candidate in the 2024 Presidential election and R is the number of votes Latinos cast for the Republican candidate, as reported by [Catalist.](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotfu1a/wh2020_public_release_crosstabs.xlsx?dl=0)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:06.138Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8997/new-variant-of-concern-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The World Health Organization publishes a list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) (VoC), which is currently WHO's most serious classification of SARS-Cov-2 variants. On November 26, 2021, WHO added [Omicron](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron) to this classification, bringing the total number of VoCs to 5.\nWill WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if anytime between December 24, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the World Health Organization adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/). This may include a reclassification of any variant or descendent of a variant currently known in December 24, 2021 as a Variant of Interest or Variant Under Monitoring. Classifications by other sources or organizations such as the [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/) or [ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) are irrelevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:11.291Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8998/1-us-state-legalizes-a-psychedelic-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Oregon become the [first state to decriminalize psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) in November 2020 via a ballot measure. Psilocybin (also known as \"mushrooms\") is also decriminalized in a few cities in the US, but remains a [Schedule I drug federally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances).\nA bill to legalize psilocybin, LSD, and other psychedelics has been [reviewed by the California Senate in August 2021](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB519). Oregon has decriminalized posession of [small doses of LSD](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/oregon-drug-decriminalization-1121763/).\n[MDMA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#Legal_status), [mescaline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mescaline#United_States), and [DMT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N,N-Dimethyltryptamine#By_country_and_continent) are Schedule I drugs and are illegal for all purposes federally.\nScott Wiener, California state representative who authored SB-519 to decriminalize psychedelics, [said in February 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-california-bill-would-decriminalize-psychedelics-expunge-criminal-records-n1258261), \"The war on drugs has been a complete failure, It hasn't stopped people from using drugs and it hasn’t stopped addiction.\" Other proponents of decriminalization argue psychedelics have [legitimate uses for medical or psychotheraputic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_therapy).\nWill any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if any state decriminalizes or legalizes any of the following:\n---psilocybin \n---LSD \n---MDMA \n---mescaline \n---DMT \nbetween December 21, 2021 to January 1, 2023 (excluding Oregon's current decriminalization of psilocybin and LSD). This question may also resolve positive if any of the above drugs is reclassified as a [Schedule III, IV, V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_III_controlled_substances) or unrestricted substance federally. Decriminalization or Legalization may be restricted to medical or recreational use, and may be restricted to within a maximum amount/dose.\nThe law may decriminalize/legalize some activities, but not others; that is, the question may resolve positively if any of posession, sale, transport, or production/cultivation are decriminalized, while others remain criminal. [\"Deprioritization\"](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/third-massachusetts-city-approves-psychedelics-decriminalization-measure/), where the substance remains criminalized but is deprioritized for enforcement and prosecution, will not qualify to resolve this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:17.254Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "[short-fuse] What will be the Biden Administration's social cost of 1 ton of CO2 in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9000/us-social-cost-of-carbon-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [social cost of carbon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cost_of_carbon) (SCC) is an estimate of the cost (and benefit) to society caused by the emission of a marginal ton of CO2. This estimate is useful for applications such as [carbon taxes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_price) and measuring the cost/benefit of other climate regulations and policies. The SCC estimate can vary based on the time-frame considered, [time discounting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference), climate models, forecasting growth of zero-carbon energy and carbon capture, and different models of social harms from climate change. Given this complexity, climate experts often publish ranges of the social cost of carbon, according to different assumptions and models.\nOn February 26, 2021, the Interagency Working Group (IWG) on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases convened by the Biden Administration released an [initial report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/TechnicalSupportDocument_SocialCostofCarbonMethaneNitrousOxide.pdf) giving estimates on the social cost of carbon in 2020, suggesting $51 per ton of CO2 at a 3% annual discount rate, with estimates ranging from $14 to $76 per ton of CO2 based on different discount rates. The [Trump Administration previously estimated](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/op-ed/trump-vs-obama-social-cost-carbon-and-why-it-matters) the SCC at $1 to $6 in November 2017. The IPCC gives several estimates for SCC, depending both on the year the CO2 is emitted and for different warming scenario targets. [Their 2018 report](https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/) estimated the SCC in 2030 for an under 1.5°C pathway range from $171 to $7680 (in 2021 USD).\nPresident Joe Biden issued Executive Order 13990 in January 2021, reconvening the IWG and [requesting that they issue a final report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/TechnicalSupportDocument_SocialCostofCarbonMethaneNitrousOxide.pdf) on SCC in January 2022.\nWhat will be the Biden Administration's social cost of 1 ton of CO2 in 2022?\nThis question will resolve according to the next estimate of the social cost of carbon in 2022, according to the US Interagency Working Group, currently scheduled for January 2022. In the case that an exact cost is emphasized by the IWG, that figure will be used as the resolution number. In the case that a range of estimates are given, the [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) of estimates will be used as resolution (see the fine-print for examples).\nThis question will close 24 hours before the release of the IWG report, currently scheduled in January 2022. This will resolve according to figures given by the IWG in their next report released; if no such update occurs by January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor example, if the social cost of carbon were estimated to be either $1 or $100, the [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) would be:\nFor the February 2021 IWG estmates, this question would resolve as the geometric mean of the 3 averages of different time-discounting functions:\nIn the case that the IWG does not estimate a SCC for carbon produced in 2022, this question will use the estimate for the closest year prior to 2022. All costs will be inflation-indexed to 2021 USD. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:22.455Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9002/maximum-us-covid-cases-before-april/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US is currently experiencing a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the much more transmissible [Omicron variant becoming predominant](https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/omicron-could-become-dominant-strain-in-us-in-next-few-weeks-health-experts-say/2712039/). This has been speculated to possibly [produce an upcoming large spike in cases](https://people.com/health/cdc-warns-that-rapid-spread-of-omicron-could-lead-to-massive-spike-in-covid-cases-by-january/).\nWhat will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the maximum value of the \"7-day Moving Avg Cases\" on [the US CDC website tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases) for the dates of January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:27.702Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 334,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9003/maximum-us-covid-deaths-before-april/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US is currently experiencing a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the much more transmissible Omicron variant becoming predominant. This has been speculated to possibly produce an upcoming large spike in cases.\nWhat will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?\nThis question resolves as the maximum value of the [\"7-day Moving Avg Deaths\"](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths) on the US CDC website tracker for the dates of 2022 Jan 1 to 2022 Apr 1.\nThe \"Daily Deaths\" view should be selected. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:32.848Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9004/lowest-us-unemployment-rate-for-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US had a fairly low [unemployment rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_in_the_United_States) of [3.5% in January 2020](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/), before reaching 14.8% during the onset of the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19_pandemic). The economy recovered fairly quickly from this shock, reaching 4.2% for November 2021. These trends are persisting despite [significant labor shortages and voluntary resignations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Resignation), likely contributing to [US inflation reaching 6.8%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dGq) in November 2021.\n[TradingEconomics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) forecasts the unemployment rate to rise slightly, to average 4.5% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023. [The Fed projected](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm) in December 2021 that unemployment would reach 3.5% in 2022, [Kiplinger](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/jobs) forecasted a rate of 3.5% in 2022, and the [Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm) projects 3.9% by july 2022.\nWhat will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the lowest unemployment rate ([U-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_in_the_United_States#Unemployment_rates)) measured for any month in 2022, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:38.069Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9005/date-addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8513/addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf-before-june-2022/) \n(background text [authored](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8513/addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf-before-june-2022/) by @EvanHarper)\n[The Tigray war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War) began in November 3, 2021, starting a conflict between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael. Tensions rose following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) in September 2020. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \nWhen will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?\nThis question will resolve on the date when at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that:\n--- \nthe National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front\n--- \nwho are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces\n--- \nand who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia\nIf this does not occur by January 1, 2024, this question will resolve as >January 1, 2024.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:43.228Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9010/7-day-avg-daily-cases-in-va-on-feb-18th/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at [3575](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689.\nWhat will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for February 18th, 2022 from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:53.517Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 145,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-23T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9014/highest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-mar-18/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current [model projections](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/) indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant. \nThe highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of [6166](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhat will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:21:58.679Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 286,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9016/highest-daily-case-timing-in-va-before-mar-18/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current [model projections](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/) indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant.\nThe highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on January 18th, 2021, with the 7-day average of [6166](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhen will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:03.885Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9017/lowest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-mar-18th/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current [model projections](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/) indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant.\nThe lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2021, with the 7-day average of [129](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhat will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:09.161Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9018/lowest-daily-case-timing-in-va-before-mar-18/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks since Thanksgiving, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven by various factors including the Omicron variant. As of December 21st, 2021, the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at 3575 quickly approaching the Delta wave peak of 3689. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes, holiday travel, and the impact of cold weather during the coming months. Further, current [model projections](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/) indicate an unprecedented surge that could be caused by the Omicron variant.\nThe lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of [129](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhen will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:14.311Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of new passenger car sales will be all-electric in Australia in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9028/new-ev-sales-in-australia-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "(background text originally by @Grigfall)\nAustralia has lagged many other developed countries when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Whereas 75% of new passenger car sales in Norway in 2020 were EVs, only 1% were EVs in Australia, according to the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer)\nThe Labor Opposition took a target of 50% EVs in new car sales by 2030 [to the last federal election](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/01/50-of-new-cars-to-be-electric-vehicles-by-2030-under-labor-climate-change-policy), which the Coalition Government said was a \"war on the weekend\" because EVs would not have \"the grunt\" to pull caravans or boats. However, [the Coalition's own modelling expects 25-50% EV share of new car sales by 2030.](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/05/coalition-modelling-not-far-off-labors-electric-vehicle-target-despite-criticising-it)\n[The Coalition has since moderated its language around EVs,](https://thedriven.io/2021/04/01/morrison-now-claims-he-never-mocked-electric-vehicle-tecnology/) but car companies and their representatives have described Australia's EV policies as akin to \"a third world country\" (Volkswagen), a \"uniquely hostile market\" (Electric Vehicle Council) and lacking \"consistent and cohesive national targets and supporting policies\" (Nissan) ([source](https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/not-even-tesla-can-overcome-australia-s-hostility-to-electric-cars-20210414-p57izn.html))\nWe have one prediction already: [last year](https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/australia-to-lag-on-ev-sales-until-2030s-bnef-20200522-p54vfd) BloombergNEF predicted EVs as 18% of new car sales in 2030. The IEA also projects [global new EV sales](https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer) to rise from 4.6% in 2020 to 17.3% under the trajectory of current national policies and industry development (their STEPS projection), potentially as high as 36% under their recommended policy scenario (SDS).\nWhat percentage of new passenger car sales will be all-electric in Australia in 2030?\nThe answer will be the share of new passenger vehicles sold in Australia in 2030 that are [battery electric vehicles or fuel cell electric vehicles](https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/electric-vehicles/) (i.e. excluding hybrid plug-in electric vehicles). This question will resolve according to the [International Energy Agency's annual global reports](https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer), or another high-quality source of data if the IEA no longer reports this data.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:19.446Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T21:05:16.526000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9029/2022-winter-olympics-completed-as-scheduled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the postponement of the 2020 Summer Olympics to 2021, marking the first time since 1992 in which the Winter and Summer Olympics would be held less than six months apart from each other.\nThe 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to take place from 4 to 20 February 2022 and are scheduled to include a record 109 events.\nWill the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and without delays?\nThis question resolves positively if all of:\n1-- \nthe Opening Ceremony takes place on February 4th, 2022\n2-- \nthe Closing Ceremony takes place on February 20th, 2022\n3-- \nat least 95% of all 109 events are completed in between these two events\nOtherwise it resolves negatively.\nAn \"event\" is considered complete if medals are awarded. Delays of individual events do not cause a negative resolution as long as all events are completed before the Closing Ceremony. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:25.242Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-21T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9031/low-income-countries-vaccinated-by-eoy-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8989/1-nations-with-10-covid-vaccine-by-2023/) \nAs the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) is spreading globally, [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=High+income~Upper+middle+income~Lower+middle+income~Low+income~OWID_WRL) shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found [here](https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/scripts/input/wb/income_groups.csv).\n\"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” [said Lawrence Gostin](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed at global vaccine distribution, [set an initial target](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.\n\"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries,\" said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, [estimated in November 2021](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1052078529/why-low-income-countries-are-so-short-on-covid-vaccines-hint-its-not-boosters) that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022.\nWhat percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?\nThis question will resolve according to the share of the population of low-income countries which have recieved at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=High+income~Upper+middle+income~Lower+middle+income~Low+income~OWID_WRL) on January 1, 2023. The classification of which countries are \"low-income\" can be found [here](https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/scripts/input/wb/income_groups.csv). If countries change their classification by January 1, 2023, the version on December 24, 2021 will be used. Nations which do not have any data (such as North Korea) may be excluded unless an alternative credible source is available.\nResolution may be delayed for 2 months to account for delays in reporting data.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:30.373Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-04T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China allow US travellers to travel without quarantine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9038/quarantine-free-us-travel-to-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China [closed its borders](https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/china-travel-covid-19/index.html) to nearly all travelers in March 2020, when the virus started spreading outside its own borders. On March 15, 2021, restrictions were somewhat eased for business travelers as they can now apply for travel visas, but those arriving still have to face a harsh period of quarantine between [14 and 56 days](https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-quarantine-56-days-travelers-arrive-china-shenyang-city-2021-11) depending on their city of arrival.\nWhen will China allow US travellers to travel without quarantine?\nThis question will resolve positively if the [US embassy in China](https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/covid-19-information/) reports that travellers from the US are not required to quarantine. If the US embassy in China is not sufficiently clear, other sources, such as US government statements, Chinese government statements, or credible media reports may suffice as a source.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:35.593Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9042/us-taxprep-to-decline-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.\nWill <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?\nThe IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nAs numbers currently appear to be available on a 3-year lag, it seems likely that this question won’t resolve until several years after the designated resolution date. If 2027 numbers are not available by 2032, then the earliest post 2027 data available should be used. If no later data is available, this question should resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:40.734Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9043/-of-us-children-under-5-covid-19-vaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Pfizer/Biontech reported in December 2021](https://news.yahoo.com/whats-timeline-kids-under-5-224247745.html) some early results for their COVID-19 vaccination regimen in children under 5 years old. Subjects between 6 months and 2 years old did produce an immune response, where subjects from 2 to 5 years old did not. Pfizer is planning on testing the effects of a third dose in the 2 to 5 year old subject group. If the third-dose test is successful, [Pfizer expects](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-ongoing-studies-covid-19) to submit their data for [Emergency Use Authorization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Use_Authorization) in the first half of 2022. \nWhat percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of all US children under the age of 5 who have recieved at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine, according to the [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total) on December 31, 2022. If the CDC no longer reports this data, other high quality data sources may be used, or the question may resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.\nIf no vaccine is available or authorized for children under 5, then this question will resolve as \"0\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:45.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-28T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due \"other risks\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/gc-caused-by-other-if-gc-occurs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nThe Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n---[Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/) \n---[Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/) \n---[Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/) \n---[Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) \n---[Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/) \n---[Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/) \nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\nIf a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\", i.e. other than those listed above?\nThe question resolves: \n--- \npositively if a global catastrophe occurs that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100 and none of the listed questions resolve positively\n--- \nambiguously if a global catastrophe occurs and any of the listed questions resolve ambiguously\n--- \nambiguously if no global catastrophe occurs\n--- \nnegatively if a global catastrophe occurs and are attributatable to any of the listed causes, such that at least one of them resolves positively\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:22:56.246Z",
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- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some \"other risk\" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9051/other-risk-to-cause-near-extinction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n---[Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/) \n---[Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/) \n---[Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/) \n---[Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) \n---[Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/) \n---[Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/) \nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an catastrophe occurs caused by \"other risks\" that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) that is caused by \"other\" causes does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \nThe question resolves negative if a global catastrophe caused by \"other risks\" occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n6-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:01.368Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
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- "publish_time": "2021-12-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2124-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9053/new-covid-19-cases-in-mainland-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In December 2021, China's local symptomatic Covid-19 cases resurged, with Xi'an city reporting more infections in a flare-up that has put 13 million residents under lockdown.\nReport: [Covid cases rise in Xi’an as China battles biggest community outbreak since 2020](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/27/covid-cases-rise-in-xian-as-china-battles-biggest-community-outbreak-since-2020)\nWhat will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?\nThe 7-day average number as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases) will be used to resolve this question. If not available, other credible data source such as the [Johns Hopkins CSSE Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series) can be used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:06.572Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-07T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T15:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Metaculus' [Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/) explores threats to the human race. Several define a \"Global Catastrophe\" to mean a period of 5 years or less where the world population declines by 10% or more. Despite humanity's tumultuous history, including [World Wars 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) and [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [1918 Flu pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), and the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the only events likely to meet this criteria would be [the Black Death](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death) of 1347 and the year 560 [Plague of Justinian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian). For other estimates of major pandemics, see [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics).\nMetaculus has some other estimates of extinction or near extinction (all estimates as of December 29, 2021):\n---2% [chance of extinction by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/). \n---25% (or less) of extinction [conditional on a decline to 100 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/time-of-recovery-following-global-catastrophe/) by year 2345. \n---25% of extinction within 20 years, [conditional on a decline to 400 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) by year 2100. \nThe Ragnarok Series attempts to forecast the relative severity of various existential risks, such as Climate, Nuclear War, Artificial Intelligence, Biological Engineering and Biological Weapons, and Nanotechnology. While those these recieve the majority of attention and concern in 2021, there may be risks resulting from unforseen future developments, or risks from dangers currently known but recieving insufficient attention. For this question, we'll ask about the risk of population decline by any cause as a point of comparison.\nRagnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?\nThis question will resolve positively if, after the world population declines by 10% (in any period of 5 years or less), the global population is less than 5% of the pre-decline population at any point within 25 years after the catastrophe. This question will resolve negatively if there is a global population decline of 10% in 5 years or less, but there is no population decline of 95% in a 25-year period. If there is no such population decline of 10% in any 5-year period between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n5-- \n[If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n6-- \n[If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n7-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n11- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n12- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically. \n",
- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:27.159Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-06-15T22:59:00Z"
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- "title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9062/transition-time-from-agi-to-superintelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/) (alternative resolution criteria) \n(background text by @[Matthew_Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/))\nFuturists have long speculated that upon the arrival of [artificial general intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), the first [superintelligent AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence) will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nAfter an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?\nThis question will resolve as the number of months between the first development of an Artificial General Intelligence and a Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence, according to widespread media and historical consensus. If an AGI is not created before January 1, 2150, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\"Artificial General Intelligence\" (AGI) is defined for the purposes of this question based on [another Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), the full (updated) definition of which is in the fine print.\n\"Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence\" (SAI) is defined for the purposes of this question as an AI which can perform any task humans can perform in 2021, as well or superior to the best humans in their domain. The SAI may be able to perform these tasks themselves, or be capable of designing sub-agents with these capabilities (for instance the SAI may design [robots capable of beating professional football players](http://www.robocup.org/objective) which are not successful brain surgeons, and design top brain surgeons which are not football players). Tasks include (but are not limited to): performing in top ranks among professional e-sports leagues, performing in top ranks among physical sports, preparing and serving food, providing emotional and psychotherapeutic support, discovering scientific insights which could win [2021 Nobel prizes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize), creating original art and entertainment, and having professional-level software design and AI design capabilities.\nAs an AI improves in capacity, it may not be clear at which point the SAI has become able to perform any task as well as top humans. It will be defined that the AI is superintelligent if, in less than 7 days in a non-externally-constrained environment, the AI already has or can learn/invent the capacity to do any given task. A \"non-externally-constrained environment\" here means, for instance, access to the internet and compute and resources similar to contemporaneous AIs.\n\"an artificial general intelligence\" is defined as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human:\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a text-only Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test) or [Longbets Kurzweil/Kapor Bet](https://longbets.org/1/), in which human judges cannot reliably distinguish normal human chat participants from AI.\n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:37.737Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9063/collapse-of-thwaites-eastern-ice-shelf/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ice shelves are permanent floating sheets of ice that connect to a landmass. Most of the world's ice shelves hug the coast of Antarctica. Because ice shelves already float in the ocean, they [do not contribute directly to sea level rise](https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/iceshelves.html) when they break up. However, ice shelf collapse could contribute to sea level rise indirectly. Thwaites Glacier is the size of Florida. It is the cork in the bottle of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, which contains [enough ice to raise sea levels](https://cires.colorado.edu/news/threat-thwaites-retreat-antarctica%E2%80%99s-riskiest-glacier) by [10 feet](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/doomsday-glacier-thwaites-antarctica-climate-crisis-1273841/).\nGlaciologist Professor Ted Scambos [said to the BBC in December 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59644494):\nThere is going to be dramatic change in the front of the glacier, probably in less than a decade. Both published and unpublished studies point in that direction [...] This will accelerate the pace (of Thwaites) and widen, effectively, the dangerous part of the glacier\nA collaborative report by Erin C. Pettit et al. [predicted](https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/978762):\nWe have mapped out weaker and stronger areas of the ice shelf and suggest a “zig-zag” pathway the fractures might take through the ice, ultimately leading to break up of the shelf in as little as 5 years, which result in more ice flowing off the continent. \nWhen will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?\nThis question will resolve when over 50% of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf has collapsed or melted, according to [The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration](https://thwaitesglacier.org/), or from credible reports by media and government agencies. The collapsed extent of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf should be in comparison to its extent in December 2021. Other events such as the melting, collapse, falling into the sea of other glaciers or ice sheets, or any corresponding sea level rise, are not relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:42.900Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-03-31T22:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-29T23:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In January 2030, what will the Federal Reserves' Index be for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9067/us-semiconductor-capacity-in-jan-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/) (closed) \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. [The main applications](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976) of semiconductors are electronic devices like junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits. The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nRecent advancements in AI have come at least in part due to the increased power and decreasing cost of CPUs and GPUs, for which semiconductors are vital components. AI capabilities have been improved further by designing chips optimized for running AI functions. In April 2020, [Georgetown University's CSET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Security_and_Emerging_Technology) published an [in-depth survey](https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/AI-Chips%E2%80%94What-They-Are-and-Why-They-Matter.pdf) on AI chip designs and their impacts on the AI research field.\nIn 2020 to 2021, the world experienced a [broad shortage of computer chips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_global_chip_shortage) affecting multiple industries. AMD CEO Lisa Su [predicted in September 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/27/amd-ceo-lisa-su-says-chip-shortage-likely-to-end-next-year.html) that the chip shortage would remain \"pretty tight\", but that the chip production would improve in the second half of 2022.\nIn January 2030, what will the Federal Reserves' Index be for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the Federal Reserves' Index for [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2017 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2017 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:23:48.113Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-01T19:47:19.761000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9079/democrats-in-house-of-representatives-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate-in-2022/)\nEvery 2 years, the United States elects all 435 members of its lower legislative body, [the House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives). Democrats hold (as of December 30, 2021) a majority of seats in the House, the Senate, and the Presidency, although their margin in the House is only 8 seats. Recent decades have been [highly competitive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Historical_distribution_of_parties_in_US_House_of_Representatives.svg), and the House has trended towards [Republican control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Combined--Control_of_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives_-_Control_of_the_U.S._Senate.png). In the [last 10 midterm elections](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections) (where the President was not up for election), the party opposing the President gained a median of 19.5 seats.\nDemocratic President Joe Biden holds (on December 30, 2021) a -8.0 percentage point [net approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/). Generic Congressional Ballot polling finds (on December 30, 2021) Republicans are favored over Democrats by [0.8 percentage points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/). 2022 will also be the first year under [newly-drawn districts](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/), although FiveThirtyEight Elections Analyst Nate Silver predicted (in December 2021) that new district boundaries [won't give either party a significant advantage](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/do-you-buy-that-the-redistricting-process-will-hurt-democrats/).\n[The election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections) is currently scheduled for November 8, 2022.\nHow many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the number of Democrats who won an election to the US House of Representatives in 2022. This number will be determined by whomever won their elections, according to the [US Federal Elections Comission](https://www.fec.gov/), following any runoff elections or recounts. It will not necessarily reflect the House Membership or party control at any particular time (if members retire or are appointed during the counting and resolution of votes).\nIndependent or third-party candidates who are known to caucus with the Democratic party will be included in the count of Democratic Representatives. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:24:40.786Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-08T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9080/democrats-in-senate-after-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8971/republicans-win-house-and-senate-in-2022/)\nEvery 2 years, the United States elects all 435 members of the House of Representatives, as well as one-third of the 100 members of the [US senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate). Democrats hold (as of December 30, 2021) a majority of seats in the House, the Senate, and the Presidency, although they hold exactly 50 seats in the Senate, only winning a \"majority\" with tie-breaking votes by Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. Recent decades have been [highly competitive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate#/media/File:Combined--Control_of_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives_-_Control_of_the_U.S._Senate.png). In the [last 10 midterm elections](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections) (where the President was not up for election), the party opposing the President gained a median of 3.5 seats, and gained at least one seat in 6 out of 10 years.\nDemocratic President Joe Biden holds (on December 30, 2021) a -8.0 percentage point [net approval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/). Generic Congressional Ballot polling finds (on December 30, 2021) Republicans are favored over Democrats by [0.8 percentage points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/).\n[The election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections) is currently scheduled for November 8, 2022.\nHow many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?\nThis question will resolve as the number of Democrats who won an election to the US Senate in 2022, in addition to the sitting Democratic Senators who are not scheduled for election. This number will be determined by whomever won their elections, according to the [US Federal Elections Comission](https://www.fec.gov/), following any runoff elections or recounts, plus the sitting Democrats not up for election on Election Day. It will not necessarily reflect the Senate Membership or party control at any particular time (if members retire or are appointed during the counting and resolution of votes).\nIndependent or third-party candidates who are known to caucus with the Democratic party will be included in the count of Democratic Senators. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:24:45.902Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-08T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9086/kim-jong-un-leader-of-dprk-until-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nWill Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?\nThis question will resolve positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea, in the period between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:25:11.733Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9118/cost-effectiveness-of-amf-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Against Malaria Foundation](https://www.againstmalaria.com/) (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, especially children, from dying from malaria.\n[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) are a charity that produce high quality cost-effectiveness analyses. These analyses try to estimate the marginal impact of increasing donations to different charities, and they summarize this as a single number: cost per life saved, after adjustments.\nGiveWell have consistently rated AMF as one of the most cost-effective charities available. Previous cost-effectiveness analyses can be found [here](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models). GiveWell's current methodology can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZKq-MNU-xtn_48uN33L6VvBEZRAduvjwWMeaEffL4K4/edit).\nIn 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?\nResolution will be according to the first GiveWell cost-effectiveness estimate published in 2023.\nIf GiveWell produce separate estimates for several geographical areas, we will use the estimate for the area where AMF is maximally cost-effective. According to the September 2021 data, this would be the cost-effectiveness in Nigeria (PMI States): $4,113 per life saved.\nWe want to find the cost per life saved, after adjustments, and will use the best estimate of that. In 2019, we would have used 'cost per life saved, after downside adjustments, adjustments for excluded effects, and funging adjustments'. In 2018, we would have used 'cost per death averted [after accounting for leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/)'. If no appropriate figure is given (if all numbers are in terms of cash transfers, for example), then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nIf the estimates of several people are given, we will take the median estimate.\nIf GiveWell do not update their cost-effectiveness analysis for AMF in 2023, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:06.054Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T12:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/) \nOn December 22, 2021 [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/holden-karnofsky/) published [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) on his Cold Takes blog:\n[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) and I have agreed to the following bet:\n--- \nIf at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.\n--- \nOtherwise, Zvi pays me $60.\n--- \nThis bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters” in the following sense: counting cases from the new strain would cause me to win, and not counting them would cause Zvi to win.\n--- \nWe'll use [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) for total COVID-19 cases and [this CDC data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for variant information. Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting.\nThe concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.\nWill Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?\nThis question will resolve positively if Holden wins the above bet with Zvi, according to Holden's and Zvi's public agreement to resolve the bet. Resolution is positive if Holden wins, negative if Zvi wins, and ambiguous if they declare the bet is a \"push\".\nA related Metaculus question on whether this bet will resolve ambigously can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:11.330Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-08T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9120/ambiguous-resolution-of-holdens-bet-with-zvi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) \nOn December 22, 2021 [Holden Karnofsky](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/holden-karnofsky/) published [Bet with Zvi about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) on his Cold Takes blog:\n[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) and I have agreed to the following bet:\n--- \nIf at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 (inclusive) occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22 (inclusive), I pay Zvi $40.\n--- \nOtherwise, Zvi pays me $60.\n--- \nThis bet is intended to apply to Omicron and earlier strains, and it will be a “push” if a post-Omicron strain “muddies the waters” in the following sense: counting cases from the new strain would cause me to win, and not counting them would cause Zvi to win.\n--- \nWe'll use [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases) for total COVID-19 cases and [this CDC data](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for variant information. Each of us has the option to appeal to a third party (whom we've agreed on) to perform an adjustment for undertesting.\nThe concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.\nWill Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?\nThis question will resolve positively if Zvi and Holden's [Bet about Omicron](https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/) is not won by either Zvi or Holden, by mutual agreement between the two parties. That is, if the bet is called off, if the “push” clause on post-Omicron strain(s) “muddying the waters” is triggered, or there is not agreement between Zvi and Holden about the winner of the bet, then this question will resolve positively. If the bet has not been publicly resolved by September 1, 2023, this question will resolve positively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:16.549Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-09T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-08T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9121/tether-to-collapse-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_%28cryptocurrency%29) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2022?\nThe question will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on [FTX](https://ftx.com/trade/USDT/USD). \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on FTX, Binance and Coinbase will be suspended for more than 7 days. \nThe question will also resolve positively in case all the 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2022. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2023. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:21.751Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-30T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern originate in an low-vaccination nation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9122/next-sars-cov-2-variant-from-the-unvaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The World Health Organization has (as of January 2022) identified several variants of SARS-CoV-2, 5 of which are designated as [variants of concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/). This designation indicates that the variant is more serious than previous variants of the virus, in that it is more transmissible, or evades current vaccinations or treatments. According to the WHO, 4 of the variants of concern emerged before vaccinations were available or widely deployed. Around [25-28% of South Africans](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~ZAF) had recieved at least 1 dose of a COVID vaccine at the time the omicron variant was identified there, while the global average vaccination share was around 50%.\nDr. William Schaffner from the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center said to [CNN in July 2021](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/15/five-more-years/) \"Unvaccinated people are potential variant factories [...] The more unvaccinated people there are, the more opportunities for the virus to multiply [...] When it does, it mutates, and it could throw off a variant mutation that is even more serious down the road.\"\nDr. Amesh Adalja, from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security said to Poynter in August 2021, \"The delta variant emerged in a largely unvaccinated country [...] The more the virus spreads, the more chance there is for variants to emerge.\"\nWill the next SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern originate in an low-vaccination nation?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next [variant of concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) originates from a country with a lower share of the population vaccinated than [the global average](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~OWID_WRL).\nThis question will use the [WHO](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) to determine the country of origin. If, like for omicron, they only list \"multiple countries\", we will consult [cov-lineages](https://cov-lineages.org/lineage_list.html), or wait for a epidemiological consensus to emerge.\nA country will be considered a \"low-vaccination nation\" if [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) shows the share of population who have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine is lower than the global average during the period when the variant is estimated to have emerged.\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if there is no new variant of concern between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:26.935Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9123/pre-training-for-code-generation-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Natural language pre-training of language models supports impressive performance gains on downstream tasks cf. [[1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.03501v2), [2](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01293), [3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165v4)]. However, research into scaling laws shows some of these gains fall off as downstream task data availability increases. In this context, we'd like to know whether natural language pre-training will continue to be useful as training scales up.\nIn 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?\nThis questions resolves positively if the most used code generating AI (by monthly average users, Dec. 2025) was pre-trained on a corpus of >50% natural language.\nIf monthly average user data is unavailable, total number of downloads of the corresponding repository/plug-in may be used for comparison instead. If no such metric is available, then the successor to GitHub Copilot will be used for resolution purposes. If all of these conditions fail, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf the precise composition of the relevant pre-training corpus is not publicly known, it will qualify for positive resolution if it is described as a natural language corpus. Alternatively, if the corpus is known to draw on sources (e.g. Twitter, books, etc.) the majority of which are not primarily used for sharing code, then the corpus will also qualify for positive resolution. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:27:32.749Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T20:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9163/trump-back-on-twitter-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald Trump was famously banned by Twitter [on 8th January 2021](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension) and [other social media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_use_by_Donald_Trump#2021) such as Facebook. There has since been some talk of letting him back on social media, [Facebook decided to keep the ban for 2 years](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/facebook-says-donald-trump-to-remain-banned-from-platform-for-2-years-effective-from-jan-7.html). Twitter changed CEO recently, and this could potentially impact decisions.\nWill Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has an official [Twitter](https://twitter.com/) account for his personal use (not managed by his staff), and is publicly recognized by Twitter (that is, not an evasion of his ban or against the Twitter terms of service).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:16.227Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9171/more-than-35-fusion-corps-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Optimism about the viability of nuclear fusion has been growing. But it is unlikely that any of the key milestones, [such as energy breakeven or commercial viability](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/), will be achieved this year (or perhaps this decade). \nAs a proxy for whether the fusion industry continues to gather pace, then, this question looks at the number of fusion companies in existence. According to [a report by the Fusion Industry Association (FIA)](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry), that number has gone up from one in 1997, to five in 2007, to 23 by 2020. \nAt the time of writing, there are \"at least 35\" global fusion companies, of which 25 are members of the FIA. Will that number go up in 2022?\nWill there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023, the [Fusion Industry Association](https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/about-fusion-industry) reports that there are more than 35 fusion companies in the world. Otherwise (including if the FIA does not report any updated figures in that time) it will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:21.396Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-31T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9172/cost-of-energy-storage-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Solar energy is already cheaper than fossil fuels. But the big bottleneck for its use is no longer cost, but practical questions such as storage. Batteries are still the most obvious way of storing electrical energy. Lazard released a [report in October 2021](https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/) analyzing multiple battery storage systems, finding the cheapest use case in a wholesale PV + storage system, at a cost of 85 - 158 $/MWh (for a geometric mean value of 116 $/MWh).\n[Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline) reported in 2021 that the price of batteries fell by 97% in the past 3 decades.\nThe [Levelised Cost of Energy Storage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_energy) (LCOS) is an estimate of the full cost of building and operating an energy storage facility, relative to the expected amount of energy generated in its lifetime.\nWhat will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage according to [Lazard's LCOS v8.0 report](https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/), currently expected to be published in late 2022. If Lazard provides multiple estimates for different energy storage systems for different purposes, the cheapest purpose will be used for resolution; if Lazard provides a range of estimates (as in the LCOS 7.0 report for \"wholesale PV + storage\" at 85 - 158 $/MWh), this question will resolve as the [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) of the 2 endpoints of that range (which would be 115.89 $/MWh in the LCOS 7.0).\nIf Lazard does not release a new report on battery storage by January 1, 2024, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the report has been published.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:26.518Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-05T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9174/phase-iii-trials-on-cancer-vaccines-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is a lot of excitement about the use of mRNA technology to develop therapeutic cancer vaccines. The German firm BioNTech have [four such vaccines undergoing Phase II trials](https://biontech.de/science/pipeline) at the moment.\nOutside of the crisis-mode of pandemic vaccines, it usually takes years to get from Phase II to approval.\nWill any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?\nIf BioNTech declares during 2022 that any of its four ongoing Phase II trials into cancer vaccines (BNT111 for melanoma, BNT113 for head and neck cancer, BNT122 for melanoma and for colorectal cancer) will proceed to Phase III trials, this question will resolve positively. Otherwise it will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:31.692Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9182/uk-deaths-from-covid-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "About 75,000 British people died of Covid in 2020 and a roughly similar number in 2021, despite strict lockdown measures. Will we see anything on that scale in 2022?\nWill more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?\nIf, according to the [UK Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths), the total cumulative number of deaths on 31 December 2022 is more than 20,000 higher than it was on 31 December 2021 (149,000), then this question will resolve positively. Otherwise it will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:36.916Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-30T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-07T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9186/global-covid-19-deaths-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/) \nThe COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of 4 January 2022, the pandemic had caused more than 292 million cases and 5.45 million deaths, making it one of the deadliest in history. \nHow many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?\nThis question will resolve based on the number of deaths from COVID-19 reported by [WHO](https://covid19.who.int/) occuring in 2025. In the case that WHO data is not available, another source such as [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths) may be used.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:42.040Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will number of reported COVID-19 deaths (globally) per week go below 10,000 for 3 weeks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9187/3-weeks-with-covid-19-deaths-below-10-000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/) \nThe COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of 4 January 2022, the pandemic had caused more than 292 million cases and 5.45 million deaths, making it one of the deadliest in history.\n10,000 deaths per week globally translates to more than 0.5 million deaths a year. For comparison, [influenza-related deaths ](https://www.who.int/influenza/Global_Influenza_Strategy_2019_2030_Summary_English.pdf) are estimated at around 0.3 - 0.7 million.\nWhen will number of reported COVID-19 deaths (globally) per week go below 10,000 for 3 weeks?\nThis question will resolve on the next 3 consecutive weeks when the number of reported COVID-19 deaths (globally) is below 10,000 per week. The first day of this 3-week period (or period of 21 days, not calendar weeks) will be used for resolution.\nThis question will resolve based on the number of deaths reported by [WHO worldwide](https://covid19.who.int/). In the case that WHO data is unavailable, another source such as [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~OWID_WRL&Metric=Confirmed+deaths) may be used.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if number of deaths globally on weekly basis will not be available.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:47.261Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9188/fourth-vaccine-doses-in-the-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2021, [the UK's health service started its \"booster\" campaign](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra-statement-on-booster-doses-of-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccines), offering third jabs of the Covid vaccine to all adults in the UK. \nBut will Covid vaccine boosters become annual events, like flu jabs? [Other forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8728/additional-covid-boosters-authorized-by-fda/) have asked that question of the US: this asks it about the UK.\nWill the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?\nThis will resolve positively if the MHRA authorises a fourth dose for the entire UK adult population before 1 January 2023.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:52.446Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-05T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T14:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9189/liverpool-to-win-the-league-this-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Liverpool]() are an association football team in the English [Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League), the top league in the English Football league system. They have qualified to remain in the Premier League since the League was founded in 1992. Liverpool's most recent win in the Premier League was in the 2019-2020 season. \nAs of the January 5, 2022 [League Table](https://www.premierleague.com/tables), Manchester City are firmly in first place, with Chelsea and Liverpool in close competition for second. [FiveThiryEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) (as of January 5, 2022) gives Liverpool 13% chance to win the league.\nWill Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?\nThis question will resolve positively if Liverpool are declared winners of the 2021-2022 Premier League. If any other team wins the season, this question will resolve negatively.\nIn the case that the season is cancelled, or for any reason there is no official winner of the season, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:29:57.653Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-07T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-03T23:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9207/china-covid-deaths-to-exceed-50k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Despite being the original epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic, China has fared relatively well in terms of reported deaths, with only 4,636 deaths reported as of Jan 2nd 2022, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/china#daily-confirmed-deaths-how-do-they-compare-to-other-countries).\nThis figure has been widely questioned, e.g. by [Forbes](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/amp/) and [ABC news](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100587910), with suggestions ranging from true numbers in the low 10,000s to over 1,000,000.\nThis question asks if OWID will report a cumulative deaths figure of greater than 50,000 for China by the end of 2022.\nWill cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 by the end of 2022?\nIf Our World In Data report a cumulative total of over 50,000 deaths in China by the end of 2022, this should resolve positively, otherwise it should resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:13.186Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Overwatch 2 be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9208/overwatch-2-release-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Overwatch 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overwatch_%28video_game%29) was announced at BlizzCon on November 7, 2014 and released on May 24, 2016 receiving universal acclaim from critics. Blizzard reported over US$1 billion in revenue during the first year of its release and had more than 50 million players after three years. The game is a popular esport, with Blizzard funding and producing the global Overwatch League.\nOverwatch 2, was announced at BlizzCon on November 1, 2019 and will include new player versus environment (PvE) co-operative multiplayer modes. In addition, it will have a shared competitive multiplayer environment, allowing players of both games to play against each other in the existing PvP modes. While it will be sold as a separate game, new heroes, maps, and competitive gamemodes will also exist in Overwatch 1.\nOverwatch 2 is expected to release for Microsoft Windows, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch, although there is currently no set release window. Investor documents released in November 2021 had reported that an initial planned release window in 2022 had been pushed to at least 2023, intended for \"giving the teams some extra time to complete production and continue growing their creative resources to support the titles after launch\".\nWhen will Overwatch 2 be released?\nThis question will resolve as the date when Overwatch 2 is released according to Wikipedia. If there is more than one release date (for example, due to different releases for different platforms), it will resolve as the earliest release date listed on Wikipedia. If Overwatch 2 is never released, it will resolve to \"greater than 12/31/2024.\"\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:18.381Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-02T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9214/kassym-jomart-tokayev-exits-presidency-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 2nd, 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices in Kazakhstan led to [local protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_protests), which quickly led to nationwide demonstrations including in the nation’s capital. The demands of the protesters are the decrease in fuel prices, but now include the resignation of both the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and the cabinet and also the removal of criminal immunity of the former president Nursultan Nazabayev. A state of emergency has been declared, and the Mamin Cabinet, the current government of the country, resigned on January 5th. \nLater on January 5th, Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned as the Chairman of the Security Council. [Tokayev succeeded him](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/).\nThere have been reports of [dozens of police and civilian deaths](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/protesters-police-die-amid-kazakhstan-unrest), alongside widespread arson and looting. 3,000 Russian paratroopers have [arrived in Kazakhstan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/shots-heard-in-kazakhstan-as-protests-enter-third-day).\nWill Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if, for a period of 1 week or more, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev does not hold the office the President of Kazahkstan (due to his resignation, a forceful coup, or through any means). This period must occur entirely in the year 2022 to resolve this question positively.\nIn the case of ambiguity (such as if more than one person claims to be the president), this question will consider Tokayev to remain the president if he has control of over 50% of Kazakh police forces or military forces.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:23.690Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from wind power worldwide in the year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9220/twh-of-electricity-from-wind-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether these pledges will be met. Many of these pledges involve expanding the role of renewables in electricity generation. Wind and solar [have been growing](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-elec-by-source) as a share of total electricity production, while the share of coal, [one of the most carbon intensive electricity sources](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11), has fallen.\nAccording to the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) wind generated 1,591.2 TWh of electricity in 2020.\nOur World in Data also provides an [Energy Data Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Wind&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Annual+generation) where trends in electricity generation by source can be seen.\nHow many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from wind power worldwide in the year 2030?\nThis resolves as the global amount of electricity generated by wind in terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030 as estimated by the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). The first published estimate will be used, later revisions will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question. If BP no longer publishes the relevant data, comparable data from alternate sources may be used at the discretion of the admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:28.861Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T18:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T18:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from coal worldwide in the year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9221/twh-of-electricity-from-coal-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether these pledges will be met. Many of these pledges involve expanding the role of renewables in electricity generation. Wind and solar [have been growing](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-elec-by-source) as a share of total electricity production, while the share of coal, [one of the most carbon intensive electricity sources](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11), has fallen.\nAccording to the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) coal generated 9,421.4 TWh of electricity in 2020.\nOur World in Data also provides an [Energy Data Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Coal&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Annual+generation) where trends in electricity generation by source can be seen.\nHow many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from coal worldwide in the year 2030?\nThis resolves as the global amount of electricity generated by coal in terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030 as estimated by the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). The first published estimate will be used, later revisions will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question. If BP no longer publishes the relevant data, comparable data from alternate sources may be used at the discretion of the admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:34.034Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9222/twh-of-electricity-from-nuclear-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether these pledges will be met. Many of these pledges involve expanding the role of renewables in electricity generation. Wind and solar [have been growing](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-elec-by-source) as a share of total electricity production, while the share of coal, [one of the most carbon intensive electricity sources](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11), has fallen.\nAccording to the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) nuclear power generated 2,700.1 TWh of electricity in 2020.\nOur World in Data also provides an [Energy Data Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Annual+generation) where trends in electricity generation by source can be seen.\nHow many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?\nThis resolves as the global amount of electricity generated by nuclear in terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030 as estimated by the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). The first published estimate will be used, later revisions will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question. If BP no longer publishes the relevant data, comparable data from alternate sources may be used at the discretion of the admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:40.163Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T19:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T19:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much total electricity, in terawatt-hours, will be generated worldwide in the year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9225/twh-of-global-electricity-generation-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key factor in estimating the makeup of future energy sources in electricity generation as well as future CO2 emissions is how much overall electricity demand there will be in the future. Total electricity generation has shown a [steady upward trend](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Total&Select+a+source=Gas&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Annual+generation) over the last several decades.\nAccording to the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html) there was 26,823.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity generated worldwide in 2020.\nHow many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated worldwide in the year 2030?\nThis resolves as the global amount of electricity generated in terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030 as estimated by the [BP Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). The first published estimate will be used, later revisions will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question. If BP no longer publishes the relevant data, comparable data from alternate sources may be used at the discretion of the admins.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:30:56.335Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T19:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T19:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of United States primary energy consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9300/date-fossil-fuels-50-of-us-energy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note, most of the text from this question was copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8651/date-fossil-fuels-50-of-global-energy/), which is about global energy consumption, rather than energy consumption in the United States.\nIn 2019, fossil fuels made [83.26%](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~USA&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total) of United States primary energy consumption. Primary energy refers not just to electricity, but also energy used in transport, industry, and in buildings (such as heating, appliances, and water heating). \n[Welsby et. al. 2021](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8) projected that in order to have a 50% chance of [limiting warming to 1.5C by 2100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference), the world must reduce oil and gas consumption by 3% each year until 2050. The US Department of Energy [published a study](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-solar-futures-study-providing-blueprint-zero-carbon-grid) which showed that the US could achieve a carbon-free electrical grid by 2050 by massively investing in solar and wind power.\nWhen will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of United States primary energy consumption?\nThis question will resolve on the estimated date when energy from fossil fuels makes up less than 50% of United States primary energy consumption, according to the [BP statistical review of energy](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~USA&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total). If BP no longer publishes this data or significantly changes their methodology, Metaculus Admins may use a similar source for resolution, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n\"Fossil fuels\" here means coal, oil, and natural gas. Primary energy will be calculated by [the substitution method](https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix#direct-vs-substituted-primary-energy-what-are-the-multiple-ways-of-energy-accounting), which takes account of excess energy lost in fossil fuel energy plants. The date of resolution will be estimated by linearly extrapolating the data (for example, if the data shows 51% fossil fuel energy on 2050-01-01 and 49.5% on 2051-01-01, the resolution date will be 2050-09-01). \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:31:11.917Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2038-10-08T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Highest level of ECB Deposit Facility Rate before the next Euro Area (EA) recession?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9303/ecb-deposit-facility-rate--next-ea-recession/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely low interest rates throughout the economic upswing of the previous decade. The European Central Bank interest rate for bank overnight deposits has remained negative since June 2013. As of January 2022, it stands at -0.5%.\nWhile the economies recover from Covid recession and inflation runs relatively high on both EA and US, Federal Reserve has already announced its intentions to raise its key interest rates during 2022. Will ECB at some point see the EA economy fit enough to follow Fed ´s lead and try to normalize its interest rate levels?\nWhat will be the Highest level of ECB Deposit Facility Rate before the next Euro Area (EA) recession?\nQuestion resolves when, according to the Eurostat, the Euro Area real GDP officially contracts (Quarter-on-quarter) for two successive quarters, which confirms a recession. \nDeposit Facility Rate, among with other ECB key interest rates, are publicly announced on ECB website, and historical rates can be found from multiple sources. See, for example: [https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_ex…](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html)\nGiven the usual publishing delays with the macroeconomic data, the last rate level to be taken into account while defining the \"highest Deposit Facility Rate\" will be the rate at the end of the last day of the particular quarter which predates EA entry into recession, NOT the day when the news outlets report about the beginning of the recession.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:31:17.063Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T09:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T14:25:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9311/ron-johnson-wins-2022-wisconsin-us-senate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) is the senior US senator from Wisconsin. He was first elected to the senate in 2010, [defeating Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold (D) 51.9% to 47.0%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2010/results/wisconsin.html), after Feingold had served the position since 1993. In the 2016 election, Johnson surprised the pollsters and [defeated Feingold once again with 50.2% of the vote to Feingold's 46.8%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/wisconsin-senate-johnson-feingold).\nDespite the 2016 polls, based on which [fivethirtyeight (81.7%)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/), [The Upshot (66%)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html), and [RealClearPolitics (-2.7%)](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html) expected Feingold to win, Johnson won instead. \nRecently, Wisconsin has seen large polling errors towards the presidential Democratic candidate in [2016 (538: 6.1% error towards Clinton)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/) and in [2020 (538: 7.9% towards Biden)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/).\nAs of January 2022, [Cook Political has indicated Wisconsin is one of its six state \"toss-up\" 2022 senate elections](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings). \nMany consider [Johnson a staunch Trump supporter](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/01/09/republican-u-s-sen-ron-johnson-announces-run-re-election/8797338002/).\nWill Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?\nThis question shall resolve positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates Ron Johnson has won the 2022 US Senate election for Wisconsin by March 2023. The election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:31:22.214Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-02T08:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-11T09:07:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9322/2022-us-covid-new-hospital-admission-peaks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 9, 2021, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 16,496.71 people in the U.S. were admitted to hospital for \"COVID19\". That was a single-day peak thru 2021.\nInfections again spiked the following winter.\nBy January 9, 2022, at least 5 days in 2022 reportedly had more than 16,497 hospital admissions for COVID19. (Admissions on Jan. 10, 11, 12 & 13 exceeded 16,497, even topping 21k.)\nOn how many days in 2022 will COVID Hospital Admissions in the United States exceed 16,497?\nOn how many days in 2022 will the U.S. 7-day average for hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?\nThis question will resolve according to CDC data on January 15, 2023. The resolution value will equal the number of days in 2022 on which the 7-day average for new U.S. hospital admissions for \"COVID19\" exceeded 16,497. [CDC's \"data tracker\"](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_newhospitaladmissions) or CDC's other COVID updates will be preferred resolution sources.\nThe question may be closed retroactively to the 99th day that counts toward resolution. Otherwise, it closes on August 31.\nAfter May 31, admins discretionarily may resolve this early, if the resolution value has become clear. (For example, \"COVID19\" may cease to be a reason for hospital admissions; or the resolution will inevitably exceed the upper bound.) \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:03.673Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T04:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T05:32:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9325/flu-hospitalizations-for-ny-jan-30-to-feb-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for New York between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:08.801Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-07T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9326/flu-hospitalizations-for-ny-feb-13-to-feb-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for New York between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:13.934Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-20T17:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9329/flu-hospitalizations-for-fl-jan-30-to-feb-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Florida between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:19.820Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9330/flu-hospitalizations-for-fl-feb-13-to-feb-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Florida between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:24.974Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-20T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9332/flu-hospitalizations-for-ok-jan-30-to-feb-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Oklahoma between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:30.097Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9333/flu-hospitalizations-for-ok-feb-13-to-feb-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Oklahoma between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:35.207Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-20T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9335/flu-hospitalizations-for-ca-jan-30-to-feb-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for California between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:40.386Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9336/flu-hospitalizations-for-ca-feb-13-to-feb-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for California between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:45.542Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-20T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Vermont for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9338/flu-hospitalizations-for-vt-jan-30-to-feb-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Vermont for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Vermont between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:50.661Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Vermont for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9339/flu-hospitalizations-for-vt-feb-13-to-feb-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Vermont for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Vermont between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:32:55.904Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-20T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9341/flu-hospitalizations-for-wy-jan-30-to-feb-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Jan 30, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Wyoming between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:33:01.033Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9342/flu-hospitalizations-for-wy-feb-13-to-feb-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Feb 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Feb 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Wyoming between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date. \nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:33:06.164Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-20T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9408/xi-no-longer-authority-of-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/) [closed] \n---[Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8533/xi-jinping-leading-china-in-2030/) \n[Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping) has been the paramount leader of China since 2012, when he became General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and later President of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 2013. In 2018, when Xi was re-elected for a second term, the National People's Congress passed a constitutional amendment abolishing the two-term limit for the presidency.\nOn 11 November 2021, the [CCP declared Xi's ideology](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/11/1054646063/china-xi-jinping-communist-party) the \"essence of Chinese culture\". This is the third fundamental resolution of the Chinese Communist Party since its inception. The first resolution was adopted in 1945 to increase and ratify the power of [Mao Zedong](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong). The decision to issue one under Xi symbolically raises him to the same level of prestige as Mao.\nWhen will Xi Jinping leave power in China?\nThis question will resolve on the date when Xi Jinping holds none of the following offices:\n---Secretary General of the Communist Party of China \n---Chairman of the Central Military Commission \n---President of the People's Republic of China \nThis may be due to any reason (coup, death, resignation, or otherwise). In the event that there is any future office of greater authority (in theory or in practice) to any of the previous offices, Xi may also be considered to \"remain in power\" if he holds such an office.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:35:22.504Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-15T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T17:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-01-04T03:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9415/hillary-clinton-to-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.\nA member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\nAs of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more.\nWill Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?\nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that on or before August 7 2024, 90 days before the election, Hillary Clinton (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. Clinton must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:35:58.754Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-07T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9422/7-day-avg-daily-cases-in-va-on-feb-11th/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at [18338](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/), the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia for February 11th, 2022 from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:36:14.336Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-16T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9424/-boosterthird-dose-in-va-on-feb-11/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Following the [recommendation](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0924-booster-recommendations-.html) by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is [increasing](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-omicron-variant) [evidence](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211220005253/en/) of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. \nAs of January 12th, 2022, [38.7%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. \nWhat will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of February 11th, 2022 from the [Summary](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:36:19.566Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-16T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9425/-boosterthird-dose-in-va-on-mar-11/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Following the [recommendation](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0924-booster-recommendations-.html) by the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on September 24th, COVID-19 booster shots have begun rolling out for millions of Americans at higher risk for COVID-19, at least 6 months after their primary series. There is [increasing](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-omicron-variant) [evidence](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211220005253/en/) of better neutralization of the Omicron variant with the mRNA booster shots. \nAs of January 12th, 2022, [38.7%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) of the fully vaccinated population in Virginia has received a booster/third dose. \nWhat will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the % of the fully vaccinated population with a booster/third dose as of March 11th, 2022 from the [Summary](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) tab of COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard maintained by the Virginia Department of Health. This will be computed by dividing the \"People Vaccinated with Booster/Third Dose\" by the count for \"People Fully Vaccinated\" and multiplying by 100.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:36:24.737Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-16T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9426/lowest-daily-case-timing-in-va-before-apr-8/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at [18338](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/), the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble [projections](https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html) are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. \nThe lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of [129](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhen will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved as the date when the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:36:29.962Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-13T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9427/lowest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-apr-8/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. As of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at [18338](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/), the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble [projections](https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html) are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. \nThe lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia since April 1st, 2020 occurred on June 20th, 2020, with the 7-day average of [129](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) cases.\nWhat will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:36:35.124Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-13T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9428/highest-daily-case-count-in-va-before-apr-8/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble [projections](https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html) are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. \nAs of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at [18338](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/), the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. \nWhat will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved using the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:36:40.257Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-13T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9430/highest-daily-case-timing-in-va-before-apr-8/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the past few weeks, case rates in [Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) have steadily climbed driven primarily by the Omicron variant. Long term forecasts are inherently difficult due to behavioral changes and possibility of novel variants. Multi-model ensemble [projections](https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html) are hinting at a steep decline of the Omicron wave in the coming months. \nAs of January 12th, 2022 the 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia is at [18338](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/), the highest so far since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. \nWhen will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?\nThe question will be resolved as the date when the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases were reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022 (both included) from the [Locality](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-locality/) tab of Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 Cases & Testing Dashboard.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:36:50.545Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-13T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9441/va-current-hospitalizations-on-feb-11/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have been [increasing](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) as a result of the ongoing Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact. \nAs of 24 August, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations is [3554](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).\nWhat will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 11, 2022?\nThis will resolve as the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" on 11th February 2022 according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the [Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:37:37.955Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-04T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-16T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will P = NP be settled?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9448/date-p--np-is-settled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[Does P = NP?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/) \n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/) \nThe [P = NP problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem) is a famous open problem in computer science, first formally stated in 1971, that is also one of the Clay Institute's [Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems). Roughly speaking, it asks whether problems whose solutions can be verified efficiently can also be solved efficiently.\nWhen will P = NP be settled?\nThis question will resolve on the date on which the Clay Institute's [Millennium Prize](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems) is awarded for either a proof or a disproof of the statement that P = NP. If no such award takes place until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:09.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Fission Power in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9450/share-of-us-energy-consumption-from-nuclear/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [share of US energy consumption](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~USA&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Annual+consumption) supplied by nuclear power grew from 0.4% in 1970 to 7.5% in 1990. However, that share has remained between 8% to 9% since 1999, while the US' total energy consumption also plateaued around 26 exawatt-hours during the same period.\nSeveral nuclear plants have been decomissioned or postponed construction after events such as the [Three Mile Island Accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident) in 1979 or the [Fukushima Accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Japanese_nuclear_accidents) in 2011. In an analysis by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser for [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-energy#nuclear-energy-and-renewables-are-far-far-safer-than-fossil-fuels), the authors found that when accounting for deaths from air pollution and in accidents from extracting resources (uranium, coal, oil), oil and coal cause 18.4 to 32.7 deaths per terawatt-hour of energy, where nuclear causes 0.07 deaths per TWh.\nMajor US lobbying organizations are opposed to nuclear power, such as [Greenpeace](https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/fighting-climate-chaos/issues/nuclear/) and the [Sierra Club](https://www.sierraclub.org/nuclear-free). [Gallup public opinion polling](https://news.gallup.com/poll/248048/years-three-mile-island-americans-split-nuclear-power.aspx) since 1994 has found generally more Americans in favor of nuclear than oppose, though in 2019 both positions had equal support.\nWhat percentage of US energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Fission Power in 2050?\nThis question will resolve as the share of US primary energy consumption which is produced by nuclear power sources in 2050, according to the [BP Statistical Review of Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). If BP no longer publishes this data, another source such as the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/nuclear) may be used.\nThis question will soley focus on energy produced through [Nuclear Fission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fission); [Nuclear Fusion Power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fusion) will be excluded.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:14.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2052-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2053-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6th Capitol attack?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9451/seditious-conspiracy-charges-for-jan-6th/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 13, 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice [released an indictment](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/13/politics/read-seditious-conspiracy-charges/index.html) of 11 members of the Oath Keepers group for seditious conspiracy in connection with the attack on the U.S. Capitol that occurred on January 6th 2021. These indictments were the first by the DOJ alleging that particular crime with regard to that event. It is unknown at this time whether any additional people will be indicted similarly.\nIn 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6th Capitol attack?\nThe number will be the count of distinct people charged in official indictments released by the Department of Justice. To qualify, the indictment must specify that the individuals are being charged with \"seditious conspiracy\", and must also make some reference to the January 6th attack on the Capitol. The number includes the people charged in the indictment released on 1/15/22, and so cannot be less than 11.\nThis is a count of people charged, not total counts charged.\nThe indictments need not charge that the individuals were present at the Capitol on that day or played any direct role in that attack. It is sufficient that the text of the seditious conspiracy indictment includes a reference to the January 6th attack.\nThe indictments must be publicly released during the year of 2022. Indictments that are created or filed in 2022 but not released during 2022 will not count. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:19.350Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9453/ecb-raises-rates-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Federal Reserve has announced raising interest rates](https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/inflation-could-lead-fed-to-hike-rates-more-than-4-times/) for the Dollar in 2022 in response to rising inflation. However, it's corresponding institution the European Central Bank (ECB) has not. The yearly inflation was nearly as high in December 2021 in the EU with [5%](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi) as in the US with [7%](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi). The [ECB considers the inflation a temporary phenomenon](https://www.ft.com/content/8e2036b9-c02e-45e8-87d8-c9d3362415f1) and expects the inflation rate to fall below the target rate of 2% within months without raising interest rates for the Euro.\nThere is political pressure to keep the interest rates for the Euro low [because of the risk that some EU member default on their debt](https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/the-euro-is-facing-a-make-or-break-year). There is counter-pressure to keep the Euro and Dollar exchange rate stable for global trade though.\nWill the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?\nIf the ECB raises their \"Fixed rate tenders Fixed rate\" higher than 0.00 before 2023-01-01, the question resolves to yes. An announcement to do so in 2023 is not sufficient. The official source is [the ECB's website](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html). [FRED provides the same data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBMRRFR) with more interactive interface.\nThe ECB also publishes a \"deposit facility\" and a \"marginal lending facility\" rate in the short-term. These are not relevant for this question.\nIn case the ECB does not exist anymore and has not raised the interest rate, the question resolves to \"no\" since no raise occured. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:24.621Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9457/eliciting-latent-knowledge-number-of-prizes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 3, 2022, [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/), of the [Alignment Research Center (ARC)](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/), posted on LessWrong offering [prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals).\nThe post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows:\nRoughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. \nELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample.\nELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report [Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_Yh-Ch2XRL8H_EpsnjrC1dwZXR37PC8/edit#heading=h.kkaua0hwmp1d).\nHere is how the post describes prize awards:\nTo win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample.\nWe’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us.\nSome retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below:\nWe’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k).\nHow many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?\nThis resolves as the number of additional cash prizes awarded for ELK proposals before June 1, 2022. Retroactive prizes currently listed would not count. New retroactive prizes would count, along with any other new prizes. The number of prizes will be counted, not the number of awardees. For example, if a single prize is awarded to a group that would count as one prizes. If one individual receives two separate cash prizes that would count as two. Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. Awards will likely be announced as an edit or comment [on the original post on LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals) or as a separate post on LessWrong.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:29.853Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T15:29:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9458/eliciting-latent-knowledge-50k-prize-awarded/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 3, 2022, [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/), of the [Alignment Research Center (ARC)](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/), posted on LessWrong offering [prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals).\nThe post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows:\nRoughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. \nELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample.\nELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report [Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_Yh-Ch2XRL8H_EpsnjrC1dwZXR37PC8/edit#heading=h.kkaua0hwmp1d).\nHere is how the post describes prize awards:\nTo win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample.\nWe’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us.\nSome retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below:\nWe’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k).\nWill an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?\nThis resolves positively if one or more $50,000 prizes are awarded before June 1, 2022, as a result of submissions to the eliciting latent knowledge proposal contest. The prize must be for work or a submission directly relating to the eliciting latent knowledge research and the [relevant LessWrong post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals). Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. If for some reason the prize is more than $50,000, but is described by ARC as being intended for the $50,000 category described in the question background, that would satisfy this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:35.720Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T15:29:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n--- \nRussian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n--- \nthe stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n--- \nRussian logistical capabilities.\nWith [Kiev](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv) being both the capital of Ukraine and approximately 380 km (240 miles) from the Russian border, reaching the city with ground forces might represent one of the more extreme outcomes in the range of possibilities. \nWill Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports. For the purposes of this question, \"entering Kiev\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kiev for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Kiev still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:40.901Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US population will have been diagnosed with myopia/nearsightedness in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9460/myopia-prevalence-in-us-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Myopia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myopia) (or nearsightedness) is a condition where distant objects appear out-of-focus, whereas objects closer to the subject remain clear (depending on the severity of the condition). The most common treatment is eyeglasses and contact lenses, though surgeries such as [LASIK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LASIK) continue to be developed. Myopia is known to be influenced by both genetic and environmental risk factors ([Bressler, 2020](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2769247))\nAccording to [Vitale, et. al](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20008719/), among individuals aged 12 to 54 years old in the US, 25.0% were found to have myopia in 1971-1972, compared to 41.6% in 1999-2004. The World Health Organization and Brien Holden Vision Institute issued [a report in 2015](https://www.who.int/blindness/causes/MyopiaReportforWeb.pdf) estimating the global prevalence of myopia at 28% in 2010, and projected an increase to 52% in 2050.\nin the blog [Atoms vs Bits](https://www.atvbt.com/2050/), Jehan wrote in January 2022: \"Most myopia (nearsightedness) will be solved preventatively without invasive intervention [by 2050]\". The author's confidence in the prediction was \"around 80%\". Jehan wrote:\nThere are strong reasons to believe that nearsightedness can be controlled environmentally. [Only 1.2%](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3930282/) of rural Nepalese children are myopic compared to 59% of East Asian 17-year olds in Australia.\n[...] I predict that this finding will become well-established and widely recognized, resulting in parenting norms that prevent the development of nearsightedness. [...] As this knowledge spreads among the educated, not needing glasses will become a class and cultural indicator, much the way straight teeth are now, which will drive adoption.\nWhat percentage of the US population will have been diagnosed with myopia/nearsightedness in 2050?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of the US population who have myopia or have been treated/cured for myopia in 2050. This figure will be estimated for all ages, races, sexes, genders, etc. The [National Institute of Health](https://www.nei.nih.gov/learn-about-eye-health/outreach-campaigns-and-resources/eye-health-data-and-statistics/nearsightedness-myopia-data-and-statistics), [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/visionhealth/basics/ced/index.html), [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/blindness/causes/MyopiaReportforWeb.pdf), or other credible academic surveys may be used as a resolution source (in that order of preference).\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:46.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2054-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will nuclear fusion provide >0.1% of the world's primary energy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9464/nuclear-fusion-power-01-of-global-energy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/) \n---[When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9465/nuclear-fusion-power-10-of-global-energy/) \nIn 2001, Nuclear Fission power plants generated a record [6.6% of the world's primary energy](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total), though total production has somewhat declined since then as the world's total energy demand has increased (as of 2019). [Nuclear Fusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power) is an entirely different physical reaction which has been actively investigated since the 1940s. Fusion power has several potential advantages over Fission power: less radioactive hazard, reduced radioactive waste products, and cheaper fuel. However, all reactor designs tested as of 2021 require more energy to operate than the amount of energy they produce.\n[Helion](https://www.helionenergy.com/) CEO David Kirtley said to [Forbes in January 2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2022/01/02/fueled-by-billionaire-dollars-nuclear-fusion-enters-a-new-age/?sh=1da1351629f3): \"In 10 years we will have commercial electricity for sale, for sure.\" In the same article, Forbes quotes [Commonwealth Fusion Systems](https://cfs.energy/) CEO Bob Mumgaard, who predicts to produce \"a working reactor in 6 years\". In November 2021, [Helion raised $500 million](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-05/thiel-backed-helion-targets-nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-by-2024) in funding, with commitments for another $1.7 billion linked to certain performance milestones. According to Bloomberg, Helion set a goal to achieve net electricity from fusion in 2024.\nIn October 2021, The [US Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49856) projected the world's total primary energy consumption to grow from 601.5 quadrillion [BTUs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_thermal_unit) in 2020 to 886.3 quadrillion BTUs in 2050. Most of that growth is expected in non-[OECD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD) asian countries. Renewable energy is expected to grow from 14.7% of the world's energy in 2020 to 26.5% in 2050, with nuclear fission projected to remain at 4% on the same period.\nWhen will nuclear fusion provide >0.1% of the world's primary energy?\nThis question will resolve on the date when at least 0.1% of Earth's annual energy consumption is produced by nuclear fusion reactors, according to the [BP statistical review of energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). If BP does not publish this data, other energy researchers such as the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/) may be consulted.\nBecause the resolution source will be reporting annual data, this question will resolve on July 1, at 00:00 UTC of the year the question resolves. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:51.241Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9465/nuclear-fusion-power-10-of-global-energy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/) \n---[When will nuclear fusion provide >0.1% of the world's primary energy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9464/nuclear-fusion-power-01-of-global-energy/) \nIn 2001, Nuclear Fission power plants generated a record [6.6% of the world's primary energy](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total), though total production has somewhat declined since then as the world's total energy demand has increased (as of 2019). [Nuclear Fusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power) is an entirely different physical reaction which has been actively investigated since the 1940s. Fusion power has several potential advantages over Fission power: less radioactive hazard, reduced radioactive waste products, and cheaper fuel. However, all reactor designs tested as of 2021 require more energy to operate than the amount of energy they produce.\n[Helion](https://www.helionenergy.com/) CEO David Kirtley said to [Forbes in January 2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2022/01/02/fueled-by-billionaire-dollars-nuclear-fusion-enters-a-new-age/?sh=1da1351629f3): \"In 10 years we will have commercial electricity for sale, for sure.\" In the same article, Forbes quotes [Commonwealth Fusion Systems](https://cfs.energy/) CEO Bob Mumgaard, who predicts to produce \"a working reactor in 6 years\". In November 2021, [Helion raised $500 million](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-05/thiel-backed-helion-targets-nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-by-2024) in funding, with commitments for another $1.7 billion linked to certain performance milestones. According to Bloomberg, Helion set a goal to achieve net electricity from fusion in 2024.\nIn October 2021, The [US Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49856) projected the world's total primary energy consumption to grow from 601.5 quadrillion [BTUs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_thermal_unit) in 2020 to 886.3 quadrillion BTUs in 2050. Most of that growth is expected in non-[OECD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD) asian countries. Renewable energy is expected to grow from 14.7% of the world's energy in 2020 to 26.5% in 2050, with nuclear fission projected to remain at 4% on the same period.\nWhen will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world's primary energy?\nThis question will resolve on the date when at least 10% of Earth's annual energy consumption is produced by nuclear fusion reactors, according to the [BP statistical review of energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). If BP does not publish this data, other energy researchers such as the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/) may be consulted.\nBecause the resolution source will be reporting annual data, this question will resolve on July 1, at 00:00 UTC of the year the question resolves. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:38:56.415Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9470/orbital-rocket-launches-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2021, there were 144 orbital launch attempts, and [133 of them](https://spacelaunchreport.com/log2021.html) were successful. Several high-profile flights were [delayed until 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_in_spaceflight#Rocket_innovation).\nHow many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?\nThe number of successful orbital launches will be determined by the [2022 Space Launch Report summary](https://spacelaunchreport.com/index.html). Only successful launches will be counted, not failures or partial failures.\nIf the Space Launch Report is not published for 2022, or appears to be grossly inaccurate, judgment may be based on alternative credible sources. If alternative sources are used, an orbital launch is one that achieves a perigee of at least 100km, regardless of how many orbits or partial orbits are completed. Direct to escape launches are included. Success will be judged based on the intended flight, and will include launch vehicle performance only, not payload performance. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:01.685Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-31T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-13T19:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "title": "How many students will complete University of Austin's 2022 \"Forbidden Courses\" program?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9473/-students-finish-uatx-forbidden-courses-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[How many students will complete University of Austin's 2022 \"Entrepreneurship and Leadership\" program?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9474/-students-finish-uatx-leadership-2022/) \nThe [University of Austin, Texas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Austin) is a university founded by Pano Kanelos, former President of [St. John's College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._John%27s_College_%28Annapolis/Santa_Fe%29). In writing in [Bari Weiss'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bari_Weiss) substack, he [criticized the social climate](https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/we-cant-wait-for-universities-to) in American universities:\nThe reality is that many universities no longer have an incentive to create an environment where intellectual dissent is protected and fashionable opinions are scrutinized. At our most prestigious schools, the primary incentive is to function as finishing school for the national and global elite. \nKanelos was quoted in November 2021 in the [Texas Tribune](https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/08/university-austin-founders-college-culture/), saying the university has raised $10 million in private donations in two months, and that in the 3 days since the public announcement, he had received more than 1,000 requests from professors to participate in the university.\nThe university's first program, called [Forbidden Courses](https://www.uaustin.org/programs), is scheduled to begin in Summer 2022. The course's description reads:\nOur Forbidden Courses summer program invites top students from other universities to join us for a spirited discussion about the most provocative questions that often lead to censorship or self-censorship in many universities. Students will become proficient and comfortable with productive disagreement. Instructors will range from top professors to accomplished business leaders, journalists, and artists.\nHow many students will complete University of Austin's 2022 \"Forbidden Courses\" program?\nThis question will resolve as the number of students who have completed University of Austin's [Forbidden Courses](https://www.uaustin.org/programs) earning a passing grade or better, according to University of Austin's public announcements. This question will include all students beginning instruction in Summer 2022; if the course is delayed, this question will include all students participating during the first semester of the \"Forbidden Courses\" program. If the course begins in Summer 2023 or later, or if the course changes significantly from its focus on \"a spirited discussion about the most provocative questions that often lead to censorship or self-censorship in many universities. Students will become proficient and comfortable with productive disagreement\" then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:12.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T06:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How many students will complete University of Austin's 2022 \"Entrepreneurship and Leadership\" program?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9474/-students-finish-uatx-leadership-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[How many students will complete University of Austin's 2022 \"Forbidden Courses\" program?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9473/-students-finish-uatx-forbidden-courses-2022/) \nThe [University of Austin, Texas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Austin) is a university founded by Pano Kanelos, former President of [St. John's College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._John%27s_College_%28Annapolis/Santa_Fe%29). In writing in [Bari Weiss'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bari_Weiss) substack, he [criticized the social climate](https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/we-cant-wait-for-universities-to) in American universities:\nThe reality is that many universities no longer have an incentive to create an environment where intellectual dissent is protected and fashionable opinions are scrutinized. At our most prestigious schools, the primary incentive is to function as finishing school for the national and global elite. \nKanelos was quoted in November 2021 in the [Texas Tribune](https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/08/university-austin-founders-college-culture/), saying the university has raised $10 million in private donations in two months, and that in the 3 days since the public announcement, he had received more than 1,000 requests from professors to participate in the university.\nThe university's second program, called the [Entrepreneurship and Leadership MA Program](https://www.uaustin.org/programs), is scheduled to begin in Fall 2022. The course's description reads:\nIn this 12-month program, UATX will recruit elite students from top schools, teach them the classical principles of leadership and market foundations, and then embed them into a network of successful technologists, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and public-policy reformers. Students will then actively apply their learning to the most urgent and seemingly intractable problems facing our society, both in the private and public sectors.\nHow many students will complete University of Austin's 2022 \"Entrepreneurship and Leadership\" program?\nThis question will resolve as the number of students who have completed University of Austin's [Entrepreneurship and Leadership MA Program](https://www.uaustin.org/programs) earning a passing grade or better, according to University of Austin's public announcements. This question will include all students beginning instruction in Fall 2022; if the course is delayed, this question will include all students participating during the first semester of the \"Entrepreneurship and Leadership\" program. If the course is delayed until Fall 2023 or later, or if the course changes significantly from its focus on teaching students \"the classical principles of leadership and market foundations, and then embed them into a network of successful technologists, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and public-policy reformers. Students will then actively apply their learning to the most urgent and seemingly intractable problems facing our society, both in the private and public sectors\" then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:17.374Z",
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- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
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- "resolution": null,
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- "resolve_time": "2023-09-01T16:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "title": "How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on binary questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9475/metaculus-prediction-vs-community/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Metaculus' FAQ](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#metaculus-prediction): \nThe Metaculus prediction is the Metaculus system's best estimate of how a question will resolve. It's based on predictions from community members, but unlike the community prediction, it's not a simple average or median. Instead, the Metaculus prediction uses a sophisticated model to calibrate and weight each user, ideally resulting in a prediction that's better than the best of the community.\nFor resolved questions predicted over the previous 365 days, the Community Prediction has a Brier score of 0.141, while the Metaculus Prediction has a Brier Score of 0.136, meaning that the Metaculus Prediction performed slightly better. \nHow much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on binary questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?\nThis question resolves as the ratio of the Brier Score of the Community Prediction to the Metaculus Prediction (both evaluated at \"all time\") over the first 365-day period starting from when the Metaculus Prediction is next updated. \nIf this were to resolve for the data for the previous 365 days, it would resolve as 0.141/0.136 ≈ 1.037, meaning that Metaculus' Brier Score is ~3.7% lower.\nIf it's not known exactly when the algorithm underpinning the Metaculus Prediction was updated, we will start the 365-day counter from when the update was first publicly announced.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:22.503Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
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- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- "title": "How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9476/metaculus-prediction-vs-community/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Metaculus' FAQ](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#metaculus-prediction): \nThe Metaculus prediction is the Metaculus system's best estimate of how a question will resolve. It's based on predictions from community members, but unlike the community prediction, it's not a simple average or median. Instead, the Metaculus prediction uses a sophisticated model to calibrate and weight each user, ideally resulting in a prediction that's better than the best of the community.\nFor resolved continuous questions predicted over the previous 365 days, the Community Prediction has a log score of 1.61, while the Metaculus Prediction has a log score of 1.60, meaning that the Community Prediction performed slightly better. \nHow much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?\nThis question resolves as the ratio of the Brier Score of the Community Prediction to the Metaculus Prediction (both evaluated at \"all time\") over the first 365-day period starting from when the Metaculus Prediction is next updated. \nIf this were to resolve for the data for the previous 365 days, it would resolve as 1.60/1.61 ≈ 0.994, meaning that Community' Log Score is ~0.6% higher.\nIf it's not known exactly when the algorithm underpinning the Metaculus Prediction was updated, we will start the 365-day counter from when the update was first publicly announced.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:27.689Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Vermont for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9478/flu-hospitalizations-for-vt-feb-27-to-mar-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Vermont for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Vermont between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:38.013Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9479/flu-hospitalizations-for-wy-feb-27-to-mar-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Wyoming between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:43.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9480/flu-hospitalizations-for-ca-feb-27-to-mar-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for California between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:48.275Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9481/flu-hospitalizations-for-ok-feb-27-to-mar-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Oklahoma between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:53.443Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9482/flu-hospitalizations-for-fl-feb-27-to-mar-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Florida between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:39:58.561Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-06T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9483/flu-hospitalizations-for-ny-feb-27-to-mar-5/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Feb 27, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 5, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for New York between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:03.768Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-06T17:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- "title": "When will Alireza Firouzja be the top FIDE-ranked chess player?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9485/alireza-firouzja-be-the-top-1-chess-player/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alireza_Firouzja):\nAlireza Firouzja (Persian: علیرضا فیروزجا, Persian pronunciation: [æliːɾezɑː fiːɾuːzˈdʒɑː]; born 18 June 2003) is an Iranian-French chess grandmaster. Since December 1, 2021, Firouzja holds the No. 2 position in the FIDE world chess rankings, and is the youngest ever 2800-rated player, beating the previous record set by Magnus Carlsen by more than five months.\n[Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) has been the top FIDE ranked player since July 1, 2011, and has held the title of [World Champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship) since 2013. After his victory in the 2021 World Championship, Carlsen [commented](https://www.chess.com/news/view/magnus-carlsen-defend-world-chess-title-alireza-firouzja): \"If someone other than Firouzja wins the Candidates Tournament, it is unlikely that I will play the next world championship match\".\nWhen will Alireza Firouzja be the top FIDE-ranked chess player?\nThis question will resolve on the date when Alireza Firouzja becomes the #1 ranked player in FIDE's [Top 100 Open rankings](https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml). It is not necessary for Firouzja to maintain this ranking for any length of time, so long as FIDE confirms that Firouzja's #1 ranking was correct (ie. not a bug or due to a disqualified or rule-breaking result).\nIf Firouzja does not reach #1 by January 1, 2035, this question will resolve as \">January 1, 2035\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:08.951Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will Magnus Carlsen no longer be the top FIDE-ranked chess player?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9486/magnus-carlsen-cease-being-the-top-1-player/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is a Norwegian chess player who has [held a #1 ranking among all FIDE players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIDE_chess_world_number_ones) since July 1, 2011. He has held the [World Championship title](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship) since 2013 and holds it currently (as of January 2022). He surpassed a rating of 2800 at 18, and a year later reached No. 1 in the FIDE world rankings, the youngest player at the time to achieve either feat. Carlsen is now 31 years old.\nWhen will Magnus Carlsen no longer be the top FIDE-ranked chess player?\nThis question will resolve on the date when Magnus Carlsen is no longer the #1 ranked player in [FIDE's Top 100 Open rankings](https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml). The period which Carlsen is not #1 may last for any length of time, so long as FIDE confirms that Carlsen's lower ranking is correct (ie. not a bug or due to a disqualified or rule-breaking result).\nIf Carlsen remains #1 until January 1, 2035, this question will resolve as \">January 1, 2035\". If Carlsen is deceased, his final ranking will be considered to remain until another player reaches a higher ranking.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:14.722Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9487/omicron-generation-interval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The generation interval is the time taken from the moment a person gets infected to the moment they infect a second person. On a population level, and as each individual typically transmits to multiple people, this forms a distribution. Along with the effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections from a single infected person), the generation interval distribution can be used to estimate the rate of transmission, forecast future infections, estimate the effectiveness of control measures, and potentially estimate the timing of an outbreak's peak and its final size.\nIf two infectious diseases have the same reproduction number but one has a shorter generation interval then case numbers for that disease will rise and fall more quickly than for a disease with longer generation intervals. Similarly, if it is wrongly assumed that two diseases have the same generation interval when one is actually shorter then estimates of the reproduction number will be biased upwards. This may result in poor quality forecasts and impact the policy interventions implemented.\n[Estimation of the generation interval is complex](https://twitter.com/sbfnk/status/1478468932155723779) as both it and the effective reproduction number may change over time, across locations, and within subpopulations. We can think of the generation interval as being composed of both an individual's infectiousness over time and their contacts with others. Both of these are likely to differ due to demographic factors (such as age) with an [individual's infectiousness](https://github.com/VirologyCharite/SARS-CoV-2-VL-paper) likely also being altered by the effectiveness of their immune system and characteristics of the disease itself. The number, and type, of contacts for infected individuals, are also likely to vary over time and this can be impacted by mitigation efforts leading to reductions in the estimated generation interval ([such as contact tracing](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.17.21266051v1)). Finally, realised generation intervals may be dependent on the transmissibility of a disease with more transmissible diseases more rapidly depleting their local networks ([such as households](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265216v1)), and local (or global) high prevalence leading to an observed [reduction due to competition effects between infectors](https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024v3).\nThere are several transmission distributions that are related to the generation time including the serial interval (which is the time between the onset of symptoms for an infector and an infectee) , and the test-to-test distribution (which similarly is the interval between the case report of an infector and an infectee). These distributions may be used as a [proxy for the generation time](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2020.0756) due to the difficulty in estimating the generation time. However, both of these measures are subject to a range of additional biases especially for pathogens that can transmit before the onset of symptoms, such as COVID-19.\nDoes Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?\nWill 3, or more, of the 5 most cited studies (available on the 1st of January 2023 that refer to the generation time/interval of Omicron in the title as returned by a Google Scholar search for generation, time or interval, and Omicron) which estimate the generation interval or a transmission distribution proxy (such as the serial interval, or the test-to-test distribution) conclude (if no conclusion is made a study will be discarded and the next most cited study included) that the mean intrinsic (or realised if not distinguished) generation interval of Omicron is shorter than that of Delta? If fewer than 5 studies are found then the majority conclusion from these studies will be used. \nQuestion composed by Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, and Sebastion Funk \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:19.858Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T22:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9491/singaporean-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:24.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9492/israeli-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003. \nWill Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:30.177Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9495/share-of-world-energy-from-nuclear-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9222/twh-of-electricity-from-nuclear-in-2030/) \n---[What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9497/share-of-world-energy-from-nuclear-in-2040/) \nThe amount of energy produced by [nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power) worldwide has grown from 220 Terawatt-hours in 1970 to 7,450 in 2005, and has [declined somewhat since](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Annual+consumption). As a share of total primary energy consumption, nuclear power peaked at 6.6% in 2001, then declined to 4.2% in 2019. Several countries have re-committed to nuclear power in recent years, with the US Democratic platform [endorsing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2020/08/23/after-48-years-democrats-endorse-nuclear-energy-in-platform/?sh=42812bfc5829) nuclear energy in 2020 and the French president Emmanuel Macron in 2021 [committing](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/macron-says-france-will-build-more-nuclear-energy-reactors-2021-11-09/) to the construction of new power plants. New reactor technology also poses [exciting research opportunities](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/02/27/136920/the-new-safer-nuclear-reactors-that-might-help-stop-climate-change/), and with it, chances for expansion.\nIn an analysis by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser for [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-energy#nuclear-energy-and-renewables-are-far-far-safer-than-fossil-fuels), the authors found that when accounting for deaths from air pollution and in accidents from extracting resources (uranium, coal, oil), oil and coal cause 18.4 to 32.7 deaths per terawatt-hour of energy, where nuclear causes 0.07 deaths per TWh.\nThe United Nations Economic Comission for Europe [in a 2020 study](https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2022-01/LCA_final-FD_0.pdf) found European Nuclear power to produce 5.1 grams of CO2-equivalent per kWh, compared to 11-37 g CO2/kWh for different installations of solar power, and 280-1,000 g CO2/kWh for different coal plant designs.\nThe US Energy Information Agency's [2021 International report](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/IEO2021_Narrative.pdf) predicted mild growth in nuclear primary energy globally, from 27.5 BTUs in 2020 to 30.9 BTUs in 2025. This growth match the world's growing total primary energy consumption of 601 BTUs in 2020 to 667 BTUs in 2025. The EIA predicted the majority of growth in nuclear power to occur in Asia, while seeing a slight decline in the Americas and in Europe.\nWhat percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?\nThis question will resolve as the share of world primary energy consumption which is produced by nuclear power sources in 2025, according to the [BP Statistical Review of Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). If BP no longer publishes this data, another source such as the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/nuclear) may be used.\nThis question will soley focus on energy produced through [Nuclear Fission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fission); [Nuclear Fusion Power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fusion) will be excluded.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:35.352Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much of France's electricity consumption will be supplied by nuclear power in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9496/french-nuclear-power-consumption-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019, France produces a larger share of its electricity (67%) from nuclear power [than any other nation](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=FRA~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Share+of+total) (the second highest share from 2019 data is Slovakia, at 54%). French President Francois Hollande [committed in 2014](https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-25674581) to reducing this share to 50% by 2025. Current French president Emmanuel Macron successfully delayed this deadline to 2035 at the beginning of his first term, beginning in 2017, but retained a commitment to downscaling nuclear generation. Now, he’s seeking re-election in 2022, and after COP-26, has [championed building new reactors](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/macron-says-france-will-build-more-nuclear-energy-reactors-2021-11-09/), in apparent defiance of the broader government’s commitment to downscaling production.\nHow much of France's electricity consumption will be supplied by nuclear power in 2035?\nThis question will resolve as as the percentage of France's total electricity consumption supplied by nuclear power in 2035, according to the [BP statistical review of energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). If BP no longer produces this data, alternative energy researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/) may be used.\nFor the purposes of this question, if France's government or territory changes significantly, \"France\" will be defined as the successor state whose political capitol is within the January 2022 boundaries of France, and who controls the largest share of French territory defined in January 2022. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:40.505Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-22T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2037-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-02T17:07:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9497/share-of-world-energy-from-nuclear-in-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9495/share-of-world-energy-from-nuclear-in-2025/) \n---[How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9222/twh-of-electricity-from-nuclear-in-2030/) \nThe amount of energy produced by [nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power) worldwide has grown from 220 Terawatt-hours in 1970 to 7,450 in 2005, and has [declined somewhat since](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Annual+consumption). As a share of total primary energy consumption, nuclear power peaked at 6.6% in 2001, then declined to 4.2% in 2019. Several countries have re-committed to nuclear power in recent years, with the US Democratic platform [endorsing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2020/08/23/after-48-years-democrats-endorse-nuclear-energy-in-platform/?sh=42812bfc5829) nuclear energy in 2020 and the French president Emmanuel Macron in 2021 [committing](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/macron-says-france-will-build-more-nuclear-energy-reactors-2021-11-09/) to the construction of new power plants. New reactor technology also poses [exciting research opportunities](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/02/27/136920/the-new-safer-nuclear-reactors-that-might-help-stop-climate-change/), and with it, chances for expansion.\nIn an analysis by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser for [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-energy#nuclear-energy-and-renewables-are-far-far-safer-than-fossil-fuels), the authors found that when accounting for deaths from air pollution and in accidents from extracting resources (uranium, coal, oil), oil and coal cause 18.4 to 32.7 deaths per terawatt-hour of energy, where nuclear causes 0.07 deaths per TWh.\nThe United Nations Economic Comission for Europe [in a 2020 study](https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2022-01/LCA_final-FD_0.pdf) found European Nuclear power to produce 5.1 grams of CO2-equivalent per kWh, compared to 11-37 g CO2/kWh for different installations of solar power, and 280-1,000 g CO2/kWh for different coal plant designs.\nThe US Energy Information Agency's [2021 International report](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/IEO2021_Narrative.pdf) predicted mild growth in nuclear primary energy globally, from 27.5 BTUs in 2020 to 33.5 BTUs in 2040. This growth would be slightly less than the world's growing total primary energy consumption of 601 BTUs in 2020 to 795 BTUs in 2040. The study predicted the majority of growth in nuclear power to occur in non-[OECD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD) Asian countries, while seeing a slight decline in the Americas and in Europe.\nWhat percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?\nThis question will resolve as the share of world primary energy consumption which is produced by nuclear power sources in 2040, according to the [BP Statistical Review of Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). If BP no longer publishes this data, another source such as the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/nuclear) may be used.\nThis question will soley focus on energy produced through [Nuclear Fission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fission); [Nuclear Fusion Power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fusion) will be excluded.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:45.668Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-22T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9510/ea-global-london-2022-rescheduled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2022](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-london-2022/) is currently scheduled for 15 - 17 April 2022 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nWill EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if EA Global London 2022 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London, UK) at the scheduled dates (15 - 17 April 2022).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:40:50.833Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-18T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9513/boris-johnson-charged-with-a-crime-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, has been accused of allowing and attending parties at 10 Downing Street which went against the rules enacted under the Coronavirus Act. He is also alleged to have lied to Parliament about this and other matters. \nSeparately, there is an [ongoing](https://goodlawproject.org/case/100m-contract/) [scandal](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59968037) regarding government awards of PPE contracts for hundreds of millions of pounds to unqualified persons who were close to the Conservative party. It is possible that offences including misconduct in public office or Bribery Act violations have been committed during this period.\nThere have been a number of additional events which have called Johnson's integrity into question, including the [allegation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56878663) that he concealed evidence from the person investigating who paid for his flat refurbishment. It is possible that he will be charged with a criminal offence over this or other matters.\nWill Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is formally charged with any criminal offence on or before 31st December 2022 (UK time). Note that he doesn't need to be convicted of an offence, only charged. If he is arrested but not charged, this question resolves negatively. \nFor purposes of this question, being formally found in contempt of parliament does not constitute being charged with a crime. \nThis question will resolve positively based on an announcement by any UK police force or the Crown Prosecution Service or any other competent authority that Boris Johnson has been formally charged with any criminal offence. It will also resolve positively if there are widespread reports in credible media that Johnson has been charged with an offence.\nIf Johnson is charged on or before 31st Dec 2022 but the announcement is not made until 2023, the question still resolves positively. I have delayed the resolve date to 8th Jan 2023 to account for this possibility. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:06.308Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-30T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-08T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9515/boris-johnson-no-longer-uk-pm/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/) [closed December 2020] \n---[Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8944/boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-june-1-2022/) \n[Background and resolution text by @[Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/101465/)]\n[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nAs of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to [reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-joined-no-10-party-during-may-2020-lockdown-say-sources). His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and [now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary)\nOn December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, [which the party had held for nearly 200 years.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102)\nConservative MPs have [reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/23/letters-no-confidence-boris-johnson-have-submitted-claim-tory/) indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party.\nWhen will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?\nThis question will resolves for the date when credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.\nNote that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and ministers [continue to hold their offices](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/) despite not being MPs.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:11.444Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-in-mariupol-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n--- \nRussian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n--- \nthe stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n--- \nRussian logistical capabilities.\n[Mariupol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol) is a strategically-important city [close to the frontlines](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51543463) in Donetsk Oblast and was captured by pro-Russian forces in May 2014 and recaptured by the Ukrainians the following month. Since then pro-Russian forces have [launched several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol#The_war_in_Donbass) on the city. \nWill Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively upon Russian troops having entered Mariupol, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Mariupol\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Mariupol for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Mariupol still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:22.006Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9519/flops-used-for-gpt-4-if-released/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many FLOPS did it take to train?\nThis resolves as the total number of FLOPS required to train GPT-4. If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:32.415Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-23T22:27:35.250000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9522/russia-invades-or-annexes-belarus-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/) [closed] \n[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire.\nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's [Democracy Index rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#By_country) is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by [Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/belarus/freedom-net/2021), and as \"moderately free\" in the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2021/countries/2021_IndexofEconomicFreedom-Belarus.pdf).\nBefore January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?\nThis question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:37.621Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9523/peloton-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_%28exercise_equipment_company%29) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization of nearly $50 billion.](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap)\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 84%, and it has been [dropped from the Nasdaq-100](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/peloton-stock-price-decline-kicked-out-nasdaq-100-index-2022-1). In January 2022, it was reported that the company [is working with consulting firm McKinsey & Co to review its cost structure and may cut some jobs.](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/peloton-reviews-cost-structure-with-mckinsey-may-cut-jobs-cnbc-2022-01-18/)\nFurther, on January 20, 2022, it was reported that Peloton is temporarily halting production of its connected fitness products as consumer demand wanes and the company looks to control costs, according to internal documents [obtained by CNBC.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html)\nWill Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\nOnly petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:43.041Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9524/israeli-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2819%2931210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.\nWill Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:48.174Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9525/singapore-first-10-on-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)\nWill Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if Singapore is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:41:53.336Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9532/china-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.\nWill China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:09.465Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9533/china-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.\nWill China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if China is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:14.644Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9534/usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.\nWill the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:19.794Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9535/usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.\nWill the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:25.029Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n[Kharkiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv) is a strategically-important city with its city limits located only about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Russian border. [According to Al-Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/20/fears-of-russian-invasion-trouble-ukraines-silicon-valley), in the event of an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv could be the first city to be attacked. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html) Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine Before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Kharkiv\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kharkiv for any length of time without the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:30.240Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9543/percentage-of-world-gdp-spent-on-war-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) \n[Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/battle-related-deaths-in-state-based-conflicts-since-1946-by-world-region) has estimated that battle-related deaths have been generally declining from 1945 to 2016, despite [world population growing](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-since-1800?country=~OWID_WRL) threefold in that period. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that [military expenditures have grown steadily](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.CD) from 1984 to 2020; however as a percentage of [world GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product), military expenditures have actually declined from 1984 at 4.18% to 2.32% in 1996, where they have remained by 2020. According to [SIPRI](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/military-expenditure-share-gdp-sipri?country=USA~OWID_WRL), the US has consistently spent more on military expenditures than the world average, and spent the more in 2021 [than any other nation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) (39% of world military spending). The second highest spender in 2021, China, spent 13% of world spending on military expenditures.\nThe [Global Peace Dividend](https://peace-dividend.org/) is an international campaign launched in 2022, endorsed by 50 [Nobel Laureates](https://peace-dividend.org/), [The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists](https://thebulletin.org/2022/01/bulletin-joins-nobel-laureates-in-call-to-redirect-military-spending/), and [Veterans for Peace](https://www.veteransforpeace.org/). The Peace Dividend [proposes](https://peace-dividend.org/the-appeal) for all nations to coordinate to reduce military spending by 2% per year for 5 years. They propose half of these reductions to be remain at the disposal of their respective governments, and half to be \"allocated to a global fund, under UN supervision, to address humanity’s grave common problems: pandemics, climate change, and extreme poverty.\" They project these savings to amount to as much as 1 trillion USD by 2030. The Peace Dividend cites the [SALT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Arms_Limitation_Talks), [START](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/START_I), and [New START](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_START) treaties as previous sucessful arms control negotiations.\nWhat percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of Earth's GDP in 2030 which is spent on military expenditures, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's [military expenditures database](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex). If SIPRI no longer provides this data or significantly changes methodology, Metaculus Admins may select an alternative source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:35.404Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-25T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-09-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the S&P 500 next surpass its record high closing price set on Jan 3 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9548/date-of-next-record-high-sp-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On January 3, 2022 the S&P 500 index closed with yet another record-high price of 4796.56. Since then it has fallen, and on Jan 1, 2022 it closed 8.3% lower than that record high.\nSome [bearish observers of the market](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/grantham-doubles-down-on-crash-call-says-selloff-has-started) predict that the 1/3/2022 high will be the last for a long time to come.\nWhen will the S&P 500 next surpass its all-time high closing price of 4796.56 on Jan 3 2022?\nThis question will resolve on the first date that the S&P 500 has a closing price greater than 4796.56, as reported by the [Wall Street Journal's online historical quotes page for the S&P](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices), or other reputable source as determined by moderators.\nThe relevant price is the end-of-day close, and intraday prices do not count. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:40.591Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-25T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-02-16T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9551/date-neuralink-implanted-in-a-live-human/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on [a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPGa_FuGPIc&ab_channel=Neuralink), demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn July 2021, it was [announced](https://neuralink.com/blog/series-c/) that the company had successfully completed its Series C fundraising round, raising $205 million in a round led by Vy Capital, with participation from Google Ventures, DFJ Growth, Valor Equity Partners, Craft Ventures, Founders Fund, and Gigafund. The company stated that the funds will be used to take Neuralink’s first product to market and accelerate the research and development of future products.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as enable a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631)\nAnimal trials have been conducted, and the company has shown that its technology has been [implanted into pigs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqbQuZOFvOQ&ab_channel=CNET) and monkeys. A video has been released of [a monkey with a Neuralink implant playing a video game.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsCul1sp4hQ&ab_channel=Neuralink)\nAs of January 2022, Neuralink has not yet implanted any of its devices in a live human. However, [Bloomberg has reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/elon-musk-s-brain-implant-company-is-inching-toward-human-trials?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business) that the company is now hiring a clinical trial director, raising the possibility of human trials in the near future.\nCEO Elon Musk [stated in December 2021 that he hoped human trials would begin in 2022.](https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/elon-musk-neuralink-implants-paralysis-b1971095.html)\nWhen will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?\nThis question resolves as the date on which a Neuralink brain-machine interface device is first implanted in a living human. The patient must not be braindead prior to the implantation procedure. It need not be considered a success (by the company or anyone else) for the question to resolve; this question resolves when it is first attempted.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:45.835Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9552/maximum-price-for-ethereum-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) is a cryptocurrency which was launched in 2015. Its [highest value reached](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/) was 4891.70 USD on November 7, 2021.\nWhat will be the maximum value (in USD) reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum price reached to trade Ethereum in USD on [Binance](https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT?layout=pro), the exchange with the highest trading volume in January 2022.\nIf Binance data is incomplete or unavailable, the following sources may be used (in descending order of preference):\n---Coinbase \n---Kraken \n---Bitfinex \n---Bitstamp \nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:50.965Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the largest Common Crawl be, in TiB, by 2032?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9553/largest-common-crawl-in-tib-by-2032/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Common Crawl](https://commoncrawl.org/) is a nonprofit that crawls the web and freely provides its archives and datasets to the public. Common Crawl's web archive consists of petabytes of data collected since 2011. It completes crawls generally every month.\nTheir November/December 2021 crawl contains 2.5 billion web pages or 280 TiB of uncompressed content, according to their [latest blog post](http://commoncrawl.org/connect/blog/). Data on their previous crawl sizes may be [found here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Crawl#History_of_Common_Crawl_data).\nWhat will the largest Common Crawl be, in TiB, by 2032?\nThis resolves as the largest monthly Common Crawl dataset, in uncompressed content, in tebibytes (TiBs) ( bytes) by January 1st, 2032. \nIf Common Crawl no longer generates dataset at roughly a monthly cadence, or is discontinued altogether, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:42:56.103Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9555/date-of-biological-attack-on-agriculture/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/251/bioagents-against-cropslivestock/) [closed] \nAlthough the intended target of biological weapons of war or terror is generally human, there is a history of development of [bioweapons against agricultural crops or livestock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agro-terrorism) going back up to a century. See [This comprehensive article](http://www.eubarnet.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Agroterrorism-Biological-Crimes.pdf). As a particularly scary example, part of the Soviet Union's extensive bioweapons program was a secret division code-named \"ecology\" that targeted livestock by developing variants of foot-and-mouth, rinderpest, swine fever, and psittacosis to infect cows, pigs, and chickens. \nRocco Casgrade published an [analysis](https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/npr/73casa.pdf) in the 2000 [Nonproliferation Review](https://nonproliferation.org/research/nonproliferation-review/), calling agroterrorism a \"high-consequences, high-probability\" event, and said \"US agencies and agricultural industries have not taken the necessary steps to prevent agroterrorist attacks.\"\nTommy Thompson, former US Secretary of Health and Human Services, [remarked in 2004](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5274022.stm), \"I, for the life of me, cannot understand why the terrorists have not attacked our food supply, because it is so easy to do\". Dean Olson gave a [report on agroterrorism](https://leb.fbi.gov/articles/featured-articles/agroterrorism-threats-to-americas-economy-and-food-supply) to the US FBI's Law Enforcement Bulletin, noting \"When American and allied forces overran al Qaeda sanctuaries in the caves of eastern Afghanistan in 2002, among the thousands of documents they discovered were U.S. agricultural documents and al Qaeda training manuals targeting agriculture.\"\nWhen will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?\nThis question will resolve on the estimated date of a biological attack against agricultural livestock or crops which results in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion in damages ([inflation adjusted to 2021 USD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL)). This attack may occur anywhere on Earth (not just the US). Damages from the attack may be estimated by government sources, international security agencies, and media reports, if Metaculus Admins determine such sources to be credible. Economic damages may include direct production losses as well as indirect losses such as decreased consumer purchasing or export restrictions.\nThe damages must be attributed to a single attack; multiple attacks/agents which sum to greater than $1 billion or 100 deaths will not qualify for resolution. For the purposes of this question, a \"biological attack\" will include any natural or engineered organisms or viruses which were believed to be deliberately released and for which agriculture was the primary target.\nTo assess the claims that the attack was deliberate and targeting agriculture, Metaculus Admins may use government sources, international security agencies, and media reports, if they determine such sources to be credible. In the case of ambiguity, Metaculus may delay resolution to obtain further evidence, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\nIf no such attack occurs between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve as \">January 1, 2100\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:01.226Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-27T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:39:48.367000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2102-01-01T23:39:48.367000Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will >50% of users access Google over IPv6?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9558/when-50-of-users-access-google-over-ipv6/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/) \n[IPv4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4) (Internet Protocol version 4) was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. There are only 2^32 IPv4 addresses and [the internet is running out of addresses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion). The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6 which has 2^128 addresses. As of January 22, 2022, 38.05% of users access Google over IPv6.\nWhen will >50% of users access Google over IPv6?\nThis question will resolve on the date when [Google's daily IPv6 statistics](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) show >50% total IPv6 adoption globally for that day. This figure should include all Google traffic in all regions/servicies. If Google no longer provides this data, another credible source of Google traffic may be used. If no such estimates exist, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf this does not occur by January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as \">January 1, 2030\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:06.497Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-24T12:23:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-25T13:23:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n--- \n[Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n[Odessa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa) or Odesa, the 3rd largest city in Ukraine, is a strategically-important city on the northwestern coast of the Black Sea, whose port receives [over 70%](https://www.joc.com/port-news/european-ports/ukraine-ports-eye-larger-share-asia-cargo_20190213.html) of Ukraine's containerized cargo and whose naval base houses the bulk of the Ukrainian Navy. \nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.\nWill Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Odessa\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Odessa for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:11.783Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-28T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9570/at-least-2c-of-warming-by-2037/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Questions on Metaculus:\n---[In which year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/first-year-of-global-temperature-above-2c/) \n---[Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) \nThis question concerns a [longbets.org](http://longbets.org) bet over the global temperature. John Mitchell and Zeke Hausfather summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/883/).\nWill the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares John Mitchell the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Zeke Hausfather the winner, then this question resolves negatively. If the bet has not been publicly resolved by the Long Now Foundation by January 1, 2040, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nThe Longbets terms are repeated below:\nJohn Mitchell will win the bet if the Berkeley Earth Global Average Temperature Anomaly with Sea Ice Temperature Inferred from Air Temperatures dataset reports an annual (January through December) temperature anomaly of over 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period on or before the published value corresponding to the calendar year 2037. Zeke Hausfather will win the bet if an annual temperature anomaly of 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period does not occur before the published calendar year 2037 value. The latest version of the Berkeley Earth global temperature dataset will be used to adjudicate this bet. The temperature anomaly with respect to 1850-1899 will be calculated by subtracting the mean of monthly temperature anomalies over that period (January 1850-December 1899) from the record reported by Berkeley Earth. In the case in which the Berkeley Earth product is discontinued, the Hadley Centre/UEA HadCRUT dataset will be used.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:27.340Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-05-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9571/when-airplane-travelers-mask-free-in-usa/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7806/when-airplane-travelers-mask-free-in-usa/) [closed] \nOn August 20th 2021, the TSA [announced](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2021/08/20/tsa-extends-face-mask-requirement-through-march-18-2022) that it would extend the mask mandate on airplanes until March 18th 2022. This deadline could, of course, be extended again.\nMask mandates have been widely introduced in response to the Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic. In most places, it is mandatory to travel with masks on airplanes, either due to the carrier (airplane operator) or due to government mandates.\nWhen will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?\nThis question will resolve on the date government mask mandates are removed for ordinary airplane passengers (not e.g. airplane staff), and at least 3 large carriers have no mask mandates. Large carriers are those in the [Group III, of which there are 18 currently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_airlines_of_the_United_States). Mandates must be removed for all travelers regardless of prior disease history and vaccination status. Any mandate requiring passengers to wear face masks will prevent this question from resolving positively; that is, the mandate may be justified for any reason, not only to prevent the transmission of COVID-19.\nIf this does not occur by January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as \"> January 1, 2030\".\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:32.498Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-30T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9573/scotus-ends-racial-preferences-in-admissions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9572/scotus-rules-harvards-admissions-unlawful/) \n[Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions) is suing Harvard, among other universities, for its race-conscious admissions policies, and has called for the abolition of racial preferences in college admissions. On January 24, 2022, the Supreme Court [granted certiorari](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/012422zor_m6io.pdf) to SFFA's suits against Harvard and the University of North Carolina, which have been merged into a single case.\nWill the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2030, the US Supreme Court rules in [SFFA v. Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._President_and_Fellows_of_Harvard_College) that the consideration of race in university admissions is no longer permissible. If the Supreme Court remands the case to a lower court, this question resolves positively if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds that racial preferences in admissions are unlawful, and litigation for this case ends before 2030. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:43.429Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9579/va-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-may/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As the current Omicron-driven wave continues, a key uncertainty is what the peak in the number of weekly confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia will be in the time through the end of April 2022. Virginia's all-time weekly peak in confirmed+probable hospitalizations was [976](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) for the week ending 9 January 2021.\nWhat will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the weekly total of confirmed+probable COVID-19 hospitalizations on the VDH [“Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard.](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) \nThe week ending 4 December 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 April 2022 is the last week covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8715/date-of-va-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-may/) related question on when this peak will be.\nThis is a re-launched version of [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8714/va-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-may/) question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:48.572Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9581/va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-may-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As the current Omicron-driven wave continues, a key uncertainty is what the peak in the number of weekly confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases in Virginia will be in the time through the end of April 2022. Virginia's all-time weekly peak in confirmed+probable cases was [118,656](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) for the week ending 8 January 2022.\nWhat will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the peak in the weekly total of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH [“Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard.](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) \nThe week ending 4 December 2021 is the first week covered by this question and the week ending 30 April 2022 is the last week covered.\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8713/date-of-va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-may/) related question on when this peak will be.\nThis is a re-launched version of [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8712/va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-may-2022/) question. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:53.743Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 31 December 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9582/will-us-troops-move-into-ukraine-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 25 January 2022, US President Joe Biden [said](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis/biden-warns-putin-with-sanctions-as-west-steps-up-ukraine-defenses-idUKKBN2K00GT), \"There is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine.\" As of January 24, 2022, [TIME reported](https://time.com/6141675/us-troops-alert-ukraine/) that 200 US troops were in the country, as members of the Florida National Guard are training Ukrainian forces. According to TIME's report:\nPentagon spokesman John Kirby said up to 8,500 U.S. service members were put on heightened alert for deployment to bolster NATO allies’ eastern defenses should Russia invade. The forces would not be sent to Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, nor take part in any combat roles, Kirby said, but rather serve as reinforcements in places like Poland or Romania to reassure U.S. allies and deter Russian aggression.\nBefore December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?\nThis question will resolve positively if American troops have been moved into Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"moving into Ukraine\" requires a total of at least 10,000 US troops, wearing US military insignia and under the American banner, being in the territory of Ukraine at a given moment.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:43:58.871Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9584/kbj-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Ketanji Brown Jackson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketanji_Brown_Jackson), born September 14, 1970, is an American attorney and jurist serving as a United States circuit judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. She was a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia from 2013 to 2021.\nIt has been [speculated](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) that President Joe Biden could nominate Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur. \nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.\nWill Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:04.045Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9585/l-kruger-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Leondra Reid Kruger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leondra_Kruger), born July 28, 1976, is an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California and a former Obama administration official.\nIt has been [speculated](https://twitter.com/JeffreyToobin/status/1483197268828295170) that President Joe Biden could nominate Kruger to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur.\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.\nWill Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Leondra Kruger is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:09.192Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9587/nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[What percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9588/-of-exhibitors-with-nfts-at-art-basel-2030/) \n[Non-Fungible Tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFTs) are unique tokens which store data on decentralized, cryptographically-secured [blockchains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain). These tokens can record changes of ownership and prices paid for transfers. NFTs have become increasingly popular in the art collector community as a means of establishing provenance for digital artworks.\n[Art Basel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_Basel) is the world’s premier venue for contemporary art, including new-media and digital art. In 2021, all three of the Art Basel fairs (Miami Beach, Hong Kong, and Basel) featured NFTs. They were especially prominent at Art Basel Miami Beach, November 30 - December 4, 2021. \nWill at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?\nThis question will resolve positively if any work presented at Art Basel in 2030 is available for sale as a [Non-Fungible Token](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFT). Art presented at any of the 2030 Art Basel fairs (Basel, Miami Beach, Hong Kong) will be sufficient to resolve the question. A \"Non-Fungible Token\" for the purposes of this question will include any unique token which can be exchanged and recorded on a [cryptographic blockchain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain) (that is, not just restricted to [ERC-721](http://erc721.org/) or [Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum)-based NFT systems). Resolution may come from official announcements by Art Basel, credible media reports, or public blockchain data.\nIf no events are held by Art Basel in 2030, resolution may include events in 2031. If there are no such events by Art Basel between January 1, 2030 to January 1, 2032, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:14.329Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9588/-of-exhibitors-with-nfts-at-art-basel-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related Question on Metaculus:\n---[Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9587/nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030/) \n[Non-Fungible Tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFTs) are unique tokens which store data on decentralized, cryptographically-secured [blockchains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain). These tokens can record changes of ownership and prices paid for transfers. NFTs have become increasingly popular in the art collector community as a means of establishing provenance for digital artworks.\n[Art Basel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_Basel) is the world’s premier venue for contemporary art, including new-media and digital art. In 2021, all three of the Art Basel fairs (Miami Beach, Hong Kong, and Basel) featured NFTs. They were especially prominent at Art Basel Miami Beach, November 30 - December 4, 2021. \nWhat percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of exhibitors at Art Basel's Basel, Switzerland fair in 2030 who offer the sale of at least one [Non-Fungible Token](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFT). A \"Non-Fungible Token\" for the purposes of this question will include any unique token which can be exchanged and recorded on a [cryptographic blockchain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain) (that is, not just restricted to [ERC-721](http://erc721.org/) or [Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum)-based NFT systems). Resolution may come from official announcements by Art Basel, credible media reports, or public blockchain data.\nIn the event that there is no Basel, Switzerland fair by Art Basel in 2030, this question will resolve for an alternative Art Basel fair, in this order of preference:\n---Miami Beach, Florida (2030) \n---Hong Kong (2030) \n---Basel, Switzerland (2031) \n---Miami Beach, Florida (2031) \n---Hong Kong (2031) \n---The largest art fair held by Art Basel in 2030 or 2031 \nIf there are no such art fairs by Art Basel between January 1, 2030 to January 1, 2032, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:19.466Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9590/pi-covid-19-variant-by-pi-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In honor of the [mathematical constant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi) that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as [Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day) by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.\nPi is also the [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the [World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times.\nWill there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?\nThis resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"pi\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about the next named variant using Pi Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter pi and goes straight to rho (or sigma, tau...) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:29.917Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-15T14:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9591/tau-variant-by-tau-day-628/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tau (τ) is proposed as a circle constant, the ratio of a circle's circumference by its radius; its value, 6.283185..., is twice that of the [most commonly used constant, π](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi).\nIn honor of half-tau, March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Some even more delightfully pedantic geeks, who contend that pi is wrong and want a pretext to eat twice as much pie, propose [tau day](https://tauday.com/) as a celebration on June 28 (6/28).\nTau is also a [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after ο, π, ρ, σ, which suggests it could be the name of a future named variant of SARS-COV-2 [declared by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, ν and ξ, have been skipped so far.\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times. Beta and Gamma had some minor impact, and the others don't seem to have been very noteworthy - Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda and Mu.\nWill there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?\nThis question will resolve positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"tau\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by June 28, 2022.\nThe point of the question is to predict about a future named variant using Tau Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter tau and goes straight to upsilon (or phi, chi...) \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:35.113Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-12T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-29T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9592/altos-labs-trials-an-anti-aging-intervention/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2006, Shinya Yamanaka [discovered](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_pluripotent_stem_cell) that mature cells can be reprogrammed into pluripotent stem cells by the induction of four proteins, which are now called the Yamanaka factors. The discovery [earned him](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2012/summary/) the 2012 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, together with Sir John B. Gurdon. \nIn 2010, [it was suggested](https://twitter.com/ArtirKel/status/1483839966954201089) that a similar process could be used to rejuvenate old tissue, without necessarily turning it into pluripotent stem cells. And indeed, reprogramming with Yamanaka factors has been [shown](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6351826/) to reverse epigenetic aging, even in [very old](http://genesdev.cshlp.org/content/25/21/2248.short) and [senescent](https://nintil.com/reversible-senescence/) cells. \nUnfortunately, though, reprogramming in vivo [was found in 2013](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12586) to lead to the formation of several teratomas and embryo-like structures. \nBut tweaking the technique a bit was [was later shown, in 2016](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674%2816%2931664-6), to extend the life of progeroid mice, and then in 2020, to [improve the health](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213671120303854) and [reverse vision loss](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2975-4) of wildtype mice.\nIn January 19, 2022, Altos Labs [announced itself](https://altoslabs.com/) as \na new biotechnology company focused on cellular rejuvenation programming to restore cell health and resilience, with the goal of reversing disease to transform medicine.\nThey're starting out [with $3B in funding](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/altos-labs-launches-with-the-goal-to-transform-medicine-through-cellular-rejuvenation-programming-301463541.html?tc=eml_cleartime), some of which [seems to have come from Jeff Bezos](https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/04/1034364/altos-labs-silicon-valleys-jeff-bezos-milner-bet-living-forever/). Altos has Yamanaka and other Nobel laureates as scientific advisors and board members, and several former tenured professors as principal investigators. Many of those are authors of seminal cellular reprogramming papers or epigenetic aging clock experts.\nWhen will Altos Labs first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans?\nThis question will resolve on the date when Altos Labs first registers and is responsible for a clinical trial on the treatment of [biomarkers or symptoms of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomarkers_of_aging). This date will be determined via the \"First Posted\" date on the clinical trial's [clinicaltrials.gov](http://clinicaltrials.gov) webpage, or if that data is unavailable, any credible source can be used to determine when the trial was first registered.\nIf Altos Labs has no such trial by January 1, 2038, this question will resolve as \">January 1, 2038\".\nIf Altos Labs changes its name, then the new organization will be used for resolution. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:40.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-12-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US break up Meta Platforms?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9597/date-meta-faces-antitrust-violations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Facebook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_Platforms) has used [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230) of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 to shield itself from lawsuits, same as other Big Tech companies; but it has been on the receiving end of a massive amount of criticism because of various practices, and suspicions that political actors use the platform to spread political misinformation. \nIn October 2021, a Facebook whistle-blower accused the company of various misdeeds, fueling widespread concerns about its power and influence over U.S. public discourse. As judge James Boasberg [rejected federal antitrust complaints](https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-judge-tells-ftc-file-new-complaint-against-facebook-2021-06-28/) against Facebook in June 2021, he left the door open for refiling anti-trust complaints against the company – and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [duly refiled in August](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/ftc-files-new-antitrust-complaint-against-facebook.html), looking to keep the case open. \nThe emergent theory at the FTC is that dominant tech companies could be bad even if they don't raise prices for consumers, because they may have excessive social, political and economic power, a view that has been [openly defended](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-29/facebook-victory-against-the-ftc-is-an-antitrust-lesson-in-monopoly-power-kqi8jeku) by FTC chairman Lina Khan. \nThere is a clear threat that Facebook ends up forced to spin off one of its valuable properties, amid all the unrest around Section 230 and Big Tech power. The question is how elevated this threat is.\nWhen will the US break up Meta Platforms?\nThis question will resolve on the date that Meta Platforms has divested ownership of any or all of [Facebook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook), [Instagram](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instagram), [WhatsApp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WhatsApp), or [Oculus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oculus_%28brand%29), due to an order by a branch of the US Federal Government (such as the [Federal Trade Comission](https://www.ftc.gov/) or the Department of Justice's [Antitrust Division](https://www.justice.gov/atr)). Divestment must be complete within 3 years of the order in order to qualify for resolution. This question will also resolve in the event that, by order of the federal government, a component of a Meta company is broken off into an independent company (such as separating Facebook's news department from Facebook, or Instagram's image hosting from the social network). Credible media reports, corporate statements by Meta or reports from the FTC may qualify as resolution sources.\nIf Facebook faces no antitrust violations by January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as \">January 1, 2030\".\nIf Meta has voluntarily divested or sold any of the 4 companies above, or if any of the 4 have dissolved / no longer exist, this question will still resolve if the US Government orders the split of any of the remaining companies. If Meta is merged or bought by any other company, that parent/merger company will be recognized as \"Meta\" for the purposes of this question. If none of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, or Oculus are owned by the same company (not due to an order from the US government) before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:45.407Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9609/orb%25C3%25A1n-wins-2022-hungarian-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is [United for Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_for_Hungary), which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by [Péter Márki-Zay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_M%C3%A1rki-Zay), a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition.\nWill Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?\nThis question will resolve positively if Viktor Orbán is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly following their next Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for April 3, 2022.\nIn the case that no elections are held between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:44:55.724Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-09T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9612/joe-rogan-leaves-spotify/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Several musicians and podcast producers have recently [cut ties with Spotify](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2022/01/31/spotify-wont-pull-joe-rogan--but-comedian-open-to-change-and-even-issued-apology-to-neil-young/?sh=171804ba5c2e), insisting that Spotify ban or censor Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience. Spotify's stock price [has fallen](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPOT:NYSE) from January 1 to January 30 2022, although it [rebounded](https://www.reuters.com/technology/spotify-says-it-will-add-content-advisory-podcasts-that-discuss-covid-2022-01-31/) following a public apology from Rogan.\nWill Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?\nThis question will resolve positively if Joe Rogan formally stops publishing a podcast on Spotify any time between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023. This would include Rogan moving to a different platform, getting banned from Spotify, or voluntarily ending his podcast. Public statements by Rogan or Spotify will qualify as a resolution source.\nIn the case of ambiguity, if there are any episodes of a Joe Rogan podcast uploaded during January 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:45:00.911Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9624/flu-hospitalizations-for-fl-mar-13-to-mar-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Florida for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Florida between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:45:22.152Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-01-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-14T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-02T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9681/flu-hospitalizations-for-ny-mar-13-to-mar-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in New York for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for New York between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:48:35.027Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T11:09:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-14T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-02T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9682/flu-hospitalizations-for-wy-mar-13-to-mar-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Wyoming for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Wyoming between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:48:40.178Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T11:05:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-14T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-02T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9683/flu-hospitalizations-for-ok-mar-13-to-mar-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in Oklahoma for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for Oklahoma between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:48:45.299Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T11:01:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-14T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-02T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9684/flu-hospitalizations-for-ca-mar-13-to-mar-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza is an indicator of the overall burden of influenza in the United States and predictions of confirmed hospitalizations can help public health planning and interventions.\nWhat will the total number of confirmed hospitalizations due to influenza be in California for the week starting Sunday Mar 13, 2022 and ending on Saturday Mar 19, 2022?\nThis question will resolve based on the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations for California between the start date and end date as reported in the confirmed influenza admission dataset under the field name previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed. This field is described in detail in [Field #34](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) of the [COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs For Hospitals, Hospital Laboratory, and Acute Care Facility Data Reporting](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf)) from the [COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh) dataset. Note that the field previous_day_admission_influenza_confirmed counts the number of hospitalizations due to influenza on the day previous to when it is reported. When resolved, we will adjust this field to count the number of hospitalizations from the start date to the end date. This question will be resolved based on data 2 weeks after the end date.\nPlots of state-by-state hospitalizations can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/FluHospPlot)\n",
- "options": [],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:48:50.417Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2022-02-02T10:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-14T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-02T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 213 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-213-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 213,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9771326708792260702222626789919908",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.02286732912077392977773732100800922",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "51",
- "liquidity": "835.86",
- "tradevolume": "1182.82",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 400,000 on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-400000-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 400,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05129581948342495065682898515650233",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9487041805165750493431710148434977",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "591.67",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. annual inflation on January 2022 exceed 7.0%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-annual-inflation-on-january-2022-exceed-7p0",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), for the 12 months ending January 2022. The inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, for all items) before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 7.0% from January 2021 to January 2022 and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on February 10 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote, that this market refers to the all items index increase for the 12 month period, before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote, that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 5.8%, 6.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7426029478535643429209167863980943",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2573970521464356570790832136019057",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "47",
- "liquidity": "3707.74",
- "tradevolume": "2499.24",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 1,000,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-1000000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 1,000,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0006183794093261411144463932645462147",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9993816205906738588855536067354538",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "93",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "2692.71",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 400,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-400000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 400,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9987995959764496505588051333476854",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.001200404023550349441194866652314631",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "182",
- "liquidity": "300.37",
- "tradevolume": "3598.24",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2556898621704412336889538171054431",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7443101378295587663110461828945569",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "liquidity": "819.34",
- "tradevolume": "3043.87",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by July 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-july-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0851191273079997626279976064805998",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9148808726920002373720023935194002",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "35",
- "liquidity": "1002.28",
- "tradevolume": "904.78",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will “Jackass Forever” gross domestically more than $30 million on the opening weekend?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jackass-forever-gross-domestically-more-than-30-million-on-the-opening-weekend",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on how much 'Jackass Forever' (to be released on February 4, 2022) will gross domestically on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11466222/ will resolve this market when checked on February 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Jackass Forever' grossed domestically more than $30,000,000.00, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1791154672028145432937152599606484",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8208845327971854567062847400393516",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "liquidity": "733.80",
- "tradevolume": "940.48",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro win 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jair-bolsonaro-win-2022-presidential-elections-in-brazil",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Jair Bolsonaro is announced the winner of the 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, this market will resolve to “No”. If the first round of elections is held in 2022, but the runoff occurs after 2022 - it still will be considered for this market.\n—-\nThe President and Vice President of Brazil are elected as a joint ticket using the two-round system. The first round of elections is scheduled to take place on 2 October 2022.\nThe candidate who receives more than 50% of the total valid votes in the first round is elected. If the 50% threshold is not met by any candidate, the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round participate in a second round of voting, scheduled for 30 October 2022, and the candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.\nThis market will resolve based on credible media sources reports and official info from The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil https://www.tse.jus.br/, as soon as the winner of the elections is decided. Please note, in certain circumstances the resolution of this market might be delayed in order to wait for further official, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve possible ambiguities or uncertainties.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2407294688238810060789401177242248",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7592705311761189939210598822757752",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "42",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "482.10",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will RabbitHole airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-rabbithole-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if RabbitHole will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3251135161696994147413993687798559",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6748864838303005852586006312201441",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "61",
- "liquidity": "508.95",
- "tradevolume": "3060.65",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by February 21st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-february-21st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by February 21st, 2022. If Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before February 21st, 2022, 11:59pm ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by February 21, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1933285131181775929614904279148827",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8066714868818224070385095720851173",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "851",
- "liquidity": "20562.29",
- "tradevolume": "182751.20",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $4.25 billion in volume in January 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-425-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $4,250,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $4.25b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9979121116346064362778288211669881",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.00208788836539356372217117883301194",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "224",
- "liquidity": "189.26",
- "tradevolume": "27886.72",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will annual inflation in the European Union be 5.7% or more in January?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-annual-inflation-in-the-european-union-be-5p7-or-more-in-january",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from January 2021 to January 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in January 2022 is 5.7 percent or more and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators.\n\nThe next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for January 2022 is scheduled for February 23.\n\n-----------------------------------\n\nNote, that this market is about the inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €).\n\nInflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05751519383994702644258709188398117",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9424848061600529735574129081160188",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "4",
- "liquidity": "399.08",
- "tradevolume": "241.71",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Georgia?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-georgia",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Georgia U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Georgia U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.4167965673732732635193023353639998",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.5832034326267267364806976646360002",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "13",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "897.69",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-by-december-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will have a live token by December 31st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \n\nHaving a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf OpenSea has a live token by December 31st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5250903489877533135621958240147896",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4749096510122466864378041759852104",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "18",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "303.95",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/from-nate-silver-will-there-be-a-federal-mask-requirement-on-us-domestic-flights-on-november-8-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market about whether there will be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022, posited by Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1476930984931168276?s=21.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if on November 8, 2022, all ordinary domestic airplane travellers are required by law to wear a mask that completely covers the mouth and nose while using airplane transportation. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor this market to resolve to “Yes”, the mandate must be issued by a federal agency, such as the CDC or TSA - not solely by airplane companies.\n\nPlease note, if there is a mask mandate that is applicable to all ordinary passengers but vaccinated people, it will NOT be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes.”\n\nNote also that the mask mandates in question do not have to be due to COVID-19. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4260267588259354057787644928270408",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5739732411740645942212355071729592",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "132",
- "liquidity": "3450.85",
- "tradevolume": "10418.21",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Bernard Arnault or Jeff Bezos?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-bernard-arnault-or-jeff-bezos",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Bernard Arnault (& family) or Jeff Bezos. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bernard Arnault",
- "probability": "0.6651204223111256490519081947954735",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Bezos",
- "probability": "0.3348795776888743509480918052045265",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "liquidity": "3300.00",
- "tradevolume": "4577.55",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bernard Arnault, Jeff Bezos"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'The Batman' get 90% or higher Tomatometer Score?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-batman-get-90-or-higher-tomatometer-score",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, as checked on the resolution date, the 'The Batman' movie will be given 90% or higher Tomatometer rating at Rotten Tomatoes, and 'No' otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source (Tomatometer All Critics Score rating at Rotten Tomatoes' movie profile: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_batman) for this market will be checked on the resolution date - March 7 2022 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\n---------------\n\n'The Batman' will be released worldwide in theaters on March 4.\n\nRotten Tomatoes' Tomatometer is the percentage of all Approved Tomatometer Critics who have given this movie a positive review.\n\n---------------\n\nIf for any reason the resolution data is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 12 hours, until the actual data is available.\n\nIf the data is not available on the resolution source by March 14 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5319528517837582511083430763188422",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4680471482162417488916569236811578",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "31",
- "liquidity": "500.00",
- "tradevolume": "515.87",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Valerie Pecresse win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-valerie-pecresse-win-the-2022-french-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Valerie Pecresse is the winner of the 2022 French Presidential election.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that if no election occurs in 2022, then all brackets will resolve “No”.\nThe first round of the 2022 French presidential election will be held on 10 April 2022. Should no candidate win a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates on 24 April 2022.\nThe main resolution sources for this market will be https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/ and https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/, however credible media reports will also be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1602011294352475486137075186397655",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8397988705647524513862924813602345",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "19",
- "liquidity": "306.05",
- "tradevolume": "342.84",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an earthquake measuring 8.0 or above occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-an-earthquake-measuring-80-or-above-occur-anywhere-on-earth-before-june-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occurs on Earth between January 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET) and June 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET), as measured by the U.S. Geological Survey. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the resolution source lists 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher anywhere on earth for that period. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). To access the data, one must choose the earthquake they are looking for from the list then open its individual page, then open its “Origin” detailed data. The URLs of such pages are usually formatted as follows: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/%5B_CATALOGNUMBER_%5D/origin/detail\n\nSpecifically, the number next to the magnitude (regardless of the uncertainty level and of the scale used) and the origin time at the “Origin” page of each earthquake in question will be used.\n\nPlease note, only earthquakes with “REVIEWED” origin status will be considered. The last data check will be done on June 7th, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2098290994384693725778669383993852",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7901709005615306274221330616006148",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "9",
- "liquidity": "868.55",
- "tradevolume": "356.01",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on September 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-september-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on September 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. \n\nIf, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". \n\nThe resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03086436298929250585191971166451223",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9691356370107074941480802883354878",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "725.44",
- "tradevolume": "1245.02",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'The Batman' gross $120 million or less on the opening weekend in the USA?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-batman-gross-120-million-or-less-on-the-opening-weekend-in-the-usa",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "'The Batman' is an upcoming American superhero film based on the DC Comics character Batman. \n\nThis is a market on how much 'The Batman' (to be released on March 4, 2022) will gross domestically (in the USA) on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl67732993/ will resolve this market when checked on March 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'The Batman' grossed less than or equal to $120,000,000, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.172069186820618253582382417748883",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.827930813179381746417617582251117",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "20",
- "liquidity": "1433.10",
- "tradevolume": "418.77",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 219 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-219-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 219,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.02567018081679637261822384914191154",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9743298191832036273817761508580885",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "39",
- "liquidity": "799.94",
- "tradevolume": "1481.85",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 41.7% or more on February 9?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-fivethirtyeight-approval-rating-be-41p7-or-more-on-february-9",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if Joe Biden's approval rating by FiveThirtyEight will be equal to or more than 41.7% for the day of February 9 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator,\nhttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution data will be checked on February 10 2022 according to data published for February 9.\n\nIf for any reason the resolution source is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until the rating for the resolution date is available. If the rating is still not available on the resolution source a week later or Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. \nPlease note, that the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3727383611375572961076734309015238",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6272616388624427038923265690984762",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "1429.25",
- "tradevolume": "315.03",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Zora airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zora-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Zora will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3449832559651047730234552012046142",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6550167440348952269765447987953858",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "52",
- "liquidity": "2502.18",
- "tradevolume": "2593.46",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in New Mexico?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-new-mexico",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Also, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 New Mexico U.S. Gubernatorial election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the winning candidate is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.720121464882548083612841562541489",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.279878535117451916387158437458511",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "5",
- "liquidity": "1113.05",
- "tradevolume": "224.00",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 6 2023?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-january-6-2023",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on January 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. \n\nIf, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". \n\nThe resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06540485536556517567679397065541863",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9345951446344348243232060293445814",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "61",
- "liquidity": "867.20",
- "tradevolume": "2108.81",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 50,000 on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-50000-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 50,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9497134972581654163213617510240643",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.05028650274183458367863824897593571",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "24",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "694.98",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will UST (TerraUSD) lose its peg by March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ust-terrausd-lose-its-peg-by-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of TerraUSD (UST) as shown on Coingecko is below $0.90 for 5 or more continuous hours within the market timeframe, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market timeframe spans from January 28 2022 (12:00:00 PM ET) to the resolution time, March 1 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). The resolution source for this market will be https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-usd, and if unavailable, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terrausd/.\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick high prices will be used. \"Continuously for 5 hours\" means all 30 minute candles during the 5 hour timeframe must have high (\"H:\") prices lower than $0.900000.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06763388076986580526683375441840709",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9323661192301341947331662455815929",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "175",
- "liquidity": "23331.07",
- "tradevolume": "54050.82",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q1 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied, or when the data for Q1 2022 is released.\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.08543301504185874100219307481546249",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9145669849581412589978069251845375",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "49",
- "liquidity": "2733.34",
- "tradevolume": "1598.55",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ethereum dip below $2000 by March 1?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-dip-below-2000-by-march-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Ethereum (ETH) falls below $2000.00 as per Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum) at any time within the market time frame, and “No” otherwise. \n\nThe market time frame spans from January 31 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET) to March 1 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET).\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick low prices will be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1858653588005067040902424880708618",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8141346411994932959097575119291382",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "12",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "395.81",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Warren Buffett or Sergey Brin?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-warren-buffett-or-sergey-brin",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Warren Buffett or Sergey Brin. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Warren Buffett",
- "probability": "0.4219088411105100743195985937680114",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sergey Brin",
- "probability": "0.5780911588894899256804014062319886",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "38",
- "liquidity": "3300.00",
- "tradevolume": "1896.49",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Warren Buffett, Sergey Brin"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 600,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-600000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 600,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0006420755037056762465011232364603236",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9993579244962943237534988767635397",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "171",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "13815.09",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q3 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q3-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q3 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q3 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2735199212191628982675576690211797",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7264800787808371017324423309788203",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "25",
- "liquidity": "2518.89",
- "tradevolume": "600.18",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will The Joe Rogan Experience episode featuring Robert Malone still be available on Spotify on March 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-joe-rogan-experience-episode-featuring-robert-malone-still-be-available-on-spotify-on-march-31-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "Joe Rogan has experienced backlash in the press for hosting a variety of individuals on his podcast who do not share popular scientific consensus opinions on the COVID-19 vaccine’s efficacy, and who challenge public policies aimed at fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Several famous artists (Neil Young, Joni Mitchell) have left Spotify as a response, prompting Spotify and Joe Rogan to each release independent statements on how they intend to improve the accuracy of content released.\n\nEpisode #1757 of The Joe Rogan Experience was released in December 2021 and features Dr. Robert Malone, MD. Statements made during this episode in particular, in conjunction with statements made during prior episodes, prompted widespread celebrity outcry.\n\nThis market asks whether episode #1757 of The Joe Rogan Experience, featuring Dr. Robert Malone, will still be available to stream over Spotify in the United States on March 31, 2022, 12:00:00 PM ET. If episode #1757 is available for streaming on Spotify on the resolution time, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the episode is edited in any way but remains available for streaming on the settlement time, this market will still resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be spotify.com and the Spotify streaming platform. If the Spotify streaming platform is experiencing downtime or otherwise unavailable at the resolution time the streaming platform will be checked daily for two weeks following the resolution of this question until an answer can be established. If Spotify remains down or unavailable this market will resolve to 50-50. If Spotify goes out of business before resolution time, this question will resolve to “No”.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9552464529458150955841379439262168",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.04475354705418490441586205607378316",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "22",
- "liquidity": "408.25",
- "tradevolume": "1898.05",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hillary Clinton win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1440999038730176751768368919698672",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8559000961269823248231631080301328",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "17",
- "liquidity": "1503.10",
- "tradevolume": "3354.48",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Vermont?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-vermont",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Vermont U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Vermont U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.9327138382242995633972380659894941",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.06728616177570043660276193401050591",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "10",
- "liquidity": "370.20",
- "tradevolume": "1080.55",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bored Ape Yacht Club airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-ape-yacht-club-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6216577903892111853591595721228427",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3783422096107888146408404278771573",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "94",
- "liquidity": "923.71",
- "tradevolume": "20859.80",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the next nominee for Supreme Court Justice?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kamala-harris-be-the-next-nominee-for-supreme-court-justice",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris will be the first nominee for the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) seat being vacated by Justice Stephen Breyer. If Kamala Harris is the next nominee to the SCOTUS before January 1, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no nominee to SCOTUS is chosen before the settlement date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nUpon any SCOTUS nomination made by POTUS this question will resolve, regardless of whether that nominee is later confirmed to become a Justice of the Supreme Court.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official statements released by The White House of the United States on its website (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/), and from verified or official media releases made by POTUS.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.02961428758971367416508021945020062",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9703857124102863258349197805497994",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "11",
- "liquidity": "1420.00",
- "tradevolume": "134.58",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-italy-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-france-and-spain-on-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Italy has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1183617693117227423400914798090316",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8816382306882772576599085201909684",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "liquidity": "1143.11",
- "tradevolume": "1821.19",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-emmanuel-macron-win-the-2022-french-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Emmanuel Macron is the winner of the 2022 French Presidential election.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that if no election occurs in 2022, then all brackets will resolve “No”.\nThe first round of the 2022 French presidential election will be held on 10 April 2022. Should no candidate win a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates on 24 April 2022.\nThe main resolution sources for this market will be https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/ and https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/, however credible media reports will also be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7331955162735562990820105752751811",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2668044837264437009179894247248189",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "42",
- "liquidity": "1063.17",
- "tradevolume": "978.76",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by April 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-april-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time April 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06046749999977687828608082217317124",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9395325000002231217139191778268288",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "97",
- "liquidity": "841.25",
- "tradevolume": "1285.17",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Frog Nation DAO vote to remove Sifu as Wonderland’s treasury manager?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-frog-nation-dao-vote-to-remove-sifu-as-wonderlands-treasury-manager",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” If Frog Nation DAO votes to remove Sifu as Wonderland’s Treasury Manager, and “No” otherwise. If the vote is not concluded by February 15, 2022, the market will resolve to 50/50. \n\nThe resolution source is https://snapshot.org/#/bestfork.eth/proposal/0x8f974b76d4f50ea26a1f44843dcda2e0f6a4736883968b29996d272b86b447a9. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9999106566462401392185820414112295",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.00008934335375986078141795858877047067",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "18",
- "liquidity": "10.00",
- "tradevolume": "1329.24",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'Cobra Kai: Season 4' be the #1 Netflix show worldwide on the week ending January 30?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-cobra-kai-season-4-be-the-1-netflix-show-worldwide-on-the-week-ending-january-30",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the 'Cobra Kai: Season 4' will hold the number one spot on Netflix’s Weekly Global Top 10 list for the week ending on January 30 2022. \n\nThe resolution source will be the official statistic portal of Netflix (https://top10.netflix.com/), under 'Global Top 10' for the week January 24 - January 30, 2022'. Both 'TV (English)' and 'TV (Non-English)' top lists will be checked, and the number of hours viewed for each of the titles will be compared.\n\nIf 'Cobra Kai: Season 4' is ranked #1 for the aforementioned week in terms of hours viewed including TV (English) and TV (Non-English), this market will resolve to 'Yes'. Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No.' \n\nThe resolution source will be checked on February 2, 12 PM ET. If the resolution data is unavailable, the source will be checked every 24 hours until the data is available, and the most recent data will be used to resolve the market. If two weeks later the data is still unavailable, this market resolves 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.002904288642304947008159092238556487",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9970957113576950529918409077614435",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "38",
- "liquidity": "100.00",
- "tradevolume": "1636.37",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'Ozark: Season 4' be the #1 Netflix show worldwide on the week ending January 30?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ozark-season-4-be-the-1-netflix-show-worldwide-on-the-week-ending-january-30",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the 'Ozark: Season 4' will hold the number one spot on Netflix’s Weekly Global Top 10 list for the week ending on January 30 2022. \n\nThe resolution source will be the official statistic portal of Netflix (https://top10.netflix.com/), under 'Global Top 10' for the week January 24 - January 30, 2022'. Both 'TV (English)' and 'TV (Non-English)' top lists will be checked, and the number of hours viewed for each of the titles will be compared.\n\nIf 'Ozark: Season 4' is ranked #1 for the aforementioned week in terms of hours viewed including TV (English) and TV (Non-English), this market will resolve to 'Yes'. Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No.' \n\nThe resolution source will be checked on February 2, 12 PM ET. If the resolution data is unavailable, the source will be checked every 24 hours until the data is available, and the most recent data will be used to resolve the market. If two weeks later the data is still unavailable, this market resolves 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.00315703774822616763828263002644761",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9968429622517738323617173699735524",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "134",
- "liquidity": "364.75",
- "tradevolume": "2857.30",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 211 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-211-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 211,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9841966337860442213392526047336804",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.01580336621395577866074739526631957",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.141Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "34",
- "liquidity": "668.87",
- "tradevolume": "961.15",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will annual inflation in the European Union be 5.3% or more in January?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-annual-inflation-in-the-european-union-be-5p3-or-more-in-january",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from January 2021 to January 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in January 2022 is 5.3 percent or more and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators.\n\nThe next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for January 2022 is scheduled for February 23.\n\n-----------------------------------\n\nNote, that this market is about the inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €).\n\nInflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6569411172952075665475047036959835",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3430588827047924334524952963040165",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "34",
- "liquidity": "500.00",
- "tradevolume": "912.19",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 217 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-217-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 217,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1452714895145267584401157265255346",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8547285104854732415598842734744654",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "101",
- "liquidity": "978.32",
- "tradevolume": "4135.46",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. annual inflation on January 2022 exceed 7.2%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-annual-inflation-on-january-2022-exceed-7p2",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), for the 12 months ending January 2022. The inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, for all items) before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 7.2% from January 2021 to January 2022 and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on February 10 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote, that this market refers to the all items index increase for the 12 month period, before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote, that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 5.8%, 6.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4945829613190120039136596797699026",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5054170386809879960863403202300974",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "23",
- "liquidity": "5447.06",
- "tradevolume": "877.34",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Georgia?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-georgia",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Also, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Georgia U.S. Gubernatorial election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the winning candidate is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.4116842450944706967717160066645661",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.5883157549055293032282839933354339",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "3",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "65.85",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kanye West release 'Donda 2' (or another new album) by 2/22/22?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-west-release-donda-2-or-another-new-album-by-22222",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "'Donda 2' is the rumored title for Kanye West’s upcoming eleventh studio album, expected to be released on February 22, 2022. This will serve as the official sequel to Kanye’s tenth studio album of the same name, released back in August 2021.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 'Donda 2' or another new album by Kanye West is released and is available via Spotify or Apple Music for streaming after January 28 and before February 22 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve “No.” \n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\", the album must be listed under the albums section of Kanye West's profile, and streamable, on either Apple Music (currently at https://music.apple.com/us/artist/kanye-west/2715720/see-all?section=full-albums) or Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/artist/5K4W6rqBFWDnAN6FQUkS6x/discography/album) streaming platforms.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2887945245614586794300879645270454",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7112054754385413205699120354729546",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "92",
- "liquidity": "10158.89",
- "tradevolume": "8021.65",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kanye West win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-west-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kanye West\nwins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06240262068275448889844963174767938",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9375973793172455111015503682523206",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "29",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "1731.02",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 15, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-march-15-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to March 15, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5520794063892621335222374749096706",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4479205936107378664777625250903294",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "222",
- "liquidity": "25995.16",
- "tradevolume": "72290.64",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which country will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8: United Kingdom or Germany?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-country-will-report-a-higher-7-day-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-on-february-8-united-kingdom-or-germany",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the United Kingdom or Germany will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for these countries with Metric \"Confirmed Cases\", Interval \"7-day rolling average\", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer. \n\nThis market will resolve to one of the aforementioned countries which, by the resolution source, has reported the highest 7-day case average per capita for February 8. \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed on February 10 2022 at 8 PM ET and - if the data for February 8 is not be available then - will be checked every 24 hours for a week. If the data is not available by then, the most recent available data will be used. \n\n--------------------\n\n\nOWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. \n\nHere: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources.\n\nPlease note, if the highest averages per capita are the same for more than one country, the winning outcome shares will be valued adequately.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": "0.04908035352403886028377244441489203",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": "0.950919646475961139716227555585108",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "32",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "895.67",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "United Kingdom, Germany"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by June 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-june-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, June 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2840319179541281973297148546040359",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7159680820458718026702851453959641",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "liquidity": "9893.06",
- "tradevolume": "10618.11",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q2 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q2-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q2 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1526673600019980432970698548807166",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8473326399980019567029301451192834",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "34",
- "liquidity": "1884.40",
- "tradevolume": "1129.10",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ben Shapiro win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ben-shapiro-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ben Shapiro wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.023178558302509801763214782462244",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.976821441697490198236785217537756",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "16",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "1255.28",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hop Protocol airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hop-protocol-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Hop Protocol will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3420131528280667454039378509568034",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6579868471719332545960621490431966",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "79",
- "liquidity": "601.73",
- "tradevolume": "2362.26",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkish Lira (TRY) price fall below $0.05 by the end of June 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-turkish-lira-try-price-fall-below-005-by-the-end-of-june-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "Turkey is in the throes of a currency crisis. The lira has lost more than 40 percent of its value against the United States dollar last year, making it the worst-performing of all emerging market currencies.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Turkish Lira (TRY) falls below $0.0500 at any time before the resolution time of June 30 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be foreign exchange platform XE: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=USD\n\nThis market will resolve on midmarket prices with a 10-min resolution, however the \"low\" price for the time period of this market (January 20 2022 - June 30 2022) will be sufficient.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3355241429403946138335989629377675",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6644758570596053861664010370622325",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "8",
- "liquidity": "3108.62",
- "tradevolume": "61.07",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the floor price of Bored Apes be above 69 ETH on February 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-floor-price-of-bored-apes-be-above-69-eth-on-february-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) will maintain a floor price of over 69 ETH on February 1st, 2022 at 12:00 PM ET, according to https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub.\n\nThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if on the aforementioned check time, there are no Bored Apes listed for sale for 69 ETH or lower on the official Bored Ape Yacht Club collection page on OpenSea, and 'No' otherwise.\n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date.\n\nNote that the exact price at the check time will be used. If no floor price is available at the check time, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9977971368997311203728367947047219",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.002202863100268879627163205295278113",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "58",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "2489.07",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by June 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbases-nft-marketplace-be-live-by-june-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Coinbase’s NFT platform launches to the public prior to June 1st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the platform is launched prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. \n\n“Launch” for the purposes of this market requires that the general public in the United States (the majority of Americans) is able to do one of the following: mint, buy, sell, list, or bid on NFTs from within the Coinbase NFT platform. A closed or private beta will not count, though a public beta will. \n\nIf such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8368534021326376547032655421156627",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1631465978673623452967344578843373",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "19",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "2746.76",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Aave suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-aave-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Aave suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Aave is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06784746049605621036440583457736531",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9321525395039437896355941654226347",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "18",
- "liquidity": "7572.95",
- "tradevolume": "7711.93",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Wisconsin?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-wisconsin",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Also, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Gubernatorial election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the winning candidate is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.3199408470460781426609534195782759",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.6800591529539218573390465804217241",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "53",
- "liquidity": "3653.45",
- "tradevolume": "261.22",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will David McCormick win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-david-mccormick-win-the-republican-nomination-for-the-2022-united-states-senate-election-in-pennsylvania",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether David McCormick will win the Republican nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania. The primary election is scheduled to take place on May 17, 2022.\n\nIf David McCormick wins the Republican nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDetermination of the Republican nominee for the 2022 election for the Senator of Pennsylvania will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5306724790215991958400254959155077",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4693275209784008041599745040844923",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "9",
- "liquidity": "1785.28",
- "tradevolume": "95.88",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'Café con aroma de mujer: Season 1' be the #1 Netflix show worldwide on the week ending January 30?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-caf-con-aroma-de-mujer-season-1-be-the-1-netflix-show-worldwide-on-the-week-ending-january-30",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the 'Café con aroma de mujer: Season 1' will hold the number one spot on Netflix’s Weekly Global Top 10 list for the week ending on January 30 2022. \n\nThe resolution source will be the official statistic portal of Netflix (https://top10.netflix.com/), under 'Global Top 10' for the week January 24 - January 30, 2022'. Both 'TV (English)' and 'TV (Non-English)' top lists will be checked, and the number of hours viewed for each of the titles will be compared.\n\nIf 'Café con aroma de mujer: Season 1' is ranked #1 for the aforementioned week in terms of hours viewed including TV (English) and TV (Non-English), this market will resolve to 'Yes'. Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No.' \n\nThe resolution source will be checked on February 2, 12 PM ET. If the resolution data is unavailable, the source will be checked every 24 hours until the data is available, and the most recent data will be used to resolve the market. If two weeks later the data is still unavailable, this market resolves 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.002677020011100936521842204135642234",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9973229799888990634781577958643578",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "135",
- "liquidity": "473.63",
- "tradevolume": "3867.48",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US 7-day average of Covid-19 cases on February 4, 2022 be higher than on February 11, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-7-day-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-february-4-2022-be-higher-than-on-february-11-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the United States will report a 7-day average of COVID-19 cases for the date of February 4, 2022 that is higher than the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases reported for the date of February 11, 2022. This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to \"Select a state or territory\" and select “United States”, and then scroll to \"Data Table for Daily Case Trends\" and view the data in the \"7-Day Moving Avg\" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed at 8 PM ET on February 18, 2022 to check the 7-day average for both the dates of February 4, 2022 and February 11, 2022.\n\nIf the 7-day average for February 4, 2022 exceeds that of February 11, 2022 at this check, \"Yes\" will win. \nOtherwise, \"No\" will win. \n\nIf the resolution source is unavailable at that time, another credible source will be chosen to resolve the market instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.953863917451201553912052395822292",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.04613608254879844608794760417770804",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "48",
- "liquidity": "485.55",
- "tradevolume": "2516.09",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 800,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-800000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 800,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.001238365665144959389548332844055788",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9987616343348550406104516671559442",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "liquidity": "183.45",
- "tradevolume": "2786.10",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Optimism have a token by May 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-optimism-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Optimism will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If Optimism have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4054527376201705232031785858032086",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5945472623798294767968214141967914",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "40",
- "liquidity": "1300.00",
- "tradevolume": "3760.80",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 3.6%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-3pt6",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.6%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8641415657116756214119300493168169",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1358584342883243785880699506831831",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "25",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "1350.86",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nifty Gateway airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nifty-gateway-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Nifty Gateway will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2805194420431953370698586090209223",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7194805579568046629301413909790777",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "31",
- "liquidity": "600.00",
- "tradevolume": "1630.57",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which country will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8: Denmark or France?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-country-will-report-a-higher-7-day-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-on-february-8-denmark-or-france",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Denmark or France will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for these countries with Metric \"Confirmed Cases\", Interval \"7-day rolling average\", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer. \n\nThis market will resolve to one of the aforementioned countries which, by the resolution source, has reported the highest 7-day case average per capita for February 8. \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed on February 10 2022 at 8 PM ET and - if the data for February 8 is not be available then - will be checked every 24 hours for a week. If the data is not available by then, the most recent available data will be used. \n\n--------------------\n\n\nOWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. \n\nHere: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources.\n\nPlease note, if the highest averages per capita are the same for more than one country, the winning outcome shares will be valued adequately.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Denmark",
- "probability": "0.946940418598394672496415653448903",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": "0.05305958140160532750358434655109699",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "41",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "837.03",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Denmark, France"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. \n\nIf, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". \n\nThe resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0117859520353225785022816281411875",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9882140479646774214977183718588125",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "523",
- "liquidity": "1376.29",
- "tradevolume": "5319.28",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new U.S. Supreme Court justice be confirmed in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-us-supreme-court-justice-be-confirmed-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Senate confirms and names a new justice to the Supreme Court on or before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, if a new justice is announced before the resolution date, but it comes into effect afterwards, this market will resolve to “Yes”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8884788094595390461434336561205301",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1115211905404609538565663438794699",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "133",
- "liquidity": "600.00",
- "tradevolume": "11524.30",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will John Fetterman win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-john-fetterman-win-the-democratic-nomination-for-the-2022-united-states-senate-election-in-pennsylvania",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether John Fetterman will win the Democratic nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania. The primary election is scheduled to take place on May 17, 2022.\n\nIf John Fetterman wins the Democratic nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDetermination of the Democratic nominee for the 2022 election for the Senator of Pennsylvania will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5228529194231988330381757299662883",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4771470805768011669618242700337117",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "97.65",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating on any day in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-higher-than-his-disapproval-rating-on-any-day-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden’s approval rating be higher than his disapproval rating, as per FiveThirtyEight, on any day of 2022.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator,\n(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), specifically, the approval rating indicated by the green trend line and the disapproval rating indicated by the orange line for the resolution date. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if for any day on or after January 1, 2022 and before January 1 2023, Joe Biden's approval rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than the disapproval rating.\n\nChanges in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the outlined event occurs. The last check will be on January 1, 2023, 12:00 PM ET. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the last check, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until the rating for the resolution date is available. If the ratings are still not available on the resolution source a week later or Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval ratings.\n\nIf the resolution source link changes, the new link will be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3235162172135737382796469255970429",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6764837827864262617203530744029571",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "41",
- "liquidity": "2448.73",
- "tradevolume": "2240.30",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-marine-le-pen-win-the-2022-french-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen is the winner of the 2022 French Presidential election.\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that if no election occurs in 2022, then all brackets will resolve “No”.\nThe first round of the 2022 French presidential election will be held on 10 April 2022. Should no candidate win a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two candidates on 24 April 2022.\nThe main resolution sources for this market will be https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/ and https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/, however credible media reports will also be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.09062048218848791652543806562156987",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9093795178115120834745619343784301",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "38",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "927.15",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by February 15th?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-february-15th",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by February 15, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before February 15, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on February 15, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01738876277995041928155021283598152",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9826112372200495807184497871640185",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "48",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "841.15",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 150,000 on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-150000-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 150,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.380780918294320721002040717994496",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.619219081705679278997959282005504",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "34",
- "liquidity": "6541.36",
- "tradevolume": "2250.15",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Polygon ($MATIC) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-polygon-matic-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Polygon ($MATIC) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $0.80, and the upper bound is $3.20. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polygon. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.3289743839304869562959950000197544",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.6710256160695130437040049999802456",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "1403.71",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8: the USA or the European Union?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-will-report-a-higher-7-day-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-on-february-8-the-usa-or-the-european-union",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the United States of America or the European Union will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for the USA and the EU with Metric \"Confirmed Cases\", Interval \"7-day rolling average\", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer. \n\nThis market will resolve to one of the aforementioned which, by the resolution source, has reported the highest 7-day case average per capita for February 8. \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed on February 10 2022 at 8 PM ET and - if the data for February 8 is not be available then - will be checked every 24 hours for a week. If the data is not available by then, the most recent available data will be used. \n\n--------------------\n\n\nOWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. \n\nHere: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources.\n\nPlease note, if the highest averages per capita are the same for more than one country, the winning outcome shares will be valued adequately.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "USA",
- "probability": "0.04393280286043525381223046479104579",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "European Union",
- "probability": "0.9560671971395647461877695352089542",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "37",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "542.45",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "USA, European Union"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the top song on Spotify Charts hit 36M global streams for the week ending on February 3?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-top-song-on-spotify-charts-hit-36m-global-streams-for-the-week-ending-on-february-3",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a number of times the #1 song will be streamed globally by Spotify on the week ending February 3 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Spotify Charts (https://charts.spotify.com/), which ranks the most popular songs streamed by Spotify, on the Weekly Top Songs Global list, filtered by \"Weekly\", and \"Week of Feb 3\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one song will record 36,000,000 or more global weekly streams, for the week ending on February 3. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis source will be checked on February 4, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, and every 24 hours thereafter if data is not available. If the data isn't available for the next week, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\n-----------------\n\nNote, the stream count you see in charts might look different from the app and Spotify for Artists.\n\nSpotify generates chart stream numbers using a special formula that protects the integrity of charts, and makes sure all voices of the users are reflected. It means not every stream on Spotify is eligible for Charts. Some songs may have fewer chart-eligible streams than others, depending on streaming behavior.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.008169053186432438836468163026367792",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9918309468135675611635318369736322",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "42",
- "liquidity": "654.65",
- "tradevolume": "450.79",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ethereum reach $3000 by Valentine's Day?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-reach-3000-by-valentines-day",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Ethereum (ETH) is $3000.00 or above at any point within the market time frame as per Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum), and “No” otherwise. \n\nThe market time frame spans from January 31 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET) to February 14 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET).\n\nTo resolve this market, Coingecko's 30min candlestick high prices will be used.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.616618422726164499081693745303608",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.383381577273835500918306254696392",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "213",
- "liquidity": "1269.31",
- "tradevolume": "3250.84",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 4.0%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-4pt0",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 4.0%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06738135156160247529134139482687584",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9326186484383975247086586051731242",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "20",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "1042.55",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by July 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3979545763085703045809620525035995",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6020454236914296954190379474964005",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "41",
- "liquidity": "61246.96",
- "tradevolume": "6918.44",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.365095458716829655581015857012981",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.634904541283170344418984142987019",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "37",
- "liquidity": "3926.88",
- "tradevolume": "808.33",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Compound suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-compound-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Compound suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Compound is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.08090970764298582877486268230791098",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.919090292357014171225137317692089",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "25",
- "liquidity": "3000.00",
- "tradevolume": "6170.35",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will $BTC or $ETH perform better in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-or-eth-perform-better-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on where $BTC or $ETH will perform better on a percentage % basis, in terms of relative change in their USD prices, in the year 2022. \n\nThe change of prices will be calculated by dividing the coin’s Open price dated 2023-01-01 (ET) by the price dated 2022-01-01, for both $BTC and $ETH, using CoinGecko’s historical pricing data. \n\nIf $BTC’s relative change is greater than $ETH’s, the market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and if $ETH’s relative change is greater than $BTC, the market will resolve to “Ethereum”. If they are exactly equal, the market will resolve to 50:50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bitcoin",
- "probability": "0.4388123001432737813497916484554146",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ethereum",
- "probability": "0.5611876998567262186502083515445854",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "19",
- "liquidity": "500.00",
- "tradevolume": "555.23",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin, Ethereum"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 500,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-500000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 500,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.006295795037386186050068628217109352",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9937042049626138139499313717828906",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "280",
- "liquidity": "75.42",
- "tradevolume": "52472.38",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. House in the 2022 elections?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-win-the-us-house-in-the-2022-elections",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "The 2022 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. During this midterm election year, all voting seats in the House of Representatives will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12 AM ET on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\n\nDetermination of the winners of House seats will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state.\n\nIf a political party other than the Democratic or Republican party wins a majority, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nPlease note, the delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House will not be considered for this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": "0.1542452597751105792859460651965551",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.8457547402248894207140539348034449",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "55",
- "liquidity": "4155.56",
- "tradevolume": "745.33",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Arizona?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-arizona",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Also, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Gubernatorial election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the winning candidate is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.3749442333217642695021947841997316",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.6250557666782357304978052158002684",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "7",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "378.79",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'Archive 81' be the #1 Netflix show worldwide on the week ending January 30?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-archive-81-be-the-1-netflix-show-worldwide-on-the-week-ending-january-30",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the 'Archive 81' will hold the number one spot on Netflix’s Weekly Global Top 10 list for the week ending on January 30 2022. \n\nThe resolution source will be the official statistic portal of Netflix (https://top10.netflix.com/), under 'Global Top 10' for the week January 24 - January 30, 2022. Both 'TV (English)' and 'TV (Non-English)' top lists will be checked, and the number of hours viewed for each of the titles will be compared.\n\nIf 'Archive 81' is ranked #1 for the aforementioned week in terms of hours viewed including TV (English) and TV (Non-English), this market will resolve to 'Yes'. Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No.' \n\nThe resolution source will be checked on February 2, 12 PM ET. If the resolution data is unavailable, the source will be checked every 24 hours until the data is available, and the most recent data will be used to resolve the market. If two weeks later the data is still unavailable, this market resolves 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.003102535519559476399329466176875869",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9968974644804405236006705338231241",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "75",
- "liquidity": "81.65",
- "tradevolume": "3575.46",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nikki-haley-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nimrata Nikki Haley wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1326826230399438418024973567720317",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8673173769600561581975026432279683",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "21",
- "liquidity": "1650.20",
- "tradevolume": "459.72",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'The Batman' gross between $120 million and $160 million on the opening weekend in the USA?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-batman-gross-between-120-million-and-160-million-on-the-opening-weekend-in-the-usa",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "'The Batman' is an upcoming American superhero film based on the DC Comics character Batman. \n\nThis is a market on how much 'The Batman' (to be released on March 4, 2022) will gross domestically (in the USA) on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl67732993/ will resolve this market when checked on March 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'The Batman' grossed more than $120,000,000 but less than $160,000,000, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4146514713597409212537729192035959",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5853485286402590787462270807964041",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "12",
- "liquidity": "2685.06",
- "tradevolume": "127.57",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by May 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-may-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, May 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1192822399959166277418884351222459",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8807177600040833722581115648777541",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "63",
- "liquidity": "1236.81",
- "tradevolume": "3472.13",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will France have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-france-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-italy-and-spain-on-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if France has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.666815290954996973138877071847685",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.333184709045003026861122928152315",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "109",
- "liquidity": "994.25",
- "tradevolume": "3746.47",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will annual inflation in the European Union be 5.5% or more in January?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-annual-inflation-in-the-european-union-be-5p5-or-more-in-january",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from January 2021 to January 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in January 2022 is 5.5 percent or more and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators.\n\nThe next release of HICP inflation rate with full data for January 2022 is scheduled for February 23.\n\n-----------------------------------\n\nNote, that this market is about the inflation for all European Union Member States, not only the Euro zone (states using €).\n\nInflation dashboard for the Euro zone can be viewed here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2156331126226026021300602830158881",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7843668873773973978699397169841119",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "32",
- "liquidity": "3059.31",
- "tradevolume": "5247.20",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US 7-day average of Covid-19 cases on February 18 be higher than on February 25?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-7-day-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-february-18-be-higher-than-on-february-25",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the United States will report a 7-day average of COVID-19 cases for the date of February 18, 2022 that is higher than the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases reported for the date of February 25, 2022. This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to \"Select a state or territory\" and select “United States”, and then scroll to \"Data Table for Daily Case Trends\" and view the data in the \"7-Day Moving Avg\" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed at 8 PM ET on March 4, 2022 to check the 7-day average for both the dates of February 18 and February 25, 2022.\n\nIf the 7-day average for February 18, 2022 exceeds that of February 25, 2022 at this check, \"Yes\" will win. \nOtherwise, \"No\" will win. \n\nIf the resolution source is unavailable at that time, another credible source will be chosen to resolve the market instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9186776947321208636999835534838805",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.08132230526787913630001644651611946",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "37",
- "liquidity": "512.89",
- "tradevolume": "993.09",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on March 20, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-march-20-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is the market on whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the prime minister of the United Kingdom on the resolution time, March 20 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe office of prime minister is not established by any statute or constitutional document, but exists only by long-established convention, this individual is also an MP and is normally the leader of the political party that commands a majority in the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if, before the resolution time, official government or credible media sources state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity or any other reason.\n\nPlease note, if Boris Johnson resigns from the office before the resolution time, but remains in post until the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOtherwise, if Boris Johnson still holds the office and there was no resignation, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7547923895500917994357600309243692",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2452076104499082005642399690756308",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "166",
- "liquidity": "879.12",
- "tradevolume": "2266.26",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'Jackass Forever' get 80% or higher Tomatometer Score?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jackass-forever-get-80-or-higher-tomatometer-score",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, as checked on the resolution date, the 'Jackass Forever' movie will be given 80% or higher Tomatometer rating at Rotten Tomatoes, and 'No' otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source (Tomatometer All Critics Score rating at Rotten Tomatoes' movie profile: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/jackass_forever) for this market will be checked on the resolution date - February 7 2022 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\n---------------\n\n'Jackass Forever' will be released worldwide on February 4.\n\nRotten Tomatoes' Tomatometer is the percentage of all Approved Tomatometer Critics who have given this movie a positive review.\n\n---------------\n\nIf for any reason the resolution data is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 12 hours, until the actual data is available.\n\nIf the data is not available on the resolution source by February 14 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.839240261860210921582536066898515",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.160759738139789078417463933101485",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "41",
- "liquidity": "500.00",
- "tradevolume": "1153.33",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $5 billion in volume in January 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-5-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $5,000,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $5.0b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0001027449049903288289923265000630622",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9998972550950096711710076734999369",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "275",
- "liquidity": "49.83",
- "tradevolume": "15326.21",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will J. Michelle Childs be the next nominee for Supreme Court Justice?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-j-michelle-childs-be-the-next-nominee-for-supreme-court-justice",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether J. Michelle Childs will be the first nominee for the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) seat being vacated by Justice Stephen Breyer. If J. Michelle Childs is the next nominee to the SCOTUS before January 1, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no nominee to SCOTUS is chosen before the settlement date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nUpon any SCOTUS nomination made by POTUS this question will resolve, regardless of whether that nominee is later confirmed to become a Justice of the Supreme Court.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official statements released by The White House of the United States on its website (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/), and from verified or official media releases made by POTUS.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2578145288317280765244451700704758",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7421854711682719234755548299295242",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "11",
- "liquidity": "175.78",
- "tradevolume": "48.21",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Zapper airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zapper-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Zapper will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2901713486575985857055839425629477",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7098286513424014142944160574370523",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "68",
- "liquidity": "500.00",
- "tradevolume": "3500.81",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by May 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-may-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to May 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8928404963715830418138393550310768",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1071595036284169581861606449689232",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "liquidity": "300.06",
- "tradevolume": "1237.76",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will The Sandbox or Decentraland have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-sandbox-or-decentraland-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether The Sandbox or Decentraland will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for The Sandbox will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/sandbox), specifically the price of the cheapest Sandbox for sale.\nThe resolution source for Decentraland will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/decentraland), specifically the price of the cheapest Decentraland NFT for sale.\n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at the initial listing time.\n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Sandbox” if at the check time, the floor price of Sandbox is higher than Decentraland. The market will resolve to “Decentraland” if at the check time the floor price of Decentraland is above Sandbox. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sandbox",
- "probability": "0.2078023333735168320114963891980868",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Decentraland",
- "probability": "0.7921976666264831679885036108019132",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "61",
- "liquidity": "3600.00",
- "tradevolume": "6240.52",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sandbox, Decentraland"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Wisconsin?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-wisconsin",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.3324158748953793666340914388200195",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.6675841251046206333659085611799805",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "15",
- "liquidity": "1082.54",
- "tradevolume": "214.45",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-olympusdao-ohm-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OlympusDAO (Ohm) suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf OlympusDAO (Ohm) is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1054924997321857006368035540309609",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8945075002678142993631964459690391",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "27",
- "liquidity": "3000.00",
- "tradevolume": "5655.81",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MetaMask launch a token by March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-launch-a-token-by-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will have a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the MetaMask product or protocol, and substantiated by MetaMask or ConsenSys via official websites or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf MetaMask has a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1586497317748600361448349203811201",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8413502682251399638551650796188799",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "50",
- "liquidity": "500.00",
- "tradevolume": "1709.25",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Pennsylvania?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-pennsylvania",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.42505629797810120830768575138378",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.57494370202189879169231424861622",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "8",
- "liquidity": "2108.86",
- "tradevolume": "88.83",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Spain have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Italy on March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-spain-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-the-us-france-and-italy-on-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spain has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, France, and Italy on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2087267058132418846912620125330431",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7912732941867581153087379874669569",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "51",
- "liquidity": "941.66",
- "tradevolume": "1335.33",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1200365460597007056725917119626947",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8799634539402992943274082880373053",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "230",
- "liquidity": "2156.08",
- "tradevolume": "20666.67",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $4.5 billion in volume in February 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-45-billion-in-volume-in-february-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in February 2022 will exceed $4,500,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on March 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of February is greater than $4.5b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new link(s) will be used as source(s). If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for the following 7 days. If still unavailable after that week, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6968527094440173004347565096932698",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3031472905559826995652434903067302",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "15",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "147.17",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-bitcoin-btc-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $20,000.00, and the upper bound is $60,000.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.4267990687012636910132876442268257",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.5732009312987363089867123557731743",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "35",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "741.39",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ron DeSantis win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ron-desantis-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ronald Dion de Santis wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.298057832069822183229729808836076",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.701942167930177816770270191163924",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "39",
- "liquidity": "2902.41",
- "tradevolume": "1028.58",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the top song on Spotify Charts hit 32M global streams for the week ending on February 10?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-top-song-on-spotify-charts-hit-32m-global-streams-for-the-week-ending-on-february-10",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a number of times the #1 song will be streamed globally by Spotify on the week ending February 10 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Spotify Charts (https://charts.spotify.com/), which ranks the most popular songs streamed by Spotify, on the Weekly Top Songs Global list, filtered by \"Weekly\", and \"Week of Feb 10\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one song will record 32,000,000 or more global weekly streams, for the week ending on February 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis source will be checked on February 11, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, and every 24 hours thereafter if data is not available. If the data isn't available for the next week, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\n-----------------\n\nNote, the stream count you see in charts might look different from the app and Spotify for Artists.\n\nSpotify generates chart stream numbers using a special formula that protects the integrity of charts, and makes sure all voices of the users are reflected. It means not every stream on Spotify is eligible for Charts. Some songs may have fewer chart-eligible streams than others, depending on streaming behavior.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4822526679323408285933706883905244",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5177473320676591714066293116094756",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "11",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "92.75",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MetaMask launch a token by February 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-launch-a-token-by-february-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will have a live token by February 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the MetaMask product or protocol, and substantiated by MetaMask or ConsenSys via official websites or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf MetaMask has a live token by February 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01401408343917561158812787588800251",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9859859165608243884118721241119975",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "74",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "917.78",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MetaMask airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-metamask-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if MetaMask will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2620118993423829247553111717775077",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7379881006576170752446888282224923",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "306",
- "liquidity": "5094.97",
- "tradevolume": "17771.01",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Curve suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-curve-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Curve suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Curve is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07380400275428077126373856665976374",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9261959972457192287362614333402363",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "18",
- "liquidity": "11052.15",
- "tradevolume": "15491.44",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Luiz da Silva win 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-luiz-da-silva-win-2022-presidential-elections-in-brazil",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is announced the winner of the 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, this market will resolve to “No”. If the first round of elections is held in 2022, but the runoff occurs after 2022 - it still will be considered for this market.\n—-\nThe President and Vice President of Brazil are elected as a joint ticket using the two-round system. The first round of elections is scheduled to take place on October 2 2022.\nThe candidate who receives more than 50% of the total valid votes in the first round is elected. If the 50% threshold is not met by any candidate, the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round participate in a second round of voting, scheduled for 30 October 2022, and the candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.\nThis market will resolve based on credible media sources reports and official info from The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil https://www.tse.jus.br/, as soon as the winner of the elections is decided. Please note, in certain circumstances the resolution of this market might be delayed in order to wait for further official, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve possible ambiguities or uncertainties.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6646172853860720850443520600392221",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3353827146139279149556479399607779",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "47",
- "liquidity": "1166.08",
- "tradevolume": "778.22",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Foundation airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-foundation-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Foundation will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.303877331808053718543494107249686",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.696122668191946281456505892750314",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "61",
- "liquidity": "2100.00",
- "tradevolume": "3409.85",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the top song on Spotify Charts hit 33M global streams for the week ending on February 3?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-top-song-on-spotify-charts-hit-33m-global-streams-for-the-week-ending-on-february-3",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a number of times the #1 song will be streamed globally by Spotify on the week ending February 3 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Spotify Charts (https://charts.spotify.com/), which ranks the most popular songs streamed by Spotify, on the Weekly Top Songs Global list, filtered by \"Weekly\", and \"Week of Feb 3\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one song will record 33,000,000 or more global weekly streams, for the week ending on February 3. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis source will be checked on February 4, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, and every 24 hours thereafter if data is not available. If the data isn't available for the next week, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\n-----------------\n\nNote, the stream count you see in charts might look different from the app and Spotify for Artists.\n\nSpotify generates chart stream numbers using a special formula that protects the integrity of charts, and makes sure all voices of the users are reflected. It means not every stream on Spotify is eligible for Charts. Some songs may have fewer chart-eligible streams than others, depending on streaming behavior.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0175390935058678631433432237795241",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9824609064941321368566567762204759",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "54",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "990.81",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $3.5 billion in volume in January 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-35-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $3,500,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $3.50b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9969752052859796578405015977721383",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.00302479471402034215949840222786172",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "139",
- "liquidity": "100.00",
- "tradevolume": "17829.09",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by February 15, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-us-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-february-15-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": " This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day U.S. COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to February 15, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03986077259936775927004109534760133",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9601392274006322407299589046523987",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "133",
- "liquidity": "300.41",
- "tradevolume": "5444.52",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Avalanche ($AVAX) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-avalanche-avax-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Avalanche ($AVAX) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $30.00, and the upper bound is $140.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/avalanche. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.3544757873940218923467511020430683",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.6455242126059781076532488979569317",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "42",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "842.10",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Axie Infinity's Battles V3 \"Axie: Origin\" be released by March 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-axie-infinitys-battles-v3-axie-origin-be-released-by-march-31-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether NFT-based video game Axie Infinity's Battles V3 \"Axie: Origin\" will launch and be available for play publicly before April 1 2022. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axie Infinity's Battles V3 \"Axie: Origin\" launches at any time prior to March 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be direct releases from the Axie Infinity team\n(https://twitter.com/AxieInfinity, https://axie.substack.com/), however other credible sources will also suffice.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2712979176641532295014155882865181",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7287020823358467704985844117134819",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "13",
- "liquidity": "7709.43",
- "tradevolume": "961.67",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than France, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-a-higher-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-than-france-italy-and-spain-on-march-1st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US has a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than France, Italy, and Spain on March 1, 2022 and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be OurWorldInData; https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false. The source will be checked daily starting from March 2, 8 PM ET until data is available for the day of March 1. If data is unavailable on the source by March 11, 8 PM ET, https://covid19.who.int/ will be used instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1562389731971507831090462925598505",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8437610268028492168909537074401495",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "59",
- "liquidity": "1120.83",
- "tradevolume": "1579.21",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jeff Bartos win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bartos-win-the-republican-nomination-for-the-2022-united-states-senate-election-in-pennsylvania",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Jeff Bartos will win the Republican nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania. The primary election is scheduled to take place on May 17, 2022.\n\nIf Jeff Bartos wins the Republican nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDetermination of the Republican nominee for the 2022 election for the Senator of Pennsylvania will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1126025999438794386390023907043773",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8873974000561205613609976092956227",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "22",
- "liquidity": "230.94",
- "tradevolume": "147.21",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Wormhole hacker return 69% or more of the exploited funds by February 9th?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-wormhole-hacker-return-69-or-more-of-the-exploited-funds-by-february-9th",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "In Response to Trader inquiry: Wormhole has clarified that 120k wETH was exploited. However, this market will continue to use 64,688 ETH returned as the threshold for resolving the market to “Yes.”\n\nOn 2/2/2022 Wormhole was exploited for approximately 93,750 ETH, as can be seen here: https://etherscan.io/address/0x629e7da20197a5429d30da36e77d06cdf796b71a#internaltx\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Wormhole hacker returns at least 69% of the exploited funds to Wormhole by February 9, 2022 11:59:59 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. \n\nAny official announcements by Wormhole (https://wormholenetwork.com/, https://twitter.com/wormholecrypto, etc) will be sufficient to resolve this market, as well as transactions from the hacker that return the funds to whichever relevant party or parties as determined by Wormhole.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, 69% or more of the exploited funds means 64,688 ETH or more. or if other cryptocurrencies/currencies are sent instead, then at the time they were sent if their conversion into ETH was 64,688 ETH or more, it will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes.”\n\nNote that if funds are returned to Wormhole in another way, and they confirm, it will count for this market.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1156523467509259220849349200886197",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8843476532490740779150650799113803",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "79",
- "liquidity": "24687.18",
- "tradevolume": "29641.10",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token or go public first?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-or-go-public-first",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea will launch a token or go public first. \n\nHaving a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via the official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\n“Going public” in this context can be defined as being publicly traded on a stock exchange, regardless of if they list via IPO, direct listing, or some other method. If they are not listed and publicly trading on a stock exchange, that will not satisfy market conditions.\n\nIf the launching a token criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Token”. If the go public criteria is met first, the market will resolve to “Public”. If OpenSea does not release a token or go public by December 31st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, or does both at the exact same time, the market will resolve to 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Token",
- "probability": "0.4821973272001442504956623274716692",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Public",
- "probability": "0.5178026727998557495043376725283308",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "liquidity": "8125.61",
- "tradevolume": "4595.54",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Token, Public"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will USD Coin (USDC) have a market cap of $52 billion or higher on February 8, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-usd-coin-usdc-have-a-market-cap-of-52-billion-or-higher-on-february-8-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether USD Coin (USDC) will have a market cap of $52,000,000,000.00 USD or higher on the resolution date of February 8, 2022. This market will resolve to “Yes” if USDC has a market cap of $52 billion USD or higher according to the resolution source for the date of February 8, 2022. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the “Historical Data” table for USDC on coingecko.com (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data/usd#panel). To find the Market Cap data that will be used, open the Historical Data table for USDC, then find the number under “Market Cap” for the day of February 8, 2022. The Market Cap figure for this date will be checked at 12:00 AM ET, February 9, 2022. If the resolution source is unavailable, CoinMarketCap will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4285185329131039062639518782875091",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5714814670868960937360481217124909",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "97",
- "liquidity": "400.00",
- "tradevolume": "1751.63",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of lumber be above $1,150 as of market close on February 7, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-lumber-be-above-1150-as-of-market-close-on-february-7-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the price of lumber as measured by Random Length Lumber futures contracts (LBS, or LBS=F) will be above $1,150.00 as of market close according to Yahoo Finance’s historical data on February 7, 2022. If the Lumber price is marked above $1,150.00 under the “Close” category when this market is checked after 12:00:00 AM ET on February 8, 2022, this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve as “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LBS%3DF/history?p=LBS%3DF). The “Historical Data” table for Lumber using the symbol “LBS=F” will be used to find question resolution data. To find the data, look under the “Close” column for the date “February 7, 2022”. If the resolution source is deemed unreliable, other credible media sources may be used to ensure a timely and accurate resolution.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1048931245586431095022269079192408",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8951068754413568904977730920807592",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "350.91",
- "tradevolume": "190.72",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": " Will the US 7-day average of Covid-19 cases on February 11 be higher than on February 18?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-7-day-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-february-11-be-higher-than-on-february-18",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the United States will report a 7-day average of COVID-19 cases for the date of February 11, 2022 that is higher than the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases reported for the date of February 18, 2022. This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to \"Select a state or territory\" and select “United States”, and then scroll to \"Data Table for Daily Case Trends\" and view the data in the \"7-Day Moving Avg\" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed at 8 PM ET on February 25, 2022 to check the 7-day average for both the dates of February 11, 2022 and February 18, 2022.\n\nIf the 7-day average for February 11, 2022 exceeds that of February 18, 2022 at this check, \"Yes\" will win. \nOtherwise, \"No\" will win. \n\nIf the resolution source is unavailable at that time, another credible source will be chosen to resolve the market instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9168883762450558212166030618751199",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.0831116237549441787833969381248801",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "53",
- "liquidity": "505.44",
- "tradevolume": "1753.65",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'The Batman' gross $160 million or more on the opening weekend in the USA?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-batman-gross-160-million-or-more-on-the-opening-weekend-in-the-usa",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "'The Batman' is an upcoming American superhero film based on the DC Comics character Batman. \n\nThis is a market on how much 'The Batman' (to be released on March 4, 2022) will gross domestically (in the USA) on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl67732993/ will resolve this market when checked on March 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'The Batman' grossed equal to or more than $160,000,000, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4315841585381772883554263364241906",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5684158414618227116445736635758094",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "33",
- "liquidity": "2859.32",
- "tradevolume": "801.51",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Solana ($SOL) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-solana-sol-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Solana ($SOL) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $55.00, and the upper bound is $255.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.2378415516320335104900970520425771",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.7621584483679664895099029479574229",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "55",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "818.63",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 3.4%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-3pt4",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.4%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9712307729906079789119810836260899",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.02876922700939202108801891637391014",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "940.66",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump’s Truth Social launch on the iOS app store by March 31st?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trumps-truth-social-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-by-march-31st",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the Truth Social iOS app, affiliated with Donald Trump, will be live and available for installation on the US iOS app store by March 31st, 2022. \n\nIf Americans with iPhones with the latest iOS firmware update can install Truth Social, also defined as the app from this linked App Store page: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/truth-social/id1586018825, on or before March 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nPre-Order does not satisfy the market conditions. If the app can be installed by March 31, 2022, even if it is unable to be installed afterwards, it will satisfy the conditions to resolve this market to “Yes.”",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5891526633610045490221701405291271",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4108473366389954509778298594708729",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "69",
- "liquidity": "5468.21",
- "tradevolume": "5873.58",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will “Jackass Forever” gross domestically more than $25 million on the opening weekend?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jackass-forever-gross-domestically-more-than-25-million-on-the-opening-weekend",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on how much 'Jackass Forever' (to be released on February 4, 2022) will gross domestically on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11466222/ will resolve this market when checked on February 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Jackass Forever' grossed domestically more than $25,000,000.00, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4834141255107491593467925319806499",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5165858744892508406532074680193501",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "24",
- "liquidity": "192.26",
- "tradevolume": "986.03",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will $ETH flip $BTC in market cap in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-flip-btc-in-market-cap-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the USD-denominated market capitalization of $ETH (Ethereum) will surpass that of $BTC (Bitcoin) at any time by December 31st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET, according to CoinGecko. The resolution source for this market will be the “Market Cap” statistic and historical data section on each of the respective cryptocurrency’s CoinGecko listings currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at any point in 2022 the market cap of $ETH is greater than that of $BTC, often dubbed “The Flippening”. If, by the resolution date, the market cap of $ETH was never greater than that of $BTC at any given state of time, according to CoinGecko, then this market will resolve to “No”. If the links to the sources change, the new changed link sources will be used. In the event that CoinGecko becomes permanently disabled or unavailable, CoinMarketCap will instead be referenced as the resolution source.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2129837513228619322876235515132499",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7870162486771380677123764484867501",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "122",
- "liquidity": "973.56",
- "tradevolume": "1822.23",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Opyn airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opyn-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Opyn will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4002192521213817263708262124718694",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5997807478786182736291737875281306",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "46",
- "liquidity": "603.92",
- "tradevolume": "2407.74",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US 7-day average of Covid-19 cases on January 28, 2022 be higher than on February 4, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-7-day-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-january-28-2022-be-higher-than-on-february-4-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the United States will report a 7-day average of COVID-19 cases for the date of January 28, 2022 that is higher than the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases reported for the date of February 4, 2022. This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to \"Select a state or territory\" and select “United States”, and then scroll to \"Data Table for Daily Case Trends\" and view the data in the \"7-Day Moving Avg\" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed at 8 PM ET on February 11, 2022 to check the 7-day average for both the dates of January 28, 2022 and February 4, 2022.\n\nIf the 7-day average for January 28, 2022 exceeds that of February 4, 2022 at this check, \"Yes\" will win. \nOtherwise, \"No\" will win. \n\nIf the resolution source is unavailable at that time, another credible source will be chosen to resolve the market instead. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9816737015334190571673106103024826",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.01832629846658094283268938969751736",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "51",
- "liquidity": "541.95",
- "tradevolume": "1483.83",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bored Apes or CryptoPunks have a higher floor price on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-apes-or-cryptopunks-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) or CryptoPunks will have a higher floor price in ETH on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. \n\nThe resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). \n\nBoth sources will be checked on March 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Bored Apes” if at the check time, the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) is higher than CryptoPunks. The market will resolve to “CryptoPunks” if at the check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is above BAYC. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bored Apes",
- "probability": "0.8362548977801030800302631877415958",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "CryptoPunks",
- "probability": "0.1637451022198969199697368122584042",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "83",
- "liquidity": "8484.59",
- "tradevolume": "12522.26",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bored Apes, CryptoPunks"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be the next nominee for Supreme Court Justice?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ketanji-brown-jackson-be-the-next-nominee-for-supreme-court-justice",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Ketanji Brown Jackson will be the first nominee for the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) seat being vacated by Justice Stephen Breyer. If Ketanji Brown Jackson is the next nominee to the SCOTUS before January 1, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no nominee to SCOTUS is chosen before the settlement date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nUpon any SCOTUS nomination made by POTUS this question will resolve, regardless of whether that nominee is later confirmed to become a Justice of the Supreme Court.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official statements released by The White House of the United States on its website (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/), and from verified or official media releases made by POTUS.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6226547866147192068050659030165843",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3773452133852807931949340969834157",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "15",
- "liquidity": "6490.23",
- "tradevolume": "582.61",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 215 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-215-million-fully-vaccinated-people-in-the-usa-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of COVID-19 Fully Vaccinated people in The United States of America according to the CDC COVID tracker, on the resolution date, March 1 2022, 10 PM ET.\n\nCOVID Data Tracker counts people as being “Fully Vaccinated” if they received two doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or received one dose of a single-dose vaccine.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if more than 215,000,000 people are counted by CDC as Fully Vaccinated on the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at\nhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total, in the box under the tab \"Fully Vaccinated People\" and will be checked on the resolution date, regardless of the time of recent data update. If the website is down at the final check, it will be checked every 6 hours for 3 days. If the website is still not available, the data for March 1 from Our World in Data will be considered for this market: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7250395048125407858178115578133207",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2749604951874592141821884421866793",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "100",
- "liquidity": "12529.38",
- "tradevolume": "14987.83",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-elon-musk-or-jeff-bezos",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Elon Musk",
- "probability": "0.9305290463408141351731220108169816",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Bezos",
- "probability": "0.06947095365918586482687798918301843",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "78",
- "liquidity": "3605.10",
- "tradevolume": "7716.25",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 100,000 on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-100000-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 100,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7642754705139587082971757427413525",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2357245294860412917028242572586475",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "45",
- "liquidity": "374.17",
- "tradevolume": "1316.07",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will have a higher net worth on February 20: Mark Zuckerberg or Larry Page?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-february-20-mark-zuckerberg-or-larry-page",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on the resolution date, February 20 2022, 12:00 PM ET: Mark Zuckerberg or Larry Page. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).\nThis market will resolve to the name of the billionaire, which has the higher net worth according to the resolution source on the resolution time. If they have the same net worth up to the first decimal point, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the resolution source is not available on the resolution time, it will be checked every 12 hours for a week until the most recent data will be available. Otherwise, this market will resolve 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mark Zuckerberg",
- "probability": "0.06205600538485172808735268855405198",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Page",
- "probability": "0.937943994615148271912647311445948",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "124",
- "liquidity": "3336.72",
- "tradevolume": "7167.57",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mehmet Oz win the Republican nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-mehmet-oz-win-the-republican-nomination-for-the-2022-united-states-senate-election-in-pennsylvania",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Mehmet Oz will win the Republican nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania. The primary election is scheduled to take place on May 17, 2022.\n\nIf Mehmet Oz wins the Republican nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDetermination of the Republican nominee for the 2022 election for the Senator of Pennsylvania will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2234186550379958182167221280596453",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7765813449620041817832778719403547",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "2",
- "liquidity": "1096.97",
- "tradevolume": "115.00",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Pennsylvania?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-pennsylvania",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Also, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Gubernatorial election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the winning candidate is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.4691816707494917511197714429961403",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.5308183292505082488802285570038597",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "6",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "242.03",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. annual inflation on January 2022 exceed 6.8%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-annual-inflation-on-january-2022-exceed-6p8",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), for the 12 months ending January 2022. The inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, for all items) before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 6.8% from January 2021 to January 2022 and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on February 10 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote, that this market refers to the all items index increase for the 12 month period, before seasonal adjustment.\n\nThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.\n\nNote, that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 5.8%, 6.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9278449924126311519700937848033849",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.07215500758736884802990621519661505",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "9",
- "liquidity": "333.33",
- "tradevolume": "234.53",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by March 15th?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-march-15th",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by March 15, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before March 15, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on March 15, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07411354608520271190943708564412359",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9258864539147972880905629143558764",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "28",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "1037.14",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by April 19th?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-april-19th",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by April 19, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before April 19, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on April 19, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1552643715162977306601575869185564",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8447356284837022693398424130814436",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "24",
- "liquidity": "3160.70",
- "tradevolume": "2077.94",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Terra ($LUNA) or Avalanche ($AVAX) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-terra-luna-or-avalanche-avax-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Terra ($LUNA) or Avalanche ($AVAX) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Terra",
- "probability": "0.5981510053937997234514954825339234",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Avalanche",
- "probability": "0.4018489946062002765485045174660766",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "119",
- "liquidity": "1044.82",
- "tradevolume": "2404.80",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Terra, Avalanche"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token by March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-by-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will have a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \n\nHaving a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf OpenSea has a live token by March 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07012827819371865175444419760888939",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9298717218062813482455558023911106",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "62",
- "liquidity": "2019.26",
- "tradevolume": "6684.93",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by May 17th?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-a-variant-that-overtakes-omicron-in-the-us-by-may-17th",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by May 17, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before May 17, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on May 17, 2022, at 8 PM ET.\n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2338446479970205468874573676323849",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7661553520029794531125426323676151",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "16",
- "liquidity": "771.54",
- "tradevolume": "1316.62",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Nevada?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-nevada",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Also, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Gubernatorial election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the winning candidate is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.4965940119700825984434476067708945",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.5034059880299174015565523932291055",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "9",
- "liquidity": "2615.46",
- "tradevolume": "754.81",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by February 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbases-nft-marketplace-be-live-by-february-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Coinbase’s NFT platform launches to the public prior to February 1st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the platform is launched prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. \n\n“Launch” for the purposes of this market requires that the general public in the United States (the majority of Americans) is able to do one of the following: mint, buy, sell, list, or bid on NFTs from within the Coinbase NFT platform. A closed or private beta will not count, though a public beta will. \n\nIf such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.003805442478512417893219743302998962",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.996194557521487582106780256697001",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "43",
- "liquidity": "57.17",
- "tradevolume": "5584.61",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Leondra Kruger be the next nominee for Supreme Court Justice?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-leondra-kruger-be-the-next-nominee-for-supreme-court-justice",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Leondra Kruger will be the first nominee for the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) seat being vacated by Justice Stephen Breyer. If Leondra Kruger is the next nominee to the SCOTUS before January 1, 2023, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no nominee to SCOTUS is chosen before the settlement date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nUpon any SCOTUS nomination made by POTUS this question will resolve, regardless of whether that nominee is later confirmed to become a Justice of the Supreme Court.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official statements released by The White House of the United States on its website (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/), and from verified or official media releases made by POTUS.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1662920977329920914216741613877827",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8337079022670079085783258386122173",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "6",
- "liquidity": "274.60",
- "tradevolume": "68.18",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-us-senate-after-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.\n\nThis market will resolve to the party which is affiliated with more than half of the voting Senate members after the 2022 Senate elections, or if the Vice President has the same party affiliation, half or more of the voting Senate members. A Senator's party affiliation is determined by whichever party’s caucus he or she is a member of; namely at the time of the writing of this question, Bernie Sanders and Angus King are considered to be affiliated with the Democratic Party.\n\nDetermination of which party controls the Senate after the 2022 U.S. Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": "0.2650002484873803923206660944857367",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.7349997515126196076793339055142633",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "77",
- "liquidity": "2433.63",
- "tradevolume": "2111.27",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 4.2%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-4pt2",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 4.2%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.02712631940052478669818589099182246",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9728736805994752133018141090081775",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "25",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "1127.81",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. \n\nIf, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". \n\nThe resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.02277264710925847837271251810358277",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9772273528907415216272874818964172",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "24",
- "liquidity": "958.13",
- "tradevolume": "1716.41",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $2.75 billion in volume in January 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-275-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $2,750,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $2.75b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9987762830954450269179961938950546",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.001223716904554973082003806104945413",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "63",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "1729.96",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which country will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8: Italy or Spain?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-country-will-report-a-higher-7-day-covid-19-case-average-per-capita-on-february-8-italy-or-spain",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Italy or Spain will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on February 8 2022.\n\nThis market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for these countries with Metric \"Confirmed Cases\", Interval \"7-day rolling average\", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer. \n\nThis market will resolve to one of the aforementioned countries which, by the resolution source, has reported the highest 7-day case average per capita for February 8. \n\nThe resolution source will be reviewed on February 10 2022 at 8 PM ET and - if the data for February 8 is not be available then - will be checked every 24 hours for a week. If the data is not available by then, the most recent available data will be used. \n\n--------------------\n\n\nOWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. \n\nHere: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources.\n\nPlease note, if the highest averages per capita are the same for more than one country, the winning outcome shares will be valued adequately.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Italy",
- "probability": "0.6772878066992083394812678480547812",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Spain",
- "probability": "0.3227121933007916605187321519452188",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "12",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "168.44",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Italy, Spain"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2024 United States presidential election?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2024 election.\n\nThe main resolution sources for this market will be (https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/results), (http://whitehouse.gov/) and (https://www.fec.gov/). Further official, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions may also be considered to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.\n\nIf another party wins other than Democratic or Republican, the market will resolve 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": "0.445512943622622186180401133598434",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.554487056377377813819598866401566",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "35",
- "liquidity": "2737.93",
- "tradevolume": "870.54",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next recession in the US happen by Q4 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-recession-in-the-us-happen-by-q4-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\nThis market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q4 2022 is released.\n\nPlease note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3536476392288534025116353351934828",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6463523607711465974883646648065172",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "44",
- "liquidity": "3322.60",
- "tradevolume": "1580.21",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U-3 unemployment rate in January be above 3.8%?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-u-3-unemployment-rate-in-january-be-above-3pt8",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for January 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for the statistical month January 2022 is more than 3.8%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. The first datacheck will be on February 4 2022, 10 AM ET. Please note, any revisions to the data after the resolution time will not be taken into account.\n\n——————————\n\nThe Monthly Employment Situation Report is published by the BLS every month. A\nschedule of release dates is available on the BLS website\n(https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), and the data is typically released at\n8:30am ET. Each month’s report is available at the following URL, which automatically\ndisplays the latest available report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.527657204120441494990389515619128",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.472342795879558505009610484380872",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "64",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "14880.69",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Coinbase’s NFT marketplace be live by April 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbases-nft-marketplace-be-live-by-april-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Coinbase’s NFT platform launches to the public prior to April 1st, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the platform is launched prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. \n\n“Launch” for the purposes of this market requires that the general public in the United States (the majority of Americans) is able to do one of the following: mint, buy, sell, list, or bid on NFTs from within the Coinbase NFT platform. A closed or private beta will not count, though a public beta will. \n\nIf such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6770960833750225120021776879319378",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3229039166249774879978223120680622",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "27",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "6278.36",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 'Stay Close: Limited Series' be the #1 Netflix show worldwide on the week ending January 30?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-stay-close-limited-series-be-the-1-netflix-show-worldwide-on-the-week-ending-january-30",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the 'Stay Close: Limited Series' will hold the number one spot on Netflix’s Weekly Global Top 10 list for the week ending on January 30 2022. \n\nThe resolution source will be the official statistic portal of Netflix (https://top10.netflix.com/), under 'Global Top 10' for the week January 24 - January 30, 2022'. Both 'TV (English)' and 'TV (Non-English)' top lists will be checked, and the number of hours viewed for each of the titles will be compared.\n\nIf 'Stay Close: Limited Series' is ranked #1 for the aforementioned week in terms of hours viewed including TV (English) and TV (Non-English), this market will resolve to 'Yes'. Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No.' \n\nThe resolution source will be checked on February 2, 12 PM ET. If the resolution data is unavailable, the source will be checked every 24 hours until the data is available, and the most recent data will be used to resolve the market. If two weeks later the data is still unavailable, this market resolves 50/50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.003086331215777118705928729610787313",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9969136687842228812940712703892127",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "liquidity": "57.74",
- "tradevolume": "960.21",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Conor Lamb win the Democratic nomination for the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-conor-lamb-win-the-democratic-nomination-for-the-2022-united-states-senate-election-in-pennsylvania",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Conor Lamb will win the Democratic nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania. The primary election is scheduled to take place on May 17, 2022.\n\nIf Conor Lamb wins the Democratic nomination for Senator of Pennsylvania, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDetermination of the Democratic nominee for the 2022 election for the Senator of Pennsylvania will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4177908078963125060317789824136012",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5822091921036874939682210175863988",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "12",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "106.60",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by April 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-april-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to April 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6866014374759496837547351064445324",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3133985625240503162452648935554676",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.142Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "165",
- "liquidity": "7025.33",
- "tradevolume": "10930.30",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more volume in February ‘22 than it did in January ‘22?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-volume-in-february-22-than-it-did-in-january-22",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in February 2022 will exceed its Ethereum Volume it had in January 2022 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked daily at 12:00 PM ET, and finally on March 2, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. \n\nIf on any of the checks the OpenSea volume in February is greater than that of January, the market will resolve “Yes.” If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum in February is less than or equal to that of January on all of the checks, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the time of the last check, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5151149984763465751041099469675015",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4848850015236534248958900530324985",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "59",
- "liquidity": "2418.94",
- "tradevolume": "3638.96",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. \n\nIf, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". \n\nThe resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.02708156039073045386468092912905427",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9729184396092695461353190708709457",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "17",
- "liquidity": "736.13",
- "tradevolume": "1271.81",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by April 15, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-april-15-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to April 15, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8067830241342862454937642945743743",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1932169758657137545062357054256257",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "563.91",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bored Apes or CryptoPunks have a higher floor price on April 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bored-apes-or-cryptopunks-have-a-higher-floor-price-on-april-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) or CryptoPunks will have a higher floor price in ETH on April 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for BAYC will be prices listed on OpenSea (https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub), specifically the price of the cheapest Bored Ape for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date. Note that the exact price at the check times will be used. If no floor price is available at the check times, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time. \n\nThe resolution source for CryptoPunks will be (https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale#), specifically the price of the cheapest CryptoPunk for sale. Only listings that have existed for at least an hour prior to each check time are valid for this market (as verified by the transaction hash time). \n\nBoth sources will be checked on April 1st 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Bored Apes” if at the check time, the floor price of BAYC (Bored Ape Yacht Club) is higher than CryptoPunks. The market will resolve to “CryptoPunks” if at the check time the floor price of CryptoPunks is above BAYC. If the floor prices are equal, the market will resolve 50/50.\n\nIf the links to the sources change, the new links will be used as sources.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bored Apes",
- "probability": "0.6532164693339660551073568843228862",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "CryptoPunks",
- "probability": "0.3467835306660339448926431156771138",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "49",
- "liquidity": "929.05",
- "tradevolume": "3070.19",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bored Apes, CryptoPunks"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 300,000 on March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-300000-on-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 300,000 on March 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on March 8, 2022, 8 PM ET. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.09909337655003933729443734048236074",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9009066234499606627055626595176393",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "25",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "674.83",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Michigan?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-michigan",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022, in 36 states and three territories. Also, special elections may take place (depending on state law) if other gubernatorial seats are vacated.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Michigan U.S. Gubernatorial election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the winning candidate is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.5350075930119587417468516382591054",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.4649924069880412582531483617408946",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "9",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "450.65",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will income taxes rise for the highest tax bracket in 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-income-taxes-rise-for-the-highest-tax-bracket-in-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if a bill that has the effect of raising the top bracket federal personal income tax rate above 37.0% becomes law before December 31 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, other provisions that may affect the amount of personal tax paid by a given individual but are not the personal income tax rate are not considered in this market. \n\nNote also, the increases in taxes imposed on specific kinds of personal income that are not taxable income or (adjusted) gross income are not considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4043339175290104748222681971057299",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5956660824709895251777318028942701",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "92",
- "liquidity": "1504.12",
- "tradevolume": "4040.08",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Uniswap suffer an exploit by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-suffer-an-exploit-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Uniswap suffers an exploit between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Rekt News leaderboard, currently available at https://rekt.news/leaderboard/. \n\nIf Uniswap is listed on the resolution source as a protocol having suffered an exploit during the aforementioned market duration time, regardless of the size or ranking, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIn the case there is ambiguity over the validity of Rekt's Leaderboard, the project's primary communication channels (e.g. Twitter), and other credible crypto publications will be referenced by the arbiters of UMA's Optimistic Oracle.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the protocol is listed on the website.\n\nThe final check for this market will be on April 1, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If the resolution source is unavailable, it will be checked every 24 hours, and if still unavailable a week later, the market will resolve to “No.”\n\nOnly exploits which have a date listed on the Rekt News Leaderboard between January 26, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) will count.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05444367386191355115151911092254098",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.945556326138086448848480889077459",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "22",
- "liquidity": "4000.00",
- "tradevolume": "12592.19",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Bored Ape appear during a SuperBowl LVI Commercial or Halftime Show?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-bored-ape-appear-during-a-superbowl-lvi-commercial-or-halftime-show",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether a Bored Ape NFT will appear within any SuperBowl LVI commercial or as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show. If any Bored Ape NFT, or image of a Bored Ape appears during any SuperBowl LVI Commercial or at all as an official part of the SuperBowl LVI Halftime Show, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/commercials and official footage from the Superbowl LVI Halftime Show, however other credible sources will also suffice.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3672060847440502671796390113011679",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6327939152559497328203609886988321",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "67",
- "liquidity": "10668.94",
- "tradevolume": "8848.85",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-be-below-100000-by-march-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 Case average is below 100,000 for any day ranging from January 6, 2022 to March 1, 2022 inclusive, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases. \n\nThe market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. The market will be checked daily at 8 PM to see if any day within the aforementioned range has a 7-day COVID-19 case average below 100,000. If an average below 100,000 is detected, it will be checked again 7 days later. If it is still under 100,000 at that point, the market will be resolved. If it is 100,000 or above, then the market will not resolve based on that data point.\n\nThe final check will be 1 week after the last date in the range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2343177176906315801261129955497321",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7656822823093684198738870044502679",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "238",
- "liquidity": "15498.32",
- "tradevolume": "42166.65",
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kamala-harris-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2331214696552737553503733928878076",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7668785303447262446496266071121924",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "7",
- "liquidity": "3136.51",
- "tradevolume": "328.01",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on May 20, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-may-20-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is the market on whether Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the prime minister of the United Kingdom on the resolution time, May 20 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nThe office of prime minister is not established by any statute or constitutional document, but exists only by long-established convention, this individual is also an MP and is normally the leader of the political party that commands a majority in the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"No\" if, before the resolution time, official government or credible media sources state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity or any other reason.\n\nPlease note, if Boris Johnson resigns from the office before the resolution time, but remains in post until the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOtherwise, if Boris Johnson still holds the office and there was no resignation, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5831353879473843373956860918714439",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4168646120526156626043139081285561",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "110",
- "liquidity": "3287.08",
- "tradevolume": "1680.12",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA have confirmed more than 4910 existing exoplanets by February 11?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nasa-have-confirmed-more-than-4910-existing-exoplanets-by-february-11",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of confirmed exoplanets reported by NASA, on the resolution time: February 11 2022, 12 PM ET.\n\nIf the number of confirmed exoplanets as reported by NASA is greater than 4910 on resolution time, this market resolves to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market resolves to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which reports the number of confirmed exoplanets on their Exoplanet Exploration Program website: https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/. Specifically, the number above the 'confirmed' field on the main page will be considered - regardless of any other press releases.\n\n----------------\n\nAn exoplanet is any planet beyond our solar system. Most orbit other stars, but free-floating exoplanets, called rogue planets, orbit the galactic center and are untethered to any star.\n\nWhen this market was created (January 27 2022), the number of confirmed exoplanets was 4903.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9881681104979952450996565224975476",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.01183188950200475490034347750245235",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "49",
- "liquidity": "150.00",
- "tradevolume": "1119.08",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "2022 U.S. Senate elections: Will a Democrat or Republican win in Nevada?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/2022-us-senate-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-in-nevada",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Democrat” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election is representing the Democratic Party, or to “Republican” if the candidate who wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election is representing the Republican Party. \n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nIf the winning candidate is from a party other than the Democratic or the Republican party, the market will resolve to 50/50.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the Senate election will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democrat",
- "probability": "0.3632076990540690471836587550773347",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": "0.6367923009459309528163412449226653",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "1094.67",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democrat, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by August 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-august-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, August 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.\n\nIf the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \nOtherwise, the market will resolve \"No\".\n\nNote, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4849617052730954765863976713214142",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5150382947269045234136023286785858",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "54",
- "liquidity": "1079.52",
- "tradevolume": "3159.67",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $6.5 billion in volume in January 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-6p5-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $6,500,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $6.5b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.001944922489033222317140763833583795",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9980550775109667776828592361664162",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "183",
- "liquidity": "698.55",
- "tradevolume": "25374.29",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea have more than $7 billion in volume in January 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-have-more-than-7-billion-in-volume-in-january-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether OpenSea’s Ethereum Volume in January 2022 will exceed $7,000,000,000 according to the “OpenSea monthly volume (Ethereum)” section on https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea. \n\nThe source above will be checked on February 2, 2022 12:00 PM ET. If the USD-denominated OpenSea trading volume on Ethereum for the month of January is greater than $7.0b, the market will resolve to “Yes”, otherwise the market will resolve to “No”. \n\nIf the link to the source changes, the new links will be used as sources. If the source is unavailable at the resolution time, the source will be checked every 24 hours for a week thereafter. If still unavailable after the week, DappRadar will be used instead.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.003082941430739943320065547866898946",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9969170585692600566799344521331011",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "67",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "2058.30",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-vaccine-specifically-targeting-the-omicron-variant-be-available-for-access-by-the-us-population-before-april-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "If a vaccine engineered to specifically provide protection against the Omicron variant of COVID-19, whether or not it additionally protects against other variants of SARS-CoV-2, is released for public use in the US, regardless of whether its use is restricted to particular population segments, before April 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe source used to resolve this market will be official information released by the FDA (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) and/or other official information from the government of the United States of America.\n\nNote, this market is only for a vaccine’s availability in the United States, and does not cover any vaccine’s availability in any other country.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1477953069189596073322716278146964",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8522046930810403926677283721853036",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "41",
- "liquidity": "3884.58",
- "tradevolume": "6885.06",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Phantom airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-phantom-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Phantom will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1155762966447501094564436949102355",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8844237033552498905435563050897645",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "62",
- "liquidity": "500.46",
- "tradevolume": "7046.16",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dogecoin ($DOGE) or Shiba Inu ($SHIB) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dogecoin-doge-or-shiba-inu-shib-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Dogecoin ($DOGE) or Shiba Inu ($SHIB) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Dogecoin",
- "probability": "0.9394359101841159779568973702845096",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shiba Inu",
- "probability": "0.06056408981588402204310262971549041",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "88",
- "liquidity": "1110.87",
- "tradevolume": "722.12",
- "stars": 1
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Dogecoin, Shiba Inu"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 7-day COVID-19 Case average in the USA be above 200,000 on February 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-7-day-covid-19-case-average-in-the-usa-be-above-200000-on-february-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA is above 200,000 on February 1, 2022, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is the CDC; https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The source will be checked on February 8, 2022, 8 PM ET.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9995953335023751783869513365512103",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.0004046664976248216130486634487896665",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "23",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "1185.31",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ripple-xrp-or-cardano-ada-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Ripple ($XRP) or Cardano ($ADA) will have a higher market cap on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, according to CoinGecko’s Cryptocurrency market cap ranking.\n\nOn the resolution date, March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, CoinGecko’s ranking page https://www.coingecko.com/en will be checked, and whichever of the two cryptocurrencies is higher ranked when sorted by “Market Cap” will have its respectively named Outcome token resolved as the winner. If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be checked such as CoinMarketCap. Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply, according to CoinGecko.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ripple",
- "probability": "0.2104409632794554119925529532659066",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cardano",
- "probability": "0.7895590367205445880074470467340934",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "154",
- "liquidity": "1075.22",
- "tradevolume": "2584.81",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ripple, Cardano"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sergio Moro win 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-sergio-moro-win-2022-presidential-elections-in-brazil",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Sergio Moro is announced the winner of the 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, this market will resolve to “No”. If the first round of elections is held in 2022, but the runoff occurs after 2022 - it still will be considered for this market.\n—-\nThe President and Vice President of Brazil are elected as a joint ticket using the two-round system. The first round of elections is scheduled to take place on 2 October 2022.\nThe candidate who receives more than 50% of the total valid votes in the first round is elected. If the 50% threshold is not met by any candidate, the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round participate in a second round of voting, scheduled for 30 October 2022, and the candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.\nThis market will resolve based on credible media sources reports and official info from The Superior Electoral Court of Brazil https://www.tse.jus.br/, as soon as the winner of the elections is decided. Please note, in certain circumstances the resolution of this market might be delayed in order to wait for further official, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve possible ambiguities or uncertainties.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1064962612661713344282091549739004",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8935037387338286655717908450260996",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "12",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "559.14",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "NBA: Will the Grizzlies beat the Knicks by more than 3.5 points in their February 2 (7.30 PM ET) matchup?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/nba-will-the-grizzlies-beat-the-knicks-by-more-than-35-points-in-their-february-2-730-pm-et-matchup",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for February 2:\n\nIf the Memphis Grizzlies win by over 3.5 points, the market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nIf the New York Knicks lose by less than 3.5 points or win, the market will resolve “No.” \n\nIf the game is not completed by February 9 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET), the market will resolve 50-50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9988921422375168665285093096789524",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.00110785776248313347149069032104765",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "167",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "2395.36",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Polkadot ($DOT) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-polkadot-dot-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Polkadot ($DOT) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $10.00, and the upper bound is $40.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.3086249766156331892587943408698059",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.6913750233843668107412056591301941",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "40",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "956.35",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Zerion airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zerion-airdrop-a-native-token-by-march-31st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Zerion will both launch and airdrop a native token by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. \n\nAirdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition. \n\nIf this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by March 31st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2476375441547544484648475396412295",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7523624558452455515351524603587705",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "39",
- "liquidity": "499.92",
- "tradevolume": "592.36",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will “Jackass Forever” gross domestically more than $20 million on the opening weekend?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jackass-forever-gross-domestically-more-than-20-million-on-the-opening-weekend",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on how much 'Jackass Forever' (to be released on February 4, 2022) will gross domestically on the opening weekend.\n\nOpening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. \n\nThe “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11466222/ will resolve this market when checked on February 7 2022, 9 PM ET. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 'Jackass Forever' grossed domestically more than $20,000,000.00, and to \"No\" otherwise.\n\nIf the box office sales data is a studio estimate, or if there is no data available, the source will be checked every 24 hours until there is conclusive data. If data is not available 1 week after the first check, this market will resolve 50/50. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7044517397304406211890313867328423",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2955482602695593788109686132671577",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "39",
- "liquidity": "654.65",
- "tradevolume": "1032.07",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin or Ethereum perform better in February 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-ethereum-perform-better-in-february-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether $BTC or $ETH will perform better on a percentage % basis, in terms of relative change in their USD prices, in the month of February 2022. \n\nThe change of prices will be calculated by dividing the coin’s Open price dated 2022-03-01 (ET) by the price dated 2022-02-01, for both $BTC and $ETH, using CoinGecko’s historical pricing data. \n\nIf $BTC’s relative change is greater than $ETH’s, the market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and if $ETH’s relative change is greater than $BTC, the market will resolve to “Ethereum”. If they are exactly equal, the market will resolve to 50:50.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bitcoin",
- "probability": "0.4878060784463596338328018714532807",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ethereum",
- "probability": "0.5121939215536403661671981285467193",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "11",
- "liquidity": "2999.95",
- "tradevolume": "264.08",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin, Ethereum"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the top song on Spotify Charts hit 35M global streams for the week ending on February 10?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-top-song-on-spotify-charts-hit-35m-global-streams-for-the-week-ending-on-february-10",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on a number of times the #1 song will be streamed globally by Spotify on the week ending February 10 2022.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Spotify Charts (https://charts.spotify.com/), which ranks the most popular songs streamed by Spotify, on the Weekly Top Songs Global list, filtered by \"Weekly\", and \"Week of Feb 10\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if at least one song will record 35,000,000 or more global weekly streams, for the week ending on February 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis source will be checked on February 11, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, and every 24 hours thereafter if data is not available. If the data isn't available for the next week, this market will resolve 50/50.\n\n-----------------\n\nNote, the stream count you see in charts might look different from the app and Spotify for Artists.\n\nSpotify generates chart stream numbers using a special formula that protects the integrity of charts, and makes sure all voices of the users are reflected. It means not every stream on Spotify is eligible for Charts. Some songs may have fewer chart-eligible streams than others, depending on streaming behavior.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4301345522935501473342534702081493",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5698654477064498526657465297918507",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "28",
- "liquidity": "300.00",
- "tradevolume": "209.57",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4404517562851661192160938779063822",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5595482437148338807839061220936178",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "71",
- "liquidity": "3487.60",
- "tradevolume": "2008.44",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by October 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by-october-1-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time October 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \nOtherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlease note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nNote also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2062476424466689777443545362753297",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7937523575533310222556454637246703",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "28",
- "liquidity": "1585.23",
- "tradevolume": "1177.69",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the floor price of Bored Apes be above 89 ETH on February 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-floor-price-of-bored-apes-be-above-89-eth-on-february-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) will maintain a floor price of over 89 ETH on February 1st, 2022 at 12:00 PM ET, according to https://opensea.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub.\n\nThis market will resolve to 'Yes' if on the aforementioned check time, there are no Bored Apes listed for sale for 89 ETH or lower on the official Bored Ape Yacht Club collection page on OpenSea, and 'No' otherwise.\n\nOnly listings that have existed for at least an hour are valid for this market. List time for an NFT can be found under “Trading History” by clicking the “Listing” filter and hovering over the date.\n\nNote that the exact price at the check time will be used. If no floor price is available at the check time, the source will be checked every following hour. For valid listings that are declining price auctions, the price exactly at the check time will be used, NOT the price at initial listing time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9963329379137947317358216984087147",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.003667062086205268264178301591285343",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "79",
- "liquidity": "50.00",
- "tradevolume": "2048.03",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenSea launch a token by February 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-opensea-launch-a-token-by-february-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if OpenSea will have a live token by February 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. \n\nHaving a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the OpenSea product or protocol, and substantiated by OpenSea via official website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.\n\nIf OpenSea has a live token by February 1st, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If not, the market will resolve to \"No\". ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.004104842367726245531189510720106385",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9958951576322737544688104892798936",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "liquidity": "50.19",
- "tradevolume": "1300.38",
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of Terra ($LUNA) be on March 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-price-of-terra-luna-be-on-march-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a scalar market on what the price of Terra ($LUNA) will be on March 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $25.00, and the upper bound is $125.00. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the coin’s listed price on its official CoinGecko page https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna. This market will resolve according to the “C” (aka closing price) listed for the candle titled “Tue 01 March 2022, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on the resolution day. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the relevant cryptocurrency’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value’s position within the upper and lower bound, if the final value is between these bounds. But if the final outcome value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Long",
- "probability": "0.2555422809280754983266419924841012",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Short",
- "probability": "0.7444577190719245016733580075158988",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "165",
- "liquidity": "5300.00",
- "tradevolume": "6906.65",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will zkSync have a token by May 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-zksync-have-a-token-by-may-1st-2022",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if zkSync or Matter Labs will have a live token related to its ecosystem, technology, chain, or parent company, by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Having a live token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native or related to the application, protocol, technology, ecosystem, or parent company, and is substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. In the case that the token comes in the form of a DAO or DAO-like organizational structure that has governing or controlling power over the underlying tech or protocol, or is otherwise officially related to the project, instead of a traditional fee paying-related token, that will still qualify as launching a token. If zkSync or Matter Labs have a live token by May 1st, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and the market resolution criteria has not been met, the market will resolve to \"No\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4868747708879216059334832017924771",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5131252291120783940665167982075229",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:05.143Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "31",
- "liquidity": "366.60",
- "tradevolume": "1416.30",
- "stars": 3
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5188679245283019,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.4339622641509434,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:11.062Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 816943
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.7524752475247525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.24752475247524752,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:16.821Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 782399
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8316831683168316,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.16831683168316833,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:21.989Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1031756
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:25.900Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 371216
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:31.614Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 208062
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:35.118Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 125754
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:40.426Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 87466
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-2024",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:45.922Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 151226
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:51.980Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 101130
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6310679611650486,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.36893203883495146,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:49:56.569Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 137999
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:01.966Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 68469
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:07.228Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 104486
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:11.916Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 274026
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:17.430Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 208271
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:21.124Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 256933
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.3577981651376146,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.2568807339449541,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.07339449541284401,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.036697247706422007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.036697247706422007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:26.501Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 22737157
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jr., Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Glenn Youngkin, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stacey Abrams",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sherrod Brown",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:32.432Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 4670829
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Stacey Abrams, Sherrod Brown"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:37.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 119818
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8415841584158416,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.15841584158415842,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:42.822Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 106878
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.34234234234234234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.23423423423423423,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.18018018018018017,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gibbons",
- "probability": 0.11711711711711711,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Johnson",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Pukita",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Moreno",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Dolan",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:46.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1210023
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Mandel, J. D. Vance, Jane Timken, Mike Gibbons, Rob Portman, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Steve Stivers, Brad Wenstrup, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson, Mark Pukita, Bernie Moreno, Matt Dolan"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:52.177Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 266639
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:50:58.036Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 137253
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:01.878Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 122629
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Kagame",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:05.485Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 189715
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Muhammadu Buhari, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Cyril Ramaphosa, Félix Tshisekedi, Paul Kagame, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Nana Akufo-Addo"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:10.769Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 106312
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "13",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "17",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "19",
- "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20",
- "probability": 0.8018867924528301,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "21",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "22",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:16.259Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 2220516
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "12 or fewer, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.9150943396226414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Morgan Harper",
- "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:20.231Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 169828
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Morgan Harper, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.5045045045045045,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.3693693693693693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chrissy Houlahan",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sharif Street",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valerie Arkoosh",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:25.664Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 771688
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney, Chrissy Houlahan, Sharif Street, Valerie Arkoosh"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "David McCormick",
- "probability": 0.5438596491228069,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mehmet Oz",
- "probability": 0.21052631578947364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Bartos",
- "probability": 0.07894736842105261,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla Sands",
- "probability": 0.06140350877192982,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathy Barnette",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keith Rothfus",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Everett Stern",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Costello",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Dent",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sean Parnell",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Bochetto",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sean Gale",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:30.650Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 571796
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "David McCormick, Mehmet Oz, Jeff Bartos, Carla Sands, Kathy Barnette, Keith Rothfus, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Charlie Dent, Sean Parnell, George Bochetto, Sean Gale"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5384615384615385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4615384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:35.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 137977
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5544554455445545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.44554455445544555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:40.219Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 101830
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.7029702970297029,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:45.158Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 91472
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:49.880Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1443733
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:51:55.501Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 79519
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.822429906542056,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gary Black",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Latham Saddler",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoff Duncan",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Carr",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelvin King",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Buddy Carter",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:00.267Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 809946
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Herschel Walker, Gary Black, Latham Saddler, Doug Collins, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Brian Kemp, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Vernon Jones, Kelvin King, Buddy Carter"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.7383177570093458,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.12149532710280374,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:04.070Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 89917
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.37837837837837834,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.34234234234234234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vicky Hartzler",
- "probability": 0.1081081081081081,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.06306306306306306,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark McCloskey",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Brunner",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:07.905Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 365070
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Jason Smith, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, Roy Blunt, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.6036036036036035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.34234234234234234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Burr",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Forest",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Meadows",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Robinson",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:13.814Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 159713
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, Richard Burr, Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows, Mark Robinson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:19.098Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 33770
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.6822429906542056,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "R House, D Senate",
- "probability": 0.14953271028037382,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.11214953271028036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "D House, R Senate",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:24.318Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1014042
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kathy Hochul",
- "probability": 0.8288288288288288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jumaane Williams",
- "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Suozzi",
- "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Bellone",
- "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:27.464Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3397542
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kathy Hochul, Jumaane Williams, Tom Suozzi, Andrew Cuomo, Bill de Blasio, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Thomas DiNapoli, Letitia James, Hillary Clinton, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Bellone"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Cheri Beasley",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Jackson",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Erica Smith",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heath Shuler",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:30.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 36469
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Cheri Beasley, Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8823529411764706,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.0784313725490196,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:34.025Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 58785
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mandela Barnes",
- "probability": 0.5963302752293578,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alex Lasry",
- "probability": 0.17431192660550457,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steven Olikara",
- "probability": 0.10091743119266054,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Godlewski",
- "probability": 0.055045871559633024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Nelson",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gillian Battino",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron Kind",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Larson",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:39.718Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 105207
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mandela Barnes, Alex Lasry, Steven Olikara, Sarah Godlewski, Tom Nelson, Gillian Battino, Ron Kind, Chris Larson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Katie Britt",
- "probability": 0.4587155963302752,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mo Brooks",
- "probability": 0.25688073394495414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Durant",
- "probability": 0.2293577981651376,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Shelby",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Merrill",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Moore",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Sessions",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jessica Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:45.122Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 138304
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Katie Britt, Mo Brooks, Mike Durant, Lynda Blanchard, Richard Shelby, John Merrill, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions, Jessica Taylor"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Chuck Grassley",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat Grassley",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashley Hinson",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Carlin",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew Whitaker",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:49.158Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 122308
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Ashley Hinson, Jim Carlin, Matthew Whitaker"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.9514563106796116,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gallagher",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Walker",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Steil",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:54.252Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 128355
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Scott Walker, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.47115384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.4423076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marjorie Greene",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ames Barnett",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kandiss Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:52:58.494Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 647447
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, David Perdue, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Marjorie Greene, Ames Barnett, Kandiss Taylor"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:02.343Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 58307
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jody Hice",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Raffensperger",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Belle Isle",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:06.055Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 28078
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lucas Kunce",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Sifton",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Quinton Lucas",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Koster",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Nixon",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Williams",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:11.132Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 41828
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucas Kunce, Scott Sifton, Quinton Lucas, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon, Brian Williams"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.9207920792079208,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:17.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 50648
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:21.217Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 26165
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:24.774Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6077
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.8446601941747572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Crist",
- "probability": 0.07766990291262135,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Fried",
- "probability": 0.058252427184466014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Val Demings",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annette Taddeo",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:28.116Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 617488
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Val Demings, Annette Taddeo"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7229/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Arizona Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mark Brnovich",
- "probability": 0.39999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Blake Masters",
- "probability": 0.3739130434782608,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Ducey",
- "probability": 0.09565217391304347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Lamon",
- "probability": 0.043478260869565216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mick McGuire",
- "probability": 0.026086956521739126,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andy Biggs",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Gosar",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelli Ward",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirk Adams",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kimberly Yee",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Martha McSally",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Olson",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:31.577Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 285962
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Brnovich, Blake Masters, Doug Ducey, Jim Lamon, Mick McGuire, Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Kelli Ward, Kirk Adams, Kimberly Yee, Martha McSally, Justin Olson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Greg Abbott",
- "probability": 0.8796296296296295,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Allen West",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Don Huffines",
- "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chad Prather",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew McConaughey",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Crenshaw",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Straus",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George P. Bush",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Patrick",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:35.182Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 737944
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Allen West, Don Huffines, Chad Prather, Matthew McConaughey, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7241/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Beto O'Rourke",
- "probability": 0.9607843137254901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joaquin Castro",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Julián Castro",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew McConaughey",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Wendy Davis",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:40.222Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 395070
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Beto O'Rourke, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro, Matthew McConaughey, Wendy Davis"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7253/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Nevada Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Adam Laxalt",
- "probability": 0.6851851851851851,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sam Brown",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Amodei",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heidi Gansert",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Hutchison",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Sandoval",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Kieckhefer",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jill Tolles",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sharelle Mendenhall",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:45.537Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 54600
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Adam Laxalt, Sam Brown, Mark Amodei, Heidi Gansert, Mark Hutchison, Brian Sandoval, Ben Kieckhefer, Jill Tolles, Sharelle Mendenhall"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number of individuals who hold a seat in the U.S. Senate on 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022 and are re-elected to that same seat in the 2022 general election (including any runoff elections, if necessary).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "23 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.2815533980582524,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "24",
- "probability": 0.18446601941747573,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "25",
- "probability": 0.1553398058252427,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "26",
- "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "27",
- "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "28",
- "probability": 0.07766990291262135,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "29",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "30 or more",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:49.410Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 118904
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "23 or fewer, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Maura Healey",
- "probability": 0.7920792079207919,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoff Diehl",
- "probability": 0.0693069306930693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonia Chang-Díaz",
- "probability": 0.05940594059405939,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Baker",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karyn Polito",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Downing",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ayanna Pressley",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Danielle Allen",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Kennedy III",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Gonzalez",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:53:54.905Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 271959
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Maura Healey, Geoff Diehl, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Danielle Allen, Joe Kennedy III, Jay Gonzalez, Marty Walsh"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 New Hampshire Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Chuck Morse",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Bolduc",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank Edelblut",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Ayotte",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Sununu",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Brown",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Mowers",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Corky Messner",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Phil Taub",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Binnie",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank Guinta",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:00.514Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 73297
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Morse, Donald Bolduc, Frank Edelblut, Kelly Ayotte, Chris Sununu, Scott Brown, Matt Mowers, Corky Messner, Phil Taub, Bill Binnie, Frank Guinta"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will resolve to No, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:06.337Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 216324
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mike DeWine",
- "probability": 0.6422018348623852,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.2477064220183486,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Blystone",
- "probability": 0.055045871559633024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Rodgers",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave Yost",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:11.513Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 94133
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike DeWine, Jim Renacci, Joe Blystone, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Adam Rodgers, Warren Davidson, Dave Yost"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Cranley",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Pepper",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:15.851Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12211
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nan Whaley, John Cranley, David Pepper, Emilia Sykes"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if Sen. Lisa Murkowski is the winner of the 2022 general election for United States Senator from Alaska. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:21.627Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 128242
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Val Demings",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stephanie Murphy",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alan Grayson",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:26.326Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18075
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Val Demings, Stephanie Murphy, Alan Grayson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7307/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lee Zeldin",
- "probability": 0.7549019607843137,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Giuliani",
- "probability": 0.13725490196078433,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Harry Wilson",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Astorino",
- "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Carpinelli",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Pataki",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Gibson",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:30.785Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 54186
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lee Zeldin, Andrew Giuliani, Harry Wilson, Rob Astorino, Mike Carpinelli, John Catsimatidis, George Pataki, Chris Gibson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ken Paxton",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George P. Bush",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eva Guzman",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Louie Gohmert",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Krause",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:34.838Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 105729
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ken Paxton, George P. Bush, Eva Guzman, Louie Gohmert, Matt Krause"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to the contract that identifies the individual who is the first-elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.\nAn individual elected, appointed, acting as, and/or sworn in as Speaker Pro Tempore will be insufficient to cause the question listing that individual to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kevin McCarthy",
- "probability": 0.6491228070175438,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nancy Pelosi",
- "probability": 0.07894736842105261,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Scalise",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hakeem Jeffries",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.03508771929824561,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elise Stefanik",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684206,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684206,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steny Hoyer",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Clyburn",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cathy McM. Rodgers",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Bass",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cheri Bustos",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katherine Clark",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Banks",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:38.667Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1390465
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kevin McCarthy, Nancy Pelosi, Steve Scalise, Hakeem Jeffries, Donald Trump, Elise Stefanik, Jim Jordan, Steny Hoyer, James Clyburn, Cathy McM. Rodgers, Karen Bass, Adam Schiff, Cheri Bustos, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Katherine Clark, Jim Banks"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that former President Donald Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in either the 2022 Republican primary election or the general election for any seat in the United States House of Representatives. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:44.670Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 168653
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Idaho Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7329/Who-will-win-the-2022-Idaho-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Idaho.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brad Little",
- "probability": 0.5963302752293578,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Janice McGeachin",
- "probability": 0.33944954128440363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ammon Bundy",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raúl Labrador",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ed Humphreys",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Cotton",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Russ Fulcher",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:48.057Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 34363
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Brad Little, Janice McGeachin, Ammon Bundy, Raúl Labrador, Ed Humphreys, Jeff Cotton, Russ Fulcher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7343/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Josh Shapiro",
- "probability": 0.9702970297029703,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sara Innamorato",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Torsella",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:53.566Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 11689
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Shapiro, Sara Innamorato, Joe Torsella, Jim Kenney"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "William McSwain",
- "probability": 0.29411764705882354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave White",
- "probability": 0.21323529411764702,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lou Barletta",
- "probability": 0.19117647058823528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Mastriano",
- "probability": 0.1691176470588235,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jake Corman",
- "probability": 0.03676470588235294,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Gale",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Gerow",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Monn",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Richey",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nche Zama",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Martin",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kelly",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Laughlin",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Meuser",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Aument",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Cawley",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Fitzpatrick",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.007352941176470588,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:54:58.569Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 73153
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "William McSwain, Dave White, Lou Barletta, Doug Mastriano, Jake Corman, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Jason Monn, Jason Richey, Nche Zama, Scott Martin, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Dan Meuser, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr."
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Luiz Lula da Silva",
- "probability": 0.6454545454545454,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.20909090909090908,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sergio Moro",
- "probability": 0.07272727272727272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Flávio Dino",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ciro Gomes",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guilherme Boulos",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marina Silva",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "João Doria",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "João Amoêdo",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Fernando Haddad",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eduardo Leite",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:02.794Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 73982
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Luiz Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, Sergio Moro, Flávio Dino, Ciro Gomes, Guilherme Boulos, Marina Silva, João Doria, João Amoêdo, Fernando Haddad, Eduardo Leite"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in France.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.6416666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.12499999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.07499999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Éric Zemmour",
- "probability": 0.041666666666666664,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon ",
- "probability": 0.016666666666666663,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nathalie Arthaud",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Philippe Poutou",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Fabien Roussel",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michel Barnier",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "François Baroin",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "N. Dupont-Aignan",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "François Asselineau",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christiane Taubira",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:07.958Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 590389
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour, Jean-Luc Mélenchon , Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Xavier Bertrand, Arnaud Montebourg, Michel Barnier, François Baroin, N. Dupont-Aignan, François Asselineau, Christiane Taubira"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 08/03/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Class One Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act. \nThe legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/20/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 08/03/2021 6:33 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: As used in the Rules, Class One means Schedule I.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:13.380Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 196141
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Colombia.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Gustavo Petro",
- "probability": 0.4491525423728813,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sergio Fajardo",
- "probability": 0.1694915254237288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rodolfo Hernández",
- "probability": 0.10169491525423727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alejandro Char",
- "probability": 0.07627118644067796,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Federico Gutiérrez",
- "probability": 0.050847457627118633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Juan Manuel Galán",
- "probability": 0.050847457627118633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marta Lucía Ramírez",
- "probability": 0.033898305084745756,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Humberto de la Calle",
- "probability": 0.033898305084745756,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tomás Uribe",
- "probability": 0.025423728813559317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Óscar Iván Zuluaga",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:19.446Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 25770
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Gustavo Petro, Sergio Fajardo, Rodolfo Hernández, Alejandro Char, Federico Gutiérrez, Juan Manuel Galán, Marta Lucía Ramírez, Humberto de la Calle, Tomás Uribe, Óscar Iván Zuluaga"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5098039215686274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.49019607843137253,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:24.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 35122
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:29.225Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 20400
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7380/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5544554455445545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.44554455445544555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:33.516Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 23815
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:38.114Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 38306
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7384/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Kansas-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.7623762376237624,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.2376237623762376,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:43.086Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13760
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:47.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 69120
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7387/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:53.722Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 27938
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:55:56.917Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13914
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bongbong Marcos",
- "probability": 0.6822429906542056,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Leni Robredo",
- "probability": 0.1588785046728972,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Manny Pacquiao",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Panfilo Lacson",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Isko Moreno",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sara Duterte-Carpio",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Antonio Trillanes",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonny Angara",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alan Peter Cayetano",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bong Go",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ernesto Abella",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Leody de Guzman",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Norberto Gonzales",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:00.087Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 106693
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bongbong Marcos, Leni Robredo, Manny Pacquiao, Panfilo Lacson, Isko Moreno, Sara Duterte-Carpio, Antonio Trillanes, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano, Bong Go, Ernesto Abella, Leody de Guzman, Norberto Gonzales"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7394/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maine-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6699029126213591,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.3300970873786408,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:05.265Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 10021
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on July 16, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jerome Powell",
- "probability": 0.9423076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lael Brainard",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roger Ferguson",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raphael Bostic",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "William Spriggs",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Daly",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:08.403Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1743693
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jerome Powell, Lael Brainard, Roger Ferguson, Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, William Spriggs, Mary Daly"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7411/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wyoming-At-Large-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 election for U.S. Representative from Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Harriet Hageman",
- "probability": 0.7169811320754716,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Cheney",
- "probability": 0.16981132075471697,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anthony Bouchard",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chuck Gray",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Denton Knapp",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bryan Miller",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Darin Smith",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bryan Keller",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robyn Belinskey",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Perry Pendley",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ed Buchanan",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bo Biteman",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Catharine O'Neill",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:12.049Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 41739
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Harriet Hageman, Liz Cheney, Anthony Bouchard, Chuck Gray, Denton Knapp, Bryan Miller, Darin Smith, Bryan Keller, Robyn Belinskey, Perry Pendley, Ed Buchanan, Bo Biteman, Catharine O'Neill"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the 47th US president?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:17.989Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 188841
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office the individual holds upon launch of this market on August 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.8909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Castillo",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.01818181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:22.433Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 74016
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sebastián Piñera, Pedro Castillo, Jair Bolsonaro, Guillermo Lasso, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7440/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Iowa.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Deidre DeJear",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ras Smith",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cindy Axne",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Sand",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:27.018Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 15106
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Deidre DeJear, Ras Smith, Cindy Axne, Rob Sand"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who receives a majority of the votes of the appointed presidential electors when the Electoral College votes are cast in the 2024 United States presidential election.\nIn the event that no person receives such a majority, all contracts shall resolve to No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:32.730Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 770598
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ron DeSantis, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be prime minister of the Czech Republic on July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7471/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-the-Czech-Republic-on-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Petr Fiala",
- "probability": 0.9514563106796116,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ivan Bartoš",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tomio Okamura",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vojtěch Filip",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jan Hamáček",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:38.439Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 21579
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Petr Fiala, Andrej Babiš, Ivan Bartoš, Tomio Okamura, Vojtěch Filip, Jan Hamáček"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be impeached by June 30, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7485/Will-Joe-Biden-be-impeached-by-June-30,-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives, by simple majority, votes to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Joe Biden prior to either the End Date listed below or the end of President Biden's Presidency, whichever occurs first. \nNeither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2023 11:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:42.859Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 32118
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many of the 2021 GOP Trump impeachers will be re-elected?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7492/How-many-of-the-2021-GOP-Trump-impeachers-will-be-re-elected",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number or range of the ten Republican members of the House of Representatives who voted in favor of the 2021 impeachment of President Donald Trump who are elected to any district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "9 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:46.031Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 119255
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SCOTUS strike down Mississippi ban on pre-viability abortions in Dobbs?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7504/Will-SCOTUS-strike-down-Mississippi-ban-on-pre-viability-abortions-in-Dobbs",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if the Supreme Court, in a ruling that decides the outcome of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, issues an opinion subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, with the effect of striking down Mississippi's ban on pre-viability abortions.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:49.886Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 125261
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rudy Giuliani testify publicly before the Jan. 6 Committee by Mar. 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7507/Will-Rudy-Giuliani-testify-publicly-before-the-Jan-6-Committee-by-Mar-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rudy Giuliani testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.\nLive testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. \nShould Mr. Giuliani appear at any hearing, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Giuliani submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:53.771Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 26159
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be indicted by Apr. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7510/Will-Donald-Trump-be-indicted-by-Apr-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. For purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.\nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:56:58.079Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 546766
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7518/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Prime Minister Kishidia Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Xi\" and \"Kishida\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.5094339622641509,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.10377358490566037,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kishida Fumio",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:01.957Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 199440
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Cyril Ramaphosa, Xi Jinping, Kishida Fumio"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Asia-Pacific leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7519/Which-of-these-10-Asia-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, located upon launch of this market at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold the position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy of such person from, or appointment of another person to, that position. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. For purposes of this market, the family names of President Moon Jae-in, President Joko Widodo, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are \"Moon,\" \"Widodo,\" and \"Kishida,\" respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.8035714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.05357142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.05357142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ebrahim Raisi",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kishida Fumio",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Naftali Bennett",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rodrigo Duterte",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Imran Khan",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:07.898Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 45797
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Moon Jae-in, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Scott Morrison, Ebrahim Raisi, Kishida Fumio, Naftali Bennett, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Rodrigo Duterte, Imran Khan"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 13 Cabinet members will leave first?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7520/Which-of-these-13-Cabinet-members-will-leave-first",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the Cabinet or Cabinet-level position that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nIn the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No.\nAt 11:59 p.m. (ET) 14 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: N/A\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Xavier Becerra",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alejandro Mayorkas",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Janet Yellen",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lloyd Austin",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Miguel Cardona",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Antony Blinken",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Merrick Garland",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deb Haaland",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Vilsack",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gina Raimondo",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marcia Fudge",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:11.546Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 77039
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Becerra, Alejandro Mayorkas, Janet Yellen, Pete Buttigieg, Marty Walsh, Lloyd Austin, Miguel Cardona, Antony Blinken, Merrick Garland, Deb Haaland, Tom Vilsack, Gina Raimondo, Marcia Fudge"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7528/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Massachusetts. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Geoff Diehl",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Patrick O'Connor",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Lelling",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Baker",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karyn Polito",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:14.835Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 61224
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Geoff Diehl, Patrick O'Connor, Andrew Lelling, Charlie Baker, Karyn Polito"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Utah?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7532/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Utah",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Utah U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, a candidate who does not represent either the Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, or Green Parties shall be considered an Independent.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.9603960396039604,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:19.031Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18927
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7534/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Los Angeles, California in the 2022 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Karen Bass",
- "probability": 0.5982142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin de León",
- "probability": 0.33928571428571425,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Buscaino",
- "probability": 0.02678571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Feuer",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Wendy Greuel",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Krekorian",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:23.507Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13405
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Karen Bass, Kevin de León, Joe Buscaino, Mike Feuer, Wendy Greuel, Paul Krekorian"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be Senate majority leader on Feb. 1, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7544/Who-will-be-Senate-majority-leader-on-Feb-1,-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Senate majority leader at the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/01/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mitch McConnell",
- "probability": 0.6499999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chuck Schumer",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Thune",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Cornyn",
- "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barrasso",
- "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dick Durbin",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Patty Murray",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joni Ernst",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:27.412Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 46573
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, John Thune, John Cornyn, John Barrasso, Dick Durbin, Patty Murray, Joni Ernst"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Colorado?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7548/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Colorado",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Colorado U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.7425742574257426,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.25742574257425743,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:33.326Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 35927
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the 2022 Colorado Republican Senate nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7549/Who-will-be-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-Senate-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for United States Senator from Colorado.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eli Bremer",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cory Gardner",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deborah Flora",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron Hanks",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Cooke",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Darryl Glenn",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Patrick Neville",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Erik Aadland",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Peter Yu",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:36.863Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12220
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eli Bremer, Cory Gardner, Deborah Flora, Ron Hanks, John Cooke, Darryl Glenn, Patrick Neville, Erik Aadland, Peter Yu"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7550/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Arizona. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kari Lake",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Salmon",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirk Adams",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Gaynor",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kimberly Yee",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:42.943Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 23326
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kari Lake, Matt Salmon, Kirk Adams, Steve Gaynor, Kimberly Yee"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7552/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Nevada. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Joe Lombardo",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dean Heller",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joey Gilbert",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michele Fiore",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Lee",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Amodei",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Gibbons",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:46.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18992
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Lombardo, Dean Heller, Joey Gilbert, Michele Fiore, John Lee, Mark Amodei, Jim Gibbons"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will either Sinema or Manchin leave the Democratic Party by March 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7554/Will-either-Sinema-or-Manchin-leave-the-Democratic-Party-by-March-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, either Senator Kyrsten Sinema or Senator Joe Manchin definitively and unconditionally withdraws from the Democratic Party. The participation or membership of both Senators in the Senate Democratic Caucus shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to No. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:51.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 214953
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Oregon Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7556/Who-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Oregon. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tina Kotek",
- "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tobias Read",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicholas Kristof",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deborah Kafoury",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ellen Rosenblum",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Wheeler",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:57:56.326Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 61054
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tina Kotek, Tobias Read, Nicholas Kristof, Deborah Kafoury, Ellen Rosenblum, Ted Wheeler"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign by Mar. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7559/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-by-Mar-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:01.157Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 170231
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will the Senate next confirm as Federal Reserve vice chair of Supervision?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7564/Who-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Federal-Reserve-vice-chair-of-Supervision",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on October 27, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin",
- "probability": 0.8333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raphael Bostic",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lael Brainard",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathryn Judge",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "William Spriggs",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lisa Cook",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Randal Quarles",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roger Ferguson",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Seth Carpenter",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Hsu",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cecilia Rouse",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Cordray",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nellie Liang",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Dynan",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valerie Wilson",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:06.921Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 525174
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sarah Bloom Raskin, Raphael Bostic, Lael Brainard, Kathryn Judge, William Spriggs, Lisa Cook, Randal Quarles, Roger Ferguson, Seth Carpenter, Michael Hsu, Cecilia Rouse, Richard Cordray, Nellie Liang, Karen Dynan, Valerie Wilson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7566/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Greg Abbott",
- "probability": 0.8365384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Beto O'Rourke",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Allen West",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew McConaughey",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joaquin Castro",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Julián Castro",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Don Huffines",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:13.014Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 462781
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Beto O'Rourke, Allen West, Matthew McConaughey, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro, Don Huffines"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Colorado Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7569/Who-will-win-the-2022-Colorado-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Colorado. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Heidi Ganahl",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Lopez",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "D. Neuschwanger",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Brauchler",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Huseman",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:18.453Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18078
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Heidi Ganahl, Greg Lopez, D. Neuschwanger, George Brauchler, Benjamin Huseman"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7576/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party shall be considered synonymous with the Democratic Party. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.7115384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.28846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:22.260Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 36765
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7577/Who-will-win-the-2022-Minnesota-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Minnesota. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Paul Gazelka",
- "probability": 0.43589743589743585,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Jensen",
- "probability": 0.2649572649572649,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michelle Benson",
- "probability": 0.19658119658119658,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Murphy",
- "probability": 0.04273504273504273,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neil Shah",
- "probability": 0.025641025641025637,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karin Housley",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla Nelson",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer Carnahan",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Lindell",
- "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:27.015Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18676
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Paul Gazelka, Scott Jensen, Michelle Benson, Mike Murphy, Neil Shah, Karin Housley, Carla Nelson, Jennifer Carnahan, Mike Lindell"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the WV-02 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7578/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-WV-02-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 WV-02 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Alex Mooney",
- "probability": 0.6407766990291263,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David McKinley",
- "probability": 0.3592233009708738,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:30.425Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13389
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Alex Mooney, David McKinley"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7580/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alaska-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mike Dunleavy",
- "probability": 0.7821782178217822,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Walker",
- "probability": 0.15841584158415842,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Les Gara",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Natasha Von Imhof",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Begich",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:36.268Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13573
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mike Dunleavy, Bill Walker, Les Gara, Natasha Von Imhof, Mark Begich"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of South Korea in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7582/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-South-Korea-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in South Korea.\nIf no such presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yoon Suk-yeol",
- "probability": 0.6274509803921569,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lee Jae-myung",
- "probability": 0.3529411764705882,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sim Sang-jung",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ahn Cheol-soo",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:39.874Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 37913
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yoon Suk-yeol, Lee Jae-myung, Sim Sang-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the midterms?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7586/How-many-Senate-seats-will-the-GOP-control-after-the-midterms",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the United States Senate held by a Senator with a Republican party affiliation, at the End Date listed below. \nParty affiliation shall refer to Senator's ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered to be affiliated with a party if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with that party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "46 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.00900900900900901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "47",
- "probability": 0.01801801801801802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "48",
- "probability": 0.02702702702702703,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49",
- "probability": 0.04504504504504505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.0900900900900901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.11711711711711713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.15315315315315317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.1711711711711712,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.1711711711711712,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.09909909909909911,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56 or more",
- "probability": 0.09909909909909911,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:44.042Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 302745
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the Socialist Party win in the 2022 Portuguese election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7587/How-many-seats-will-the-Socialist-Party-win-in-the-2022-Portuguese-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by Partido Socialista, also known as the Socialist Party, in the next election to the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "93 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "94 to 97",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "98 to 101",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "102 to 105",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "106 to 109",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "110 to 113",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "114 to 117",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "118 to 121",
- "probability": 0.9166666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "122 to 125",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "126 or more",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:47.430Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 83907
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "93 or fewer, 94 to 97, 98 to 101, 102 to 105, 106 to 109, 110 to 113, 114 to 117, 118 to 121, 122 to 125, 126 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7590/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Oregon-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:52.424Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18497
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic nomination for attorney general?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7592/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-nomination-for-attorney-general",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of New York. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.9074074074074073,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shelley Mayer",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Zephyr Teachout",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maria Vullo",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Gonzalez",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Melinda Katz",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Gianaris",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Clyde Vanel",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Goldman",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Laura Gillen",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:58:55.959Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 51619
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Shelley Mayer, Zephyr Teachout, Maria Vullo, Eric Gonzalez, Melinda Katz, Michael Gianaris, Clyde Vanel, Andrew Cuomo, Daniel Goldman, Laura Gillen"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7595/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Connecticut-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Connecticut gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8137254901960784,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.18627450980392157,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:01.985Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12937
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many San Francisco school board members recalled?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7596/How-many-San-Francisco-school-board-members-recalled",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of the below-listed members of the San Francisco Unified School District Board who are recalled in the February 2022 recall election. For purposes of this market, a member whose position is vacated prior to the recall election shall be considered to have been recalled, regardless of the existence or outcome of the recall election. \nFor purposes of this market, the three members being considered for recall are Gabriela López, Alison Collins, and Faauuga Moliga. No other members shall be considered for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Zero",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "One",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Two",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Three",
- "probability": 0.8269230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:08.114Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 9061
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two, Three"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7599/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Wes Moore",
- "probability": 0.4077669902912621,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Peter Franchot",
- "probability": 0.30097087378640774,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rushern Baker",
- "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Perez",
- "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John King Jr.",
- "probability": 0.058252427184466014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Gansler",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashwani Jain",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Rosenbaum",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Laura Neuman",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:14.106Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 21645
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Wes Moore, Peter Franchot, Rushern Baker, Tom Perez, John King Jr., Doug Gansler, Ashwani Jain, Mike Rosenbaum, Laura Neuman"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Vermont Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7607/Who-will-win-the-2022-Vermont-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Vermont.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Peter Welch",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Niki Thran",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Miro Weinberger",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:17.569Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 876
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Peter Welch, Niki Thran, Miro Weinberger"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Vermont?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7609/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Vermont",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Vermont U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.9504950495049505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:21.387Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 14419
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican, Independent"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the GA-07 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7611/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-GA-07-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Georgia's Seventh Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lucy McBath",
- "probability": 0.7281553398058253,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carolyn Bourdeaux",
- "probability": 0.2718446601941748,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:26.088Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 17767
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lucy McBath, Carolyn Bourdeaux"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7612/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Stacey Abrams",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barrow",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Van Johnson",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Thurmond",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:30.901Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 34870
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Stacey Abrams, John Barrow, Van Johnson, Mike Thurmond"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any incumbent senator lose a primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7617/Will-any-incumbent-senator-lose-a-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, in the 2022 Midterm primaries, any sitting United States Senator contests and loses a primary election for a United States Senate seat.\nIn states that have partisan primaries for United States Senate elections, only the primary for the party that the Senator caucuses with in the United States Senate shall be relevant. In states that do not have partisan primaries for United States Senate elections, losing a primary shall be synonymous with any performance in a non-partisan primary that is insufficient to advance the Senator to the general election as a ballot-listed candidate. \nContesting a primary shall be synonymous with being a ballot-listed candidate.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:34.573Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 14215
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any national GOP primary poll show someone beating Trump by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7619/Will-any-national-GOP-primary-poll-show-someone-beating-Trump-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if any national primary poll of likely or registered Republican voters for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is released by a pollster rated \"B\" or higher by fivethirtyeight.com and shows President Donald Trump to be in second place or lower. Qualifying polls must show President Trump as a candidate and be posted to the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator subsequent to the launch of this market on December 1, 2021 and by the End Date listed below. A poll that shows Mr. Trump in a tie for first place shall be insufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nAt the time of the launch of this market market, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/, while pollster ratings can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/. For purposes of this market, a rating of \"A/B\" shall be considered to be \"B\" or higher. A rating of \"B/C\" shall not be considered to be \"B\" or higher. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:38.191Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 28012
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7627/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Alabama.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kay Ivey",
- "probability": 0.6851851851851851,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim James",
- "probability": 0.14814814814814814,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.13888888888888887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Zeigler",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stacy George",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dean Odle",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:43.409Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 19393
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kay Ivey, Tim James, Lynda Blanchard, Jim Zeigler, Stacy George, Dean Odle"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic ticket?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7629/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-on-the-2024-Democratic-ticket",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:47.270Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 54166
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the Democratic nominee in the TX-30 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7630/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-TX-30-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirtieth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jasmine Crockett",
- "probability": 0.8584905660377359,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jessica Mason",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jane Hamilton",
- "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vonciel Jones Hill",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Zachariah Manning",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abel Mulugheta",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shenita Cleveland",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:51.449Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 8831
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jasmine Crockett, Jessica Mason, Jane Hamilton, Vonciel Jones Hill, Zachariah Manning, Abel Mulugheta, Shenita Cleveland"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Republican governors will there be after the midterms?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7632/How-many-Republican-governors-will-there-be-after-the-midterms",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the number of State governors with a Republican party affiliation, at the End Date listed below. \nParty affiliation shall refer to Senator's ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference on the day of the election. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "22 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "24",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "25",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "26",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "27",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "28",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "29",
- "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "30",
- "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "31",
- "probability": 0.1485148514851485,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "32 or more",
- "probability": 0.4059405940594059,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:54.600Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 32130
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "22 or fewer, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which 2022 Senate race will be the closest?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7634/Which-2022-Senate-race-will-be-the-closest",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2022 Senate election that is won by the smallest percentage margin of the popular vote between the first-place and second-place candidates. Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, this market shall be resolved according to the popular vote count of the last reported round. Should any election go to a second round, this market shall be resolved according to the results from that second round.\nAll listed contracts refer to regularly scheduled general election races unless otherwise stated.\nThe margin of victory shall be calculated by using the difference between the percentage of votes for the first place winner and the percentage of votes for the second place winner. Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported. In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered. \nShould the most specific data available indicate a tie between two or more contests, this market will resolve in favor of the first alphabetical state among those so tied, and in favor of a regular election over a special election in the same state. \nAdditional contracts may be added to this market subsequent to its launch.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Pennsylvania",
- "probability": 0.13725490196078433,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Georgia",
- "probability": 0.13725490196078433,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arizona",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Colorado",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alaska",
- "probability": 0.0784313725490196,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Wisconsin",
- "probability": 0.06862745098039216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "North Carolina",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Oregon",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Florida",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Missouri",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ohio",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T12:59:58.760Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 46961
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Oregon, Florida, Missouri, Ohio"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7636/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on December 10, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nGerman Chancellor Olaf Sholz's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sanna Marin",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:01.942Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 101655
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Boris Johnson, Viktor Orbán, Mario Draghi, Emmanuel Macron, Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Mark Rutte, Olaf Scholz, Sanna Marin"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many incumbent governors will lose primaries in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7639/How-many-incumbent-governors-will-lose-primaries-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of incumbent state governors who, in the 2022 primaries, contest and lose a gubernatorial primary election.\nIn states that have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, only the primary for the major party that the Governor represents shall be relevant. In states that do not have partisan primaries for gubernatorial elections, losing a primary shall be synonymous with any performance in a non-partisan primary that is insufficient to advance the Governor to the general election as a ballot-listed candidate.\nContesting a primary shall be synonymous with being a ballot-listed candidate.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.30476190476190473,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0.09523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4",
- "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "9",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:06.530Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 79483
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will early elections in the U.K. be called by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7640/Will-early-elections-in-the-UK-be-called-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 13, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, the Parliament of the United Kingdom is dissolved and an early parliamentary general election is triggered. Such election need not be scheduled to take place, nor actually take place, by the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:10.803Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18379
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden issue a veto before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7642/Will-Joe-Biden-issue-a-veto-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if President Biden issues a veto of legislation by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying veto shall include a \"pocket veto.\"\nThis market will be resolved based on the summary of vetoes on the senate.gov website, currently available upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:15.211Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 17731
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the prime minister of Hungary on July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7643/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Hungary-on-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of Hungary at the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.7403846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Péter Márki-Zay",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "László Toroczkai",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:19.787Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12723
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Viktor Orbán, Péter Márki-Zay, László Toroczkai"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much spending in the reconciliation package by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7646/How-much-spending-in-the-reconciliation-package-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the final Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) Cost Estimate of the total outlays, including discretionary, mandatory, and any other category of spending, over ten years for the first qualifying reconciliation package bill signed into law subsequent to the launch of this market on December 15, 2021, and before the End Date listed below. \nFor the purposes of this market, a bill shall be considered a qualifying reconciliation package if it is passed pursuant to the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, and if the CBO Cost Estimate of total outlays for the bill is greater than $300 Billion over ten years. A bill that raises the federal debt limit but does not meet the above condition shall not be sufficient to settle this market. \nIf the CBO Cost Estimate does not include a specific estimate over a time period of ten years, this market shall use the cost estimate for the longest time period that both includes a defined cost estimate and is shorter than ten years. \nShould no qualifying reconciliation bill be signed into law before the End Date listed below, the contract identifying the range “$0.6T or lower” shall resolve as yes.\nAny CBO Cost Estimate released after a bill is signed into law will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "$0.6T or lower",
- "probability": 0.6055045871559633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$0.6T to $0.8T",
- "probability": 0.055045871559633024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$0.8T to $1T",
- "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$1T to $1.2T",
- "probability": 0.055045871559633024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$1.2T to $1.4T",
- "probability": 0.07339449541284403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$1.4T to $1.6T",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$1.6T to $1.8T",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$1.8T to $2.0T",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$2.0T to $2.2T",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$2.2T or more",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:23.500Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 459740
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "$0.6T or lower, $0.6T to $0.8T, $0.8T to $1T, $1T to $1.2T, $1.2T to $1.4T, $1.4T to $1.6T, $1.6T to $1.8T, $1.8T to $2.0T, $2.0T to $2.2T, $2.2T or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7649/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on December 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, \"Justice\" means either a Chief Justice or an Associate Justice.\nConfirmation of a sitting Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice is sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:28.603Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 268803
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7652/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-New-Mexico-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:34.632Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 9307
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by April 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7653/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-April-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on December 21, 2021, but in a vote that concludes prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:38.605Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 60522
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7659/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Illinois-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:44.417Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12436
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-28 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7660/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-28-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Twenty-Eighth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jessica Cisneros",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Henry Cuellar",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tannya Benavides",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:49.513Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 44463
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jessica Cisneros, Henry Cuellar, Tannya Benavides"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be president of Italy on March 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7663/Who-will-be-president-of-Italy-on-March-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the President of Italy on the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2022 6:01 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sergio Mattarella",
- "probability": 0.8249999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Silvio Berlusconi",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rosy Bindi",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "P. Ferdinando Casini",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paolo Gentiloni",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marta Cartabia",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gianni Letta",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matteo Salvini",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elisabetta Casellati",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Giuliano Amato",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Franco Frattini",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Letizia Moratti",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marcello Pera",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Giulio Tremonti",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elisabetta Belloni",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrea Riccardi",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paolo Maddalena",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roberto Cassinelli",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guido De Martini",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guido Crosetto",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sabino Cassese",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:54.580Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 305572
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sergio Mattarella, Silvio Berlusconi, Rosy Bindi, Mario Draghi, P. Ferdinando Casini, Paolo Gentiloni, Marta Cartabia, Gianni Letta, Matteo Salvini, Elisabetta Casellati, Giuliano Amato, Franco Frattini, Letizia Moratti, Marcello Pera, Giulio Tremonti, Elisabetta Belloni, Andrea Riccardi, Paolo Maddalena, Roberto Cassinelli, Guido De Martini, Guido Crosetto, Sabino Cassese"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through May?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7665/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-May",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2022 7:01 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:00:57.917Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 152181
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7667/Who-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Michigan.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "James Craig",
- "probability": 0.5728155339805825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Rinke",
- "probability": 0.20388349514563106,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tudor Dixon",
- "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Garrett Soldano",
- "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Cox",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John James",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lisa McClain",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jack O'Malley",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Kelley",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donna Brandenburg",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Brown",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ralph Rebrandt",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:03.748Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 7045
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "James Craig, Kevin Rinke, Tudor Dixon, Garrett Soldano, Mike Cox, John James, Lisa McClain, Jack O'Malley, Ryan Kelley, Donna Brandenburg, Michael Brown, Ralph Rebrandt"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7673/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2022 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the \"Tie Votes\" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).\nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3 or fewer votes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9 votes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or 11 votes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12 or 13 votes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or 15 votes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16 or 17 votes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18 or 19 votes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20 or more",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:07.637Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 15724
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "3 or fewer votes, 4 or 5 votes, 6 or 7 votes, 8 or 9 votes, 10 or 11 votes, 12 or 13 votes, 14 or 15 votes, 16 or 17 votes, 18 or 19 votes, 20 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many federal judges will be confirmed by Feb. 18?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7674/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Feb-18",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2022.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of federal judges who will have been confirmed by the United States Senate to their positions in the federal judiciary between the beginning of the 117th Congress and the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the federal judiciary is understood to consist of the following five types of courts –\nUnited States District Courts (including territorial courts), United States Courts of Appeals, the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of International Trade, and the Supreme Court of the United States.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but has not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/18/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/21/2022 11:13 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: Neither the Superior Court of the District of Columbia nor the District of Columbia Court of Appeals are considered part of the federal judiciary as defined in the Rules, and judges confirmed to these courts will not be counted for purposes of resolving this market.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "46 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "47 or 48",
- "probability": 0.4807692307692307,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49 or 50",
- "probability": 0.13461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51 or 52",
- "probability": 0.125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53 or 54",
- "probability": 0.10576923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55 or 56",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or 58",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "59 or 60",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61 or 62",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 or more",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:13.201Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 86315
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the IL-06 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7675/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-IL-06-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Illinois' Sixth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sean Casten",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marie Newman",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:17.365Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6157
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sean Casten, Marie Newman"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-35 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7676/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-35-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Thirty-Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Greg Casar",
- "probability": 0.8725490196078431,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Viagran",
- "probability": 0.0784313725490196,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eddie Rodriguez",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla-Joy Sisco",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:21.425Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6692
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Casar, Rebecca Viagran, Eddie Rodriguez, Carla-Joy Sisco"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair by March 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7678/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Jerome-Powell-as-Federal-Reserve-chair-by-March-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jerome Powell (the \"Nominee\") to be Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\"). \nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "61 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.055045871559633024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.08256880733944953,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.14678899082568805,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.2110091743119266,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.1834862385321101,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.1559633027522936,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.055045871559633024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "86 or more",
- "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:26.784Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 28137
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "61 or fewer, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Lael Brainard as Fed vice chair by March 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7679/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Lael-Brainard-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-March-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Lael Brainard (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"51 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"76 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "51 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52 to 54",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55 to 57",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 to 60",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61 to 63",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "64 to 66",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "67 to 69",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "70 to 72",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "73 to 75",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "76 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:30.989Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 24067
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "51 or fewer, 52 to 54, 55 to 57, 58 to 60, 61 to 63, 64 to 66, 67 to 69, 70 to 72, 73 to 75, 76 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TX-03 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7681/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TX-03-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Third Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Van Taylor",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keith Self",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Suzanne Harp",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rickey Williams",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:34.846Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 4965
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Van Taylor, Keith Self, Suzanne Harp, Rickey Williams"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic attorney general nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7682/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-attorney-general-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rochelle Garza",
- "probability": 0.48672566371681414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Jaworski",
- "probability": 0.327433628318584,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lee Merritt",
- "probability": 0.09734513274336282,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Fields",
- "probability": 0.08849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:38.075Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3321
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rochelle Garza, Joe Jaworski, Lee Merritt, Mike Fields"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7685/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Charlie Crist",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Fried",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annette Taddeo",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:41.449Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 7524
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Annette Taddeo"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic lieutenant governor nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7686/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-lieutenant-governor-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Michelle Beckley",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Collier",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carla Brailey",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:45.961Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3062
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Beckley, Mike Collier, Carla Brailey"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7688/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Wisconsin.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Kleefisch",
- "probability": 0.6952380952380952,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.27619047619047615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jonathan Wichmann",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Fischer",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:50.669Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 2132
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rebecca Kleefisch, Kevin Nicholson, Jonathan Wichmann, Adam Fischer"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 nomination for Dallas County district attorney?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7690/Who-will-win-the-2022-nomination-for-Dallas-County-district-attorney",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for District Attorney of Dallas County, Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "John Creuzot",
- "probability": 0.7777777777777777,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Frizzell",
- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:01:56.048Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 659
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "John Creuzot, Elizabeth Frizzell"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate break legislative filibuster with less than 3/5 support in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7692/Will-the-Senate-break-legislative-filibuster-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 12, 2022, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nA cloture vote on a motion to proceed shall be relevant for the resolution of this market. \nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying invocation of cloture must occur through a recorded vote. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:01.062Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13414
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel hold a national election for Knesset in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7693/Will-Israel-hold-a-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on January 12, 2022, but before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:06.934Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6292
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Maryland Democratic attorney general nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7694/Who-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-Democratic-attorney-general-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Attorney General of Maryland.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Anthony G. Brown",
- "probability": 0.6306306306306306,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katie O'Malley",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luke Clippinger",
- "probability": 0.00900900900900901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Feldman",
- "probability": 0.00900900900900901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank Kratovil",
- "probability": 0.00900900900900901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "April Delaney",
- "probability": 0.00900900900900901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:10.389Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 438
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Anthony G. Brown, Katie O'Malley, Luke Clippinger, Brian Feldman, Frank Kratovil, April Delaney"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected Milwaukee mayor in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7696/Who-will-be-elected-Milwaukee-mayor-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Milwaukee, Wisconsin in the 2022 mayoral special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Cavalier Johnson",
- "probability": 0.7326732673267327,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Earnell Lucas",
- "probability": 0.0891089108910891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lena Taylor",
- "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bob Donovan",
- "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marina Dimitrijevic",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Sampson",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:16.474Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 5213
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Cavalier Johnson, Earnell Lucas, Lena Taylor, Bob Donovan, Marina Dimitrijevic, Michael Sampson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rochelle Walensky remain CDC director through the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7697/Will-Rochelle-Walensky-remain-CDC-director-through-the-end-of-the-year",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rochelle Walensky holds the office of Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:21.890Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 5980
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TX-08 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7699/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TX-08-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Eighth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Morgan Luttrell",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christian Collins",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jonathan Hullihan",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan McKaughan",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Taylor Whichard",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:27.017Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 4653
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Luttrell, Christian Collins, Jonathan Hullihan, Dan McKaughan, Taylor Whichard"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Robert Califf as FDA commissioner by April 15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7700/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Robert-Califf-as-FDA-commissioner-by-April-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Robert Califf (the \"Nominee\") to be Commissioner of Food and Drugs at the Department of Health and Human Services (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"46 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"63 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "46 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "47 or 48",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49 or 50",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51 or 52",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53 or 54",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55 or 56",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or 58",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "59 or 60",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61 or 62",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 or more",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:31.372Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3803
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "46 or fewer, 47 or 48, 49 or 50, 51 or 52, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Anthony Fauci remain NIAID director through the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7702/Will-Anthony-Fauci-remain-NIAID-director-through-the-end-of-the-year",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dr. Anthony Fauci holds the office of Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:37.497Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 18033
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7704/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.9207920792079208,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:41.997Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 5999
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Electoral Count Act be amended by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7705/Will-the-Electoral-Count-Act-be-amended-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 19, 2022 and by the End Date listed below, federal legislation is enacted that amends the Electoral Count Act. For purposes of this market, any amendment to 3 U.S. Code §§ 1-18 shall be sufficient to resolve this market to Yes. \nEnactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law. The timing with which relevant amendments go into effect shall not be considered relevant for resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:46.177Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 11405
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through February?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7708/Will-Boris-Johnson-remain-British-prime-minister-through-February",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2022 7:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:51.150Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 105578
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 Punjab Legislative election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7710/Which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2022-Punjab-Legislative-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that wins the highest number of seats in the 2022 election to the Punjab Vidhan Sabha, also known as Legislative Assembly. Should two or more such parties be tied for first place, this market will resolve in favor of the party, among those tied, winning the highest share of the popular vote. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Aam Aadmi Party",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Congress Party",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shiromani Akali Dal",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bharatiya Janata",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:55.538Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 63893
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Aam Aadmi Party, Congress Party, Shiromani Akali Dal, Bharatiya Janata"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the TX-15 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7713/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-TX-15-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Texas' Fifteenth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eliza Alvarado",
- "probability": 0.37735849056603776,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ruben Ramirez",
- "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michelle Vallejo",
- "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Julio Garza",
- "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vanessa Tijerina",
- "probability": 0.09433962264150944,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Rigney",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:02:58.800Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 225
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eliza Alvarado, Ruben Ramirez, Michelle Vallejo, Julio Garza, Vanessa Tijerina, John Rigney"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Larry Hogan run in the 2022 Maryland Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7714/Will-Larry-Hogan-run-in-the-2022-Maryland-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Larry Hogan is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Maryland. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Hogan running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:02.133Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 663
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump be charged with a crime in Georgia by Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7715/Will-Trump-be-charged-with-a-crime-in-Georgia-by-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if the State of Georgia, or any county, municipality, or other subdivision thereof, unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below. \nAn indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:06.230Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 13709
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for the America COMPETES Act by April 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7716/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-America-COMPETES-Act-by-April-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the US House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 26, 2021 and by the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of a bill that provides funding to support US semiconductor manufacturing and appropriates funds to a federal office tasked with promoting the resilience of supply chains. This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website house.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"220 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"253 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "220 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.33663366336633666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "221 to 224",
- "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "225 to 228",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "229 to 232",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "233 to 236",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "237 to 240",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "241 to 244",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "245 to 248",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "249 to 252",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "253 or more",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:10.511Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 12459
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "220 or fewer, 221 to 224, 225 to 228, 229 to 232, 233 to 236, 237 to 240, 241 to 244, 245 to 248, 249 to 252, 253 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7718/Who-will-be-the-next-Supreme-Court-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual nominated by the President, subsequent to the launch of this market on January 26, 2022, to the position of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. It is not necessary for the nominee to be confirmed by the Senate in order for the associated contract to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "K. Brown Jackson",
- "probability": 0.5083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "J. Michelle Childs",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Leondra Kruger",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Wilhelmina Wright",
- "probability": 0.025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "C. Jackson-Akiwumi",
- "probability": 0.016666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "L. Abrams Gardner",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sherrilyn Ifill",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tiffany Cunningham",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ojetta Thompson",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eunice Lee",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "D. Holley-Walker",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Melissa Murray",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anita Earls",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Holly Thomas",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arianna Freeman",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nancy Abudu",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:14.237Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 1537434
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "K. Brown Jackson, J. Michelle Childs, Leondra Kruger, Wilhelmina Wright, C. Jackson-Akiwumi, L. Abrams Gardner, Sherrilyn Ifill, Tiffany Cunningham, Ojetta Thompson, Eunice Lee, Kamala Harris, D. Holley-Walker, Melissa Murray, Anita Earls, Holly Thomas, Arianna Freeman, Nancy Abudu"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice by April 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7719/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-by-April-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Chief Justice or Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on January 27, 2022, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. \nConfirmation of an Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice is sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:17.685Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 33260
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Sarah Bloom Raskin as Fed vice chair by April 15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7720/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Sarah-Bloom-Raskin-as-Fed-vice-chair-by-April-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Sarah Bloom Raskin (the \"Nominee\") to be Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "48 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.5132743362831858,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49",
- "probability": 0.035398230088495575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.18584070796460175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.061946902654867256,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.061946902654867256,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.035398230088495575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371678,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371678,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371678,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or more",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371678,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:20.849Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6771
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm a SCOTUS nominee by July 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7722/How-many-votes-to-confirm-a-SCOTUS-nominee-by-July-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, after January 27, 2022 but before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of a nominee to join the Supreme Court of the United States (the \"Office\"). The first qualifying confirmation vote shall be used to settle this market. A vote to elevate an Associate Justice to the position of Chief Justice shall not be relevant for purposes of this market.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"48 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"57 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. However, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "48 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.12500000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "49 ",
- "probability": 0.01785714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.08035714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.08035714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.16071428571428573,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.08035714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.053571428571428575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.053571428571428575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57 or more",
- "probability": 0.20535714285714288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:24.984Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 158073
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "48 or fewer, 49 , 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be on Feb. 4?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7723/What-will-Joe-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Feb-4",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below. The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls entitled \"Polling Data\", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html (\"the Settlement Source\"), at the row labeled as as \"RCP Average.\" \nAny number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled \"RCP Average\" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.\nShould the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/4/2022 11:00:00 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "39.7% or lower",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "39.8% to 40.0%",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.1% to 40.3%",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.4% to 40.6%",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684213,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.7% to 40.9%",
- "probability": 0.2631578947368421,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.0% to 41.2%",
- "probability": 0.5087719298245614,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.3% to 41.5%",
- "probability": 0.14035087719298248,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.6% to 41.8%",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684213,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.9% or higher",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:30.616Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 275320
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "39.7% or lower, 39.8% to 40.0%, 40.1% to 40.3%, 40.4% to 40.6%, 40.7% to 40.9%, 41.0% to 41.2%, 41.3% to 41.5%, 41.6% to 41.8%, 41.9% or higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Republican nomination in the TN-05 House election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7724/Who-will-win-the-Republican-nomination-in-the-TN-05-House-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nomination in the 2022 election to the United States House of Representatives from Tennessee's Fifth Congressional District.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Morgan Ortagus",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robby Starbuck",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "\"Kid Rock\" Ritchie",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Quincy McKnight",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:34.581Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 736
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Morgan Ortagus, Robby Starbuck, \"Kid Rock\" Ritchie, Quincy McKnight"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many votes to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB director by May 6?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7725/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-director-by-May-6",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young (the \"Nominee\") to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget (the \"Office\").\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate; the contract identifying the range \"53 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"70 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. The official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source, shall be used to resolve this market. Provided that, once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by any Senator to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.\nEnd Date: 05/06/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "53 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.17857142857142858,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54 or 55",
- "probability": 0.11607142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56 or 57",
- "probability": 0.16964285714285712,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or 59",
- "probability": 0.17857142857142858,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "60 or 61",
- "probability": 0.11607142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 or 63",
- "probability": 0.08035714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "64 or 65",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "66 or 67",
- "probability": 0.02678571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 or 69",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "70 or more",
- "probability": 0.0625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:40.678Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 3774
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "53 or fewer, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or 67, 68 or 69, 70 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the most seats in the 2022 Australian federal election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7726/Who-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2022-Australian-federal-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party or listed coalition that wins the highest number of seats in the 2022 election to the Australian House of Representatives. Should two or more such parties or the listed coalition be tied for first place, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition, among those tied, that comes first alphabetically, based on the name provided in the listed contract. \nFor purposes of this market, the contract titled \"Lib-Nat Coalition\" will resolve based upon the combined number of seats won by the Liberal Party of Australia, the Liberal National Party of Queensland (which may be referred to as the Liberal National Party), the National Party of Australia, and the Country Liberal Party. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Labor",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lib-Nat Coalition",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greens",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:44.103Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 128
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Labor, Lib-Nat Coalition, Greens"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Feb. 9?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7727/What-will-Joe-Biden's-538-job-approval-rating-be-for-Feb-9",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval rating for February 9 at the End Date listed below. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using \"All Polls\", as displayed on the graph for February 9 at the End Date listed below. \nAny number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than February 9 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market; however, should the graph not display a number for February 9, this market shall resolve based on the most recent number displayed at the End Date for a prior day.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "40.6% or lower",
- "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40.7% to 40.9%",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.0% to 41.2%",
- "probability": 0.14018691588785046,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.3% to 41.5%",
- "probability": 0.19626168224299065,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.6% to 41.8%",
- "probability": 0.21495327102803738,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41.9% to 42.1%",
- "probability": 0.1588785046728972,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.2% to 42.4%",
- "probability": 0.08411214953271028,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.5% to 42.7%",
- "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42.8% or higher",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:48.446Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 31516
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "40.6% or lower, 40.7% to 40.9%, 41.0% to 41.2%, 41.3% to 41.5%, 41.6% to 41.8%, 41.9% to 42.1%, 42.2% to 42.4%, 42.5% to 42.7%, 42.8% or higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will lead in 538 Congressional generic ballot polling for Feb. 9?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7728/Which-party-will-lead-in-538-Congressional-generic-ballot-polling-for-Feb-9",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "**Please note that the this market now resolves on Thursday based on the polling average for Wednesday**\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the difference in the FiveThirtyEight Congressional generic ballot polling average for the 2022 midterm election, for February 9 at the End Date listed below. \nThe official polling lead will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"Do Voters Want Democrats Or Republicans In Congress?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/, as displayed on the graph for February 9 at the End Date listed below. Should the graph not display a number for February at the End Date, this market shall resolve based on the number displayed at the End Date for the most recent prior day.\nThe polling lead will be calculated by subtracting the number displayed on the graph for February 9 for \"Republicans\" from the number displayed for \"Democrats,\" or vice versa depending on which party is leading or if there is a tie. No other method of calculating the generic ballot leader shall be relevant. Should the relevant polling average contain either a tie or a Democratic lead, the contract identifying the range \"≤ GOP 0.8%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/10/2022 10:00 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "≤ GOP 0.8%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 0.9%-1.1%",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 1.2%-1.4%",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 1.5%-1.7%",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 1.8%-2.0%",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 2.1%-2.3%",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 2.4%-2.6%",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP 2.7%-2.9%",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "GOP ≥ 3.0%",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:52.513Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3,
- "shares_volume": 6271
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "≤ GOP 0.8%, GOP 0.9%-1.1%, GOP 1.2%-1.4%, GOP 1.5%-1.7%, GOP 1.8%-2.0%, GOP 2.1%-2.3%, GOP 2.4%-2.6%, GOP 2.7%-2.9%, GOP ≥ 3.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that the [rockets carried sarin](http://info.publicintelligence.net/UN-SyriaChemicalAttack.pdf), a deadly nerve agent used as a chemical weapon.\nThere was initial skepticism that the Syrian government would have ordered such an attack, risking retaliation by the US. But information published by the US, UN, and Human Rights Watch during the following weeks convinced Western public opinion that the Syrian government was indeed responsible. This information included:\n1--Proof that the [volcano rockets found in Zamalka were locally manufactured by the government](https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/10/syria-government-likely-culprit-chemical-attack). \n2--[Rocket trajectories reported by the UN that were shown to intersect at a Syrian army base](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/18/world/middleeast/un-data-on-gas-attack-points-to-assads-top-forces.html). \n3--Detection of sarin, which was known to be held by the Syrian government. \n4--[Reports by the US government that the rockets had been launched from government territory](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21). \n5--Finally, [Syria’s agreement to dismantle their chemical weapons program](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Destruction_of_Syria%27s_chemical_weapons) was further seen as an admission of guilt. At that point the issue mostly disappeared from public discourse. \nHowever, over time, some of this evidence has been found to be unreliable, while new evidence has surfaced that seems to better support the hypothesis that opposition forces were behind the attack. These include:\n1--Analysis of the rocket’s range showing that it could not have been launched from the army base initially suspected as the origin. \n2--[Errors in the UN trajectory calculations](http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/) that, together with the new rocket range calculation, point to a launch from opposition territory. \n3--Evidence of multiple instances in which the opposition used sarin or [tried to acquire it](http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/turkish-syrian-jihadis-chemical-court.html). \n4--[Videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlcbBTjh2EU) apparently showing an opposition group (Liwa al-Islam) launching chemical rockets, which match the time and location of the attack on Ghouta. \nThis attack, and others that followed, are the subject of heated international debate, which significantly increased the risk of a US-Russian military conflict on at least three occasions. The world clearly needs an unbiased analysis of this case using advanced inference tools.\n\nUpdate: In June 2021, the videos of the event were corroborated as authentic. They were matched to a field within opposition controlled territory, and that field has been shown to be in the intersection of seven trajectories calculated from images of the impact sites. [See additional evidence](https://blog.rootclaim.com/new-evidence-2013-sarin-attack-in-ghouta-syria).\n\nWe now consider this issue closed, and no longer see a need for a probabilistic analysis, as the new discoveries are clear enough to understand using standard human reasoning. We're leaving the analysis here for reference, and recording our original estimate: 87% Opposition, 13% Syrian army.\n\nNote: While we don’t expect anyone to apply at this point, the Rootclaim $100,000 debate challenge is still available for this issue. [Read more here](http://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.036109738906225514,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.9638902610937745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.709Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack., Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack."
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "When a novel coronavirus was first identified in late 2019, the assumption was that, like most epidemics, it was of a zoonotic source. A few studies, including [one published in the prestigious Nature magazine](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#auth-1), concluded that the virus is not a laboratory construct.\nToday, claiming a non-zoonotic origin is widely [considered a conspiracy theory](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/09/conspiracies-covid-19-lab-false-pandemic), and indeed many such claims are easily refutable without requiring probabilistic inference.\nHowever, the possibility of a lab escape does require serious examination, especially when considering the proximity of the source to a major coronavirus lab and [several unusual findings in the genome of SARS-CoV-2](https://bit.ly/3d0yZId). Due to the complexities of weighing an unlikely lab origin against findings that are unlikely for a zoonotic source, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n\nThis analysis is part of the Rootclaim $100,000 challenge, open to anyone who disagrees with our calculated conclusion. [Read more](https://rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically.",
- "probability": 0.031240153462625254,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident.",
- "probability": 0.8269448252439308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released.",
- "probability": 0.034711280233216756,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers.",
- "probability": 0.10710374106022696,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.709Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically., The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident., The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released., The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers."
- },
- {
- "title": "Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "The [2020 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) officially concluded with president Joe Biden declared the winner over his opponent, former President Donald Trump. The results have been disputed by many, including Trump, claiming the Biden victory was obtained illegally, by various means of election fraud. Due to the complexity of the US election system and the number of fraud claims raised, the issue is not easily settled, and a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.",
- "probability": 0.8474962690751916,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.",
- "probability": 0.07757191512692231,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.",
- "probability": 0.06511457976886398,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.",
- "probability": 0.009817236029022127,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome., The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people., The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment., The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based."
- },
- {
- "title": "Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/does-vitamin-d-reduce-the-severity-of-covid-19-outcomes",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "There is a heated debate regarding the effectiveness of vitamin D in improving COVID-19 outcomes. While numerous studies show a correlation, many claim it is due to confounding factors. A few controlled trials showed a strong effect, but the most notable one, conducted in [Córdoba, Spain](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960076020302764), had significant flaws that prevented it from being widely accepted.\nMore studies are underway, and within a year or so we will likely get a more certain answer, but a probabilistic analysis of currently available information can reach a useful conclusion faster, potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives.\nAdditionally, the conclusion below is included in the [Rootclaim $100,000 challenge](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/).\nNote: this is a simplified analysis; the full version was published in September 2020 [on the Rootclaim blog](https://blog.rootclaim.com/vitamin-d-can-likely-end-the-covid-19-pandemic/). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes.",
- "probability": 0.02185526954832443,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes.",
- "probability": 0.14643030597377368,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2.",
- "probability": 0.05463817387081107,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5.",
- "probability": 0.48567265662943165,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20.",
- "probability": 0.2914035939776591,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20."
- },
- {
- "title": "What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, seemingly without a trace. Investigators have struggled to discover what caused the plane to disappear as well as where it ended up. With only sparse evidence available, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\nFlight MH370 left Kuala Lumpur at approximately 0:41 local Malaysian time (16:41 [UTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time)), heading towards Beijing. It stopped transmitting its location and lost contact with civilian radar around 1:21, northeast of Kuala Lumpur. At about the same time, a Malaysian military radar detected a plane heading west from the location of flight MH370. That plane was last seen over the Andaman sea at 2:22.\n![image] (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg/440px-MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg.png)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.",
- "probability": 0.9303855144518759,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.",
- "probability": 0.040451544106603274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.",
- "probability": 0.021068512555522584,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.",
- "probability": 0.004577391856729619,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down).",
- "probability": 0.00028091350074030126,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.",
- "probability": 0.003236123528528264,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide., The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide., Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours., Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane., Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down)., The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane."
- },
- {
- "title": "What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On Friday, December 15, 2017, billionaire pharmaceutical entrepreneur Barry Sherman and his wife Honey were found dead in their home in Toronto. [Sherman was one of the wealthiest Canadians](http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2017/12/15/canadian-pharmaceuticals-billionaire-and-wife-found-dead-in-toronto-mansion/#5734bf2b7fe2), and the Shermans gave considerable sums to [philanthropic causes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/17/barry-and-honey-sherman-canadian-pm-leads-mourning-of-billionaire-couple), as well as business ventures and [political campaigns](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). The Shermans were [found in their home, by an indoor pool, and police determined that they died of strangulation](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). Although police stated that the circumstances of the deaths \"[appear to be suspicious](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html),\" they also noted that there were no immediate suspects and initially investigated the case as [a potential homicide-suicide](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/16/murder-suicide-is-the-working-theory-for-police-investigating-death-of-billionaire-and-his-wife.html). Friends and family of the Shermans declared from the outset that this must have been a homicide, insisting that the Shermans wouldn't have taken their own (or one another's) lives. On Friday January 26, Toronto police [announced that they were treating the case as a double homicide](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/barry-and-honey-shermans-death-now-ruled-as-double-homicide/article37745567/), without revealing any additional evidence.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Barry and Honey were both murdered.",
- "probability": 0.7651433409264672,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Barry and Honey committed suicide together.",
- "probability": 0.13874736684819586,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself.",
- "probability": 0.0961092922253371,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.710Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Barry and Honey were both murdered., Barry and Honey committed suicide together., Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself."
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Donald Trump's hair is a mystery; it has been compared to[ cotton candy](http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/09/politics/jeb-bush-stephen-colbert-late-show-extras/) (by Jeb Bush and Stephen Colbert),[ soft serve ice cream](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trumps-hair-soft-serve-dairy/story?id=33818262) at Dairy Queen (by Hillary Clinton on Saturday Night Live), a[ rare caterpillar](http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-caterpillar-2016-9), and[ other objects](http://www.boredpanda.com/donald-trump-hair-look-alikes/). While[ The Donald](http://www.amazon.com/TrumpNation-The-Art-Being-Donald/dp/1422366189) claims that he has a full head of natural hair, others doubt his story, suggesting that he has an involved comb over covering his baldness, that he wears a toupee, or that he has undergone surgery to reconstruct his hairline.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery.",
- "probability": 0.6014630328803353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump has hair plug transplants.",
- "probability": 0.311266661641781,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump wears a toupee.",
- "probability": 0.05523460705178658,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over).",
- "probability": 0.030328877509767715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head.",
- "probability": 0.0013827991564558896,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International).",
- "probability": 0.00032402175987351645,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery., Donald Trump has hair plug transplants., Donald Trump wears a toupee., Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over)., Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head., Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International)."
- },
- {
- "title": "Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of [Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-hernandez-not-guilty-in-2012-double-homicide/)). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself.",
- "probability": 0.9672599583106107,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No. Someone else killed Hernandez.",
- "probability": 0.032740041689389265,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself., No. Someone else killed Hernandez."
- },
- {
- "title": "Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "[Hae Min Lee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Hae_Min_Lee) was a high school senior in Baltimore, Maryland, who disappeared on January 13, 1999. When her body was found a month later on February 9, an investigation ensued that relied heavily on information provided by Jay Wilds, a marijuana dealer who had graduated from Hae's high school. The police claimed to have focused on Hae's ex-boyfriend, Adnan Syed, following a tip from an anonymous caller and information provided by Jenn (a friend of Jay but not of Adnan). After Adnan’s conviction, the case was featured in the podcasts [Serial](http://serialpodcast.org/) and [Undisclosed](http://undisclosed-podcast.com/), and some of the new evidence and arguments led the court to [overturn Adnan's conviction and grant him a new trial](https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jul/01/serial-adnan-syed-new-trial-hae-min-lee-murder). Followers of the case have made[ maps containing significant locations](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zERAsrjje-sU.kQFffQE6h2vk), [multiple](http://i.imgur.com/E11E8WM.jpg) possible [timelines](http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/pulse_embed/public/2014/11/05/serial_tl_1-6_770.png) have been suggested, and debates have ensued on forums such as [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III).",
- "probability": 0.5377257381473797,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.3135449100891127,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).",
- "probability": 0.08451102649131251,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.04682696694032147,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).",
- "probability": 0.01393535852010411,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM).",
- "probability": 0.0018381056042367754,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.0008436308886018265,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee.",
- "probability": 0.0007742633189311423,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III)., Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM)., Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee., Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee."
- },
- {
- "title": "What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On April 4, 2017, Khan Sheikhoun, Syria came under attack. There were reports of dozens dead and hundreds injured, with those affected displaying signs of exposure to sarin.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.8253215707870933,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack.",
- "probability": 0.16344300992585953,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents.",
- "probability": 0.011235419287047115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.711Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack., The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack., A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents."
- },
- {
- "title": "Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On December 20, 2015, Steve Harvey incorrectly announced Miss Colombia as the winner at the Miss Universe pageant before announcing the actual winner, Miss Philippines. While some believed this was an honest mistake, others thought it was a scripted move to generate buzz for the floundering pageant industry. Meanwhile, the internet responded with multiple [memes of Steve Harvey making mistakes](http://abc7ny.com/entertainment/the-funniest-reactions-to-steve-harvey-announcing-the-wrong-miss-universe-winner/1130613/); Steve Harvey himself even released a [meme poking fun at the mix-up](https://twitter.com/IAmSteveHarvey/status/680446179209916421/photo/1) and starred in a related [T-Mobile Superbowl ad](https://youtu.be/eI8YZdejPKg).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake.",
- "probability": 0.9620014460508962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge.",
- "probability": 0.033854158022774763,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together.",
- "probability": 0.00414439592632885,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge.",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake., The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge., The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together., Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge."
- },
- {
- "title": "Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? ",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On September 19, 2016 at around 7 PM local time, [a UN aid convoy carrying vital supplies for tens of thousands of Syrian civilians in a besieged area south-west of Aleppo was attacked](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37430824) as it was being unloaded at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) warehouse in Urum al-Kubra. 18 civilians were killed, 18 of the 31 trucks were completely destroyed, and neighboring buildings, including the warehouse and a clinic, were damaged in the three-hour attack.\nFollowing the attack, [Russia ](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN11R238?il=0)and the [United States](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/syria-ceasefire-is-over-says-countrys-military) blamed one another. Russia offered a number of claims, some contradictory. The [UN](http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/syria-unsarc-convoy-hit-urum-al-kubra-northwest-aleppo-city) and [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/20/syria-investigate-attack-un-aid-convoy) both called for an investigation and raised the possibility that this was a deliberate attack on civilians, and thus a war crime. The attacks highlighted the [collapse](http://time.com/4500719/syria-ceasefire-aid-convoy-aleppo/) of a fragile week-long cease-fire that had been supported by Russia and the US.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.416998344156324,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.",
- "probability": 0.3996231698874853,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.12766875086273002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.051659883539936315,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The US Air Force carried out the attack.",
- "probability": 0.0040498515535244296,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack., The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly., The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack., Opposition ground forces carried out the attack., The US Air Force carried out the attack."
- },
- {
- "title": "Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On the evening of July 15, 2016, the world was surprised by news of a military coup in process in Turkey. Top politicians, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, and heads of the military and police were [attacked](http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1471502/turkeys-president-erdogan-minutes-away-from-death-after-coup-plotters-stormed-hotel/) or [detained](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-military-chief-rescue-idUSKCN0ZW0C8), [media outlets were taken over](http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/18/middleeast/turkey-failed-coup-explainer/), and [armed soldiers took over the streets](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36816045). After President Erdogan issued a call to action using his mobile phone, [Turkish civilians streamed onto the streets](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-astonishing-pictures-show-violent-clashes-and-mobs-attacking-soldiers-attempting-to-a7140406.html) and [confronted the Turkish military](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/brutal-moment-civilians-throw-stones-and-stamp-on-a-turkish-tank/), ultimately [thwarting the coup](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/turkey-failed-coup-attempt-161217032345594.html). In the aftermath of the coup attempt, the Turkish government blamed Fethullah Gulen and urged the US government to extradite him, while arresting, suspending or firing [hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-minister-idUSKBN15F12G?il=0). Gulen for his part [condemned the coup](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/opinion/fethullah-gulen-i-condemn-all-threats-to-turkeys-democracy.html?_r=0) and denied any connection to it. Half a year later, the Turkish government was still [prosecuting Gulen in absentia](http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-puts-270-plotters-on-trial-over-failed-coup-10748757), [sparring with Germany and Greece](http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-urges-germany-deny-asylum-coup-linked-soldiers-45127682) about the extradition of Turks allegedly involved in the coup attempt, and warning countries in [Africa](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/turkish-president-lands-in-mozambique-for-talks/2017/01/24/49ffed02-e21f-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.a5a440925941) and [Asia ](http://english.almanar.com.lb/101957)about any involvement with the Gulen movement.\nTurkey has a [history of coups](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124472814687973.html), typically being led by the military, with the stated goal of upholding Kemalist values, including secularism, and restoring order. Historically Turkish politics has been dominated by Kemalism, but over the last fifteen years, [religious parties have gradually become the most influential actors in Turkish politics](https://www.brookings.edu/research/turkey-the-new-model/), including the Sufi and modernist-leaning movement of Fethullah Gulen, and Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (the AKP). The AKP calls its ideology \"conservative democratic,\" focused on increasing religious freedom in the public sphere and economic liberalism; its critics allege [censorship of free press and illiberal authoritarianism](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/opinion/turkeys-authoritarian-drift-election-erdogan.html?_r=0).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt.",
- "probability": 0.9469540803576163,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack.",
- "probability": 0.03625608693681129,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt.",
- "probability": 0.016789832705572445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt., Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack., Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt."
- },
- {
- "title": "Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Although Osama Bin Laden became the world's[ most wanted man](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/02osama-bin-laden-obituary.html) after September 11, 2001, with a[ 25 million dollar bounty](http://abcnews.go.com/Business/osama-bin-ladens-death-25-million-reward-remain-secret/story?id=13526284) on his head, it took almost a decade before he was finally located and killed. On May 2, 2011, two dozen US Navy Seals landed outside of a large compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, shooting and killing Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden's body was later dropped in the sea.\nThe raid on the compound, the killing of Bin Laden, and the revelation that he had apparently been hiding out in Pakistan for years, caught the world by surprise. A number of questions were raised, including whether the government of Pakistan, or its military intelligence, had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in the country, and whether the US had informed Pakistan of the impending raid.\nNote: this analysis assumes that the US account of the capture is accurate. Some have doubted the veracity and accuracy of this account, a controversy that may be analyzed by Rootclaim in the future.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.",
- "probability": 0.8191041703878119,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.",
- "probability": 0.09563276276017901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. ",
- "probability": 0.08526306685200913,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. "
- },
- {
- "title": "Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Since around 2006, Jamaica has supplied many of the world's fastest sprinters. Some have used [genetics ](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-2412477/What-makes-Usain-fellow-runners-bolt-THE-SPORTS-GENE-BY-DAVID-EPSTEIN.html)to explain the [Jamaican dominance in sprinting](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.html?_r=1), some [credit the Jamaican environment](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/18/490346468/a-surprising-theory-about-jamaicas-amazing-running-success), while others believe that it is the result of rampant cheating in the form of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At the center of this debate is Usain Bolt, first recognized when he became the youngest gold medalist ever at the 2002 Junior World Championships. After establishing himself as a professional sprinter, Bolt won 17 of his 18 races between 2007 and 2016, capturing 17 gold medals and setting multiple world records. Since Bolt wins races against athletes known to have taken PEDs, some wonder if Bolt became the world's fastest man by taking PEDs himself.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.",
- "probability": 0.7469908609359496,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.",
- "probability": 0.21943257968810703,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.",
- "probability": 0.03357655937594347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.713Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career."
- },
- {
- "title": "Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-july-28-2015-serbian-lottery-drawing-rigged-11364",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On July 28, 2015, a live broadcast of the Serbian lottery drawing [appeared to show one of the winning numbers before it was drawn](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DxUvX5tsqY&feature=youtu.be&t=14). This led to widespread [accusations](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33746126) [of ](http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN0Q41V120150730)[corruption ](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/serbian-lottery-probe-after-winning-number-called-before-its-drawn-10430922.html)in the media, and an [official investigation](http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/serbian-lottery-investigated-police-after-6164657) into the circumstances of the irregularities.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately.",
- "probability": 0.994999181403421,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging.",
- "probability": 0.004795710863869053,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging.",
- "probability": 0.00020510773270973915,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging."
- },
- {
- "title": "Why was Seth Rich killed?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "On July 10, 2016, at 4:20 AM, [DNC staffer Seth Rich](http://www.popville.com/2016/07/early-morning-shooting-in-bloomingdale/) was found suffering from gunshot wounds at an intersection near his home in Bloomingdale, Washington D.C. He died at a local hospital a few hours later. No arrests have been made so far in the subsequent investigation.\nWhile the general assumption is that Rich died in a failed robbery attempt, some evidence, such as the fact that his belongings were not taken, gave rise to the theory that his murder had to do with his position at the DNC. [When Julian Assange mentioned Rich a month after the murder](http://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2124316-assange-belooft-nieuwe-onthullingen-over-clinton.html) these suspicions amplified, since Assange's words were [interpreted](http://forward.com/news/national/347668/newt-gingrich-just-fanned-the-flames-of-seth-rich-conspiracy-theories/) by many to mean that Rich was a WikiLeaks source.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong.",
- "probability": 0.8899299168589954,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee.",
- "probability": 0.09615579336720934,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee.",
- "probability": 0.01391428977379551,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee."
- },
- {
- "title": "Why was Stonehenge built?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "Stonehenge may be the most famous of all megaliths. Various theories attribute its construction to Druids, Merlin, and even aliens. Although it is clear that Stonehenge was deliberately constructed, no one really knows why. This analysis focuses on the original purpose for which it was built, irrespective of what its functions may have been after it was constructed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.",
- "probability": 0.8105659668974038,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a burial site.",
- "probability": 0.1313461492124186,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.",
- "probability": 0.056899570682862534,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.",
- "probability": 0.0011883132073152599,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe.",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship., Stonehenge was built as a burial site., Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker., Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing., Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe."
- },
- {
- "title": "Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "The number of autism cases has increased significantly in the past few decades, from approximately [1 in 2,500 children](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf) in 1966 to [1 in 68](http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html) in 2016. The increase in the number of autism cases is attributed in part to [improved screening and broadening of the diagnostic criteria](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf).\nThe alleged association between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism began in 1998, when Andrew Wakefield and several coauthors published a research paper in The Lancet, a leading British medical journal, suggesting a link between them. Wakefield's findings caused great concern among parents in the UK and the US and[ led to a significant drop in vaccinations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH1obrIZ54k&feature=youtu.be&t=350) of children. Numerous subsequent studies have failed to support an association between the administration of the vaccine and autism spectrum disorder. Beginning in 2004, British investigative journalist Brian Deer wrote several articles accusing Wakefield of concealing conflicts of interest, manipulating evidence, and other unethical research practices. In 2010 The Lancet [retracted Wakefield's study](http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2960175-4/abstract) after several elements in the study were found to be "incorrect, contrary to the findings of an earlier investigation."\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism.",
- "probability": 0.9989448582556197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. ",
- "probability": 0.00092438670468488,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet.",
- "probability": 0.00013075503969541352,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism., The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. , The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet."
- },
- {
- "title": "Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?",
- "url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129",
- "platform": "Rootclaim",
- "description": "In July 2014, Ukraine was fighting with the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), a separatist organization and self-proclaimed state in the Ukraine that supports Russia. On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down and crashed over DNR territory.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).",
- "probability": 0.9526172817647263,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).",
- "probability": 0.022161263441175128,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).",
- "probability": 0.020142059292511075,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).",
- "probability": 0.005079395501587589,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:03:54.714Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1,
- "stars": 4
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR)."
- },
- {
- "title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Contracts to be added on request",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sajid Javid",
- "probability": 0.034713909504429014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rory Stewart",
- "probability": 0.0007980209081477935,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
- "probability": 0.011411698986513445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Penny Mordaunt",
- "probability": 0.0591333492937515,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeremy Hunt",
- "probability": 0.07597159045566994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Cleverly",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dominic Raab",
- "probability": 0.01731705370680712,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Tugendhat",
- "probability": 0.09280983161758838,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0.018992897613917484,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amber Rudd",
- "probability": 0.00007980209081477934,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Johnny Mercer",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0.02952677360146836,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew Hancock",
- "probability": 0.004947729630516319,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Truss",
- "probability": 0.10501955151224962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gavin Williamson",
- "probability": 0.031920836325911736,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrea Leadsom",
- "probability": 0.011411698986513445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoffrey Cox",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tobias Ellwood",
- "probability": 0.010613678078365654,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Steve Baker",
- "probability": 0.027531721331098876,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Ruth Davidson",
- "probability": 0.018992897613917484,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Esther McVey",
- "probability": 0.003192083632591174,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Philip Hammond",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.29335248583512885,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Oliver Dowden",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Kwasi Kwarteng",
- "probability": 0.007980209081477934,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Grant Shapps",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Houchen",
- "probability": 0.015960418162955868,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kemi Badenoch",
- "probability": 0.011411698986513445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Wallace",
- "probability": 0.03798579522783497,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bim Afolami",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stephen Barclay",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Jenrick",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Graham Brady",
- "probability": 0.005346740084590217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Davis",
- "probability": 0.022184981246508657,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alok Sharma",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Nadine Dorries",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Mark Harper",
- "probability": 0.009975261351847418,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Robert Buckland",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thérèse Coffey",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Suella Braverman",
- "probability": 0.003032479450961615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ranil Jayawardena",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Eustice",
- "probability": 0.01332694916606815,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nadhim Zahawi",
- "probability": 0.023461814699545128,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jesse Norman",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gillian Keegan",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Aaron Bell",
- "probability": 0.001596041816295587,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:04:56.574Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Johnny Mercer, Michael Gove, Matthew Hancock, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood, Steve Baker, Ruth Davidson, Esther McVey, Philip Hammond, Rishi Sunak, Oliver Dowden, Kwasi Kwarteng, Grant Shapps, Ben Houchen, Kemi Badenoch, Ben Wallace, Bim Afolami, Stephen Barclay, Robert Jenrick, Graham Brady, David Davis, Alok Sharma, Nadine Dorries, Mark Harper, Robert Buckland, Thérèse Coffey, Suella Braverman, Ranil Jayawardena, George Eustice, Nadhim Zahawi, Jesse Norman, Gillian Keegan, Aaron Bell"
- },
- {
- "title": "Gender of next Conservative leader",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Male",
- "probability": 0.694631483166515,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Female",
- "probability": 0.305368516833485,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:04:57.440Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Male, Female"
- },
- {
- "title": "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Derek Mackay",
- "probability": 0.0396192742415229,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Humza Yousaf",
- "probability": 0.16073765615704938,
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- {
- "name": "Stewart Hosie",
- "probability": 0.1189767995240928,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Mhairi Black",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shona Robison",
- "probability": 0.08209399167162404,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Swinney",
- "probability": 0.0991076740035693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keith Brown",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joanna Cherry",
- "probability": 0.10814991076740035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Angus Robertson",
- "probability": 0.14872099940511602,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Alex Salmond",
- "probability": 0.11326591314693635,
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- {
- "name": "Michael Matheson",
- "probability": 0.12932778108268886,
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- {
- "name": "Tommy Sheppard",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Angela Constance",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roseanna Cunningham",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kate Forbes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:04:58.473Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Derek Mackay, Humza Yousaf, Stewart Hosie, Mhairi Black, Shona Robison, John Swinney, Keith Brown, Joanna Cherry, Angus Robertson, Alex Salmond, Michael Matheson, Tommy Sheppard, Angela Constance, Roseanna Cunningham, Kate Forbes"
- },
- {
- "title": "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05111088970808011,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9488891102919199,
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2022-02-04T13:04:59.345Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will succeed Boris Johnson as Prime Minister of the UK? Contracts added on request.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
- "probability": 0.0050661171217585435,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nigel Farage",
- "probability": 0.0017173278378842523,
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- {
- "name": "Jo Swinson",
- "probability": 0.011420230121930278,
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- {
- "name": "Keir Starmer",
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- "title": "Number of seats held by the Green Party after the next general election",
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- "name": "Two or more",
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- "title": "Nicola Sturgeon to be First Minister at next Holyrood election",
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- "description": "Will Nicola Sturgeon still be First Minister on the day of the next Scottish Parliamentary election?",
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- "title": "Poland to leave the EU",
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- "description": "Will Poland leave the EU, vote to leave the EU, or trigger Article 50 before the end of 2024?",
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- "title": "2022 French presidential election: First round winner",
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- "description": "Which candidate will receive the most votes in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",
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- "name": "Marine Le Pen",
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- "name": "Éric Zemmour",
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- "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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- "probability": 0,
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- "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
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- "title": "2022 Pennsylvania Senate election winner",
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- "description": "Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election?",
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- "title": "2022 Arizona Senate election winner",
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- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the 2022 Arizona Senate election?",
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- "title": "2022 Florida Senate election winner",
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- "description": "Which party will win the 2022 Florida Senate election?",
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- "title": "2022 Alaska Senate election winner",
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- "description": "Which party will win the 2022 Alaska Senate election?",
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- "description": "Which party will win the 2022 Iowa Senate election?",
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- "description": "Which party will win the 2022 Missouri Senate election?",
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- "title": "France to leave the EU",
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- "title": "Croydon Mayoral Election",
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- "name": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040",
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- "probability": 0.013437245729273723,
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- {
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- "probability": 0.013437245729273723,
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- "probability": 0.013437245729273723,
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Paul Ryan",
- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.010228351226760597,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.006785143883098613,
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- "probability": 0.006785143883098613,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Mike DeWine",
- "probability": 0.006785143883098613,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.006785143883098613,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.006785143883098613,
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- "probability": 0.005438885176134603,
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- "probability": 0.004538407497966622,
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- "probability": 0.004538407497966622,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.004538407497966622,
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- "probability": 0.0034094504089201986,
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tucker Carlson, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Dwayne Johnson, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ted Cruz, Beto O'Rourke, Michelle Obama, Amy Klobuchar, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Candace Owens, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jnr, Josh Hawley, Ivanka Trump, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Andrew Cuomo, Dan Crenshaw, Gretchen Whitmer, Andrew Yang, Michael Bloomberg, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Kanye West, Gavin Newsom, Bernie Sanders, Mike DeWine, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Jared Kushner, Megan Rapinoe, Meghan Markle, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Mark Zuckerberg"
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- {
- "title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
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- "description": "Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)\n\nOrd writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.17,
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- "title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Will MacAskill (~2019)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
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- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours (~2017)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "John Leslie (~1996)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- {
- "title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Martin Rees (~2003)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Metaculus responders (~2021)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.\n\nWhile the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
- "url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Nick Bostrom (~2002)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Gott III (~1993)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Wells (~2009)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9965,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
- "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Simpson (~2016)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.2%\n\nBeard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Ozzie Gooen (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
- "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Survey of AI experts (~2017)"
- },
- "description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0-10%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Ben Garfinkel (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.1-1%\n\nGarfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "James Fodor (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential risk from AI",
- "url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 5-30%\n\nI put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
- "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2014)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33%\n\nStated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
- "url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Jaan Tallinn (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 33-50%\n\nThis comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.585,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.00004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
- "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0000019,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999981,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "James Fodor (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0002%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0100%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)\n\nSee this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~33% (\"about one in three\")\n\nOrd: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\"",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Survey of experts in the AI field (~2016)"
- },
- "description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~20%\n\nThis may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~2%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
- "url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Luke Oman (~2012)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)\n\nI think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 30-40%\n\nArden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
- },
- "description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
- },
- "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.1%\n\nReduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
- },
- "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
- "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nSo, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
- "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~20-30%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nThere’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nI haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~50%\n\nBasically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 1.10%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.011,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.989,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
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- "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)"
- },
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.38%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0038,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.5,
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
- },
- "description": "",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
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- "description": "",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
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-index title url qualityindicators
-0 How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/899-how-will-the-ratio-of-china-authored-to-u-s-authored-highly-cited-ai-papers-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 35; numforecasters: 28; stars: 2
-1 How will the percentage of U.S. residents with "very little" or "some" trust in the U.S. military change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/864-how-will-the-percentage-of-u-s-residents-with-some-or-very-little-trust-in-the-u-s-military-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 64; numforecasters: 59; stars: 2
-2 Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/349-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-in-the-next-six-months numforecasts: 69; numforecasters: 62; stars: 2
-3 How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/410-how-politically-polarized-will-u-s-citizens-be-in-2024 numforecasts: 140; numforecasters: 122; stars: 3
-4 How will the combined annual dollar amount of DoD contracts with the "Big 5" tech companies change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/311-how-will-the-combined-annual-dollar-amount-of-dod-contracts-with-the-big-5-tech-companies-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 44; numforecasters: 36; stars: 2
-5 How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/382-how-will-the-percentage-of-smic-revenue-from-14-28-nm-chips-or-smaller-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 35; numforecasters: 27; stars: 2
-6 How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/422-how-will-the-percentage-of-u-s-residents-who-are-concerned-about-how-the-government-uses-their-data-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 85; numforecasters: 72; stars: 2
-7 How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/396-how-will-the-combined-annual-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 59; numforecasters: 51; stars: 2
-8 How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/389-how-will-the-geopolitical-risk-gpr-index-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 62; numforecasters: 53; stars: 2
-9 Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/527-will-the-u-s-military-acknowledge-using-an-autonomously-operated-drone-to-identify-and-deploy-lethal-force-against-a-human-target-in-the-next-four-quarters-year numforecasts: 84; numforecasters: 76; stars: 2
-10 How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/350-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 36; numforecasters: 33; stars: 2
-11 How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/403-how-will-money-raised-for-private-u-s-tech-companies-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 31; numforecasters: 28; stars: 2
-12 How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/445-how-will-the-percentage-of-highly-cited-u-s-ai-publications-supported-by-a-dod-grant-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 34; numforecasters: 31; stars: 2
-13 How will the percentage of DoD subcontracts for scientific research and development services going to Northern California-based companies change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/332-how-will-the-percentage-of-dod-subcontracts-for-scientific-research-and-development-services-going-to-northern-california-based-companies-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 24; numforecasters: 20; stars: 2
-14 How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/339-how-will-the-number-of-defense-innovation-unit-transitions-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 29; numforecasters: 23; stars: 2
-15 How will the percentage of Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) computer science graduates whose first job is at a company that has a contract with DoD change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/368-how-will-the-percentage-of-carnegie-mellon-university-cmu-computer-science-graduates-whose-first-job-is-a-company-that-has-a-contract-with-dod-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 33; numforecasters: 27; stars: 2
-16 How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/374-how-will-the-number-of-japanese-air-force-responses-to-threats-to-japan-s-territorial-airspace-by-chinese-military-aircraft-change-over-the-next-three-years numforecasts: 43; numforecasters: 29; stars: 2
-17 Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/373-will-china-execute-an-acknowledged-national-military-attack-against-vietnam-india-or-taiwan-in-the-next-six-months numforecasts: 109; numforecasters: 87; stars: 3
-18 Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/372-will-china-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-feature-in-the-south-china-sea-in-the-next-six-months numforecasts: 77; numforecasters: 61; stars: 2
-19 When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/171-when-will-joe-biden-cease-to-be-president-of-the-united-states numforecasts: 179; numforecasters: 114; stars: 3
-20 Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022 numforecasts: 160; numforecasters: 101; stars: 3
-21 When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/168-when-will-1-billion-people-in-india-receive-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine numforecasts: 253; numforecasters: 136; stars: 3
-22 Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the "Big 5" tech companies against the company's involvement with DoD in the next four quarters (year)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/442-will-there-be-an-organized-employee-protest-at-one-of-the-big-5-tech-companies-against-the-company-s-involvement-with-dod-in-the-next-year numforecasts: 60; numforecasters: 50; stars: 2
-23 [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/155-experimental-what-will-be-the-median-foretell-forecast-on-whether-covid-19-originated-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china-on-october-1-2021 numforecasts: 274; numforecasters: 95; stars: 3
-24 [Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/154-experimental-did-covid-19-originate-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china numforecasts: 331; numforecasters: 139; stars: 3
-25 Will the Democratic Party maintain its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/150-will-the-democratic-party-maintain-its-majority-in-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-after-the-midterm-elections-in-2022 numforecasts: 249; numforecasters: 109; stars: 3
-26 What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/141-what-will-the-big-5-tech-companies-average-reputation-ranking-be-in-the-2022-harris-poll numforecasts: 279; numforecasters: 99; stars: 3
-27 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/134-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-have-a-chinese-co-author-in-2022 numforecasts: 194; numforecasters: 67; stars: 3
-28 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/132-what-percentage-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-reference-ai-ethics-in-2022 numforecasts: 212; numforecasters: 70; stars: 3
-29 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/131-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-in-2022 numforecasts: 185; numforecasters: 56; stars: 3
-30 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/129-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2022 numforecasts: 165; numforecasters: 43; stars: 3
-31 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/128-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2022 numforecasts: 143; numforecasters: 38; stars: 3
-32 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/130-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-in-2022 numforecasts: 150; numforecasters: 42; stars: 3
-33 Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 190; numforecasters: 49; stars: 3
-34 Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 172; numforecasters: 49; stars: 3
-35 Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 169; numforecasters: 47; stars: 3
-36 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022 numforecasts: 304; numforecasters: 81; stars: 3
-37 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 numforecasts: 206; numforecasters: 50; stars: 3
-38 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 numforecasts: 211; numforecasters: 57; stars: 3
-39 Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 numforecasts: 652; numforecasters: 194; stars: 3
-40 What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 numforecasts: 429; numforecasters: 137; stars: 3
-41 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 numforecasts: 548; numforecasters: 188; stars: 3
-42 % global rate of "$1.90 a day" poverty in 2030 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-43 A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608 numforecasts: 4; stars: 2
-44 A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-45 Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-46 5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6 numforecasts: 7; stars: 2
-47 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-48 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d numforecasts: 4; stars: 2
-49 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7 numforecasts: 7; stars: 2
-50 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-51 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-52 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-53 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-54 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-55 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-56 What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-57 How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781 numforecasts: 6; stars: 2
-58 Will MIRI still exist in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba numforecasts: 7; stars: 2
-59 How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-60 Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-61 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131 numforecasts: 8; stars: 2
-62 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-63 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a numforecasts: 4; stars: 2
-64 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-65 What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534 numforecasts: 4; stars: 2
-66 What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-67 What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53 numforecasts: 4; stars: 2
-68 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-69 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-70 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-71 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-72 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-73 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-74 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-75 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-76 At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-77 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-78 At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275 numforecasts: 6; stars: 2
-79 At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-80 At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-81 At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d numforecasts: 15; stars: 2
-82 Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78 numforecasts: 9; stars: 2
-83 At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507 numforecasts: 28; stars: 2
-84 At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463 numforecasts: 53; stars: 2
-85 When will the outbreak end? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70 numforecasts: 27; stars: 2
-86 By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-87 By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-88 By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-89 How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-90 By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-91 By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-92 By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-93 By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-94 By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-95 By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-96 How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d numforecasts: 4; stars: 2
-97 By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-98 By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-99 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826 numforecasts: 6; stars: 2
-100 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-101 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-102 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-103 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-104 How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-105 Will Labour win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d numforecasts: 7; stars: 2
-106 Will Conservatives win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786 numforecasts: 9; stars: 2
-107 If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-108 If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-109 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91 numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-110 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-111 Will Brexit be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-112 If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-113 When will the next UK general election be? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d numforecasts: 4; stars: 2
-114 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-115 If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3 numforecasts: 11; stars: 2
-116 Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba numforecasts: 5; stars: 2
-117 What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-118 If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-119 If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-120 What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-121 What fraction of 80,000 hours' impact is not related to career plan changes? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c3ba1c83-fd04-47af-b8c1-7b493b0519e6 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-122 What proportion of donations to FHI go to Oxford University? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c6587fcf-5113-4603-9d90-c9763a099476 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-123 How much influence would CSET have in a 2024 Republican US administration, relative to its influence in a 2024 US Democratic administration? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/fee03eb4-c956-4f61-81e6-76e2f76616c3 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-124 Has CSET done more harm than good so far in its policy interventions? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/623499ee-19dd-4d2a-b100-614a3a0b032a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-125 Will CLR's work on their "Cooperation, conflict, and transformative artificial intelligence"/"bargaining in artificial learners" agenda be favorably reviewed in Lark's 2021 yearly AI alignment review?? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cf4e48f1-3781-45b4-830a-d315435dc472 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-126 Is there a better option than CLR for suffering-focused donors? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/a2250763-8700-4768-96ba-215fd9d7739a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-127 What fraction of CLR's research is only useful from a suffering-focused standpoint? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e65ceadf-f35d-42ff-adb0-f30ec57a25d4 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-128 Will Rethink Priorities employ 5 FTEs producing high-quality longtermist research by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6a8a92c1-2740-4e21-98a6-6c4311bc8461 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-129 Will Rethink Rethink Priorities be able to productively expand into the longtermist sphere? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/76d54743-3136-448d-adc6-de57d4eada9e numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-130 Will Rethink Priorities be able to produce research in the long-termist space similar in quality to the research they have produced on invertebrate welfare? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b0083e46-4dee-4281-a324-605657773834 numforecasts: 3; stars: 2
-131 How many FTE-years worth of high-quality research does LessWrong produce each year per FTE-year employed at LessWrong? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/1a6642cc-a4e3-427f-be75-39f05023ca7f numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-132 How many FTE-years worth of high-quality research does LessWrong produce per year? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/fbfde3f4-ed4c-44a1-8beb-4aa4389e3787 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-133 Is Projekt Framttid dead? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/5700fd38-7ac3-4380-baaa-b00351ba3e9c numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-134 Conditional on its continued existence, by 2025, will MacAskill still be the CEO of the Forethought Foundation? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/5260868a-c5cc-4f6f-acf5-b2293f718487 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-135 Will the Forethought Foundation continue to exist by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e919e049-40cc-4155-9bda-9e2a47b0ea50 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-136 How many FTEs does FLI currently employ (as of 2021)? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/59ad32cb-17f3-4242-a440-5a4d44ffcfd7 numforecasts: 2; stars: 2
-137 Will further work on a theory of malevolence be fruitful by 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f689875d-fe82-43ee-88a6-0c414791f4d9 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-138 What percentage of CSER's research staff is doing high value work? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/d2aa8a4c-77e4-4a4a-8f1c-a4b85932922c numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-139 Will the APPFG continue to exist by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b54917c1-f67c-4003-aff7-de188cc47879 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-140 Conditional on its continued existence, will the APPG help pass legislation in the UK related to its mission by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6b379bd0-4659-45e4-b3d7-b769aed7c020 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-141 By, 2025, will the APPGFG help pass legislation in the UK related to its mission? https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/301c0ffe-7697-4b7a-9908-4bee72642236 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-142 $100M to alternate foods is more cost-effective than to AI risk mitigation https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/704c1052-8e0b-4582-8feb-604a8c452ac3 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-143 $100M to alternate foods is more cost-effective than to AI risk mitigation (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/62c003c4-2525-4830-84ed-93686dc8cae1 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-144 Marginal money now on alternate foods is more cost effective than on AI risk mitigation https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b1a21ed8-7819-467c-8a63-98b0c85993ef numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-145 Marginal money now on alternate foods is more cost effective than on AI risk mitigation (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/50d7c7a8-f46d-4427-af5f-12cbd898c40b numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-146 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall with planning and R&D as well https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/451d4013-d302-43c5-b2c3-bacc7d82ed59 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-147 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall with planning and R&D as well (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f7616759-f00b-4fd1-a10e-0a281541efc6 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-148 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall from ALLFED so far https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/1a16fcf9-e155-4157-b02b-f9d2d546368c numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-149 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall from ALLFED so far (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/ff6231c6-3def-4663-82b7-d2d605bf37db numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-150 Untruncated reduction in far future potential due to 10% agricultural shortfall https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6084ec83-df7b-4af7-8c58-612b491e6946 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-151 Untruncated reduction in far future potential due to 10% agricultural shortfall (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/36fdd2c9-7829-4fae-9222-ab0d1795d5b5 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-152 Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c24a076b-d045-43d2-b3d4-b555227fae30 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-153 Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/07b1924e-0581-410f-a34c-3e87cfcd278a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-154 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of war due to ALLFED so far https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cd78ff36-da47-4411-ab67-d20eb0811333 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-155 Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of war due to ALLFED so far (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/805f614e-e170-4a72-9bd2-daadd4d62789 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-156 Cost of planning, R&DF for alternate foods https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f9203a65-d4ff-4aaf-95dc-39a577e2318a numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-157 Cost of planning, R&DF for alternate foods (ALLFED's estimate) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/106715d2-2484-47ac-ad1f-dcfb63ed55f8 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-158 Untruncated probability of full scale nuclear war per year https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cca72358-624a-40e5-a87a-5b14a50fdea6 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-159 Untruncated probability of full scale nuclear war per year (ALLFED's estimates) https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e147be3b-3280-43aa-a27e-a1a561c66b18 numforecasts: 1; stars: 2
-160 How many business applications will be made in the US in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2129-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2022 numforecasts: 12; numforecasters: 10; stars: 3
-161 What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2128-what-percentage-of-us-retail-sales-will-be-made-online-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022 numforecasts: 13; numforecasters: 13; stars: 3
-162 What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2127-what-will-be-the-us-office-vacancy-rate-for-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022-according-to-colliers numforecasts: 18; numforecasters: 15; stars: 3
-163 What percentage of venture capital dollars will go to US startups with female-only founders in 2022, according to Crunchbase? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2126-what-percentage-of-venture-capital-dollars-will-go-to-us-startups-with-female-only-founders-in-2022-according-to-crunchbase numforecasts: 15; numforecasters: 14; stars: 3
-164 Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2125-before-1-september-2022-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir numforecasts: 13; numforecasters: 11; stars: 3
-165 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2124-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-resulting-in-at-least-five-fatalities-before-1-september-2022 numforecasts: 20; numforecasters: 19; stars: 3
-166 When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2123-when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-reported-to-the-cdc-next-reach-or-exceed-200-000 numforecasts: 20; numforecasters: 15; stars: 3
-167 In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2119-in-united-states-v-tsarnaev-will-the-supreme-court-reinstate-the-death-sentence-imposed-against-boston-marathon-bomber-dzhokhar-tsarnaev numforecasts: 49; numforecasters: 40; stars: 3
-168 What will be the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 20 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2122-what-will-be-the-7-day-average-number-of-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-louisiana-for-the-week-ending-20-october-2021 numforecasts: 58; numforecasters: 34; stars: 3
-169 What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2120-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-31-march-2022-according-to-fivethirtyeight numforecasts: 108; numforecasters: 71; stars: 3
-170 How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2118-how-far-will-the-uae-national-football-team-advance-in-the-fifa-arab-cup-2021 numforecasts: 25; numforecasters: 22; stars: 3
-171 How much cash on hand will the following three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2121-how-much-cash-on-hand-will-the-following-three-donald-trump-affiliated-political-action-committees-pacs-have-combined-as-of-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 40; numforecasters: 25; stars: 3
-172 Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2117-will-the-rate-of-new-daily-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-per-100k-people-in-massachusetts-be-higher-on-19-october-2021-than-it-was-on-7-september-2021 numforecasts: 98; numforecasters: 38; stars: 3
-173 How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2116-how-many-job-openings-in-the-trade-transportation-and-utilities-industries-will-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-bls-report-for-november-2021 numforecasts: 62; numforecasters: 33; stars: 3
-174 How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2115-how-many-twenty-foot-equivalent-units-teus-of-cargo-will-the-port-of-los-angeles-report-for-november-2021 numforecasts: 64; numforecasters: 33; stars: 3
-175 What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2113-what-will-be-the-producer-price-index-for-internet-advertising-sales-in-june-2022 numforecasts: 33; numforecasters: 17; stars: 3
-176 How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2114-how-many-business-applications-will-be-made-in-the-us-in-2021 numforecasts: 53; numforecasters: 27; stars: 3
-177 What will be the total value of assets under management by global sustainable funds at the end of 2021, according to Morningstar? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2112-what-will-be-the-total-value-of-assets-under-management-by-global-sustainable-funds-at-the-end-of-2021-according-to-morningstar numforecasts: 53; numforecasters: 37; stars: 3
-178 What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2111-what-will-happen-next-to-the-united-arab-emirate-s-rolling-7-day-average-of-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19 numforecasts: 124; numforecasters: 56; stars: 3
-179 When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2107-when-will-the-scottish-government-officially-request-discussions-on-or-agreement-to-a-section-30-order-from-the-uk-government-that-would-enable-the-scottish-government-to-call-a-new-independence-referendum numforecasts: 107; numforecasters: 72; stars: 3
-180 Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2108-before-1-january-2022-will-president-biden-invite-prime-minister-boris-johnson-to-visit-the-white-house numforecasts: 235; numforecasters: 132; stars: 3
-181 Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" fell to 15% or lower? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2109-before-18-december-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-and-didn-t-travel-to-work-fell-to-15-or-lower numforecasts: 77; numforecasters: 58; stars: 3
-182 Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2110-before-2-october-2021-will-the-taliban-submit-credentials-to-the-secretary-general-of-the-un-to-represent-afghanistan-for-the-76th-un-general-assembly-session numforecasts: 287; numforecasters: 106; stars: 3
-183 Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2106-will-the-26th-un-climate-change-conference-of-the-parties-cop26-announce-the-finalization-of-the-paris-rulebook-the-rules-for-implementing-the-2015-paris-agreement-before-16-november-2021 numforecasts: 102; numforecasters: 76; stars: 3
-184 Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2105-will-legal-restrictions-on-the-number-of-people-who-can-meet-indoors-be-imposed-in-england-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 213; numforecasters: 132; stars: 3
-185 Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2102-will-rishi-sunak-cease-to-be-the-uk-chancellor-of-the-exchequer-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 118; numforecasters: 77; stars: 3
-186 Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2104-will-sir-keir-starmer-face-a-formal-challenge-for-the-leadership-of-the-labour-party-before-4-april-2022 numforecasts: 111; numforecasters: 74; stars: 3
-187 Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2101-will-the-liberal-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-2021-canadian-parliamentary-elections numforecasts: 200; numforecasters: 69; stars: 3
-188 Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2103-will-the-uk-or-eu-trigger-article-16-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol-before-1-february-2022 numforecasts: 99; numforecasters: 64; stars: 3
-189 Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2097-before-13-february-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-in-iran-or-at-sea-between-the-national-military-or-law-enforcement-forces-of-iran-and-those-of-either-israel-or-a-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-member-state numforecasts: 91; numforecasters: 57; stars: 3
-190 Which team will win the Major League Baseball World Series in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2098-which-team-will-win-the-major-league-baseball-world-series-in-2021 numforecasts: 140; numforecasters: 40; stars: 3
-191 Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2100-before-1-january-2022-will-kais-saied-cease-to-be-the-president-of-tunisia numforecasts: 77; numforecasters: 46; stars: 3
-192 When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2094-when-will-the-14-day-average-of-covid-19-hospitalized-patients-in-california-next-reach-or-exceed-12-000 numforecasts: 200; numforecasters: 52; stars: 3
-193 When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2095-when-will-a-sars-cov-2-variant-other-than-delta-next-represent-more-than-70-0-of-total-covid-19-cases-in-the-us numforecasts: 217; numforecasters: 102; stars: 3
-194 How many units will Ford produce in North America in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2092-how-many-units-will-ford-produce-in-north-america-in-2021 numforecasts: 116; numforecasters: 42; stars: 3
-195 Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2091-before-1-january-2022-will-the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-begin-delivering-natural-gas-to-germany numforecasts: 212; numforecasters: 70; stars: 3
-196 Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2096-before-1-november-2021-will-a-new-government-mask-mandate-for-individuals-fully-vaccinated-for-covid-19-that-includes-indoor-restaurants-and-or-retail-establishments-be-imposed-on-new-york-city numforecasts: 244; numforecasters: 78; stars: 3
-197 How many fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases will be reported to the CDC as of 10 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2093-how-many-fatal-covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-will-be-reported-to-the-cdc-as-of-10-january-2022 numforecasts: 157; numforecasters: 55; stars: 3
-198 Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2090-will-amazon-com-begin-to-accept-any-cryptocurrency-for-purchases-on-the-us-site-before-1-october-2022 numforecasts: 270; numforecasters: 156; stars: 3
-199 Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2087-will-abiy-ahmed-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia-by-way-of-extraconstitutional-events-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 85; numforecasters: 50; stars: 3
-200 Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2086-before-1-january-2023-will-the-afghan-government-and-the-afghan-taliban-sign-an-agreement-that-includes-provisions-for-the-establishment-and-or-recognition-of-a-national-government numforecasts: 223; numforecasters: 79; stars: 3
-201 Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2088-before-2-october-2021-will-the-un-general-assembly-recognize-delegates-from-the-national-unity-government-nug-as-representing-myanmar-for-the-76th-general-assembly-session numforecasts: 129; numforecasters: 47; stars: 3
-202 At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2089-at-close-of-business-on-15-december-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-3-november-2021 numforecasts: 99; numforecasters: 52; stars: 3
-203 What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2085-what-will-be-the-closing-price-per-barrel-for-west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-on-31-december-2021-according-to-bloomberg numforecasts: 322; numforecasters: 107; stars: 3
-204 What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2082-what-will-chinese-ride-hailing-company-didi-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 156; numforecasters: 40; stars: 3
-205 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2084-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-egypt-and-ethiopia-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 117; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3
-206 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2081-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-fewer-than-1-3-million-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days numforecasts: 132; numforecasters: 66; stars: 3
-207 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2079-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws numforecasts: 127; numforecasters: 86; stars: 3
-208 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2078-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-chile numforecasts: 153; numforecasters: 50; stars: 3
-209 When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2077-when-will-the-7-day-average-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-the-uk-next-fall-below-15-000 numforecasts: 612; numforecasters: 111; stars: 3
-210 What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2076-what-will-be-the-annual-change-in-the-uk-s-consumer-prices-index-cpi-for-november-2021 numforecasts: 127; numforecasters: 43; stars: 3
-211 Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2070-will-haiti-hold-a-presidential-election-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 243; numforecasters: 61; stars: 3
-212 Which driver will win the 2021 Formula One World Drivers' Championship? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2069-which-driver-will-win-the-2021-formula-one-world-drivers-championship numforecasts: 174; numforecasters: 75; stars: 3
-213 What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2072-what-will-be-total-opec-crude-oil-production-for-october-2021 numforecasts: 98; numforecasters: 31; stars: 3
-214 How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2074-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-12-november-2021 numforecasts: 267; numforecasters: 47; stars: 3
-215 When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2075-when-will-600-million-people-in-india-have-received-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine numforecasts: 398; numforecasters: 67; stars: 3
-216 Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2066-before-1-january-2022-will-the-european-commission-ec-recommend-that-the-council-of-the-european-union-authorize-the-ec-to-open-negotiations-with-taiwan-on-an-investment-agreement numforecasts: 134; numforecasters: 62; stars: 3
-217 What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 9 December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2067-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-the-global-cryptocurrency-market-on-9-december-2021-according-to-coinmarketcap numforecasts: 272; numforecasters: 76; stars: 3
-218 What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2068-what-will-be-the-value-of-the-s-p-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-index-for-october-2021 numforecasts: 206; numforecasters: 61; stars: 3
-219 As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2062-as-of-1-november-2021-will-waka-kotahi-list-321-or-more-qualifying-electrical-vehicle-ev-charging-stations-as-available-in-new-zealand numforecasts: 112; numforecasters: 39; stars: 3
-220 How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2063-how-many-new-york-city-eviction-filings-will-be-reported-for-2021 numforecasts: 162; numforecasters: 38; stars: 3
-221 Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2061-will-the-median-price-of-a-house-in-new-zealand-exceed-nz-870-000-in-december-2021-according-to-reinz numforecasts: 143; numforecasters: 49; stars: 3
-222 Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2060-will-a-member-of-the-forces-from-an-african-country-other-than-mozambique-be-killed-in-a-lethal-confrontation-in-cabo-delgado-before-1-april-2022 numforecasts: 167; numforecasters: 63; stars: 3
-223 Will the US FDA approve a drug used to reverse the effects of Alzheimer's disease on the brain and/or approve a vaccine to prevent Alzheimer's disease as of 2035? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2056-will-the-us-fda-approve-a-drug-used-to-reverse-the-effects-of-alzheimer-s-disease-on-the-brain-and-or-approve-a-vaccine-to-prevent-alzheimer-s-disease-as-of-2035 numforecasts: 202; numforecasters: 173; stars: 3
-224 How many opioid overdoses resulting in death will occur in the US in 2026? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2055-how-many-opioid-overdoses-resulting-in-death-will-occur-in-the-us-in-2026 numforecasts: 153; numforecasters: 104; stars: 3
-225 When will the first human have lived for 180 consecutive Earth days on or under the surface of the moon? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2058-when-will-the-first-human-have-lived-for-180-consecutive-earth-days-on-or-under-the-surface-of-the-moon numforecasts: 237; numforecasters: 181; stars: 3
-226 How many RNA vaccines and therapeutics for humans will be FDA-approved as of 2031? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2057-how-many-rna-vaccines-and-therapeutics-for-humans-will-be-fda-approved-as-of-2031 numforecasts: 185; numforecasters: 122; stars: 3
-227 Will the Nobel Foundation announce that artificial intelligence has won or would be eligible to win a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine before 2036? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2059-will-the-nobel-foundation-announce-that-artificial-intelligence-has-won-or-would-be-eligible-to-win-a-nobel-prize-in-physiology-or-medicine-before-2036 numforecasts: 215; numforecasters: 172; stars: 3
-228 Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2054-will-at-least-3-5-million-people-in-new-zealand-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-before-30-december-2021 numforecasts: 265; numforecasters: 98; stars: 3
-229 Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2053-will-the-us-truck-tonnage-index-reach-or-exceed-120-0-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 192; numforecasters: 61; stars: 3
-230 Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic numforecasts: 223; numforecasters: 117; stars: 3
-231 What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021 numforecasts: 113; numforecasters: 38; stars: 3
-232 How many thousand tonnes (kt) of paper and paperboard will be produced globally in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2050-how-many-thousand-tonnes-kt-of-paper-and-paperboard-will-be-produced-globally-in-2021 numforecasts: 99; numforecasters: 43; stars: 3
-233 What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2048-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-headline-inflation-in-the-us-as-measured-by-the-consumer-price-index-cpi-in-june-2022 numforecasts: 485; numforecasters: 289; stars: 3
-234 Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2045-will-the-closing-price-of-brent-crude-oil-be-higher-than-70-00-per-barrel-on-30-december-2021 numforecasts: 365; numforecasters: 105; stars: 3
-235 At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2041-at-close-of-business-on-3-november-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-22-september-2021 numforecasts: 95; numforecasters: 48; stars: 3
-236 What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2044-what-will-be-the-global-price-of-wheat-in-november-2021-according-to-the-imf numforecasts: 263; numforecasters: 50; stars: 3
-237 What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2040-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-june-2022 numforecasts: 204; numforecasters: 57; stars: 3
-238 Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2038-before-1-january-2022-will-the-us-intelligence-community-publicly-state-that-a-laboratory-accident-is-a-more-probable-scenario-for-the-inception-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-than-it-having-emerged-naturally-through-contact-with-infected-animals numforecasts: 550; numforecasters: 243; stars: 3
-239 What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2032-what-will-us-holiday-season-retail-sales-be-for-2021-relative-to-the-2020-holiday-season numforecasts: 139; numforecasters: 45; stars: 3
-240 When will people in Guangdong no longer be required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to leave the Chinese province? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2034-when-will-people-in-guangdong-no-longer-be-required-to-show-a-negative-covid-19-test-in-order-to-leave-the-chinese-province numforecasts: 132; numforecasters: 29; stars: 3
-241 Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2033-will-any-four-week-average-of-us-field-production-of-crude-oil-exceed-12-million-b-d-in-2021 numforecasts: 208; numforecasters: 49; stars: 3
-242 What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2030-what-will-be-the-us-domestic-box-office-gross-in-the-opening-weekend-for-the-next-james-bond-film-no-time-to-die numforecasts: 286; numforecasters: 66; stars: 3
-243 How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2028-how-many-total-major-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-will-occur-in-the-atlantic-ocean-in-the-2021-hurricane-season-according-to-the-national-hurricane-center numforecasts: 482; numforecasters: 106; stars: 3
-244 Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2022-which-major-cryptocurrency-will-perform-best-between-27-may-2021-and-29-november-2021 numforecasts: 339; numforecasters: 89; stars: 3
-245 Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2020-will-the-us-civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-reach-or-exceed-63-0-for-any-month-in-2021 numforecasts: 241; numforecasters: 88; stars: 3
-246 What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2017-what-will-be-the-annualized-rate-of-housing-starts-for-october-2021 numforecasts: 275; numforecasters: 78; stars: 3
-247 Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2011-before-8-january-2022-will-facebook-allow-donald-trump-to-post-on-facebook-and-or-instagram-from-any-of-his-verified-accounts numforecasts: 210; numforecasters: 113; stars: 3
-248 Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2010-before-14-december-2021-will-the-world-trade-organization-wto-officially-agree-to-grant-waivers-for-intellectual-property-protections-for-covid-19-vaccine-technology numforecasts: 195; numforecasters: 87; stars: 3
-249 According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have "listened to a podcast in the last month?" https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2001-according-to-the-infinite-dial-2022-what-percentage-of-the-us-population-will-have-listened-to-a-podcast-in-the-last-month numforecasts: 303; numforecasters: 114; stars: 3
-250 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2004-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-40-million-or-more-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-india numforecasts: 675; numforecasters: 114; stars: 3
-251 Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2005-will-a-new-collective-bargaining-agreement-cba-between-major-league-baseball-and-the-major-league-baseball-players-association-be-ratified-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 125; numforecasters: 33; stars: 3
-252 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2003-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-authorized-for-emergency-use-or-approved-by-the-us-fda-as-of-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 346; numforecasters: 103; stars: 3
-253 Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2002-will-us-print-book-sales-in-2021-exceed-those-in-2020 numforecasts: 498; numforecasters: 153; stars: 3
-254 At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1994-at-close-of-business-on-22-september-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021 numforecasts: 210; numforecasters: 72; stars: 3
-255 Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1993-before-16-december-2021-will-the-federal-reserve-announce-it-will-reduce-its-monthly-quantitative-easing-bond-buying numforecasts: 396; numforecasters: 86; stars: 3
-256 Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1995-will-us-federal-legislation-implementing-or-authorizing-a-mandatory-carbon-pricing-mechanism-become-law-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 175; numforecasters: 76; stars: 3
-257 Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1991-between-30-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-times-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang numforecasts: 276; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3
-258 Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1982-before-1-january-2022-will-the-people-s-liberation-army-pla-and-or-people-s-armed-police-pap-engage-in-a-confrontation-with-hong-kongers numforecasts: 219; numforecasters: 112; stars: 3
-259 Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1989-between-16-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-will-asml-obtain-an-export-license-from-the-netherlands-to-export-an-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-system-to-the-people-s-republic-of-china numforecasts: 180; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3
-260 Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1987-following-the-2021-german-bundestag-elections-which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-new-government numforecasts: 692; numforecasters: 115; stars: 3
-261 What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1981-what-will-be-the-chinese-renminbi-s-share-as-a-global-payments-currency-in-december-2021-according-to-swift numforecasts: 311; numforecasters: 83; stars: 3
-262 Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1984-before-1-january-2022-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-limit-or-prohibit-us-federal-funds-from-being-used-to-purchase-face-recognition-technology numforecasts: 172; numforecasters: 92; stars: 3
-263 Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1985-will-the-eu-establish-a-moratorium-or-ban-on-the-use-of-facial-recognition-systems-frs-in-public-spaces-by-public-authorities-in-premises-meant-for-education-and-healthcare-and-or-by-law-enforcement-in-semi-public-spaces-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 173; numforecasters: 75; stars: 3
-264 What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021 numforecasts: 364; numforecasters: 56; stars: 3
-265 What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021 numforecasts: 377; numforecasters: 76; stars: 3
-266 What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021 numforecasts: 617; numforecasters: 157; stars: 3
-267 Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 numforecasts: 541; numforecasters: 170; stars: 3
-268 Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km numforecasts: 634; numforecasters: 177; stars: 3
-269 Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 numforecasts: 193; numforecasters: 63; stars: 3
-270 Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 numforecasts: 327; numforecasters: 147; stars: 3
-271 Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts numforecasts: 238; numforecasters: 77; stars: 3
-272 Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 330; numforecasters: 91; stars: 3
-273 Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp numforecasts: 394; numforecasters: 108; stars: 3
-274 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa numforecasts: 775; numforecasters: 146; stars: 3
-275 Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 numforecasts: 227; numforecasters: 85; stars: 3
-276 Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 731; numforecasters: 190; stars: 3
-277 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 422; numforecasters: 206; stars: 3
-278 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 571; numforecasters: 158; stars: 3
-279 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 numforecasts: 372; numforecasters: 123; stars: 3
-280 Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities numforecasts: 394; numforecasters: 120; stars: 3
-281 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 numforecasts: 408; numforecasters: 163; stars: 3
-282 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union numforecasts: 549; numforecasters: 158; stars: 3
-283 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 numforecasts: 660; numforecasters: 174; stars: 3
-284 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 numforecasts: 435; numforecasters: 107; stars: 3
-285 Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea numforecasts: 356; numforecasters: 150; stars: 3
-286 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 numforecasts: 139; numforecasters: 60; stars: 3
-287 Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 numforecasts: 255; numforecasters: 55; stars: 3
-288 What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 760; numforecasters: 133; stars: 3
-289 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 numforecasts: 468; numforecasters: 96; stars: 3
-290 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union numforecasts: 665; numforecasters: 203; stars: 3
-291 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 numforecasts: 193; numforecasters: 48; stars: 3
-292 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world numforecasts: 358; numforecasters: 118; stars: 3
-293 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 numforecasts: 645; numforecasters: 90; stars: 3
-294 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin numforecasts: 386; numforecasters: 94; stars: 3
-295 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 1013; numforecasters: 244; stars: 3
-296 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china numforecasts: 445; numforecasters: 175; stars: 3
-297 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 numforecasts: 448; numforecasters: 169; stars: 3
-298 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher numforecasts: 186; numforecasters: 53; stars: 3
-299 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 numforecasts: 179; numforecasters: 75; stars: 3
-300 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil numforecasts: 721; numforecasters: 278; stars: 3
-301 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count numforecasts: 541; numforecasters: 155; stars: 3
-302 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws numforecasts: 1091; numforecasters: 641; stars: 3
-303 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct numforecasts: 292; numforecasters: 64; stars: 3
-304 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 numforecasts: 365; numforecasters: 86; stars: 3
-305 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics numforecasts: 1140; numforecasters: 357; stars: 3
-306 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used numforecasts: 972; numforecasters: 181; stars: 3
-307 Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-308 How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7768/apple-papers-at-neurips-2023/ numforecasts: 16; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-309 Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-310 Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/ numforecasts: 330; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-311 Will annual U.S. inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6604/us-hyperinflation-in-any-year-before-2050/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-312 Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-313 Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7839/sci-hub-to-exist-in-2023/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-314 How many seats will the Labour Party win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7650/labour-seats-at-next-uk-general-election/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-315 What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7341/percent-of-gdp-us-spends-on-healthcare-2035/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-316 Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-317 What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 25 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7866/va-vaccine-doses-administered-25-september/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-318 How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-319 What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7435/quantum-computing-private-funding/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-320 How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-321 If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-322 Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-323 When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/ numforecasts: 209; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-324 Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-325 Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7737/us-diplomatic-evacuation-in-kabul-2021/ numforecasts: 492; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-326 When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6963/transplants-without-immunosuppressants/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-327 Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7631/israel-recognizing-palestine/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-328 Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-329 When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-330 Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-331 What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7585/polish-democracy-in-2030/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-332 Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/ numforecasts: 725; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-333 When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7791/tesla-bot-us-general-availability-date/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-334 Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-335 Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/ numforecasts: 454; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-336 Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-337 Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/ numforecasts: 414; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-338 Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7139/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2021/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-339 Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-340 Assuming that the Green Party does not join the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6653/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-non-greens/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-341 Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-342 Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7736/unique-games-conjecture-resolution/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-343 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7410/countervalue-detonations-by-pakistan-by-2050/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-344 By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7963/will-the-large-child-tax-credit-be-extended/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-345 For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7371/non-farm-payroll-september-2021/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-346 Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-347 When will the US implement a national carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7877/date-us-passes-national-carbon-pricing-bill/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-348 According to COVIDcast survey results reported by the UVA Biocomplexity Institute on 1 October 2021, what percentage of Virginians will be “vaccine accepting”? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7616/-vaccine-accepting-virginians-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-349 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7848/next-leader-of-the-swedish-social-democrats/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-350 Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-351 How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-352 Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-353 When will the prize pool of an esport tournament be greater than any other sport tournament in that year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6708/esport-tournament-has-more-money-than-sport/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-354 When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-355 When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7605/date-of-pre-aug-2022-va-cli-visits-peak/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-356 Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7862/sam-bankman-fried-to-donate-1bn-before-2031/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-357 What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7366/initial-jobless-claims-september-2021/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-358 Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/ numforecasts: 456; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-359 When will the mammoth be revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-360 On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "low"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/ numforecasts: 283; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-361 Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/ numforecasts: 807; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-362 Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-363 What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7842/avatar-2-box-office/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-364 Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/ numforecasts: 258; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-365 By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7882/will-americans-care-about-space-by-2030/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-366 Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-367 Is the sunflower conjecture true? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7550/truth-of-the-sunflower-conjecture/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-368 What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7610/3rd-grader-math-test-pass-rate-for-2021-2022/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-369 What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-370 By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-371 Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/ numforecasts: 343; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-372 When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months, if it is operational through 2022-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7782/date-ingenuity-ceases-flights-for-6-months/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-373 Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-374 Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-375 Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-376 How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-377 When will a West Balkan state next join the EU? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7228/date-a-west-balkan-state-next-joins-the-eu/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-378 When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/ numforecasts: 187; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-379 What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-380 When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-381 Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/ numforecasts: 497; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-382 Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-383 Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/ numforecasts: 457; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-384 When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-385 When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7493/date-uber-becomes-cheaper-in-bay-area/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-386 What percentage of 5-11 year olds in Virginia will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7830/virginia-5-11-year-olds-vaccinations-in-2021/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-387 Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-388 Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7544/pr%25C3%25B3spera-at-10000-residents-before-2035/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-389 When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7835/self-driving-taxis-in-germany/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-390 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-391 Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/ numforecasts: 267; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-392 Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/ numforecasts: 825; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-393 Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7688/aubrey-de-grey-to-leave-sens-by-2022/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-394 Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-395 Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/ numforecasts: 427; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-396 How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-397 Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-398 When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6938/when-will-there-be-a-50b-parameter-dall-e/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-399 What will the World's GDP be in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-400 When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/ numforecasts: 274; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-401 Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-402 Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/ numforecasts: 493; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-403 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7049/2022-non-exit-investment-in-cultivated-meat/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-404 When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7614/cdc-recommends-booster-for-all-vaccinated-ppl/ numforecasts: 297; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-405 When will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7398/when-will-computers-be-competent-programmers/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-406 When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/ numforecasts: 233; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-407 When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/ numforecasts: 461; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-408 What percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-409 Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7211/us-conclude-covid-lab-leak-by-june-2022/ numforecasts: 512; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-410 What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7368/industrial-production-index-september-2021/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-411 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/ numforecasts: 244; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-412 Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7860/pakistan-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-413 When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7583/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval-longer-range/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-414 When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/ numforecasts: 652; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-415 Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-416 How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-417 Is the Collatz Conjecture true? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/ numforecasts: 234; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-418 Will Catalonia become an independent state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/ numforecasts: 408; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-419 Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7861/china-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-420 How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-421 What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6929/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-422 Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-423 By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7958/will-scotus-strike-down-fed-worker-mandate/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-424 What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-425 How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7769/amazon-papers-at-neurips-in-2023/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-426 When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/ numforecasts: 564; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-427 When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7961/date-ingenuity-is-grounded-for-6-months/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-428 When will someone first be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7880/first-extraterrestrial-murder/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-429 When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-430 When will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7319/date-of-decline-of-cafos-by-90/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-431 In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7831/us-election-2024-decided-by-supreme-court/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-432 What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-433 How many UN member states will there be in 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7761/number-of-un-members-in-2070/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-434 In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7987/commercial-paper-rate-and-cpi-wont-diverge/ numforecasts: 13; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-435 What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7776/2024-olympic-womens-100m-final/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-436 How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/ numforecasts: 230; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-437 Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-438 Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/ numforecasts: 1220; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-439 How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7896/cost-of-us-wildfires-in-2021/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-440 How big will be the first crew sent to Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-441 Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4745/dna-sequencing-read-length-5-mb-before-22/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-442 Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7784/egypt-ethiopia-water-war-before-2024/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-443 Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-444 Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-445 What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-446 What will net U.S. geothermal electricity production be in the year 2026, in GWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7728/us-net-geothermal-electricity-by-2027/ numforecasts: 13; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-447 If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-448 Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-449 Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/ numforecasts: 349; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-450 When will there be a proof (or disproof) that P=BPP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7879/date-of-proofdisproof-of-pbpp/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-451 By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 342; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-452 Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-453 Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/ numforecasts: 463; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-454 What will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7005/gdp-of-china-for-2025/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-455 When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-456 Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/ numforecasts: 166; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-457 Will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 1 August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7603/variant-of-high-consequence-before-aug-2022/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-458 What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-459 How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7897/us-happiness-ranking-from-2022-2024/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-460 When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-461 When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7766/us-elects-third-partyindependent-president/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-462 When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-463 When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/ numforecasts: 347; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-464 Will the next President of the United States be impeached? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/ numforecasts: 249; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-465 What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose for COVID-19 vaccine by end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7865/virginia-booster-dose-in-2021/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-466 What percentage of Virginia's overall population will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 on 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7617/va-overall-pop-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-467 Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/ numforecasts: 310; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-468 Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ numforecasts: 187; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-469 How many paying customers will the most used romantic AI companion have by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7232/romantic-ai-companion-customers-by-2025/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-470 What will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7383/peru-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-471 Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7492/sweden-to-have-extra-election-in-2021/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-472 When will Germany have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7218/when-germany-stops-burning-coal/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-473 How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-474 Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-475 When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7078/apple-m2-release-date/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-476 What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-477 When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-478 When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/ numforecasts: 319; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-479 Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6424/substack-to-join-cancel-culture/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-480 What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7797/lebanese-fragility-in-2022/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-481 Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/ numforecasts: 245; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-482 When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-483 When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-484 What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7858/south-african-fragility-in-2022/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-485 Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7542/over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022/ numforecasts: 384; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-486 When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-487 How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the months of August to December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7733/us-southwest-border-encounters-aug-dec-2021/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-488 Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-489 When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6969/when-will-gwp-exceed-1-quadrillion-usd/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-490 When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-491 How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-492 When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-493 Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/ numforecasts: 184; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-494 Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-495 When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-496 Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/ numforecasts: 337; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-497 Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7549/resolving-the-sunflower-conjecture/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-498 In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7136/7-day-avg-of-1-october-covid-tests-in-va/ numforecasts: 283; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-499 What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7367/total-retail-sales-september-2021/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-500 Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by 2028-07-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-2028-07-31/ numforecasts: 545; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-501 When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-502 What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-503 In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-504 Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-505 When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7483/ai-artist-to-be-credited-in-shonen-jump/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-506 When will One Piece end? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-507 When will the first woman win the World Chess Championships? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7576/date-of-first-woman-world-championship-win/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-508 Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-509 In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7829/us-state-to-overturn-election-result-2024/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-510 When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7117/when-will-75-virginians-have-1-vaccine-dose/ numforecasts: 303; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-511 What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/ numforecasts: 120; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-512 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-513 When will the first openly furry person be elected to a major US office? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6839/first-openly-furry-us-official/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-514 Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/ numforecasts: 216; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-515 How many career points will LeBron James score in the NBA regular season when he retires? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7729/lebron-james-career-points/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-516 When will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7042/us-allergy-free-wheatsoypeanut-before-eu/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-517 When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-518 Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6903/wta--atp-merger/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-519 When will Israel recognize Palestine? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7572/date-israel-recognises-palestine/ numforecasts: 73; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-520 By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7923/will-unvaccinated-patients-be-denied-icus/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-521 When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7286/1021-bytes-destroyed-by-single-event/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-522 When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7558/algorithm-for-factoring-in-polynomial-time/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-523 Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7841/non-bjp-indian-pm-before-2030/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-524 Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/ numforecasts: 249; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-525 How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-526 How high will the Haredi share of Israel's population be at its peak? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7571/haredi-share-of-israel-at-peak/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-527 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7459/countervalue-detonations-by-china-by-2050/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-528 Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 719; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-529 What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-530 Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6427/will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-531 When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7543/when-will-ar-tech-be-widely-publicly-worn/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-532 What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-533 Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-534 What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-535 When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-536 Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7216/ai-sputnik-moment-by-2050/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-537 How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-538 How high will Germany's total dependency ratio be in 2039? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7431/germanys-future-age-structure/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-539 When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/ numforecasts: 440; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-540 How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-541 Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/ numforecasts: 494; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-542 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-543 How many seats will the Scottish National Party win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7653/snp-seats-at-next-uk-election/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-544 Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-545 Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/usd-dominant-reserve-currency-in-2050/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-546 Will the Supreme Court hear Harvard vs SFFA by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7578/harvard-vs-sffa-in-supreme-court/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-547 Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7978/democrat-potus-signs-500g-budget-cut-by-2029/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-548 Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-549 What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6933/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-550 What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-551 When will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7508/10m-people-in-a-uk-biobank/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-552 Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-553 Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-554 Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7448/nasa-awards-2nd-hls-contract-in-2021/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-555 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7418/open-phil-ai-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 16; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-556 Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-557 What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-558 Robocup Challenge https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/ numforecasts: 322; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-559 Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7849/2024-us-house-midterm-election/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-560 What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7869/-va-mask-wearing-in-public-on-18-september/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-561 How many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7043/new-cultivated-meat-publications-by-2022/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-562 What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-563 Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/nanotechnology-gc-to-cause-near-extinction/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-564 When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-565 When will the US-EU border reopen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/ numforecasts: 218; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-566 How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7048/2022-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-567 Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-568 What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/ numforecasts: 387; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-569 Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-570 Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-571 When will the first human head transplant occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-572 Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-573 What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-574 Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-575 Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7523/exponential-improvement-on-diagonal-ramsey/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-576 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7039/2026-investment-in-plant-based-food-companies/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-577 Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-578 Will a new State of Emergency in response to COVID be declared in Virginia before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7635/new-va-covid-state-of-emergency/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-579 How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-580 When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-581 Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-582 When will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7721/date-of-next-nasa-moon-landing/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-583 What will be the 7-day moving average of PCR percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7870/-va-pcr-test-positivity-on-18-september/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-584 When will the VIX index climb above 50? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-585 What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7621/peak--ili-in-va-during-2021-2022-flu-season/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-586 Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/paying-us-taxes-in-bitcoin/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-587 How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7445/us-states-decriminalizing-psilocybin-by-2027/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-588 50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how much earlier will historical consensus determine it came online? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7252/gap-between-agi-creation-and-reveal/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-589 What will the land area of Singapore be in 2070 in square kilometres? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7732/land-area-of-singapore/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-590 What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7775/2024-mens-100m-final/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-591 Kessler syndrome by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/ numforecasts: 583; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-592 Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-593 What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7060/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-foods-in-2022/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-594 Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-595 Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/ numforecasts: 281; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-596 What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/ numforecasts: 196; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-597 By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-598 Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-599 Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-600 When will India become a World Bank high-income country? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-601 When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7788/australias-covid-19-vaccination-rollout/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-602 By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7969/fda-approval-of-covid-vaccine-for-kids-soon/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-603 What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/ numforecasts: 358; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-604 Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-605 When will the price of Bitcoin first drop below $6481, 10% of the all-time high value? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7469/bitcoin-price-drop-below-6481/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-606 When will North Korea become a democracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-607 Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-608 How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-609 Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-610 Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-611 Will the GOP control the senate after the 2024 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7850/the-gop-controls-the-us-senate-in-2025/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-612 Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/ numforecasts: 189; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-613 Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-614 How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-615 How far away is the nearest independent origination of life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin-of-et-life/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-616 What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-617 What will public knowledge be in the year 2061 of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7342/resolution-of-classified-us-satellites/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-618 Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-619 Will Metaculus exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 631; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-620 Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-621 What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7369/cpi-u-september-2021/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-622 When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-623 Will Climeworks still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-624 How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7462/deployed-nuclear-weapons-by-2024/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-625 Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-626 How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7413/size-of-state-nuclear-arsenals-by-2024/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-627 Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-628 How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/ numforecasts: 216; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-629 What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-630 Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7106/carlsen-retains-the-world-championship-crown/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-631 Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-632 Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7722/nuclear-sharing-and-tpnw/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-633 When will the fraction of English books that mention"Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7111/when-will-peak-deep-learning-be/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-634 Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/ numforecasts: 251; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-635 By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7886/ea-wiki-total-words-published/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-636 Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/ numforecasts: 479; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-637 What proportion of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-638 How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7247/customer-base-of-ai-assistants-in-2025/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-639 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7510/countervalue-detonation-by-india-by-2050/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-640 If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-641 Before 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7384/alien-tech-in-solar-system-before-2030/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-642 If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-643 [Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/ numforecasts: 120; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-644 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-645 How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-646 Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/ numforecasts: 426; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-647 Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-648 Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/ numforecasts: 646; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-649 Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/ numforecasts: 155; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-650 What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-651 If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 345; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-652 What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-653 When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-654 Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-655 What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7868/-va-current-hospitalizations-on-18-september/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-656 How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7546/deaths-from-covid-19-per-year-2022-2025-in-us/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-657 What percentage of seats will the PAP win in the next Singaporean general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7596/seats-won-by-the-pap-in-the-next-election/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-658 Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/ numforecasts: 373; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-659 When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-660 Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/ numforecasts: 895; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-661 What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/ numforecasts: 120; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-662 When will the James Webb telescope be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7298/james-webb-telescope-launch-date/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-663 What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 18 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7822/va-vaccine-doses-administered-18-september/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-664 Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-665 How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-666 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-667 If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-668 Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ numforecasts: 1507; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-669 How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7464/black-carbon-in-troposphere-after-nuclear-war/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-670 In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-671 What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7607/-va-covid-deaths-in-va-lctfs/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-672 Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7976/acx-mention-question-resolves-ambiguous/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-673 Will US income inequality increase by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/ numforecasts: 238; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-674 Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/ numforecasts: 208; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-675 When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-676 By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7980/will-general-milley-leave-as-cjcos/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-677 If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-678 How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-679 How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7027/total-refugee-admissions-2021-24/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-680 When will Afghanistan allow same-sex marriage? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7873/legality-of-same-sex-marriage-in-afghanistan/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-681 What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-682 Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7113/fully-autonomous-tesla-in-2021/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-683 When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/ numforecasts: 313; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-684 Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/ numforecasts: 637; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-685 Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/ numforecasts: 454; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-686 Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-687 Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7899/will-erin-otoole-be-the-next-pm-of-canada/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-688 What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-689 How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-690 Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-691 Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/ numforecasts: 359; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-692 When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-693 What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/ numforecasts: 812; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-694 Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/ numforecasts: 177; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-695 What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-696 When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7806/when-airplane-travelers-mask-free-in-usa/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-697 What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-698 Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-699 When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/ numforecasts: 342; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-700 Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-701 When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7064/5-cultivated-meat-products-sell-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-702 If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7332/money-offered-through-ea-prize-platform/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-703 When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-704 Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/ numforecasts: 727; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-705 Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-706 Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/ numforecasts: 438; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-707 When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/ numforecasts: 353; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-708 What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/12-9/18? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7864/k-12-outbreaks-in-virginia-for-sep-12-18/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-709 Will US CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7977/high-inflation-in-2022/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-710 When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/ numforecasts: 449; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-711 When will China legalise same-sex marriage? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-712 If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 833; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-713 By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/ numforecasts: 240; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-714 When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7611/date-of-covid-vaccine-for-children-under-12/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-715 Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/ numforecasts: 193; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-716 How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7909/-virginians-in-leisurehospitality-dec-2021/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-717 Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-718 How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-719 Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-720 How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7908/how-many-flights-will-ingenuity-make/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-721 Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 137; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-722 If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/ numforecasts: 217; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-723 Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/ numforecasts: 382; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-724 Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ numforecasts: 1218; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-725 Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-726 What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 205; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-727 When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/date-china-gathers-1b-citizen-genomes/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-728 Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-729 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-730 Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-731 Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/ numforecasts: 315; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-732 Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7537/250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave/ numforecasts: 273; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-733 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7051/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-meat/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-734 When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7625/date-of-va-covid-hospitalizations-peak/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-735 In how many of the 50 US states will it be legal to use psilocybin for therapy by December the 31st 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7911/psilocybin-as-a-new-drug-therapy-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-736 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based milk companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7047/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-milk/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-737 What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7061/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-eggs-in-2022/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-738 Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/ numforecasts: 1013; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-739 What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-740 When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-741 What percentage of Virginia’s 18-24 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7618/va-18-24-age-group-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 244; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-742 How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7634/-va-eviction-cases-filed-in-q4-2021/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-743 When will Singapore reopen for quarantine-free international travel? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7595/singapore-international-travel-reopens/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-744 How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7867/-va-districts-in-surge-as-of-17-september/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-745 How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-746 When will space mining be profitable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-747 If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-748 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7050/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-749 When will the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) be disproved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7630/disproving-seth/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-750 Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/ numforecasts: 274; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-751 What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/ numforecasts: 426; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-752 What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7624/va-covid-hospitalizations-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-753 Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-754 Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/ numforecasts: 215; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-755 Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-756 Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-757 What will be the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8010/best-asymptotic-upper-bound-on-mertens-func/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-758 How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-759 What will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7004/gdp-of-india-for-2025/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-760 What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-761 What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-762 Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7382/non-transitory-inflation-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-763 When will the Woke index in US elite media top? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-764 What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-765 How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-766 Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-767 Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/ numforecasts: 541; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-768 How many members will the next Bundestag have? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7739/size-of-the-2021-german-bundestag/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-769 Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-770 What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7622/va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-771 When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-772 Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7138/boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022/ numforecasts: 235; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-773 When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7623/date-of-va-covid-cases-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-774 When will Virginia’s pre-October peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7627/date-of-va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-775 When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-776 Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/ numforecasts: 1515; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-777 Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/ numforecasts: 252; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-778 Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ numforecasts: 5344; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-779 Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/ numforecasts: 381; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-780 Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-781 What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-782 What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ numforecasts: 415; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-783 Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-784 When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ numforecasts: 452; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-785 What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/ numforecasts: 285; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-786 Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-787 When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7019/world-over-1-million-covid-daily-cases/ numforecasts: 114; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-788 How many seats will the Conservative Party win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7651/conservative-seats-at-next-uk-election/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-789 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7424/open-phil-global-health-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-790 Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/ numforecasts: 369; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-791 Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/ numforecasts: 306; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-792 What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-793 If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-794 When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-795 What will be official attendance at the 2021 University of Virginia vs Virginia Tech football game? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7606/attendance-at-2021-uva-vs-virginia-tech-game/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-796 What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-797 What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-798 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-799 Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-800 When will AIs program programs that can program AIs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/ numforecasts: 559; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-801 Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/ numforecasts: 318; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-802 Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/ numforecasts: 242; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-803 Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/ numforecasts: 188; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-804 How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/ numforecasts: 12; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-805 How high will China's total dependency ratio be in 2039? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7430/china-demographic-dependency/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-806 What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-807 In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-808 Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-809 Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-810 Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-811 Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/ numforecasts: 353; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-812 When will the first use of accurate lie detection in court case occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6619/first-accurate-lie-detection-in-court-case/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-813 Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-814 When will Amazon deliver some products by drone? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-815 Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-816 Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/ numforecasts: 434; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-817 How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-818 How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-819 How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-820 What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7370/eia-crude-oil-stock-september-2021/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-821 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-822 Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7740/marijuana-legalization-in-republican-states/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-823 Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-824 World Population in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/ numforecasts: 328; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-825 Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-826 What will be the average age of new motherhood in the U.S. in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7637/new-motherhood-age-in-2050-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-827 How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/ numforecasts: 798; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-828 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-829 When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-830 How many communist states will there be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-831 When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/ numforecasts: 446; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-832 Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-833 Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-834 Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-835 What will the global fertility rate be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-836 When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-837 Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-838 How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-839 Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-840 How large will Monaco be in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-841 How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7045/-pigs-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-842 When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-843 Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack by 2033? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7591/ghouta-chemical-attack/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-844 What will South Africa's GDP per capita PPP be in 2030 (in constant 2017 USD)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7531/south-africa-gdp-per-capita-in-2030/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-845 How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-846 In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-847 When will 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales exceed 50 million units per year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7548/when-will-vrar-sell-50-million-per-year/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-848 Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/ numforecasts: 1081; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-849 Will the next US recession turn into a depression? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/ numforecasts: 381; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-850 How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-851 Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7539/date-our-future-simulates-us-first-guesses/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-852 Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7056/will-mcdonalds-offer-cultivated-meat-first/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-853 What will be the number of K-12 outbreaks in Virginia for the week of 9/5-9/11? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7826/k-12-outbreaks-in-virginia-for-sep-5-11/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-854 What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7365/us-building-permits/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-855 Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/ numforecasts: 213; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-856 Will AI progress surprise us? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/ numforecasts: 615; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-857 When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7031/first-commercial-polygenic-embryo-screening/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-858 When will China officially cease to be a socialist state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-859 What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7379/lowest-e-mini-sp-closing-value-in-september/ numforecasts: 130; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-860 Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ numforecasts: 1253; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-861 Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-862 Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7597/milton-convicted-on-federal-fraud-charges/ numforecasts: 16; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-863 What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-864 Which fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7532/fraction-germany-migration-background/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-865 Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-866 Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-867 Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-868 Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-869 What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/ numforecasts: 379; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-870 What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-871 How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7396/ea-forum-value-drift-2026/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-872 How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7195/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2030/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-873 Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/ numforecasts: 206; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-874 How much global warming by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/ numforecasts: 563; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-875 Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-876 What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-877 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7422/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-878 Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-879 Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/ numforecasts: 461; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-880 Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-881 What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7363/us-durable-goods-orders-august-2021/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-882 Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/ numforecasts: 468; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-883 What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-884 Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7575/2024-taiwanese-presidential-election/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-885 When will be the next S&P 500 correction? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-886 If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-887 Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 219; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-888 How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7066/-countries-to-sell-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-889 What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-890 Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-891 When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-892 If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-893 What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-894 Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/ numforecasts: 165; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-895 Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-896 When will there be a human fatality during travel to or from a heavenly body? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7670/first-death-in-extraplanetary-space-travel/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-897 Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/ numforecasts: 296; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-898 What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-899 When will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7251/1000-transactions-per-second-in-ethereum/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-900 What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable deaths before 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7626/va-covid-deaths-peak-before-1-oct/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-901 What proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7055/prop-of-qsr-with-cultivated-meat-in-2026/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-902 In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7124/monthly-peak-in-new-covid-cases-in-virginia/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-903 When will President Teodoro Obiang leave office in Equatorial Guinea? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7581/equatorial-guineas-obiang-exit-date/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-904 BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-905 The end of the EU as we know it by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/ numforecasts: 996; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-906 When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-907 When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-908 Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/ numforecasts: 181; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-909 Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-910 How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win at the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7652/lib-dem-seats-at-next-uk-election/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-911 When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7025/when-will-insects-replace-fishmeal/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-912 How much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7343/accuracy-of-epas-methane-emissions/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-913 Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-914 Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 202; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-915 Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/ numforecasts: 281; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-916 Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-917 Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-918 Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-919 What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7506/return-for-vgt-if-agi-arrives-by-2040/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-920 Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-921 What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-922 When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-923 How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7834/us-happiness-ranking-from-2020-2022/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-924 Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-925 Who will first land a person on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/ numforecasts: 278; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-926 When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7615/vaccination-rate-ratio-black-virginians/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-927 When will the world create the first Trillionaire? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-928 When will another SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Delta as the dominant variant in Virginia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7602/date-new-variant-overtakes-delta-in-virginia/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-929 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7419/open-phil-ai-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-930 What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-931 Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-932 When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-933 Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-934 What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-935 When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7501/date-twin-prime-conjecture-is-resolved/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-936 What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/ numforecasts: 130; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-937 Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-938 When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-939 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-940 When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-941 In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-942 Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-943 Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/ numforecasts: 406; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-944 Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-945 Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-946 Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-947 What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-948 What day will Solar Cycle 25 end? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-949 In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-950 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7426/open-phil-bio-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-951 Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-952 How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-953 If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/ numforecasts: 209; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-954 Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/ numforecasts: 304; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-955 What will be the largest grouping of stars in the Milky Way, in the year 1 billion, that don't seem to be militarily hostile to each other? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7574/biggest-peaceful-star-group-in-year-1-billion/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-956 When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7324/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-957 How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-958 Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7291/elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud/ numforecasts: 209; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-959 When will GTA VI be released in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-960 Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-961 When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6812/first-autonomous-motorcycle-to-be-sold-in-usa/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-962 Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-963 If the EU bans all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7496/when-will-the-eu-phase-out-cages/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-964 When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/ numforecasts: 553; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-965 What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-966 Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/ numforecasts: 439; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-967 How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7199/cost-to-store-1-tb-on-google-archive-2025/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-968 What will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-969 What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-970 How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-971 When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-972 In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-973 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-974 When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/ numforecasts: 301; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-975 Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-976 Will the first AGI be based on deep learning? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-977 Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-978 What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-979 On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7163/variant-of-high-consequence-before-2025/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-980 Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-981 When will India send their first own astronauts to space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/ numforecasts: 293; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-982 How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/ numforecasts: 220; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-983 Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/ numforecasts: 460; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-984 When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/ numforecasts: 345; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-985 Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-986 Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-987 When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-988 What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-989 What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/ numforecasts: 355; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-990 When will COVID-19 be eradicated? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7601/covid-19-eradication/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-991 After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-992 What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-993 When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-994 How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-995 What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-996 What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/ numforecasts: 381; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-997 Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-998 If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-999 Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1000 Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7569/peak-deaths-from--wave-worse-in-uk-or-us/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1001 When will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7336/good-ventures-donations-5-of-assets/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1002 Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1003 If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ numforecasts: 178; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1004 What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1005 When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1006 Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/ numforecasts: 302; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1007 Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1008 When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/ numforecasts: 211; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1009 Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1010 Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 331; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1011 What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1012 How many new COVID-19 outbreaks will occur in Virginian long-term care facilities before 1 August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7620/new-covid-outbreaks-in-va-ltcfs/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1013 When will the first human be born on another world? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1014 Will Trump flee the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/ numforecasts: 183; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1015 What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1016 Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/ numforecasts: 510; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1017 When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/ numforecasts: 186; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1018 Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1019 Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1020 Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1021 How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/ numforecasts: 145; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1022 Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/ numforecasts: 202; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1023 Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6602/two-more-tbc-transit-systems--2030/ numforecasts: 24; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1024 Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1025 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1026 In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1027 Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1028 Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1029 What percentage of Virginia’s 12-15 age group will be fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 by 1 October 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7619/va-12-15-yo-fully-vaccinated-on-1-oct/ numforecasts: 290; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1030 Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1031 Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1032 How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1033 How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1034 What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7655/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us-full-range/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1035 When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1036 How many annual deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections will have been estimated by the CDC to occurred in 2021 in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7046/-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1037 Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/ numforecasts: 243; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1038 What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/ numforecasts: 224; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1039 Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1040 Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1041 By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1042 Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1043 Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1044 When will a Neanderthal be born again? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7479/bringing-back-the-neanderthal/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1045 Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1046 Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1047 How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1048 If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1049 When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7234/hsv-1-vaccine-approved-by-fda/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1050 Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/ numforecasts: 219; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1051 When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1052 Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1053 When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1054 If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/ numforecasts: 230; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1055 Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/ numforecasts: 1139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1056 Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1057 What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1058 Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1059 When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1060 What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7296/chinese-yuan--of-cofer-q42031/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1061 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1062 Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1063 Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/ numforecasts: 332; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1064 When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1065 How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1066 What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1067 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 196; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1068 Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1069 What will the fed funds rate be by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7439/u-s-interest-rate-policy/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1070 Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1071 How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/ numforecasts: 346; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1072 What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1073 When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1074 When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1075 Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1076 What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1077 Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1078 Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/ numforecasts: 368; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1079 Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1080 Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1081 As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1082 LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1083 Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1084 If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1085 How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1086 Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1087 How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1088 How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1089 How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7018/agi-before-or-after-gwp-growth-rate-of-25/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1090 What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1091 If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1092 When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1093 When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1094 Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1095 When will the first human mission to Venus take place? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1096 What will be the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1000002200, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7662/largest-gwp-in-the-next-billion-years/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1097 Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/ numforecasts: 203; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1098 Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/ numforecasts: 245; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1099 Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1100 Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1101 Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/ numforecasts: 215; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1102 Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1103 When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7032/awards-for-contributions-related-to-covid19/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1104 What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1105 What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1106 Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1107 What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7638/-reduction-in-deltas-secondary-transmission/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1108 What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1109 When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1110 Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1111 Will online poker die by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1112 When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1113 In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7126/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-covid-deaths/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1114 Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1115 A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/ numforecasts: 341; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1116 How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/ numforecasts: 298; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1117 When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1118 What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1119 When will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6662/date-earth-functional-satellites-exceed-5000/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1120 Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1121 Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1122 Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1123 Will a new land speed record be set by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1124 A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/ numforecasts: 306; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1125 Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/ numforecasts: 186; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1126 Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1127 Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/ numforecasts: 213; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1128 When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1129 Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1130 Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/ numforecasts: 225; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1131 When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1132 On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/ numforecasts: 398; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1133 How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1134 When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7226/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1135 Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1136 Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1137 What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7374/us-gdp-growth-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1138 Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7644/asat-weapons-tests-and-space-debris-by-2023/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1139 When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1140 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7425/open-phil-global-health-grants-2025/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1141 Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1142 How high will the U.S.' total dependency ratio be in 2039? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7432/united-states-future-age-structure/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1143 If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1144 When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1145 What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1146 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/ numforecasts: 195; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1147 Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1148 Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 before 2121? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-to-fall-to-near-zero-by-2121/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1149 When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1150 How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1151 Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1152 Tesla's 2025 vehicle production? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1153 Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by "the left" or by "the right"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1154 Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/ numforecasts: 323; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1155 Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/ numforecasts: 442; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1156 Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1157 Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1158 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 254; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1159 Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1160 Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/ numforecasts: 298; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1161 What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7070/age-adjusted-mortality-rate-in-uk-in-2051/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1162 What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1163 Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/ numforecasts: 266; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1164 Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1165 What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/ numforecasts: 221; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1166 By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/ numforecasts: 281; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1167 How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1168 When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1169 How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1170 When will Nate Silver release his 2nd book? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7012/release-date-of-nate-silvers-2nd-book/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1171 Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1172 How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1173 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1174 When will Blue Origin's "New Glenn" rocket complete its first successful test flight? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1175 What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1176 How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7107/cost-to-deliver-1kg-to-mars-in-2075/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1177 How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1178 When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1179 Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7565/recurring-lockdowns-during-2030-2050/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1180 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7427/open-phil-bio-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1181 When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1182 When will commercial supersonic flight return? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/ numforecasts: 348; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1183 Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1184 Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1185 Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/ numforecasts: 177; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1186 What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1187 What will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7093/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2050/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1188 What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1189 Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/ numforecasts: 247; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1190 What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1191 Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/ numforecasts: 403; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1192 Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1193 How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/ numforecasts: 145; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1194 What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7456/countervalue-detonations-by-russia-by-2050/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1195 Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1196 Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1197 How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1198 How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1199 Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1200 Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1201 Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1202 When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1203 Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1204 Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1205 Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/ numforecasts: 349; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1206 Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1207 Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1208 Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1209 What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1210 What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1211 When will be the next "Great Power" war? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1212 At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1213 Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/ numforecasts: 347; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1214 Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1215 Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1216 When will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7141/first-company-on-the-long-term-stock-exchange/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1217 Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1218 Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/ numforecasts: 863; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1219 Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/ numforecasts: 433; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1220 When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1221 Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/ numforecasts: 195; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1222 Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1223 Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1224 On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/ numforecasts: 251; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1225 What will SpaceX be worth by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/ numforecasts: 452; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1226 How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1227 How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/ numforecasts: 265; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1228 On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1229 Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1230 What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1231 When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1232 Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1233 When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/ numforecasts: 142; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1234 What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1235 When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1236 Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1237 How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1238 How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1239 Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/ numforecasts: 403; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1240 Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/ numforecasts: 243; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1241 Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/ numforecasts: 291; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1242 When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1243 When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1244 Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1245 When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1246 Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/ numforecasts: 247; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1247 What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1248 When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1249 What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1250 How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1251 Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1252 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1253 When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1254 Will we reach the island of stability by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1255 What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1256 With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/ numforecasts: 272; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1257 When will the last US casino close? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6893/date-when-the-last-us-casino-will-close/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1258 How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1259 Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ numforecasts: 311; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1260 Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's "Dark Was the Night" on Voyager I's Golden Record? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1261 Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/ numforecasts: 229; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1262 What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/ numforecasts: 156; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1263 Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1264 Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1265 Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1266 Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/ numforecasts: 179; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1267 If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/ numforecasts: 246; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1268 Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/ numforecasts: 290; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1269 What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1270 Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/ numforecasts: 278; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1271 If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1272 When will the next interstellar object be discovered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1273 Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1274 When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1275 Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/ numforecasts: 263; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1276 When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1277 What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1278 Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1279 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 137; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1280 Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/ numforecasts: 275; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1281 Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/ numforecasts: 776; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1282 Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/ numforecasts: 144; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1283 When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/ numforecasts: 489; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1284 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1285 When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/ numforecasts: 317; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1286 How many people will take the EA survey in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1287 When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1288 Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1289 What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1290 Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1291 When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/ numforecasts: 407; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1292 Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1293 Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1294 What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7389/biden--trump-us-google-search-ratio-q3-2022/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1295 What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1296 When will an AI pass the laugh test? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1297 When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/ numforecasts: 220; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1298 When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ numforecasts: 225; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1299 When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1300 Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1301 When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/ numforecasts: 412; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1302 Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/ numforecasts: 352; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1303 In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/ numforecasts: 149; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1304 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1305 What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1306 Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/ numforecasts: 229; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1307 If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1308 Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1309 What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 173; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1310 What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7161/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1311 Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/ numforecasts: 301; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1312 Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/ numforecasts: 196; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1313 What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7062/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-meats-in-2022/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1314 What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1315 When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/ numforecasts: 233; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1316 Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/ numforecasts: 626; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1317 If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1318 Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1319 The End of NAFTA? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/ numforecasts: 259; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1320 When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1321 Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1322 What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1323 What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/ numforecasts: 245; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1324 Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1325 Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1326 Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6" (or higher) before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6973/nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1327 When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1328 Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1329 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1330 Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1331 Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/ numforecasts: 379; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1332 If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1333 By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1334 How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1335 How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1336 What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1337 Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1338 Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/ numforecasts: 574; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1339 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6975/2025-donations-to-cause-prioritization/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1340 What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7036/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2023/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1341 What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1342 Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/ numforecasts: 495; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1343 When will the 10,000th human reach space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1344 When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1345 Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1346 Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1347 Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1348 Are we in a simulated reality? Part II https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/ numforecasts: 451; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1349 When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1350 Will humans go extinct by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ numforecasts: 793; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1351 What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1352 Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/ numforecasts: 418; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1353 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1354 Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1355 Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/ numforecasts: 865; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1356 What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7307/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1357 Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1358 When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1359 How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7044/-cattle-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1360 Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1361 Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1362 When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1363 In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7125/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-hospitalizations/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1364 Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1365 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1366 When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1367 Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1368 If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7402/war-between-russia-and-the-us-by-2050/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1369 How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1370 Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1371 How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1372 Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1373 Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1374 Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/ numforecasts: 212; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1375 What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1376 When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/ numforecasts: 246; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1377 Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1378 What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/ numforecasts: 217; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1379 When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/ numforecasts: 1028; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1380 How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/ numforecasts: 223; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1381 Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1382 When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1383 How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1384 Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1385 By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/ numforecasts: 291; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1386 At what point will at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" be released to the public? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1387 What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1388 How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1389 Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1390 Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/ numforecasts: 166; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1391 Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1392 When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/ numforecasts: 141; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1393 Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/ numforecasts: 239; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1394 How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7213/highest-paid-dead-celebrity-in-2021/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1395 2˚C global warming by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/ numforecasts: 400; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1396 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/ numforecasts: 305; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1397 What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1398 What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1399 Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1400 Tunnel vs. Wall https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/ numforecasts: 567; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1401 What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1402 What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1403 What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/ numforecasts: 368; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1404 What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1405 What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4790/elon-musks-net-worth-at-the-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1406 When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1407 Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1408 When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1409 If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1410 Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/ numforecasts: 242; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1411 When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1412 Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1413 What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1414 Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/ numforecasts: 571; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1415 Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1416 What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1417 Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/ numforecasts: 190; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1418 Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1419 What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1420 Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/artificial-drives-real-roads-vs-real-drivers-artificial-roads/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1421 Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/ numforecasts: 351; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1422 How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1423 What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/ numforecasts: 1782; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1424 When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1425 Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1426 Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 149; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1427 Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1428 What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1429 Will the US supreme court change size by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/ numforecasts: 248; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1430 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1431 Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1432 If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/ numforecasts: 659; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1433 What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1434 Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/ numforecasts: 367; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1435 Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1436 How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1437 Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/ numforecasts: 11; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1438 Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/ numforecasts: 571; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1439 What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1440 When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1441 When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1442 When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1443 What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1444 Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1445 What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7373/us-building-permits-september-2021/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1446 Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1447 Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/ numforecasts: 323; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1448 When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1449 Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/ numforecasts: 202; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1450 How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1451 What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1452 What will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7344/resolution-of-commercial-satellites-in-2050/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1453 How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1454 By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1455 Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/ numforecasts: 240; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1456 Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/ numforecasts: 250; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1457 What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1458 What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1459 How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1460 If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1461 Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/ numforecasts: 378; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1462 Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/ numforecasts: 273; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1463 By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1464 Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1465 Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/ numforecasts: 240; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1466 By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1467 When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7033/hashing-with-biocomputers/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1468 When will the next Qatari general election be held? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1469 On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1470 How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1471 How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1472 What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7059/2022-retail-market-share-of-plant-based-milk/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1473 When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1474 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1475 What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7328/global-democracy-share-2040/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1476 What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1477 When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1478 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6976/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-meta-charities/ numforecasts: 14; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1479 When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/ numforecasts: 316; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1480 When will The Simpsons air its final episode? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/ numforecasts: 165; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1481 Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1482 Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1483 Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1484 When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1485 Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/ numforecasts: 260; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1486 Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1487 What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/ numforecasts: 237; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1488 The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1489 When will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7137/va-workplace-activity-reach-baseline-lvl/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1490 Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1491 Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1492 Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1493 Will China land the next person on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1494 Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/ numforecasts: 81; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1495 When will Sabaton release their tenth album? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7204/tenth-sabaton-album/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1496 When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/ numforecasts: 235; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1497 While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1498 Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1499 If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/ numforecasts: 257; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1500 What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1501 What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1502 Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7097/family-planning-charity-in-2021/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1503 Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/ numforecasts: 208; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1504 Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/ numforecasts: 167; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1505 When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1506 Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1507 When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/ numforecasts: 183; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1508 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 181; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1509 On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1510 When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1511 Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/ numforecasts: 276; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1512 Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1513 What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1514 How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1515 Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1516 When will North Korea have a McDonald's? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1517 In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1518 If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1519 Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1520 When will the US-Canada border reopen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7108/us-canada-border-to-reopen/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1521 What will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7081/carbon-capture-and-storage-potential-in-2030/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1522 What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1523 Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1524 How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ numforecasts: 160; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1525 When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7443/when-will-the-us-allow-travel-from-the-uk/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1526 Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1527 When will the Flamanville EPR be finished? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1528 Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1529 Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1530 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6978/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-long-term-future/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1531 How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6891/migrant-deaths-in-the-mediterranean-in-2022/ numforecasts: 19; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1532 Will we find life on Mars by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1533 How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1534 Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1535 When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1536 What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1537 Will the world population increase every year for the next decade? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/ numforecasts: 2107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1538 What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7242/usd--of-cofer-q42021/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1539 Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1540 When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1541 When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ numforecasts: 228; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1542 By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1543 How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1544 What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ numforecasts: 558; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1545 How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1546 Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1547 When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1548 Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1549 How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1550 How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1551 Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 124; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1552 Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/ numforecasts: 239; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1553 Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1554 When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1555 What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1556 When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1557 How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1558 How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/ numforecasts: 449; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1559 How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1560 Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/ numforecasts: 32; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1561 Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/ numforecasts: 198; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1562 Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/ numforecasts: 197; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1563 What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1564 How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1565 What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1566 How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1567 Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1568 What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7400/us-durable-goods-orders-september-2021/ numforecasts: 79; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1569 What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/ numforecasts: 232; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1570 What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1571 Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/ numforecasts: 380; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1572 By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1573 When will the first baby be born away from Earth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1574 When will PHP die? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1575 Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1576 What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1577 By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1578 Balloons to the edge of space – when? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/ numforecasts: 136; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1579 Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1580 What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1581 Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1582 When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1583 Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/ numforecasts: 615; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1584 When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1585 Will chess be "weakly solved" by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/ numforecasts: 343; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1586 Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1587 50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1588 Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1589 How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1590 How will Joe Biden rank among presidents? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1591 What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1592 What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1593 What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1594 What will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7002/lowest-us-msrp-of-2030-tesla/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1595 Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1596 Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1597 What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1598 When will there be at least one billion Americans? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1599 What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1600 When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1601 Will the Universe end? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/ numforecasts: 605; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1602 What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/ numforecasts: 13; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1603 Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1604 Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/ numforecasts: 73; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1605 When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/ numforecasts: 100; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1606 What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/ numforecasts: 92; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1607 In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1608 What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1609 When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/ numforecasts: 110; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1610 When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1611 How much money will GiveWell move in 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/ numforecasts: 23; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1612 Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1613 A major United States earthquake by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/ numforecasts: 804; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1614 Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/ numforecasts: 254; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1615 What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/ numforecasts: 180; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1616 When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/ numforecasts: 89; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1617 What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1618 When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/ numforecasts: 341; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1619 When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1620 If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1621 How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ numforecasts: 170; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1622 Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1623 How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1624 Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1625 Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/ numforecasts: 486; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1626 How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/ numforecasts: 127; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1627 What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1628 What will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7011/eu-gdp-in-2025/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1629 What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1630 What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1631 What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1632 Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1633 Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1634 When will the first exaflop performer appear? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1635 Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1636 Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/ numforecasts: 405; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1637 When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1638 What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/ numforecasts: 562; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1639 Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1640 Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1641 When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1642 When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1643 Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1644 A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/ numforecasts: 178; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1645 When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1646 Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1647 Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1648 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/ numforecasts: 798; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1649 When will the world have reached peak Facebook? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1650 Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1651 When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6448/two-states-ban-human-driven-vehicles/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1652 When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1653 What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1654 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1655 Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/ numforecasts: 246; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1656 Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1657 Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1658 Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1659 Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/ numforecasts: 126; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1660 When will Xi Jinping leave power in China? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/ numforecasts: 157; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1661 Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/ numforecasts: 238; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1662 When will a performer win a 4th Oscar for Acting? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6982/date-next-performer-wins-4th-oscar/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1663 Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1664 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1665 What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1666 Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1667 When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1668 Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1669 What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1670 When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1671 Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/ numforecasts: 407; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1672 How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ numforecasts: 143; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1673 Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1674 When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1675 Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1676 How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1677 What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1678 Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1679 When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1680 For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1681 Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1682 Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1683 Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/ numforecasts: 319; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1684 When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1685 What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1686 When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/ numforecasts: 51; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1687 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 102; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1688 When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/ numforecasts: 653; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1689 Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/ numforecasts: 523; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1690 When will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6888/10-grand-slam-winner/ numforecasts: 18; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1691 When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1692 Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1693 How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1694 When will we have a new Pope? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1695 If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1696 Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/ numforecasts: 710; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1697 When will the next human being walk on the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/ numforecasts: 321; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1698 Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/ numforecasts: 164; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1699 How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1700 Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1701 How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/ numforecasts: 147; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1702 Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/ numforecasts: 185; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1703 When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1704 When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1705 Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1706 Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/ numforecasts: 397; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1707 How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1708 Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/ numforecasts: 276; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1709 When will a fusion reactor reach ignition? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/ numforecasts: 105; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1710 When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1711 Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/ numforecasts: 181; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1712 Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/ numforecasts: 303; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1713 How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/ numforecasts: 135; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1714 What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/ numforecasts: 22; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1715 Who will win the 'worm wars'? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1716 Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/ numforecasts: 261; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1717 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1718 Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1719 Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1720 Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/ numforecasts: 271; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1721 What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1722 When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1723 Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1724 What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1725 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1726 When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/ numforecasts: 138; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1727 What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1728 If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6939/will-gpt-3-scaling-plateau-in--3-ooms/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1729 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/ numforecasts: 39; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1730 What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1731 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/ numforecasts: 103; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1732 When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1733 What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1734 How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/ numforecasts: 373; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1735 Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1736 How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/ numforecasts: 203; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1737 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 125; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1738 Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/ numforecasts: 642; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1739 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/ numforecasts: 319; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1740 How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1741 Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/ numforecasts: 296; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1742 When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1743 When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1744 Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/ numforecasts: 556; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1745 Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/ numforecasts: 159; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1746 Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/ numforecasts: 485; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1747 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1748 Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/ numforecasts: 223; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1749 Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1750 How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1751 When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1752 Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/ numforecasts: 309; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1753 Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1754 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1755 Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1756 When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1757 Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1758 Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/ numforecasts: 128; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1759 Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/ numforecasts: 418; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1760 What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/ numforecasts: 36; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1761 When will the United States admit a new state? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/ numforecasts: 193; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1762 Assuming that the Green Party joins the federal government following the German federal elections on September 26th, 2021, what will be German per capita CO2 emissions in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6652/co2-emissions-in-germany-in-2025-greens/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1763 When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1764 What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1765 Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1766 When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1767 Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/ numforecasts: 570; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1768 Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1769 Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1770 Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1771 Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1772 Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/ numforecasts: 201; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1773 What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1774 What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7196/total-us-private-equity-deals-2022/ numforecasts: 10; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1775 What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1776 If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/ numforecasts: 161; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1777 When will zettascale computing be achieved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1778 When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1779 Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/ numforecasts: 234; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1780 When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/ numforecasts: 183; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1781 When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1782 When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/ numforecasts: 168; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1783 How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1784 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/gc-to-be-caused-by-nanotech-if-it-occurs/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1785 How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1786 What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1787 What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1788 When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/ numforecasts: 45; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1789 When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/ numforecasts: 200; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1790 When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1791 Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1792 When will Solar Cycle 25 begin? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1793 By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1794 By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1795 Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/ numforecasts: 213; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1796 Increased off-world population in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/ numforecasts: 527; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1797 What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1798 When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/ numforecasts: 86; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1799 When will there be at least 5 billion internet users? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1800 Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1801 What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1802 If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/ numforecasts: 121; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1803 When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1804 Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/ numforecasts: 20; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1805 Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/ numforecasts: 359; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1806 Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/ numforecasts: 153; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1807 What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1808 Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1809 When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/ numforecasts: 115; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1810 What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1811 What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1812 Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1813 Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/ numforecasts: 226; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1814 How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1815 Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/ numforecasts: 60; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1816 What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/ numforecasts: 64; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1817 Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1818 By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1819 What will be the population of Próspera in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/ numforecasts: 175; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1820 The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/ numforecasts: 134; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1821 Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1822 Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1823 When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/ numforecasts: 152; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1824 Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ numforecasts: 116; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1825 When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/ numforecasts: 82; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1826 When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/ numforecasts: 155; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1827 When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/ numforecasts: 348; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1828 Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1829 When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1830 When will the first cloned human be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/ numforecasts: 195; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1831 Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/ numforecasts: 224; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1832 If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1833 Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1834 How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/ numforecasts: 49; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1835 Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1836 Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/ numforecasts: 716; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1837 Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1838 When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1839 Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/ numforecasts: 170; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1840 When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/ numforecasts: 101; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1841 Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/ numforecasts: 186; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1842 Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/ numforecasts: 627; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1843 What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 96; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1844 How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1845 What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1846 Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1847 If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/ numforecasts: 266; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1848 When will the UK hold its next general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1849 When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/ numforecasts: 155; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1850 Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/ numforecasts: 312; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1851 What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1852 Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7096/fortifying-feed-for-hens-charity-in-2021/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1853 Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/ numforecasts: 385; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1854 3.6°C global warming by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1855 Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/ numforecasts: 204; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1856 What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/ numforecasts: 53; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1857 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1858 If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/ numforecasts: 59; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1859 When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/ numforecasts: 65; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1860 When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/ numforecasts: 42; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1861 When will we have micropayments? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1862 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/ numforecasts: 230; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1863 Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1864 What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/ numforecasts: 71; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1865 Will Moore's Law end by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/ numforecasts: 317; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1866 How many emoji related court cases in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1867 Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1868 When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1869 What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/ numforecasts: 148; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1870 When will programs write programs for us? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/ numforecasts: 265; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1871 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/ numforecasts: 140; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1872 When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/ numforecasts: 188; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1873 Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/ numforecasts: 171; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1874 How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/ numforecasts: 112; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1875 Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1876 When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/ numforecasts: 169; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1877 If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ numforecasts: 69; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1878 Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7017/us-troops-in-afghanistan-a-last-detail/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1879 What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1880 How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1881 What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/ numforecasts: 62; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1882 Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1883 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6977/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-animal-welfare/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1884 What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/ numforecasts: 199; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1885 What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1886 Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/ numforecasts: 1635; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1887 Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1888 What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1889 What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/974/what-will-be-the-value-of-the-herein-described-ai-winter-index-at-end-of-2021/ numforecasts: 295; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1890 What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1891 What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/ numforecasts: 170; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1892 Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1893 By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/ numforecasts: 114; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1894 When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male "pill") on the US market? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/ numforecasts: 78; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1895 How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1896 What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1897 Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1898 What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7035/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2030/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1899 How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1900 Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/ numforecasts: 235; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1901 Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1902 Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/ numforecasts: 111; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1903 When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1904 What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/ numforecasts: 17; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1905 When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/ numforecasts: 47; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1906 When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1907 What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1908 In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/ numforecasts: 361; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1909 Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1910 Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/ numforecasts: 217; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1911 Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/ numforecasts: 385; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1912 When will there be a mile-high building? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/ numforecasts: 210; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1913 How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1914 Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/ numforecasts: 37; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1915 What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/ numforecasts: 236; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1916 If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/ numforecasts: 74; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1917 Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/ numforecasts: 34; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1918 When will one TeraFlOPS cost <$1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/ numforecasts: 150; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1919 When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/ numforecasts: 35; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1920 Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/ numforecasts: 43; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1921 Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1922 How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/ numforecasts: 54; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1923 13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/ numforecasts: 27; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1924 Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1925 What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ numforecasts: 189; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1926 Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101/forethought-foundation-to-flounder-by-25/ numforecasts: 21; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1927 How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1928 When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1929 What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1930 When will a universal flu vaccine be available? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/ numforecasts: 87; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1931 Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/ numforecasts: 91; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1932 How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/ numforecasts: 93; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1933 Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1934 How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1935 What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1936 Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/ numforecasts: 541; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1937 What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1938 How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/ numforecasts: 70; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1939 Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1940 Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/ numforecasts: 146; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1941 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/ numforecasts: 257; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1942 When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1943 When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/ numforecasts: 301; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1944 When will any country stop using cash currency? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/ numforecasts: 151; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1945 What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1946 What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1947 How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1948 When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/ numforecasts: 172; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1949 Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1950 A decrease in US meat production by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/ numforecasts: 207; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1951 What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1952 When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1953 When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/ numforecasts: 180; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1954 How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/ numforecasts: 132; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1955 What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/ numforecasts: 40; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1956 In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/ numforecasts: 113; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1957 When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1958 Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7128/vocs-to-make-up-50-of-virginia-sequences/ numforecasts: 227; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1959 When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/ numforecasts: 77; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1960 Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1961 When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/ numforecasts: 28; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1962 When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1963 When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/ numforecasts: 253; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1964 Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/ numforecasts: 50; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1965 Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/ numforecasts: 162; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1966 Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/ numforecasts: 73; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1967 If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/ numforecasts: 76; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1968 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1969 Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/ numforecasts: 56; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1970 Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/ numforecasts: 55; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1971 Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/ numforecasts: 201; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1972 When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/ numforecasts: 455; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1973 Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/ numforecasts: 260; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1974 Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/ numforecasts: 368; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1975 Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/ numforecasts: 41; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1976 When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7299/roman-space-telescope-launch-date/ numforecasts: 29; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1977 Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1978 How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7465/trade-signal-tournament-prize-pool-2021-09-30/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1979 When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/ numforecasts: 176; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1980 What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1981 How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7198/sens-research-foundation-revenue-2021/ numforecasts: 99; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1982 When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/ numforecasts: 154; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1983 Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/ numforecasts: 44; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1984 Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/ numforecasts: 158; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1985 Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/ numforecasts: 33; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1986 Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1987 When will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7391/next-texas-electricity-grid-outage/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1988 Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/ numforecasts: 118; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1989 When will Croatia adopt the euro? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/ numforecasts: 84; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1990 Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ numforecasts: 256; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1991 What will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7006/gdp-of-the-usa-for-2025/ numforecasts: 38; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1992 Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ numforecasts: 106; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1993 When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/ numforecasts: 163; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1994 Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/ numforecasts: 308; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1995 One Million Martian Residents by 2075? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/ numforecasts: 456; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1996 When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ numforecasts: 137; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1997 Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/ numforecasts: 15; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1998 When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/ numforecasts: 83; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-1999 Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2000 How many people will take the EA survey in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2001 What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/ numforecasts: 26; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2002 In 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6890/all-time-tennis-slam-record-in-2050/ numforecasts: 31; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2003 What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/ numforecasts: 30; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2004 Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/ numforecasts: 276; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2005 Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/ numforecasts: 241; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2006 Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/ numforecasts: 1193; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2007 In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2008 When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7104/birthdate-of-the-first-human-to-live-to-1000/ numforecasts: 94; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2009 When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/ numforecasts: 80; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2010 How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/ numforecasts: 75; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2011 Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/ numforecasts: 90; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2012 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/ numforecasts: 122; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2013 How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 182; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2014 In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2015 How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/ numforecasts: 131; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2016 When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/ numforecasts: 46; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2017 When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/ numforecasts: 85; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2018 Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2019 Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/ numforecasts: 502; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2020 What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/ numforecasts: 48; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2021 What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2022 What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/ numforecasts: 68; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2023 Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/ numforecasts: 104; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2024 Will the Open Courts Act become law? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/ numforecasts: 88; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2025 When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/ numforecasts: 57; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2026 What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/ numforecasts: 72; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2027 What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/ numforecasts: 98; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2028 Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/ numforecasts: 224; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2029 Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/ numforecasts: 133; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2030 Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/ numforecasts: 58; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2031 When will a technology replace screens? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/ numforecasts: 123; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2032 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/ numforecasts: 108; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2033 Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/ numforecasts: 66; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2034 How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/ numforecasts: 95; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2035 How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/ numforecasts: 114; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2036 Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/ numforecasts: 165; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2037 How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/ numforecasts: 109; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2038 Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/ numforecasts: 52; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2039 When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/ numforecasts: 119; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2040 What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/ numforecasts: 117; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2041 What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/ numforecasts: 174; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2042 Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/ numforecasts: 262; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2043 What will inflation be in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ numforecasts: 473; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2044 What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/ numforecasts: 61; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2045 Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/ numforecasts: 395; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2046 Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/ numforecasts: 279; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2047 When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/ numforecasts: 129; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2048 What percentage of predictions about "robotic judges" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2049 If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated,
-how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/ numforecasts: 107; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2050 What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/ numforecasts: 97; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2051 If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/ numforecasts: 67; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2052 What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/ numforecasts: 194; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2053 If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/ numforecasts: 63; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2054 Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/ numforecasts: 139; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2055 Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7641/uk-inflation-prediction-in-2021/ numforecasts: 25; resolution_data: [object Object]; stars: 3
-2056 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 681331
-2057 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 547055
-2058 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 625300
-2059 Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 1429542
-2060 Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 325669
-2061 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 181104
-2062 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 stars: 3; shares_volume: 97944
-2063 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 2021719
-2064 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 431094
-2065 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 982314
-2066 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 24930944
-2067 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 stars: 3; shares_volume: 75237
-2068 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 stars: 3; shares_volume: 112146
-2069 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 64907
-2070 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 77712
-2071 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 51914
-2072 Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 84453
-2073 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 254373
-2074 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 184443
-2075 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 191712
-2076 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 1245473
-2077 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 18581264
-2078 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 2975292
-2079 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 1051343
-2080 Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed stars: 3; shares_volume: 1020585
-2081 Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 102888
-2082 Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 725336
-2083 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 71965
-2084 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 821057
-2085 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 486042
-2086 Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL stars: 3; shares_volume: 175453
-2087 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia stars: 3; shares_volume: 71642
-2088 Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 102522
-2089 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona stars: 3; shares_volume: 69469
-2090 Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 441935
-2091 Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 143385
-2092 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 70206
-2093 How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against stars: 3; shares_volume: 2011827
-2094 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust stars: 3; shares_volume: 535375
-2095 Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 829445
-2096 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 156197
-2097 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 376083
-2098 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 55351
-2099 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire stars: 3; shares_volume: 68616
-2100 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada stars: 3; shares_volume: 75228
-2101 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin stars: 3; shares_volume: 59730
-2102 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director stars: 3; shares_volume: 8596215
-2103 Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term stars: 3; shares_volume: 1129435
-2104 Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district stars: 3; shares_volume: 40220
-2105 Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 4486095
-2106 Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 345333
-2107 Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 323695
-2108 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China stars: 3; shares_volume: 447531
-2109 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 664932
-2110 Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee stars: 3; shares_volume: 83423
-2111 Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 259641
-2112 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 142676
-2113 Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 429065
-2114 How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 1251584
-2115 Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district stars: 3; shares_volume: 22446
-2116 What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 371224
-2117 Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 2102746
-2118 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 22124
-2119 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 47284
-2120 Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 60663
-2121 Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 46422
-2122 Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 70234
-2123 Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 54161
-2124 Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 135246
-2125 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 211783
-2126 Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 82282
-2127 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri stars: 3; shares_volume: 37771
-2128 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 20861
-2129 Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 31667
-2130 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa stars: 3; shares_volume: 32338
-2131 Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023 stars: 3; shares_volume: 13932
-2132 Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023 stars: 3; shares_volume: 2570
-2133 Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 388449
-2134 Who will be the governor of California on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7214/Who-will-be-the-governor-of-California-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 6007946
-2135 Will Automatic Voter Registration become law in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7217/Will-Automatic-Voter-Registration-become-law-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 169531
-2136 Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7229/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 87756
-2137 How many refugees will Biden authorize to be admitted in the next fiscal year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7233/How-many-refugees-will-Biden-authorize-to-be-admitted-in-the-next-fiscal-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 248844
-2138 Who will be prime minister of Israel on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7234/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 356690
-2139 What will be the corporate tax rate for 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7237/What-will-be-the-corporate-tax-rate-for-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 228318
-2140 Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 429262
-2141 Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7241/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 147765
-2142 Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7253/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 32911
-2143 How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 51815
-2144 Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 82161
-2145 Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 7738
-2146 Who will finish first in the 2021 mayoral primary in Cleveland? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7261/Who-will-finish-first-in-the-2021-mayoral-primary-in-Cleveland stars: 3; shares_volume: 167250
-2147 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 116478
-2148 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 50606
-2149 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 8365
-2150 Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 76378
-2151 Who will be elected Atlanta mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7275/Who-will-be-elected-Atlanta-mayor-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 65845
-2152 Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7286/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 233497
-2153 Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 13289
-2154 Will Kevin McCarthy testify publicly before the Jan. 6 Committee in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7295/Will-Kevin-McCarthy-testify-publicly-before-the-Jan-6-Committee-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 14561
-2155 Who will win the 2022 New York Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7307/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 25548
-2156 Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 33292
-2157 How many successful filibusters will there be in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7324/How-many-successful-filibusters-will-there-be-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 49349
-2158 Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress stars: 3; shares_volume: 601321
-2159 Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 110193
-2160 Who will win the 2022 Idaho Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7329/Who-will-win-the-2022-Idaho-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 6107
-2161 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7343/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 6194
-2162 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 10855
-2163 How many VA House seats will Democrats win in the 2021 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7349/How-many-VA-House-seats-will-Democrats-win-in-the-2021-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 30218
-2164 Who will be elected president of Chile in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7350/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Chile-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 169573
-2165 Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 34425
-2166 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 72690
-2167 Enough signatures for a vote on recall of LA County DA George Gascón? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7361/Enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-LA-County-DA-George-Gascón stars: 3; shares_volume: 13319
-2168 Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20 stars: 3; shares_volume: 56690
-2169 Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 5483
-2170 Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 3610
-2171 Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 4642
-2172 Will Tracy Stone-Manning be confirmed as BLM Director by Oct. 8? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7379/Will-Tracy-Stone-Manning-be-confirmed-as-BLM-Director-by-Oct-8 stars: 3; shares_volume: 64457
-2173 Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7380/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 7568
-2174 Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 8970
-2175 Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7384/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Kansas-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 3030
-2176 Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 13457
-2177 Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7387/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 8650
-2178 Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 7502
-2179 Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022 stars: 3; shares_volume: 16679
-2180 Which party will win the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7394/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maine-gubernatorial-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 4388
-2181 Who will be elected Buffalo, NY mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7395/Who-will-be-elected-Buffalo,-NY-mayor-in-2021 stars: 3; shares_volume: 199018
-2182 Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve stars: 3; shares_volume: 182188
-2183 How many votes to confirm Veronica Rossman to the Tenth Cir. by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7403/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Veronica-Rossman-to-the-Tenth-Cir-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 114559
-2184 How many votes to confirm Tana Lin to the Western Dist. of WA by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7404/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Tana-Lin-to-the-Western-Dist-of-WA-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 37190
-2185 Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7411/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wyoming-At-Large-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 24874
-2186 Who will be the next elected speaker of the New York City council? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7414/Who-will-be-the-next-elected-speaker-of-the-New-York-City-council stars: 3; shares_volume: 9365
-2187 Will Kamala Harris be the 47th US president? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president stars: 3; shares_volume: 78689
-2188 Will Congress raise or suspend the debt limit by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7421/Will-Congress-raise-or-suspend-the-debt-limit-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 157933
-2189 How many votes to confirm Rohit Chopra as CFPB Director by Oct. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7424/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Rohit-Chopra-as-CFPB-Director-by-Oct-15 stars: 3; shares_volume: 35651
-2190 How many votes to confirm David Chipman as ATF director by Oct. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7425/How-many-votes-to-confirm-David-Chipman-as-ATF-director-by-Oct-15 stars: 3; shares_volume: 58832
-2191 How many seats will the Conservatives win in Norway's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7426/How-many-seats-will-the-Conservatives-win-in-Norway's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 44038
-2192 Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7431/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 37718
-2193 How many votes to confirm Margaret Strickland to the Dist. Ct. of NM by 10/22? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7432/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Margaret-Strickland-to-the-Dist-Ct-of-NM-by-10-22 stars: 3; shares_volume: 24810
-2194 How many federal judges will be confirmed by Oct. 8? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7434/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Oct-8 stars: 3; shares_volume: 134602
-2195 Will San Diego County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7439/Will-San-Diego-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 337556
-2196 Who will win the 2022 Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7440/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination stars: 3; shares_volume: 1676
-2197 Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7441/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 50645
-2198 How many seats will the Liberals win in Canada's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7443/How-many-seats-will-the-Liberals-win-in-Canada's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 218182
-2199 Who will be the prime minister of Canada on Oct. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7444/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Canada-on-Oct-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 227261
-2200 Will Fresno County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7446/Will-Fresno-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 434753
-2201 How many seats will the CDU/CSU win in Germany's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7450/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-CSU-win-in-Germany's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 14760
-2202 How many seats will the Green Party win in Germany's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7451/How-many-seats-will-the-Green-Party-win-in-Germany's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 13946
-2203 Will Sacramento County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7452/Will-Sacramento-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 128948
-2204 Will San Bernardino County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7454/Will-San-Bernardino-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 230311
-2205 Who will win the 2024 US presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 88289
-2206 Will Orange County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7458/Will-Orange-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 397148
-2207 How many Yea votes in the House for a bipartisan infrastructure bill by Oct. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7459/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-a-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-by-Oct-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 65637
-2208 Which of these 10 Asia-Pacific leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7463/Which-of-these-10-Asia-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next stars: 3; shares_volume: 51602
-2209 Which parties will be in the next German coalition? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7464/Which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-German-coalition stars: 3; shares_volume: 32537
-2210 Who will win the Democratic nomination for the FL-20 special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7465/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-for-the-FL-20-special-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 7986
-2211 Will Jake Sullivan be National Security Advisor at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7466/Will-Jake-Sullivan-be-National-Security-Advisor-at-the-end-of-the-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 18538
-2212 What will be the margin in the California gubernatorial recall election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7469/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-California-gubernatorial-recall-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 2776130
-2213 Who will be prime minister of the Czech Republic on July 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7471/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-the-Czech-Republic-on-July-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 418
-2214 Who will be the prime minister of Japan on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7472/Who-will-be-the-prime-minister-of-Japan-on-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 17440
-2215 How many Yea votes in the House by Oct. 15 to pass reconciliation? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7473/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-by-Oct-15-to-pass-reconciliation stars: 3; shares_volume: 8419
-2216 Will Rahm Emanuel be confirmed as ambassador to Japan by Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7474/Will-Rahm-Emanuel-be-confirmed-as-ambassador-to-Japan-by-Dec-31 stars: 3; shares_volume: 7800
-2217 Will Antony Blinken be Secretary of State at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7475/Will-Antony-Blinken-be-Secretary-of-State-at-the-end-of-the-year stars: 3; shares_volume: 85559
-2218 Will Biden's 538 approval rating be lower than disapproval on Oct. 12? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7476/Will-Biden's-538-approval-rating-be-lower-than-disapproval-on-Oct-12 stars: 3; shares_volume: 44744
-2219 How many seats will the Social Democratic Party win in Germany's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7477/How-many-seats-will-the-Social-Democratic-Party-win-in-Germany's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 6193
-2220 How many seats will the Conservatives win in Canada's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7479/How-many-seats-will-the-Conservatives-win-in-Canada's-next-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 31330
-2221 What will be the margin in Boston's preliminary mayoral election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7480/What-will-be-the-margin-in-Boston's-preliminary-mayoral-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 37279
-2222 What will be the margin in Cleveland's mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7483/What-will-be-the-margin-in-Cleveland's-mayoral-primary stars: 3; shares_volume: 10999
-2223 Will Riverside County vote to recall Gavin Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7484/Will-Riverside-County-vote-to-recall-Gavin-Newsom stars: 3; shares_volume: 191578
-2224 How many votes in the California recall election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7486/How-many-votes-in-the-California-recall-election stars: 3; shares_volume: 558050
-2225 Will the Senate pass a bill via reconciliation by Nov. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7487/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-bill-via-reconciliation-by-Nov-1 stars: 3; shares_volume: 3927
-2226 What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Sept. 21? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7488/What-will-Joe-Biden's-538-job-approval-rating-be-for-Sept-21 stars: 3; shares_volume: 348350
-2227 Who will win in the 2021 mayoral election in Cleveland? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7489/Who-will-win-in-the-2021-mayoral-election-in-Cleveland stars: 3; shares_volume: 346
-2228 Will a debt limit raise be enacted by Oct. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7490/Will-a-debt-limit-raise-be-enacted-by-Oct-15 stars: 3; shares_volume: 3934
-2229 What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be for Sept. 22? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7491/What-will-Joe-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-for-Sept-22 stars: 3; shares_volume: 51311
-2230 Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2231 What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2232 Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2233 Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/does-vitamin-d-reduce-the-severity-of-covid-19-outcomes numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2234 What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370? https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2235 What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2236 What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2237 Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2238 Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2239 What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2240 Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2241 Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2242 Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2243 Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2244 Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2245 Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-july-28-2015-serbian-lottery-drawing-rigged-11364 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2246 Why was Seth Rich killed? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2247 Why was Stonehenge built? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2248 Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
-2249 Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014? https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129 numforecasts: 1; stars: 4
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/metaforecasts_history.json b/data/old/metaforecasts_history.json
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--- a/data/old/metaforecasts_history.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,98056 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:19.356Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "84",
- "numforecasters": "73",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:22.002Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "52",
- "numforecasters": "46",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:25.031Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 5.5%",
- "probability": 0.1084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
- "probability": 0.1932,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1954,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 12%",
- "probability": 0.2229,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "81",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:31.242Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "numforecasters": "23",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position. Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:33.658Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "22",
- "numforecasters": "18",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:35.988Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "19",
- "numforecasters": "17",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021. The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:39.586Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.0418,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.3054,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.30820000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2161,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "49",
- "numforecasters": "40",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000, More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000, More than 130,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:42.927Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 70,000",
- "probability": 0.12560000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.33159999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
- "probability": 0.3218,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
- "probability": 0.16519999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 130,000",
- "probability": 0.0558,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "88",
- "numforecasters": "72",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:45.859Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.0755,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.171,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.534,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.2005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.019,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "35",
- "numforecasters": "29",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3%, Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%, More than 7.5%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:49.440Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 3%",
- "probability": 0.22690000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31079999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.2969,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.11380000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.051500000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "20",
- "numforecasters": "18",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:59.224Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.0512,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.13449999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.2414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.312,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.2608,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "83",
- "numforecasters": "71",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:02.004Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "144",
- "numforecasters": "109",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:04.871Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "194",
- "numforecasters": "135",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $40 billion, Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive, More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion, More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion, More than $100 billion",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:07.783Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $40 billion",
- "probability": 0.0528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2522,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
- "probability": 0.4056,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
- "probability": 0.21719999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 billion",
- "probability": 0.0722,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "57",
- "numforecasters": "46",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $13 billion, Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive, More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion, More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion, More than $25 billion",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:11.361Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $13 billion",
- "probability": 0.0332,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1242,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
- "probability": 0.4213,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.3194,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.10189999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "58",
- "numforecasters": "44",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:14.661Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than -0.25",
- "probability": 0.19329999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3189,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
- "probability": 0.29960000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
- "probability": 0.1467,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.5",
- "probability": 0.0414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "150",
- "numforecasters": "111",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:18.309Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.0506,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19329999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
- "probability": 0.35350000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
- "probability": 0.254,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $650 million",
- "probability": 0.14859999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "92",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:21.887Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $30 million",
- "probability": 0.0492,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
- "probability": 0.3403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
- "probability": 0.2051,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $150 million",
- "probability": 0.1018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "144",
- "numforecasters": "114",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:24.649Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0971,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
- "probability": 0.2187,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
- "probability": 0.33390000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.32030000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "72",
- "numforecasters": "44",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:27.621Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 800",
- "probability": 0.1282,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
- "probability": 0.4506,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
- "probability": 0.2904,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
- "probability": 0.1013,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 100,000",
- "probability": 0.0296,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "157",
- "numforecasters": "103",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\" The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.45%, Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive, More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%, More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%, More than 1.2%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:38.064Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 0.45%",
- "probability": 0.0484,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1732,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
- "probability": 0.2768,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
- "probability": 0.2242,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.2%",
- "probability": 0.2774,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "67",
- "numforecasters": "55",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:41.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "153",
- "numforecasters": "90",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 20%, Between 20% and 25%, inclusive, More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%, More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%, More than 35%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:44.617Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.08800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
- "probability": 0.3705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
- "probability": 0.25780000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 35%",
- "probability": 0.1139,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "75",
- "numforecasters": "59",
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:47.308Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "362",
- "numforecasters": "198",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:49.981Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before February 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.0223,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0738,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.21559999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "After November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.6883,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "249",
- "numforecasters": "137",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:53.304Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 59%",
- "probability": 0.12369999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1791,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
- "probability": 0.2658,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
- "probability": 0.2939,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 80%",
- "probability": 0.1376,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "239",
- "numforecasters": "169",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:56.342Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "201",
- "numforecasters": "133",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:59.367Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.5%",
- "probability": 0.0675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.13720000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
- "probability": 0.2139,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.29059999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6%",
- "probability": 0.2908,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "221",
- "numforecasters": "140",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.468Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5648011363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4351988636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 352,
- "numforecasters": 143,
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.468Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8212340425531914,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17876595744680857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 235,
- "numforecasters": 127,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.468Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3674375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6325625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "numforecasters": 104,
- "stars": 1
- }
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.468Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5289130434782608,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47108695652173915,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "numforecasters": 96,
- "stars": 1
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.469Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.757280701754386,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "numforecasters": 92,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasters": 91,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasters": 87,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.4249074074074074,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "numforecasters": 77,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.4931932773109243,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "numforecasters": 77,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.665,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "numforecasters": 77,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.469Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11789999999999999,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8821,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "numforecasters": 75,
- "stars": 1
- }
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- {}
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- },
- {
- "title": "How vivid is your sound imagination?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.469Z",
- "options": [
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- "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
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- "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
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- "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",
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- "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
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- "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
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- {
- "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",
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- {
- "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
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- "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
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- {
- "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "stars": 1
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "history": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 24,
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
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- {
- "title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
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- "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
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- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
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- {
- "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
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- "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
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- "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
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- "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
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- "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
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- "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
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- "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
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- "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
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- "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",
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- "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
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- "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
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- "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
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- "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
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- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
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- "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
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- "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
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- "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",
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- "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
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- "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",
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- "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
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- "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
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- "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
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- "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
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- "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
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- "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",
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- "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
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- "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
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- "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"",
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- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
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- "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
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- "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",
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- "title": "ETI is AGI",
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- "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
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- "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
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- "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
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- "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
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- "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
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- "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
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- "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
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- "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
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- "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
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- "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
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- "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",
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- "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
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- "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
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- "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
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- "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
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- "title": "10 million",
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- "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
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- "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
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- "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
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- "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",
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- "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
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- "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
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- "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
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- "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",
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- "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",
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- "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
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- "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
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- "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
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- "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
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- "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
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- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
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- "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
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- "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
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- "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
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- "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
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- "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
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- "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
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- "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
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- "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
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- "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
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- "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
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- "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
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- "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
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- "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
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- "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
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- "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
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- "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
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- "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
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- "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
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- "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
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- "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
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- "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
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- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
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- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
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- "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
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- {
- "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
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- "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
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- "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
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- {
- "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.472Z",
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- "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
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- "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.472Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.472Z",
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- "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
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- "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.472Z",
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- "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
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- "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
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- "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
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- "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
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- "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
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- "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
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- "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.472Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3346153846153846,
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- "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.472Z",
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- "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
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- "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
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- "title": "Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abt",
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- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "title": "Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)",
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- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "title": "Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)",
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- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "title": "Estimates for Accenture (ACN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/acn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "title": "Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/atvi",
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- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "title": "Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)",
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- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "title": "Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "title": "Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aap",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "history": [
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- {
- "title": "Estimates for AES Corp (AES)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aes",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
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- "history": [
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- {
- "title": "Estimates for Aflac (AFL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/afl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/a",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/akam",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/are",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alxn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/algn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alle",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/all",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/googl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/goog",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amzn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amcr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aee",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aal",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aep",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Express (AXP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/axp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American International Group (AIG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aig",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/awk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ametek (AME)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ame",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amgn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aph",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Analog Devices (ADI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"ANSYS (ANSS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anss",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/antm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Aon plc (AON)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aon",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aos",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aapl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amat",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aptv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anet",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ajg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aiz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/t",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ato",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adsk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/azo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bll",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.478Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bax",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bdx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/brk.b",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bby",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bio",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/biib",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/blk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ba",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkng",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bwa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bxp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bsx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bmy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avgo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/br",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bf.b",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chrw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cog",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdns",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cpb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cof",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cah",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ccl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/carr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctlt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cat",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cboe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cbre",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CDW (CDW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Celanese (CE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ce",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cerner (CERN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cern",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/schw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chtr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cigna (CI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cinf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctas",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csco",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/c",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cfg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctxs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/clx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cme",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cms",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ko",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctsh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cma",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cag",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cop",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ed",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/coo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cprt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/glw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctva",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cost",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dri",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dva",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/de",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dal",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xray",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dvn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxcm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fang",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dlr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dfs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disca",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disck",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dish",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dollar General (DG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dltr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/d",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dpz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dov",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dow",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dte",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/duk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dre",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ebay",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ecl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eix",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ew",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ea",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/enph",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eog",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/efx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqix",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Essex Property Trust (ESS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ess",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/el",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etsy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/evrg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/es",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/re",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xom",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ffiv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Facebook (FB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fast",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fdx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fitb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fisv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flir",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fls",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fmc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/f",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftnt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fbhs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/foxa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fox",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ben",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fcx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gps",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/grmn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/it",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Electric (GE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ge",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Mills (GIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Motors (GM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gild",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gww",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hal",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hbi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hig",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/has",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hca",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peak",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsic",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hes",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hlt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/holx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Home Depot (HD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hon",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hrl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hst",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hwm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpq",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hum",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hban",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hii",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iex",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/idxx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/info",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/itw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ilmn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Incyte (INCY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/incy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ir",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ice",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ibm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for International Paper (IP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ip",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iff",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/isrg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ivz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipgp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iqv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/irm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jkhy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/j",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jbht",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sjm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnj",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jpm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnpr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ksu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/k",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/key",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/keys",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kim",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/klac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/khc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lhx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lrcx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lvs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/leg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ldos",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/len",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lly",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lin",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lkq",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lmt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/l",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/low",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lumn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mro",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mktx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mar",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mlm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mas",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ma",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mkc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mxim",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mcd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mck",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mrk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/met",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mgm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mchp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msft",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/maa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mhk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tap",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdlz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpwr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mnst",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mco",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ms",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mos",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Nasdaq (NDAQ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ndaq",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntap",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nflx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nem",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwsa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nws",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nee",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlsn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Nike (NKE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nke",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ni",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nsc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntrs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/noc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlok",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nclh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nov",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nrg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nue",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvda",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"NVR (NVR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orly",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oxy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/odfl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/omc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Oneok (OKE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oke",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orcl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/otis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pcar",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pkg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ph",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pypl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pbct",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pep",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pki",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/prgo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pxd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pool",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pgr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Prologis (PLD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pld",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pru",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/phm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pvh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qrvo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pwr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.480Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qcom",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dgx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rjf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rtx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/o",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/reg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/regn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rsg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ResMed (RMD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rmd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rhi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rok",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Rollins (ROL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rol",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rop",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rost",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rcl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spgi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/crm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/see",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sre",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/now",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/shw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swks",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sna",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Southern Company (SO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/so",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/luv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbux",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Steris (STE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ste",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sivb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/snps",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmus",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trow",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ttwo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Tapestry (TPR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tpr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tgt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tel",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Teradyne (TER)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ter",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Tesla (TSLA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsla",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tjx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsco",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trmb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Twitter (TWTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/twtr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tyl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"UDR (UDR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/udr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ulta",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/usb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uaa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ua",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ual",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ups",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"United Rentals (URI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uri",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uhs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vlo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/var",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrtx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/viac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtrs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/v",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vontier (VNT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vnt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vno",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vmc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wab",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Walmart (WMT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wba",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wat",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wec",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/well",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wst",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wdc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for WestRock (WRK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/whr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wltw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wynn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xel",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xerox (XRX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xrx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xlnx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xyl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/yum",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbra",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
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- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zion",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
- "options": [],
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- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zts",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:10.481Z",
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- "title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "74.23% (72 out of 97) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "33.33% (22 out of 66) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "51.92% (27 out of 52) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:12.893Z",
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- "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "10.34% (9 out of 87) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:13.443Z",
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- "title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/niz-chavez-v-barr/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "28.00% (14 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:14.003Z",
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- "title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/california-v-texas-standing/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:14.536Z",
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- "title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:15.091Z",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.30158730158730157,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
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- "title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/van-buren-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:15.624Z",
- "options": [
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- "title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/nestle-usa-inc-v-doe-i/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:16.053Z",
- "options": [
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cic-services-llc-v-internal-revenue-service/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:16.910Z",
- "options": [
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/edwards-v-vannoy/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "36.00% (18 out of 50) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:17.453Z",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.64,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/henry-schein-inc-v-archer/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:17.878Z",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.0625,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9375,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
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- {
- "title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/collins-v-mnuchin/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:18.304Z",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.8484848484848485,
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- {
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- "probability": 0.1515151515151515,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
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- {
- "title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:18.732Z",
- "options": [
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/pham-v-guzman-chavez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:19.158Z",
- "options": [
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/amg-capital-management-llc-v-ftc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:19.581Z",
- "options": [
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/bp-plc-v-mayor-and-city-council-of-baltimore/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:20.009Z",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
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- "probability": 0.7777777777777778,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
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- {
- "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "30.00% (3 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:20.425Z",
- "options": [
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- {
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- "probability": 0.7,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
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- {
- "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:20.842Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
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- {
- "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "30.77% (4 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:21.276Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3076923076923077,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6923076923076923,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
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- {
- "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "70.00% (7 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:21.692Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 10,
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- {
- "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:22.103Z",
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- "numforecasts": 9,
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- {
- "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "84.62% (11 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:22.521Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15384615384615385,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "55.56% (5 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:22.934Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5555555555555556,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4444444444444444,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 9,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/yellen-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:23.342Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3333333333333333,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666667,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:23.755Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:24.167Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:24.576Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/greer-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:24.988Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/minerva-surgical-inc-v-hologic-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:25.399Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:25.807Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/guam-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:26.216Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/thomas-more-law-center-v-becerra/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:26.624Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-becerra/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:27.034Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/hollyfrontier-cheyenne-refining-llc-v-renewable-fuels-association/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:27.446Z",
- "options": [
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-palomar-santiago/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:27.858Z",
- "options": [
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:28.270Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:28.678Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- "probability": 0,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:29.095Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 9,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-arthrex-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:29.510Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8235294117647058,
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- {
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- "probability": 0.17647058823529416,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/carr-v-saul/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "27.78% (5 out of 18) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:29.927Z",
- "options": [
- {
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- {
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- "probability": 0.7222222222222222,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/smith-nephew-inc-v-arthrex-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:30.339Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arthrex-inc-v-smith-nephew-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:30.756Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
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- {
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- "probability": 0.8571428571428572,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:31.173Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8571428571428572,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "35.14% (13 out of 37) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:31.598Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35135135135135137,
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- {
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- "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
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- "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
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- "title": "This grant does not lead to any new top charities.",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
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- "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall",
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- "description": "(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
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- "title": "Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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- {
- "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
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- "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
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- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
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- "title": "By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
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- "title": "We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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- {
- "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
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- "title": "Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
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- "title": "Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
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- "title": "Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
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- "options": [
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- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
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- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
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- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
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- "title": "The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
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- {
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- "title": "The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
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- {
- "title": "We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
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- "options": [
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- "title": "Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- {}
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- {
- "title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
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- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.",
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- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
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- "title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project",
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- "title": "By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project",
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- "title": "By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
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- "title": "We recommend a second grant to CPSP",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 3 January 2023?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. In the case of phased increases, the question would resolve based on the final hourly rate to be implemented and irrespective of any indexing. The effective date of an increase would be immaterial.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, to less than $10.00, Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00, Yes, to $15.00 or more, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, to less than $10.00",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, to $15.00 or more",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from EV-volumes.com whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV & PHEV share for 2020 was 4.2%.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 4.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 7.0%",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 23%, Between 23% and 27%, inclusive, More than 27%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 23%",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 27%",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower by more than 8%, Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive , Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% , Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower by more than 8%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by more than 4%",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "At or below 2020 levels, Higher by between 0% and 100%, Higher by more than 100%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "At or below 2020 levels",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by more than 100%",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "10% or less",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1977-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-1-may-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500, Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive, More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500, Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive, More than 12,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:43.319Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 1,500",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 12,000",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "15",
- "numforecasters": "9",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1978-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-1-may-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive, More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000, Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive, More than 850,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:47.531Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 150,000",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 850,000",
- "probability": 0.11109999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "8",
- "numforecasters": "6",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1980-how-many-people-will-have-been-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-in-the-us-as-of-30-april-2021-according-to-the-cdc",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Fully Vaccinated” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 85,000,000, Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000, Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000, Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive, More than 135,000,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:50.939Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 85,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 135,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "5",
- "numforecasters": "5",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 1 May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1976-how-many-us-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-1-may-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 1 May 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 26 April 2021 through 2 May 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:54.789Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 15,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 85,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "6",
- "numforecasters": "4",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1979-how-many-people-in-the-us-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-30-april-2021-according-to-the-cdc",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 130,000,000, Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive, More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000, Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive, More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000, Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive, More than 180,000,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:58.525Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 130,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 180,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "6",
- "numforecasters": "5",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1973-will-scott-morrison-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-australia-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament ([ABC Australia](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/scott-morrison-missteps-fuel-frustration-within-the-coalition/100022234), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/23/australias-prime-minister-vows-to-clean-up-parliament-in-wake-of-new-allegations), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56261504)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:01.555Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "91",
- "numforecasters": "78",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974-will-legislation-raising-the-us-federal-minimum-wage-become-law-before-20-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: Changes to the tipped minimum wage alone would not count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:04.221Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "111",
- "numforecasters": "98",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1975-will-berlin-s-humboldt-forum-open-to-the-general-public-before-1-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-humboldt-forum-in-berlin-is-a-new-kind-of-museum), [The Local (Germany)](https://www.thelocal.de/20201216/rebuilt-prussian-palace-scarred-by-history-opens-in-berlin/), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210323-germany-extends-covid-19-restrictions-into-april-including-strict-easter-lockdown), [Humboldt Forum](https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/)). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 2 April 2021: Only indoor events would count and whether an event charges for attendance would be immaterial.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:06.389Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "51",
- "numforecasters": "41",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1971-will-restaurants-in-new-york-city-nyc-be-permitted-to-offer-indoor-dining-at-85-capacity-or-more-before-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic ([Spectrum News](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/12/15/mondays-with-the-mayor-nyc-full-shutdown-de-blasio-nyc-shutdown-timeline), [WABC](https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-new-york-dining-nyc-restaurants/10395226/)). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity ([nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page](https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-businesses-and-facilities.page), [nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide](https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/article/nyc-restaurant-reopening-guide)). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:08.969Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "178",
- "numforecasters": "144",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972-will-the-un-a-un-agency-and-or-oecd-member-country-publicly-accuse-myanmar-defense-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-using-a-toxic-chemical-against-protesters-to-cause-intentional-death-or-physical-harm-through-its-toxic-properties-before-15-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56492744)). The use of riot control agents (e.g., \"tear gas\"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law ([CWC.gov](https://www.cwc.gov/cwc_treaty_full.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-03/features/perilous-paths%C2%A0weaponizing-toxic-chemicals-law-enforcement), [Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-14/open-forum/Dangerous-Ambiguities-Regulation-of-Riot-Control-Agents-and-Incapacitants-under-the-Chemical-Weapons-Convention_Rev.1.pdf)). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21751357), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/news-briefs/us-alleges-new-syrian-chlorine-attack)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:12.054Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "108",
- "numforecasters": "81",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:15.684Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "148",
- "numforecasters": "84",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:18.506Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $100 billion",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$180 billion or more",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "numforecasters": "41",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:21.744Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "88",
- "numforecasters": "74",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 25 March 2021: The question will close using the nominal figures as reported by FAO.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:24.666Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 100.0",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 130.0",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "63",
- "numforecasters": "43",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:28.137Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 1.7%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 3.1%",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "141",
- "numforecasters": "86",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:31.750Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Father",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mank",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Minari",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nomadland",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Promising Young Woman",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sound of Metal",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Trial of the Chicago 7",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A tie or other outcome",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "126",
- "numforecasters": "79",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:34.514Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mank (David Fincher)",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A tie or other outcome",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "91",
- "numforecasters": "54",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:37.077Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "149",
- "numforecasters": "99",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:40.534Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 19.0 million",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "337",
- "numforecasters": "174",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:44.532Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "153",
- "numforecasters": "97",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:54.378Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "140",
- "numforecasters": "92",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:13:58.492Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $150 billion",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "88",
- "numforecasters": "49",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:01.462Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "211",
- "numforecasters": "117",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:03.688Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "82",
- "numforecasters": "48",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:07.382Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 150,000",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "550,000 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "258",
- "numforecasters": "86",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:09.947Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "171",
- "numforecasters": "97",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:13.261Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2 or more",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "92",
- "numforecasters": "47",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:16.310Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "631",
- "numforecasters": "414",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:19.365Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 4",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 4 and 8",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 9 and 13",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 14 and 18",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 18",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "477",
- "numforecasters": "290",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:21.662Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "494",
- "numforecasters": "384",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:24.641Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "288",
- "numforecasters": "218",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:28.198Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 8,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 14,000,000",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "370",
- "numforecasters": "224",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:32.433Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $0.50",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $5.00",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "97",
- "numforecasters": "34",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:35.730Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 5.4%",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 7.1%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "241",
- "numforecasters": "106",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:38.716Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "197",
- "numforecasters": "63",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:41.312Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "157",
- "numforecasters": "65",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:43.821Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "665",
- "numforecasters": "395",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:46.685Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "99",
- "numforecasters": "54",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:49.556Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "233",
- "numforecasters": "87",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:14:51.962Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "268",
- "numforecasters": "84",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:01.448Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "104",
- "numforecasters": "57",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an \"act of domestic terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:06.925Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "301",
- "numforecasters": "132",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:09.768Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "214",
- "numforecasters": "154",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:12.833Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only SpaceX",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "202",
- "numforecasters": "129",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:15.184Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "190",
- "numforecasters": "95",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:18.232Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brooklyn Nets",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Los Angeles Clippers",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Los Angeles Lakers",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Milwaukee Bucks",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another team",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "171",
- "numforecasters": "57",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:21.434Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "179",
- "numforecasters": "93",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:24.295Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "136",
- "numforecasters": "83",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:27.327Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "339",
- "numforecasters": "128",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:30.683Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "280",
- "numforecasters": "152",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the \"Cumulative Gross\" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:34.761Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $1.75 billion",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "189",
- "numforecasters": "85",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:37.822Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "64",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:40.651Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "108",
- "numforecasters": "71",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:43.207Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "258",
- "numforecasters": "91",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:45.864Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "176",
- "numforecasters": "102",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3e5d525f4c5758575d5f4a5751504d7e5951515a544b5a59535b504a105d5153014d4b5c545b5d4a036f4b5b4d4a5751501b0c0e7d525f4c5758575d5f4a575150). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:48.330Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "430",
- "numforecasters": "204",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the \".CSV\" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:51.891Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "505",
- "numforecasters": "78",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:55.083Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "179",
- "numforecasters": "120",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:15:58.088Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "353",
- "numforecasters": "153",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?\nInformación adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:07.481Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "52",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:11.999Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 226 seats",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "300 seats or more",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "210",
- "numforecasters": "99",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:15.136Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "86",
- "numforecasters": "40",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:18.208Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 18 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "276",
- "numforecasters": "88",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:20.445Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "123",
- "numforecasters": "47",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:24.061Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $150 billion",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "266",
- "numforecasters": "71",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:26.564Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "203",
- "numforecasters": "69",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:29.253Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "142",
- "numforecasters": "75",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:31.757Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "309",
- "numforecasters": "147",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the \"Leveraged Loan Trends\" section, click on the \"Default Rate\" tab to show the \"Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)\" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:34.372Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "283",
- "numforecasters": "96",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:36.792Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "116",
- "numforecasters": "37",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:39.775Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "201",
- "numforecasters": "71",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:43.223Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "218",
- "numforecasters": "108",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:46.664Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.500",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3.000",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "312",
- "numforecasters": "77",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:48.804Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "241",
- "numforecasters": "88",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:51.750Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "130",
- "numforecasters": "87",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Whether a launched stablecoin is backed by a single currency or multiple currencies is immaterial.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:53.971Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "184",
- "numforecasters": "83",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:56.619Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "288",
- "numforecasters": "68",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:16:59.908Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "522",
- "numforecasters": "198",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:02.647Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only by the FDA",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only by the EMA",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "482",
- "numforecasters": "220",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNote 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:11.074Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "292",
- "numforecasters": "148",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:14.065Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "394",
- "numforecasters": "231",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:16.693Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "322",
- "numforecasters": "106",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:20.408Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only Michael Spavor",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "376",
- "numforecasters": "106",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:23.039Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "265",
- "numforecasters": "128",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:26.183Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "302",
- "numforecasters": "102",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Yes, an announced release date of what would be the sixth book in the series would count even if the title is changed from \"The Winds of Winter.\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:28.635Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "91",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the \"Bank Rate\" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:34.056Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "434",
- "numforecasters": "218",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file \"Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change.\" See the row designated \"10\" under \"SUMLEV\" and \"United States\" under \"NAME.\" The relevant data are titled \"INTERNATIONALMIG[year].\" For methodological information, see the \"Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population\" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:37.038Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "124",
- "numforecasters": "62",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:39.408Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "97",
- "numforecasters": "33",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:43.179Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $2.00",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $3.50",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "308",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:45.822Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only for president",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only for parliament",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, for both president and parliament",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "150",
- "numforecasters": "31",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:48.723Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another candidate",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "246",
- "numforecasters": "88",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" fell below 20%?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.\nThe Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:52.023Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "674",
- "numforecasters": "216",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:54.678Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 5.0%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 8.0%",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "606",
- "numforecasters": "260",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:17:57.825Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 150,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "350,000 or more",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "569",
- "numforecasters": "223",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:00.776Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "379",
- "numforecasters": "213",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:04.346Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "250",
- "numforecasters": "128",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:06.813Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "354",
- "numforecasters": "189",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:09.622Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "364",
- "numforecasters": "172",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:19.310Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "390",
- "numforecasters": "92",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:21.832Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "265",
- "numforecasters": "67",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:24.966Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "347",
- "numforecasters": "179",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the \"Annual Reports on Form 10-K\" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:27.461Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "284",
- "numforecasters": "111",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:30.308Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5 or 6",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7 or 8",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "9 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "1566",
- "numforecasters": "240",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:33.994Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "331",
- "numforecasters": "75",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:36.522Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "217",
- "numforecasters": "65",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:39.864Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or more",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "164",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:42.712Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "143",
- "numforecasters": "55",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:46.098Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 December 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "613",
- "numforecasters": "165",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:49.274Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "814",
- "numforecasters": "159",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:52.284Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 2.00%",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 8.00%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "576",
- "numforecasters": "249",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:55.451Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.0 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.6 million",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "537",
- "numforecasters": "96",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:18:58.375Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "223",
- "numforecasters": "66",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:00.963Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "438",
- "numforecasters": "165",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:04.076Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "England",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Italy",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Spain",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another country",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "There will not be a 2020-21 final winner",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "428",
- "numforecasters": "117",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:07.068Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 19 October 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 24 May 2021",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "731",
- "numforecasters": "210",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:10.074Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "1240",
- "numforecasters": "467",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:12.816Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "401",
- "numforecasters": "164",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, \"voting system\" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:15.138Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "358",
- "numforecasters": "162",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:24.285Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "770",
- "numforecasters": "170",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:29.655Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "938",
- "numforecasters": "171",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:32.680Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "338",
- "numforecasters": "77",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:35.058Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "690",
- "numforecasters": "194",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed \"as of,\" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.\nNOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:38.551Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "2 or fewer",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or more",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "487",
- "numforecasters": "100",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:41.196Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 25,000",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 250,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "392",
- "numforecasters": "127",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:44.088Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "331",
- "numforecasters": "114",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered \"powered\" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery\nNOTE 2 October 2020: For purposes of this question, a \"passenger vehicle\" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:47.862Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1 or 2",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3 or 4",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5 or 6",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "296",
- "numforecasters": "84",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:50.424Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "962",
- "numforecasters": "336",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:53.091Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "306",
- "numforecasters": "140",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:55.363Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "694",
- "numforecasters": "147",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to \"face criminal charges\" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, a firm, Yes, a paid backup driver, Yes, both, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:19:58.614Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, a firm",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "261",
- "numforecasters": "100",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:01.633Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 2.2 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.0 million",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "277",
- "numforecasters": "61",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab. First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to be only \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:05.304Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 5,300",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6,500",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "248",
- "numforecasters": "49",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:07.927Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, the Olympics only",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, the Paralympics only",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "2408",
- "numforecasters": "975",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:10.787Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "252",
- "numforecasters": "114",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:14.119Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 700,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2,200,000",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "315",
- "numforecasters": "85",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph \"Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)\" when the filter for \"Charger type\" is set to \"Fast (>22kW)\" and the filters at the top of the page are set to \"European Union\" and \"2022\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000 but less than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:19.068Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 25,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30,000 but less than 35,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 40,000",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "292",
- "numforecasters": "78",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:21.869Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "407",
- "numforecasters": "224",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:30.271Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "196",
- "numforecasters": "90",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was \"a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh\" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:33.357Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $80 per kWh",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $140 per kWh",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "297",
- "numforecasters": "98",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:36.114Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 2.5%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 8.5%",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "456",
- "numforecasters": "153",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.\nPlease note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:38.749Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "272",
- "numforecasters": "98",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.\nPlease note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:41.535Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "314",
- "numforecasters": "136",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.676Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04901960784313725,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9509803921568627,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.677Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, more than 121, No, not more than 121",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.677Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, more than 121",
- "probability": 0.24742268041237112,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No, not more than 121",
- "probability": 0.7525773195876287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.677Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Pierre de Villiers, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Eric Piolle, Another woman, Another man",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.505Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pierre de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.14150943396226415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.5471698113207547,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Piolle",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another woman",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another man",
- "probability": 0.14150943396226415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Macron and Le Pen, Macron, but not Le Pen, Le Pen, but not Macron, Neither of them",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.505Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Macron and Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neither of them",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "In June, 2021 (as planned), Later in 2021, Not in 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Later in 2021",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not in 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "France, Japan, Same medals count",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Japan",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same medals count",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nov-Dec, 2020, January 2021, February 2021, March 2021, Maybe later, April 2021, May 2021, June 2021, Maybe after June 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nov-Dec, 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "February 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "April 2021",
- "probability": 0.010101010101010102,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "May 2021",
- "probability": 0.16161616161616163,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "June 2021",
- "probability": 0.22222222222222224,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe after June 2021",
- "probability": 0.6060606060606061,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/)",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "In May or earlier, in June (government goal), in July, in August, Maybe later",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "In May or earlier",
- "probability": 0.010101010101010102,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in June (government goal)",
- "probability": 0.6565656565656566,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in July",
- "probability": 0.21212121212121215,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in August",
- "probability": 0.06060606060606061,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.06060606060606061,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9207920792079207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered \"from PJD\".",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani, Abdelilah Benkirane, Someone else from PJD, Someone else not from PJD",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
- "probability": 0.08888888888888889,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane",
- "probability": 0.07777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else from PJD",
- "probability": 0.05555555555555555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else not from PJD",
- "probability": 0.7777777777777779,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "> 148 (more than currently), 128 (absolute majority) to 148 , < 128",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "> 148 (more than currently)",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "128 (absolute majority) to 148 ",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "< 128",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.367Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4251968503937008,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5748031496062993,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Denis Sassou Nguesso, Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas, Mathias Dzon, Someone else, No election in 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.367Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mathias Dzon",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Idriss Déby Itno, Saleh Kezabo, Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo, Succès Masra, Someone else, No election in 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.367Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Idriss Déby Itno",
- "probability": 0.951923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Saleh Kezabo",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Succès Masra",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Abshir Aden Ferro, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Someone else, No election in 2021",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.370Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed",
- "probability": 0.8924731182795698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro",
- "probability": 0.01075268817204301,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.01075268817204301,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.01075268817204301,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 0.07526881720430106,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the \"Number of commercial flights...\" chart.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Q1, 2021 (or before), Q2, 2021, Q3, 2021, Q4, 2021, Maybe later",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.320Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.29292929292929293,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.4141414141414142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.16161616161616163,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.13131313131313133,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Benjamin Netanyahu, Another Likud politician, Another politician not from Likud",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.320Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.7920792079207921,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another Likud politician",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another politician not from Likud",
- "probability": 0.19801980198019803,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Worse than the 2012 record, Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012, Not worse than 2020",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.321Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
- "probability": 0.2277227722772277,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
- "probability": 0.297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not worse than 2020",
- "probability": 0.4752475247524752,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Marcus Söder (CSU), Armin Laschet (CDU), Another member of CDU/CSU, A member of SPD, A member of the Green party, Someone else",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.321Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
- "probability": 0.2767857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
- "probability": 0.4017857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A member of SPD",
- "probability": 0.044642857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A member of the Green party",
- "probability": 0.23214285714285715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "in Q1, 2021, in Q2, 2021, in Q3, 2021, in Q4, 2021, Perhaps later",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.321Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "in Q1, 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.3092783505154639,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.18556701030927833,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.19587628865979378,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Perhaps later",
- "probability": 0.3092783505154639,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "USA, France, Germany, United Kingdom",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:03.434Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.6176470588235294,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.3431372549019608,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "USA, France, Germany, United Kingdom",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:03.434Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.9207920792079207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "≥ 32,000, ≤ 28,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "≥ 32,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "≤ 28,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "≥ 6,000, ≤ 5,000",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "≥ 6,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "≤ 5,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the new Bond film \"No Time to Die\" be released in 2021?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9509803921568627,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04901960784313725,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9504950495049505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?\"\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. \nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's \"primary\" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).* \nThe relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (\"no measures\") rises at 45 or more in the \"7 days average\" version of the graph.\nIf OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of \"no measures for workplace closures.\" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.\n*For this question, \"no measures for workplace closures\" will correspond to a 0 for the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Election Winner",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
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- "probability": 0.5555555555555556,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Dehenna Davison to become UK PM before 2060",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "UK to rejoin EU before end 2025",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.058823529411764705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9411764705882353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Rishi Sunak to become PM before next general election",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "David Lammy to be UK PM before end 2040",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.004975124378109453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9950248756218906,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Marcus Rashford To Become Uk Pm Before 2060",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Libertarian Party to win US Presidential election before 2041",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9803921568627451,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Nigel Farage to become UK PM in 2021",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.004975124378109453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9950248756218906,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Amanda Gorman to be elected US President in 2036",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Marcus Rashford to become a UK MP before 2060",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9705882352941176,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Boris Johnson to be replaced as PM before end 2022",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "LadBrokes",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.004975124378109453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9950248756218906,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:28.129Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:29.969Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:33.475Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.\nThese electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:\n--- \n[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.\n--- \n[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.\nPlurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.\nThis question asks:\nIn the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?\nResolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. \n--- \nStates using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as \"plurality\", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.\n--- \nStates which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.\n--- \nIf the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:35.518Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-03T11:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:37.314Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:39.354Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:41.116Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.\nHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) \nIn late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. \nThe next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.\nWhat percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?\nThe question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. \nIn the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.\nIf the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. \nIf the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.\nIf the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nA candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:42.835Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-18T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:44.766Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:46.709Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:50.318Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 526,
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock?\nWill Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021.\nLocal elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021.\nThis question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced.\nResolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:53.756Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:57.701Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:02.969Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 326,
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:05.268Z",
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- "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:07.447Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:09.421Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 291,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:13.517Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:15.410Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 231,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:17.580Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 549,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:19.512Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:21.523Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:23.325Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:25.167Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:27.148Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:29.032Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:32.251Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 279,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:34.856Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:36.907Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:38.678Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:40.625Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:42.317Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:45.450Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:47.411Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:49.802Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 639,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:51.631Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated.\nThis question asks:\nHow much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100.\nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as the total amount donated during its existence. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Donations from all athletes who count as having taken the pledge at the time of their donation will count, regardless of what later happens either to the athlete or the minimum recommended pledge. \n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:53.337Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:55.728Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 733,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:57.625Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:22:59.394Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:01.197Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:03.185Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:05.247Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:07.104Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:08.858Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)).\nIf success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.\nMoreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.\nHow many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more. \nFor a company to qualify as a \"clean meat company\" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\" or \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.\nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nThe resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.\nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:10.793Z",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:12.856Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
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- {
- "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:18.303Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:20.131Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:25.766Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:27.673Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
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- {
- "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:29.991Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6979/starship-survives-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX has had four flights where prototypes of their Starship vehicle have gone above 10 km, each time resulting in a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly- on landing for SN8 and SN9, 8 minutes after landing in the case of SN10, and SN11 in midair.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?\nThis question resolves to the time that an upper stage vehicle made by SpaceX, representative of a vehicle that SpaceX officials expect to bring humans to Mars, flies to a height of at least 10 km, and remains continuously intact for at least 24 hours after making contact with the Earth after flight. If the ship experiences an RUD or has more than 15% of the mass of its main body no longer connected to the main body within 24 hours of landing, that flight will not trigger resolution.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:31.667Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 17,
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T02:07:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-08-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T06:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:33.501Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:35.370Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:37.143Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
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- "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n",
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- {
- "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:48.308Z",
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- "probability": 0.61,
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- "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:50.214Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:54.103Z",
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- "numforecasts": 61,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:55.997Z",
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- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:23:57.923Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:00.999Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:03.050Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-11-13T08:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:05.114Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:07.188Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 231,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:09.249Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:10.933Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:13.134Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:14.928Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:16.890Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:19.041Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:21.189Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:22.955Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:24.641Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:26.826Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:28.768Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:30.594Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:32.552Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:34.428Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:36.487Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:40.102Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 545,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:41.920Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:44.009Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 273,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:45.724Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:47.692Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 393,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:49.542Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:51.405Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:53.445Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:55.197Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:57.394Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 521,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:24:59.170Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:00.861Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:02.778Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:04.580Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:06.376Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:08.245Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:11.632Z",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:15.635Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:17.548Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 187,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:19.689Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.\nHere, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?\nNote that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.\nClosing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:21.477Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 149,
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- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:23.495Z",
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- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
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- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:33.182Z",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:34.976Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 238,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:36.882Z",
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- "numforecasts": 104,
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:38.737Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 196,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:40.608Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:42.422Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:44.229Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:46.109Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 222,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:48.131Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 219,
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:50.103Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 510,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:52.299Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 345,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:55.948Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:57.718Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:25:59.488Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:01.276Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:03.073Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:04.876Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:06.611Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:08.366Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:10.490Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:12.448Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:14.415Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:16.426Z",
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- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:18.246Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
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- "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:23.722Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:25.542Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:27.251Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- {
- "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:28.932Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
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- {
- "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
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- {
- "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
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- "title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:48.025Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\nThere have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100. \nOR\nThere have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100. \nOR\nRay Kurzweil lives to the age of 120. \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n",
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- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
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- "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:26:53.649Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
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- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:01.171Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 23,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again.\nBesides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028.\nWhen will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?\nThis question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.\nIn line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:02.853Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 19,
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
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- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
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- "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:10.020Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:11.807Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:13.619Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:15.465Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 148,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:17.201Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:19.153Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:20.841Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:22.553Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:24.410Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T18:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:26.272Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:28.051Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:29.863Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:31.776Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:34.091Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 214,
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:36.032Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:37.804Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 157,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:39.560Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:41.561Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 92,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:44.989Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:46.804Z",
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- "numforecasts": 109,
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:48.900Z",
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- "probability": 0.61,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:50.760Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:52.657Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:54.579Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:56.437Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:27:58.484Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:00.295Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:01.967Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:03.765Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:05.564Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 138,
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:07.702Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:09.752Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 131,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:11.629Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 306,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:13.433Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:15.254Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:18.258Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 36,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:20.162Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:21.961Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:23.765Z",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:25.470Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:27.308Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 169,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:29.120Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:31.110Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:32.954Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:35.040Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:36.704Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:38.469Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:40.287Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "World Population in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:42.094Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 319,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \">\".\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:43.971Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:45.770Z",
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- "probability": 0.84,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:47.790Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
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- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:51.432Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:28:58.333Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
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- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:00.046Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:02.003Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:07.792Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:11.657Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 333,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:13.616Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:18.020Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:19.933Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:21.755Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:23.599Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 117,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:25.549Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 472,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:27.300Z",
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- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 26,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:29.189Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:32.628Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 162,
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:36.373Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:42.351Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 72,
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:44.283Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n",
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- "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:48.179Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "title": "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:43:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. \nOne of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. \nACE explicitly includes \"the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)\" as part of \"Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture\", one of their seven [evaluation criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to [Encompass](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ePDKZMpoGdx7J3PBh/announcing-our-summer-2020-ace-movement-grants#Encompass___35_000_). \nWill ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?\nWhether an event is a \"scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination\" will be resolved per the [\"I know it when I see it\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:53.415Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:55.251Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:57.099Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:29:58.929Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 484,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:00.871Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:02.600Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:04.643Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:07.847Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \">2050-09-05\". \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:09.564Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-09-05T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:11.776Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:13.599Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:15.273Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:17.072Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:18.937Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:20.869Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 204,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:23.076Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:25.028Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:27.040Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 758,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:29.141Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
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- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will PHP die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:30.977Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:33.035Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:34.949Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
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- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:38.608Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:40.657Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:42.564Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:46.962Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:48.915Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 106,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:51.005Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:52.693Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
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- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2031\".\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:56.696Z",
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- "numforecasts": 89,
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6928/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:30:58.445Z",
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:00.336Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 258,
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:02.187Z",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n---Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship. \n---In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020. \n---In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)). \n---France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients). \n---The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used. \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.\nWill the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.\n",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:08.155Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:10.004Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:11.859Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:13.811Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:15.851Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:17.855Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:19.807Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:22.109Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:25.560Z",
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- "probability": 0.31,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:27.272Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
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- "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
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- "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:32.987Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:34.698Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:36.725Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:39.214Z",
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- "numforecasts": 68,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
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- "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:41.286Z",
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- "numforecasts": 27,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:43.381Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
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- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:45.256Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:52.821Z",
- "options": [],
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- {
- "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:54.694Z",
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- "title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:31:56.594Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
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- "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
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- "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
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- "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
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- {
- "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
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- "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:11.670Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:14.068Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.\nThis question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?\nQuestion resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:15.904Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\nSeasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\nProponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\nNo one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\nAs an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\nThe first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.\nWill there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:17.605Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "American and European media and political institutions are [drawing](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-border-concerning-united-states/) [attention](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-russian-military-buildup-border/31180563.html) to a Russian military buildup in the Donbass and Crimea. This is after several weeks of reports from [Ukrainian](https://strana.ua/news/322516-nastuplenie-vsu-na-donbasse-cheho-zhdat-ot-obostrenija-v-zone-oos.html), [Russian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFUdFKgxkFk), and LDNR sources about a Ukrainian military buildup at the frontlines in Donbass, which had until now been little noticed in the West except in OSINT/[military watcher](https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1370418913641701379) circles. Old positions in the demarcation zones have been reoccupied by Ukrainian and NAF troops, and there are more frequent [exchanges](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html) of artillery fire.\nWill there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?\nResolves positively if there are >250 Ukrainian military deaths in any given month within the next half year (until Oct 1, 2021, inclusive) on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine.\nSource used will be [MemoryBook](http://memorybook.org.ua/indexfile/statmonth.htm) (reprinted on [Wikipedia page](https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%85_%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BA_%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%B2_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%83) reprinting its stats), or another credible source should there be a strong consensus that this one has become incredible or obsolete.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:20.960Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-07T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:22.976Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:24.722Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:26.542Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:28.399Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:30.355Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:32.399Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:34.223Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 49,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:36.454Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 403,
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:38.430Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:42.064Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 405,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:44.085Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 314,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:45.938Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:47.771Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:49.556Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 23,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:51.332Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:54:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:54.850Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:32:56.719Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 60,
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- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:19.280Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 255,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:21.049Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:23.138Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:24.849Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:26.733Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:28.491Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 22,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:30.531Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 323,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:32.345Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.\nHow many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?\nFor reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.\n* Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:34.318Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-08T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:42.965Z",
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- "probability": 0.84,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
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- "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:47.321Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177.\nHow many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?\nThis question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A \"patient\" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:49.320Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:51.569Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 580,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:53.449Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:55.374Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:57.425Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 216,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:35:59.428Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:01.484Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 340,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:03.501Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:05.291Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:07.248Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:09.260Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:11.180Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:13.292Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:15.425Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:19.216Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\nWill the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.\n",
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- "close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:24.984Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:26.867Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:33.206Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:35.010Z",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
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- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:40.162Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:44.376Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:46.144Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:48.670Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:50.880Z",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- {
- "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:36:56.502Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
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- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).\nIf Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "probability": 0.01,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
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- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
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- "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:03.707Z",
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- {
- "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:05.936Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
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- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n",
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- "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
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- "name": "No",
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- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
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- "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:18.317Z",
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- "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n",
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- "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
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- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:24.027Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 882,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:25.892Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:27.687Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:29.676Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:31.701Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:33.976Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:35.901Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:37.951Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 281,
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- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:40.130Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:43.384Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:45.135Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:47.768Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:49.628Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:51.668Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:53.855Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:55.557Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:58.044Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:37:59.735Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:01.645Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:06.090Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:08.055Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 260,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:09.738Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:11.843Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 291,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:13.584Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:15.479Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:17.423Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:19.465Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 117,
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- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:22.807Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T08:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:24.736Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:27.103Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1184,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:28.862Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:30.598Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:33.017Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 2890,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:34.894Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:36.934Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:38.770Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 213,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:40.548Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T12:50:36Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-17T12:50:36Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:45.191Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 288,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nMetaculus predicts that we will cross the [2 degree Celsius threshold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/) for climate change by 2043. After the US’s [separation from the Paris Agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930312701/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement) this year in 2020, the federal government allocated [0.8% of their total budget](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) to protecting the environment and our natural resources, at a total value of only $77 million dollars. In 2017, while the US still remained in the Paris Agreement, the budget represented 1% of the total, still an extremely small value in comparison to federal spending on a number of other significant issues. \nHow much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:46.940Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm).\nIn the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en).\nYet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish.\nSimilarly, in the U.S., the [Humane Slaughter Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act) requires animals should be stunned into unconsciousness prior to their slaughter but this excludes poultry, fish, rabbits. \nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nThe [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nAccording to an appropriately named expert on fish stunning, van de Vis, [currently 3 to 4% of farmed fish stunned globally](https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/185/3/70).\nWhat percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide will be estimated to be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide estimated to be stunned in the first calendar year between 2027 and 2032 (inclusive) for which both credible estimates of the number of fish stunned worldwide in aquacultural production are available, and credible estimates for the total number of fish produced by aquacultural production are available.\nFor the purpose of this question, credible estimates, should be those in research deemed sufficiently rigorous and reliable for an admin to judge that there is ≥90% chance for the true number to be within 25% of the median of the estimate. \nStunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food, such as by percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. \nIn case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:48.773Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:50.897Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 283,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:52.687Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:54.475Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:57.957Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:38:59.834Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:01.603Z",
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- "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
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- "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:05.393Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
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- {
- "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "title": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes.\nHow many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?\nThis question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:15.190Z",
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- "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n",
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- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:21.440Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5777/astrazeneca-vaccine-1%25C2%25BD-dose-more-effective/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) \nThe preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\n...\nAstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.\nThe half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)\nAround the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.\nThey soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.\n“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.\nSince the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.\nWill AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?\nThis question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. \nThis question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.)\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "numforecasts": 168,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:26.927Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 884,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:28.980Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 347,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:31.566Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1329,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:33.682Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:35.452Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:39.437Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:43.361Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:45.232Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:47.036Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:48.709Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.\nIn 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1).\nWill India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?\nResolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:50.815Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
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- "close_time": "2021-05-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T10:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6969/when-will-gwp-exceed-1-quadrillion-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:52.605Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-19T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:39:54.401Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:00.313Z",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:02.132Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:04.012Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:06.161Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 145,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:07.994Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:09.945Z",
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- "numforecasts": 77,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:13.598Z",
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- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:15.380Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 316,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:17.203Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:19.150Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:21.026Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:22.819Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:24.630Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:26.488Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:28.255Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:30.135Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 309,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:32.243Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:34.318Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:36.088Z",
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- {
- "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:38.514Z",
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- "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:40.407Z",
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- "title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:42.316Z",
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- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:44.202Z",
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- "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n",
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- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n",
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- "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6880/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nPrevious Questions:\n[Change in US Durable Goods Orders April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:53.424Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 24,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-28T19:09:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:56.948Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:40:59.516Z",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:01.571Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 84,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:12.546Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
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- "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
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- "probability": 0.49,
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- "probability": 0.51,
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- "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:19.660Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 492,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:21.578Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:23.256Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:25.315Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:27.440Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve?\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:30.080Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:32.454Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:34.391Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 260,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:36.806Z",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 306,
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:39.110Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:40.802Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:42.732Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 120,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:44.644Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 497,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:46.375Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6877/cpi-u--change-for-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:49.906Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-12T22:49:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:51.837Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:54.039Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:55.723Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:41:58.626Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:04.547Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:06.333Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:08.312Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:15.717Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
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- "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:17.585Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).\nApple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).\nTo put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.\nWhen will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:19.611Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T18:52:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-18T17:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-24T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:21.299Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:23.375Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:25.511Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their \"Color of the Year\", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022.\nWhat will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?\nThe question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/).\nThe announcement of the color typically occurs around early December, but the date is not certain, so the question will retroactively close 24 hours before the announcement is made.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following occur:\n---Pantone announces multiple Colors of the Year (as it did for 2016 and 2021). \n---Pantone fails (for any reason) to announce a Color of the Year for 2022 before 2021-12-31. \n---At the time of closing, Encycolorpedia does not have an entry for the color selected as Color of the Year, or the entry does not provide a Hue. \n---The hue reported by Encycolorpedia is outside the range 0-360 (inclusive). \n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:29.234Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:31.524Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):\nFormer White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.\nThe charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others \"orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors\".\nThe indictment claims the \"scheme\" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.\n[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).\nThe official charges are as follows:\n1-- \nBRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”\n2-- \nThose representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.\nWill Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?\n---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). \n---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:33.642Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 330,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:35.555Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:37.746Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWhat will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?\nResolution\nThe question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:\n---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 \n---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 \n---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 \n---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 \n---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 \n---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.\nFor this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?\nHere are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:\n--- \nIn June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.\n--- \nIn November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.\nDevelopment over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)\nWhat sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?\nResolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.\n",
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- "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n",
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- "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:47.419Z",
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- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
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- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n",
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- "title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
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- "title": "How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5672/how-will-donald-trump-rank-among-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Donald Trump is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nPlease note that there have already been two prominent historical rankings of presidents which have included Donald Trump. [One](https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Presidents-2018-Rank-by-Category.pdf) gave him a rank of 42/44 and [another](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/19/opinion/how-does-trump-stack-up-against-the-best-and-worst-presidents.html) gave him a rank of 44/44 (though only 40/44 when you ask only Republican scholars).\nHow will Donald Trump rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Donald Trump in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Donald Trump. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Trump. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:42:57.036Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:43:02.358Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "No",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:43:07.930Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:37:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-19T22:37:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:43:10.065Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 291,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:31.235Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 295,
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- "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:33.330Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 174,
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- "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:35.299Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/02/03/student-loan-debt-statistics/?sh=2341eaad281f),\nThere are 45 million borrowers who collectively owe nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.\nFrom [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/student-loan-forgiveness-may-come-with-tax-bomb-heres-what-you-should-know.html),\nStudent loan forgiveness is looking more like a possibility under President-elect Joe Biden, but an unintended consequence may emerge unless Washington intervenes: a tax on loan forgiveness.\nBiden has proposed creating a new program that would offer borrowers $10,000 of student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.\nSens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have also said that the next president could wipe as much as $50,000 from borrowers’ balances via an executive order.\nThe US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the [Public Service Loan Forgiveness](https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service) program. The [most recent data](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data) shows that the federal government forgave $347,935,412 for the month of September 2020.\nHow many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data [here](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data), downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application\" and \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*\".\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:37.577Z",
- "options": [],
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- {
- "title": "If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. \n1--Venus. \n2--Mars. \n3--Europa. \n4--Ganymede. \n5--Another moon of Jupiter. \n6--Enceladus. \n7--Titan. \n8--Another moon of Saturn. \n9--A dwarf planet. \n10-An asteroid. \n11-Another place in the Solar System. \nResolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:39.774Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
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- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:43.808Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:45.756Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:47.600Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:49.279Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:51.245Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:58.093Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:45:59.933Z",
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- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.35,
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:01.893Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "options": [
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:08.059Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:09.851Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
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- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:11.751Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n",
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- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:15.738Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:17.429Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:19.314Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 594,
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- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:21.339Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:26.919Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:29.786Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:31.864Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. \nHealth-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. \nWhile unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.\nHow many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:33.857Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 27,
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- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:31:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:31:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:35.565Z",
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- "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:41.685Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- },
- {
- "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:44.035Z",
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- "close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:45.843Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z"
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- "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
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- "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:49.603Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 105,
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:46:53.450Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 44,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
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- "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n",
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- {
- "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:01.235Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:04.214Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:06.226Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:08.225Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:09.891Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:11.566Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:13.265Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:15.022Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:17.021Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:20.737Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:14:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:22.512Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:26.317Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:30.214Z",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:32.364Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:34.032Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).\nA recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.\nSummaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).\nThis question asks:\nBefore 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.\nIn the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.\nIf an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.\nThis resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. \n",
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- "title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\nThe day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\nOur custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
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- "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n",
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- {
- "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:46.243Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will One Piece end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:47.944Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:50.019Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 325,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:52.056Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:54.142Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:56.129Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:57.972Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:47:59.780Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:01.913Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:03.770Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
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- {
- "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:08.128Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:09.891Z",
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- "numforecasts": 90,
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- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:11.596Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:13.407Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:15.556Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:17.919Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:19.729Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 62,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:23.222Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
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- "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:24.885Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:26.660Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:28.561Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:30.293Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:31.991Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:33.806Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:35.805Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:37.686Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:39.490Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:41.340Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:43.113Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:44.994Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:46.971Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:48.829Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:50.799Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:53.941Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:55.661Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 27,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).\nIn the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).\nFortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.\nWhen will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.\nExamples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). \nThe specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.\nIf the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as \"> Oct 2, 2035\".\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:57.465Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:48:59.449Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:01.137Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:02.906Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:04.694Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 56,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:06.602Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:08.801Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 435,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:10.598Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:12.294Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:14.114Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:16.088Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 104,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:18.057Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:19.840Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:21.546Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:23.638Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:25.706Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-05T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-15T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:29.111Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:31.028Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. \nAs such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken?\nWhen will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?\nThis question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:32.995Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with >30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:34.954Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:36.836Z",
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- {
- "title": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:38.672Z",
- "options": [],
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- {
- "title": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).\nWhen will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?\nThis question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.\nIf it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.\nIf it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:40.458Z",
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- {
- "title": "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) \"the market value of all the final goods and services produced\". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.\nOne notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).\nDenmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?\nResolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:42.279Z",
- "options": [],
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- {
- "title": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:44.226Z",
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- {
- "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:46.087Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:47.755Z",
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- {
- "title": "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:49.463Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T22:44:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:51.449Z",
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- {
- "title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\"](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm) according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:49:53.293Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:01.393Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:03.357Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. \nWill Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:05.581Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nThis question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of the Eurozone as of February 10 2019 (that is, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain) cease to use the Euro as its official currency? \nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 224,
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- "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:09.438Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 276,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:11.334Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:13.189Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 287,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:14.977Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 185,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. \nAs [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports:\n“Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” \nForecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orbit are affected by an increased atmospheric drag. Moreover, [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) and CMEs during the period surrounding solar maximum can severely damage satellite electronics and present degradations to a variety of communications technologies. \nOn what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maxima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:16.925Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-11T02:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:16:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:18.900Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:20.749Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?\nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:22.877Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:26.411Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 93,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy)\nOpen Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?\nCari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.\nAs of 2020, Open Phil [has donated a little over $1 billion](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants), almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?\nMoney donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.\nBy the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:28.270Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2623-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:31.963Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 156,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:33.851Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 169,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:35.882Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: \n“ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” \nBeisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten times as frequent at the solar maxima than at the minimum](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent). \n[CMEs allow for solar wind and particles to escape the sun and move towards Earth](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming), which can cause geo-magnetic storms and auroral displays. \nWhat will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution criteria will be provided by the [SOHO LASCO CME catalog](https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) provided by the CDAW data center by NASA and the Catholic University of America with the Naval Research Laboratory. The size of the CME will be determined by its kinetic energy (KE). This question will resolve ambiguously if no data is available, or it is incalculable due to missing values.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:37.672Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 18,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T02:34:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zł464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zł462.00 four months earlier.\n[Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning)](https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2020/12/call-transcript_en.pdf), contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zł238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack).\nWill CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the stock price of CDR reaches zł462.00 or greater, at any time during regular trading hours, by the end of 2021, as indicated on [TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/GPW-CDR/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:39.504Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:41.487Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as >2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:43.452Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:47.248Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:10:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:49.903Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-29T21:53:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:51.822Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.\nThis question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?\nThis question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:50:53.966Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-25T03:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n",
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- "title": "When will zettascale computing be achieved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n",
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- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:06.293Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. Its holdings include Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, amongst others.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14, in nominal USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2021-06-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be given in nominal USD.\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:10.104Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.).\nSince approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein:\nRoughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed.\nIn the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?\nResolution\nEstimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food & Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:12.043Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:15.268Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:24:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-10T22:24:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:17.748Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 211,
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- "publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.\nEarlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.\nThis [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context: \nIt is incredibly rare for a 3-year-old to even grasp the rules of chess, let alone play at a high level. Misha Osipov is not a grandmaster or even a master-level player, but he is still strong enough to beat many club-level adult players. His rating is high enough to place him among the top 20 of American players under the age of 7. None of those players is under the age of 5. \nFor more context, consider that the [youngest ever person](https://new.uschess.org/news/christopher-yoo-breaks-record-for-youngest-ever-master/) to achieve the chess master ranking was 9 year old David Yoo in 2016.\nWhen, if ever, will Misha become a chess master?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:20.490Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-06T04:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:24.179Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 251,
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:28.648Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:30.422Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 77,
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters of the recall have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to require a recall election. In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot.\nThe Constitution of California allows for recall elections to be held, if petitioners can collect signatures equal to 12% of the number of votes cast in the last election. In 2018, 12,464,235 total votes were cast in the governor's race.\nThe current recall petition has currently collected [495 thousand](https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/newsom-heatlie-sixth.pdf) signatures out of the 1.5 million needed.\nWill California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ?\nThis question resolves positive if the California Secretary of State certifies that a recall petition has reached the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall. This question is for any recall effort which is sucessfully submitted by March 31, 2022, even if the current petition does not reach the required signatures.\nThe counting of the signatures and verification may take longer than March 31, 2022 to be confirmed. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-01T18:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-15T17:15:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:36.934Z",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nBoulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.\nColorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.\nHow many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:40.461Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 75,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T23:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:48:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:44.414Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-11-10T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:\n1-- \nThe US government\n2-- \nSpaceX\n3-- \nAnother government\n4-- \nAnother corporation or private organization\n5-- \nOther (somehow)\nAlthough Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the \"weight\" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.\nResolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.\nCloses retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:48.428Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 233,
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:50.290Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:52.223Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:54.022Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 246,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:51:56.272Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n",
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- "close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:09.635Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:12.036Z",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:14.145Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the UK hold its next general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:15.953Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:17.771Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 65,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:20.061Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:21.880Z",
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:23.676Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:25.671Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:27.900Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:31.105Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many of the \"priority paths\" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:32.794Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-31T14:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:34.607Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 278,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:38.449Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:40.673Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:43.159Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 491,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths.\nCryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible.\nChances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops.\nI thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the next 30 years:\nWhat percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:44.906Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2133-06-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nBy 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? \nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:51.023Z",
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
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- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:52.728Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:54.525Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:52:56.652Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\nWill Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?\n---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. \n---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. \n---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. \n---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 239,
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-14T11:12:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:02.818Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-02T00:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-09T01:45:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year.\nHow much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nThe estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/files/sci-tech/clean-meat-production-volume-and-medium-cost.pdf). \nFor the purpose of this question, we shall adopt the following definition of Plant-Based Meat (based on [GFI, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/new-gfi-report-illustrates-the-state-of-chinas)):\n“plant-based meat” is taken to refer to plant-based products that aim to be direct replacements for animal meat by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of animal meat, and are marketed as doing such.\nA plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. \nFor singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. \nFor larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a \"plant-based meat\" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words \"plant-based meat\" or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"plant-based beef\" or \"plant-based burger\"), and/or variations where \"plant\" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. \"pea-based meat\" or \"soy-protein based chicken\").\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:04.583Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:06.452Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:08.678Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2031-03-28T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:10.727Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:12.723Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:16.576Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is between $8 and $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is less than $8 or greater than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $8 or above $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:18.505Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-25T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question simply asks:\nWhen will the first baby be born away from Earth?\nThe question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at >2120.\nSimilar questions:\n---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:20.506Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 62,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2119-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will a world war begin before January 1st 2151?\nWe define a world war as a war that either, \n---involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. OR \n---involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. \nThe beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.\nShould there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.\nGiven the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind.\nStill, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has been set to January 1st 2161, to provide for 10 years after January 1st 2151.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
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- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:27.879Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [\"nones\" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity.\nPer a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there):\n1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second).\nAt the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% by mid-century. One obvious reason is that \n[r]eligions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. ...[R]eligiously unaffiliated population[s], by contrast, [are] heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.\nImportantly, Pew's projections have not attempted to wade into controversial social theories suggesting that economic development and religiosity are inversely linked. As the report explains, this has been the \"general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe,\" but it is \"not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.\" Indeed, there is [some evidence](https://www.smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/understanding-rapid-rise-charismatic-christianity-southeast-asia) that amongst China's 1.4 billion citizens, increasing affluence may be correlated with or even driving increasing religiosity.\nConsidering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's projections: \nWhat will the portion of the global population identifying as \"religiously unaffiliated\" be in 2050? \nThe resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for \"religiously unaffiliated\" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:29.876Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-11-11T22:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&view=map&year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:31.556Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-07-01T01:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-02T02:50:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:33.690Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 432,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).\nThis question asks:\nWill more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?\nResolution will be by credible media reports. Only deliberate nuclear attacks by nations count for the purpose of resolution. Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:35.828Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:39.382Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:41.253Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:43.208Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 216,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.\nWhat will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:45.064Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:36:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:46.845Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nHow many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:48.659Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:50.485Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:54.344Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 178,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.\nThis question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:56.155Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?\nThis question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.\nThe question resolves as >2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:53:58.068Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 206,
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- "publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:00.186Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:02.282Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:04.398Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 716,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.\nBut will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654).\nWhat will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? \nWe will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, [ems](http://ageofem.com/), genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count. \nResolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.\nInspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:06.959Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-17T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2074-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:08.789Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:10.758Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 164,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:12.970Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 257,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\nWill a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:14.970Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "publish_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:16.780Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 148,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:18.825Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 246,
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- "publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:22.202Z",
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- "numforecasts": 147,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3428/philpapers-survey-mini-series-consciousness-of-future-ai-systems/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the view that future AI systems will be conscious?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"future AI systems\" on the question \"for which groups are some members conscious?\" (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:24.510Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2023-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.\nAs of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08). As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%\nWhen will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?\nThis resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the [National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&pageSEL=sect_01_table.05.html) or any other reputable source of medical statistics.\nClarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according [to NIH data](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:28.187Z",
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- "close_time": "2026-06-18T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-06-23T21:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-09-29T20:16:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:\n---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. \nvs.\n---Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments. \nSocial scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict – a conflict that is contributing to [a decrease in political civility](https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94). Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. \nThis is the topic of [Marvin Minsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky)'s final advice to predictors:\nIt seems to me that the most important discovery since Gödel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but it’s got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\n— Marvin Minsky [Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding](https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403) World Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014\nFor some insight, you can watch the Nature video [\"Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist\"](https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8) based on [H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, “Causal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,” Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0)\nQuestion: Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among [macrosociology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology) models? \nA paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nIt compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.\n2-- \nIt has the keywords \"macrosociology\" or \"macroeconomic\" or some obvious derivation of these such as \"macrosocial\" or \"macroeconomics\".\n3-- \nIt defines \"size\" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of \"length\" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a [self-extracting archive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive) of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of \"size\" is used to award cash in [The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge](http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm) and is also used as a [a language modeling benchmark](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize). \n4-- \nIt defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.\n5-- \nIt is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:33.748Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:35.758Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 216,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:37.558Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:39.357Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:41.467Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:43.267Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus).\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from the value on [Euromomo site once](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:45.107Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:48.578Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3541/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:50.866Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:52.948Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-21T13:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:54:56.663Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill some sentient being ever collect this craft and listen to the Golden Record? This creature could be a genuine ET or a future descendent of humans. (XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:02.229Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\nGiven that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/artificial-drives-real-roads-vs-real-drivers-artificial-roads/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:\n1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) \n2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.\nOption 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. \nNote that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (\"Pokemon auto\"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.\nThe question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.\n",
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- "title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:11.328Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:13.302Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 177,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z"
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:15.464Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.\nWill Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). \nIf the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:19.351Z",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:22.487Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:24.312Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
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- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:26.384Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 100,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:28.418Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
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- "numforecasts": 230,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n",
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- "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
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- "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
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- "title": "If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, \nhow much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n",
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- {
- "title": "How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Caloric restriction is,\na dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. \"Reduce\" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.\nAssume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?\nFor the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that\n--- \nDid not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction\n--- \nQuit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. \n--- \nBegan caloric restriction after the age of 50.\nOf the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:42.659Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:44.659Z",
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- {
- "title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:46.585Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
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- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
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- "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:53.784Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:55:55.710Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T21:06:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will North Korea become a democracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&LangID=E), \"the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.\" The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. \nNorth Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.\nJanuary 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves > in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
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- {
- "title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:05.330Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [\"A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology\".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html)\nThe respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity.\nAn individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals.\nThe design calls for twelve pumping stations to be spaced evenly along an equatorial circle. Each station has its own independent glucose-metabolizing powerplant, glucose tank, environmental glucose sensors, and glucose sorting rotors. Each station alone can generate sufficient energy to power the entire respirocyte, and has an array of 3-stage molecular sorting rotor assemblies for pumping O2, CO2, and H2O from the ambient medium into an interior chamber, and vice versa. The number of rotor sorters in each array is determined both by performance requirements and by the anticipated concentration of each target molecule in the bloodstream.\nThe equatorial pumping station network occupies ~50% of respirocyte surface. On the remaining surface, a universal \"bar code\" consisting of concentric circular patterns of shallow rounded ridges is embossed on each side, centered on the \"north pole\" and \"south pole\" of the device. This coding permits easy product identification by an attending physician with a small blood sample and access to an electron microscope, and may also allow rapid reading by other more sophisticated medical nanorobots which might be deployed in the future.\nThe promise of artificial mechanical red cells is that it gives physicians the ability to precisely control saturation curve profiles independently for oxygen and carbon dioxide, either to maximize gas transport efficiency or to meet specialized demand functions imposed by emergency situations, unusual activities, or specific medical treatments.\nRespirocytes are an example of molecular nanotechnology, a field of technology still in the very earliest, purely hypothetical phase of development. Current technology is not sufficient to build a respirocyte due to considerations of power, atomic-scale manipulation, immune reaction or toxicity, computation and communication. Creation of this kind of device would require multiple technological breakthroughs. For further information on respirocytes, see e.g. [this essay by Freitas.](http://www.kurzweilai.net/respirocytes)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?\nResolves positively upon the publication of an article in a respectable scientific journal indicating that such devices have been successfully used in a living mammal to meaningfully augment and or replace (partially or totally) the existing supply of red blood cells. A meaningful augmentation is an augmentation resulting in a non-trivial increase in overall performance of the existing red cell population. These respirocytes will need to be perform at least some gas transport function, and be principally the product of nanotechnology techniques, including (but not limited to) those outlined by [Freitas' article](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html). This therefore excludes transfusions of modified red blood cells from existing organisms. Finally, the mammal needs to survive at least 7 days after the introduction of the respirocytes.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nClosing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. \nWeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.\nAccording to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. \nAs WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. \nPredictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.\nWhen will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:34:00Z"
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- "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:18.552Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:23.584Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have enacted stimulus packages that have incurred [significant debt](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/29/coronavirus-downturn-likely-to-add-to-high-government-debt-in-some-countries/) at the same time that GDP is shrinking due to the pandemic. [Austria](https://www.reuters.com/article/health-oronavirus-austria-debt/austria-expects-debt-to-gdp-ratio-of-more-than-90-this-year-kurz-says-idUSV9N2BU00L) and the [UK](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-debt-exceeds-gdp-for-first-time-in-60-years-g6lgcbzp9), for example, both expect substantial increases in debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of these two factors.\n[The United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) reached a debt-to-GDP ratio of 118.9% during WWII, which fell sharply afterwards, but has increased in recent decades, to 106.9% in 2019.\nWhat will the US debt-to-GDP ratio be at its maximum between now and the end of 2023?\nThe question resolves as the highest debt-to-GDP ratio between the opening of this question and the end of 2023, when all values through 2023 have been published by the [St. Louis Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:25.514Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "20 more languages extinct by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/322/20-more-languages-extinct-by-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Linguists estimate that humans use around [7,000](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages. Only a few are considered global or widespread languages. The others, although spoken by small regional groups, are often key to the identity and heritage of their respective cultures.\nOnly 102 languages are considered \"International\" or \"National\" and are spoken by [60% of the world's population](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status), despite comprising only 1.4% of all documented modern languages. Globalization, including internet connectivity, international trade, and international travel elevate the importance of these top languages, particularly the six languages with [the most speakers](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/size): Chinese, Spanish, English, Arabic, Hindi, and Portuguese. \nGlobalization can [endanger languages](http://motherboard.vice.com/read/globalization-is-a-leading-factor-in-the-death-of-minority-languages) as well because rising generations learn regional and national languages instead of local or traditional dialects. Estimates of endangered languages range from around [20%](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) to around [50%](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) of all documented languages. Hundreds of languages have already been lost, and the current language death rate is between [four](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) and [six](http://www.ethnologue.com/about) languages per year. [Ethnologue](http://www.ethnologue.com/), an annual report on language status, reports that 360 languages reported as \"living\" in their first 1951 report have since been classified as \"extinct.\" [423](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages are considered [\"nearly extinct,\"](http://www.ethnologue.com/about/language-status) meaning that the only user are aging speakers who have little opportunity to use the language in everyday life.\nBut technology can also help preserve and revitalize languages, with digital documentation and [language resources](http://www.endangeredlanguages.com/) aiming to save some of the most critically endangered languages. Linguists also track languages that are \"reawakening,\" including [seven](http://www.ethnologue.com/country/US/status) in the United States currently enjoying a resurgence.\nWill language loss rates increase by the end of the decade?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the 2021 edition of Ethnologue lists more than 380 extinct languages since 1951, which would indicate a language loss rate greater than four per year, and an acceleration in language loss.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:27.518Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:29.391Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T19:04:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:31.216Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.\nEver since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:\nsome efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.\nThe article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:\nObtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.\nA new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”\nAnother attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.\nWhen will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:33.122Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-03-07T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:35.697Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 97,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:37.504Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:39.293Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:41.044Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).\nIn a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;\nParameter Distribution:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nI thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equation.\nSome of the paper's (and see also [this presentation](http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf)) choices for parameter distributions are surprising such as which is unlikely to resolve to be significantly less than 1, unless I'm mistaken.\nIt would also be fun to see if the distribution of resolutions to Drake's Equation derived using Metaculus-determined parameter distribution, would match the distribution produced by directly asking Metaculus how Drake's Equation will resolve. \nIn this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:44.374Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:46.142Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:48.240Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:51.888Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire. \nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's Democracy Index rating is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by Freedom House, and as \"repressed\" in the Index of Economic Freedom.\nIn recent years, particularly since [Russia made military incursions into Ukraine in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [annexed Crimea,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) a number ([1, ](https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2018/07/how-russia-could-test-nato-warns-former-us-army-europe-commander/149530/)[2, ](https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/18/is-russia-practicing-a-dry-run-for-an-invasion-of-belarus/)[3, ](https://jamestown.org/program/belarus-receives-alarming-signals-from-both-east-and-west/)[4, ](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ready-putins-invasion-belarus-russian-forces-are-gathering-664225)[5](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/19/fears-grow-russian-military-drills-in-belarus-are-moscows-next-crimea.html)) of observers have raised the possibility that Russia may in the near future invade or annex Belarus.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?\nThis question resolves positively if, before that date, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:53.776Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 380,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:55.696Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:57.395Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket exceeds $8. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves above $8 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:56:59.188Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:02.951Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 294,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:04.867Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:06.744Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:10.952Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:12.736Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human be born on another world?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:14.510Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2499-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:16.377Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:18.060Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:21.985Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 657,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:25.885Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:27.619Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:29.397Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:31.170Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-15T22:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:32.857Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T17:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:34:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:34.750Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:36.797Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The great recession of 2007-2009 was the longest lasting contraction in the US economy since 1929, [lasting 18 months, peak to trough](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). \nThe good news is that the banking systems are probably more resilient than a decade ago, when the crisis struck, due to improved capital and liquidity regulations. Moreover, we now have an improved familiarity with the policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves aimed at lowering interest and stimulating expenditure. \nHowever, with low policy rates, there is little room for monetary policy to manoeuvre in a recession without considerable creativity. Moreover, the fiscal policy outlook might be worrisome as well. Congress may have less room than it did during the Great Recession, with the country’s debt burden as a share of the overall economic output rising from [63 percent to 105 percent](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp), and the US deficit to GDP now being [4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007](US deficit to GDP is 4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007).\nIf the US goes into a recession before 2032, how many months will the economic contraction (from peak to trough) last?\nA recession is here taken to be a two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. The duration of the contraction is taken to be the number of months from peak to trough in economic performance, as defined by the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html) to be a combination of real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI). This question will be closed retroactively at the end of the second quarter of decline in real GDP.\nData on durations of historical contractions in the US economy may be found at the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).\nEdit: (20/02/19): if the US enters multiple recessions before 2032, this question will refer to the duration of the first one.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:45.219Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 584,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-12-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\nWhat the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the egg-laying flock that are in any cage-free category in June 2025, according to figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For the number of egg-laying hens that are in any cage-free category, we shall use the the estimated \"layer flock size\" of \"all cage-free layers\" for the month July ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/rj4304553?locale=en) in early August). For the total number of egg layers, we use the USDA estimate of the number layers producing table or market type eggs ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n?locale=en)).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:47.172Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).\nWill oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?\nThis question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:49.225Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:51.201Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:53.662Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:57:56.296Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:02.012Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 174,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:07.768Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:10:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch \"Manhattan project\" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. \nA [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the \"lead up\" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be \"on the runway\"?\nAs an assessment of that question, we ask here:\nWhen will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? \nWe'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:\n1-- \nIt has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and\n2-- \nIt is constituted so as to generate a single \"flagship\" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and\n3-- \nThere is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.\n\n\nSome fine print:\n--- \nQuestion will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.\n--- \nThe project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups.\n--- \nFunding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. \n--- \nNote that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)\n--- \nThere is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.\n--- \nResolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.\n--- \nIn the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:09.805Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-20T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:11.593Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 131,
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST) is an [bus-sized](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/JWST_people.jpg) telescope designed to replace the ageing [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). It is very cool.\nIn 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been [rescheduled many times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues). As of the first of March 2019, [NASA expects](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-completes-webb-telescope-review) to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.\nQuestion: When will the JWST be launched?\nThis resolves when the JWST is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the JWST reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) through [any other mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch). The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that JWST is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been called \"JWST\", has a 6.5 meters honeycomb mirror, and is put either to L2 or L3, counts as the JWST. However the final telescope needs to be sent in a single piece accounting for >90% of its mass, otherwise this resolves ambiguous.\n[This closed binary question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/613/will-the-james-webb-telescope-launch-prior-to-2020/) asked if the JWST would be launched before 2020. It closed in July 2018 at 1%.\n[This still open question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/) asks if the JWST will be a success, conditional on launching.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:13.710Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 233,
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- "publish_time": "2019-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-08-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:17.331Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:19.170Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178). \nSurface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nWhat will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as maximum change in global annual mean surface air, based on Land and Ocean Data, in degrees Celsius, in any year in the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive of both 2020 and 2023). This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:22.306Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The scientific definition of \"species\" is surprisingly complicated.\nAs this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:\nAt first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.\nFor the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41): \"a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature.\" \nEvolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physically different from us – due to natural selection, human-engineered tinkering or both – that they would be properly classified as a different species. This [Scientific American article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/) explores some of the key ideas behind this question.\nAnd of course, we might well kill ourselves off, replace ourselves with AIs, etc.\nHow many years from now will the last member of homo sapiens be born? \nWe'll consider the people the future creatures will succeed or fail to interbreed with as early 21st C humans, and this must be possible without technical intervention. The people must exist IRL, i.e. not be simulated beings, uploads, etc. As usual we contemplate beings in the same universe, branch of the wavefunction, etc., as the server running the copy of Metaculus the question sits on.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:24.197Z",
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- "numforecasts": 202,
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- "publish_time": "2018-11-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:28.376Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\n[According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tracker, as of the 28th of November, 2019, 1753 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains.\nWhen will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken \"ingredients\" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:30.179Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:33.936Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:58:38.128Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 373,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The difference between tenure-track (TT) and non-tenure track (NTT) percentages reveals how many more higher education teachers are accepted into financially demanding roles at their institutions. This highlights the ability of American institutions to support tenured professors in the future and hints at the institutions' own predictions for financial stability. [AAUP](https://www.aaup.org/report/annual-report-economic-status-profession-2019-20) surveys on the academic labor force and the economic health of professors are reported through [The Annual Report of the Economic Status of the Profession](https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/2019-20_ARES.pdf). In the 2019-2020 school year, the percentage of TT teaching staff at private, religious, and public universities from both sexes, was 20.0% while NTT teaching staff represented 27% of the total academic workforce. The difference therefore as -7% between the two.\nThis question asks: What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the resolve date. This question is a part of the Higher Education Series\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:01.317Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:03.293Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:06.537Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:08.343Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:43:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:10.171Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 169,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:12.372Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.\nBut how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.\nWe can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.\nIt is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? \nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:14.211Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:21.628Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-14T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:27.594Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n",
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- "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:31.830Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Why care\nEnergy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.\n[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation.\" \nWhen will an organization first report a yearly profit?\nThis question will resolve to a report from a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that indicates that a fusion company (private, public or governmental) turned a yearly profit.\nFor a company to be a fusion company, it must generate over 75% of its revenue from the sale of energy generated by nuclear fusion.\nRelated questions\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:36.149Z",
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- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:38.100Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers to begin paying full rent once more. \nAs of mid-May 2020, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. By the second quarter, it fell only 2% to [15%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/#:~:text=Office%20vacancy%20rates%20in%20the%20U.S.%202019%2D2020&text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20vacancy,the%20impact%20of%20the%20coronavirus.).\nIn May, the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a [National Association of Realtors survey from May 2020](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n[Recent data](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit-2020-consensus-forecast-12-10-2020.pdf) from November through December, released from the National Association of Realtors Survey, indicates that office vacancy rates will fall 3% heading into 2021, while retail vacancy rates will continue to increase to 11%. Industrial and multi-family vacancy rates are predicted to stay level at 5% and 6% respectively, while hotels experience a 2% drop.\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:39.964Z",
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- {
- "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:43.647Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.\nWill there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?\nThis question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\nEarthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:45.442Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more.\nThese thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. \n[Haiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti) is a country located on the island of Hispaniola, east of Cuba in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean Sea. It occupies the western three-eighths of the island, which it shares with the Dominican Republic. Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) in size and has an estimated 10.8 million people, making it the most populous country in the Caribbean Community and the second-most populous country in the Caribbean as a whole.\nDespite having a viable tourist industry, Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and the poorest in the Americas region, with poverty, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of health care and lack of education cited as the main causes. Trade declined dramatically after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent outbreak of cholera. Haiti ranked 145 of 182 countries in the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index, with 57.3% of the population being deprived in at least three of the HDI's poverty measures. [You can view some historical, economic and cultural data about Haiti here.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html)\nHaiti is the last World Bank low income country in the Americas, with a [GNI per capita of only $760 as of 2017.](https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=XM-HT) [According to the CIA World Factbook, Haiti ranks 213th in the world (of 228 countries and territories) in terms of GDP per capita.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html#HA)\nThis question asks: When will Haiti become a World Bank upper middle-income country?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before Haiti is designated an upper middle-income country, or if Haiti ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated upper middle-income by the World Bank.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:47.512Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 105,
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- "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1139/will-a-scientific-mission-to-the-outer-solar-system-be-assigned-to-the-falcon-heavy-by-mid-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "NASA, sometimes in cooperation with other countries, launches missions to space to study planets, stars and other celestial bodies. In order to do this, scientists and engineers have to account for factors, such as money and weight.\nTo make a decent mission and to gather as much data as possible, a probe that NASA could send has to carry with it many scientific instruments. The more instruments there are, the heavier the probe is (and more expensive). The heavier the probe is, the more powerful the rocket to send it has to be. The more powerful the rocket is, the more expensive the mission is. Money and weight are the two main factors to make a mission to space.\nThese days, NASA's budget is more and more reduced. It was 0.47% of the federal budget in 2017 whereas it could reach 4.41% during the Apollo era. Only a few missions can be made, and most of them concern the study of Earth, stars, or the internal solar system. Even though some missions plan to study Jupiter, its moons, and sometimes Saturn, not a single mission, not even as a project, is planified to study space beyond the orbit of Saturn at the moment. The last and only mission that studied Uranus and Neptune was Voyager 2 and New Horizons studied Pluto for a few hours after a 9 years journey through space.\nBut earlier this year, the Falcon Heavy was launched for the first time. SpaceX's new heavy launcher, and current most powerful rocket is capable of launching 63,800 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and 3,500 kg to Pluto, for a cost of 150M $, whereas the Delta IV heavy, the previous most powerful rocket, could only launch 28 790 kg to LEO for a cost of 400M $. The price of the kg in space is almost 6 times lower for the Falcon Heavy than the Delta IV Heavy (2351 $/KG → FH -- 13893 $/KG → D4H).\nTherefore, the Falcon Heavy offers to NASA and other agencies the possibility to multiply its capacities of studying space and for a lower cost.\nWill a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy within the next 5 years? \nresolves positive if by end of July 2023, a credible media or other announcement indicates that a contract has been signed with SpaceX as one party, for the purpose of a scientific payload being launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket. \"Scientific payload\" here shall be taken to be a payload paid for by a nonprofit or government agency with scientific but not military, communication, etc. application.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:49.612Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
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- "numforecasts": 349,
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- "publish_time": "2018-07-25T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-07-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T12:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:52.302Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:54.474Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 195,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4720/what-will-the-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-rate-be-in-q1-of-2021-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.\nAs of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. \nLast month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:01:59.626Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:02.984Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n",
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- "close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:10.710Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:12.541Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 110,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-03T00:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When a [massive solar storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) hit the earth in 1859, it produced auroras bright enough to wake Colorado miners and threw sparks off of telegraph wires. Were such a storm to strike today, however, the consequences to our technology-dependent society [would be catastrophic](http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-1859-solar-storm-telegraph-scientists-2016-9). Such storms are the subject of several other questions, particularly [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/519/will-evidence-emerge-for-solar-superflares/) regarding the frequency of such storms and [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/168/will-the-us-develop-a-new-satellite-for-early-warning-of-severe-geomagnetic-storms/) regarding the construction of a satellite warning system.\nTwo Harvard University professors, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb, recently [estimate the losses](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.05348.pdf) at $10 trillion, with a years-long recovery. In contrast to that cost, which is approximately [50 times the cost of NASA's initial efforts to send humans to the moon](https://christopherrcooper.com/blog/apollo-program-cost-return-investment/). Given estimates upward of 1%/year of such a flare, this sort of prospective loss arguably calls for significant spending at risk mitigation.\nBeyond warnings or damage minimization, the above paper proposes a somewhat more radical astronomical protection plan. A loop of copper wire with a diameter similar to the Earth's, they say, powered by one terawatt, could create a sufficient magnetic field so as to deflect the energy of a solar storm enough to protect the planet's technology. Placed at the [Lagrange point L1](https://www.space.com/30302-lagrange-points.html), the loop would cost about $100 billion to construct, Lingam and Loeb estimate. (As a fun side-beneit, they investigate how we might look for signs of such shields built by other civilizations out there.)\nWill anyone take this idea seriously? We'll ask the following:\nBy 2021, will a chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?\nThis question will resolve positively given a credible report that a grant, contract, budget line, or some similar allocation of funding equalling $100K or more has been made toward further study of, or designs for, an in-orbit Earth protecting magnetic deflection system. Effective cost of researcher or faculty time does not count, and the description of the allocation must somewhere directly reference Lingam and Loeb.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2118-10-15T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:21.852Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:23.623Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 113,
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:26.272Z",
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- "numforecasts": 28,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?\nThis will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.\nIf the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:28.433Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:32.535Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
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- "title": "Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The synthetic biology industry has boomed over the last twenty years. Presaged by Michael Crichton's 1990 novel Jurassic Park, serious discussion has begun as to whether it is possible (or advisable) to revive extinct species for which a sequenced genome can be recovered. \n[Pet cloning services](http://investors.dna.com/2015-10-13-Intrexon-Subsidiary-ViaGen-Pets-Announces-Successful-Delivery-of-Healthy-Kittens) and [fully-synthetic organisms](http://www.jcvi.org/cms/press/press-releases/full-text/article/first-self-replicating-synthetic-bacterial-cell-constructed-by-j-craig-venter-institute-researcher/home/), once the domain of science fiction, are now a reality. The dinosaurs of Michael Chrichton's imagination may be a longshot, but due to the preservation-friendly climate of their natural habitat, the woolly mammoth appears to be a strong candidate for [\"de-extinction\"](https://www.amazon.com/How-Clone-Mammoth-Science-Extinction-ebook/dp/B00QMV6S6Q?ie=UTF8&btkr=1&redirect=true&ref_=dp-kindle-redirect): there have been dozens of documented findings of [intact frozen mammoths](http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/05/mammoths/mueller-text), dating back as early as 1700. Efforts thus far have yielded many news stories but [little in the way of demonstrable success](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-16068581). However, some recent advances in genetic engineering tools like CRISPR/Cas9 have allowed for some intermediate progress; one group reported that they had [successfully cloned woolly mammoth genes into a modern-day elephant](http://www.popsci.com/woolly-mammoth-dna-brought-life-elephant-cells).\nStudies like these seem to be [bolstering confidence](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/247402?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Sharebar&utm_campaign=Sumome_share) in the scientific and business communities, but the obstacles lying before them are far greater than simply research or money. The human capability to revive a long-dead species has moral implications that have just barely been explored: do we have a right to bring back such species? Or even a duty, considering that homo sapiens probably cause many of them to go extinct? These become particularly poignant when considering bringing back a species such as [neanderthals](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12886.html).\nOn a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?\nResolution is positive if a mammal, reptile, or avian species extinct for over 1,000 years is full reconstructed in one or more living examples of age at least 3 months from birth.\n",
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- "close_time": "2018-06-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. \nThis questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?\nThe total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:37.990Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity.\nGiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated.\nThis question asks: \nWhen will GiveWell's list of top charities first contain a charity which was founded by someone who received either training or a grant from Charity Entrepreneurship?\nResolution will be according to the GiveWell website, and/or credible media reporting. If GiveWell decides to no longer produce a list of \"top charities\", this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:39.774Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14. Performance results reported by e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, or blog articles by reputable AI labs may also be consulted.\nPerformance results must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14 to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:41.685Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:44.071Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 257,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:48.003Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 32,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:49.894Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:51.816Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:53.682Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:55.636Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:02:57.451Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?\nIt is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?\nData for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:01.483Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 293,
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- "publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:05.088Z",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-04-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\nA paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\nIn machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\nThe photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \nWhile several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).\nThis question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:06.870Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:10.450Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2022-2024 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:12.425Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 123,
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:14.263Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:16.080Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 53,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.\nIt is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?\nIn order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:18.008Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 117,
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- "publish_time": "2018-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will commercial supersonic flight return?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:19.886Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 282,
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- "publish_time": "2018-06-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nAlphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/). \nIn case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class A (ticker $GOOGL).\nPrices are are to be adjusted from Q4 2026 prices to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn case Alphabet Inc. is no longer a publicly traded company on 2026-12-14, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:24.079Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 227,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T18:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-11T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:25.902Z",
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- "numforecasts": 167,
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- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Balloons to the edge of space – when?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home.\nBallooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace)\nBalloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures.\nWhen will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:27.812Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-02-19T20:11:55Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-15T20:11:57Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T20:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4036/what-will-chinas-unemployment-rate-be-for-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "During the last recession, China launched [an aggressive stimulus and credit expansion package](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/china-credit-expansion-unintended-consequences) which [kept the unemployment rate below 4.3%](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate) and reduced it over the following eighteen months. However, in the first two months of the nCov-19 pandemic, 5 million Chinese workers [have lost their jobs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/china-economy-millions-lose-their-jobs-as-unemployment-spikes.html), many areas of the country remain in lockdown, and exports [have dropped by 17.2%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/china-s-jan-feb-exports-fall-17-2-y-y-in-dollars-est-16-2).\nHow successfully (or unsuccessfully) and how quickly will China manage this crisis?\nThe question asks: what will China's official unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?\nThe question will resolve as China's Q1 2021 unemployment rate per [CEIC Data](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate), as soon as it becomes available.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:29.659Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised.\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems.\nAs of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. \nHowever, there is optimism that a significant reduction in cost to LEO could be achieved in the near future. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claims that the company's Starship and Super Heavy launch system, currently in development, could eventually achieve a cost per kilogram to LEO of as little as $10: \n[Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 & 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, what will be the lowest cost, in inflation-adjusted dollars, to deliver a kilogram of mass to low Earth orbit (or beyond; suborbital flights are excluded) using any system that has actually completed at least one successful delivery at the stated price?\nInflation adjustment should be completed using a consumer price index method, with January 2020 taken as the reference month.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:31.627Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-ref_query?bibcode=2016AJ....151...22B&refs=CITATIONS&db_key=AST) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M) among the most distant members of the Kuipier Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found. \nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nIt thus seems timely to release this fifth update to our original, now long-closed, [Planet Nine question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/109/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-in-2016/). Specifically: \nWill the detection (by direct optical observation) of a new Solar System planet occur by July 1, 2021?\nFor this question to resolve as \"Yes\", the new Solar System planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:35.084Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-22T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T10:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:37.204Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989.\nWill three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?\nThis question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the [research.un.org website](https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/) on 1 January 2022.\nThis question concerns the number of unique resolutions vetoed, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution '[S/2019/961](https://undocs.org/en/S/2019/961)' was vetoed by [both Russia and China](https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8697), but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.\nIn the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:39.218Z",
- "options": [
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T13:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities.\nOn February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported,\nOne of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.\nThis question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (>10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:42.548Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).\nThe question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? \nThis question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).\nFurther details: \n--- \nThe date for resolving is the one where this goal was reached, not the reporting date. For the purpose of this question, whole genome sequencing and whole-genome microarray technology count\n--- \nBy citizens, we mean citizens of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong\n--- \nGenomes from monozygotic (identical) twins count as multiple different genomes for the purpose of this question\nGenotyping only counts if it is both broad (samples widely in the genome), and deep (samples many loci, say >500k). \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:44.421Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will US income inequality increase by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the start of 2019, in a [blogpost](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/01/what-happened-to-90s-environmentalism/) entitled \"Whatever happened to 90s environmentalism?\", Scott Alexander wrote:\nImagine that twenty years from now, nobody cares or talks about global warming. It hasn’t been debunked. It’s still happening. People just stopped considering it interesting. Every so often some webzine or VR-holozine or whatever will publish a “Whatever Happened To Global Warming” story, and you’ll hear that global temperatures are up X degrees centigrade since 2000 and that explains Y percent of recent devastating hurricanes. Then everyone will go back to worrying about Robo-Trump or Mecha-Putin or whatever.\nIf this sounds absurd, I think it’s no weirder than what’s happened to 90s environmentalism and the issues it cared about.\nThis question is about the extent to which interest in climate change, as measured by Google Trends, will have changed by 2025. It asks:\nLet the average monthly value of this [Google Trends index of climate concern](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zAtvopkcsM1rtdGx3RhlXq521wpFc5EvnJxyqar_kPc/edit?usp=sharing) for the first six months of 2025 be F, and the monthly value for June 2020 be P. \nWhat will be the value of F/P?\nThe index is the sum of the search interest in the following 10 terms according to Google Trends, over the time-window: 2004-2025-07-01, normalised for climate change:\n1--climate change \n2--global warming \n3--greenhouse gas \n4--greenhouse effect \n5--fossil fuels \n6--carbon dioxide \n7--sea level rise \n8--emissions \n9--renewable energy \n10-climate science \nThe search terms used to generate the data are:\n---[One](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,global%20warming,greenhouse%20gas,greenhouse%20effect,fossil%20fuels) \n---[Two](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,carbon%20dioxide,sea%20level%20rise,emissions,renewable%20energy) \n---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,climate%20science) \nThe normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:48.144Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T22:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:53.608Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\nThis question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:55.290Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:57.060Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-11-27T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:03:58.788Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:00.707Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 172,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:04.227Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 74,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:06.025Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.\nAmong the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.\nThat being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).\nIn order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and potentially cracking RSA keys, RSA Laboratories put forward their [RSA Factoring Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge) in 1991. Though the challenges officially ended in 2007, they’re still used as a common benchmark for factoring to this day. The largest number factored so far, [RSA-240](https://lists.gforge.inria.fr/pipermail/cado-nfs-discuss/2019-December/001139.html), was publicized only last December. The full list of numbers, including all known factorizations, can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers).\nWhen will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or another polynomial-time integer factorization algorithm) be used to factor one of the previously unfactored RSA numbers for the first time?\nResolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-20T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\nQuestion: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? \nThe question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.\nIt will resolve as negative if:\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:09.952Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\nRecent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\nHere is the question:\nWill chess be weakly solved by 2035? \nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:11.855Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the student loan debt bubble \"pop\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. \n[CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school \"with a significant amount of loans\" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's \"trillion\" with a \"T\". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/)\nIn November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880):\nThe average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50 years. \nMany independent financial analysts believe this situation is untenable.\nIn April 2017, a Financial Times analyst [observed](https://www.ft.com/content/a272ee4c-1b83-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f) that \"In an eerie echo of the housing crisis, debt is already flowing out of the private sector, and into the public.\"\nBillionaire Mark Cuban has said [straight up](https://www.inc.com/mark-cuban/video-student-loans-bubble.html): \"I think the student loan bubble is going to burst.\"\nClearly, some change is due. But when exactly will this bubble \"burst\"? We'll define this popping as a jump in the student load default rate. Those rates are tabulated various places, but depend a lot on the timescale. For example official [Federal student loan default rates](https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/schooltyperates.pdf) define a 3-year rate, which is at 10.8% for fiscal year 2015, by \nA cohort default rate is the percentage of a school's borrowers who enter repayment on certain Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) Program or William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Loan) Program loans during a particular federal fiscal year (FY), October 1 to September 30, and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year.\nA [longer-term study](https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought/) looks at default rates for 1996 and 2004 cohorts and finds that of those who took out loans, 18.2 and 27.2%, respectively, had defaulted 12 years later.\nWe'll ask: \nIn what year (if ever) will the 3-year rate, as defined above, reach 20% OR the 12 year rate reach 40%? \nIn each case the resolution date is defined by the middle of the year at the end of the interval in question. Resolution is by govt. or private numbers comparable in methodology and results to the above two reports.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:13.678Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 156,
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-08-31T07:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:15.576Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 23,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-08T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-05T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a universal flu vaccine be available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains.\nFor at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highly effective universal flu vaccine combined with a strong vaccination campaign could lead to the flu being virtually eliminated in some places, as with other diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. However, even a moderately effective universal flu vaccine might substantially increase vaccination coverage and reduce flu severity.\nWhen will a universal flu vaccine be available?\n---To be considered available, a vaccine must be approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicine Agency. The resolution date is the first date of approval. \n---A universal flu vaccine must meet one of the following conditions.\n------The vaccine is effective for multiple years. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses that it may be received less than once per year. \n------The vaccine is effective against unseen strains. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses the use of a version of the vaccine that was formulated without using the WHO's current yearly recommended vaccine composition (or any similar yearly recommendation). \n---Beyond the above conditions, there are no specific requirements on effectiveness. \n---It is acceptable if the universal flu vaccine is recommended in conjunction with, and not as a replacement to, traditional flu vaccines. \n---Since even existing flu vaccines may provide some residual protection against the flu, the vaccine in question must be described or advertised as being universal, broad-spectrum, etc. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:17.495Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 69,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-11T03:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2090-01-11T03:46:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.\nIt seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:\nWhen will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? \nQuestion resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.\nResolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.\n(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)\n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:19.450Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized).\nA [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. \nA new [COVID-19 relief bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/what-is-in-the-bipartisan-coronavirus-relief-bill-unveiled-monday.html) came before Congress this Monday, December 14th, offering $908 billion dollars. \n“The package is broken into two bills: The $738 billion Bipartisan Emergency COVID Relief Act of 2020 includes funding for enhanced unemployment benefits, another round of small business loans, emergency food assistance and emergency rental relief, among many other provisions, according to a summary of the package. Meanwhile, the $160 billion Bipartisan State and Local Support and Small Business Protection Act of 2020 provides liability insurance for businesses and funding for state, local and tribal aid.”\nIn its [Personal Income and Outlays](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) reports, the BEA provides monthly, quarterly, and annual figures including total unemployment insurance transfers.\nHistorical data is provided on BEA's National Accounts [archive](https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/histChildLevels.cfm?HMI=7). As an example, the data from July 2020 is provided [here](https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/pi0720.pdf#page=7).\nA similar question for Q4 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/)\nWhat will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolves based on the latest BEA [Personal Income and Outlays report](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) as of the question resolution date, titled \"Unemployment insurance\", using the seasonally-adjusted annualized figure for 2021 Q1. As of the October 2020 release, this row is on line 26 of Table 1. If no BEA estimates have been released by the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:21.243Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 163,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:33:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. \nHow many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:23.416Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:26.913Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
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- "publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T21:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:50:34Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated questions:\n[Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:28.709Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). \nThe question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"currently undiscovered\" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.\nFor this question, a \"social media\" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:30.682Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:32.509Z",
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- "numforecasts": 77,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T23:04:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:34.403Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:36.139Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus)\nThere are already questions about the number of deaths that will be attributed to the disease before 2021, as well as the number of cases and estimated infections that will develop. However, there are some reasons why specific questions about ratios of these values will be useful:\n--- \nWhile dividing the median for deaths by the median for estimated infections may give a reasonable point estimate, it doesn't give all the info we want. With this question, we will be able to see the distribution of infection-mortality rates. This cannot be reliably inferred using the distributions for number of cases and number of deaths, because the variables are correlated.\n--- \nThe time-series graph provided by the question will show how predictions about infection-fatality rates change over time.\nResolution: The resolution for this question will be determined by directly dividing the number of fatalities by the total number of cases, using the resolution values given by the following two Metaculus questions:\n--- \nNumerator: [How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-before-2021/)\n--- \nDenominator: [How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/)\nThere may be more sophisticated ways of determining infection-fatality rate, but we would like to stay consistent with the other Metaculus questions.\nEdited 2020-03-06 to clarify that this is the infection-fatality ratio rather than the case-fatality ratio.\nEdited 2020-04-29 to clarify that this question resolves as the estimated number of deaths before 2021 divided by the estimated number of infections before 2021.\nEdited 2020-05-17 to change the denominator from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-infections-of-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-50k-1b-range/), to the [improved version of that question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:38.370Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1782,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3063/bitcoin-lightning-network-capacity-in-btc-on-2021-aug-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the [lightning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network) [network](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp). A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.\nAt 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by [bitcoinvisuals.com](https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity)?\nDifferent sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on [bitcoinvisuals.com](http://bitcoinvisuals.com) simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to [1ml.com](http://1ml.com), and then a third source if needed.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:40.320Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-25T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:42.163Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 264,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3110/will-the-mars-2020-helicopter-fly/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "NASA [is putting](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7489) a [small](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout#Design) (2 kg, 1 m) [helicopter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout) on the [Mars 2020 Rover](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_2020). It is very much a proof of concept, being designed for 5 short (3 min.) flights and only carrying a camera. But it opens the door to much more ambitious powered flight vehicles on Mars and elsewhere.\nQuestion: Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mounted on the Mars 2020 rover send back at least one picture taken while flying on Mars, conditional on a flight being attempted?\nResolution details:\n---The picture must be taken while the helicopter is flying under its own power on Mars. \n---The picture must make it back to earth, and be published by NASA. \n---This resolves negative if a flight is attempted, but no such picture is obtained. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no relevant flight is attempted before 2022. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:44.048Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-16T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-18T10:42:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:45.828Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "The End of NAFTA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).\nDuring his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.\nWe hence ask: \nwill the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? \nThis question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:47.743Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars.\nWhile beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the win in the presidential election in 2020, Medicare is still estimated to [run out of proper funding](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/health/medicare-and-medicaid/2012-05/The-Future-Of-Medicare.pdf) for all expected expenses by 2024. \nWith an aging population in the US, the amount of money dedicated to health insurance, especially during the period of time during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, will need to increase to fully cover the growing number of health expenses. Since 2017, the amount of money dedicated to Medicare has already increased by approximately $300 billion dollars.\nWhat percentage of the federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:55.026Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:54:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:57.199Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\nAnd you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.\nIf Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?\nIf the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:04:59.239Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-26T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \">\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:03.082Z",
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- "numforecasts": 72,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-30T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:06.918Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:08.981Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.\nApparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.\nThe Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.\nWhen will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?\n---This question may resolve if The Boring Company or its representative issues a statement that one of its TBMs is currently tunneling, or has tunneled, at a rate of at least 140 meters per day (even momentarily, e.g. 6 m in one hour). \n---This question may also resolve if some tunnel, at least 1 km long, is completed at a rate of at least 140 meters per day, from the moment that the TBM starts boring the earth at the entrance, to when it breaks through the exit. \n---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. \n---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:10.897Z",
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- "numforecasts": 113,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-06-22T05:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-06-22T05:51:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:14.255Z",
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- "numforecasts": 26,
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The catchphrase [\"I've fallen and I can't get up,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.\nResearchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.\nWhen will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:16.119Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2017-09-09T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \nAccording to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\nThe final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\nThe third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(18)30135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\nLarge-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\nSide effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\nOther researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \nWith the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?\nTo resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. \nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:21.853Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. \nEurope is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).\nGrowth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. \nProjections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.\nHow much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?\nThe definitive source for question resolution will be the annual \"[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)\" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:23.713Z",
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- {
- "title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:25.562Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 71,
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- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "All political parties eventually come to an end.\nMost U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940).)\nFor as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. \nBut this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [points out](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/the_republican_party_is_old_and_getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html): \nDemocrats have a substantial edge with voters under 35 while Republicans are more likely to be on the older side of middle age and septuagenarians. The beauty of the over-65 set is that they are reliable voters. The bad news about them is that they are not long for this Earth.\nFrom almost all accounts, younger voters--particularly [Millennials](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/376334-poll-dems-lead-gop-among-millennials-by-two-to-one-ratio) and [Gen Zers](http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/389016-parkland-and-the-political-coming-of-generation-z)--favor liberal/democratic causes in a big way. Once the Silent Generation dies off, and the Baby Boomers ride into the sunset, unless voters reallign, the GOP will be in the substantial minority. \nHowever, success is not guaranteed for the Democrats. At least in Europe, many of the traditional social democratic or socialist partiest were supplanted or are at least threatened to be overtaken by new (often populist) movements and parties. Examples include (La République) En Marche ! in France, Podemos in Spain, the Five Star Movement in Italy or Syriza in Greece\nFor how long will both Democratic and Republican parties exist? Resolution is triggered when:\n--- \nOne of the two parties formally dissolves or is converted into another party of another name, or\n--- \nEither there are no sitting Republican US congresspeople or no sitting Democratic US congresspeople, or\n--- \nA US presidential election occurs in which the set of candidates receiving 5% or more of the popular votes does not contain both a Democrat and a Republican.\nNote that this question is also in a sense a question on the dissolution of the American political system.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:33.917Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2075-11-15T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\nWill MEND be independently replicated by 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\nIn light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?\n\nResolution\n----------\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n1-- \nIf the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n2-- \nIf the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n3-- \nIn the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\nFurther reading\n---------------\n\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n--- \nZak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n--- \nRobine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).\n",
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- {
- "title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:40.265Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 72,
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- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)\nOver the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. \nThis question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:42.120Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:44.557Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 111,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:46.418Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:48.486Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:50.297Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:52.453Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 61,
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:05:58.386Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\nWill Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? \nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:02.579Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n",
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- {
- "title": "Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n",
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- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:08.206Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-14T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-04-02T22:14:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:10.139Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:15.561Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:19.261Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:21.585Z",
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- "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
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- "title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .\nIn the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.\nNaive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.\nThe best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.\nIn 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?\n",
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- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- {
- "title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:29.115Z",
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- {
- "title": "When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar Cycle 25 is predicted to begin sometime before the end of 2020. The beginning of the solar cycle occurs during the solar minimum, which is characterized by low activity and few sunspots. \nA variety of observations indicate that during solar minima, the Sun experiences long-lived coronal holes, which are “vast regions in the Sun’s atmosphere where the Sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.” Solar wind emanating from coronal holes can cause space weather effects around Earth as the wind interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While the typical energy density of the solar wind is substantially less than that of atmospheric winds on earth, its effects are manifested by auroral displays near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field is weakest. \nDuring solar minimum, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites), which can lead to an increased amount of “space junk” in Earth’s atmosphere and higher collision rates for satellites in orbit. The period surrounding solar minimum is also associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication.\nWhen will Solar Cycle 25’s minima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:31.179Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:21:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:34.962Z",
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- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: \"Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.\"\nThe [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:\nLogic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. \nAnd an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).\nOn the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: \"Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.\"\nSo are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the \"deployed\": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)\n",
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5225/relaxation-of-maximum-group-size-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.\nThe Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [\"any longer than we have to\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?\nThat is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?\nThe question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.\nThe question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:40.891Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:42.712Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:47.002Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:48.968Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:53.626Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:55.598Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nThere is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies [reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/6/Egg-sexing-close-to-market-301797E/). \nWhen will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??\nResolution\nThis resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.\nFor the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if: \n1-- \ntechniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and\n2-- \nat least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.\nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:06:57.662Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T01:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:00.008Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 278,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:02.696Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:06.849Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.\nThis question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:08.820Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2074-10-10T09:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-10-10T09:10:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:10.919Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-06-01T04:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:14.847Z",
- "options": [
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(tennis)) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\nWill Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:18.107Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 77,
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:20.049Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:21.999Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first human head transplant occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.\nMuch more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.\nRecently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.\nThe body donor, meanwhile, will likely be a someone who died of severe head trauma but whose body was left unscathed. The researchers claim to have been perfecting the technique on mice, a dog, a monkey, and, recently, a human cadaver. Originally, they predicted a fall 2017 transplant but now [just say it is “imminent.”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/italian-doctor-says-worlds-first-human-head-transplant-imminent/847288001/).\nWhen will will a human head transplant operation be performed\nResolution is positive regardless of the survival of the patient after the operation. Positive resolution requires the patient who provides the donor head to be alive right before the procedure: the patient providing the donor head should not be declared legally dead 48 hours or more before the transplant occurs. Brain-only transplants do not count towards positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:23.718Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 29,
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-09T22:01:59.305000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-09T19:52:20.028000Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:25.446Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 93,
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- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:27.389Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:29.377Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:31.283Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-10-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:36.550Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/). \nThese organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.\nWhat is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?\nIf no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously.\nIf only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nOtherwise, this resolves at the value (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at Alcor while both organisations were active) / (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at the Cryonics Institute while both organisations were active) at the start of 2200.\n\"Active\" means that the organisation is currently officially offering cryopreservation to its members and storing them at its own facilities.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:38.335Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n",
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- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:42.327Z",
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- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
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- "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
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- "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
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- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:50.423Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z",
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- {
- "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:52.248Z",
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- "numforecasts": 97,
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:54.151Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:07:57.544Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-01T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\nAccording to the BBC: \nIt emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\nThe researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\nThe virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\nThey found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\nCurrent flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.\n",
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- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination.\nAlcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html):\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nSo, what’s your preference? Better pictures, or better biological viability? The neuroscientists want the pictures. Alcor has traditionally worked to achieve better biological viability.\n[...] The cryobiological experts who advise Alcor favor the use of Alcor’s current protocol (or we would have changed it).\nThe Brain Preservation Foundation, which awarded the $80,000 prize for ASC, is more hopeful, claiming that these better pictures make the brain more suitable for eventual resurrection via scanning and uploading.\nWhat will the value (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved using fixatives, who are revived) / (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved without using fixatives, who are revived) be at the start of 2200?\nThis counts only the people who are cryopreserved while fixatives are available, so that the question measures only the effect from using fixatives, and not general improvement in cryonics between 1967 and whenever fixatives become available, and from later techniques which would supersede fixatives. \n\"Available\" means that a cryonics organisation officially offers cryopreservation using fixatives to its members.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\nIf nobody is revived from cryopreservation before 2200, or nobody is cryopreserved using fixatives, then this resolves ambiguously. If the only people revived are those who were preserved using fixatives, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:01.047Z",
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- {
- "title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nDollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nCurrently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.\nHow much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017, $4b in 2018, $4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:02.836Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).\nWill Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:04.873Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 43,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-01T20:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T19:28:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [239 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](http://(https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler)). \nHow many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending at latest in 2030, on December 1st, 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:06.853Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-30T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:09.003Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related questions: \n---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) \n---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) \n---[When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) \nIn 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma%27s_Revenge_(video_game)).\nAs of 2021 Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43 791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. However, it requires billions of frames or years of game play to achieve that performance.\nI attempted to calibrate this question by playing the game for 15 min. In this time I managed to score a maximum of 6700 points. [You can test the game on your own here.](https://www.retrogames.cz/play_124-Atari2600.php?language=EN)\nAn AI system which is able to rapidly learn in dynamic environments could have a great impact on the world's economy.\nWhen will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?\nThis question will resolve when a reputable source reports that an AI system managed to score strictly more than 6000 points at least once within the first 30 minutes of the game play (no more than 108 000 frames). The system must have no previous direct access to the Montezuma's Revenge game, but it may be pretrained in other ways.\nWith regard to pretraining, the question allows:\n---unlimited training on anything that is unrelated to the game \n---unlimited training on all other Atari games \n---having videos and/or screenshots of the Montezuma's Revenge game in the training set as long as they unambiguously consist of less than 3% of the training set \n---access to any text resources related to the game including tutorials etc. \nBesides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit.\nIn general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:11.032Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 40,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:12.909Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 175,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:18.286Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 109,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:20.119Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&singleton=true&cruz_id=rmont), UCSC\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \nDensity Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_(mathematician)) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \nWill the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? \nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:21.981Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 141,
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- "publish_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:24.317Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:25.994Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:27.877Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).\nWhen will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?\nResolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.\nThe question resolves as \">2040\" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:29.643Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Robocup Challenge",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? \nPositive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:31.843Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 303,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:45:01Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:45:08Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:33.767Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption [(McMichael et al, 2007)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17868818). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming [might be causing substantial suffering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating).\nOverfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude [(Le Pape et al. 2017)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5547646/). Restoring and preserving marine life is [one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/envision2030-goal14.html). However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. [In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world](https://www.aiddata.org/publications/listening-to-leaders-2018), restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years ([Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-01-09-aligning-fisheries-aid-with-international-development-targets-and-goals.html)).\nSeveral clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/), the Canadian-based [SeaFuture](http://seafuturebio.com/) and the Singporean-based [Shiok Meats](https://shiokmeats.com/).\nAn IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean fish company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms \"clean fish\" or \"clean meat company\" producing \"fish\", where \"clean meat\" may be interchanged with \"cell-based\", \"in vitro\", \"cultivated\", or \"cultured\", and \"fish\" with any particular fish (e.g. \"clean tuna\"). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:35.740Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:37.545Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:39.740Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(19)30231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.\nThe [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.\nAs of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).\nThis question asks: When will the first study be published that includes at least 1,000,000 persons of African descent in a GWAS?\nFor the purposes of this question:\n--- \nPublished studies mean research papers that are open to public readership, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. This includes preprints (e.g. biorXiv), and other open science documents.\n--- \nWhole exome sequencing, whole genome sequencing, and genome-wide genotyping arrays count.\n--- \nAfrican American and Afro-Caribbean and other majority African ancestry populations are counted as \"African\" though they are part non-African ancestry. The data are classified this way in studies.\n--- \nThe question will resolve as >2040 if no such study is published before December 31, 2040.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:41.540Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. \nBut this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder:\nWhen will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?\nWill resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:08:43.586Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will the 10,000th human reach space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1556/will-there-be-extraordinary-or-premature-federal-elections-held-in-germany-before-their-next-election-cycle/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, [Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46016377).\nThe latter is particularly interesting since Merkel herself always insisted on the Chancellor also holding the office of respective party chairman, a practise she criticised her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, for abandoning in light of rising criticism regarding his reform plans.\nHer current prospective successors as chairmen of the CDU are:\n---[Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer](https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-ally-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-urges-new-era-in-german-politics/a-46196445), the unofficial favourite, \n---[Friedrich Merz](https://www.dw.com/en/friedrich-merz-makes-pitch-to-lead-cdu-after-angela-merkel/a-46108295), who had left politics a decade ago, and \n---[Jens Spahn](https://www.jens-spahn.de/neustart_fuer_die_cdu), the current Minister of Health. \nThere are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office prematurely for a successor to gain valuable experience as a chancellor. But it is doubtful if the junior partner in the coalition, the SPD, would support such a move, preferring new elections instead. Similarly the new chairman may obstruct Merkel in parliament to raise their profile for the next federal elections, possibly to the extent of triggering premature federal elections.\nThus we ask: Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?\nResolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-10-25T10:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\nIt is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.\nA world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called \"Spanish Flu.\" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.\nAlso unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.\nSo here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?\nWill there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? \n",
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- {
- "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
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- "title": "When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.\nHis statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that \"It's always 'the end of the year.'\"\nThe company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the \"feather\" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.\nWhen will SpaceShip Two's first passenger flight occur?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news outlet or corporate press release reports that SpaceShip Two crossed the Karman line into space carrying at least one paying non-pilot passenger, and safely returned to the ground.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.\nPoker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. \nAn example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead not only to substandard play that is exploited by opponents, but also to penalties and even potential disqualification.\nAnd so we ask: when will a computer or robotic player become skilled enough at both the theoretical game and the physical game of poker to win a significant Texas HoldEm competition against humans in live play?\n\nDefinition of “significant competition”:\n----------------------------------------\n\nA Texas HoldEm tournament or cash game in which:\n---more than 300 hands are played \n---robotic and human players obey the same rules, without special accommodations for the perceptual or motor skills of the robotic player (including complying with verbal direction from the dealer and staff) \n---competitors include at least one human member of the top 200 of the [Hendon Mob All Time Money List](http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/all-time-money-list/) (at the time of play) \n---the winner (best-outcome player) is awarded more than $10,000 US (whether that money is awarded to the robot itself or to its owners or developers), with the same payouts made to robotic and human players. \nThere are a wide variety of ways in which a competition like this could come about, and the intent is to cast a wide net. Two contrasting examples, which would both count for positive resolution:\n1--A “Deep Blue vs. Kasparov”-style challenge, in which the whole point of the competition is to pit human against machine. \n2--Harold takes a week off from his middle-management desk job, walks into the Rio All-Suites Hotel in Las Vegas, and plunks down $10,000 in cash for a seat in the World Series of Poker Main Event, because (since the recent passage of Robotic Personhood legislation) no one can tell him that he can’t, and after all it’s his money. \n\nClarifications and fine print:\n------------------------------\n\n---The robot player must finish #1 in the event. In the case of a cash game, this means netting the most money by the end. In the case of a tournament, this means playing until a robot is the only one left. \n---The win must be for the entire event as scheduled. For example, if a televised cash-game event is scheduled to span multiple days, a win over the course of a single day does not suffice. If the event is a single-elimination heads-up tournament, it does not suffice to win the semi-final game, even if that guarantees a purse greater than $10,000 US. \n---The robot need not literally sit in a chair at the poker table, but needs to be at the table taking up approximately the same portion of the perimeter that a human player would be allowed. \n--- \nThe rules must allow for the kinds of sensory modalities that would normally be legal for human players, but not for perceptual abilities that would correspond to cheating for humans. Examples: \n------Scanning cards in a way that allows reading through the back to see symbols on the front – disallowed. \n------Scanning the backs of cards to record their imperfections and distinguish between them in the future (i.e. “Every card is marked.”) - disallowed. \n------Scanning the faces of opponents to determine their emotional state – fair game. \n",
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- "numforecasts": 169,
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- "publish_time": "2019-03-04T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-03-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2220-02-28T20:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:08.783Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3432/philpapers-survey-mini-series-biological-ness-of-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological, as opposed to being social or unreal?\nSee [here for a discussion](https://philpeople.org/feed_items/49518082) of this question by Chalmers.\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:12.651Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 80,
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:14.478Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 26,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nBetween 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). \nMovements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers.\nHow many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:16.499Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 57,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:20:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
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- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:21.901Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\nedited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:25.860Z",
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- "probability": 0.5,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:27.825Z",
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- "probability": 0.68,
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
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- "probability": 0.99,
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- "numforecasts": 232,
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- "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services][https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm()](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm())\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:31.744Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 194,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-16T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics.\nSuppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively.\nWhat is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)?\n--- \nDrugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 \n--- \nNon-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:33.736Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-22T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2071-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:37.291Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 89,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. \nRecently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, \nAs the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.\nIn their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.\nThere are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course \"other.\" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:\nLuckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:\nWill the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? \nResolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:39.311Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are \"combination\" trucks such as tractor-trailers.\nAll of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one:\nWhen will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? \nFor positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the \"passenger seat\" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:41.559Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 348,
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- "publish_time": "2017-01-02T04:32:27Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:43.366Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:45.310Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:49.274Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. \nThere is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.\nThis, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).\nWill there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? \nThe answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 196,
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- "publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-08-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\nIf the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive. If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative. If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:09:56.770Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.\nSingapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.\nSingapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)\nThis question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?\nThis question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.\nIf no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:00.688Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-08T18:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-08T17:22:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:04.527Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 38,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:06.787Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 221,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:08.589Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 190,
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:10.614Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:12.682Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 50,
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- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
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- "title": "What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n--- \nThe US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).\n--- \nAny year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.\nDefine the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.\nWe divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and .\nWhat will be this depression's relative severity ?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:18.247Z",
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- "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. \nOne of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback.\nWill ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?\nWhether an event is a \"scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances\" will be resolved per the [\"I know it when I see it\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.\nEdit 2020-01-03: Replaced \"In the case of disagreement among Metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution\" with \"In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution\". \n",
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- {
- "title": "When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5744/date-when-150m-in-us-vaccinated-from-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:26.792Z",
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- "title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:28.614Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z"
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- "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. \nWith the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question.\nHow much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:36.311Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T23:47:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60.\nThis question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? \nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.\nResolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:38.204Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:42.528Z",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:44.451Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:48.213Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 30,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:51.871Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:55.592Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 38,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.\nSome cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)).\nWhen will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?\nPositive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and all races in the U.S.\n1--% 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer, \n2--% 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer, \n3--% 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer, \n4--% 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer, \n5--% 5-year survival rates for liver cancer, \n6--% 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer, \nas reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.\nHistorical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:10:57.490Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2037-02-10T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-06-19T21:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:03.254Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:05.362Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:07.312Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWill the US see mass price controls in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) \n---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) \n---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) \n---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) \n---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) \n---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) \n---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) \nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:09.272Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 195,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:11.105Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2572/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-able-to-cover-an-unexpected-400-expense-without-selling-something-or-borrowing-money-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the [Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm), which measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans.\nSince its first edition in 2013, the SHED has [included a question about whether or not the survey participant could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2017-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm)\nIn 2013, only 50% of survey participants said that they could do so. (See Figure 11 in the link above.) That number has slowly but steadily improved over time. In 2017, the most recent year for which figures are available as of January 16 2019, 59% of survey participants said they could do so.\nThis question asks: In the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking conducted for the year 2020, what percentage of Americans will say that they could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money?\nIn the event that this survey is renamed or discontinued but the same question is asked by another survey conducted by either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury, this question should remain active. If no such survey is conducted for the year 2020, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that the dollar value in question is changed by more than 5% in real terms (linked to 2019 dollars), this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:14.988Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2021-06-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:17.008Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:18.823Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict <18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if <18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:20.545Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-03T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:24.170Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:26.192Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 190,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:29.481Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters.\nPhysical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.\nI ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:31.211Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 32,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:33.234Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:35.121Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\nThis question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. \nIt resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:36.976Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-02-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [\"the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.\"](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.\nThis question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?\nIn 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).\nThis question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:40.842Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 33,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T04:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:42.645Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
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- "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:44.565Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will we have a new Pope?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:46.728Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 92,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.\nSENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. \nAs a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.\nHere's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year were $8,617,564.\nThis question asks: For the 2021 tax year, what figure will SENS Research Foundation report on their Form 990 as the value of their gross receipts, in US dollars?\nIn the event that no such filing is made (e.g. because SRF no longer exists or is no longer required to file this form), this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:48.784Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 86,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)\nThis resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:50.567Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
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- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 122,
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- "publish_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:52.644Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 433,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:11:58.165Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:00.778Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 5113,
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- "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-12T22:19:37Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-12T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:02.592Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nWill Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:04.502Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 408,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\nFor the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:06.344Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-31T21:26:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:08.370Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 231,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 419.13 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to an average of 428.79 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWhat will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020 to 2021 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the arithmetic mean of the \"annual mean carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration data from the Mauna Loa monitoring station\" in 2020 and 2021, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\nIf you wish to make a copy of the data, you can do this by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\". If you make useful additions to the dataset, feel free share the file in the comments.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:17.964Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:19.824Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. \nOren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.\nThis question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.\nIf the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:21.681Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).\nWhen will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?\nResolution\nTypes 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:26.011Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 95,
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nThis question asks:\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:27.992Z",
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- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:33.458Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 98,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n",
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- "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:16:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:41.764Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 101,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:43.610Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
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- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:45.483Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation.\nOverall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year.\nWhile deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years.\nHow many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?\nResolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:47.461Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:49.388Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.\nA [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat percentage of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:12:52.972Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
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- "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\nCIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that:\n\"The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.\"\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022.\nA question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/)\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T20:19:00Z"
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- "title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),\nThe marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.\nThe best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.\nThese two Metaculus questions are relevant:\n[Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/)\n[Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/)\nAlso see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)\nThis question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?\n",
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- "title": "How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nOrange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none of those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Orlando boasts a fleet of [5,375 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Orlando include Disney World, and all subsidiary parks and locations, Orlando International Airport, Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando VA Hospital, as well as the Orlando Science Center.\nThe Floridian government announced an [$8.6 million investment](https://www.flgov.com/2020/07/10/governor-ron-desantis-announces-next-steps-to-strengthen-floridas-electric-vehicle-infrastructure/) to strengthen their electric vehicle infrastructure within the state in July 2020 as part of their [Electric Vehicle Roadmap plan](https://www.fdacs.gov/Energy/Florida-Electric-Vehicle-Roadmap). They plan to expand charging stations by 50% across the most traveled roads and cities across Florida.\nHow many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Orlando, FL, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets will not be used to ascertain the resolution because they are not offered on the ChargePoint map. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
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- {
- "title": "At what point will at least ten technologies listed on \"The Rejuvenation Roadmap\" be released to the public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which\naims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.\nAs of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.\nIf ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if:\n---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). \n---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. \n---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:00.883Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:05.114Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. \nWith new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price.\nLow prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environment. Just in the United States, if everyone drove an electric vehicle, carbon emissions would [drop around 8.4%](https://insh.world/tech/what-if-all-cars-were-electric/#:~:text=Electric%20cars%20are%204%2Dtimes,would%20immediately%20drop%20by%208.4%25.). \nIt is possible to ascertain both producer dynamics in the market and competition levels, as well as consumer preferences with regards to EV criteria by looking at sales differences between models on the market. This could help greatly with understanding both the industry as it grows, and what EV factors influence greater adoption levels by consumers.\nWhat will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?\nResolution criteria for the most-sold models will come from the US Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) which provides an infographic with the number of sale deliveries of each light-duty, electric model by company. In 2019 the most sold vehicle was Tesla Model 3 with 154,840 vehicles sold in the US, followed by the Prius PHEV at 23,630. The price differential between these two models is great (over $11,000 starting price). In 2017, the Tesla Model S sold 26,500 which was followed by the Chevy Bolt with 23,297, a relatively small difference (with an average price difference of over $60,000). Here we can see that there is something about the Tesla Model 3, and/or the changing industry dynamics over time, that is greatly affecting adoption. We also see a dramatic reduction in price difference between the offerings, perhaps due to battery costs. If data is no longer provided, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nPrice data was taken using starting price levels for each model by the year it was produced using a google search. Prices are not adjusted for subsidies, and approximations serve well in an estimation of general price difference.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:07.002Z",
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:09.109Z",
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- "title": "In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIn 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)\n",
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- "title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_(volcano)#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.\n",
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- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) [(Wang et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasises diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is T5: Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer [(Raffel et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which achieves an average score 89.3, just below the human baseline of 89.8\nThe SuperGLUE leaderboard may be accessed [here](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on SuperGLUE up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on any number training set(s). Performance is given in a \"score\", which is the average of various performance metrics (see [Wang et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) for more details).\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:15.420Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for \"[lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628),\" i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop.\nIt has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly \"slotted in\" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask:\nWhen will a robot exist that is able to completely assemble a generic Lego set? \nFor positive resolution, the system must be able to assemble on demand multiple possible production Lego sets of 50+ pieces. The box and bags may be open but the robot must turn the pages on the direction set. Credible video or report must exist of this being done. The robot can be a prototype rather than production model. Resolution can also be achieved by the existence of a robot that would, as judged by a robotics expert, very clearly be capable of assembling a Lego set.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:17.243Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 299,
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- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:07:03Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T18:33:24Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Woke index in US elite media top?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.\nResolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?\n---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). \n---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. \n---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:19.328Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:22.710Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
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- "numforecasts": 97,
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- "publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:24.524Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6477/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-29-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nAccording to data from the recently launched [CoVariants.org](https://covariants.org/), the three variants in question — B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 — are [steadily increasing as a proportion of overall sequenced SARS-CoV-2 cases in the US](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). \nThe proportion of S:N501 among all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database in the US for the week of 2021-01-11 (2021-01-11 to 2021-01-17, inclusive) was [0.05, or 5%](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). Note that data for previous weeks are backfilled with sequences uploaded at later dates, so these percentages might change slightly over time — in other words, there is a lag between sequence collection and sequence upload.\nIn response to an increased incidence of S:N501 variants, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, further focus on contact tracing, and increase the rate of genomic sequencing.\nData sources and more information:\n---[Distribution of S:N501 per country](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) \n---[CoVariants](https://covariants.org/) \n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \n---[S gene dropout patterns in SARS-CoV-2 tests suggest spread of the H69del/V70del mutation in the US](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248814v1.full.pdf) \n---[Helix SARS-CoV-2 Viral Sequencing Trends](https://www.helix.com/pages/helix-covid-19-surveillance-dashboard) \nWhat will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of US S:N501 sequences among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing to the GISAID database between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive), as displayed on the \"Distribution of S:N501 per country\" plot on following website: [https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). This website pulls data from GISAID and makes it publicly accessible. This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-12.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:26.322Z",
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T19:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-12T18:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. \nWith thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).\nITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. \nThe project aims to:\n--- \nMomentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).\n--- \nProduce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)\nCurrently, it aims to produce its first [\"small star\" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).\nBy the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?\nFor the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2019-04-04T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5112/will-uber-and-lyft-both-be-operating-in-california-on-june-1st-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53853708),\nUber and Lyft have been granted a reprieve in a row over drivers' employment rights in California after a court granted an emergency injunction.\nThe ride-hailing firms had threatened to suspend operations over an earlier ruling that they must classify drivers as employees, not contractors. But the reprieve allows them to continue operating while the court considers their case for appeal.\nThe court's decision came just hours before Lyft was due to halt rides. The court has ordered Uber and Lyft to both submit their plans for hiring employees by early September, and oral arguments in the case are set for mid-October. Lyft was due to stop its services in California at 23:59 local time on Thursday (06:59 GMT on Friday). [...]\n[Uber and Lyft] have always argued their drivers are self-employed contractors.\nBut a California law that came into effect earlier this year, known as AB5, extended employee classification to workers in the \"gig economy\". The judge's ruling that the law applied to both Uber and Lyft means the firms need to provide drivers with extra benefits, such as unemployment protection.\nBoth companies filed an appeal to the judgement - and asked for a stay on its enforcement while the courts dealt with the appeal. Unless the stay was granted, both companies had 10 days to undertake what they saw as a significant overhaul of their business in California.\nThey both warned that they could be forced to pull services from the state at the end of the day on Thursday. [...]\nThere is a potential way out for the ride-sharing firms in the coming months.\nA ballot that will be put to vote in November, at the same time as the US presidential election, would grant Uber and Lyft an exemption from the law. It is known as proposition 22. \"Your voice can help,\" Lyft wrote in its blog post about suspending services.\n\"Prop 22, proposes the necessary changes to give drivers benefits and flexibility, while maintaining the rideshare model that helps you get where you need to go,\" it said.\nThis question resolves positively if both Uber and Lyft are operating in California on June 1st 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nFor the sake of this question, \"operating in California\" is taken to mean that, in at least one city, general consumers can receive Uber and Lyft rides.\nDetermination is made via credible media reports.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:30.641Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
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- "close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\nWe believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \nThe size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\nPlease note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:34.023Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will any country stop using cash currency?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. \nElectronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_(payment)) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).\nBut there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.\nThe currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [their ongoing trial to reduce coins](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-39639226), and [according to researchers](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/we-dont-take-cash-is-this-the-future-of-money.html?&qsearchterm=south%20korea%20to%20kill%20the%20coin) there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.\nWhen will the world see the first cashless society?\nResolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:37.876Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-06-29T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:39.715Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:43.544Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 21,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:45.300Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3434/philpapers-survey-mini-series-support-for-open-borders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:47.538Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:51.001Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\nGiven that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\nRight ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\nIf that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\nSo, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? \nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:56.387Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-18T02:28:09Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:13:58.261Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nNuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)).\nOn the other hand, \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). Also see: [Pure fusion weapon — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon).\n\nDefinition\n==========\n\n\"The fusion energy gain factor, usually expressed with the symbol Q, is the ratio of fusion power produced in a nuclear fusion reactor to the power required to maintain the plasma in steady state. The condition of Q = 1, when the power being released by the fusion reactions is equal to the required heating power, is referred to as breakeven, or in some sources, scientific breakeven.\nThe energy given off by the fusion reactions may be captured within the fuel, leading to self-heating. Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5. If Q increases past this point, increasing self-heating eventually removes the need for external heating. At this point the reaction becomes self-sustaining, a condition called ignition. Ignition corresponds to infinite Q, and is generally regarded as highly desirable for practical reactor designs.\"\n(source: [Fusion energy gain factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor))\n\nResolution criteria\n===================\n\nIf a relevant Wikipedia page states that a fusion reactor has reached ignition, and continues to state that for at least 10 months in a 12 months period, this question gets resolved with the date mentioned on Wikipedia. If Wikipedia isn't active anymore, a paper replicating the fusion reactor ignition will confirm the resolution as the date at which the first paper reported ignition.\n\nRelated questions\n=================\n\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:00.448Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods).\nHowever, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543).\nHow will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?\nThe question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) \nThis question will resolve specifically according to the \"% change 2019-2020\" for the row \"Total new STI diagnoses - total\". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs.\nIf this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:04.269Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T09:06:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-01T10:06:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\nIt is asked:Will a living human set their foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC?\nResolution is by credible media report. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 426,
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- "publish_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:09.810Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next human being walk on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.\nLess than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and at this writing no human being has walked on the Moon since.\nWhen will the next human being walk on the Moon? \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:13.772Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 321,
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- "publish_time": "2018-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-14T21:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:15.776Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
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- "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to \"phone home\" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html).\nHow we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/):\nThe sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.\nAlas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports:\nThe Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts’ electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. “These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,” she said. “Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.” The spacecrafts’ transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. “One day we’ll be looking for the signal and we won’t hear it anymore,” Dodd said.\nWhat will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including [this cool passage](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-probable-fate-of-Voyagers-1-2):\nAbout [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don’t know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers’ current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record), humanity’s message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants\nIn any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void? \nQuestion will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:19.473Z",
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- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:27.681Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:29.527Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 95,
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf):\nIn these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.\nIn this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?\nThe resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nRelated questions:\n---[Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/) \n---[World Population in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/) \n---[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](Will humans go extinct by 2100?) \n---[When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/) \n---[Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:31.442Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:33.302Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/208/to-the-stars-1-will-the-private-investment-in-laser-sail-extra-solar-travel-be-matched-by-a-comparable-amount-within-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Chemical rockets, while great for many purposes, will never get us far outside of the solar system. With the nearest stars parsecs away, reaching them in a human lifetime requires speeds of at least 10% the speed of light. As can be seen from the [rocket equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation), chemical rockets with exhaust speeds of a few km/s would require exponentially large mass to attain relativistic speeds of ~100,000 km/s. It's hopeless.\nUnless relativistic exhaust speeds can be obtained (difficult!), leaving the solar system will require external acceleration. A variety of schemes along these lines have been proposed over the years. \nFor example, the [\"starwisp\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starwisp) is a small nanowire mesh \"sail\" driven by the radiation pressure of reflected microwaves; the microwaves would be produced by a phased array of terrestrial or orbital dishes. \nRecently, a detailed study of laser-driven sails [was posted](http://www.deepspace.ucsb.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/A-Roadmap-to-Interstellar-Flight-15-h.pdf) proposing use of newly-developed ultra-high-reflectivity materials, and (now technically feasible) phased arrays of optical/IR lasers. High reflectivity allows acceleration without incineration; phased arrays allow a highly collimated beam without a laser of enormous diameter.\nWhile technically plausible, such systems would require large-scale investment in both R&D and deployment on the scale of at least a major NASA mission or large-scale particle physics project. \nThe possibility of this occurring just received a major boost with the announcement that entrepreneur and Philanthropist [Yuri Milner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Milner) has [committed $100 Million](http://breakthroughinitiatives.org) to a \"research and engineering program [that] will seek proof of concept for using light beam to propel gram-scale ‘nanocraft’ to 20% light speed.\" \nIn subsequent questions we will look at the probability of developing some of the necessary technologies to make a project like this a reality. Here gauge the overall prediction of success, as quantified by further investment joining Milner's, either before or after some of the results of the research it funds.\nBy April of 2021, will additional private or governmental sources provide a total commitment of funding to light-beam propulsion at least matching Milner's $100M?\nPrivate funding commitment would come in the form of a publicly-announced commitment like Milner's April 12 commitment; public commitment should come in the form of one or more allocated grants to institutions, or approved budget line-items at NASA or other government agencies.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:35.256Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 259,
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- "publish_time": "2016-04-12T16:00:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-02-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-15T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:38.765Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 295,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:40.594Z",
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- "numforecasts": 21,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:34:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:42.595Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:44.507Z",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:48.090Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 42,
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- "publish_time": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as \"midnight\" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of \"minutes\" (and [recently \"seconds\"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.\nIts original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.\nThis question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?\nThis resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement. \nIf resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to > 2100-01-01.\nIf either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:50.454Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:52.348Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:54.241Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T01:20:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\nThus we ask: \nWill we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n---three or more attacks over the span of one year, or \n---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years. \nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources \nand either of the following:\n---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or \n---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. \nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:56.152Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-25T11:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:57.992Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:14:59.739Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 367,
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- "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.\nWhen will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?\n---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:\n------It is a headset, i.e. a device that attaches to one's head and displays content in front of one's eyes, rather than e.g. a neural chip or a holodeck room. \n------It is virtual reality, i.e. in primary usage it completely or almost completely occludes the outside world, rather than laying an image over it as in augmented reality. \n------It must have 6 degrees of freedom (6DoF tracking); that is, it must track both the 3-dimensional direction that the user is facing, and the 3-dimensional location of the user. \n------It must either be bundled with hand controllers which are similarly 6DoF-tracked, or such compatible controllers must be sold separately (first-party, not from an aftermarket manufacturer). In particular, PSVR qualifies due to the PS Move controllers. 6DoF hand-tracking without physical controllers may qualify only if it is sufficiently precise that it can recognize individual finger motions accurately enough to play 2016 VR games, as judged by the admins. \n------Phone adapters, etc. do not count (even if they had 6DoF tracking); the device in question must be marketed primarily as a headset. \n------There are no further restrictions on price, feature set, method of tracking, tethered vs. standalone, or computing power. \n------For clarity, the following current headsets qualify: HTC Vive family, Oculus Rift family, Oculus Quest, Valve Index, PSVR, Windows MR. \n------The following headsets do not qualify: Oculus Go, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard/Daydream, Magic Leap One, Microsoft Hololens. \n---This question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 10 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. \n---Sales are not prorated over time; for example, if a report indicates that 5 million headsets were sold in 2027, and 20 million were sold in 2028, this question resolves as December 31, 2028. If a manufacturer says that 12 million headsets were sold in Q1-Q3, this question resolves as the end of Q3, or September 30. \n---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of \"VR headsets\" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources. \n---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:05.239Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n",
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- "title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
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- "resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. \nThe minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf). As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of extended low activity, similar to historical lapses such as the Dalton and Geissman minima. The onset of Solar Cycle 26 will either confirm existence of an extended period of low activity or, alternately, signal the close of what turns out to be merely a relatively brief suppression of cycle strength.\nDuring a run of weak cycles and feeble solar activity, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Over time, this will permit an increased amount of “space junk” to accumulate in low Earth orbit, leading to higher collision probabilities for satellites. Weak solar cycles are associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication, and in extreme cases, they can possibly influence Earth’s climate, as may have happened with the so-called [Maunder Minimum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) from 1645 to 1715, during which the Solar Cycle was suppressed and sunspots were rare.\nWhen will the next minimum after Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
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- "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:12.407Z",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
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- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n",
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- {
- "title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.\nOnce the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.\nThe deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands.\nWill EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?\nResolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.\n",
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- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n",
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- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2026. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:22.630Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger. \n[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo. \nWhat will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the lowest reported price per kilo in the month June, in 2022, of any plant-based beef (PBB) burger produced by Impossible Foods, and/or being marketed under the Impossible Foods brand, as indicated by credible reporting. The question shall resolve as the price in USD and in 2019 prices, adjusted for inflation using a commonly used U.S. CPI, such as one published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nCredible reporting of the price of the PBB burger's price should come from credible media reports, or photographic evidence of supermarkets' offline or online listings. Admin may choose to discount various evidence if it is judged that these are items are likely to be mislabelled, or due to glitches on websites, etc.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the PBB burger for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other special price structures that are only available for limited time, or to a strict subset of the supermarket's shoppers.\nPBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements for beef by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of beef, and are marketed as doing such.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nThe question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:24.541Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 130,
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:26.396Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-23T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-10T00:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:28.591Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 138,
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:30.859Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 571,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:36.492Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
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- "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:38.485Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:40.386Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:42.499Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 430,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:44.578Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:46.621Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&qid=1550223728&s=gateway&sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.\nQuestion: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?\nResolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:48.472Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:50.311Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:52.351Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nTo find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:56.192Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:15:58.019Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:01.517Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 247,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:05.080Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
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- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:07.227Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\nTherefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:08.927Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
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- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:12.479Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:14.468Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:16.696Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:18.596Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:23.939Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:25.836Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:\n--- \nEnsure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.\n--- \nBuild a stronger, more resilient nation.\n--- \nRally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change\n--- \nStand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities.\n--- \nFulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth.\nIn order to predict the success of these polices, I ask:\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\nResolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:28.047Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
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- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:29.906Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "close_time": "2033-09-29T07:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:34.991Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 200,
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- "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:36.989Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 279,
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we have micropayments?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:40.955Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 79,
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:43.138Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:45.532Z",
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- "numforecasts": 25,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:13:54Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T20:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T20:10:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:\n--- \n[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n--- \n[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n--- \n[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)\n--- \n[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n--- \n[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n--- \n[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and \n--- \n[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)\nA correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.\nThis question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:51.853Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2016-05-28T03:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\nIn the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nWill 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. grams, of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.\nFor the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).\nMoreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:55.024Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 75,
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- "publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:16:56.718Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
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- "numforecasts": 84,
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- "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on June 14, 2021, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:00.405Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 203,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T21:18:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:02.328Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:04.386Z",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:06.114Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2005 at 68.31%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2021 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:08.175Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 191,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many communist states will there be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.\nSimultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict).\nThe question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"communist state\" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.\nThis question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:12.013Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:13.900Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:15.798Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:17.791Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 63,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:19.625Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:21.625Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:23.473Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 121,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:26.973Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
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- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.\nIn March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).\nWhat will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:32.898Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the Universe end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
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- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations. \nFrom [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):\nChandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come. \nBut for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? \nQuestion resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:43.229Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-27T04:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2019-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-01-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:45.282Z",
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- "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/).\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:47.116Z",
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- "title": "If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)\nOn January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.\nIf Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?\nResolution:\n---Determination of whether Trump was elected will be based on the resolution of this question: [Will Trump be re-elected president in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) \n---If Trump is not re-elected for any reason, this question resolves according to the number of lawful permanent residents reported by the Office of Immigration Statistics for January 1, 2022. \n---If Trump is re-elected or if the Office of Immigration Statistics does not report the relevant statistics before January 1 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. \nThe report with data for 2015 to 2019 can be found on [this website](https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics).\nOther possible world:\n---[If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5125/if-trump-is-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:50.420Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-29T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-11-02T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z"
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- "title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will The Simpsons air its final episode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Simpsons has been a [phenomenally successful](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/) television property. \nTV Insider called it \"the Most Powerful TV Show of All Time\" and [reported](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/): \nThere’s no end to the marketing mania surrounding The Simpsons: More than 500 companies license the characters, and merchandise sales are now closing in on $5 billion. \nAs [Esquire reported](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a50861/the-simpsons-al-jean-interview/) back in 2016: \nThe Simpsons has just been renewed for a historic 29th and 30th season, making it the longest-running primetime TV show of all time. To put that in perspective, FXX is airing every single episode of The Simpsons consecutively in the longest TV marathon of all time. It will take 13 days. \nBart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laughingsquid.com/how-old-the-simpson-family-would-be/) than his father, Homer was when the series began.\nHow long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)?\n(Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.)\n",
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- "title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.\nThis could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:\nWhat will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?\nPrices can be queried [here](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/). Current prices as of writing are given as follows:\n--- \nTallinn to Amsterdam: €1013-€1352, with a median of €1183\n--- \nAmsterdam to Lisbon: €2730-€3641, with a median of €3186\n--- \nLisbon to Athens: €2184-€2913, with a median of €2549 \nHence the sum of the medians for each rides is €1183+€3186+€2549=€6918.\nResolution:\n---Resolution is by [Uber's estimator](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/), or the app if the former is not available.\n------if only given a range, take the median. \n---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride. \n---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:17:57.864Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-06-23T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2019-10-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-06-12T13:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:01.525Z",
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- "close_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z"
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- ]
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- {
- "title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as \"an existential threat to our community\".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/)\n[CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/)\n[Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron)\n[Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/discord-bans-wallstreetbets-as-subreddit-briefly-goes-private/)\nWill the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporarily or permanently banned from the Reddit platform. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
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- {
- "title": "When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.\nThe country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.\nWhen, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?\nFor this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as \">2050\". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.\nThe question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.\nIn the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:05.414Z",
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- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:08.844Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
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- "title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n",
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- {
- "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_(1)_(%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh)_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:14.446Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 168,
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- "publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:16.411Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1193,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority:\n---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination \n---A report from another body of the United Nations \n---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson \n---A report by another credible source \nIf the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0.\nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an internationally recognized currency, the value given will be converted to United States dollars using the [ UN Operational Rates of Exchange](https://treasury.un.org/operationalrates/default.php). If the UN Operational Rates of Exchange do not exist at that time, any other method of conversion may be used subject to the discretion of Metaculus admins. \nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is no longer used internationally, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:22.304Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2045-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:24.120Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
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- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "It is widely acknowledged that a steady push toward autonomous automobiles is underway. Many new vehicles contain several partial-autonomous features, and a number of near-autonomous or fully-autonomous vehicles are in development for consumer use. \nA key example is the Tesla 3, which (along with all future Teslas) will contain \"[full self-driving hardware](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware)\", and many speculate could be delivered with full autonomy. Elon Musk has [predicted](https://www.inverse.com/article/15200-elon-musk-half-of-all-cars-in-8-years-will-be-fully-autonomous) that \"Half of all cars in 7 or 8 years will be fully autonomous.\"\nAnother [detailed report](http://mashable.com/2016/08/26/autonomous-car-timeline-and-tech/#VjYfNZPtIEqZ) indicates level 4 autonomous cars available at some level from Audi in the late 2020s, from Ford and BMW in 2021, Nissan in 2020, Kia in 2030, Honda at some point, Tesla in 2018, and Volvo in 2017(!).\nThese could all constitute interesting separate questions, but here we'll ask a combined question inspired by Musk's prediction.\nIn what year will half of all new automobiles sold in the US be fully autonomous? \nFor specifics, we'll define \"fully autonomous\" using the NHTSA \"level 4\" designation:\nThe vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.\nWe'll also specify that \"cars\" really means \"cars,\" i.e. trucks are excluded. Resolution is by credible industry estimates.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:25.931Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 361,
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- "publish_time": "2017-01-22T17:36:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:29:30Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:27.783Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:31.166Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 134,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:32.991Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.\nDue to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. \nWe shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?\nWe shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.\nThe question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. \nResolution shall be by credible media report.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:34.930Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:36.755Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 110,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.\nA promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)\nThere are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.\nNonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example [this startup](http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/news/26902/george-churchs-startup-testing-pig-organs-in-primates/) is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.\nWhen will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? \nThe organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define \"successful\" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:38.777Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 99,
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- "publish_time": "2019-08-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was \"disgusted\" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are \"[explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html).\"\nWhen will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?\nThis question resolves when the letters in question are made public.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:40.566Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2149-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:42.495Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.\nThere are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?\nThe [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:\nIn 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? \nQuestion will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:45.648Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
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- "name": "No",
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- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\nSpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \">2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:49.375Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2030-11-10T15:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-11-10T15:19:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second.\nCurrently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. \nHowever, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. \nTo take this into account, we shall here assume that theoretical cost figures (such as reported by hardware manufacturers are 10 times too low), setting current costs at $272.70 per TFLOPS. Getting to below $1 would therefore amount to a orders of magnitude reduction in cost per TFLOPS.\nInterestingly, [according to some estimates](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/), a reduction in computing costs of roughly 2-3 orders of magnitude could place the cost of computation at the brain's communication performance in the range of human wages (around a couple hundred dollars per hour).\nWhen will a TFLOPS cost less than $1?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports a TFLOPS for Tensor, or single/double precision performance to cost less than $1 using reliable performance measurement techniques. The usual theoretical price estimates given by manufacturers will be multiplied up by a factor of 10 for the sake of this question (hence requiring a $0.1 theoretical cost per TFLOPS for positive resolution).\nPrices will be adjusted to 2018 prices using the [ Domestic Producer Prices Index: Manufacturing for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIEAMP01USA661N).\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:51.287Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 139,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T22:59:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:54.827Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 83,
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-22T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2022-03-04T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-03T15:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. \nMDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.\nNon-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?\nThis question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.\n",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
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- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:18:58.456Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:00.544Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:02.386Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:04.225Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:06.863Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 1384,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.\nThe claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.\nLet's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. \nResolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. \"Major Chinese city\" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:08.593Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:13.681Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:15.602Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:17.438Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nLevels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index).\nIn the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission). For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html). As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerability to the influence of solar weather increases apace. \nOn occasion (and independently of the longer-term changes in upper atmospheric temperature and density triggered by the solar cycle) the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field during geomagnetic storms can produce short-term [increases in the temperature and density of Earth’s thermosphere, increasing drag around satellites](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Increased drag in turn decreases the interval over which a satellite can orbit without re-adjustment. In the absence of maintenance boosting, low-earth satellites will [lose altitude and eventually re-enter the atmosphere](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/40-years-ago-skylab-reenters-earth-s-atmosphere).\nWhat will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:19.140Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-11T02:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:12:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:22.525Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:24.536Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 413,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:26.465Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 42,
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- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is \"Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur.\" As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030?\nWhat will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:28.786Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-27T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&feature=youtu.be&t=1h30m02s) was that, \"Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.\nWe ask:\nWhat will be the best bits-per-character compression of the Hutter Prize at the end of 2022? \nTo calculate the current bits-per-character(*), [click here for the Hutter Prize records table](http://www.hutter1.net/prize/index.htm#prev), look in the \"Total Size\" column for most-recently awarded value, multiply by 8 and divide by .\n(*) Strictly speaking, this is \"bits-per-byte\" but this relaxation of definitions is quite common in computerdom.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:30.612Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:03:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:34.599Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 44,
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:36.664Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 58,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-09T11:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-11T11:36:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will there be a mile-high building?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.)\nBut guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark.\nAmong them:\n--- \nThe Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 \n--- \nIn 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/merdeka-pnb118/10115) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will nip at the Burj's heels at 2,113 feet.\nBut when will a skyscraper join the mile high club? \nThe Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. But the obstacles are formidable. As [CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/tokyo-mile-high-skyscraper/index.html): \nAt that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. \"The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,\" the report explains. \nIt seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:38.623Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 205,
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- "publish_time": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
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- },
- {
- "title": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:40.652Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 798,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). \nWe might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) \"[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/).\nWhen will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when two or more supermarketets in the United States offers a clean fish product for human consumption for sale in physical locations in at least 25 states. The product must contain at least 8 grams of clean fish. The clean fish containing product must cost less than $25 per 100 grams.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:45.066Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:48.293Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-09-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:50.092Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will India become a World Bank high-income country?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.\nGNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. \nThe World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006 and $3,955, while upper-middle economies have per capita GNIs between $3,956 and $12,056. India at $6,490 in 2016 was thus about 50% below the threshold for high-income status. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. China and India together hold nearly one-third of humanity and continue to be increasingly influential players in the global economy.\n[A list of countries and territories considered high-income by the World Bank can be viewed here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy) Note that over time the World Bank has [revised the nominal dollar threshold for high-income status](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy#Historical_thresholds), and it is highly probable that they will continue to do so in the future. \nThe threshold for high-income status currently stands at $12,056 gross national income per capita US$, calculated using [the Atlas method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_method). \nThe high-income threshold was originally set in 1989 at US$6,000 in 1987 prices. Thresholds for subsequent years were adjusted taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nThis question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the World Bank?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:19:53.601Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2019-01-23T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:00.538Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 263,
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?\nThe question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.\nThis question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).\nIf fewer than two relevant studies are available in 2021, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe Metaculus results will be reported using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:03.122Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \nThis question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- {
- "title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), \"the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,\" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is \"an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).\"\nWhile the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.\nWhat will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?\n",
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- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:06.769Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Tunnel vs. Wall",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \nAm going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\nIt shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\nI am really going to do this.\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\nBy start of 2025, will there be more Tunnel than Wall? \nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:15.128Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
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- "numforecasts": 567,
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- "publish_time": "2017-02-25T16:51:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Triplebyte](https://triplebyte.com/) is a software engineering certification company that works with engineers to find jobs. Recently, [they added a path](https://triplebyte.com/blog/announcing-triplebyte-for-machine-learning-engineers) for machine learning engineers and data scientists. Triplebyte also generally releases [salary data](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/) for engineers who pass their interview process. However, their ML/data science path has apparently not been available for long enough to provide median salary data on their salary information page (currently, when you select \"ML / Data Science\" on the page, it does not change the distribution). Hopefully by 2023, the data will be available.\nWhat will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?\nIf by January 1st 2023, Triplebyte reveals the median salary for ML/data science engineers who passed their interview, then this question resolves on the median salary value in US dollars on that date (which can currently be found [here](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/)). If Triplebyte releases data on ML engineers and data scientists separately, then the median salary for ML engineers should determine resolution. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:16.857Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 40,
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- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump flee the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\nI'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\nnotany replied,\n@Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n@notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.\nWill Trump flee the United States?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:18.742Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
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- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s.\nIn June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9.\nThis relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far.\nWould we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030.\nResolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:20.571Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 88,
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- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
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- "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
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- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:33.780Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
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- "name": "No",
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- "publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. \nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) \nNeedless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.\nElon Musk: [\"From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)\n[\"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)\n[\"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)\n[You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human? \nYou can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.\nNote that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. \nResolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:35.742Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
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- {
- "title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \nThe cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk [announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet](http://www.spacex.com/mars), which he codenamed the \"[BFR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket))\".\nSpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.\nYet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the [numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png), even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?\nWe shall define a \"reusable manner\" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.\nFor a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)\nResolution is by credible media report.\nClosing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:39.708Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 571,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe MiniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved for one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Only models trained on MiniImageNet's data qualify—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:41.852Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 314,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:43.637Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.\nThis question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?\nResolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.\nNote that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and [ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:47.560Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 301,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Covid-19](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)). The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus).\nVarious research groups [have started work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus#Vaccine_research) on a vaccine to fight the virus, with [some](https://web.archive.org/web/20200125203723/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-vaccines-idUSKBN1ZN2J8) hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.\nQuestion: When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?\nDetails:\n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when one vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.\nThe first Covid-19 vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: \n---Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against Covid-19. \n---Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other. \n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against Covid-19\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as >Mar 14, 2027. If it's not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:50.294Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 419,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-05-05T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?\nResolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).\nBy average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:52.930Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals that are approved by the FDA by the end of July, 2025, for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" or \"animal drugs\" are “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals” [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals anytime before the end of July, 2025. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/) resolves positively before the end of July, 2025.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:20:57.021Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Apple car be unveiled?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/979/when-will-the-apple-car-be-unveiled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "For quite some time, Apple has apparently been working hard on some sort of car. Details are very sketchy, but what is known at of mid-2018 is laid out pretty comprehensively in [this article](http://www.motortrend.com/news/apple-car-exclusive/). It suggests a launch date of 2019, but not with any real confidence. \nWe'll ask:\nWhen will the Apple car be officially announced? \nThe announcement will presumably take the form of Tim Cook or someone being on stage with an Apple car that appears to function, but any other formal announcement will count as long as it is officially from Apple, and somehow includes an actual physical car. (This need not be a production model, or even function, but you should be able to sit in it.)\nNote that \"never\" is an option here, included with any date after June 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:00.913Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:02.860Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 94,
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- "publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5051/what-percentage-of-absentee-ballots-will-be-rejected-in-the-2020-us-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2016, [1% of absentee ballots were rejected](https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf). 27.5% of rejections were for the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state's records, 20% of rejections were for missing a signature, and 23.1% of rejections were because the ballot was not recieved on time.\nRecently, a [round of cost-cutting measures in the postal service](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/8/7/21358946/postal-service-mail-delays-election-trump-mail-in-ballots) combined with [Trump openly opposing additional funding due to mail-in voting](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/trump-opposes-usps-funding-394692) have meant that the postal service has wrote to 46 states and Washington DC that it [cannot guarantee](https://www.vox.com/2020/8/15/21369968/postal-service-trump-mail-ballot) that mail-in ballots sent by the usual deadlines will be recieved in time and advises that they be sent well in advance of the election. This raises the risk that many otherwise valid mail-in and absentee ballots will be rejected due to arriving late.\nWhat percentage of absentee ballots returned and submitted for counting in the US 2020 election will be rejected?\nResolution will be by the figure given in the 2020 [Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) Comprehensive Report](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:05.167Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 222,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well. \nThe question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:07.087Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-01-02T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:08.946Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 60,
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- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
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- "stars": 3
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- {
- "title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.\n[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).\nOn what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?\n1-- \nThe reported >=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent.\n2-- \nIf the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 2025, the question resolves as > Sep 15, 2025.\n3-- \nThe \"mining pool\" could either be a shared pool among unassociated miners, or a massive operation by a single entity.\n4-- \nNote that in hash rate distribution charts, \"Unknown\" does not necessarily mean a single unidentified mining pool is taking up that much hash rate, but simply that they aren't identified. To count for resolution, a pool must be discernibly combining their hash rate. If the hash rate from \"Unknown\" miners ever attained >=50% of the hash rate, but there were no reports to suggest a coordinated mining operation was taking up >=50% of the hash rate, then that does not count to positive resolution.\n5-- \nOne possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with >50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with >50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:15.060Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2024-09-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-09-15T04:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male \"pill\") on the US market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017. \nWhen will such contraception be available to US men?\nFor resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.) \nIt must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:20.619Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2017-08-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-11-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-08-05T05:00:00Z"
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- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.\nSince biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:22.445Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n",
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- {
- "title": "What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Per [Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index)\nThe Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education (Literacy Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio at different levels and Net Attendance Ratio), and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.\n[The HDI of the world](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) has been increasing or stayed the same every year since its inception in 1990. However, according to the [World Bank](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-effect-new-data), the COVID-19 pandemic \"is likely to push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. [...] Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades.\" \nIn 2019, the HDI of the world was 0.731. The smallest change in a single year has been +0.000 (0.601 in 1992, 0.601 in 1993), and the largest change has been +0.007, which has occurred three times (0.601-0.608 1993-1994, 0.624-0.631 1997-1998, 0.669-0.676 2005-2006).\nWhat will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?\nThe question resolves according to the [Human Development Index](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) for 2020. If that site is down, the Metaculus admins have the discretion to choose a reliable source. The question resolves when the 2020 world HDI is first made publicly available, and resolves ambiguously if it is not made publicly available by 2023.\nThe Human Development Index for 2020 will almost definitely be on the 2021 Human Development Report, not the 2020 Human Development Report. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:26.757Z",
- "options": [],
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- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:28.744Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 196,
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- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. \nThey have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition \"harvest moon\" set to be in 2021.\nThis question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:\nWill they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? \nQuestion resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:30.550Z",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 234,
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- "publish_time": "2018-06-06T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-06-16T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The era of YouTube superstars is upon us. Earlier this year, MTV catalogued 10 YouTube stars who are earning [8 figure incomes](http://www.mtv.com.au/youtube/news/heres-a-list-of-the-richest-youtubers-of-2018) off the platform. Topping the list is DanTDM, a gaming commentator who's raking in over $16 million. Wow.\nThese folks are in a [rare category](https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/even-youtube-stars-with-14-million-monthly-viewers-earn-less-than-17000-a-year-research-shows.html). But it is only a matter of time before one of these YouTube celebrities leverages their fame to run for high public office. The question is really not if, but when, will this happen?\nIn order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:\n---A person becomes widely known to the public FIRST via a vlog on YouTube and gets at least 1M subscribers... \n---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins. \nWhen will this first happen?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:36.299Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 38,
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- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-11-07T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:38.197Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will Disneyland reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4116/when-will-disneyland-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Much of the US economy is shut down in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis. At some point, businesses will reopen, likely starting with those that are important to everyday life and do not involve large groups of people. A reasonable proxy for the general reopening of the economy is the reopening of Disneyland in California as it is not critical to everyday life and does involve large crowds. If Disneyland is open, it means everything probably is as well.\nIf Disneyland in Anaheim, California reopens its doors to the public, on what day will it first do so? For the purpose of this question, the reopening day is the first day when all of the following are satisfied:\n---The Disneyland website (currently hosted [here](https://disneyland.disney.go.com/destinations/disneyland/)) is accessible and does not indicate that the park is closed (it currently has a notice about temporary closure) \n---Tickets to the park can be bought on that website \n---At least three pictures of people visiting the park for fun are published on social media or press \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:40.257Z",
- "options": [],
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- "close_time": "2020-07-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T16:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the value of the (herein described) \"AI winter index\" at end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/974/what-will-be-the-value-of-the-herein-described-ai-winter-index-at-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "There as been discussion in mid-2018 as to whether AI research may be entering a new \"winter,\" as argued in [this article](https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/04/the-ai-winter-is-well-on-its-way/). We shall define an index as follows:\n--- \n+1 if on Dec. 1, 2021 [5-year Google trends search](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=%22AI%20winter%22) on \"AI winter\" shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak (which is 100 at launch) to be at < 25, indicating that a value four times as large has occurred between those two dates; -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if two or more keynote talks at NIPS or IJCAI contain the phrase \"AI winter\" in any of those two meetings taking place in 2020 and 2021. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if the fraction of [listed YC funded startups](https://yclist.com) that mention \"AI\" or \"machine learning\" in their description is lower in the first half of 2021 than in the first half of 2018. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if search of the CS section of the arXiv for abstracts containing \"artificial intelligence\" OR \"machine learning\" for jan-may 2021 returns less than 3000 items, about 50% more than the [corresponding search for 2018](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22artificial+intelligence%22&terms-0-field=abstract&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22machine+learning%22&terms-1-field=abstract&classification-physics_archives=all&date-year=2018&date-filter_by=date_range&date-from_date=2018-01-01&date-to_date=2018-06-01&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). -1 otherwise. (For reference, 2018 returns 1922; 2017 returns 756; 2016 returns 420.)\n--- \n+1 if the ratio of results returns in the above archive search limited to \"machine learning\" divided by those limited to \"artificial intelligence\" is higher in 2021 than the 2018 value of 1752/233 = 7.52; -1 otherwise.\nAny of the above can resolve ambiguously if there is not a good consensus resolution based on reliable data. If the total number of items that resolve unambiguously is N, the index is given by the total score divided by N.\nWhat will be the late-2021 value of the AI winter index? \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:43.994Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2018-06-18T07:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
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- "close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the United States admit a new state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:51.419Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
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- {
- "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:21:57.953Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:37:57Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T21:33:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Disease:\nis a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs.\nAccording to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. \nFuturists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp),\nWould it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? That a time will come when death would result only from extraordinary accidents or the more and more gradual wearing out of vitality, and that, finally, the duration of the average interval between birth and wearing out has itself no specific limit whatsoever? No doubt man will not become immortal, but cannot the span constantly increase between the moment he begins to live and the time when naturally, without illness or accident, he finds life a burden?\nThis question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) < 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.\nOne such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:01.448Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 35,
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- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2090-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\nThus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n1-- \nAlready-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n2-- \nAlternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will programs write programs for us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Since the early days of \"machine code\" programming using a very limited instruction set, more and more high-level programming languages have been developed that layer atop this fundamental level. It is common, for example, have a Python script that calls a routine written in C and compiled into machine code. Other languages (like Mathematica) are even higher-level. Still, even a high-level language requires unambiguous specification of the steps required for the task at hand. \nIt would be much nicer to specify the desired task rather than exactly how to do it, i.e. to have systems that can write programs to specification. Such systems have had limited success so far, but there are signs of significant progress. [This recent review](https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx), for example, mentions new efforts to \"induce\" programs from a large set of input-output pairs. [A paper by Neelakantan, Le, and Sutskever](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04834), for instance, introduce a \"Neural Programmer,\" which augments a neural network with a set of basic operations that the network can be trained to use to solve a task; they showed success in training the network to reproduce the action of a set of simple programs.\nWhile machine learning (ML) systems like the Neural Programmer don't quite output (say) Python programs written to some specification, they do create a program to accomplish a particular task. Given a system to translate a specification into a trainable task, and to translate the Neural Programmer's instruction list into a typical language, this may not be that far away, at least for simple programming tasks. So we ask:\nHow long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python? \nAs a concrete challenge, we'll ask that in 2 of 5 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the first two sections of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. To avoid making this mostly about language parsing, the plaintext specification can be \"translated\" by a human operator into a plaintext description of lesser length prior to input into the ML system, so that the system functions something like a very high-level programming language. (This still leaves a major challenge of a system that turns the specification into a task for which the neural network can be trained.) \nThe existence of such a system will be determined by actual demonstration, OR by agreement by two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:05.959Z",
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- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.\nIn an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.\nIf a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\n--- \nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. \n--- \nIt resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.\n--- \nThe question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
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- "title": "What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.\nWhat will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?\nWhen the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.\nAs of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131.\nIf the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:13.197Z",
- "options": [],
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- "publish_time": "2020-11-26T23:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:43:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nIn particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \nThe risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.\nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
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- "resolve_time": "2100-07-16T22:59:00Z"
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- "title": "When will the first exaflop performer appear?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website [top500.org](https:/www.top500.org) maintains [a list of the top 500 supercomputers](https://www.top500.org/lists/2016/11/), on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots. \nViewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).\nAccording to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.\nComputational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is \"exa\", as in exaflop performance consisting of one [quintillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.\nAt what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on [Top500.org?](http://Top500.org?) (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:17.207Z",
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- "title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:21.595Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:23.435Z",
- "options": [],
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- "numforecasts": 77,
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- "publish_time": "2018-07-12T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-07T07:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "related question:\n---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) \nEconomic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:\nWhat will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?\nThis resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as\nthis question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:25.432Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
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- "title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:29.869Z",
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- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
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- "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n",
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- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. \nFor the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.\nNot included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.\nHow many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?\nIn the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:33.728Z",
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- {
- "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
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- "close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:44.210Z",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
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- "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
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- "title": "When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:46.117Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:47.981Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T07:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:49.879Z",
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- "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
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- "close_time": "2023-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-02T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:51.691Z",
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- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
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- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- {
- "title": "When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.\nWhen completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to \"study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.\"\nPer [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),\n[the INO] is an underground project and will comprise a complex of caverns. The main cavern, which will house the huge neutrino detector [50-kilo tonne magnetised iron calorimeter], will be 130 m long, 26 m wide, and 30 m high. Two smaller caverns will be used for setting up experiments for neutrino double detector and dark matter.\nOf course, the project has not been without setbacks. Locals at Western Ghats voiced concerns about radiation and environmental damage. And neutrino detectors are [incredibly sensitive](https://www.quora.com/How-do-neutrino-detectors-work) and fickle machines. And even when they work properly, the process of detecting a neutrino--and then [confirming that detection](https://icecube.wisc.edu/outreach/neutrinos) carefully--can be achingly slow.\nTo that end, on what date will researchers publicly announce the first confirmed neutrino detection at INO? \nResolution should be triggered by an official announcement from the research group that a detection has been achieved (even if not published). If necessary, a 99.9% confidence level for detection can be specified.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:54.012Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool.\nConstruction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. \nRebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is.\nThey've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever.\nAs this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes:\nThe Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic processes can turn an ocean into the Rockies in that time frame, it will make short work of the pyramids. \nThis other Quora post gives a [more precise assessment](https://www.quora.com/If-left-to-the-elements-when-will-the-pyramids-of-Egypt-erode): \nKnowing that the pyramids 4000 years ago were made of polished limestone that would have glowed, we can say that it has eroded over time. I am not sure what the exact rate of limestone degradation is, and you could probably work it out by that rate, but by what I can see, around 2 layers of blocks and various bits have fallen from the sides of the larger pyramid. Many people have said that the pyramids would last 1 million years or even until the world ended, but I’d say around 10,000 to 100,000 years based on current observations.\nWhat do you think? Assuming that humans do not intervene but the pyramids are just left to nature's tender mercies, how many years will it take, before the Great Pyramids are all eroded away into undetectability?\n(Needless to say, this is one of those questions unlikely to be resolved on a timescale anyone cares about; it's just for fun.)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:56.082Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2134-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
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- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:58.247Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-20T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2048-01-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04796853499144450688949206400915807",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9520314650085554931105079359908419",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "137",
- "liquidity": "1585.76",
- "tradevolume": "9977.68",
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.307Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9007428867327054129165036606952368",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.09925711326729458708349633930476325",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "853",
- "liquidity": "9826.84",
- "tradevolume": "96927.10",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.300Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.170996995977371772589269286804194",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.829003004022628227410730713195806",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "122",
- "liquidity": "2593.78",
- "tradevolume": "9519.49",
- "stars": 4
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-14-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 15, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 14, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.309Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3323729247731281816387191020342297",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6676270752268718183612808979657703",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "62",
- "liquidity": "5650.83",
- "tradevolume": "9005.29",
- "stars": 4
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5172991875020085726736527423312362",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4827008124979914273263472576687638",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "562",
- "liquidity": "26144.23",
- "tradevolume": "88537.93",
- "stars": 4
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.307Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1338693193154870843938621081569645",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8661306806845129156061378918430355",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "103",
- "liquidity": "2108.08",
- "tradevolume": "8747.18",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.307Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9298924736229371364678481019391842",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.07010752637706286353215189806081583",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "63",
- "liquidity": "12467.97",
- "tradevolume": "8436.43",
- "stars": 3
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.305Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9732867990029642437725352176699527",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.02671320099703575622746478233004727",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "517",
- "liquidity": "4057.43",
- "tradevolume": "79832.84",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49,999 or fewer, 50,000-62,499, 62,500-74,999, 75,000 or more",
- "history": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.308Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49,999 or fewer",
- "probability": "0.00284995242076918734124340809943596",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "50,000-62,499",
- "probability": "0.03762650549352014965374488933017359",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62,500-74,999",
- "probability": "0.9564042087259252283190549533367421",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75,000 or more",
- "probability": "0.003119333359785434685956749233648686",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "293",
- "liquidity": "2000.00",
- "tradevolume": "7528.95",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.309Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9947414308982089285866490227040758",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.005258569101791071413350977295924238",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "43",
- "liquidity": "1184.32",
- "tradevolume": "7439.83",
- "stars": 3
- }
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- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.310Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.741583872446752233683024374365151",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.258416127553247766316975625634849",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "1281",
- "liquidity": "209430.29",
- "tradevolume": "674272.26",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03413667417694183066424578230798366",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9658633258230581693357542176920163",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "133",
- "liquidity": "2628.43",
- "tradevolume": "6625.39",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.302Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0698474380887523603937269756869531",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9301525619112476396062730243130469",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "468",
- "liquidity": "4039.72",
- "tradevolume": "65532.56",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.309Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03895052073921588772001682171912906",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9610494792607841122799831782808709",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "109",
- "liquidity": "1368.68",
- "tradevolume": "6122.61",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.303Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01594316631423604659920151808627175",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9840568336857639534007984819137282",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "768",
- "liquidity": "1597.05",
- "tradevolume": "57034.77",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.09748821039260846564101130159528613",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9025117896073915343589886984047139",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "712",
- "liquidity": "1781.14",
- "tradevolume": "52868.40",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.306Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07669954432982294017531795533955721",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9233004556701770598246820446604428",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "506",
- "liquidity": "3872.64",
- "tradevolume": "51707.68",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.306Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7373184535851954646769817275173767",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2626815464148045353230182724826233",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "68",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "4268.68",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Ben Askren?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jake-paul-win-his-boxing-match-against-ben-askren",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Ben Askren, set to take place on April 17th, 2021. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Ben Askren is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.302Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5050163620487289039984542838001509",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4949836379512710960015457161998491",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "37",
- "liquidity": "42362.29",
- "tradevolume": "4262.43",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.301Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1989107792732988906353258792935972",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8010892207267011093646741207064028",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "99",
- "liquidity": "1131.33",
- "tradevolume": "4132.10",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.308Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bezos",
- "probability": "0.9440014648971449386397855584569847",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Musk",
- "probability": "0.05599853510285506136021444154301529",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "327",
- "liquidity": "2073.26",
- "tradevolume": "36737.47",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:04.236Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5188679245283019,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4339622641509434,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:09.187Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5445544554455446,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.45544554455445546,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:15.231Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.39603960396039606,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:20.103Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:26.519Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:30.850Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:35.081Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:41.420Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:45.429Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:51.134Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Curtis Sliwa, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:23:56.744Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5304347826086956,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.17391304347826086,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.07826086956521738,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.05217391304347825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paperboy Prince",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Fernando Mateo",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:02.357Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:08.424Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:12.014Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:17.733Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:21.524Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6237623762376238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.37623762376237624,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:25.344Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.39603960396039606,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:31.226Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:35.365Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:40.118Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:44.314Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nShould no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Terry McAuliffe, Jennifer Carroll Foy, Jennifer McClellan, Justin Fairfax, Lee Carter",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:49.819Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.8557692307692307,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer McClellan",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Fairfax",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lee Carter",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:24:56.098Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:00.929Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:04.421Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.36666666666666664,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.29166666666666663,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.1333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.05833333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.016666666666666663,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kirk Cox, Pete Snyder, Glenn Youngkin, Amanda Chase, Neil Chatterjee, Emmett Hanger, Bill Stanley",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:09.764Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kirk Cox",
- "probability": 0.4622641509433962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Snyder",
- "probability": 0.22641509433962262,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amanda Chase",
- "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neil Chatterjee",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmett Hanger",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Stanley",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:13.776Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.21428571428571422,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.2053571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.08928571428571426,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.08035714285714284,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.062499999999999986,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.053571428571428555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.04464285714285713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.04464285714285713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142853,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142853,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142853,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:19.555Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, A. Essaibi-George, John Barros, Jon Santiago, Marty Walsh",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:25.192Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.4444444444444445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.37962962962962965,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07407407407407408,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.03703703703703704,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.00925925925925926,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:30.304Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:34.387Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:40.533Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:45.877Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:51.434Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:25:56.490Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:00.780Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "J. D. Vance, Jane Timken, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Mike Gibbons, Jim Jordan, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:06.978Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.2982456140350877,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.2982456140350877,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.18421052631578944,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.07017543859649122,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gibbons",
- "probability": 0.043859649122807015,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Johnson",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:12.993Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:18.667Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:22.830Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Troy Carter, Karen Peterson, Chelsea Ardoin, Belden Batiste, Claston Bernard, Gary Chambers, Harold John, Christopher Johnson, Brandon Jolicoeur, Lloyd Kelly, Greg Lirette, Mindy McConnell, Desiree Ontiveros, Jenette Porter, Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:28.735Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.5652173913043478,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.3217391304347826,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:32.749Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.9056603773584905,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Francisco Sagasti",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:36.890Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:41.201Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Hassan Rouhani",
- "probability": 0.5242718446601942,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.2524271844660194,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Jong-un",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:45.036Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:48.821Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6237623762376238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.37623762376237624,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Tali Weinstein, Tahanie Aboushi, Eliza Orlins, Dan Quart, Lucy Lang, Cyrus Vance, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:52.654Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Alvin Bragg",
- "probability": 0.40196078431372545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tali Weinstein",
- "probability": 0.34313725490196073,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eliza Orlins",
- "probability": 0.049019607843137254,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Quart",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lucy Lang",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyrus Vance",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Diana Florence",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Crotty",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Paul Kagame, Nana Akufo-Addo, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:26:56.276Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
- "probability": 0.32380952380952377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
- "probability": 0.23809523809523803,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714282,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.10476190476190474,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Kagame",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:00.726Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "12 or fewer, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:05.737Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "13",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "17",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "19",
- "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20",
- "probability": 0.5619047619047619,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "21",
- "probability": 0.27619047619047615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "22",
- "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:11.751Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jon Sallet",
- "probability": 0.6403508771929823,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jonathan Kanter",
- "probability": 0.23684210526315788,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Renata Hesse",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deborah Feinstein",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Davies",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave Gelfand",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steven Sunshine",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Terrell McSweeny",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Leibowitz",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Juan Arteaga",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gigi Sohn",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Edward Smith",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Einer Elhauge",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Douglas Melamed",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrés Arauz, Guillermo Lasso, Yaku Pérez",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:15.767Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrés Arauz",
- "probability": 0.7403846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yaku Pérez",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Jair Bolsonaro, Justin Trudeau, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:20.453Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Emilia Sykes, Nan Whaley, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:24.329Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:28.898Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.6862745098039215,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.13725490196078433,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.049019607843137254,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "62 or fewer, 63 or 64, 65 or 66, 67 or 68, 69 or 70, 71 or 72, 73 or 74, 75 or 76, 77 or 78, 79 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:33.491Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "62 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.11214953271028036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 or 64",
- "probability": 0.1588785046728972,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 or 66",
- "probability": 0.308411214953271,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "67 or 68",
- "probability": 0.2336448598130841,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "69 or 70",
- "probability": 0.102803738317757,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 or 72",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "73 or 74",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75 or 76",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 or 78",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "79 or more",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Guy Reschenthaler, Ryan Costello, Donald Trump Jr., Everett Stern, Charlie Dent",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:39.761Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Costello",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Everett Stern",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Dent",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:45.942Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:51.574Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:27:56.741Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.4653465346534653,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Gene Sperling, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Sarah Bianchi, Heather Boushey, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, John Jones",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:02.953Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Shalanda Young",
- "probability": 0.40999999999999986,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nani Coloretti",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Martha Coven",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gene Sperling",
- "probability": 0.059999999999999984,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Bernstein",
- "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Lu",
- "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thea Lee",
- "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Bianchi",
- "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heather Boushey",
- "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonal Shah",
- "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann O'Leary",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neera Tanden",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Jones",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:06.604Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Xavier Becerra, Adam Schiff, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton, Darrell Steinberg, Goodwin Liu, Anna Caballero",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:12.700Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rob Bonta",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xavier Becerra",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Rosen",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Diana Becton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Darrell Steinberg",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Goodwin Liu",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anna Caballero",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:16.579Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:20.129Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mark Rutte, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:26.366Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.5428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.18095238095238095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Rafael López Aliaga, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Pedro Castillo, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:29.799Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yonhy Lescano",
- "probability": 0.37068965517241376,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hernando de Soto",
- "probability": 0.3017241379310344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.12068965517241378,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.06896551724137931,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.043103448275862065,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Forsyth",
- "probability": 0.025862068965517238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Castillo",
- "probability": 0.017241379310344827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Urresti",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "César Acuña",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Beingolea",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Julio Guzmán",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ollanta Humala",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Salaverry",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Dan Rodimer, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Jake Ellzey, Brian Harrison, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:34.582Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Susan Wright",
- "probability": 0.798076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jana Sanchez",
- "probability": 0.125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Rodimer",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katrina Pierson",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sery Kim",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jake Ellzey",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Harrison",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lydia Bean",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shawn Lassiter",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Andrew Grant Houston, Lance Randall, Jenny Durkan, James Donaldson",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:38.744Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lorena González",
- "probability": 0.49019607843137253,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jessyn Farrell",
- "probability": 0.21568627450980393,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Colleen Echohawk",
- "probability": 0.13725490196078433,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.06862745098039216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
- "probability": 0.049019607843137254,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lance Randall",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jenny Durkan",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Donaldson",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, David Shambaugh, Charlene Barshefsky, Dan Kritenbrink",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:44.797Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nicholas Burns",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rahm Emanuel",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Shambaugh",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Kritenbrink",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Vernon Jones, Kelly Loeffler, Chris Carr, David Perdue, Geoff Duncan, Brian Kemp",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:50.995Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Carr",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoff Duncan",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:54.987Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.6138613861386139,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.16831683168316833,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:28:59.246Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:03.591Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Billy Long, Carl Edwards, John Brunner",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:07.565Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.3925233644859813,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.3644859813084112,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.102803738317757,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vicky Hartzler",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Brunner",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Richard Burr, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:13.214Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Burr",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Forest",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Meadows",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:16.987Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:21.064Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the \"Tie Votes\" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).\nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "3 votes, 4 or 5 votes, 6 or 7 votes, 8 or 9 votes, 10 or 11 votes, 12 or 13 votes, 14 or 15 votes, 16 or 17 votes, 18 or 19 votes, 20 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:26.349Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9 votes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or 11 votes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12 or 13 votes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or 15 votes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16 or 17 votes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18 or 19 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20 or more",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:32.234Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:35.836Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tishaura Jones, Cara Spencer",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:41.378Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:47.279Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.2980769230769231,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "R House, D Senate",
- "probability": 0.2980769230769231,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.2788461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "D House, R Senate",
- "probability": 0.125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:51.945Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathy Hochul",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jumaane Williams",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Suozzi",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:29:55.822Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Richard Lee Watkins, Erica Smith, Heath Shuler",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:01.659Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jeff Jackson",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cheri Beasley",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Erica Smith",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heath Shuler",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:06.263Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8285714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nina Turner, Shontel Brown, John Barnes Jr., Bryan Flannery, Jeff Johnson, Tariq Shabazz, Shirley Smith, Dennis Kucinich",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:10.004Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nina Turner",
- "probability": 0.7064220183486238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shontel Brown",
- "probability": 0.2385321100917431,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barnes Jr.",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bryan Flannery",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Johnson",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tariq Shabazz",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shirley Smith",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dennis Kucinich",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Kind, Alex Lasry, Sarah Godlewski, Tom Nelson",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:14.329Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Kind",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alex Lasry",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Godlewski",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Nelson",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:20.593Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mo Brooks, Katie Britt, Lynda Blanchard, Richard Shelby, John Merrill, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:25.336Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mo Brooks",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katie Britt",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Shelby",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Merrill",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Moore",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Sessions",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bill Peduto, Ed Gainey",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:31.729Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bill Peduto",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ed Gainey",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract \"Under 2%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 2%, 2% to 4%, 4% to 6%, 6% to 8%, 8% to 10%, 10% to 12%, 12% to 14%, 14% to 16%, 16% to 18%, 18% or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:37.892Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.9166666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1.6M, 1.6M to 1.625M, 1.625M to 1.65M, 1.65M to 1.675M, 1.675M to 1.7M, 1.7M to 1.725M, 1.725M to 1.75M, 1.75M to 1.775M, 1.775M to 1.8M, 1.8M or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:43.629Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 1.6M",
- "probability": 0.07142857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.6M to 1.625M",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.625M to 1.65M",
- "probability": 0.07142857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.65M to 1.675M",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.675M to 1.7M",
- "probability": 0.25892857142857145,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.7M to 1.725M",
- "probability": 0.25892857142857145,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.725M to 1.75M",
- "probability": 0.11607142857142859,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.75M to 1.775M",
- "probability": 0.026785714285714288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.775M to 1.8M",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.8M or more",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:47.269Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Ashley Hinson, Jim Carlin, Matthew Whitaker",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:52.324Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Chuck Grassley",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat Grassley",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashley Hinson",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Carlin",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew Whitaker",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources).\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "3 or fewer, 4 or 5, 6 or 7, 8 or 9, 10 or 11, 12 or 13, 14 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:30:57.384Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or 5",
- "probability": 0.2897196261682243,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or 7",
- "probability": 0.6355140186915887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or 11",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12 or 13",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or more",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil, Scott Walker",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:02.512Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gallagher",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Steil",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Walker",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7195/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Samantha-Power-as-USAID-Administrator-by-4-30",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"59 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"84 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "59 or fewer, 60 to 62, 63 to 65, 66 to 68, 69 to 71, 72 to 74, 75 to 77, 78 to 80, 81 to 83, 84 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:06.071Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "59 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.5636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "60 to 62",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 to 65",
- "probability": 0.01818181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "66 to 68",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "69 to 71",
- "probability": 0.045454545454545456,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "72 to 74",
- "probability": 0.06363636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75 to 77",
- "probability": 0.06363636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "78 to 80",
- "probability": 0.07272727272727272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "81 to 83",
- "probability": 0.054545454545454536,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "84 or more",
- "probability": 0.06363636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:11.248Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Marjorie Greene",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:17.157Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marjorie Greene",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7199/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-LA-02-House-special-election-runoff",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for both candidates officially reported, in the runoff of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 2%, 2% to 4%, 4% to 6%, 6% to 8%, 8% to 10%, 10% to 12%, 12% to 14%, 14% to 16%, 16% to 18%, 18% or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:23.303Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.09803921568627451,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.08823529411764705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.058823529411764705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.058823529411764705,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Canada holds national elections to the federal House of Commons before the End Date listed below. One or more by-elections to individual seats that may fall vacant shall not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes. National elections that may be called in 2021 but that will not take place until after the End Date will likewise not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:26.812Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Wendy Sherman as Deputy Sec. of State by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7201/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wendy-Sherman-as-Deputy-Sec-of-State-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wendy Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Sherman be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of State in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"74 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50 to 52, 53 to 55, 56 to 58, 59 to 61, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:31.907Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50 to 52",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53 to 55",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56 to 58",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "59 to 61",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 or more",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Vanita Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen. by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7202/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vanita-Gupta-as-Assoc-Attorney-Gen-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vanita Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Gupta be confirmed to position of Associate Attorney General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:35.867Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.3786407766990291,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.2912621359223301,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.20388349514563106,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Colin Kahl as UnderSecDef for Policy by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7203/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Colin-Kahl-as-UnderSecDef-for-Policy-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Colin Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Kahl be confirmed to position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:40.354Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:45.140Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:49.883Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jody Hice",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Raffensperger",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Belle Isle",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Quinton Lucas, Scott Sifton, Jay Nixon, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:31:54.705Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Quinton Lucas",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Sifton",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Nixon",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Koster",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7207/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 5/1/2021 12:00 AM (ET) [beginning of the day]\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:01.001Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:05.114Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:09.909Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:14.988Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Nikki Fried, Val Demings, Charlie Crist",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:19.447Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.7596153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Fried",
- "probability": 0.16346153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Val Demings",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Crist",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the presidential election in Peru?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7212/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-presidential-election-in-Peru",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported (Votos Validos, excluding blank and spoiled ballots), in the first round of the 2021 Peruvian Presidential election. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract \"Under 1%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 1%, 1% to 2%, 2% to 3%, 3% to 4%, 4% to 5%, 5% to 6%, 6% to 7%, 7% to 8%, 8% to 9%, 9% or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:23.856Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 1%",
- "probability": 0.28571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1% to 2%",
- "probability": 0.20952380952380947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 3%",
- "probability": 0.17142857142857137,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 5%",
- "probability": 0.05714285714285713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.05714285714285713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 7%",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 9%",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "9% or more",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the Ecuadorian presidential runoff election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7213/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Ecuadorian-presidential-runoff-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the candidate, between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso, who wins a larger percentage of the popular vote in the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential runoff election, and the difference in the percentages of the popular vote won by these two candidates. Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total number of votes for the two candidates officially reported. Blank (blancos) or spoiled (nulos) ballots are excluded from these calculations.\nIn the event of a tie in the percentage of the popular vote won by the two party candidates, the contract \"Arauz, less than 1%\" shall resolve to Yes. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Arauz by 5% or more, Arauz by 4% - 5%, Arauz by 3% - 4%, Arauz by 2% - 3%, Arauz by 1% - 2%, Arauz, less than 1%, Lasso, less than 1%, Lasso by 1% - 2%, Lasso by 2% - 3%, Lasso by 3% or more",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:28.824Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 5% or more",
- "probability": 0.2644628099173554,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 4% - 5%",
- "probability": 0.15702479338842976,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 3% - 4%",
- "probability": 0.17355371900826447,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 2% - 3%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 1% - 2%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz, less than 1%",
- "probability": 0.049586776859504134,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso, less than 1%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso by 1% - 2%",
- "probability": 0.09917355371900827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso by 2% - 3%",
- "probability": 0.1322314049586777,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso by 3% or more",
- "probability": 0.12396694214876033,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ",
- "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c",
- "platform": "Omen",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:29.989Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3032935619590304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6967064380409697,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
- "platform": "Omen",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:29.990Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5509755750419132,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44902442495808675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Contracts to be added on request",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Johnny Mercer, Michael Gove, Matthew Hancock, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood, Steve Baker, Ruth Davidson, Esther McVey, Philip Hammond, Rishi Sunak",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:59.314Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sajid Javid",
- "probability": 0.03746229444390386,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rory Stewart",
- "probability": 0.0009730466089325679,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
- "probability": 0.025591125814926532,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Penny Mordaunt",
- "probability": 0.027050695728325382,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeremy Hunt",
- "probability": 0.10810547825240828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Cleverly",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dominic Raab",
- "probability": 0.06490220881580228,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Tugendhat",
- "probability": 0.06276150627615062,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
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- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election",
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- "title": "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021",
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- "title": "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election",
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- "description": "Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",
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- "title": "Macron first round vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",
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- "title": "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.",
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- "name": "Hilary Benn",
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- "name": "Kate Osborne",
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- "name": "Zarah Sultana",
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- "title": "Gender of the next Labour leader",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",
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- "title": "First Minister to leave the Cabinet?",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",
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- "title": "Keir Starmer exit date",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "2023 or earlier, 2024, 2025 or later",
- "history": [
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- "title": "2021 London mayoral election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Siân Berry, , Brian Rose, Mandu Reid, Luisa Porritt, Laurence Fox, David Kurten, Piers Corbyn, Farah London, Peter Gammons",
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- "title": "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
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- "title": "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andy Street, Liam Byrne, Beverley Nielsen, Kathryn Downs",
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- "title": "2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner",
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- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ben Houchen, Jessie Joe Jacobs",
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- "title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "title": "Local elections highest vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Labour",
- "history": [
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- "options": [
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- "title": "Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader",
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- "title": "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
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- "description": "Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",
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- "title": "How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?",
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- "description": "How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",
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- "description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",
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- "title": "Brexit Party to control any council",
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- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",
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- "title": "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
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- "description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
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- "description": "How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",
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- "description": "Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",
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- "description": "What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",
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- "title": "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary",
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- "description": "Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
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- "title": "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary",
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- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
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- "title": "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner",
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- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "description": "What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",
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- "title": "Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?",
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- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",
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- "title": "London elections: In-person voting",
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- "title": "Trump to create new political party",
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- "title": "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021",
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- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Metaculus responders (~2021)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.\n\nWhile the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
- "url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Nick Bostrom (~2002)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Gott III (~1993)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Wells (~2009)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9965,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
- "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Simpson (~2016)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.2%\n\nBeard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\".",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Ozzie Gooen (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
- "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Survey of AI experts (~2017)",
- "description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0-10%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Ben Garfinkel (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.1-1%\n\nGarfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "James Fodor (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential risk from AI",
- "url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 5-30%\n\nI put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
- "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2014)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33%\n\nStated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
- "url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Jaan Tallinn (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 33-50%\n\nThis comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.585,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.00004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
- "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019)\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0000019,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999981,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "James Fodor (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0002%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0100%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)\n\nSee this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~33% (\"about one in three\")\n\nOrd: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\"",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Survey of experts in the AI field (~2016)",
- "description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~20%\n\nThis may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~2%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
- "url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Luke Oman (~2012)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)\n\nI think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 30-40%\n\nArden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.1%\n\nReduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
- "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nSo, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
- "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~20-30%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nThere’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nI haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~50%\n\nBasically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 1.10%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.011,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.989,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.38%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0038,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-07T18:39:34.560Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {}
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:51.936Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:59.689Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6918/us-southwest-border-encounters-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "News outlets are reporting [a surge in migrants at the southern border](https://apnews.com/article/mexico-immigration-united-states-1efbf1f357a5210d2433b48820b9aa54). US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [reported 100,441 border encounters](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters) at the southwest land border in February, the largest number reported for February in the last three years. Some pundits [are suggesting](https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/how-trump-got-control-of-the-border/) that the \"border surge\" will get even worse in the coming months.\nCBP defines land border encounters as follows:\nUS Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible Volumes, and Title 42 Expulsions by Fiscal Year (FY)\nMore information on these encounter types can be found [at the CBP website](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/title-8-and-title-42-statistics).\nIn March of 2020 the reporting methodology changed to include Title 42 expulsions due to the issuance of a new order from the CDC. [Due to COVID-19 and public health concerns](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/how-the-trump-administration-is-using-covid-19-to-continue-its-border-deterrence-efforts/), the new order granted increased authority to border officials to expel immigrants who did not have prior authorization for entry. Previously the metric appeared to have tracked apprehensions and inadmissibles (see an [archive of the CBP page and data from January of 2020 here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200101014739/https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration)).\nHow many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?\nThe question will resolve as the total number of \"Southwest Land Border Encounters\" [as reported by CBP](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters) for the month of May in 2021.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:56.111Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:01.891Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 720,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.\nHowever, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?\". The answer given was \"Probably not\" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).\nWill Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?\nThis question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.\nThis question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam.\n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:06.034Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6963/transplants-without-immunosuppressants/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "description": "Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their lives in order to avoid organ rejection. This dependence on drugs is of course a sad and significant inconvenience to the patients. A number of laboratories around the world are working to eliminate the necessity of them, and they have made progress by for example using bone marrow from the donor (which was shown to decrease the dose of drugs needed).\nWhen will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?\nThis question will resolve when the first organ transplant is successfully performed without the need for any immunosuppressants.\nFor this question, any transplant of the following organs shall count: skin, cornea, uterus, kidney, liver, lung, heart, pancreas, intestine, stomach, testis, penis, thymus.\nTransplants from twins or clones of the patient (which have occurred since 1954) are not included for this question. A genetically modified organ, grown in an animal or artificial environment shall be allowed.\nIn some instances, immunosuppressant drugs are not necessary (for instance, children under 12 months old). This question is meant to predict the discovery of a method which is >50% effective for >50% of the population (for any one or more organs). \n",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:47.990Z",
- "options": [],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-06T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-10T22:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-10T22:32:00Z"
- },
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 170 Gwei on April 19?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-170-gwei-on-april-19",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 170 Gwei on April 19, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the daily average Ethereum gas price is listed as being below 170 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If the daily average Ethereum gas price is 170 Gwei or higher for that date, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 19, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6755572443640393018752364739146016",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3244427556359606981247635260853984",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "804.76",
- "tradevolume": "533.17",
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- },
- {
- "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on April 14, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elonmusk-account-on-april-14-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @ElonMusk, shall exceed 13,963 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @ElonMusk, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@ElonMusk\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @ElonMusk just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Elon Musk, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @ElonMusk will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 30, 30-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, More than 80",
- "history": [
- {
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 30",
- "probability": "0.02712575215606869253252600966220513",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "30-40",
- "probability": "0.1115263745913060475253404147763908",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41-50",
- "probability": "0.2219636014313589647902402720571277",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51-60",
- "probability": "0.2547160184188490839953676900262511",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61-70",
- "probability": "0.1907413972112541594210074122414898",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71-80",
- "probability": "0.1255456580166040091498031486191968",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 80",
- "probability": "0.06838119817455904258571505261733859",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "152",
- "liquidity": "2555.00",
- "tradevolume": "4495.18",
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
- ]
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/metaforecasts_history_temp.json b/data/old/metaforecasts_history_temp.json
deleted file mode 100644
index cbcdcdf..0000000
--- a/data/old/metaforecasts_history_temp.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,70499 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "68",
- "numforecasters": "61",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "40",
- "numforecasters": "36",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 5.5%",
- "probability": 0.11220000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
- "probability": 0.1967,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2813,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19649999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 12%",
- "probability": 0.2133,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "94",
- "numforecasters": "79",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "21",
- "numforecasters": "20",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position. Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "19",
- "numforecasters": "16",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "17",
- "numforecasters": "16",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021. The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.04190000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.30670000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.3063,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.21780000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "47",
- "numforecasters": "39",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 70,000",
- "probability": 0.1272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.34299999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
- "probability": 0.31679999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
- "probability": 0.1555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 130,000",
- "probability": 0.0574,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "83",
- "numforecasters": "68",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000, More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000, More than 130,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.11630000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1747,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.4926,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.1968,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.0195,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "31",
- "numforecasters": "27",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 3%",
- "probability": 0.22690000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31079999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.2969,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.11380000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.051500000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "20",
- "numforecasters": "18",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3%, Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%, More than 7.5%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.050199999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12560000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.23129999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.3196,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.2733,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "79",
- "numforecasters": "69",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "138",
- "numforecasters": "108",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "187",
- "numforecasters": "134",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $40 billion",
- "probability": 0.0528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2522,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
- "probability": 0.405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
- "probability": 0.2175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 billion",
- "probability": 0.0725,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "numforecasters": "46",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $40 billion, Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive, More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion, More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion, More than $100 billion"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $13 billion",
- "probability": 0.0337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12369999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
- "probability": 0.4183,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.32130000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.10300000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "57",
- "numforecasters": "43",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $13 billion, Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive, More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion, More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion, More than $25 billion"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than -0.25",
- "probability": 0.1943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3171,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
- "probability": 0.3009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
- "probability": 0.1464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.5",
- "probability": 0.0412,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "148",
- "numforecasters": "110",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.051,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1984,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
- "probability": 0.3619,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
- "probability": 0.2429,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $650 million",
- "probability": 0.1458,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "113",
- "numforecasters": "90",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $30 million",
- "probability": 0.0492,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
- "probability": 0.3403,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
- "probability": 0.2051,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $150 million",
- "probability": 0.1018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "142",
- "numforecasters": "114",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0971,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
- "probability": 0.2187,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
- "probability": 0.33390000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.32030000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "71",
- "numforecasters": "44",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 800",
- "probability": 0.1264,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
- "probability": 0.46130000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
- "probability": 0.2834,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
- "probability": 0.09910000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 100,000",
- "probability": 0.0297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "153",
- "numforecasters": "102",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\" The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 0.45%",
- "probability": 0.049699999999999994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
- "probability": 0.28300000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
- "probability": 0.2289,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.2%",
- "probability": 0.2605,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "66",
- "numforecasters": "54",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.45%, Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive, More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%, More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%, More than 1.2%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "151",
- "numforecasters": "90",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.0929,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18170000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
- "probability": 0.3617,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
- "probability": 0.24850000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 35%",
- "probability": 0.1151,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "74",
- "numforecasters": "59",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 20%, Between 20% and 25%, inclusive, More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%, More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%, More than 35%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "346",
- "numforecasters": "194",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before February 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.0242,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.08220000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.2161,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "After November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.6775,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "244",
- "numforecasters": "135",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 59%",
- "probability": 0.1177,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1777,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
- "probability": 0.26780000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
- "probability": 0.29600000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 80%",
- "probability": 0.1409,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "236",
- "numforecasters": "169",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "197",
- "numforecasters": "132",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021",
- "platform": "CSET-foretell",
- "description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.5%",
- "probability": 0.0675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.13720000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
- "probability": 0.2133,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.29059999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6%",
- "probability": 0.2914,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "220",
- "numforecasters": "140",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5648011363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4351988636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 352,
- "numforecasters": 143,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8212340425531914,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17876595744680857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 235,
- "numforecasters": 127,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3674375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6325625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "numforecasters": 104,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5289130434782608,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47108695652173915,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "numforecasters": 96,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.757280701754386,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.242719298245614,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "numforecasters": 92,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6333177570093458,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3666822429906542,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "numforecasters": 91,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6183620689655173,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38163793103448274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "numforecasters": 87,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "...be an environmental disaster.",
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- "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
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- "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
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- "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
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- "stars": 1,
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- "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "stars": 1,
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- "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
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- "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
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- "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",
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- "stars": 1,
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- "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",
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- "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "numforecasts": 35,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
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- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "numforecasts": 28,
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- "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",
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- "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
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- "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
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- "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
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- "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
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- {
- "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
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- "stars": 1,
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- "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
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- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
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- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
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- "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
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- "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
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- "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
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- "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
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- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
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- "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
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- "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
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- "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",
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- "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
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- "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",
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- "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
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- "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",
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- "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",
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- "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",
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- "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
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- "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",
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- "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",
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- "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",
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- "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",
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- "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
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- "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",
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- "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",
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- "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",
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- "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
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- "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
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- "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
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- "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
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- "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
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- "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
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- "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",
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- "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
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- "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
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- "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",
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- "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
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- "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "US presidents term limits abolished",
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- "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
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- "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
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- "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
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- "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
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- "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
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- "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
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- "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
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- "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",
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- "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
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- "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
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- "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
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- "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
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- "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",
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- "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
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- "numforecasts": 17,
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- "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
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- "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",
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- "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
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- "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
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- "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"",
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- "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
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- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
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- "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
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- "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- {
- "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
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- "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
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- {
- "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- },
- {
- "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
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- {
- "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 17,
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- {
- "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 17,
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- {
- "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0955,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 20,
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- {
- "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 16,
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- {
- "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
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- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06625,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.93375,
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- "numforecasts": 32,
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- {
- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
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- "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- {
- "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
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- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 15,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6653846153846154,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33461538461538465,
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- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8683333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1316666666666667,
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
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- "numforecasts": 15,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
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- "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3684615384615385,
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- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
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- "numforecasts": 15,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4607142857142857,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5392857142857144,
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
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- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6083333333333334,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7892307692307692,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21076923076923082,
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04642857142857143,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9535714285714285,
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "100 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.007931034482758621,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9920689655172413,
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- "numforecasts": 29,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
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- "name": "No",
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9228571428571428,
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2025,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7975,
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- "numforecasts": 16,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.006,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.994,
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- "numforecasts": 15,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
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- },
- {
- "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",
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- "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",
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- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",
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- "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
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- "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
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- "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
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- "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",
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- "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
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- "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
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- "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",
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- "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
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- "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
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- "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
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- "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
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- "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
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- "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
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- "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",
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- "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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- "title": "'President Mike Pence'",
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- "numforecasts": 16,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- {
- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- },
- {
- "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- },
- {
- "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10285714285714287,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
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- "name": "No",
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- {
- "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- },
- {
- "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13666666666666666,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31384615384615383,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6861538461538461,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2809090909090909,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7190909090909091,
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10785714285714286,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8921428571428571,
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "50 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 34,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5484615384615384,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 26,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.467,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5329999999999999,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27785714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7221428571428572,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07416666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9258333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24600000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.754,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.113,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.158,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.842,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7709999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2290000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2963636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7036363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.556,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44399999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.750909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24909090909090903,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
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- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.198,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.958,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17923076923076922,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8207692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.204,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.796,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.789,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21099999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
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- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13142857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8685714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3346153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6653846153846155,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.783,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.261,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.739,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "probability": 0.587,
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
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- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
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- {
- "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.309,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3681818181818182,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6318181818181818,
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- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4107692307692308,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5892307692307692,
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- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
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- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
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- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
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- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.975,
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.155,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.845,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4727272727272728,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Security (Symbol)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/symbol",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abbv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abmd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Accenture (ACN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/acn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/atvi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adbe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aap",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AES Corp (AES)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aes",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Aflac (AFL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/afl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/a",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/akam",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/are",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alxn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/algn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alle",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/all",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/googl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/goog",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amzn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amcr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aee",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aal",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aep",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Express (AXP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/axp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American International Group (AIG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aig",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/awk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ametek (AME)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ame",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amgn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aph",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Analog Devices (ADI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"ANSYS (ANSS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anss",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/antm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Aon plc (AON)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aon",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aos",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aapl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amat",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aptv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anet",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ajg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aiz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/t",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ato",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adsk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/azo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bll",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bax",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bdx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/brk.b",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bby",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bio",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/biib",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/blk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ba",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkng",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bwa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bxp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bsx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bmy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avgo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/br",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bf.b",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chrw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cog",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdns",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cpb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cof",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cah",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ccl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/carr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctlt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cat",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cboe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cbre",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CDW (CDW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Celanese (CE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ce",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cerner (CERN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cern",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/schw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chtr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cigna (CI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cinf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctas",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csco",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/c",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cfg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctxs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/clx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cme",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cms",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ko",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctsh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cma",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cag",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cop",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ed",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/coo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cprt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/glw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctva",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cost",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dri",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dva",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/de",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dal",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xray",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dvn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxcm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fang",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dlr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dfs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disca",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disck",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dish",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dollar General (DG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dltr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/d",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dpz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dov",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dow",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dte",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/duk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dre",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ebay",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ecl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eix",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ew",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ea",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/enph",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eog",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/efx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqix",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Essex Property Trust (ESS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ess",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/el",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etsy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/evrg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/es",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/re",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xom",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ffiv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Facebook (FB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fast",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fdx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fitb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fisv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flir",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fls",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fmc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/f",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftnt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fbhs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/foxa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fox",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ben",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fcx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gps",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/grmn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/it",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Electric (GE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ge",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Mills (GIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for General Motors (GM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gild",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gww",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hal",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hbi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hig",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/has",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hca",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peak",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsic",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hes",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hlt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/holx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Home Depot (HD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hon",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hrl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hst",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hwm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpq",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hum",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hban",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hii",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iex",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/idxx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/info",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/itw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ilmn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Incyte (INCY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/incy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ir",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ice",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ibm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for International Paper (IP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ip",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iff",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/isrg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ivz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipgp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iqv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/irm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jkhy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/j",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jbht",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sjm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnj",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jpm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnpr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ksu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/k",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/key",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/keys",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kim",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/klac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/khc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lhx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lrcx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lvs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/leg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ldos",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/len",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lly",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lin",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lkq",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lmt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/l",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/low",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lumn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mro",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mktx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mar",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mlm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mas",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ma",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mkc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mxim",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mcd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mck",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mrk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/met",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mgm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mchp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msft",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/maa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mhk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tap",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdlz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpwr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mnst",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mco",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ms",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mos",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msci",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Nasdaq (NDAQ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ndaq",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntap",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nflx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nem",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwsa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nws",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nee",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlsn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Nike (NKE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nke",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ni",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nsc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntrs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/noc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlok",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nclh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nov",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nrg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nue",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvda",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"NVR (NVR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orly",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oxy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/odfl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/omc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Oneok (OKE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oke",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orcl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/otis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pcar",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pkg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ph",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pypl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pbct",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pep",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pki",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/prgo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfe",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pxd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pool",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pgr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Prologis (PLD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pld",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pru",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/phm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pvh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qrvo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pwr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qcom",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dgx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rjf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rtx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/o",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/reg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/regn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rsg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ResMed (RMD)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rmd",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rhi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rok",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Rollins (ROL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rol",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rop",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rost",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rcl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spgi",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/crm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/see",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sre",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/now",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/shw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swks",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sna",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Southern Company (SO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/so",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/luv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbux",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Steris (STE)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ste",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sivb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syf",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/snps",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmus",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trow",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ttwo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Tapestry (TPR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tpr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tgt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tel",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Teradyne (TER)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ter",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Tesla (TSLA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsla",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tjx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsco",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdg",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trv",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trmb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"Twitter (TWTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/twtr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tyl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"UDR (UDR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/udr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ulta",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/usb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uaa",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ua",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unp",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ual",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ups",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for \"United Rentals (URI)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uri",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uhs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vlo",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/var",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vz",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrtx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/viac",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtrs",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/v",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vontier (VNT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vnt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vno",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vmc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wab",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Walmart (WMT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmt",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wba",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dis",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wm",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wat",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wec",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wfc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/well",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wst",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wdc",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wu",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for WestRock (WRK)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrk",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wy",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/whr",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmb",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wltw",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wynn",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xel",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xerox (XRX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xrx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xlnx",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xyl",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/yum",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbra",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbh",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zion",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)",
- "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zts",
- "platform": "Estimize",
- "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In Google LLC v. Oracle America Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "21.43% (21 out of 98) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21428571428571427,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7857142857142857,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "73.68% (70 out of 95) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7368421052631579,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26315789473684215,
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- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/borden-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "52.94% (27 out of 51) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5294117647058824,
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- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47058823529411764,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "33.33% (21 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "10.47% (9 out of 86) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10465116279069768,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8953488372093024,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/niz-chavez-v-barr/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "28.57% (14 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/texas-v-california-severability/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.30158730158730157,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6984126984126984,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/california-v-texas-standing/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "72.13% (44 out of 61) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7213114754098361,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2786885245901639,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/van-buren-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14035087719298245,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8596491228070176,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cargill-inc-v-doe-i/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15789473684210525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8421052631578947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/nestle-usa-inc-v-doe-i/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1951219512195122,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8048780487804879,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cic-services-llc-v-internal-revenue-service/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/edwards-v-vannoy/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "36.73% (18 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3673469387755102,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6326530612244898,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/henry-schein-inc-v-archer/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mnuchin-v-collins/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6363636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36363636363636365,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/collins-v-mnuchin/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8484848484848485,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1515151515151515,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/pham-v-guzman-chavez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/amg-capital-management-llc-v-ftc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25806451612903225,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7419354838709677,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/bp-plc-v-mayor-and-city-council-of-baltimore/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "37.50% (3 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 8,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "27.27% (3 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2727272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7272727272727273,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 9,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1111111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8888888888888888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 9,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "80.00% (8 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "42.86% (3 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42857142857142855,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5714285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 7,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 4,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/yellen-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "33.33% (1 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/alaska-native-village-corporation-association-v-confederated-tribes-of-the-chehalis-reservation/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/greer-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/city-of-san-antonio-texas-v-hotelscom-lp/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/minerva-surgical-inc-v-hologic-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/guam-v-united-states/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/thomas-more-law-center-v-becerra/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/americans-for-prosperity-foundation-v-becerra/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/hollyfrontier-cheyenne-refining-llc-v-renewable-fuels-association/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-palomar-santiago/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 2,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 3,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 8,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-arthrex-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "82.35% (14 out of 17) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8235294117647058,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17647058823529416,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/carr-v-saul/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "31.25% (5 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/smith-nephew-inc-v-arthrex-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arthrex-inc-v-smith-nephew-inc/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "14.29% (2 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8571428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3611111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6388888888888888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/davis-v-saul/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/trump-v-sierra-club/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-dai/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/barr-v-alcaraz-enriquez/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-association-of-broadcasters-v-prometheus-radio-project/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/wolf-v-innovation-law-lab/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 4,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/brnovich-v-democratic-national-committee/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
- "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/",
- "platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "stars": 2,
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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- "title": "New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
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- "title": "New Incentives still operates in 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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- "stars": 2,
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- {
- "title": "We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
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- "name": "No",
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- "stars": 2,
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- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "stars": 2,
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- {
- "title": "An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
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- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "This grant does not lead to any new top charities.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
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- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
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- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
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- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
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- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
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- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
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- "title": "We recommend a second grant to CPSP",
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- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
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- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
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- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
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- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
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- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
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- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
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- "description": "Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",
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- "title": "At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)",
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- "stars": 2,
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- "title": "Fortify Health becomes a top charity.",
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- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022",
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- "probability": 0.25,
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
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- "probability": 0.75,
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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- "title": "Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.",
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- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
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- "title": "Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
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- "title": "GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
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- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
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- "title": "Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
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- "title": "GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
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- "title": "GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives",
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- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)",
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- "probability": 0.75,
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- "stars": 2,
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- {
- "title": "We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. ",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program ",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- {
- "title": "Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
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- {
- "title": "CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- "probability": 0.5,
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.65,
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- {
- "title": "The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.5,
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from EV-volumes.com whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV & PHEV share for 2020 was 4.2%.",
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- {
- "name": "Less than 4.0%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "More than 7.0%",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%, Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive, More than 7.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect OPEC production after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. The April 2020 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in March 2020 (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 21 million barrels per day",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30 million barrels per day",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 21 million barrels per day, Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day, Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 30 million barrels per day"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory \"carbon pricing mechanism\" become law before 1 January 2023?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a \"carbon pricing mechanism\" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System, the California Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column \"2021 Traveler Throughput\" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "10% or less",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Games will begin",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Games will be postponed again by more than a day",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Games will be cancelled",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Games will begin, The Games will be postponed again by more than a day, The Games will be cancelled"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 23%",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 27%",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 23%, Between 23% and 27%, inclusive, More than 27%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower by more than 8%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by more than 4%",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower by more than 8%, Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive , Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% , Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "At or below 2020 levels",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher by more than 100%",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "At or below 2020 levels, Higher by between 0% and 100%, Higher by more than 100%"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?",
- "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
- "platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "10% or less",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1973-will-scott-morrison-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-australia-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament ([ABC Australia](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/scott-morrison-missteps-fuel-frustration-within-the-coalition/100022234), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/23/australias-prime-minister-vows-to-clean-up-parliament-in-wake-of-new-allegations), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56261504)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "46",
- "numforecasters": "40",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974-will-legislation-raising-the-us-federal-minimum-wage-become-law-before-20-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "numforecasters": "50",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1975-will-berlin-s-humboldt-forum-open-to-the-general-public-before-1-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-humboldt-forum-in-berlin-is-a-new-kind-of-museum), [The Local (Germany)](https://www.thelocal.de/20201216/rebuilt-prussian-palace-scarred-by-history-opens-in-berlin/), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210323-germany-extends-covid-19-restrictions-into-april-including-strict-easter-lockdown), [Humboldt Forum](https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/)). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 2 April 2021: Only indoor events would count and whether an event charges for attendance would be immaterial.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "30",
- "numforecasters": "26",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1971-will-restaurants-in-new-york-city-nyc-be-permitted-to-offer-indoor-dining-at-85-capacity-or-more-before-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic ([Spectrum News](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/12/15/mondays-with-the-mayor-nyc-full-shutdown-de-blasio-nyc-shutdown-timeline), [WABC](https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-new-york-dining-nyc-restaurants/10395226/)). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity ([nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page](https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-businesses-and-facilities.page), [nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide](https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/article/nyc-restaurant-reopening-guide)). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "162",
- "numforecasters": "137",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972-will-the-un-a-un-agency-and-or-oecd-member-country-publicly-accuse-myanmar-defense-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-using-a-toxic-chemical-against-protesters-to-cause-intentional-death-or-physical-harm-through-its-toxic-properties-before-15-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56492744)). The use of riot control agents (e.g., \"tear gas\"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law ([CWC.gov](https://www.cwc.gov/cwc_treaty_full.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-03/features/perilous-paths%C2%A0weaponizing-toxic-chemicals-law-enforcement), [Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-14/open-forum/Dangerous-Ambiguities-Regulation-of-Riot-Control-Agents-and-Incapacitants-under-the-Chemical-Weapons-Convention_Rev.1.pdf)). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21751357), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/news-briefs/us-alleges-new-syrian-chlorine-attack)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "100",
- "numforecasters": "77",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "137",
- "numforecasters": "80",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $100 billion",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$180 billion or more",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "53",
- "numforecasters": "39",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "82",
- "numforecasters": "72",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 25 March 2021: The question will close using the nominal figures as reported by FAO.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 100.0",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 130.0",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "60",
- "numforecasters": "41",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower than 1.7%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher than 3.1%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "132",
- "numforecasters": "85",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "The Father",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mank",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Minari",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nomadland",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Promising Young Woman",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sound of Metal",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "The Trial of the Chicago 7",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A tie or other outcome",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "119",
- "numforecasters": "77",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mank (David Fincher)",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A tie or other outcome",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "87",
- "numforecasters": "53",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "145",
- "numforecasters": "96",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 14.5 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 19.0 million",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "296",
- "numforecasters": "159",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "133",
- "numforecasters": "91",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "130",
- "numforecasters": "88",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $150 billion",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "85",
- "numforecasters": "49",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "200",
- "numforecasters": "111",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "77",
- "numforecasters": "47",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 150,000",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "550,000 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "241",
- "numforecasters": "85",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "169",
- "numforecasters": "96",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2 or more",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "89",
- "numforecasters": "46",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "593",
- "numforecasters": "401",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 4",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 4 and 8",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 9 and 13",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 14 and 18",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 18",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "456",
- "numforecasters": "285",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "474",
- "numforecasters": "378",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "276",
- "numforecasters": "210",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 8,000,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 14,000,000",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "350",
- "numforecasters": "216",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $0.50",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $5.00",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "92",
- "numforecasters": "32",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 5.4%",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 7.1%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "231",
- "numforecasters": "103",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "190",
- "numforecasters": "63",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "154",
- "numforecasters": "64",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "632",
- "numforecasters": "384",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "54",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "222",
- "numforecasters": "87",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "256",
- "numforecasters": "83",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "100",
- "numforecasters": "55",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an \"act of domestic terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "295",
- "numforecasters": "130",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "208",
- "numforecasters": "151",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only SpaceX",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "200",
- "numforecasters": "129",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "186",
- "numforecasters": "94",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brooklyn Nets",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Los Angeles Clippers",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Los Angeles Lakers",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Milwaukee Bucks",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another team",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "164",
- "numforecasters": "57",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "175",
- "numforecasters": "93",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "129",
- "numforecasters": "82",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "335",
- "numforecasters": "128",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "274",
- "numforecasters": "151",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the \"Cumulative Gross\" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $1.75 billion",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "185",
- "numforecasters": "84",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "111",
- "numforecasters": "63",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "106",
- "numforecasters": "71",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "253",
- "numforecasters": "91",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "173",
- "numforecasters": "102",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4b28272a39222d22282a3f222425380b2c24242f213e2f2c262e253f6528242674383e29212e283f761a3e2e383f2224256e797b08272a39222d22282a3f222425). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "425",
- "numforecasters": "204",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the \".CSV\" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "489",
- "numforecasters": "78",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "175",
- "numforecasters": "120",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "344",
- "numforecasters": "152",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?\nInformación adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "95",
- "numforecasters": "52",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 226 seats",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "300 seats or more",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "207",
- "numforecasters": "99",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "85",
- "numforecasters": "39",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 18 September 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "265",
- "numforecasters": "88",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "120",
- "numforecasters": "47",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $150 billion",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "262",
- "numforecasters": "71",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "199",
- "numforecasters": "69",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "141",
- "numforecasters": "74",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "305",
- "numforecasters": "147",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the \"Leveraged Loan Trends\" section, click on the \"Default Rate\" tab to show the \"Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)\" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "278",
- "numforecasters": "96",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "37",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "200",
- "numforecasters": "71",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "215",
- "numforecasters": "108",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.500",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 3.000",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "307",
- "numforecasters": "77",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "237",
- "numforecasters": "88",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "127",
- "numforecasters": "86",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "184",
- "numforecasters": "83",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "276",
- "numforecasters": "68",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "511",
- "numforecasters": "198",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only by the FDA",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only by the EMA",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "469",
- "numforecasters": "219",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNote 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "289",
- "numforecasters": "148",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "386",
- "numforecasters": "230",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "316",
- "numforecasters": "105",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only Michael Spavor",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "371",
- "numforecasters": "105",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "262",
- "numforecasters": "127",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "290",
- "numforecasters": "102",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "90",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the \"Bank Rate\" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "426",
- "numforecasters": "216",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file \"Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change.\" See the row designated \"10\" under \"SUMLEV\" and \"United States\" under \"NAME.\" The relevant data are titled \"INTERNATIONALMIG[year].\" For methodological information, see the \"Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population\" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "121",
- "numforecasters": "62",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "94",
- "numforecasters": "33",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $2.00",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $3.50",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "302",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only for president",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only for parliament",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, for both president and parliament",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "147",
- "numforecasters": "31",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another candidate",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "239",
- "numforecasters": "87",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" fell below 20%?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.\nThe Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "660",
- "numforecasters": "213",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 5.0%",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 8.0%",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "594",
- "numforecasters": "259",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 150,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "350,000 or more",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "550",
- "numforecasters": "223",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "376",
- "numforecasters": "213",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "246",
- "numforecasters": "128",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "348",
- "numforecasters": "189",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "357",
- "numforecasters": "171",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "369",
- "numforecasters": "92",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "258",
- "numforecasters": "66",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "343",
- "numforecasters": "177",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the \"Annual Reports on Form 10-K\" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "280",
- "numforecasters": "110",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5 or 6",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7 or 8",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "9 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "1544",
- "numforecasters": "230",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "324",
- "numforecasters": "73",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "215",
- "numforecasters": "65",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or more",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "164",
- "numforecasters": "45",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "142",
- "numforecasters": "55",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 December 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "605",
- "numforecasters": "164",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "809",
- "numforecasters": "159",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 2.00%",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 8.00%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "560",
- "numforecasters": "246",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 1.0 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1.6 million",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "531",
- "numforecasters": "96",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "221",
- "numforecasters": "66",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "435",
- "numforecasters": "164",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "England",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Italy",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Spain",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another country",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "There will not be a 2020-21 final winner",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "403",
- "numforecasters": "117",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 19 October 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 24 May 2021",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "725",
- "numforecasters": "210",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "1218",
- "numforecasters": "465",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "399",
- "numforecasters": "164",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, \"voting system\" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "358",
- "numforecasters": "162",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "765",
- "numforecasters": "169",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "927",
- "numforecasters": "170",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "214",
- "numforecasters": "80",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "333",
- "numforecasters": "77",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "678",
- "numforecasters": "190",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed \"as of,\" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.\nNOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "2 or fewer",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or more",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "486",
- "numforecasters": "100",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 25,000",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 250,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "389",
- "numforecasters": "126",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "327",
- "numforecasters": "113",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered \"powered\" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery\nNOTE 2 October 2020: For purposes of this question, a \"passenger vehicle\" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1 or 2",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3 or 4",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5 or 6",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "294",
- "numforecasters": "83",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Before 1 January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "940",
- "numforecasters": "328",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "306",
- "numforecasters": "140",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "691",
- "numforecasters": "146",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to \"face criminal charges\" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, a firm",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, a paid backup driver",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "260",
- "numforecasters": "99",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, a firm, Yes, a paid backup driver, Yes, both, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 2.2 million",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.0 million",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "274",
- "numforecasters": "60",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab. First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to be only \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 5,300",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 6,500",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "245",
- "numforecasters": "48",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, the Olympics only",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, the Paralympics only",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "2356",
- "numforecasters": "955",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "251",
- "numforecasters": "113",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 700,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 2,200,000",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "311",
- "numforecasters": "84",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph \"Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)\" when the filter for \"Charger type\" is set to \"Fast (>22kW)\" and the filters at the top of the page are set to \"European Union\" and \"2022\".\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 25,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 30,000 but less than 35,000",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 40,000",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "290",
- "numforecasters": "77",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000 but less than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3 or more",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "406",
- "numforecasters": "224",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "196",
- "numforecasters": "90",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was \"a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh\" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $80 per kWh",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than $140 per kWh",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "296",
- "numforecasters": "98",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh"
- },
- {
- "title": "What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 2.5%",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 8.5%",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "455",
- "numforecasters": "153",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.\nPlease note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "272",
- "numforecasters": "98",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.\nPlease note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "314",
- "numforecasters": "136",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04901960784313725,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9509803921568627,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes, more than 121",
- "probability": 0.24742268041237112,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No, not more than 121",
- "probability": 0.7525773195876287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, more than 121, No, not more than 121"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pierre de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.12745098039215685,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.5490196078431372,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Piolle",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another woman",
- "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another man",
- "probability": 0.1764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Pierre de Villiers, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Eric Piolle, Another woman, Another man"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Macron and Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neither of them",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Macron and Le Pen, Macron, but not Le Pen, Le Pen, but not Macron, Neither of them"
- },
- {
- "title": "On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Later in 2021",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not in 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "In June, 2021 (as planned), Later in 2021, Not in 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Japan",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same medals count",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "France, Japan, Same medals count"
- },
- {
- "title": "In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nov-Dec, 2020",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "January 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "February 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "March 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "April 2021",
- "probability": 0.010101010101010102,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "May 2021",
- "probability": 0.0707070707070707,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "June 2021",
- "probability": 0.2727272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe after June 2021",
- "probability": 0.6464646464646465,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nov-Dec, 2020, January 2021, February 2021, March 2021, Maybe later, April 2021, May 2021, June 2021, Maybe after June 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "In May or earlier",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in June (government goal)",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in July",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in August",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/)",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "In May or earlier, in June (government goal), in July, in August, Maybe later"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9207920792079207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
- "probability": 0.08888888888888889,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane",
- "probability": 0.07777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else from PJD",
- "probability": 0.05555555555555555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else not from PJD",
- "probability": 0.7777777777777779,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered \"from PJD\".",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani, Abdelilah Benkirane, Someone else from PJD, Someone else not from PJD"
- },
- {
- "title": "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "> 148 (more than currently)",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "128 (absolute majority) to 148 ",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "< 128",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "> 148 (more than currently), 128 (absolute majority) to 148 , < 128"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4296875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5703125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mathias Dzon",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Denis Sassou Nguesso, Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas, Mathias Dzon, Someone else, No election in 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Idriss Déby Itno",
- "probability": 0.951923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Saleh Kezabo",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Succès Masra",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Idriss Déby Itno, Saleh Kezabo, Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo, Succès Masra, Someone else, No election in 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed",
- "probability": 0.9021739130434783,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro",
- "probability": 0.010869565217391304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.010869565217391304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.010869565217391304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 0.06521739130434782,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Abshir Aden Ferro, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Someone else, No election in 2021"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.26262626262626265,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.4242424242424243,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.18181818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.13131313131313133,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the \"Number of commercial flights...\" chart.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Q1, 2021 (or before), Q2, 2021, Q3, 2021, Q4, 2021, Maybe later"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another Likud politician",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another politician not from Likud",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Benjamin Netanyahu, Another Likud politician, Another politician not from Likud"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Not worse than 2020",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Worse than the 2012 record, Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012, Not worse than 2020"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
- "probability": 0.2767857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
- "probability": 0.4017857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A member of SPD",
- "probability": 0.044642857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A member of the Green party",
- "probability": 0.23214285714285715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Marcus Söder (CSU), Armin Laschet (CDU), Another member of CDU/CSU, A member of SPD, A member of the Green party, Someone else"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "in Q1, 2021",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.4095238095238095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.17142857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "in Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.18095238095238095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Perhaps later",
- "probability": 0.23809523809523805,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "in Q1, 2021, in Q2, 2021, in Q3, 2021, in Q4, 2021, Perhaps later"
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "USA, France, Germany, United Kingdom"
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "France",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "USA, France, Germany, United Kingdom"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "≥ 32,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "≤ 28,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "≥ 32,000, ≤ 28,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "≥ 6,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "≤ 5,000",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "≥ 6,000, ≤ 5,000"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the new Bond film \"No Time to Die\" be released in 2021?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9509803921568627,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04901960784313725,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?",
- "url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?\"\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.\n",
- "options": [],
- "Percentage": "none",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.\n",
- "options": [],
- "Percentage": "none",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. \nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.\n",
- "options": [],
- "Percentage": "none",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?",
- "url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
- "platform": "Hypermind",
- "description": "This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's \"primary\" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).* \nThe relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (\"no measures\") rises at 45 or more in the \"7 days average\" version of the graph.\nIf OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of \"no measures for workplace closures.\" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.\n*For this question, \"no measures for workplace closures\" will correspond to a 0 for the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..\n",
- "options": [],
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Election Winner",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "Ladbrokes",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.07859141097452663,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jnr",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.010557055205533428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.03368203327479713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.010557055205533428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.041607217574749396,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Oprah Winfrey",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Clooney",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.013869072524916466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michelle Obama",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dwayne Johnson",
- "probability": 0.013869072524916466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Zuckerberg",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.14146453975414797,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kanye West",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tulsi Gabbard",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Meghan Markle",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Gaetz",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.15718282194905325,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Bloomberg",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.013869072524916466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Gates",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Rogan",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.013869072524916466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.03368203327479713,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Kennedy Iii",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Baker",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Beto O'Rourke",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.013869072524916466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.010557055205533428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Klobuchar",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nina Turner",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Stacey Abrams",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Crenshaw",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Christie",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.013869072524916466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.010557055205533428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Condoleezza Rice",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katie Porter",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.010557055205533428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Killer Mike",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Val Demings",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keisha Lance Bottoms",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Rice",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.013869072524916466,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George P Bush",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alveda King",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Candace Owens",
- "probability": 0.010557055205533428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Cuban",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tammy Duckworth",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Abbott",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elon Musk",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Ryan",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Kasich",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Bass",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gavin Newsom",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kimberly Guilfoyle",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Grenell",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kayleigh McEnany",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chelsea Clinton",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann Coulter",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rand Paul",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Collins",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cory Booker",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sidney Powell",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marjorie Taylor Greene",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Ossoff",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.020803608787374698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Kushner",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gabriel Sterling",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Amash",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Lindell",
- "probability": 0.0028180187202021503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Justice",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John James",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Sasse",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Palin",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Bezos",
- "probability": 0.007003195037334057,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Sanders",
- "probability": 0.003519018401844476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jnr, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nikki Haley, Oprah Winfrey, George Clooney, Pete Buttigieg, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, Dwayne Johnson, Mark Zuckerberg, Joe Biden, Andrew Yang, Kanye West, Tulsi Gabbard, Meghan Markle, Bernie Sanders, Matt Gaetz, Kamala Harris, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, Bill Gates, Joe Rogan, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Joe Kennedy Iii, Charlie Baker, Beto O'Rourke, Ted Cruz, Mitt Romney, Amy Klobuchar, Nina Turner, Stacey Abrams, Dan Crenshaw, Chris Christie, Tucker Carlson, Andrew Cuomo, Josh Hawley, Condoleezza Rice, Katie Porter, Tom Cotton, Killer Mike, Val Demings, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Susan Rice, Mike Pompeo, George P Bush, Alveda King, Candace Owens, Mark Cuban, Tim Scott, Tammy Duckworth, Greg Abbott, Elon Musk, Larry Hogan, Paul Ryan, John Kasich, Karen Bass, Gavin Newsom, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Richard Grenell, Kayleigh McEnany, Chelsea Clinton, Ann Coulter, Rand Paul, Gretchen Whitmer, Susan Collins, Cory Booker, Sidney Powell, Marjorie Taylor Greene, John Ossoff, Kristi Noem, Jared Kushner, Gabriel Sterling, Justin Amash, Mike Lindell, Jim Justice, John James, Ben Sasse, Sarah Palin, Jeff Bezos, Sarah Sanders"
- },
- {
- "title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Republican Nominee",
- "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
- "platform": "Ladbrokes",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.027935191955199012,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.18157874770879356,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.055870383910398023,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.09078937385439678,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.0345864281350083,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matt Gaetz",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.027935191955199012,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jnr",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.027935191955199012,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.027935191955199012,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Baker",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.0345864281350083,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.021362205612799244,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Crenshaw",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kanye West",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Christie",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Devin Nunes",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Abbott",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Ryan",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kimberly Guilfoyle",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.027935191955199012,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Grenell",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kayleigh McEnany",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rand Paul",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Kushner",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Trump",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.0036135074170904192,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Kasich",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Collins",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sidney Powell",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.04272441122559849,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.0807016656483527,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gabriel Sterling",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Lindell",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marjorie Taylor Greene",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Justice",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John James",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ben Sasse",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Palin",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Candace Owens",
- "probability": 0.021362205612799244,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.014241470408532828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Sanders",
- "probability": 0.007191237533021528,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tom Cotton, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Matt Gaetz, Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jnr, Marco Rubio, Tucker Carlson, Charlie Baker, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Dan Crenshaw, Kanye West, Chris Christie, Devin Nunes, Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Paul Ryan, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Mike Pompeo, Richard Grenell, Kayleigh McEnany, Rand Paul, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, Lara Trump, John Kasich, Susan Collins, Sidney Powell, Kristi Noem, Rick Scott, Ron DeSantis, Gabriel Sterling, Mike Lindell, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Jim Justice, John James, Ben Sasse, Sarah Palin, Candace Owens, Tim Scott, Sarah Sanders"
- },
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- "description": "The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.\nThese electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:\n--- \n[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.\n--- \n[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.\nPlurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.\nThis question asks:\nIn the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?\nResolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. \n--- \nStates using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as \"plurality\", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.\n--- \nStates which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.\n--- \nIf the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-03T11:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n",
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-11-13T08:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
- "numforecasts": 492,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.\nHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) \nIn late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. \nThe next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.\nWhat percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?\nThe question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. \nIn the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.\nIf the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. \nIf the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.\nIf the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nA candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-18T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 231,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6922/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n",
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
- "numforecasts": 634,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated.\nThis question asks:\nHow much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100.\nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as the total amount donated during its existence. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Donations from all athletes who count as having taken the pledge at the time of their donation will count, regardless of what later happens either to the athlete or the minimum recommended pledge. \n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 376,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)).\nIf success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.\nMoreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.\nHow many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more. \nFor a company to qualify as a \"clean meat company\" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\" or \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.\nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nThe resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.\nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 273,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 702,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 743,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
- "numforecasts": 391,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n",
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 260,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n",
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 545,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.\nHere, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?\nNote that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.\nClosing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
- "numforecasts": 331,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n",
- "numforecasts": 361,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
- "numforecasts": 880,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "numforecasts": 222,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 510,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n",
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
- "numforecasts": 592,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 521,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
- "numforecasts": 978,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n",
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 336,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 345,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 385,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n",
- "numforecasts": 279,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T18:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 280,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 467,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \">\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\nThere have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100. \nOR\nThere have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100. \nOR\nRay Kurzweil lives to the age of 120. \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 319,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 413,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1074,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n",
- "numforecasts": 145,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T19:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:43:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. \nOne of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. \nACE explicitly includes \"the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)\" as part of \"Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture\", one of their seven [evaluation criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to [Encompass](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ePDKZMpoGdx7J3PBh/announcing-our-summer-2020-ace-movement-grants#Encompass___35_000_). \nWill ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?\nWhether an event is a \"scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination\" will be resolved per the [\"I know it when I see it\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 482,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \">2050-09-05\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-09-05T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
- "numforecasts": 169,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 758,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will PHP die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 231,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2031\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 258,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n---Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship. \n---In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020. \n---In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)). \n---France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients). \n---The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used. \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.\nWill the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 325,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 267,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-29T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-11T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 277,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 374,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.\nThis question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?\nQuestion resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\nSeasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\nProponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\nNo one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\nAs an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\nThe first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.\nWill there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dogecoin reach a value of $1 by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 395,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n",
- "numforecasts": 320,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 201,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.\nHow many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?\nFor reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.\n* Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-08T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "World Population in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 317,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177.\nHow many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?\nThis question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A \"patient\" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
- "numforecasts": 577,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
- "numforecasts": 278,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\nWill the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "numforecasts": 229,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1113,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
- "numforecasts": 598,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 286,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n",
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).\nIf Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
- "numforecasts": 281,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 570,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "numforecasts": 280,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 260,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 285,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T08:05:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n",
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 2875,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-14T12:50:36Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-17T12:50:36Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
- "numforecasts": 1298,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 525,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
- "numforecasts": 284,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nMetaculus predicts that we will cross the [2 degree Celsius threshold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/) for climate change by 2043. After the US’s [separation from the Paris Agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930312701/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement) this year in 2020, the federal government allocated [0.8% of their total budget](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) to protecting the environment and our natural resources, at a total value of only $77 million dollars. In 2017, while the US still remained in the Paris Agreement, the budget represented 1% of the total, still an extremely small value in comparison to federal spending on a number of other significant issues. \nHow much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:05:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm).\nIn the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en).\nYet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish.\nSimilarly, in the U.S., the [Humane Slaughter Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act) requires animals should be stunned into unconsciousness prior to their slaughter but this excludes poultry, fish, rabbits. \nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nThe [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nAccording to an appropriately named expert on fish stunning, van de Vis, [currently 3 to 4% of farmed fish stunned globally](https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/185/3/70).\nWhat percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide will be estimated to be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide estimated to be stunned in the first calendar year between 2027 and 2032 (inclusive) for which both credible estimates of the number of fish stunned worldwide in aquacultural production are available, and credible estimates for the total number of fish produced by aquacultural production are available.\nFor the purpose of this question, credible estimates, should be those in research deemed sufficiently rigorous and reliable for an admin to judge that there is ≥90% chance for the true number to be within 25% of the median of the estimate. \nStunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food, such as by percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. \nIn case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute.\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n",
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes.\nHow many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?\nThis question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-10T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 347,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1377,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n",
- "numforecasts": 546,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 258,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.\nIn 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1).\nWill India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?\nResolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6969/when-will-gwp-exceed-1-quadrillion-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-04-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
- "numforecasts": 296,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 309,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2250-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 290,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-26T22:24:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T22:24:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6880/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nPrevious Questions:\n[Change in US Durable Goods Orders April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-28T19:09:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n",
- "numforecasts": 880,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T18:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n",
- "numforecasts": 492,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve?\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.\n",
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 305,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n",
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 359,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6877/cpi-u--change-for-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-12T22:49:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-06T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).\nApple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).\nTo put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.\nWhen will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T18:52:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-18T17:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-24T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 730,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):\nFormer White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.\nThe charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others \"orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors\".\nThe indictment claims the \"scheme\" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.\n[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).\nThe official charges are as follows:\n1-- \nBRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”\n2-- \nThose representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.\nWill Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?\n---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). \n---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 329,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their \"Color of the Year\", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022.\nWhat will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?\nThe question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/).\nThe announcement of the color typically occurs around early December, but the date is not certain, so the question will retroactively close 24 hours before the announcement is made.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following occur:\n---Pantone announces multiple Colors of the Year (as it did for 2016 and 2021). \n---Pantone fails (for any reason) to announce a Color of the Year for 2022 before 2021-12-31. \n---At the time of closing, Encycolorpedia does not have an entry for the color selected as Color of the Year, or the entry does not provide a Hue. \n---The hue reported by Encycolorpedia is outside the range 0-360 (inclusive). \n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWhat will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?\nResolution\nThe question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:\n---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 \n---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 \n---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 \n---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 \n---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 \n---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.\nFor this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?\nHere are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:\n--- \nIn June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.\n--- \nIn November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.\nDevelopment over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)\nWhat sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?\nResolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T19:09:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5672/how-will-donald-trump-rank-among-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Donald Trump is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nPlease note that there have already been two prominent historical rankings of presidents which have included Donald Trump. [One](https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Presidents-2018-Rank-by-Category.pdf) gave him a rank of 42/44 and [another](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/19/opinion/how-does-trump-stack-up-against-the-best-and-worst-presidents.html) gave him a rank of 44/44 (though only 40/44 when you ask only Republican scholars).\nHow will Donald Trump rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Donald Trump in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Donald Trump. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Trump. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:37:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-19T22:37:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n",
- "numforecasts": 290,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
- "numforecasts": 295,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/02/03/student-loan-debt-statistics/?sh=2341eaad281f),\nThere are 45 million borrowers who collectively owe nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.\nFrom [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/student-loan-forgiveness-may-come-with-tax-bomb-heres-what-you-should-know.html),\nStudent loan forgiveness is looking more like a possibility under President-elect Joe Biden, but an unintended consequence may emerge unless Washington intervenes: a tax on loan forgiveness.\nBiden has proposed creating a new program that would offer borrowers $10,000 of student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.\nSens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have also said that the next president could wipe as much as $50,000 from borrowers’ balances via an executive order.\nThe US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the [Public Service Loan Forgiveness](https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service) program. The [most recent data](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data) shows that the federal government forgave $347,935,412 for the month of September 2020.\nHow many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data [here](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data), downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application\" and \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. \n1--Venus. \n2--Mars. \n3--Europa. \n4--Ganymede. \n5--Another moon of Jupiter. \n6--Enceladus. \n7--Titan. \n8--Another moon of Saturn. \n9--A dwarf planet. \n10-An asteroid. \n11-Another place in the Solar System. \nResolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-04-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-24T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 548,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n",
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n",
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
- "numforecasts": 307,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 594,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
- "numforecasts": 218,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. \nHealth-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. \nWhile unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.\nHow many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:31:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:31:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n",
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
- "numforecasts": 505,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:14:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1265,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).\nA recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.\nSummaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).\nThis question asks:\nBefore 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.\nIn the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.\nIf an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.\nThis resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. \n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\nThe day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\nOur custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 272,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will One Piece end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 324,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n",
- "numforecasts": 198,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 367,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 253,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n",
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).\nIn the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).\nFortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.\nWhen will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.\nExamples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). \nThe specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.\nIf the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as \"> Oct 2, 2035\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n",
- "numforecasts": 434,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.\n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-05T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-15T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. \nAs such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken?\nWhen will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?\nThis question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with >30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-28T15:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-04T15:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).\nWhen will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?\nThis question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.\nIf it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.\nIf it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) \"the market value of all the final goods and services produced\". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.\nOne notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).\nDenmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?\nResolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 442,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 289,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-12-31T22:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-12-31T22:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\"](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm) according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (>30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. \nWill Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nThis question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of the Eurozone as of February 10 2019 (that is, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain) cease to use the Euro as its official currency? \nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n",
- "numforecasts": 275,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. \nAs [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports:\n“Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” \nForecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orbit are affected by an increased atmospheric drag. Moreover, [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) and CMEs during the period surrounding solar maximum can severely damage satellite electronics and present degradations to a variety of communications technologies. \nOn what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maxima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-11T02:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:16:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n",
- "numforecasts": 286,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?\nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-07-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-05T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy)\nOpen Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?\nCari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.\nAs of 2020, Open Phil [has donated a little over $1 billion](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants), almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?\nMoney donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.\nBy the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2623-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n",
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "numforecasts": 169,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: \n“ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” \nBeisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten times as frequent at the solar maxima than at the minimum](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent). \n[CMEs allow for solar wind and particles to escape the sun and move towards Earth](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming), which can cause geo-magnetic storms and auroral displays. \nWhat will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution criteria will be provided by the [SOHO LASCO CME catalog](https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) provided by the CDAW data center by NASA and the Catholic University of America with the Naval Research Laboratory. The size of the CME will be determined by its kinetic energy (KE). This question will resolve ambiguously if no data is available, or it is incalculable due to missing values.\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T02:34:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zł464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zł462.00 four months earlier.\n[Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning)](https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2020/12/call-transcript_en.pdf), contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zł238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack).\nWill CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the stock price of CDR reaches zł462.00 or greater, at any time during regular trading hours, by the end of 2021, as indicated on [TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/GPW-CDR/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 291,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as >2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 321,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-29T21:53:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.\nThis question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?\nThis question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-25T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will zettascale computing be achieved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-01-02T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-04T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. Its holdings include Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, amongst others.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14, in nominal USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2021-06-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be given in nominal USD.\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.).\nSince approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein:\nRoughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed.\nIn the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?\nResolution\nEstimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food & Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:24:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-10T22:24:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
- "numforecasts": 211,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.\nEarlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.\nThis [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context: \nIt is incredibly rare for a 3-year-old to even grasp the rules of chess, let alone play at a high level. Misha Osipov is not a grandmaster or even a master-level player, but he is still strong enough to beat many club-level adult players. His rating is high enough to place him among the top 20 of American players under the age of 7. None of those players is under the age of 5. \nFor more context, consider that the [youngest ever person](https://new.uschess.org/news/christopher-yoo-breaks-record-for-youngest-ever-master/) to achieve the chess master ranking was 9 year old David Yoo in 2016.\nWhen, if ever, will Misha become a chess master?\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-06T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters of the recall have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to require a recall election. In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot.\nThe Constitution of California allows for recall elections to be held, if petitioners can collect signatures equal to 12% of the number of votes cast in the last election. In 2018, 12,464,235 total votes were cast in the governor's race.\nThe current recall petition has currently collected [495 thousand](https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/newsom-heatlie-sixth.pdf) signatures out of the 1.5 million needed.\nWill California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ?\nThis question resolves positive if the California Secretary of State certifies that a recall petition has reached the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall. This question is for any recall effort which is sucessfully submitted by March 31, 2022, even if the current petition does not reach the required signatures.\nThe counting of the signatures and verification may take longer than March 31, 2022 to be confirmed. \n",
- "numforecasts": 880,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T18:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-15T17:15:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nBoulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.\nColorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.\nHow many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T23:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:48:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-11-10T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:\n1-- \nThe US government\n2-- \nSpaceX\n3-- \nAnother government\n4-- \nAnother corporation or private organization\n5-- \nOther (somehow)\nAlthough Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the \"weight\" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.\nResolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.\nCloses retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.\n",
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n",
- "numforecasts": 309,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
- "numforecasts": 244,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n",
- "numforecasts": 442,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "numforecasts": 229,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-07T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
- "numforecasts": 538,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added\n",
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK hold its next general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T22:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many of the \"priority paths\" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-31T14:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n",
- "numforecasts": 277,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n",
- "numforecasts": 464,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths.\nCryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible.\nChances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops.\nI thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the next 30 years:\nWhat percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2133-06-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
- "numforecasts": 589,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nBy 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? \nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 865,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\nWill Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?\n---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. \n---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. \n---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. \n---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. \n",
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-14T11:12:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-02T00:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-09T01:45:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year.\nHow much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nThe estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/files/sci-tech/clean-meat-production-volume-and-medium-cost.pdf). \nFor the purpose of this question, we shall adopt the following definition of Plant-Based Meat (based on [GFI, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/new-gfi-report-illustrates-the-state-of-chinas)):\n“plant-based meat” is taken to refer to plant-based products that aim to be direct replacements for animal meat by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of animal meat, and are marketed as doing such.\nA plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. \nFor singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. \nFor larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a \"plant-based meat\" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words \"plant-based meat\" or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"plant-based beef\" or \"plant-based burger\"), and/or variations where \"plant\" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. \"pea-based meat\" or \"soy-protein based chicken\").\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is between $8 and $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is less than $8 or greater than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $8 or above $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will a world war begin before January 1st 2151?\nWe define a world war as a war that either, \n---involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. OR \n---involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. \nThe beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.\nShould there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.\nGiven the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind.\nStill, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has been set to January 1st 2161, to provide for 10 years after January 1st 2151.\n",
- "numforecasts": 373,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question simply asks:\nWhen will the first baby be born away from Earth?\nThe question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at >2120.\nSimilar questions:\n---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2119-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [\"nones\" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity.\nPer a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there):\n1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second).\nAt the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% by mid-century. One obvious reason is that \n[r]eligions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. ...[R]eligiously unaffiliated population[s], by contrast, [are] heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.\nImportantly, Pew's projections have not attempted to wade into controversial social theories suggesting that economic development and religiosity are inversely linked. As the report explains, this has been the \"general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe,\" but it is \"not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.\" Indeed, there is [some evidence](https://www.smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/understanding-rapid-rise-charismatic-christianity-southeast-asia) that amongst China's 1.4 billion citizens, increasing affluence may be correlated with or even driving increasing religiosity.\nConsidering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's projections: \nWhat will the portion of the global population identifying as \"religiously unaffiliated\" be in 2050? \nThe resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for \"religiously unaffiliated\" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).\n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&view=map&year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T01:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-02T02:50:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n",
- "numforecasts": 430,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).\nThis question asks:\nWill more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?\nResolution will be by credible media reports. Only deliberate nuclear attacks by nations count for the purpose of resolution. Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 216,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.\nWhat will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:36:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nHow many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.\nThis question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?\nThis question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.\nThe question resolves as >2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.\n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 695,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.\nBut will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654).\nWhat will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? \nWe will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, [ems](http://ageofem.com/), genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count. \nResolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.\nInspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-17T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2069-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2074-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\nWill a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n",
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3428/philpapers-survey-mini-series-consciousness-of-future-ai-systems/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the view that future AI systems will be conscious?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"future AI systems\" on the question \"for which groups are some members conscious?\" (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.\nAs of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08). As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%\nWhen will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?\nThis resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the [National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&pageSEL=sect_01_table.05.html) or any other reputable source of medical statistics.\nClarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according [to NIH data](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08).\n",
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-18T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-06-23T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-29T20:16:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:\n---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. \nvs.\n---Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments. \nSocial scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict – a conflict that is contributing to [a decrease in political civility](https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94). Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. \nThis is the topic of [Marvin Minsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky)'s final advice to predictors:\nIt seems to me that the most important discovery since Gödel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but it’s got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\n— Marvin Minsky [Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding](https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403) World Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014\nFor some insight, you can watch the Nature video [\"Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist\"](https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8) based on [H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, “Causal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,” Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0)\nQuestion: Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among [macrosociology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology) models? \nA paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nIt compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.\n2-- \nIt has the keywords \"macrosociology\" or \"macroeconomic\" or some obvious derivation of these such as \"macrosocial\" or \"macroeconomics\".\n3-- \nIt defines \"size\" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of \"length\" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a [self-extracting archive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive) of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of \"size\" is used to award cash in [The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge](http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm) and is also used as a [a language modeling benchmark](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize). \n4-- \nIt defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.\n5-- \nIt is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-20T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n",
- "numforecasts": 215,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus).\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from the value on [Euromomo site once](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3541/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-21T13:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n",
- "numforecasts": 191,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill some sentient being ever collect this craft and listen to the Golden Record? This creature could be a genuine ET or a future descendent of humans. (XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\nGiven that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/artificial-drives-real-roads-vs-real-drivers-artificial-roads/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:\n1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) \n2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.\nOption 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. \nNote that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (\"Pokemon auto\"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.\nThe question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-15T15:16:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.\nWill Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). \nIf the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 476,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 301,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, \nhow much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Caloric restriction is,\na dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. \"Reduce\" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.\nAssume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?\nFor the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that\n--- \nDid not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction\n--- \nQuit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. \n--- \nBegan caloric restriction after the age of 50.\nOf the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-15T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
- "numforecasts": 370,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:07:38Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T21:06:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will North Korea become a democracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&LangID=E), \"the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.\" The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. \nNorth Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.\nJanuary 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves > in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.\n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-08-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 282,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [\"A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology\".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html)\nThe respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity.\nAn individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals.\nThe design calls for twelve pumping stations to be spaced evenly along an equatorial circle. Each station has its own independent glucose-metabolizing powerplant, glucose tank, environmental glucose sensors, and glucose sorting rotors. Each station alone can generate sufficient energy to power the entire respirocyte, and has an array of 3-stage molecular sorting rotor assemblies for pumping O2, CO2, and H2O from the ambient medium into an interior chamber, and vice versa. The number of rotor sorters in each array is determined both by performance requirements and by the anticipated concentration of each target molecule in the bloodstream.\nThe equatorial pumping station network occupies ~50% of respirocyte surface. On the remaining surface, a universal \"bar code\" consisting of concentric circular patterns of shallow rounded ridges is embossed on each side, centered on the \"north pole\" and \"south pole\" of the device. This coding permits easy product identification by an attending physician with a small blood sample and access to an electron microscope, and may also allow rapid reading by other more sophisticated medical nanorobots which might be deployed in the future.\nThe promise of artificial mechanical red cells is that it gives physicians the ability to precisely control saturation curve profiles independently for oxygen and carbon dioxide, either to maximize gas transport efficiency or to meet specialized demand functions imposed by emergency situations, unusual activities, or specific medical treatments.\nRespirocytes are an example of molecular nanotechnology, a field of technology still in the very earliest, purely hypothetical phase of development. Current technology is not sufficient to build a respirocyte due to considerations of power, atomic-scale manipulation, immune reaction or toxicity, computation and communication. Creation of this kind of device would require multiple technological breakthroughs. For further information on respirocytes, see e.g. [this essay by Freitas.](http://www.kurzweilai.net/respirocytes)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?\nResolves positively upon the publication of an article in a respectable scientific journal indicating that such devices have been successfully used in a living mammal to meaningfully augment and or replace (partially or totally) the existing supply of red blood cells. A meaningful augmentation is an augmentation resulting in a non-trivial increase in overall performance of the existing red cell population. These respirocytes will need to be perform at least some gas transport function, and be principally the product of nanotechnology techniques, including (but not limited to) those outlined by [Freitas' article](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html). This therefore excludes transfusions of modified red blood cells from existing organisms. Finally, the mammal needs to survive at least 7 days after the introduction of the respirocytes.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nClosing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. \nWeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.\nAccording to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. \nAs WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. \nPredictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.\nWhen will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:34:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have enacted stimulus packages that have incurred [significant debt](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/29/coronavirus-downturn-likely-to-add-to-high-government-debt-in-some-countries/) at the same time that GDP is shrinking due to the pandemic. [Austria](https://www.reuters.com/article/health-oronavirus-austria-debt/austria-expects-debt-to-gdp-ratio-of-more-than-90-this-year-kurz-says-idUSV9N2BU00L) and the [UK](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-debt-exceeds-gdp-for-first-time-in-60-years-g6lgcbzp9), for example, both expect substantial increases in debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of these two factors.\n[The United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) reached a debt-to-GDP ratio of 118.9% during WWII, which fell sharply afterwards, but has increased in recent decades, to 106.9% in 2019.\nWhat will the US debt-to-GDP ratio be at its maximum between now and the end of 2023?\nThe question resolves as the highest debt-to-GDP ratio between the opening of this question and the end of 2023, when all values through 2023 have been published by the [St. Louis Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "20 more languages extinct by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/322/20-more-languages-extinct-by-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Linguists estimate that humans use around [7,000](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages. Only a few are considered global or widespread languages. The others, although spoken by small regional groups, are often key to the identity and heritage of their respective cultures.\nOnly 102 languages are considered \"International\" or \"National\" and are spoken by [60% of the world's population](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status), despite comprising only 1.4% of all documented modern languages. Globalization, including internet connectivity, international trade, and international travel elevate the importance of these top languages, particularly the six languages with [the most speakers](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/size): Chinese, Spanish, English, Arabic, Hindi, and Portuguese. \nGlobalization can [endanger languages](http://motherboard.vice.com/read/globalization-is-a-leading-factor-in-the-death-of-minority-languages) as well because rising generations learn regional and national languages instead of local or traditional dialects. Estimates of endangered languages range from around [20%](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) to around [50%](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) of all documented languages. Hundreds of languages have already been lost, and the current language death rate is between [four](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) and [six](http://www.ethnologue.com/about) languages per year. [Ethnologue](http://www.ethnologue.com/), an annual report on language status, reports that 360 languages reported as \"living\" in their first 1951 report have since been classified as \"extinct.\" [423](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages are considered [\"nearly extinct,\"](http://www.ethnologue.com/about/language-status) meaning that the only user are aging speakers who have little opportunity to use the language in everyday life.\nBut technology can also help preserve and revitalize languages, with digital documentation and [language resources](http://www.endangeredlanguages.com/) aiming to save some of the most critically endangered languages. Linguists also track languages that are \"reawakening,\" including [seven](http://www.ethnologue.com/country/US/status) in the United States currently enjoying a resurgence.\nWill language loss rates increase by the end of the decade?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the 2021 edition of Ethnologue lists more than 380 extinct languages since 1951, which would indicate a language loss rate greater than four per year, and an acceleration in language loss.\n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-09-04T20:55:39Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T19:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T19:04:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.\nEver since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:\nsome efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.\nThe article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:\nObtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.\nA new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”\nAnother attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.\nWhen will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?\n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-03-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n",
- "numforecasts": 178,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "numforecasts": 260,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).\nIn a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;\nParameter Distribution:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nI thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equation.\nSome of the paper's (and see also [this presentation](http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf)) choices for parameter distributions are surprising such as which is unlikely to resolve to be significantly less than 1, unless I'm mistaken.\nIt would also be fun to see if the distribution of resolutions to Drake's Equation derived using Metaculus-determined parameter distribution, would match the distribution produced by directly asking Metaculus how Drake's Equation will resolve. \nIn this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n",
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire. \nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's Democracy Index rating is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by Freedom House, and as \"repressed\" in the Index of Economic Freedom.\nIn recent years, particularly since [Russia made military incursions into Ukraine in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [annexed Crimea,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) a number ([1, ](https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2018/07/how-russia-could-test-nato-warns-former-us-army-europe-commander/149530/)[2, ](https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/18/is-russia-practicing-a-dry-run-for-an-invasion-of-belarus/)[3, ](https://jamestown.org/program/belarus-receives-alarming-signals-from-both-east-and-west/)[4, ](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ready-putins-invasion-belarus-russian-forces-are-gathering-664225)[5](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/19/fears-grow-russian-military-drills-in-belarus-are-moscows-next-crimea.html)) of observers have raised the possibility that Russia may in the near future invade or annex Belarus.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?\nThis question resolves positively if, before that date, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.\n",
- "numforecasts": 380,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket exceeds $8. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves above $8 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n",
- "numforecasts": 294,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human be born on another world?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n",
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2499-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 655,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T17:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:34:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-15T22:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The great recession of 2007-2009 was the longest lasting contraction in the US economy since 1929, [lasting 18 months, peak to trough](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). \nThe good news is that the banking systems are probably more resilient than a decade ago, when the crisis struck, due to improved capital and liquidity regulations. Moreover, we now have an improved familiarity with the policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves aimed at lowering interest and stimulating expenditure. \nHowever, with low policy rates, there is little room for monetary policy to manoeuvre in a recession without considerable creativity. Moreover, the fiscal policy outlook might be worrisome as well. Congress may have less room than it did during the Great Recession, with the country’s debt burden as a share of the overall economic output rising from [63 percent to 105 percent](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp), and the US deficit to GDP now being [4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007](US deficit to GDP is 4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007).\nIf the US goes into a recession before 2032, how many months will the economic contraction (from peak to trough) last?\nA recession is here taken to be a two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. The duration of the contraction is taken to be the number of months from peak to trough in economic performance, as defined by the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html) to be a combination of real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI). This question will be closed retroactively at the end of the second quarter of decline in real GDP.\nData on durations of historical contractions in the US economy may be found at the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).\nEdit: (20/02/19): if the US enters multiple recessions before 2032, this question will refer to the duration of the first one.\n",
- "numforecasts": 584,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-12-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\nWhat the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the egg-laying flock that are in any cage-free category in June 2025, according to figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For the number of egg-laying hens that are in any cage-free category, we shall use the the estimated \"layer flock size\" of \"all cage-free layers\" for the month July ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/rj4304553?locale=en) in early August). For the total number of egg layers, we use the USDA estimate of the number layers producing table or market type eggs ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n?locale=en)).\n",
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).\nWill oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?\nThis question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).\n",
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n",
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:10:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch \"Manhattan project\" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. \nA [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the \"lead up\" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be \"on the runway\"?\nAs an assessment of that question, we ask here:\nWhen will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? \nWe'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:\n1-- \nIt has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and\n2-- \nIt is constituted so as to generate a single \"flagship\" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and\n3-- \nThere is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.\n\n\nSome fine print:\n--- \nQuestion will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.\n--- \nThe project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups.\n--- \nFunding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. \n--- \nNote that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)\n--- \nThere is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.\n--- \nResolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.\n--- \nIn the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST) is an [bus-sized](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/JWST_people.jpg) telescope designed to replace the ageing [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). It is very cool.\nIn 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been [rescheduled many times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues). As of the first of March 2019, [NASA expects](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-completes-webb-telescope-review) to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.\nQuestion: When will the JWST be launched?\nThis resolves when the JWST is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the JWST reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) through [any other mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch). The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that JWST is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been called \"JWST\", has a 6.5 meters honeycomb mirror, and is put either to L2 or L3, counts as the JWST. However the final telescope needs to be sent in a single piece accounting for >90% of its mass, otherwise this resolves ambiguous.\n[This closed binary question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/613/will-the-james-webb-telescope-launch-prior-to-2020/) asked if the JWST would be launched before 2020. It closed in July 2018 at 1%.\n[This still open question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/) asks if the JWST will be a success, conditional on launching.\n",
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-17T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-08-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178). \nSurface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nWhat will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as maximum change in global annual mean surface air, based on Land and Ocean Data, in degrees Celsius, in any year in the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive of both 2020 and 2023). This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The scientific definition of \"species\" is surprisingly complicated.\nAs this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:\nAt first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.\nFor the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41): \"a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature.\" \nEvolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physically different from us – due to natural selection, human-engineered tinkering or both – that they would be properly classified as a different species. This [Scientific American article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/) explores some of the key ideas behind this question.\nAnd of course, we might well kill ourselves off, replace ourselves with AIs, etc.\nHow many years from now will the last member of homo sapiens be born? \nWe'll consider the people the future creatures will succeed or fail to interbreed with as early 21st C humans, and this must be possible without technical intervention. The people must exist IRL, i.e. not be simulated beings, uploads, etc. As usual we contemplate beings in the same universe, branch of the wavefunction, etc., as the server running the copy of Metaculus the question sits on.\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\n[According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tracker, as of the 28th of November, 2019, 1753 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains.\nWhen will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken \"ingredients\" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 373,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The difference between tenure-track (TT) and non-tenure track (NTT) percentages reveals how many more higher education teachers are accepted into financially demanding roles at their institutions. This highlights the ability of American institutions to support tenured professors in the future and hints at the institutions' own predictions for financial stability. [AAUP](https://www.aaup.org/report/annual-report-economic-status-profession-2019-20) surveys on the academic labor force and the economic health of professors are reported through [The Annual Report of the Economic Status of the Profession](https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/2019-20_ARES.pdf). In the 2019-2020 school year, the percentage of TT teaching staff at private, religious, and public universities from both sexes, was 20.0% while NTT teaching staff represented 27% of the total academic workforce. The difference therefore as -7% between the two.\nThis question asks: What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the resolve date. This question is a part of the Higher Education Series\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:34:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:43:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.\nBut how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.\nWe can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.\nIt is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? \nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.\n",
- "numforecasts": 495,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 467,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n",
- "numforecasts": 705,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Why care\nEnergy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.\n[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation.\" \nWhen will an organization first report a yearly profit?\nThis question will resolve to a report from a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that indicates that a fusion company (private, public or governmental) turned a yearly profit.\nFor a company to be a fusion company, it must generate over 75% of its revenue from the sale of energy generated by nuclear fusion.\nRelated questions\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers to begin paying full rent once more. \nAs of mid-May 2020, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. By the second quarter, it fell only 2% to [15%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/#:~:text=Office%20vacancy%20rates%20in%20the%20U.S.%202019%2D2020&text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20vacancy,the%20impact%20of%20the%20coronavirus.).\nIn May, the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a [National Association of Realtors survey from May 2020](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n[Recent data](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit-2020-consensus-forecast-12-10-2020.pdf) from November through December, released from the National Association of Realtors Survey, indicates that office vacancy rates will fall 3% heading into 2021, while retail vacancy rates will continue to increase to 11%. Industrial and multi-family vacancy rates are predicted to stay level at 5% and 6% respectively, while hotels experience a 2% drop.\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T19:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.\nWill there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?\nThis question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\nEarthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more.\nThese thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. \n[Haiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti) is a country located on the island of Hispaniola, east of Cuba in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean Sea. It occupies the western three-eighths of the island, which it shares with the Dominican Republic. Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) in size and has an estimated 10.8 million people, making it the most populous country in the Caribbean Community and the second-most populous country in the Caribbean as a whole.\nDespite having a viable tourist industry, Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and the poorest in the Americas region, with poverty, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of health care and lack of education cited as the main causes. Trade declined dramatically after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent outbreak of cholera. Haiti ranked 145 of 182 countries in the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index, with 57.3% of the population being deprived in at least three of the HDI's poverty measures. [You can view some historical, economic and cultural data about Haiti here.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html)\nHaiti is the last World Bank low income country in the Americas, with a [GNI per capita of only $760 as of 2017.](https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=XM-HT) [According to the CIA World Factbook, Haiti ranks 213th in the world (of 228 countries and territories) in terms of GDP per capita.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html#HA)\nThis question asks: When will Haiti become a World Bank upper middle-income country?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before Haiti is designated an upper middle-income country, or if Haiti ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated upper middle-income by the World Bank.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1139/will-a-scientific-mission-to-the-outer-solar-system-be-assigned-to-the-falcon-heavy-by-mid-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "NASA, sometimes in cooperation with other countries, launches missions to space to study planets, stars and other celestial bodies. In order to do this, scientists and engineers have to account for factors, such as money and weight.\nTo make a decent mission and to gather as much data as possible, a probe that NASA could send has to carry with it many scientific instruments. The more instruments there are, the heavier the probe is (and more expensive). The heavier the probe is, the more powerful the rocket to send it has to be. The more powerful the rocket is, the more expensive the mission is. Money and weight are the two main factors to make a mission to space.\nThese days, NASA's budget is more and more reduced. It was 0.47% of the federal budget in 2017 whereas it could reach 4.41% during the Apollo era. Only a few missions can be made, and most of them concern the study of Earth, stars, or the internal solar system. Even though some missions plan to study Jupiter, its moons, and sometimes Saturn, not a single mission, not even as a project, is planified to study space beyond the orbit of Saturn at the moment. The last and only mission that studied Uranus and Neptune was Voyager 2 and New Horizons studied Pluto for a few hours after a 9 years journey through space.\nBut earlier this year, the Falcon Heavy was launched for the first time. SpaceX's new heavy launcher, and current most powerful rocket is capable of launching 63,800 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and 3,500 kg to Pluto, for a cost of 150M $, whereas the Delta IV heavy, the previous most powerful rocket, could only launch 28 790 kg to LEO for a cost of 400M $. The price of the kg in space is almost 6 times lower for the Falcon Heavy than the Delta IV Heavy (2351 $/KG → FH -- 13893 $/KG → D4H).\nTherefore, the Falcon Heavy offers to NASA and other agencies the possibility to multiply its capacities of studying space and for a lower cost.\nWill a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy within the next 5 years? \nresolves positive if by end of July 2023, a credible media or other announcement indicates that a contract has been signed with SpaceX as one party, for the purpose of a scientific payload being launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket. \"Scientific payload\" here shall be taken to be a payload paid for by a nonprofit or government agency with scientific but not military, communication, etc. application.\n",
- "numforecasts": 349,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 195,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4720/what-will-the-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-rate-be-in-q1-of-2021-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.\nAs of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. \nLast month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-29T21:19:40Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "When a [massive solar storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) hit the earth in 1859, it produced auroras bright enough to wake Colorado miners and threw sparks off of telegraph wires. Were such a storm to strike today, however, the consequences to our technology-dependent society [would be catastrophic](http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-1859-solar-storm-telegraph-scientists-2016-9). Such storms are the subject of several other questions, particularly [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/519/will-evidence-emerge-for-solar-superflares/) regarding the frequency of such storms and [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/168/will-the-us-develop-a-new-satellite-for-early-warning-of-severe-geomagnetic-storms/) regarding the construction of a satellite warning system.\nTwo Harvard University professors, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb, recently [estimate the losses](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.05348.pdf) at $10 trillion, with a years-long recovery. In contrast to that cost, which is approximately [50 times the cost of NASA's initial efforts to send humans to the moon](https://christopherrcooper.com/blog/apollo-program-cost-return-investment/). Given estimates upward of 1%/year of such a flare, this sort of prospective loss arguably calls for significant spending at risk mitigation.\nBeyond warnings or damage minimization, the above paper proposes a somewhat more radical astronomical protection plan. A loop of copper wire with a diameter similar to the Earth's, they say, powered by one terawatt, could create a sufficient magnetic field so as to deflect the energy of a solar storm enough to protect the planet's technology. Placed at the [Lagrange point L1](https://www.space.com/30302-lagrange-points.html), the loop would cost about $100 billion to construct, Lingam and Loeb estimate. (As a fun side-beneit, they investigate how we might look for signs of such shields built by other civilizations out there.)\nWill anyone take this idea seriously? We'll ask the following:\nBy 2021, will a chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?\nThis question will resolve positively given a credible report that a grant, contract, budget line, or some similar allocation of funding equalling $100K or more has been made toward further study of, or designs for, an in-orbit Earth protecting magnetic deflection system. Effective cost of researcher or faculty time does not count, and the description of the allocation must somewhere directly reference Lingam and Loeb.\n",
- "numforecasts": 250,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-10-15T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?\nThis will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.\nIf the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The synthetic biology industry has boomed over the last twenty years. Presaged by Michael Crichton's 1990 novel Jurassic Park, serious discussion has begun as to whether it is possible (or advisable) to revive extinct species for which a sequenced genome can be recovered. \n[Pet cloning services](http://investors.dna.com/2015-10-13-Intrexon-Subsidiary-ViaGen-Pets-Announces-Successful-Delivery-of-Healthy-Kittens) and [fully-synthetic organisms](http://www.jcvi.org/cms/press/press-releases/full-text/article/first-self-replicating-synthetic-bacterial-cell-constructed-by-j-craig-venter-institute-researcher/home/), once the domain of science fiction, are now a reality. The dinosaurs of Michael Chrichton's imagination may be a longshot, but due to the preservation-friendly climate of their natural habitat, the woolly mammoth appears to be a strong candidate for [\"de-extinction\"](https://www.amazon.com/How-Clone-Mammoth-Science-Extinction-ebook/dp/B00QMV6S6Q?ie=UTF8&btkr=1&redirect=true&ref_=dp-kindle-redirect): there have been dozens of documented findings of [intact frozen mammoths](http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/05/mammoths/mueller-text), dating back as early as 1700. Efforts thus far have yielded many news stories but [little in the way of demonstrable success](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-16068581). However, some recent advances in genetic engineering tools like CRISPR/Cas9 have allowed for some intermediate progress; one group reported that they had [successfully cloned woolly mammoth genes into a modern-day elephant](http://www.popsci.com/woolly-mammoth-dna-brought-life-elephant-cells).\nStudies like these seem to be [bolstering confidence](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/247402?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Sharebar&utm_campaign=Sumome_share) in the scientific and business communities, but the obstacles lying before them are far greater than simply research or money. The human capability to revive a long-dead species has moral implications that have just barely been explored: do we have a right to bring back such species? Or even a duty, considering that homo sapiens probably cause many of them to go extinct? These become particularly poignant when considering bringing back a species such as [neanderthals](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12886.html).\nOn a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?\nResolution is positive if a mammal, reptile, or avian species extinct for over 1,000 years is full reconstructed in one or more living examples of age at least 3 months from birth.\n",
- "numforecasts": 642,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-07T13:15:21Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. \nThis questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?\nThe total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity.\nGiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated.\nThis question asks: \nWhen will GiveWell's list of top charities first contain a charity which was founded by someone who received either training or a grant from Charity Entrepreneurship?\nResolution will be according to the GiveWell website, and/or credible media reporting. If GiveWell decides to no longer produce a list of \"top charities\", this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14. Performance results reported by e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, or blog articles by reputable AI labs may also be consulted.\nPerformance results must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14 to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 208,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 257,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-05T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?\nIt is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?\nData for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.\n",
- "numforecasts": 293,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\nA paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\nIn machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\nThe photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \nWhile several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).\nThis question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2022-2024 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.\nIt is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?\nIn order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.\n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will commercial supersonic flight return?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 282,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nAlphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/). \nIn case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class A (ticker $GOOGL).\nPrices are are to be adjusted from Q4 2026 prices to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn case Alphabet Inc. is no longer a publicly traded company on 2026-12-14, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-11T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with >5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n",
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Balloons to the edge of space – when?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home.\nBallooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace)\nBalloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures.\nWhen will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-02-19T20:11:55Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-15T20:11:57Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T20:12:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4036/what-will-chinas-unemployment-rate-be-for-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "During the last recession, China launched [an aggressive stimulus and credit expansion package](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/china-credit-expansion-unintended-consequences) which [kept the unemployment rate below 4.3%](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate) and reduced it over the following eighteen months. However, in the first two months of the nCov-19 pandemic, 5 million Chinese workers [have lost their jobs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/china-economy-millions-lose-their-jobs-as-unemployment-spikes.html), many areas of the country remain in lockdown, and exports [have dropped by 17.2%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/china-s-jan-feb-exports-fall-17-2-y-y-in-dollars-est-16-2).\nHow successfully (or unsuccessfully) and how quickly will China manage this crisis?\nThe question asks: what will China's official unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?\nThe question will resolve as China's Q1 2021 unemployment rate per [CEIC Data](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate), as soon as it becomes available.\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised.\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems.\nAs of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. \nHowever, there is optimism that a significant reduction in cost to LEO could be achieved in the near future. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claims that the company's Starship and Super Heavy launch system, currently in development, could eventually achieve a cost per kilogram to LEO of as little as $10: \n[Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 & 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, what will be the lowest cost, in inflation-adjusted dollars, to deliver a kilogram of mass to low Earth orbit (or beyond; suborbital flights are excluded) using any system that has actually completed at least one successful delivery at the stated price?\nInflation adjustment should be completed using a consumer price index method, with January 2020 taken as the reference month.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-ref_query?bibcode=2016AJ....151...22B&refs=CITATIONS&db_key=AST) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M) among the most distant members of the Kuipier Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found. \nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nIt thus seems timely to release this fifth update to our original, now long-closed, [Planet Nine question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/109/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-in-2016/). Specifically: \nWill the detection (by direct optical observation) of a new Solar System planet occur by July 1, 2021?\nFor this question to resolve as \"Yes\", the new Solar System planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-05T22:35:59Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-02T13:51:59Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-05T22:35:59Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989.\nWill three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?\nThis question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the [research.un.org website](https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/) on 1 January 2022.\nThis question concerns the number of unique resolutions vetoed, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution '[S/2019/961](https://undocs.org/en/S/2019/961)' was vetoed by [both Russia and China](https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8697), but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.\nIn the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities.\nOn February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported,\nOne of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.\nThis question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (>10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 345,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).\nThe question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? \nThis question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).\nFurther details: \n--- \nThe date for resolving is the one where this goal was reached, not the reporting date. For the purpose of this question, whole genome sequencing and whole-genome microarray technology count\n--- \nBy citizens, we mean citizens of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong\n--- \nGenomes from monozygotic (identical) twins count as multiple different genomes for the purpose of this question\nGenotyping only counts if it is both broad (samples widely in the genome), and deep (samples many loci, say >500k). \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US income inequality increase by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n",
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the start of 2019, in a [blogpost](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/01/what-happened-to-90s-environmentalism/) entitled \"Whatever happened to 90s environmentalism?\", Scott Alexander wrote:\nImagine that twenty years from now, nobody cares or talks about global warming. It hasn’t been debunked. It’s still happening. People just stopped considering it interesting. Every so often some webzine or VR-holozine or whatever will publish a “Whatever Happened To Global Warming” story, and you’ll hear that global temperatures are up X degrees centigrade since 2000 and that explains Y percent of recent devastating hurricanes. Then everyone will go back to worrying about Robo-Trump or Mecha-Putin or whatever.\nIf this sounds absurd, I think it’s no weirder than what’s happened to 90s environmentalism and the issues it cared about.\nThis question is about the extent to which interest in climate change, as measured by Google Trends, will have changed by 2025. It asks:\nLet the average monthly value of this [Google Trends index of climate concern](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zAtvopkcsM1rtdGx3RhlXq521wpFc5EvnJxyqar_kPc/edit?usp=sharing) for the first six months of 2025 be F, and the monthly value for June 2020 be P. \nWhat will be the value of F/P?\nThe index is the sum of the search interest in the following 10 terms according to Google Trends, over the time-window: 2004-2025-07-01, normalised for climate change:\n1--climate change \n2--global warming \n3--greenhouse gas \n4--greenhouse effect \n5--fossil fuels \n6--carbon dioxide \n7--sea level rise \n8--emissions \n9--renewable energy \n10-climate science \nThe search terms used to generate the data are:\n---[One](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,global%20warming,greenhouse%20gas,greenhouse%20effect,fossil%20fuels) \n---[Two](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,carbon%20dioxide,sea%20level%20rise,emissions,renewable%20energy) \n---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,climate%20science) \nThe normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.\n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\nThis question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2039-11-27T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.\nAmong the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.\nThat being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).\nIn order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and potentially cracking RSA keys, RSA Laboratories put forward their [RSA Factoring Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge) in 1991. Though the challenges officially ended in 2007, they’re still used as a common benchmark for factoring to this day. The largest number factored so far, [RSA-240](https://lists.gforge.inria.fr/pipermail/cado-nfs-discuss/2019-December/001139.html), was publicized only last December. The full list of numbers, including all known factorizations, can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers).\nWhen will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or another polynomial-time integer factorization algorithm) be used to factor one of the previously unfactored RSA numbers for the first time?\nResolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\nQuestion: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? \nThe question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.\nIt will resolve as negative if:\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\nRecent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\nHere is the question:\nWill chess be weakly solved by 2035? \nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.\n",
- "numforecasts": 343,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the student loan debt bubble \"pop\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. \n[CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school \"with a significant amount of loans\" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's \"trillion\" with a \"T\". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/)\nIn November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880):\nThe average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50 years. \nMany independent financial analysts believe this situation is untenable.\nIn April 2017, a Financial Times analyst [observed](https://www.ft.com/content/a272ee4c-1b83-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f) that \"In an eerie echo of the housing crisis, debt is already flowing out of the private sector, and into the public.\"\nBillionaire Mark Cuban has said [straight up](https://www.inc.com/mark-cuban/video-student-loans-bubble.html): \"I think the student loan bubble is going to burst.\"\nClearly, some change is due. But when exactly will this bubble \"burst\"? We'll define this popping as a jump in the student load default rate. Those rates are tabulated various places, but depend a lot on the timescale. For example official [Federal student loan default rates](https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/schooltyperates.pdf) define a 3-year rate, which is at 10.8% for fiscal year 2015, by \nA cohort default rate is the percentage of a school's borrowers who enter repayment on certain Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) Program or William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Loan) Program loans during a particular federal fiscal year (FY), October 1 to September 30, and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year.\nA [longer-term study](https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought/) looks at default rates for 1996 and 2004 cohorts and finds that of those who took out loans, 18.2 and 27.2%, respectively, had defaulted 12 years later.\nWe'll ask: \nIn what year (if ever) will the 3-year rate, as defined above, reach 20% OR the 12 year rate reach 40%? \nIn each case the resolution date is defined by the middle of the year at the end of the interval in question. Resolution is by govt. or private numbers comparable in methodology and results to the above two reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-28T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-08-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-08T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-05T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a universal flu vaccine be available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains.\nFor at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highly effective universal flu vaccine combined with a strong vaccination campaign could lead to the flu being virtually eliminated in some places, as with other diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. However, even a moderately effective universal flu vaccine might substantially increase vaccination coverage and reduce flu severity.\nWhen will a universal flu vaccine be available?\n---To be considered available, a vaccine must be approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicine Agency. The resolution date is the first date of approval. \n---A universal flu vaccine must meet one of the following conditions.\n------The vaccine is effective for multiple years. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses that it may be received less than once per year. \n------The vaccine is effective against unseen strains. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses the use of a version of the vaccine that was formulated without using the WHO's current yearly recommended vaccine composition (or any similar yearly recommendation). \n---Beyond the above conditions, there are no specific requirements on effectiveness. \n---It is acceptable if the universal flu vaccine is recommended in conjunction with, and not as a replacement to, traditional flu vaccines. \n---Since even existing flu vaccines may provide some residual protection against the flu, the vaccine in question must be described or advertised as being universal, broad-spectrum, etc. \n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-11T03:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2090-01-11T03:46:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.\nIt seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:\nWhen will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? \nQuestion resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.\nResolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.\n(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized).\nA [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. \nA new [COVID-19 relief bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/what-is-in-the-bipartisan-coronavirus-relief-bill-unveiled-monday.html) came before Congress this Monday, December 14th, offering $908 billion dollars. \n“The package is broken into two bills: The $738 billion Bipartisan Emergency COVID Relief Act of 2020 includes funding for enhanced unemployment benefits, another round of small business loans, emergency food assistance and emergency rental relief, among many other provisions, according to a summary of the package. Meanwhile, the $160 billion Bipartisan State and Local Support and Small Business Protection Act of 2020 provides liability insurance for businesses and funding for state, local and tribal aid.”\nIn its [Personal Income and Outlays](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) reports, the BEA provides monthly, quarterly, and annual figures including total unemployment insurance transfers.\nHistorical data is provided on BEA's National Accounts [archive](https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/histChildLevels.cfm?HMI=7). As an example, the data from July 2020 is provided [here](https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/pi0720.pdf#page=7).\nA similar question for Q4 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/)\nWhat will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolves based on the latest BEA [Personal Income and Outlays report](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) as of the question resolution date, titled \"Unemployment insurance\", using the seasonally-adjusted annualized figure for 2021 Q1. As of the October 2020 release, this row is on line 26 of Table 1. If no BEA estimates have been released by the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:33:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. \nHow many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n",
- "numforecasts": 588,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T21:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:50:34Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated questions:\n[Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T23:04:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). \nThe question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"currently undiscovered\" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.\nFor this question, a \"social media\" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus)\nThere are already questions about the number of deaths that will be attributed to the disease before 2021, as well as the number of cases and estimated infections that will develop. However, there are some reasons why specific questions about ratios of these values will be useful:\n--- \nWhile dividing the median for deaths by the median for estimated infections may give a reasonable point estimate, it doesn't give all the info we want. With this question, we will be able to see the distribution of infection-mortality rates. This cannot be reliably inferred using the distributions for number of cases and number of deaths, because the variables are correlated.\n--- \nThe time-series graph provided by the question will show how predictions about infection-fatality rates change over time.\nResolution: The resolution for this question will be determined by directly dividing the number of fatalities by the total number of cases, using the resolution values given by the following two Metaculus questions:\n--- \nNumerator: [How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-before-2021/)\n--- \nDenominator: [How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/)\nThere may be more sophisticated ways of determining infection-fatality rate, but we would like to stay consistent with the other Metaculus questions.\nEdited 2020-03-06 to clarify that this is the infection-fatality ratio rather than the case-fatality ratio.\nEdited 2020-04-29 to clarify that this question resolves as the estimated number of deaths before 2021 divided by the estimated number of infections before 2021.\nEdited 2020-05-17 to change the denominator from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-infections-of-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-50k-1b-range/), to the [improved version of that question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 1782,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3063/bitcoin-lightning-network-capacity-in-btc-on-2021-aug-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the [lightning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network) [network](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp). A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.\nAt 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by [bitcoinvisuals.com](https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity)?\nDifferent sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on [bitcoinvisuals.com](http://bitcoinvisuals.com) simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to [1ml.com](http://1ml.com), and then a third source if needed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-25T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-25T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 263,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3110/will-the-mars-2020-helicopter-fly/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "NASA [is putting](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7489) a [small](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout#Design) (2 kg, 1 m) [helicopter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout) on the [Mars 2020 Rover](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_2020). It is very much a proof of concept, being designed for 5 short (3 min.) flights and only carrying a camera. But it opens the door to much more ambitious powered flight vehicles on Mars and elsewhere.\nQuestion: Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mounted on the Mars 2020 rover send back at least one picture taken while flying on Mars, conditional on a flight being attempted?\nResolution details:\n---The picture must be taken while the helicopter is flying under its own power on Mars. \n---The picture must make it back to earth, and be published by NASA. \n---This resolves negative if a flight is attempted, but no such picture is obtained. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no relevant flight is attempted before 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-16T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-18T10:42:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "The End of NAFTA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).\nDuring his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.\nWe hence ask: \nwill the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? \nThis question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars.\nWhile beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the win in the presidential election in 2020, Medicare is still estimated to [run out of proper funding](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/health/medicare-and-medicaid/2012-05/The-Future-Of-Medicare.pdf) for all expected expenses by 2024. \nWith an aging population in the US, the amount of money dedicated to health insurance, especially during the period of time during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, will need to increase to fully cover the growing number of health expenses. Since 2017, the amount of money dedicated to Medicare has already increased by approximately $300 billion dollars.\nWhat percentage of the federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:54:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\nAnd you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.\nIf Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?\nIf the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-26T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \">\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.\nApparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.\nThe Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.\nWhen will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?\n---This question may resolve if The Boring Company or its representative issues a statement that one of its TBMs is currently tunneling, or has tunneled, at a rate of at least 140 meters per day (even momentarily, e.g. 6 m in one hour). \n---This question may also resolve if some tunnel, at least 1 km long, is completed at a rate of at least 140 meters per day, from the moment that the TBM starts boring the earth at the entrance, to when it breaks through the exit. \n---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. \n---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. \n",
- "numforecasts": 113,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-22T05:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-06-22T05:51:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The catchphrase [\"I've fallen and I can't get up,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.\nResearchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.\nWhen will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \nAccording to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\nThe final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\nThe third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(18)30135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\nLarge-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\nSide effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\nOther researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \nWith the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?\nTo resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. \nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. \nEurope is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).\nGrowth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. \nProjections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.\nHow much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?\nThe definitive source for question resolution will be the annual \"[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)\" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-03-27T16:54:11Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "All political parties eventually come to an end.\nMost U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940).)\nFor as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. \nBut this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [points out](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/the_republican_party_is_old_and_getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html): \nDemocrats have a substantial edge with voters under 35 while Republicans are more likely to be on the older side of middle age and septuagenarians. The beauty of the over-65 set is that they are reliable voters. The bad news about them is that they are not long for this Earth.\nFrom almost all accounts, younger voters--particularly [Millennials](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/376334-poll-dems-lead-gop-among-millennials-by-two-to-one-ratio) and [Gen Zers](http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/389016-parkland-and-the-political-coming-of-generation-z)--favor liberal/democratic causes in a big way. Once the Silent Generation dies off, and the Baby Boomers ride into the sunset, unless voters reallign, the GOP will be in the substantial minority. \nHowever, success is not guaranteed for the Democrats. At least in Europe, many of the traditional social democratic or socialist partiest were supplanted or are at least threatened to be overtaken by new (often populist) movements and parties. Examples include (La République) En Marche ! in France, Podemos in Spain, the Five Star Movement in Italy or Syriza in Greece\nFor how long will both Democratic and Republican parties exist? Resolution is triggered when:\n--- \nOne of the two parties formally dissolves or is converted into another party of another name, or\n--- \nEither there are no sitting Republican US congresspeople or no sitting Democratic US congresspeople, or\n--- \nA US presidential election occurs in which the set of candidates receiving 5% or more of the popular votes does not contain both a Democrat and a Republican.\nNote that this question is also in a sense a question on the dissolution of the American political system.\n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-11-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-11-15T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\nWill MEND be independently replicated by 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 197,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-06-12T21:21:40Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\nIn light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?\n\nResolution\n----------\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n1-- \nIf the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n2-- \nIf the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n3-- \nIn the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\nFurther reading\n---------------\n\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n--- \nZak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n--- \nRobine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)\nOver the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. \nThis question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 465,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\nWill Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? \nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 290,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-04-02T22:14:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n",
- "numforecasts": 451,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-15T17:15:15Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 370,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .\nIn the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.\nNaive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.\nThe best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.\nIn 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?\n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2053-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar Cycle 25 is predicted to begin sometime before the end of 2020. The beginning of the solar cycle occurs during the solar minimum, which is characterized by low activity and few sunspots. \nA variety of observations indicate that during solar minima, the Sun experiences long-lived coronal holes, which are “vast regions in the Sun’s atmosphere where the Sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.” Solar wind emanating from coronal holes can cause space weather effects around Earth as the wind interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While the typical energy density of the solar wind is substantially less than that of atmospheric winds on earth, its effects are manifested by auroral displays near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field is weakest. \nDuring solar minimum, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites), which can lead to an increased amount of “space junk” in Earth’s atmosphere and higher collision rates for satellites in orbit. The period surrounding solar minimum is also associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication.\nWhen will Solar Cycle 25’s minima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T01:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:21:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: \"Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.\"\nThe [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:\nLogic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. \nAnd an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).\nOn the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: \"Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.\"\nSo are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the \"deployed\": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2048-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 263,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5225/relaxation-of-maximum-group-size-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.\nThe Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [\"any longer than we have to\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?\nThat is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?\nThe question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.\nThe question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. \n",
- "numforecasts": 323,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 281,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):\nCybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.\nThe SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.\n[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”\n[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.\n[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.\nWill John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?\n---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. \n---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. \n---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. \n---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. \n---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nThere is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies [reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/6/Egg-sexing-close-to-market-301797E/). \nWhen will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??\nResolution\nThis resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.\nFor the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if: \n1-- \ntechniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and\n2-- \nat least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.\nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T01:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 276,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.\nThis question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2074-10-10T09:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-10-10T09:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T04:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(tennis)) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\nWill Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human head transplant occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.\nMuch more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.\nRecently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.\nThe body donor, meanwhile, will likely be a someone who died of severe head trauma but whose body was left unscathed. The researchers claim to have been perfecting the technique on mice, a dog, a monkey, and, recently, a human cadaver. Originally, they predicted a fall 2017 transplant but now [just say it is “imminent.”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/italian-doctor-says-worlds-first-human-head-transplant-imminent/847288001/).\nWhen will will a human head transplant operation be performed\nResolution is positive regardless of the survival of the patient after the operation. Positive resolution requires the patient who provides the donor head to be alive right before the procedure: the patient providing the donor head should not be declared legally dead 48 hours or more before the transplant occurs. Brain-only transplants do not count towards positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-09T22:01:59.305000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-09T19:52:20.028000Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
- "numforecasts": 351,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/). \nThese organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.\nWhat is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?\nIf no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously.\nIf only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nOtherwise, this resolves at the value (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at Alcor while both organisations were active) / (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at the Cryonics Institute while both organisations were active) at the start of 2200.\n\"Active\" means that the organisation is currently officially offering cryopreservation to its members and storing them at its own facilities.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients. \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2141-07-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-28T05:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
- "numforecasts": 350,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-01T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\nAccording to the BBC: \nIt emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\nThe researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\nThe virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\nThey found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\nCurrent flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination.\nAlcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html):\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nSo, what’s your preference? Better pictures, or better biological viability? The neuroscientists want the pictures. Alcor has traditionally worked to achieve better biological viability.\n[...] The cryobiological experts who advise Alcor favor the use of Alcor’s current protocol (or we would have changed it).\nThe Brain Preservation Foundation, which awarded the $80,000 prize for ASC, is more hopeful, claiming that these better pictures make the brain more suitable for eventual resurrection via scanning and uploading.\nWhat will the value (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved using fixatives, who are revived) / (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved without using fixatives, who are revived) be at the start of 2200?\nThis counts only the people who are cryopreserved while fixatives are available, so that the question measures only the effect from using fixatives, and not general improvement in cryonics between 1967 and whenever fixatives become available, and from later techniques which would supersede fixatives. \n\"Available\" means that a cryonics organisation officially offers cryopreservation using fixatives to its members.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\nIf nobody is revived from cryopreservation before 2200, or nobody is cryopreserved using fixatives, then this resolves ambiguously. If the only people revived are those who were preserved using fixatives, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2133-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nDollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nCurrently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.\nHow much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017, $4b in 2018, $4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).\nWill Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-01T20:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T19:28:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [239 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](http://(https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler)). \nHow many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending at latest in 2030, on December 1st, 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-05-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-30T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions: \n---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) \n---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) \n---[When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) \nIn 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma%27s_Revenge_(video_game)).\nAs of 2021 Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43 791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. However, it requires billions of frames or years of game play to achieve that performance.\nI attempted to calibrate this question by playing the game for 15 min. In this time I managed to score a maximum of 6700 points. [You can test the game on your own here.](https://www.retrogames.cz/play_124-Atari2600.php?language=EN)\nAn AI system which is able to rapidly learn in dynamic environments could have a great impact on the world's economy.\nWhen will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?\nThis question will resolve when a reputable source reports that an AI system managed to score strictly more than 6000 points at least once within the first 30 minutes of the game play (no more than 108 000 frames). The system must have no previous direct access to the Montezuma's Revenge game, but it may be pretrained in other ways.\nWith regard to pretraining, the question allows:\n---unlimited training on anything that is unrelated to the game \n---unlimited training on all other Atari games \n---having videos and/or screenshots of the Montezuma's Revenge game in the training set as long as they unambiguously consist of less than 3% of the training set \n---access to any text resources related to the game including tutorials etc. \nBesides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit.\nIn general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&singleton=true&cruz_id=rmont), UCSC\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \nDensity Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_(mathematician)) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \nWill the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? \nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.\n",
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).\nWhen will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?\nResolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.\nThe question resolves as \">2040\" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Robocup Challenge",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? \nPositive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.\n",
- "numforecasts": 302,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:45:01Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:45:08Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption [(McMichael et al, 2007)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17868818). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming [might be causing substantial suffering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating).\nOverfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude [(Le Pape et al. 2017)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5547646/). Restoring and preserving marine life is [one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/envision2030-goal14.html). However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. [In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world](https://www.aiddata.org/publications/listening-to-leaders-2018), restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years ([Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-01-09-aligning-fisheries-aid-with-international-development-targets-and-goals.html)).\nSeveral clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/), the Canadian-based [SeaFuture](http://seafuturebio.com/) and the Singporean-based [Shiok Meats](https://shiokmeats.com/).\nAn IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean fish company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms \"clean fish\" or \"clean meat company\" producing \"fish\", where \"clean meat\" may be interchanged with \"cell-based\", \"in vitro\", \"cultivated\", or \"cultured\", and \"fish\" with any particular fish (e.g. \"clean tuna\"). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(19)30231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.\nThe [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.\nAs of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).\nThis question asks: When will the first study be published that includes at least 1,000,000 persons of African descent in a GWAS?\nFor the purposes of this question:\n--- \nPublished studies mean research papers that are open to public readership, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. This includes preprints (e.g. biorXiv), and other open science documents.\n--- \nWhole exome sequencing, whole genome sequencing, and genome-wide genotyping arrays count.\n--- \nAfrican American and Afro-Caribbean and other majority African ancestry populations are counted as \"African\" though they are part non-African ancestry. The data are classified this way in studies.\n--- \nThe question will resolve as >2040 if no such study is published before December 31, 2040.\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. \nBut this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder:\nWhen will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?\nWill resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the 10,000th human reach space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1556/will-there-be-extraordinary-or-premature-federal-elections-held-in-germany-before-their-next-election-cycle/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, [Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46016377).\nThe latter is particularly interesting since Merkel herself always insisted on the Chancellor also holding the office of respective party chairman, a practise she criticised her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, for abandoning in light of rising criticism regarding his reform plans.\nHer current prospective successors as chairmen of the CDU are:\n---[Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer](https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-ally-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-urges-new-era-in-german-politics/a-46196445), the unofficial favourite, \n---[Friedrich Merz](https://www.dw.com/en/friedrich-merz-makes-pitch-to-lead-cdu-after-angela-merkel/a-46108295), who had left politics a decade ago, and \n---[Jens Spahn](https://www.jens-spahn.de/neustart_fuer_die_cdu), the current Minister of Health. \nThere are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office prematurely for a successor to gain valuable experience as a chancellor. But it is doubtful if the junior partner in the coalition, the SPD, would support such a move, preferring new elections instead. Similarly the new chairman may obstruct Merkel in parliament to raise their profile for the next federal elections, possibly to the extent of triggering premature federal elections.\nThus we ask: Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?\nResolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else.\n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-03-31T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-25T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\nIt is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.\nA world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 195,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called \"Spanish Flu.\" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.\nAlso unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.\nSo here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?\nWill there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? \n",
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-06-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.\nHis statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that \"It's always 'the end of the year.'\"\nThe company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the \"feather\" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.\nWhen will SpaceShip Two's first passenger flight occur?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news outlet or corporate press release reports that SpaceShip Two crossed the Karman line into space carrying at least one paying non-pilot passenger, and safely returned to the ground.\n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-05-23T23:24:48Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.\nPoker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. \nAn example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead not only to substandard play that is exploited by opponents, but also to penalties and even potential disqualification.\nAnd so we ask: when will a computer or robotic player become skilled enough at both the theoretical game and the physical game of poker to win a significant Texas HoldEm competition against humans in live play?\n\nDefinition of “significant competition”:\n----------------------------------------\n\nA Texas HoldEm tournament or cash game in which:\n---more than 300 hands are played \n---robotic and human players obey the same rules, without special accommodations for the perceptual or motor skills of the robotic player (including complying with verbal direction from the dealer and staff) \n---competitors include at least one human member of the top 200 of the [Hendon Mob All Time Money List](http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/all-time-money-list/) (at the time of play) \n---the winner (best-outcome player) is awarded more than $10,000 US (whether that money is awarded to the robot itself or to its owners or developers), with the same payouts made to robotic and human players. \nThere are a wide variety of ways in which a competition like this could come about, and the intent is to cast a wide net. Two contrasting examples, which would both count for positive resolution:\n1--A “Deep Blue vs. Kasparov”-style challenge, in which the whole point of the competition is to pit human against machine. \n2--Harold takes a week off from his middle-management desk job, walks into the Rio All-Suites Hotel in Las Vegas, and plunks down $10,000 in cash for a seat in the World Series of Poker Main Event, because (since the recent passage of Robotic Personhood legislation) no one can tell him that he can’t, and after all it’s his money. \n\nClarifications and fine print:\n------------------------------\n\n---The robot player must finish #1 in the event. In the case of a cash game, this means netting the most money by the end. In the case of a tournament, this means playing until a robot is the only one left. \n---The win must be for the entire event as scheduled. For example, if a televised cash-game event is scheduled to span multiple days, a win over the course of a single day does not suffice. If the event is a single-elimination heads-up tournament, it does not suffice to win the semi-final game, even if that guarantees a purse greater than $10,000 US. \n---The robot need not literally sit in a chair at the poker table, but needs to be at the table taking up approximately the same portion of the perimeter that a human player would be allowed. \n--- \nThe rules must allow for the kinds of sensory modalities that would normally be legal for human players, but not for perceptual abilities that would correspond to cheating for humans. Examples: \n------Scanning cards in a way that allows reading through the back to see symbols on the front – disallowed. \n------Scanning the backs of cards to record their imperfections and distinguish between them in the future (i.e. “Every card is marked.”) - disallowed. \n------Scanning the faces of opponents to determine their emotional state – fair game. \n",
- "numforecasts": 169,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2220-02-28T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 209,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3432/philpapers-survey-mini-series-biological-ness-of-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological, as opposed to being social or unreal?\nSee [here for a discussion](https://philpeople.org/feed_items/49518082) of this question by Chalmers.\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nBetween 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). \nMovements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers.\nHow many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:20:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\nedited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 231,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services][https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm()](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm())\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics.\nSuppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively.\nWhat is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)?\n--- \nDrugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 \n--- \nNon-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-22T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2071-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. \nRecently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, \nAs the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.\nIn their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.\nThere are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course \"other.\" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:\nLuckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:\nWill the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? \nResolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are \"combination\" trucks such as tractor-trailers.\nAll of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one:\nWhen will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? \nFor positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the \"passenger seat\" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 348,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-02T04:32:27Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 611,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 374,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. \nThere is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.\nThis, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).\nWill there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? \nThe answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-08-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\nIf the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive. If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative. If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1139,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.\nSingapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.\nSingapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)\nThis question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?\nThis question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.\nIf no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-08T18:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-08T17:22:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 221,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n--- \nThe US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).\n--- \nAny year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.\nDefine the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.\nWe divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and .\nWhat will be this depression's relative severity ?\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. \nOne of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback.\nWill ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?\nWhether an event is a \"scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances\" will be resolved per the [\"I know it when I see it\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.\nEdit 2020-01-03: Replaced \"In the case of disagreement among Metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution\" with \"In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5744/date-when-150m-in-us-vaccinated-from-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n",
- "numforecasts": 356,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-12-31T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. \nWith the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question.\nHow much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T23:47:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60.\nThis question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? \nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.\nResolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.\n",
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.93,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n",
- "numforecasts": 166,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.\nSome cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)).\nWhen will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?\nPositive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and all races in the U.S.\n1--% 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer, \n2--% 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer, \n3--% 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer, \n4--% 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer, \n5--% 5-year survival rates for liver cancer, \n6--% 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer, \nas reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.\nHistorical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2037-02-10T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-06-19T21:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.\n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWill the US see mass price controls in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) \n---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) \n---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) \n---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) \n---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) \n---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) \n---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) \nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2572/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-able-to-cover-an-unexpected-400-expense-without-selling-something-or-borrowing-money-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the [Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm), which measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans.\nSince its first edition in 2013, the SHED has [included a question about whether or not the survey participant could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2017-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm)\nIn 2013, only 50% of survey participants said that they could do so. (See Figure 11 in the link above.) That number has slowly but steadily improved over time. In 2017, the most recent year for which figures are available as of January 16 2019, 59% of survey participants said they could do so.\nThis question asks: In the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking conducted for the year 2020, what percentage of Americans will say that they could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money?\nIn the event that this survey is renamed or discontinued but the same question is asked by another survey conducted by either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury, this question should remain active. If no such survey is conducted for the year 2020, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that the dollar value in question is changed by more than 5% in real terms (linked to 2019 dollars), this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2021-06-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.\n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict <18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if <18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-03T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters.\nPhysical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.\nI ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\nThis question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. \nIt resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [\"the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.\"](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.\nThis question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?\nIn 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).\nThis question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we have a new Pope?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.\nSENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. \nAs a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.\nHere's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year were $8,617,564.\nThis question asks: For the 2021 tax year, what figure will SENS Research Foundation report on their Form 990 as the value of their gross receipts, in US dollars?\nIn the event that no such filing is made (e.g. because SRF no longer exists or is no longer required to file this form), this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)\nThis resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-04T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 433,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 5111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-12T22:19:37Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-12T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nWill Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
- "numforecasts": 408,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\nFor the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-31T21:26:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 231,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 419.13 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to an average of 428.79 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWhat will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020 to 2021 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the arithmetic mean of the \"annual mean carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration data from the Mauna Loa monitoring station\" in 2020 and 2021, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\nIf you wish to make a copy of the data, you can do this by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\". If you make useful additions to the dataset, feel free share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. \nOren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.\nThis question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.\nIf the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).\nWhen will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?\nResolution\nTypes 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nThis question asks:\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n",
- "numforecasts": 270,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n",
- "numforecasts": 465,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:16:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 229,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation.\nOverall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year.\nWhile deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years.\nHow many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?\nResolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.\nA [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat percentage of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\nCIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that:\n\"The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.\"\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022.\nA question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-28T21:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T20:19:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),\nThe marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.\nThe best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.\nThese two Metaculus questions are relevant:\n[Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/)\n[Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/)\nAlso see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)\nThis question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-10T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nOrange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none of those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Orlando boasts a fleet of [5,375 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Orlando include Disney World, and all subsidiary parks and locations, Orlando International Airport, Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando VA Hospital, as well as the Orlando Science Center.\nThe Floridian government announced an [$8.6 million investment](https://www.flgov.com/2020/07/10/governor-ron-desantis-announces-next-steps-to-strengthen-floridas-electric-vehicle-infrastructure/) to strengthen their electric vehicle infrastructure within the state in July 2020 as part of their [Electric Vehicle Roadmap plan](https://www.fdacs.gov/Energy/Florida-Electric-Vehicle-Roadmap). They plan to expand charging stations by 50% across the most traveled roads and cities across Florida.\nHow many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Orlando, FL, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets will not be used to ascertain the resolution because they are not offered on the ChargePoint map. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-02T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "At what point will at least ten technologies listed on \"The Rejuvenation Roadmap\" be released to the public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which\naims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.\nAs of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.\nIf ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if:\n---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). \n---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. \n---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. \nWith new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price.\nLow prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environment. Just in the United States, if everyone drove an electric vehicle, carbon emissions would [drop around 8.4%](https://insh.world/tech/what-if-all-cars-were-electric/#:~:text=Electric%20cars%20are%204%2Dtimes,would%20immediately%20drop%20by%208.4%25.). \nIt is possible to ascertain both producer dynamics in the market and competition levels, as well as consumer preferences with regards to EV criteria by looking at sales differences between models on the market. This could help greatly with understanding both the industry as it grows, and what EV factors influence greater adoption levels by consumers.\nWhat will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?\nResolution criteria for the most-sold models will come from the US Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) which provides an infographic with the number of sale deliveries of each light-duty, electric model by company. In 2019 the most sold vehicle was Tesla Model 3 with 154,840 vehicles sold in the US, followed by the Prius PHEV at 23,630. The price differential between these two models is great (over $11,000 starting price). In 2017, the Tesla Model S sold 26,500 which was followed by the Chevy Bolt with 23,297, a relatively small difference (with an average price difference of over $60,000). Here we can see that there is something about the Tesla Model 3, and/or the changing industry dynamics over time, that is greatly affecting adoption. We also see a dramatic reduction in price difference between the offerings, perhaps due to battery costs. If data is no longer provided, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nPrice data was taken using starting price levels for each model by the year it was produced using a google search. Prices are not adjusted for subsidies, and approximations serve well in an estimation of general price difference.\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-31T00:26:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T00:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-31T01:16:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 198,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIn 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_(volcano)#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) [(Wang et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasises diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is T5: Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer [(Raffel et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which achieves an average score 89.3, just below the human baseline of 89.8\nThe SuperGLUE leaderboard may be accessed [here](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on SuperGLUE up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on any number training set(s). Performance is given in a \"score\", which is the average of various performance metrics (see [Wang et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) for more details).\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 266,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for \"[lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628),\" i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop.\nIt has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly \"slotted in\" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask:\nWhen will a robot exist that is able to completely assemble a generic Lego set? \nFor positive resolution, the system must be able to assemble on demand multiple possible production Lego sets of 50+ pieces. The box and bags may be open but the robot must turn the pages on the direction set. Credible video or report must exist of this being done. The robot can be a prototype rather than production model. Resolution can also be achieved by the existence of a robot that would, as judged by a robotics expert, very clearly be capable of assembling a Lego set.\n",
- "numforecasts": 299,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:07:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T18:33:24Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Woke index in US elite media top?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.\nResolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?\n---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). \n---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. \n---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) \n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6477/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-29-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nAccording to data from the recently launched [CoVariants.org](https://covariants.org/), the three variants in question — B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 — are [steadily increasing as a proportion of overall sequenced SARS-CoV-2 cases in the US](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). \nThe proportion of S:N501 among all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database in the US for the week of 2021-01-11 (2021-01-11 to 2021-01-17, inclusive) was [0.05, or 5%](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). Note that data for previous weeks are backfilled with sequences uploaded at later dates, so these percentages might change slightly over time — in other words, there is a lag between sequence collection and sequence upload.\nIn response to an increased incidence of S:N501 variants, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, further focus on contact tracing, and increase the rate of genomic sequencing.\nData sources and more information:\n---[Distribution of S:N501 per country](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) \n---[CoVariants](https://covariants.org/) \n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \n---[S gene dropout patterns in SARS-CoV-2 tests suggest spread of the H69del/V70del mutation in the US](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248814v1.full.pdf) \n---[Helix SARS-CoV-2 Viral Sequencing Trends](https://www.helix.com/pages/helix-covid-19-surveillance-dashboard) \nWhat will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of US S:N501 sequences among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing to the GISAID database between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive), as displayed on the \"Distribution of S:N501 per country\" plot on following website: [https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). This website pulls data from GISAID and makes it publicly accessible. This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-12.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-12T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. \nWith thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).\nITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. \nThe project aims to:\n--- \nMomentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).\n--- \nProduce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)\nCurrently, it aims to produce its first [\"small star\" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).\nBy the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?\nFor the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5112/will-uber-and-lyft-both-be-operating-in-california-on-june-1st-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From the [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53853708),\nUber and Lyft have been granted a reprieve in a row over drivers' employment rights in California after a court granted an emergency injunction.\nThe ride-hailing firms had threatened to suspend operations over an earlier ruling that they must classify drivers as employees, not contractors. But the reprieve allows them to continue operating while the court considers their case for appeal.\nThe court's decision came just hours before Lyft was due to halt rides. The court has ordered Uber and Lyft to both submit their plans for hiring employees by early September, and oral arguments in the case are set for mid-October. Lyft was due to stop its services in California at 23:59 local time on Thursday (06:59 GMT on Friday). [...]\n[Uber and Lyft] have always argued their drivers are self-employed contractors.\nBut a California law that came into effect earlier this year, known as AB5, extended employee classification to workers in the \"gig economy\". The judge's ruling that the law applied to both Uber and Lyft means the firms need to provide drivers with extra benefits, such as unemployment protection.\nBoth companies filed an appeal to the judgement - and asked for a stay on its enforcement while the courts dealt with the appeal. Unless the stay was granted, both companies had 10 days to undertake what they saw as a significant overhaul of their business in California.\nThey both warned that they could be forced to pull services from the state at the end of the day on Thursday. [...]\nThere is a potential way out for the ride-sharing firms in the coming months.\nA ballot that will be put to vote in November, at the same time as the US presidential election, would grant Uber and Lyft an exemption from the law. It is known as proposition 22. \"Your voice can help,\" Lyft wrote in its blog post about suspending services.\n\"Prop 22, proposes the necessary changes to give drivers benefits and flexibility, while maintaining the rideshare model that helps you get where you need to go,\" it said.\nThis question resolves positively if both Uber and Lyft are operating in California on June 1st 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nFor the sake of this question, \"operating in California\" is taken to mean that, in at least one city, general consumers can receive Uber and Lyft rides.\nDetermination is made via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\nWe believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \nThe size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\nPlease note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any country stop using cash currency?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. \nElectronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_(payment)) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).\nBut there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.\nThe currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [their ongoing trial to reduce coins](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-39639226), and [according to researchers](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/we-dont-take-cash-is-this-the-future-of-money.html?&qsearchterm=south%20korea%20to%20kill%20the%20coin) there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.\nWhen will the world see the first cashless society?\nResolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-06-29T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 353,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3434/philpapers-survey-mini-series-support-for-open-borders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n",
- "numforecasts": 180,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\nGiven that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\nRight ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\nIf that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\nSo, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? \nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-18T02:28:09Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 238,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nNuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)).\nOn the other hand, \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). Also see: [Pure fusion weapon — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon).\n\nDefinition\n==========\n\n\"The fusion energy gain factor, usually expressed with the symbol Q, is the ratio of fusion power produced in a nuclear fusion reactor to the power required to maintain the plasma in steady state. The condition of Q = 1, when the power being released by the fusion reactions is equal to the required heating power, is referred to as breakeven, or in some sources, scientific breakeven.\nThe energy given off by the fusion reactions may be captured within the fuel, leading to self-heating. Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5. If Q increases past this point, increasing self-heating eventually removes the need for external heating. At this point the reaction becomes self-sustaining, a condition called ignition. Ignition corresponds to infinite Q, and is generally regarded as highly desirable for practical reactor designs.\"\n(source: [Fusion energy gain factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor))\n\nResolution criteria\n===================\n\nIf a relevant Wikipedia page states that a fusion reactor has reached ignition, and continues to state that for at least 10 months in a 12 months period, this question gets resolved with the date mentioned on Wikipedia. If Wikipedia isn't active anymore, a paper replicating the fusion reactor ignition will confirm the resolution as the date at which the first paper reported ignition.\n\nRelated questions\n=================\n\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods).\nHowever, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543).\nHow will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?\nThe question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) \nThis question will resolve specifically according to the \"% change 2019-2020\" for the row \"Total new STI diagnoses - total\". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs.\nIf this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T09:06:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-01T10:06:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\nIt is asked:Will a living human set their foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC?\nResolution is by credible media report. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.\n",
- "numforecasts": 426,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 281,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next human being walk on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.\nLess than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and at this writing no human being has walked on the Moon since.\nWhen will the next human being walk on the Moon? \n",
- "numforecasts": 321,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-02-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-14T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to \"phone home\" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html).\nHow we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/):\nThe sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.\nAlas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports:\nThe Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts’ electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. “These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,” she said. “Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.” The spacecrafts’ transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. “One day we’ll be looking for the signal and we won’t hear it anymore,” Dodd said.\nWhat will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including [this cool passage](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-probable-fate-of-Voyagers-1-2):\nAbout [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don’t know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers’ current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record), humanity’s message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants\nIn any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void? \nQuestion will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n",
- "numforecasts": 479,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf):\nIn these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.\nIn this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?\nThe resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nRelated questions:\n---[Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/) \n---[World Population in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/) \n---[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](Will humans go extinct by 2100?) \n---[When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/) \n---[Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2300-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/208/to-the-stars-1-will-the-private-investment-in-laser-sail-extra-solar-travel-be-matched-by-a-comparable-amount-within-5-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Chemical rockets, while great for many purposes, will never get us far outside of the solar system. With the nearest stars parsecs away, reaching them in a human lifetime requires speeds of at least 10% the speed of light. As can be seen from the [rocket equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation), chemical rockets with exhaust speeds of a few km/s would require exponentially large mass to attain relativistic speeds of ~100,000 km/s. It's hopeless.\nUnless relativistic exhaust speeds can be obtained (difficult!), leaving the solar system will require external acceleration. A variety of schemes along these lines have been proposed over the years. \nFor example, the [\"starwisp\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starwisp) is a small nanowire mesh \"sail\" driven by the radiation pressure of reflected microwaves; the microwaves would be produced by a phased array of terrestrial or orbital dishes. \nRecently, a detailed study of laser-driven sails [was posted](http://www.deepspace.ucsb.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/A-Roadmap-to-Interstellar-Flight-15-h.pdf) proposing use of newly-developed ultra-high-reflectivity materials, and (now technically feasible) phased arrays of optical/IR lasers. High reflectivity allows acceleration without incineration; phased arrays allow a highly collimated beam without a laser of enormous diameter.\nWhile technically plausible, such systems would require large-scale investment in both R&D and deployment on the scale of at least a major NASA mission or large-scale particle physics project. \nThe possibility of this occurring just received a major boost with the announcement that entrepreneur and Philanthropist [Yuri Milner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Milner) has [committed $100 Million](http://breakthroughinitiatives.org) to a \"research and engineering program [that] will seek proof of concept for using light beam to propel gram-scale ‘nanocraft’ to 20% light speed.\" \nIn subsequent questions we will look at the probability of developing some of the necessary technologies to make a project like this a reality. Here gauge the overall prediction of success, as quantified by further investment joining Milner's, either before or after some of the results of the research it funds.\nBy April of 2021, will additional private or governmental sources provide a total commitment of funding to light-beam propulsion at least matching Milner's $100M?\nPrivate funding commitment would come in the form of a publicly-announced commitment like Milner's April 12 commitment; public commitment should come in the form of one or more allocated grants to institutions, or approved budget line-items at NASA or other government agencies.\n",
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-04-12T16:00:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-02-01T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n",
- "numforecasts": 293,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:34:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as \"midnight\" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of \"minutes\" (and [recently \"seconds\"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.\nIts original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.\nThis question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?\nThis resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement. \nIf resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to > 2100-01-01.\nIf either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T01:20:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\nThus we ask: \nWill we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n---three or more attacks over the span of one year, or \n---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years. \nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources \nand either of the following:\n---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or \n---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. \nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-25T11:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n",
- "numforecasts": 367,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.\nWhen will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?\n---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:\n------It is a headset, i.e. a device that attaches to one's head and displays content in front of one's eyes, rather than e.g. a neural chip or a holodeck room. \n------It is virtual reality, i.e. in primary usage it completely or almost completely occludes the outside world, rather than laying an image over it as in augmented reality. \n------It must have 6 degrees of freedom (6DoF tracking); that is, it must track both the 3-dimensional direction that the user is facing, and the 3-dimensional location of the user. \n------It must either be bundled with hand controllers which are similarly 6DoF-tracked, or such compatible controllers must be sold separately (first-party, not from an aftermarket manufacturer). In particular, PSVR qualifies due to the PS Move controllers. 6DoF hand-tracking without physical controllers may qualify only if it is sufficiently precise that it can recognize individual finger motions accurately enough to play 2016 VR games, as judged by the admins. \n------Phone adapters, etc. do not count (even if they had 6DoF tracking); the device in question must be marketed primarily as a headset. \n------There are no further restrictions on price, feature set, method of tracking, tethered vs. standalone, or computing power. \n------For clarity, the following current headsets qualify: HTC Vive family, Oculus Rift family, Oculus Quest, Valve Index, PSVR, Windows MR. \n------The following headsets do not qualify: Oculus Go, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard/Daydream, Magic Leap One, Microsoft Hololens. \n---This question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 10 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. \n---Sales are not prorated over time; for example, if a report indicates that 5 million headsets were sold in 2027, and 20 million were sold in 2028, this question resolves as December 31, 2028. If a manufacturer says that 12 million headsets were sold in Q1-Q3, this question resolves as the end of Q3, or September 30. \n---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of \"VR headsets\" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources. \n---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029. \n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n",
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-24T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. \nThe minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf). As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of extended low activity, similar to historical lapses such as the Dalton and Geissman minima. The onset of Solar Cycle 26 will either confirm existence of an extended period of low activity or, alternately, signal the close of what turns out to be merely a relatively brief suppression of cycle strength.\nDuring a run of weak cycles and feeble solar activity, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Over time, this will permit an increased amount of “space junk” to accumulate in low Earth orbit, leading to higher collision probabilities for satellites. Weak solar cycles are associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication, and in extreme cases, they can possibly influence Earth’s climate, as may have happened with the so-called [Maunder Minimum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) from 1645 to 1715, during which the Solar Cycle was suppressed and sunspots were rare.\nWhen will the next minimum after Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T02:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-02T02:25:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T09:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.\nOnce the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.\nThe deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands.\nWill EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?\nResolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n",
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2026. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger. \n[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo. \nWhat will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the lowest reported price per kilo in the month June, in 2022, of any plant-based beef (PBB) burger produced by Impossible Foods, and/or being marketed under the Impossible Foods brand, as indicated by credible reporting. The question shall resolve as the price in USD and in 2019 prices, adjusted for inflation using a commonly used U.S. CPI, such as one published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nCredible reporting of the price of the PBB burger's price should come from credible media reports, or photographic evidence of supermarkets' offline or online listings. Admin may choose to discount various evidence if it is judged that these are items are likely to be mislabelled, or due to glitches on websites, etc.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the PBB burger for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other special price structures that are only available for limited time, or to a strict subset of the supermarket's shoppers.\nPBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements for beef by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of beef, and are marketed as doing such.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nThe question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n",
- "numforecasts": 437,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-23T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-02-10T00:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 138,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
- "numforecasts": 571,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
- "numforecasts": 404,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 429,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&qid=1550223728&s=gateway&sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.\nQuestion: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?\nResolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nTo find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\nTherefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-11T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
- "numforecasts": 370,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:\n--- \nEnsure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.\n--- \nBuild a stronger, more resilient nation.\n--- \nRally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change\n--- \nStand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities.\n--- \nFulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth.\nIn order to predict the success of these polices, I ask:\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\nResolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\n",
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-09-29T07:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
- "numforecasts": 279,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will we have micropayments?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n",
- "numforecasts": 259,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:13:54Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-31T20:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T20:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 198,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
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- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:\n--- \n[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n--- \n[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n--- \n[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)\n--- \n[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n--- \n[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n--- \n[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and \n--- \n[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)\nA correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.\nThis question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.\n",
- "numforecasts": 236,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-28T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\nIn the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nWill 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. grams, of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.\nFor the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).\nMoreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on June 14, 2021, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T21:18:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2005 at 68.31%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2021 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 191,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many communist states will there be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.\nSimultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict).\nThe question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"communist state\" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.\nThis question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.\nIn March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).\nWhat will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Universe end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations. \nFrom [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):\nChandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come. \nBut for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? \nQuestion resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-02-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n",
- "numforecasts": 474,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/).\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)\nOn January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.\nIf Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?\nResolution:\n---Determination of whether Trump was elected will be based on the resolution of this question: [Will Trump be re-elected president in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) \n---If Trump is not re-elected for any reason, this question resolves according to the number of lawful permanent residents reported by the Office of Immigration Statistics for January 1, 2022. \n---If Trump is re-elected or if the Office of Immigration Statistics does not report the relevant statistics before January 1 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. \nThe report with data for 2015 to 2019 can be found on [this website](https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics).\nOther possible world:\n---[If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5125/if-trump-is-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will The Simpsons air its final episode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Simpsons has been a [phenomenally successful](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/) television property. \nTV Insider called it \"the Most Powerful TV Show of All Time\" and [reported](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/): \nThere’s no end to the marketing mania surrounding The Simpsons: More than 500 companies license the characters, and merchandise sales are now closing in on $5 billion. \nAs [Esquire reported](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a50861/the-simpsons-al-jean-interview/) back in 2016: \nThe Simpsons has just been renewed for a historic 29th and 30th season, making it the longest-running primetime TV show of all time. To put that in perspective, FXX is airing every single episode of The Simpsons consecutively in the longest TV marathon of all time. It will take 13 days. \nBart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laughingsquid.com/how-old-the-simpson-family-would-be/) than his father, Homer was when the series began.\nHow long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)?\n(Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.\nThis could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:\nWhat will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?\nPrices can be queried [here](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/). Current prices as of writing are given as follows:\n--- \nTallinn to Amsterdam: €1013-€1352, with a median of €1183\n--- \nAmsterdam to Lisbon: €2730-€3641, with a median of €3186\n--- \nLisbon to Athens: €2184-€2913, with a median of €2549 \nHence the sum of the medians for each rides is €1183+€3186+€2549=€6918.\nResolution:\n---Resolution is by [Uber's estimator](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/), or the app if the former is not available.\n------if only given a range, take the median. \n---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride. \n---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00. \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-06-12T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as \"an existential threat to our community\".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/)\n[CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/)\n[Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron)\n[Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/discord-bans-wallstreetbets-as-subreddit-briefly-goes-private/)\nWill the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporarily or permanently banned from the Reddit platform. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 379,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.\nThe country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.\nWhen, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?\nFor this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as \">2050\". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.\nThe question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.\nIn the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_(1)_(%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh)_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1193,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority:\n---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination \n---A report from another body of the United Nations \n---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson \n---A report by another credible source \nIf the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0.\nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an internationally recognized currency, the value given will be converted to United States dollars using the [ UN Operational Rates of Exchange](https://treasury.un.org/operationalrates/default.php). If the UN Operational Rates of Exchange do not exist at that time, any other method of conversion may be used subject to the discretion of Metaculus admins. \nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is no longer used internationally, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2052-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "It is widely acknowledged that a steady push toward autonomous automobiles is underway. Many new vehicles contain several partial-autonomous features, and a number of near-autonomous or fully-autonomous vehicles are in development for consumer use. \nA key example is the Tesla 3, which (along with all future Teslas) will contain \"[full self-driving hardware](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware)\", and many speculate could be delivered with full autonomy. Elon Musk has [predicted](https://www.inverse.com/article/15200-elon-musk-half-of-all-cars-in-8-years-will-be-fully-autonomous) that \"Half of all cars in 7 or 8 years will be fully autonomous.\"\nAnother [detailed report](http://mashable.com/2016/08/26/autonomous-car-timeline-and-tech/#VjYfNZPtIEqZ) indicates level 4 autonomous cars available at some level from Audi in the late 2020s, from Ford and BMW in 2021, Nissan in 2020, Kia in 2030, Honda at some point, Tesla in 2018, and Volvo in 2017(!).\nThese could all constitute interesting separate questions, but here we'll ask a combined question inspired by Musk's prediction.\nIn what year will half of all new automobiles sold in the US be fully autonomous? \nFor specifics, we'll define \"fully autonomous\" using the NHTSA \"level 4\" designation:\nThe vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.\nWe'll also specify that \"cars\" really means \"cars,\" i.e. trucks are excluded. Resolution is by credible industry estimates.\n",
- "numforecasts": 361,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-22T17:36:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:29:30Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.\nDue to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. \nWe shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?\nWe shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.\nThe question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. \nResolution shall be by credible media report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 317,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.\nA promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)\nThere are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.\nNonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example [this startup](http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/news/26902/george-churchs-startup-testing-pig-organs-in-primates/) is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.\nWhen will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? \nThe organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define \"successful\" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 99,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was \"disgusted\" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are \"[explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html).\"\nWhen will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?\nThis question resolves when the letters in question are made public.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2149-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
- "numforecasts": 716,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.\nThere are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?\nThe [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:\nIn 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? \nQuestion will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.\n",
- "numforecasts": 207,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-07-22T19:47:11Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\nSpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \">2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-11-10T15:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-11-10T15:19:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second.\nCurrently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. \nHowever, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. \nTo take this into account, we shall here assume that theoretical cost figures (such as reported by hardware manufacturers are 10 times too low), setting current costs at $272.70 per TFLOPS. Getting to below $1 would therefore amount to a orders of magnitude reduction in cost per TFLOPS.\nInterestingly, [according to some estimates](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/), a reduction in computing costs of roughly 2-3 orders of magnitude could place the cost of computation at the brain's communication performance in the range of human wages (around a couple hundred dollars per hour).\nWhen will a TFLOPS cost less than $1?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports a TFLOPS for Tensor, or single/double precision performance to cost less than $1 using reliable performance measurement techniques. The usual theoretical price estimates given by manufacturers will be multiplied up by a factor of 10 for the sake of this question (hence requiring a $0.1 theoretical cost per TFLOPS for positive resolution).\nPrices will be adjusted to 2018 prices using the [ Domestic Producer Prices Index: Manufacturing for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIEAMP01USA661N).\n",
- "numforecasts": 139,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-04T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-03T15:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. \nMDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.\nNon-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?\nThis question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.\n",
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-04-10T03:32:13Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1382,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.\nThe claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.\nLet's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. \nResolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. \"Major Chinese city\" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nLevels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index).\nIn the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission). For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html). As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerability to the influence of solar weather increases apace. \nOn occasion (and independently of the longer-term changes in upper atmospheric temperature and density triggered by the solar cycle) the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field during geomagnetic storms can produce short-term [increases in the temperature and density of Earth’s thermosphere, increasing drag around satellites](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Increased drag in turn decreases the interval over which a satellite can orbit without re-adjustment. In the absence of maintenance boosting, low-earth satellites will [lose altitude and eventually re-enter the atmosphere](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/40-years-ago-skylab-reenters-earth-s-atmosphere).\nWhat will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-11T02:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:12:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 412,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is \"Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur.\" As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030?\nWhat will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-27T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&feature=youtu.be&t=1h30m02s) was that, \"Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.\nWe ask:\nWhat will be the best bits-per-character compression of the Hutter Prize at the end of 2022? \nTo calculate the current bits-per-character(*), [click here for the Hutter Prize records table](http://www.hutter1.net/prize/index.htm#prev), look in the \"Total Size\" column for most-recently awarded value, multiply by 8 and divide by .\n(*) Strictly speaking, this is \"bits-per-byte\" but this relaxation of definitions is quite common in computerdom.\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-09T11:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-11T11:36:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be a mile-high building?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.)\nBut guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark.\nAmong them:\n--- \nThe Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 \n--- \nIn 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/merdeka-pnb118/10115) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will nip at the Burj's heels at 2,113 feet.\nBut when will a skyscraper join the mile high club? \nThe Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. But the obstacles are formidable. As [CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/tokyo-mile-high-skyscraper/index.html): \nAt that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. \"The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,\" the report explains. \nIt seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?\n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n",
- "numforecasts": 798,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with > 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 527,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). \nWe might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) \"[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/).\nWhen will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when two or more supermarketets in the United States offers a clean fish product for human consumption for sale in physical locations in at least 25 states. The product must contain at least 8 grams of clean fish. The clean fish containing product must cost less than $25 per 100 grams.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-09-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India become a World Bank high-income country?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.\nGNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. \nThe World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006 and $3,955, while upper-middle economies have per capita GNIs between $3,956 and $12,056. India at $6,490 in 2016 was thus about 50% below the threshold for high-income status. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. China and India together hold nearly one-third of humanity and continue to be increasingly influential players in the global economy.\n[A list of countries and territories considered high-income by the World Bank can be viewed here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy) Note that over time the World Bank has [revised the nominal dollar threshold for high-income status](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy#Historical_thresholds), and it is highly probable that they will continue to do so in the future. \nThe threshold for high-income status currently stands at $12,056 gross national income per capita US$, calculated using [the Atlas method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_method). \nThe high-income threshold was originally set in 1989 at US$6,000 in 1987 prices. Thresholds for subsequent years were adjusted taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nThis question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the World Bank?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.\n",
- "numforecasts": 148,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-23T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 262,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?\nThe question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.\nThis question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).\nIf fewer than two relevant studies are available in 2021, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe Metaculus results will be reported using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \nThis question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), \"the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,\" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is \"an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).\"\nWhile the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.\nWhat will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?\n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Tunnel vs. Wall",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \nAm going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\nIt shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\nI am really going to do this.\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\nBy start of 2025, will there be more Tunnel than Wall? \nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.\n",
- "numforecasts": 567,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-02-25T16:51:45Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Triplebyte](https://triplebyte.com/) is a software engineering certification company that works with engineers to find jobs. Recently, [they added a path](https://triplebyte.com/blog/announcing-triplebyte-for-machine-learning-engineers) for machine learning engineers and data scientists. Triplebyte also generally releases [salary data](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/) for engineers who pass their interview process. However, their ML/data science path has apparently not been available for long enough to provide median salary data on their salary information page (currently, when you select \"ML / Data Science\" on the page, it does not change the distribution). Hopefully by 2023, the data will be available.\nWhat will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?\nIf by January 1st 2023, Triplebyte reveals the median salary for ML/data science engineers who passed their interview, then this question resolves on the median salary value in US dollars on that date (which can currently be found [here](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/)). If Triplebyte releases data on ML engineers and data scientists separately, then the median salary for ML engineers should determine resolution. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Trump flee the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\nI'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\nnotany replied,\n@Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n@notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.\nWill Trump flee the United States?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s.\nIn June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9.\nThis relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far.\nWould we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030.\nResolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone.\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5777/astrazeneca-vaccine-1%25C2%25BD-dose-more-effective/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) \nThe preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.\n...\nAstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.\nThe half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)\nAround the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.\nThey soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.\n“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.\nSince the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.\nWill AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?\nThis question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. \nThis question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p>.05.)\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T18:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T17:40:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 120,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 296,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n",
- "numforecasts": 2107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. \nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) \nNeedless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.\nElon Musk: [\"From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)\n[\"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)\n[\"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)\n[You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human? \nYou can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.\nNote that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. \nResolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \nThe cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk [announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet](http://www.spacex.com/mars), which he codenamed the \"[BFR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket))\".\nSpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.\nYet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the [numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png), even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?\nWe shall define a \"reusable manner\" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.\nFor a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)\nResolution is by credible media report.\nClosing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.\n",
- "numforecasts": 571,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe MiniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved for one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Only models trained on MiniImageNet's data qualify—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 314,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.\nThis question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?\nResolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.\nNote that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and [ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 301,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Covid-19](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)). The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus).\nVarious research groups [have started work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus#Vaccine_research) on a vaccine to fight the virus, with [some](https://web.archive.org/web/20200125203723/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-vaccines-idUSKBN1ZN2J8) hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.\nQuestion: When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?\nDetails:\n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when one vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.\nThe first Covid-19 vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: \n---Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against Covid-19. \n---Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other. \n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against Covid-19\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as >Mar 14, 2027. If it's not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
- "numforecasts": 419,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-05-05T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?\nResolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).\nBy average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-11T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals that are approved by the FDA by the end of July, 2025, for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" or \"animal drugs\" are “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals” [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals anytime before the end of July, 2025. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/) resolves positively before the end of July, 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Apple car be unveiled?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/979/when-will-the-apple-car-be-unveiled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For quite some time, Apple has apparently been working hard on some sort of car. Details are very sketchy, but what is known at of mid-2018 is laid out pretty comprehensively in [this article](http://www.motortrend.com/news/apple-car-exclusive/). It suggests a launch date of 2019, but not with any real confidence. \nWe'll ask:\nWhen will the Apple car be officially announced? \nThe announcement will presumably take the form of Tim Cook or someone being on stage with an Apple car that appears to function, but any other formal announcement will count as long as it is officially from Apple, and somehow includes an actual physical car. (This need not be a production model, or even function, but you should be able to sit in it.)\nNote that \"never\" is an option here, included with any date after June 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5051/what-percentage-of-absentee-ballots-will-be-rejected-in-the-2020-us-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2016, [1% of absentee ballots were rejected](https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf). 27.5% of rejections were for the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state's records, 20% of rejections were for missing a signature, and 23.1% of rejections were because the ballot was not recieved on time.\nRecently, a [round of cost-cutting measures in the postal service](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/8/7/21358946/postal-service-mail-delays-election-trump-mail-in-ballots) combined with [Trump openly opposing additional funding due to mail-in voting](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/trump-opposes-usps-funding-394692) have meant that the postal service has wrote to 46 states and Washington DC that it [cannot guarantee](https://www.vox.com/2020/8/15/21369968/postal-service-trump-mail-ballot) that mail-in ballots sent by the usual deadlines will be recieved in time and advises that they be sent well in advance of the election. This raises the risk that many otherwise valid mail-in and absentee ballots will be rejected due to arriving late.\nWhat percentage of absentee ballots returned and submitted for counting in the US 2020 election will be rejected?\nResolution will be by the figure given in the 2020 [Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) Comprehensive Report](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports).\n",
- "numforecasts": 222,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well. \nThe question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2042-01-02T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.\n[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).\nOn what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?\n1-- \nThe reported >=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent.\n2-- \nIf the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 2025, the question resolves as > Sep 15, 2025.\n3-- \nThe \"mining pool\" could either be a shared pool among unassociated miners, or a massive operation by a single entity.\n4-- \nNote that in hash rate distribution charts, \"Unknown\" does not necessarily mean a single unidentified mining pool is taking up that much hash rate, but simply that they aren't identified. To count for resolution, a pool must be discernibly combining their hash rate. If the hash rate from \"Unknown\" miners ever attained >=50% of the hash rate, but there were no reports to suggest a coordinated mining operation was taking up >=50% of the hash rate, then that does not count to positive resolution.\n5-- \nOne possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with >50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with >50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-09-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-09-15T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male \"pill\") on the US market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017. \nWhen will such contraception be available to US men?\nFor resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.) \nIt must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-11-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-08-05T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.\nSince biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Per [Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index)\nThe Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education (Literacy Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio at different levels and Net Attendance Ratio), and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.\n[The HDI of the world](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) has been increasing or stayed the same every year since its inception in 1990. However, according to the [World Bank](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-effect-new-data), the COVID-19 pandemic \"is likely to push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. [...] Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades.\" \nIn 2019, the HDI of the world was 0.731. The smallest change in a single year has been +0.000 (0.601 in 1992, 0.601 in 1993), and the largest change has been +0.007, which has occurred three times (0.601-0.608 1993-1994, 0.624-0.631 1997-1998, 0.669-0.676 2005-2006).\nWhat will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?\nThe question resolves according to the [Human Development Index](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) for 2020. If that site is down, the Metaculus admins have the discretion to choose a reliable source. The question resolves when the 2020 world HDI is first made publicly available, and resolves ambiguously if it is not made publicly available by 2023.\nThe Human Development Index for 2020 will almost definitely be on the 2021 Human Development Report, not the 2020 Human Development Report. \n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. \nThey have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition \"harvest moon\" set to be in 2021.\nThis question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:\nWill they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? \nQuestion resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-16T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The era of YouTube superstars is upon us. Earlier this year, MTV catalogued 10 YouTube stars who are earning [8 figure incomes](http://www.mtv.com.au/youtube/news/heres-a-list-of-the-richest-youtubers-of-2018) off the platform. Topping the list is DanTDM, a gaming commentator who's raking in over $16 million. Wow.\nThese folks are in a [rare category](https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/even-youtube-stars-with-14-million-monthly-viewers-earn-less-than-17000-a-year-research-shows.html). But it is only a matter of time before one of these YouTube celebrities leverages their fame to run for high public office. The question is really not if, but when, will this happen?\nIn order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:\n---A person becomes widely known to the public FIRST via a vlog on YouTube and gets at least 1M subscribers... \n---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins. \nWhen will this first happen?\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-11-07T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Disneyland reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4116/when-will-disneyland-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Much of the US economy is shut down in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis. At some point, businesses will reopen, likely starting with those that are important to everyday life and do not involve large groups of people. A reasonable proxy for the general reopening of the economy is the reopening of Disneyland in California as it is not critical to everyday life and does involve large crowds. If Disneyland is open, it means everything probably is as well.\nIf Disneyland in Anaheim, California reopens its doors to the public, on what day will it first do so? For the purpose of this question, the reopening day is the first day when all of the following are satisfied:\n---The Disneyland website (currently hosted [here](https://disneyland.disney.go.com/destinations/disneyland/)) is accessible and does not indicate that the park is closed (it currently has a notice about temporary closure) \n---Tickets to the park can be bought on that website \n---At least three pictures of people visiting the park for fun are published on social media or press \n",
- "numforecasts": 378,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-24T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the value of the (herein described) \"AI winter index\" at end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/974/what-will-be-the-value-of-the-herein-described-ai-winter-index-at-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There as been discussion in mid-2018 as to whether AI research may be entering a new \"winter,\" as argued in [this article](https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/04/the-ai-winter-is-well-on-its-way/). We shall define an index as follows:\n--- \n+1 if on Dec. 1, 2021 [5-year Google trends search](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=%22AI%20winter%22) on \"AI winter\" shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak (which is 100 at launch) to be at < 25, indicating that a value four times as large has occurred between those two dates; -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if two or more keynote talks at NIPS or IJCAI contain the phrase \"AI winter\" in any of those two meetings taking place in 2020 and 2021. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if the fraction of [listed YC funded startups](https://yclist.com) that mention \"AI\" or \"machine learning\" in their description is lower in the first half of 2021 than in the first half of 2018. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if search of the CS section of the arXiv for abstracts containing \"artificial intelligence\" OR \"machine learning\" for jan-may 2021 returns less than 3000 items, about 50% more than the [corresponding search for 2018](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22artificial+intelligence%22&terms-0-field=abstract&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22machine+learning%22&terms-1-field=abstract&classification-physics_archives=all&date-year=2018&date-filter_by=date_range&date-from_date=2018-01-01&date-to_date=2018-06-01&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). -1 otherwise. (For reference, 2018 returns 1922; 2017 returns 756; 2016 returns 420.)\n--- \n+1 if the ratio of results returns in the above archive search limited to \"machine learning\" divided by those limited to \"artificial intelligence\" is higher in 2021 than the 2018 value of 1752/233 = 7.52; -1 otherwise.\nAny of the above can resolve ambiguously if there is not a good consensus resolution based on reliable data. If the total number of items that resolve unambiguously is N, the index is given by the total score divided by N.\nWhat will be the late-2021 value of the AI winter index? \n",
- "numforecasts": 295,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the United States admit a new state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:37:57Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T21:33:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Disease:\nis a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs.\nAccording to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. \nFuturists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp),\nWould it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? That a time will come when death would result only from extraordinary accidents or the more and more gradual wearing out of vitality, and that, finally, the duration of the average interval between birth and wearing out has itself no specific limit whatsoever? No doubt man will not become immortal, but cannot the span constantly increase between the moment he begins to live and the time when naturally, without illness or accident, he finds life a burden?\nThis question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) < 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.\nOne such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2090-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2125-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\nThus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n1-- \nAlready-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n2-- \nAlternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will programs write programs for us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since the early days of \"machine code\" programming using a very limited instruction set, more and more high-level programming languages have been developed that layer atop this fundamental level. It is common, for example, have a Python script that calls a routine written in C and compiled into machine code. Other languages (like Mathematica) are even higher-level. Still, even a high-level language requires unambiguous specification of the steps required for the task at hand. \nIt would be much nicer to specify the desired task rather than exactly how to do it, i.e. to have systems that can write programs to specification. Such systems have had limited success so far, but there are signs of significant progress. [This recent review](https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx), for example, mentions new efforts to \"induce\" programs from a large set of input-output pairs. [A paper by Neelakantan, Le, and Sutskever](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04834), for instance, introduce a \"Neural Programmer,\" which augments a neural network with a set of basic operations that the network can be trained to use to solve a task; they showed success in training the network to reproduce the action of a set of simple programs.\nWhile machine learning (ML) systems like the Neural Programmer don't quite output (say) Python programs written to some specification, they do create a program to accomplish a particular task. Given a system to translate a specification into a trainable task, and to translate the Neural Programmer's instruction list into a typical language, this may not be that far away, at least for simple programming tasks. So we ask:\nHow long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python? \nAs a concrete challenge, we'll ask that in 2 of 5 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the first two sections of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. To avoid making this mostly about language parsing, the plaintext specification can be \"translated\" by a human operator into a plaintext description of lesser length prior to input into the ML system, so that the system functions something like a very high-level programming language. (This still leaves a major challenge of a system that turns the specification into a task for which the neural network can be trained.) \nThe existence of such a system will be determined by actual demonstration, OR by agreement by two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists.\n",
- "numforecasts": 265,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:23:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.\nIn an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.\nIf a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\n--- \nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. \n--- \nIt resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.\n--- \nThe question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-11-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-23T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.\nWhat will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?\nWhen the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.\nAs of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131.\nIf the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-01T07:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:43:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nIn particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \nThe risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.\nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
- "numforecasts": 134,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2094-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-07-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first exaflop performer appear?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website [top500.org](https:/www.top500.org) maintains [a list of the top 500 supercomputers](https://www.top500.org/lists/2016/11/), on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots. \nViewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).\nAccording to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.\nComputational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is \"exa\", as in exaflop performance consisting of one [quintillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.\nAt what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on [Top500.org?](http://Top500.org?) (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-01-05T05:13:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-07T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related question:\n---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) \nEconomic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:\nWhat will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?\nThis resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as\nthis question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. \n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n",
- "numforecasts": 341,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. \nFor the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.\nNot included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.\nHow many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?\nIn the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T23:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n",
- "numforecasts": 262,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 94,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 176,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.\nWhen completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to \"study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.\"\nPer [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),\n[the INO] is an underground project and will comprise a complex of caverns. The main cavern, which will house the huge neutrino detector [50-kilo tonne magnetised iron calorimeter], will be 130 m long, 26 m wide, and 30 m high. Two smaller caverns will be used for setting up experiments for neutrino double detector and dark matter.\nOf course, the project has not been without setbacks. Locals at Western Ghats voiced concerns about radiation and environmental damage. And neutrino detectors are [incredibly sensitive](https://www.quora.com/How-do-neutrino-detectors-work) and fickle machines. And even when they work properly, the process of detecting a neutrino--and then [confirming that detection](https://icecube.wisc.edu/outreach/neutrinos) carefully--can be achingly slow.\nTo that end, on what date will researchers publicly announce the first confirmed neutrino detection at INO? \nResolution should be triggered by an official announcement from the research group that a detection has been achieved (even if not published). If necessary, a 99.9% confidence level for detection can be specified.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool.\nConstruction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. \nRebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is.\nThey've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever.\nAs this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes:\nThe Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic processes can turn an ocean into the Rockies in that time frame, it will make short work of the pyramids. \nThis other Quora post gives a [more precise assessment](https://www.quora.com/If-left-to-the-elements-when-will-the-pyramids-of-Egypt-erode): \nKnowing that the pyramids 4000 years ago were made of polished limestone that would have glowed, we can say that it has eroded over time. I am not sure what the exact rate of limestone degradation is, and you could probably work it out by that rate, but by what I can see, around 2 layers of blocks and various bits have fallen from the sides of the larger pyramid. Many people have said that the pyramids would last 1 million years or even until the world ended, but I’d say around 10,000 to 100,000 years based on current observations.\nWhat do you think? Assuming that humans do not intervene but the pyramids are just left to nature's tender mercies, how many years will it take, before the Great Pyramids are all eroded away into undetectability?\n(Needless to say, this is one of those questions unlikely to be resolved on a timescale anyone cares about; it's just for fun.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2134-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-02-20T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2048-01-19T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8999860766695875619471546064478487",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1000139233304124380528453935521513",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "850",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03761913118139671975368716980885902",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.962380868818603280246312830191141",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "152",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1400736035928692911440260279913681",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8599263964071307088559739720086319",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "87",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9371314398573680504652377356106168",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.06286856014263194953476226438938325",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "91",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "0",
- "probability": "0.4340876940115133782146219093820505",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1",
- "probability": "0.3329396760476596955599754174467932",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2",
- "probability": "0.2329726299408269262254026731711563",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "158",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07278348450671392133713530102707062",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9272165154932860786628646989729294",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "127",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9607928070787265821137549067928738",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.03920719292127341788624509320712615",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "480",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.137768459510460088156237908371624",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.862231540489539911843762091628376",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will The Weeknd’s Nifty Gateway drop generate in total sales?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-weeknds-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-in-total-sales",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on what The Weeknd’s NFT drop on April 3, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on April 3, 2021, via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve 48 hours later, on April 5, 2:00 PM ET, according to data published for the entirety of The Weeknd’s drop. The bracket which resolves to “Yes” will be the one which corresponds to the total sales of The Weeknd’s NFT drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, each bracket will resolve equally to 20:20:20:20:20. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than $5M",
- "probability": "0.9970844774081486673702853220465268",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$5M to less than $10M",
- "probability": "0.002252133247187208361756349059784681",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$10M to less than $20M",
- "probability": "0.0002224270844625515253444555684127745",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$20M to less than $30M",
- "probability": "0.0002204809271256202801753957153618757",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$30M or more",
- "probability": "0.0002204813330759524624384776099138952",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "164",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $5M, $5M to less than $10M, $10M to less than $20M, $20M to less than $30M, $30M or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
- "address": "0xDB3b1c991c09B5a46911B9f991924A5A3639D676",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
- "outcomes": [
- "Yes",
- "No"
- ],
- "options": [],
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03420631250384755319461498321788003",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.96579368749615244680538501678212",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "127",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05944227492041401588695338806455382",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9405577250795859841130466119354462",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "450",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5576042441166223717836837081986532",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4423957558833776282163162918013468",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "484",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1272135716023695101901625708147504",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8727864283976304898098374291852496",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "86",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03925864458252690418984879310071039",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9607413554174730958101512068992896",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "105",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.02133163057367735072211258195805924",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9786683694263226492778874180419408",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "760",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7576761787844405298841269979213791",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2423238212155594701158730020786209",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "1037",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4390479478378078263686834451491899",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5609520521621921736313165548508101",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "319",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49,999 or fewer",
- "probability": "0.01245159215307202152905888614012675",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50,000-62,499",
- "probability": "0.3852702140466881649880817103981702",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62,500-74,999",
- "probability": "0.5850094210925269969320208739163795",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75,000 or more",
- "probability": "0.01726877270771281655083852954532348",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "146",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49,999 or fewer, 50,000-62,499, 62,500-74,999, 75,000 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7322458281307298454159110622578949",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2677541718692701545840889377421051",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "67",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1976957257819044650117159330637653",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8023042742180955349882840669362347",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "406",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bezos",
- "probability": "0.8905974567101949679276675804783593",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Musk",
- "probability": "0.1094025432898050320723324195216407",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "293",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5192307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4423076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4653465346534653,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.40196078431372545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5398230088495575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.20353982300884954,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.061946902654867256,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.017699115044247787,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paperboy Prince",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Fernando Mateo",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Curtis Sliwa, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.39603960396039606,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.8737864077669902,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
- "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer McClellan",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Fairfax",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lee Carter",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nShould no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Terry McAuliffe, Jennifer Carroll Foy, Jennifer McClellan, Justin Fairfax, Lee Carter"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.3620689655172413,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.3017241379310344,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.12068965517241378,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.051724137931034475,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.043103448275862065,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.025862068965517238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.017241379310344827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Ralph Brinkhaus, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kirk Cox",
- "probability": 0.49056603773584906,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Snyder",
- "probability": 0.2169811320754717,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amanda Chase",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neil Chatterjee",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmett Hanger",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Stanley",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kirk Cox, Pete Snyder, Glenn Youngkin, Amanda Chase, Neil Chatterjee, Emmett Hanger, Bill Stanley"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.2123893805309734,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.16814159292035394,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.0973451327433628,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.07964601769911502,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.06194690265486724,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.05309734513274335,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061946,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061946,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061946,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.03539823008849557,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.03539823008849557,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371674,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371674,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371674,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371674,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.017699115044247784,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.43362831858407075,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.34513274336283184,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07964601769911503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.061946902654867256,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.026548672566371678,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, Jon Santiago, John Barros, A. Essaibi-George, Marty Walsh"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.29999999999999993,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.28181818181818175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.18181818181818177,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.06363636363636363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gibbons",
- "probability": 0.04545454545454544,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727264,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727264,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.018181818181818177,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Johnson",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jane Timken, J. D. Vance, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Mike Gibbons, Jim Jordan, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.5304347826086956,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.3565217391304347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Troy Carter, Karen Peterson, Chelsea Ardoin, Belden Batiste, Claston Bernard, Gary Chambers, Harold John, Christopher Johnson, Brandon Jolicoeur, Lloyd Kelly, Greg Lirette, Mindy McConnell, Desiree Ontiveros, Jenette Porter, Sheldon Vincent Sr."
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.8962264150943395,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Francisco Sagasti",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Jair Bolsonaro, Daniel Ortega, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Hassan Rouhani",
- "probability": 0.45370370370370366,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.35185185185185186,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.09259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Jong-un",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Suga Yoshihide, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6274509803921569,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.37254901960784315,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Alvin Bragg",
- "probability": 0.4117647058823529,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tali Weinstein",
- "probability": 0.34313725490196073,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eliza Orlins",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Quart",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lucy Lang",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyrus Vance",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Diana Florence",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Crotty",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Tali Weinstein, Tahanie Aboushi, Eliza Orlins, Dan Quart, Lucy Lang, Cyrus Vance, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
- "probability": 0.27999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
- "probability": 0.25999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.14999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
- "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
- "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Kagame",
- "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
- "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
- "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Paul Kagame, Nana Akufo-Addo, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "13",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "17",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "19",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20",
- "probability": 0.5660377358490566,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "21",
- "probability": 0.27358490566037735,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "22",
- "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "12 or fewer, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jon Sallet",
- "probability": 0.6120689655172413,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jonathan Kanter",
- "probability": 0.2672413793103448,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Renata Hesse",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deborah Feinstein",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Davies",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave Gelfand",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steven Sunshine",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Terrell McSweeny",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Leibowitz",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Juan Arteaga",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gigi Sohn",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Edward Smith",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Einer Elhauge",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Douglas Melamed",
- "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrés Arauz",
- "probability": 0.7156862745098039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.27450980392156865,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yaku Pérez",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrés Arauz, Guillermo Lasso, Yaku Pérez"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Jair Bolsonaro, Justin Trudeau, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley, Emilia Sykes"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.7058823529411764,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.11764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.049019607843137254,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "62 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 or 64",
- "probability": 0.1714285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 or 66",
- "probability": 0.3142857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "67 or 68",
- "probability": 0.24761904761904763,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "69 or 70",
- "probability": 0.07619047619047618,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 or 72",
- "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "73 or 74",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75 or 76",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 or 78",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "79 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "62 or fewer, 63 or 64, 65 or 66, 67 or 68, 69 or 70, 71 or 72, 73 or 74, 75 or 76, 77 or 78, 79 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Costello",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Everett Stern",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Dent",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Guy Reschenthaler, Donald Trump Jr., Ryan Costello, Everett Stern, Charlie Dent"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6633663366336634,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.33663366336633666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5294117647058824,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.47058823529411764,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Shalanda Young",
- "probability": 0.4857142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nani Coloretti",
- "probability": 0.16190476190476188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Martha Coven",
- "probability": 0.08571428571428569,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Bernstein",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Lu",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Bianchi",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thea Lee",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heather Boushey",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gene Sperling",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonal Shah",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann O'Leary",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neera Tanden",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Jones",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Sarah Bianchi, Thea Lee, Heather Boushey, Gene Sperling, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, John Jones"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rob Bonta",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xavier Becerra",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Rosen",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Diana Becton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Darrell Steinberg",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Goodwin Liu",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anna Caballero",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Xavier Becerra, Adam Schiff, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton, Darrell Steinberg, Goodwin Liu, Anna Caballero"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.5130434782608695,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.2869565217391304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.05217391304347825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.043478260869565216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Mark Rutte, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Pedro Sánchez, Viktor Orbán, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yonhy Lescano",
- "probability": 0.3831775700934579,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hernando de Soto",
- "probability": 0.21495327102803738,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.14018691588785046,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.12149532710280374,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Forsyth",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Urresti",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "César Acuña",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Beingolea",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Julio Guzmán",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ollanta Humala",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Salaverry",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Keiko Fujimori, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Susan Wright",
- "probability": 0.7850467289719626,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jana Sanchez",
- "probability": 0.12149532710280374,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jake Ellzey",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Rodimer",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katrina Pierson",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sery Kim",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Harrison",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lydia Bean",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shawn Lassiter",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Jake Ellzey, Dan Rodimer, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Brian Harrison, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lorena González",
- "probability": 0.49504950495049505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jessyn Farrell",
- "probability": 0.2079207920792079,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Colleen Echohawk",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lance Randall",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jenny Durkan",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Donaldson",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Bruce Harrell, Colleen Echohawk, Lance Randall, Andrew Grant Houston, Jenny Durkan, James Donaldson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nicholas Burns",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rahm Emanuel",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Shambaugh",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Kritenbrink",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill, David Shambaugh, Charlene Barshefsky, Dan Kritenbrink"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Carr",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoff Duncan",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Vernon Jones, Chris Carr, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Geoff Duncan, Brian Kemp"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.2079207920792079,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.4059405940594059,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.36633663366336633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vicky Hartzler",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Brunner",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Billy Long, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.37623762376237624,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.27722772277227725,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.2376237623762376,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Forest",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Burr",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Meadows",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "38 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "39",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42",
- "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "43",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "44 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "38 or fewer, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9 votes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or 11 votes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12 or 13 votes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or 15 votes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16 or 17 votes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18 or 19 votes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20 or more",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the \"Tie Votes\" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).\nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "3 votes, 4 or 5 votes, 6 or 7 votes, 8 or 9 votes, 10 or 11 votes, 12 or 13 votes, 14 or 15 votes, 16 or 17 votes, 18 or 19 votes, 20 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.8235294117647058,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.1764705882352941,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tishaura Jones, Cara Spencer"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.3076923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "R House, D Senate",
- "probability": 0.28846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.2788461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "D House, R Senate",
- "probability": 0.125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathy Hochul",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jumaane Williams",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Suozzi",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jeff Jackson",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cheri Beasley",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Erica Smith",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heath Shuler",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8269230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.14423076923076922,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nina Turner",
- "probability": 0.7452830188679245,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shontel Brown",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barnes Jr.",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bryan Flannery",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Johnson",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tariq Shabazz",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shirley Smith",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dennis Kucinich",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Nina Turner, Shontel Brown, John Barnes Jr., Bryan Flannery, Jeff Johnson, Tariq Shabazz, Shirley Smith, Dennis Kucinich"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Kind",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alex Lasry",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Godlewski",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Nelson",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Kind, Alex Lasry, Sarah Godlewski, Tom Nelson"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mo Brooks",
- "probability": 0.6796116504854368,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katie Britt",
- "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.058252427184466014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Merrill",
- "probability": 0.058252427184466014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Sessions",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Shelby",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Moore",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mo Brooks, Katie Britt, Lynda Blanchard, John Merrill, Jeff Sessions, Richard Shelby, Roy Moore"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bill Peduto",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ed Gainey",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bill Peduto, Ed Gainey"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.9166666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract \"Under 2%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 2%, 2% to 4%, 4% to 6%, 6% to 8%, 8% to 10%, 10% to 12%, 12% to 14%, 14% to 16%, 16% to 18%, 18% or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 1.6M",
- "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.6M to 1.625M",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.625M to 1.65M",
- "probability": 0.05555555555555555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.65M to 1.675M",
- "probability": 0.13888888888888887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.675M to 1.7M",
- "probability": 0.2685185185185185,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.7M to 1.725M",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.725M to 1.75M",
- "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.75M to 1.775M",
- "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.775M to 1.8M",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.8M or more",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1.6M, 1.6M to 1.625M, 1.625M to 1.65M, 1.65M to 1.675M, 1.675M to 1.7M, 1.7M to 1.725M, 1.725M to 1.75M, 1.75M to 1.775M, 1.775M to 1.8M, 1.8M or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Chuck Grassley",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat Grassley",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashley Hinson",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Carlin",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew Whitaker",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Ashley Hinson, Jim Carlin, Matthew Whitaker"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or 5",
- "probability": 0.22429906542056072,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or 7",
- "probability": 0.719626168224299,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or 11",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12 or 13",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or more",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources).\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "3 or fewer, 4 or 5, 6 or 7, 8 or 9, 10 or 11, 12 or 13, 14 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gallagher",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Steil",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Walker",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil, Scott Walker"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7195/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Samantha-Power-as-USAID-Administrator-by-4-30",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "59 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.4954954954954955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "60 to 62",
- "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 to 65",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "66 to 68",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "69 to 71",
- "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "72 to 74",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75 to 77",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "78 to 80",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "81 to 83",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "84 or more",
- "probability": 0.08108108108108107,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"59 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"84 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "59 or fewer, 60 to 62, 63 to 65, 66 to 68, 69 to 71, 72 to 74, 75 to 77, 78 to 80, 81 to 83, 84 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marjorie Greene",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Marjorie Greene"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7199/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-LA-02-House-special-election-runoff",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.10476190476190476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.10476190476190476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.09523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.10476190476190476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for both candidates officially reported, in the runoff of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 2%, 2% to 4%, 4% to 6%, 6% to 8%, 8% to 10%, 10% to 12%, 12% to 14%, 14% to 16%, 16% to 18%, 18% or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Canada holds national elections to the federal House of Commons before the End Date listed below. One or more by-elections to individual seats that may fall vacant shall not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes. National elections that may be called in 2021 but that will not take place until after the End Date will likewise not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Wendy Sherman as Deputy Sec. of State by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7201/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wendy-Sherman-as-Deputy-Sec-of-State-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50 to 52",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53 to 55",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56 to 58",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "59 to 61",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 or more",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wendy Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Sherman be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of State in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"74 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50 to 52, 53 to 55, 56 to 58, 59 to 61, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Vanita Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen. by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7202/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vanita-Gupta-as-Assoc-Attorney-Gen-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.3076923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.36538461538461536,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.2019230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.04807692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vanita Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Gupta be confirmed to position of Associate Attorney General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Colin Kahl as UnderSecDef for Policy by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7203/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Colin-Kahl-as-UnderSecDef-for-Policy-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.13861386138613863,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.16831683168316833,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Colin Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Kahl be confirmed to position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jody Hice",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Raffensperger",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Belle Isle",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Quinton Lucas",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Sifton",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Nixon",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Koster",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Quinton Lucas, Scott Sifton, Jay Nixon, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7207/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 5/1/2021 12:00 AM (ET) [beginning of the day]\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ",
- "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c",
- "platform": "Omen",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3032935619590304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6967064380409697,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "",
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
- "platform": "Omen",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5509755750419132,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44902442495808675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "",
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Sajid Javid",
- "probability": 0.03746229444390386,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rory Stewart",
- "probability": 0.0009730466089325679,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
- "probability": 0.025591125814926532,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Penny Mordaunt",
- "probability": 0.027050695728325382,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeremy Hunt",
- "probability": 0.10810547825240828,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Cleverly",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dominic Raab",
- "probability": 0.06490220881580228,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Tugendhat",
- "probability": 0.06276150627615062,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0.05264182154325192,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amber Rudd",
- "probability": 0.00544906101002238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Johnny Mercer",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0.0810547825240829,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew Hancock",
- "probability": 0.05264182154325192,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Truss",
- "probability": 0.07482728422691447,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gavin Williamson",
- "probability": 0.03892186435730271,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrea Leadsom",
- "probability": 0.013914566507735718,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoffrey Cox",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tobias Ellwood",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Baker",
- "probability": 0.030359054198696115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ruth Davidson",
- "probability": 0.023158509292595112,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Esther McVey",
- "probability": 0.009730466089325677,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Philip Hammond",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.2904544127663715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Contracts to be added on request",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Johnny Mercer, Michael Gove, Matthew Hancock, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood, Steve Baker, Ruth Davidson, Esther McVey, Philip Hammond, Rishi Sunak"
- },
- {
- "title": "Gender of next Conservative leader",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Male",
- "probability": 0.7736942156241513,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Female",
- "probability": 0.22630578437584864,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "description": "What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",
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- "title": "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
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- "title": "2021 London mayoral election winner",
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- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "description": "Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
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- "title": "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner",
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- "platform": "Smarkets",
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- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "description": "Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
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- "title": "Irish reunification referendum before 2023",
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- "description": "Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",
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- "title": "French Presidential election to happen before 2022",
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- "description": "Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?",
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- "title": "UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
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- "description": "Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",
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- "title": "Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022",
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- "description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",
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- "title": "Brexit Party to control any council",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council",
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- "description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",
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- "title": "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat",
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- "description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
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- "title": "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats",
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- "description": "How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",
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- "title": "Joe Biden's first international visit",
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- "description": "Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",
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- "title": "Biden approval on day 100",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
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- "name": "45–49.9%",
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- "name": "50–54.9%",
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- "name": "55–59.9%",
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- "name": "60–64.9%",
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- "name": "65% or over",
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- "description": "What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",
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- "title": "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "description": "Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
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- "title": "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
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- "description": "Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
- "stars": 2,
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- "title": "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
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- "name": "Tracy Brabin",
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- "name": "Conservative Party candidate",
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- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Tracy Brabin, Conservative Party candidate"
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- "title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.8055977823482071,
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- "name": "Labour",
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- "description": "Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "title": "Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "name": "GERB",
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- "name": "BSP",
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- "name": "ITN",
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- "description": "",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "GERB, BSP, ITN"
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- "title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Under 45%",
- "probability": 0.32353451266042316,
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- "name": "45.0–49.9%",
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- "name": "50% or over",
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- "description": "What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",
- "stars": 2,
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- {
- "title": "Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.7387346791636626,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2612653208363374,
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- "description": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",
- "stars": 2,
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- "title": "London elections: In-person voting",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "name": "In-person and postal voting",
- "probability": 0.948190001915342,
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- "name": "Postal voting only",
- "probability": 0.05180999808465811,
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- "description": "Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "In-person and postal voting, Postal voting only"
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- "title": "London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.949080348499516,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.05091965150048402,
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- "description": "",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- "title": "$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03920031360250882,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9607996863974911,
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- "description": "Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",
- "stars": 2,
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- "title": "New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5754450978812535,
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- "name": "Eric Adams",
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- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
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- "name": "Maya Wiley",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Dianne Morales",
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- "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "description": "Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia"
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- "title": "Trump to create new political party",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
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- "probability": 0.11602004826434008,
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- "description": "Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",
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- "title": "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "options": [
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- "name": "CDU + CSU",
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- "name": "AfD",
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- "title": "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
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- "title": "2022 House of Representatives control",
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- "description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",
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- "title": "President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment",
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- "title": "2022 Senate control",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control",
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- "description": "Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
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- "title": "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy",
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- "description": "Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
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- "title": "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021",
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- "title": "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)",
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- "title": "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress",
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- "description": "Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",
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- "title": "Next G20 leader to leave",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave",
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- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
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- "title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
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- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
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- {
- "title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Will MacAskill (~2019)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours (~2017)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "John Leslie (~1996)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Martin Rees (~2003)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Metaculus responders (~2021)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.\n\nWhile the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
- "url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Nick Bostrom (~2002)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Gott III (~1993)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Wells (~2009)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0035,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9965,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
- "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Simpson (~2016)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.2%\n\nBeard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Ozzie Gooen (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
- "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Survey of AI experts (~2017)",
- "description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0-10%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Ben Garfinkel (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.1-1%\n\nGarfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "James Fodor (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential risk from AI",
- "url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 5-30%\n\nI put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
- "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2014)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33%\n\nStated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
- "url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Jaan Tallinn (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 33-50%\n\nThis comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.585,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
- "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.00004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
- "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0000019,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999981,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "James Fodor (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0002%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.0100%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)\n\nSee this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~33% (\"about one in three\")\n\nOrd: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\"",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Survey of experts in the AI field (~2016)",
- "description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
- "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~20%\n\nThis may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~2%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
- "url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Luke Oman (~2012)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)\n\nI think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.000055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 30-40%\n\nArden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)",
- "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.1%\n\nReduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
- "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)",
- "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
- "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nSo, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
- "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~20-30%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nThere’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
- "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nI haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~50%\n\nBasically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
- "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Toby Ord (~2020)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 1.10%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.011,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.989,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
- "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)",
- "description": "Actual estimate: 0.38%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0038,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.020000000000000018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
- "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "GCR Conference (~2008)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
- "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
- "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
- "platform": "X-risk estimates",
- "author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/omen-questions.json b/data/old/omen-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index f400d20..0000000
--- a/data/old/omen-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,46 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ",
- "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c",
- "platform": "Omen",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3032935619590304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6967064380409697,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.315Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
- "platform": "Omen",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5509755750419132,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44902442495808675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.316Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 1
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/polymarket-questions.json b/data/old/polymarket-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 3c73b88..0000000
--- a/data/old/polymarket-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,587 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04796853499144450688949206400915807",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9520314650085554931105079359908419",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "137",
- "liquidity": "1585.76",
- "tradevolume": "9977.68",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9007428867327054129165036606952368",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.09925711326729458708349633930476325",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "853",
- "liquidity": "9826.84",
- "tradevolume": "96927.10",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5206285472686400507444749347907407",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4793714527313599492555250652092593",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "590",
- "liquidity": "27288.56",
- "tradevolume": "95335.81",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-14-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 15, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 14, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3535197095680785170642305476130527",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6464802904319214829357694523869473",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "70",
- "liquidity": "6012.10",
- "tradevolume": "9506.53",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9339458073173414421656340245752705",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.06605419268265855783436597542472948",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "74",
- "liquidity": "11563.47",
- "tradevolume": "8977.70",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1665007233546323391526042792748865",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8334992766453676608473957207251135",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "107",
- "liquidity": "2136.64",
- "tradevolume": "8932.72",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9632262890311635630827874617597747",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.03677371096883643691721253824022533",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "528",
- "liquidity": "4057.43",
- "tradevolume": "80146.73",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49,999 or fewer",
- "probability": "0.002230462986002085580952958875012663",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50,000-62,499",
- "probability": "0.01943734896497328170661380961001092",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62,500-74,999",
- "probability": "0.9761999336157880496144669916833917",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75,000 or more",
- "probability": "0.002132254433236583097966239831584897",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "348",
- "liquidity": "2000.00",
- "tradevolume": "7745.24",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9950022276106855881319902372862853",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.004997772389314411868009762713714693",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "44",
- "liquidity": "1184.32",
- "tradevolume": "7441.96",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.732235446884398698530675700296491",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.267764553115601301469324299703509",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "1338",
- "liquidity": "206602.57",
- "tradevolume": "701564.43",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03413667417694183066424578230798366",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9658633258230581693357542176920163",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "133",
- "liquidity": "2628.43",
- "tradevolume": "6625.39",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.06698999379989905965353372642409035",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9330100062001009403464662735759097",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "476",
- "liquidity": "4039.72",
- "tradevolume": "65732.40",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.03921719512341878664778748620392095",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.960782804876581213352212513796079",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "110",
- "liquidity": "1368.68",
- "tradevolume": "6123.61",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01594316631423604659920151808627175",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9840568336857639534007984819137282",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "768",
- "liquidity": "1597.05",
- "tradevolume": "57034.77",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04444621728750495279667043356264725",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9555537827124950472033295664373527",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "750",
- "liquidity": "1831.75",
- "tradevolume": "55256.23",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 170 Gwei on April 19?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-170-gwei-on-april-19",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 170 Gwei on April 19, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the daily average Ethereum gas price is listed as being below 170 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If the daily average Ethereum gas price is 170 Gwei or higher for that date, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 19, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6755572443640393018752364739146016",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3244427556359606981247635260853984",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "14",
- "liquidity": "804.76",
- "tradevolume": "533.17",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.08446095208233418986080353647514015",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9155390479176658101391964635248599",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "516",
- "liquidity": "7988.71",
- "tradevolume": "53145.52",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Ben Askren?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jake-paul-win-his-boxing-match-against-ben-askren",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Ben Askren, set to take place on April 17th, 2021. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Ben Askren is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5050241461157637610495418110858291",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4949758538842362389504581889141709",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "42",
- "liquidity": "54242.49",
- "tradevolume": "4559.50",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on April 14, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elonmusk-account-on-april-14-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @ElonMusk, shall exceed 13,963 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @ElonMusk, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@ElonMusk\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @ElonMusk just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Elon Musk, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @ElonMusk will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 30",
- "probability": "0.02712575215606869253252600966220513",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "30-40",
- "probability": "0.1115263745913060475253404147763908",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "41-50",
- "probability": "0.2219636014313589647902402720571277",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51-60",
- "probability": "0.2547160184188490839953676900262511",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "61-70",
- "probability": "0.1907413972112541594210074122414898",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71-80",
- "probability": "0.1255456580166040091498031486191968",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 80",
- "probability": "0.06838119817455904258571505261733859",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "152",
- "liquidity": "2555.00",
- "tradevolume": "4495.18",
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7373184535851954646769817275173767",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2626815464148045353230182724826233",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "68",
- "liquidity": "1000.00",
- "tradevolume": "4268.68",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1958944749463810152808445623177045",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8041055250536189847191554376822955",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "101",
- "liquidity": "1131.33",
- "tradevolume": "4252.10",
- "stars": 4
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bezos",
- "probability": "0.9524984652600312046436200271105158",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Musk",
- "probability": "0.04750153473996879535637997288948422",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "330",
- "liquidity": "1800.31",
- "tradevolume": "36782.54",
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/predictit-questions.json b/data/old/predictit-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index ca93187..0000000
--- a/data/old/predictit-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,4429 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5188679245283019,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4339622641509434,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:45.198Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.46,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:49.341Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.594059405940594,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.4059405940594059,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:55.362Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:59.578Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:03.041Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:06.637Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:11.426Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:16.136Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:20.011Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:24.200Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5169491525423728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.20338983050847453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.06779661016949151,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.050847457627118633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.050847457627118633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.016949152542372878,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.016949152542372878,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paperboy Prince",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Fernando Mateo",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:29.576Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:34.152Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:39.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:44.853Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:50.102Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6237623762376238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.37623762376237624,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:56.100Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.39603960396039606,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:02.248Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:08.196Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:12.819Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:18.748Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.7920792079207921,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.2079207920792079,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:23.626Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nShould no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.8737864077669902,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
- "probability": 0.07766990291262135,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jennifer McClellan",
- "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Fairfax",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lee Carter",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:28.626Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:32.549Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.010000000000000009,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:38.860Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.3813559322033898,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.288135593220339,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.13559322033898302,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.050847457627118633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.0423728813559322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.016949152542372878,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:43.503Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kirk Cox",
- "probability": 0.4727272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Snyder",
- "probability": 0.21818181818181814,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.1909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amanda Chase",
- "probability": 0.09090909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neil Chatterjee",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmett Hanger",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Stanley",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:48.038Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.20720720720720714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.20720720720720714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.09009009009009007,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.08108108108108106,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.06306306306306306,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.054054054054054036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.045045045045045036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.045045045045045036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.03603603603603603,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.03603603603603603,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.027027027027027018,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.018018018018018014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.018018018018018014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.018018018018018014,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:52.663Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:57.459Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.4444444444444445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.38888888888888895,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07407407407407408,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.03703703703703704,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.01851851851851852,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.00925925925925926,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:02.456Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:07.684Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:13.640Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:18.254Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:23.024Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:26.573Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:32.834Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8118811881188118,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.18811881188118812,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:37.160Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.32075471698113206,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.2830188679245283,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gibbons",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill Johnson",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:43.438Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:46.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:52.683Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:56.181Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.584070796460177,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.30088495575221236,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:00.918Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.9056603773584905,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Francisco Sagasti",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:05.527Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4653465346534653,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:11.565Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Hassan Rouhani",
- "probability": 0.5267857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.09821428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.05357142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Jong-un",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:16.922Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:21.512Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6237623762376238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.37623762376237624,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:24.939Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Alvin Bragg",
- "probability": 0.4077669902912621,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tali Weinstein",
- "probability": 0.3398058252427184,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
- "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eliza Orlins",
- "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Quart",
- "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lucy Lang",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyrus Vance",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Diana Florence",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Crotty",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:30.496Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
- "probability": 0.32380952380952377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
- "probability": 0.23809523809523803,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.14285714285714282,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.10476190476190474,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Paul Kagame",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:36.661Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:40.355Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "13",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "17",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "19",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20",
- "probability": 0.5769230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "21",
- "probability": 0.2788461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "22",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:44.554Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jon Sallet",
- "probability": 0.6371681415929202,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jonathan Kanter",
- "probability": 0.23893805309734512,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Renata Hesse",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deborah Feinstein",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Davies",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave Gelfand",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steven Sunshine",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Terrell McSweeny",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Leibowitz",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Juan Arteaga",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gigi Sohn",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Edward Smith",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Einer Elhauge",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Douglas Melamed",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:50.565Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrés Arauz",
- "probability": 0.7378640776699029,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.2524271844660194,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Yaku Pérez",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:54.927Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:59.257Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:04.712Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.6796116504854368,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.1359223300970874,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:08.249Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "62 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490198,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 or 64",
- "probability": 0.12745098039215688,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 or 66",
- "probability": 0.19607843137254907,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "67 or 68",
- "probability": 0.24509803921568632,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "69 or 70",
- "probability": 0.19607843137254907,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 or 72",
- "probability": 0.08823529411764708,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "73 or 74",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75 or 76",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 or 78",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "79 or more",
- "probability": 0.009803921568627453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:13.387Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ryan Costello",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Everett Stern",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Dent",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:17.529Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:23.610Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6633663366336634,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.33663366336633666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:27.929Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5294117647058824,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.47058823529411764,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:32.575Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Shalanda Young",
- "probability": 0.4299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nani Coloretti",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Martha Coven",
- "probability": 0.08999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gene Sperling",
- "probability": 0.059999999999999984,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Bernstein",
- "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Lu",
- "probability": 0.039999999999999994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heather Boushey",
- "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thea Lee",
- "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonal Shah",
- "probability": 0.019999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann O'Leary",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neera Tanden",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Bianchi",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Jones",
- "probability": 0.009999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:36.057Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:40.437Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rob Bonta",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Xavier Becerra",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rick Chavez Zbur",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Rosen",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Diana Becton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Darrell Steinberg",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Goodwin Liu",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Anna Caballero",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:46.472Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:49.936Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:56.133Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.5267857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.1607142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.15178571428571427,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.0625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.044642857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.017857142857142856,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:00.095Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yonhy Lescano",
- "probability": 0.38260869565217387,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hernando de Soto",
- "probability": 0.27826086956521734,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.1043478260869565,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "George Forsyth",
- "probability": 0.043478260869565216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pedro Castillo",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Urresti",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "César Acuña",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Beingolea",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Julio Guzmán",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ollanta Humala",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Daniel Salaverry",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:04.989Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Susan Wright",
- "probability": 0.7941176470588236,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jana Sanchez",
- "probability": 0.12745098039215685,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Rodimer",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katrina Pierson",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sery Kim",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jake Ellzey",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Harrison",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lydia Bean",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shawn Lassiter",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:11.204Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lorena González",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jessyn Farrell",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Colleen Echohawk",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lance Randall",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jenny Durkan",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "James Donaldson",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:17.248Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nicholas Burns",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rahm Emanuel",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Shambaugh",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Kritenbrink",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:22.064Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Carr",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Perdue",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Geoff Duncan",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:26.229Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.6237623762376238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.16831683168316833,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:30.463Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:36.161Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:40.755Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.39999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.37142857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.10476190476190476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vicky Hartzler",
- "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Brunner",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:44.631Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.32,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Burr",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dan Forest",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Meadows",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:50.598Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:54.986Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:59.799Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the \"Tie Votes\" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).\nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9 votes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or 11 votes",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12 or 13 votes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or 15 votes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16 or 17 votes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18 or 19 votes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20 or more",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:03.764Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:07.296Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:13.018Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:17.946Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.3113207547169811,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.2830188679245283,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "R House, D Senate",
- "probability": 0.2830188679245283,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "D House, R Senate",
- "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:23.407Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathy Hochul",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jumaane Williams",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Suozzi",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:27.721Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:31.991Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jeff Jackson",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Cheri Beasley",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Erica Smith",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heath Shuler",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:37.408Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.8269230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Independent",
- "probability": 0.13461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:43.500Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Nina Turner",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shontel Brown",
- "probability": 0.24545454545454545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barnes Jr.",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bryan Flannery",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Johnson",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tariq Shabazz",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shirley Smith",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dennis Kucinich",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:47.406Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Kind",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alex Lasry",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Godlewski",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Nelson",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:53.645Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:58.577Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Mo Brooks",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Katie Britt",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Richard Shelby",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Merrill",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Moore",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeff Sessions",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:02.024Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bill Peduto",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ed Gainey",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:05.544Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract \"Under 2%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.9166666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:10.311Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Fewer than 1.6M",
- "probability": 0.06896551724137932,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.6M to 1.625M",
- "probability": 0.03448275862068966,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.625M to 1.65M",
- "probability": 0.07758620689655173,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.65M to 1.675M",
- "probability": 0.13793103448275865,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.675M to 1.7M",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.7M to 1.725M",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.725M to 1.75M",
- "probability": 0.12068965517241381,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.75M to 1.775M",
- "probability": 0.02586206896551724,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.775M to 1.8M",
- "probability": 0.01724137931034483,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1.8M or more",
- "probability": 0.01724137931034483,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:15.533Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:21.565Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Chuck Grassley",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Pat Grassley",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashley Hinson",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Carlin",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Matthew Whitaker",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:26.440Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources).\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "3 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4 or 5",
- "probability": 0.27777777777777773,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6 or 7",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10 or 11",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12 or 13",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or more",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:32.157Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Gallagher",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Steil",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Walker",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:35.678Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7195/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Samantha-Power-as-USAID-Administrator-by-4-30",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"59 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"84 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "59 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.5999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "60 to 62",
- "probability": 0.026086956521739122,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "63 to 65",
- "probability": 0.026086956521739122,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "66 to 68",
- "probability": 0.03478260869565216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "69 to 71",
- "probability": 0.03478260869565216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "72 to 74",
- "probability": 0.052173913043478244,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "75 to 77",
- "probability": 0.052173913043478244,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "78 to 80",
- "probability": 0.06086956521739129,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "81 to 83",
- "probability": 0.052173913043478244,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "84 or more",
- "probability": 0.06086956521739129,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:39.582Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:45.849Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marjorie Greene",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:51.448Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7199/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-LA-02-House-special-election-runoff",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for both candidates officially reported, in the runoff of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.11320754716981131,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.11320754716981131,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.10377358490566037,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.10377358490566037,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:57.798Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Canada holds national elections to the federal House of Commons before the End Date listed below. One or more by-elections to individual seats that may fall vacant shall not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes. National elections that may be called in 2021 but that will not take place until after the End Date will likewise not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:03.868Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Wendy Sherman as Deputy Sec. of State by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7201/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wendy-Sherman-as-Deputy-Sec-of-State-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wendy Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Sherman be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of State in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"74 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50 to 52",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53 to 55",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56 to 58",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "59 to 61",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 or more",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:09.943Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Vanita Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen. by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7202/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vanita-Gupta-as-Assoc-Attorney-Gen-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vanita Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Gupta be confirmed to position of Associate Attorney General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.36792452830188677,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.3113207547169811,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:16.255Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Colin Kahl as UnderSecDef for Policy by 5/15?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7203/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Colin-Kahl-as-UnderSecDef-for-Policy-by-5-15",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Colin Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Kahl be confirmed to position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "51",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "53",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "55",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "57",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:20.671Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:25.180Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Jody Hice",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brad Raffensperger",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Belle Isle",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:29.043Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Quinton Lucas",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Sifton",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Nixon",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Koster",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:34.961Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7207/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-before-May-1",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 5/1/2021 12:00 AM (ET) [beginning of the day]\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:39.458Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.11,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:43.155Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:48.937Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:53.435Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nikki Fried",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Val Demings",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlie Crist",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:59.135Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the presidential election in Peru?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7212/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-presidential-election-in-Peru",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported (Votos Validos, excluding blank and spoiled ballots), in the first round of the 2021 Peruvian Presidential election. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract \"Under 1%\" shall resolve to Yes.\nPercentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 1%",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "1% to 2%",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2% to 3%",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "3% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "4% to 5%",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "6% to 7%",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "7% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8% to 9%",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "9% or more",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:02.967Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the margin in the Ecuadorian presidential runoff election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7213/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Ecuadorian-presidential-runoff-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the candidate, between Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso, who wins a larger percentage of the popular vote in the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential runoff election, and the difference in the percentages of the popular vote won by these two candidates. Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total number of votes for the two candidates officially reported. Blank (blancos) or spoiled (nulos) ballots are excluded from these calculations.\nIn the event of a tie in the percentage of the popular vote won by the two party candidates, the contract \"Arauz, less than 1%\" shall resolve to Yes. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 5% or more",
- "probability": 0.16814159292035397,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 4% - 5%",
- "probability": 0.10619469026548671,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 3% - 4%",
- "probability": 0.07964601769911503,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 2% - 3%",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz by 1% - 2%",
- "probability": 0.16814159292035397,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Arauz, less than 1%",
- "probability": 0.15044247787610618,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso, less than 1%",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso by 1% - 2%",
- "probability": 0.035398230088495575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso by 2% - 3%",
- "probability": 0.053097345132743355,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lasso by 3% or more",
- "probability": 0.04424778761061947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:06.594Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 3
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/smarkets-questions.json b/data/old/smarkets-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index eb84fda..0000000
--- a/data/old/smarkets-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,5373 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
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- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
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- "options": [
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- },
- {
- "name": "James Cleverly",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dominic Raab",
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- "name": "Geoffrey Cox",
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- "name": "Tobias Ellwood",
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- "name": "Steve Baker",
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- "name": "Ruth Davidson",
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- "name": "Esther McVey",
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- "name": "Philip Hammond",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:11.915Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Gender of next Conservative leader",
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- "description": "What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.285Z",
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- {
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- {
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- {
- "name": "Stewart Hosie",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
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- {
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- {
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- {
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Angus Robertson",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Alex Salmond",
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- {
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Tommy Sheppard",
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- {
- "name": "Roseanna Cunningham",
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.995Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
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- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
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- "description": "",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.244Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
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- {
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- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",
- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.580Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Contracts to be added on request",
- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.957Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:14.674Z",
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- {
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- "title": "Year of next General Election in Hungary",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election",
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- "description": "The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.032Z",
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- "title": "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/welsh-assembly-elections-2021",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.387Z",
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- "title": "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election",
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- "description": "Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",
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- "name": "Xavier Bertrand",
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- "name": "Yannick Jadot",
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- "name": "Olivier Faure",
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- "name": "Jean-Marie Bigard",
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- "name": "Jean Lassalle",
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- "name": "Joachim Son-Forget",
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- "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
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- "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve",
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- "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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- "name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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- "name": "Ségolène Royal",
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- "name": "Florian Philippot",
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- "name": "Edouard Philippe",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.737Z",
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- "title": "Macron first round vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",
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- "probability": 0,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:17.115Z",
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- {
- "title": "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.",
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- "name": "Lisa Nandy",
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- "name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
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- "name": "Anneliese Dodds",
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- "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan",
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- "name": "Andy Burnham",
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- "name": "Yvette Cooper",
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- "name": "Ian Lavery",
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- "name": "Dan Jarvis",
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- "name": "Emily Thornberry",
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- "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds",
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- "name": "Sam Tarry",
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- "name": "Louise Haigh",
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- "name": "Richard Burgon",
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- "name": "Dawn Butler",
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- "name": "Dan Carden",
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- "name": "Jess Phillips",
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- "name": "David Lammy",
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- "name": "Jon Trickett",
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- "name": "Barry Gardiner",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Seema Malhotra",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Jonathan Ashworth",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Ed Miliband",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Hilary Benn",
- "probability": null,
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- {
- "name": "Stella Creasy",
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- {
- "name": "Rachel Reeves",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Laura Pidcock",
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- {
- "name": "Charlotte Nichols",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Kate Osborne",
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- "name": "Margaret Greenwood",
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- "name": "Zarah Sultana",
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- {
- "name": "Wes Streeting",
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- {
- "name": "Jim McMahon",
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- {
- "name": "Alison McGovern",
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- {
- "name": "Bridget Phillipson",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:17.503Z",
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- "title": "Gender of the next Labour leader",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:17.656Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "First Minister to leave the Cabinet?",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Matt Hancock",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:18.026Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Keir Starmer exit date",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.4925623091321052,
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- "name": "2025 or later",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:18.394Z",
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- {
- "title": "2021 London mayoral election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
- "options": [
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- {
- "name": "Shaun Bailey",
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- "name": "Siân Berry",
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- "name": "Brian Rose",
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- "name": "Mandu Reid",
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- "name": "Luisa Porritt",
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- "name": "Laurence Fox",
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- "name": "David Kurten",
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- "name": "Piers Corbyn",
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- "name": "Farah London",
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- "name": "Peter Gammons",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:18.746Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.591002044989775,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:19.168Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Liam Byrne",
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- "name": "Beverley Nielsen",
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- "name": "Kathryn Downs",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:19.530Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:19.876Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
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- "probability": 0.9222242921013412,
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- {
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:20.294Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.5149700598802395,
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- {
- "name": "Labour",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:20.657Z",
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- {
- "title": "Local elections highest vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:21.064Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Richard Bruton",
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- "name": "Paul Kehoe",
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- "name": "Martin Heydon",
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- "name": "Joe McHugh",
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- {
- "name": "Michael Ring",
- "probability": 0,
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- {
- "name": "Michael Creed",
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- {
- "name": "Colm Brophy",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:21.223Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Irish reunification referendum before 2023",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?",
- "options": [
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:21.473Z",
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- {
- "title": "Next Scottish First Minister",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.826449149600833,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:27.771Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Contracts available on request.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Democrat",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:28.138Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "London Assembly: Labour majority",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.41771041084962107,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:28.481Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Fewer than 3",
- "probability": 0.1297062881923911,
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- "name": "Exactly 3",
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- "name": "Exactly 4",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:28.829Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "2021 Norwegian election: Most votes",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Conservative (Høyre)",
- "probability": 0.482994803967879,
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- {
- "name": "Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)",
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- {
- "name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)",
- "probability": 0.1312391749330814,
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- {
- "name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)",
- "probability": 0.043772634230829784,
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- {
- "name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)",
- "probability": 0.043772634230829784,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:29.191Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)",
- "probability": 0.7432820245238717,
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- {
- "name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)",
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- {
- "name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)",
- "probability": 0.08278980780937473,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:29.549Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Brexit Party to control any council",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.050332192470304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:29.882Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12727939155136078,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:30.139Z",
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- {
- "title": "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "0–2",
- "probability": 0.8716389548693586,
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- },
- {
- "name": "3 or more",
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:30.486Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "Joe Biden's first international visit",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.6515410958904109,
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- "name": "Republic of Ireland",
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- "name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.11605783866057838,
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- {
- "name": "China",
- "probability": 0.0019025875190258753,
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- {
- "name": "Ukraine",
- "probability": 0.009512937595129375,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:30.855Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- "title": "Biden approval on day 100",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Under 45%",
- "probability": 0.029573118463912224,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "45–49.9%",
- "probability": 0.09523401337219269,
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- "name": "50–54.9%",
- "probability": 0.6749528544488256,
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- "name": "55–59.9%",
- "probability": 0.12986456368935367,
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- "name": "60–64.9%",
- "probability": 0.05717469569689696,
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- "name": "65% or over",
- "probability": 0.013200754328818788,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:31.218Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.763369616658779,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.236630383341221,
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:31.577Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45030684625806966,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5496931537419303,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:31.957Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
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- {
- "title": "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Tracy Brabin",
- "probability": 0.8051441932969603,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conservative Party candidate",
- "probability": 0.19485580670303976,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:32.300Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.8070128717265868,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.19298712827341322,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:32.659Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Under 45%",
- "probability": 0.32353451266042316,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "45.0–49.9%",
- "probability": 0.4250780437044745,
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- {
- "name": "50% or over",
- "probability": 0.2513874436351023,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:33.015Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
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- {
- "title": "Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7403027859894294,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2596972140105706,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:33.372Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "London elections: In-person voting",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "In-person and postal voting",
- "probability": 0.948190001915342,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Postal voting only",
- "probability": 0.05180999808465811,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:33.669Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.949080348499516,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.05091965150048402,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:34.159Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.03920031360250882,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9607996863974911,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:34.401Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5771822849807445,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.17073170731707318,
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- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.07293003851091143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.03650513478818999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.09547496790757382,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.047175866495507056,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:34.652Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Trump to create new political party",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.11602004826434008,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8839799517356599,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.008Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "CDU + CSU",
- "probability": 0.8558522783679142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "SPD",
- "probability": 0.055197061451404746,
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- {
- "name": "Greens",
- "probability": 0.0708825573314802,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "AfD",
- "probability": 0.018068102849200837,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.384Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
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- {
- "title": "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.639Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
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- {
- "title": "2022 House of Representatives control",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.3759190298863745,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6240809701136256,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.990Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
- {
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- "probability": 0.4636832704901766,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5363167295098233,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:36.335Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "2022 Senate control",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.44550898203592815,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5544910179640719,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:36.725Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6005369127516779,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39946308724832214,
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- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:37.082Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "2022 House and Senate control",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "D House / D Senate",
- "probability": 0.2841289413422582,
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- {
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- "probability": 0.35630613041780557,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.017766497461928935,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Peter Gammons",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.044416243654822336,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.013959390862944163,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:57.313Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Year of next Israeli legislative election",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.4505287744112113,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.2333744241873743,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2023",
- "probability": 0.12242911827677935,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "2024 or later",
- "probability": 0.19366768312463506,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:57.685Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Liverpool City Council control",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-control",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "No overall control",
- "probability": 0.16450390908358184,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.7261223502861288,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.05561376642218103,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Northern Independence Party",
- "probability": 0.053759974208108324,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:58.113Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Airdrie and Shotts by-election",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-election",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.8322297955209348,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.139143135345667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.02862706913339825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:58.488Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Conservative national equivalent vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-share",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "34% or under",
- "probability": 0.18649083306529432,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "35%",
- "probability": 0.1398520424573818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "36%",
- "probability": 0.15316822129302027,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "37%",
- "probability": 0.1398520424573818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "38% or over",
- "probability": 0.3806368607269219,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:58.837Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Labour national equivalent vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-share",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "30% or under",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "31%",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "32%",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "33%",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "34% or over",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:59.207Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Alba Party to win a Scottish Parliament seat",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42133028/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/alba-party-to-win-a-scottish-parliament-seat",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Will the Alba Party win any seats in the Scottish Parliament in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5263105540634636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47368944593653634,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:59.536Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Rhondda",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140941/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/rhondda",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win Rhondda at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.7235343150875244,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.2764656849124757,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:59.891Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Monmouth",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140942/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/monmouth",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win Monmouth at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Conservative",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nick Ramsay (Independent)",
- "probability": null
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:00.245Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Bridgend",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140946/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/bridgend",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win Bridgend at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:00.609Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Hartlepool by-election: Thelma Walker vote share",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140991/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election-thelma-walker-vote-share",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "What share of the vote will Thelma Walker receive in the Hartlepool by-election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Under 5.0%",
- "probability": 0.6766759776536313,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "5.0–9.9%",
- "probability": 0.1745810055865922,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "10.0–19.9%",
- "probability": 0.10151885474860337,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "20.0% or over",
- "probability": 0.04722416201117319,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:00.959Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Head-to-head: Berry vs Porritt",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Siân Berry or Luisa Porritt?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.689492119089317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.31050788091068304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:01.144Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Head-to-head: Fox vs Fosh",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Laurence Fox or Max Fosh?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.9265658747300216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Max Fosh",
- "probability": 0.07343412526997839,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:01.519Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Head-to-head: Gammons vs Kurten",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Peter Gammons or David Kurten?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Peter Gammons",
- "probability": 0.8196736092327112,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Kurten",
- "probability": 0.1803263907672888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:01.876Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Head-to-head: Binface vs P. Corbyn",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Count Binface or Piers Corbyn?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Count Binface",
- "probability": 0.2570613409415121,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Piers Corbyn",
- "probability": 0.7429386590584879,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:02.232Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Dunfermline",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142033/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dunfermline",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dunfermline at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:02.584Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Aberdeen Central",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-central",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Aberdeen Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.760963026655202,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.11616509028374891,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.12287188306104899,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:02.969Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Cowdenbeath",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142080/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/cowdenbeath",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win Cowdenbeath at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:03.315Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Rutherglen",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142100/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/rutherglen",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Rutherglen at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.7266984068851859,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.27330159311481417,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:03.685Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Coatbridge and Chryston",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142104/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/coatbridge-and-chryston",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Coatbridge and Chryston at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.058Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Edinburgh Eastern",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142127/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-eastern",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Eastern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.416Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Edinburgh Northern and Leith",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142137/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-northern",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Northern and Leith at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scottish Green",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.649Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Glasgow Southside",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142148/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-southside",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Southside at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Labour",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.004Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Caithness, Sutherland and Ross",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142152/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/caithness-sutherland-and-ross",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.381Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Argyll and Bute",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142156/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/argyll-and-bute",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Argyll and Bute at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conservative",
- "probability": null
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.628Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch",
- "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142158/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/skye-lochaber-and-badenoch",
- "platform": "Smarkets",
- "description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "SNP",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": null,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.990Z",
- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/old/stars.csv b/data/old/stars.csv
deleted file mode 100644
index b2ff67e..0000000
--- a/data/old/stars.csv
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,13 +0,0 @@
-Platform,Stars Nuño,Stars Misha,Stars Eli
-CSET-foretell,"2, 1 if less than 100 forecasts",2,3
-Good Judgment,4,3.5,4
-Good Judgment Open,"3, 2 if less than 100 forecasts",3.1 if > 10%,3
-Guesstimate,1,,
-Hypermind,3,,
-Metaculus,"4, 3 if less than 300, 2 if less than 100","3.3 on pandemic, 2.9 otherwise",3
-PolyMarket,"3 with more than $10k liquidity, 2 otherwise",4,"5 stars if more than 10k liquidity, 4 otherwise"
-PredictIt,2,2.5,3.5
-Smarkets,2,,
-Elicit,1,,
-GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy,2,,
-Omen,2,,
diff --git a/data/old/template-questions.json b/data/old/template-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 92b2adb..0000000
--- a/data/old/template-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,34 +0,0 @@
-[ {
- "title": "Some title",
- "url": "someurl.com",
- "platform": "some platform",
- "description": "Some long description which may contain html",
- "moreoriginsdata": {
- "author": "Field may not exist",
- "contractAddress": "Field may not exist"
- },
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Option 1",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Option 2",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Option 3",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
- "numforecasts": "137",
- "liquidity": "1585.76",
- "tradevolume": "9977.68",
- "stars": 3
- }
-}
-]
diff --git a/data/old/williamhill-questions.json b/data/old/williamhill-questions.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 6ed37ce..0000000
--- a/data/old/williamhill-questions.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,2219 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "Sadiq Khan",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "description": "",
- "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.600Z",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9705882352941176,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)",
- "probability": 0.00910492219575592,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Stewart Golton (Lib Dem)",
- "probability": 0.006090047296498993,
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- {
- "name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)",
- "probability": 0.0045751101580664075,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "2021 New York City Mayoral Election",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5392435227058505,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.1258234886313651,
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- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.06863099379892643,
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- "name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.06863099379892643,
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- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.02903618968416118,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.02220414505259384,
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- "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
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- "name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.014802763368395895,
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- "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
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- "name": "Cleopatra Fitzgerald",
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Welsh Assembly Election 2021 - Most Seats",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Labour",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "probability": 0.13915895131629014,
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- "name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.05320783432681681,
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- "name": "Liberal Democrat",
- "probability": 0.0036037178627724535,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
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- {
- "title": "Next German Federal Election",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.35288419571610885,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "Markus Soder",
- "probability": 0.35288419571610885,
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- {
- "name": "Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.1235094685006381,
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- {
- "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.06736880100034806,
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- {
- "title": "Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Conservatives (H)",
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- "name": "Progress Party (FRP)",
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- "name": "Liberal Party (V)",
- "probability": 0.003266791090575784,
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- "name": "Socialist Left Party (SV)",
- "probability": 0.003266791090575784,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Christian Democratic Party (KRF)",
- "probability": 0.003266791090575784,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Green Party (MDG)",
- "probability": 0.003266791090575784,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Red Party (R)",
- "probability": 0.003266791090575784,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Year of Next Australian Federal Election",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.2765957446808511,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.723404255319149,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "qualityindicators": {
- "stars": 2
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Australian Federal Election - Winning Party",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Coalition",
- "probability": 0.6556291390728477,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Labor Party",
- "probability": 0.34437086092715236,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "qualityindicators": {
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- }
- },
- {
- "title": "US Presidential Election 2024 - Winner",
- "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
- "platform": "WilliamHill",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.15168578888137507,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.13651720999323758,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.08532325624577348,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.06205327726965345,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.0525066192281683,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.04550573666441252,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.02625330961408415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.02625330961408415,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Michelle Obama",
- "probability": 0.02007606029312317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.02007606029312317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.02007606029312317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Donald Trump Jnr",
- "probability": 0.02007606029312317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Dwayne Johnson",
- "probability": 0.02007606029312317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Beto O'Rourke",
- "probability": 0.02007606029312317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.02007606029312317,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.01338404019541545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.01338404019541545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.01338404019541545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.01338404019541545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Candace Owens",
- "probability": 0.01338404019541545,
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- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.01338404019541545,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Amy Klobuchar",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Gavin Newsom",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Dan Crenshaw",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
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- {
- "name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
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- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
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- {
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Paul Ryan",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
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- {
- "name": "Kanye West",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.010187851492032655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
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- {
- "name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Jared Kushner",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike DeWine",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "John Hickenlooper",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
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- {
- "name": "Tim Kaine",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Megan Rapinoe",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Mark Zuckerberg",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Michael Bloomberg",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Hillary Clinton",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
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- {
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- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
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- {
- "name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
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- {
- "name": "Matt Gaetz",
- "probability": 0.006758277722437504,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "Kimberly Guilfoyle",
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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/older/MichaelADatabaseOfXRiskEstimates.csv b/data/older/MichaelADatabaseOfXRiskEstimates.csv
deleted file mode 100644
index 891f0fc..0000000
--- a/data/older/MichaelADatabaseOfXRiskEstimates.csv
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,110 +0,0 @@
-title,url,probability,actualEstimate,platform,date_approx,category,description
-Total existential risk by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.17,~17% (~1 in 6),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,"Ord writes: ""Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.""
-
-This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his ""business as usual"" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
-Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.19,19%,GCR Conference,2008,Total risk,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-Existential risk in the 21st century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript,0.01,1%,Will MacAskill,2019,Total risk,
-Extinction risk in the next century,https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/,0.03,Probably at or above 3%,"Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",2017,Total risk,
-Risk of extinction over the next five centuries,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.3,At or above 30%,John Leslie,1996,Total risk,"""The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”"
-Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,"≤50% (""no better than fifty-fifty"")",Martin Rees,2003,Total risk,
-"There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/,0.08,Median: 1%. Mean: 8%.,Metaculus responders,,Total risk,That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019.
-Existential disaster will do us in,https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html,0.25,Probably at or above 25%,Nick Bostrom,2002,Total risk,
-"Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,5%.,Gott III,1993,Total risk,
-Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0035,0.3-0.4%,Wells,2009,Total risk,
-Global catastrophic risk per year.,https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072,0.002,0.2%,Simpson,2016,Total risk,"Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about ""global catastrophic risk""."
-Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,50% (~1 in 2),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,
-Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg,0.2,>20%,Ozzie Gooen,2020,Total risk,"""I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."""
-Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.1,~10%,Toby Ord,2020,AI,
-Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,Global Catastrophic Risk Conference,2008,AI,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
-Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence,https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807,0.05,5%,Survey of AI experts,2017,AI,"The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
-"A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,0-10%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,AI,
-AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg,0.055,~0.1-1%,Ben Garfinkel,2020,AI,"Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied ""I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."""
-"Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.05,~5%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views"": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
-AI-induced existential catastrophe,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.5,50%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI,
-Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.0005,0.05%,James Fodor,2020,AI,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
-Existential risk from AI,https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229,0.175,5-30%,Stuart Armstrong,2020,AI,"""I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased."" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk. "
-Chance of humanity not surviving AI,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40),0.4,"50, 40, or 33%",Stuart Armstrong,2014,AI,"Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted ""This number fluctuates a lot"". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an ""actually superintelligent"" AI, whereas for ""AI in general"" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more ""optimism"" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
-Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/,0.01,~10%,Paul Christiano,2019,AI,"He also says ""I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number."" And ""All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers."""
-Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?),https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854,41.5,33-50%,Jaan Tallinn,2020,AI,"This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said ""two obvious Schelling points"" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
-Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.03,~3% (~1 in 30),Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
-Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.0005,0.05%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
-Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,"~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
-Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.02,2%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
-Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.00004,0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include ""accidental"" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
-Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.0000019,0.00019% (0.0000019),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,
-"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for ""synthetic biology"" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
-"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,
-Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.000002,0.0002%,James Fodor,2020,Biorisk,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
-Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
-Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.005,0.5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
-"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,0.0100%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Nanotechnology,
-Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.02,~2% (~1 in 50),Toby Ord,2020,Nanotechnology,See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)
-"Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810,0.33,"~33% (""about one in three"")",Toby Ord,2020,Total risk/conditional,"""Ord: """"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?
-
-My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.""""
-
-Arden Koehler replies """"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?""""
-
-Ord replies: """"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."""""""
-"The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.18,18%,Survey of experts in the AI field,2016,AI/conditional,"This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was ""4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"" "
-"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.1,~10%,Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
-"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.7,~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates),Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,
-"Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.2,~20%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/conditional,"This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.
-""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
-
-[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."""
-Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.02,~2%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/Conditional,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
-Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper,http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html,0.000055,"0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",Luke Oman,2012,Nuclear/Conditional,"I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
-"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming ",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.1,10%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
-Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
-"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.35,30-40%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
-Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
-"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.6,60%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
-Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
-"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.9,90%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
-Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
-"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.97,97%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
-Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
-"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.03,3%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
-"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905,0.1,10%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
-"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906,0.001,0.1%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
-"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907,0.25,25%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
-At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,"This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
-AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.1,~10%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,"""So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."""
-"AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.25,~20-30%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,
-The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI/non-existential,"""There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."""
-We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI/non-existential,"""I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."""
-We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.5,~50%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/non-existential,"""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
-
-Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."""
-Soft AGI takeoff,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.7,70%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
-"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.67,67%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
-"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.62,62%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
-"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.6,60%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
-Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.52,52%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
-"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.005,0.5%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
-"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
-At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.6,60%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.25,25%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.01,1%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
-chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.05,~5%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/non-existential,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
-Per year chance of nuclear war,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.011,1.10%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
-Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.0038,0.38%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
-Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Climate change/non-existential,
-At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.98,98%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
-At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
-Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
-Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
-Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.7,70%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
-Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
-Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-old-withouttimestampandqualityindicators.json b/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-old-withouttimestampandqualityindicators.json
deleted file mode 100644
index c484a0e..0000000
--- a/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-old-withouttimestampandqualityindicators.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,3099 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "title": "OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Actual estimate was \"small probability, close to 0%\". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Actual estimate was \"<10%\". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2016",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives still operates in 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "This grant does not lead to any new top charities.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this project",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We recommend a second grant to CPSP",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell makes another grant to IGI",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health becomes a top charity.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives",
- "url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. ",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- },
- {
- "title": "The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%",
- "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts",
- "platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "description": "Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "stars": 2
- }
-]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-processed-old-format.json b/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-processed-old-format.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 3f507a8..0000000
--- a/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-processed-old-format.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,1469 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "Title": "OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "80%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "80%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "70%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "0.1%",
- "Description": "Actual estimate was \"small probability, close to 0%\". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "55%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "7%",
- "Description": "Actual estimate was \"<10%\". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2016",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2017",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "12.5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "67%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives still operates in 2019",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "70%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "65%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "7.5%",
- "Description": "(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "7.5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "80%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "This grant does not lead to any new top charities.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "30%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "55%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "65%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "30%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "70%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "65%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "22.5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "90%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "65%",
- "Description": "(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "65%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "15%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "13%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "30%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "22%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "14%",
- "Description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "28%",
- "Description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "8%",
- "Description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "85%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "80%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "1%",
- "Description": "Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "65%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "55%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "65%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this project",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "5%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We recommend a second grant to CPSP",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "66%",
- "Description": "Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "44%",
- "Description": "Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "7.5%",
- "Description": "Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "85%",
- "Description": "(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "85%",
- "Description": "(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "40%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell makes another grant to IGI",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health becomes a top charity.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "25%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "33%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "90%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "20%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. ",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "80%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "75%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "10%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "70%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "66 %",
- "Description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "33%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "60%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "70%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "35%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
- "Stars": 2
- },
- {
- "Title": "The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%",
- "URL": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
- "Binary question?": true,
- "Percentage": "50%",
- "Description": "Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ",
- "Stars": 2
- }
-]
diff --git a/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json b/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json
deleted file mode 100644
index ce95acc..0000000
--- a/data/older/givewellopenphil-questions-raw.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,344 +0,0 @@
-[
- {
- "Title": "One for the World — General Support",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
| Confidence | Prediction | By Time |
|---|
| 25% | OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020. | End of 2020 |
| 15% | Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023. | End of 2023 |
| 75% | We renew our support to OFTW after one year. | September 2019 |
| 50% | We renew our support to OFTW after two years. | September 2020 |
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, Josh Rosenberg, our senior research analyst who led GiveWell's investigation of Zusha!, records the following forecasts:
- Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017: 35%, broken down into:
- Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF: 10%
- Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF: 15%
- Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation): 10%
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Charity Science: Health — General Support",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
- Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year: 80%
- Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019: 15%
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Charity Science Health — SMS Reminders for Immunization",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
- 80% chance that we will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018.
- 15% chance that Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019.
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
- Good Ventures gives R4D a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months: 70%
- R4D is a top charity by the end of 2019: 25%
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The purpose of this exercise is to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the forecasts below, all of which we consider to be fairly rough. Except where otherwise noted, the end date for all predictions is the end of 2020.
- New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT: 15%
- New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT: small probability, close to 0%
- New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT: 55%
- New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear: 15%
- New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further: 15%
- New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further: 5%
- After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity: 20%
- GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly: 50%
- GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF: <10%
- New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020: 50%
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate our past predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts (made during our decision process):
Top charity predictions
- New Incentives is a top charity in 2016: 10%
- New Incentives is a top charity in 2017: 12.5%
- New Incentives is a top charity in 2018: 15%
Cost-effectiveness predictions
- Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers: 67%
- Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers: 15%
- Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers: 5%
Charity predictions
- New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018: 25%
- New Incentives still operates in 2019: 40%
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "New Incentives — General Support",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The purpose of this exercise is to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
- 70% chance that we provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program
- 50% chance that New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecast:
- 65% chance that No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
- 15% chance that we find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018
- 25% chance that an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021
- 60% chance that the Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018
- 60% chance that GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
- Top charity predictions:
- No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017: 15%.
- No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018: 20%.
- No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019: 25%.
- Cost-effectiveness predictions:
- Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers: 50%.
- Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers: 15%.
- Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers: 15%.
- Implementation predictions:
- Evidence Action is running a No Lean Season program at the end of 2017: 80%.
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Risks of the grant and internal forecasts
This grant could fail to have the effects we hope for in a number of ways:
- The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up. We believe this is reasonably likely (~50% chance).
- The study yields a result that we're not confident in. We think there is a moderate chance (~25%) of this (given the number of potential problems that can arise with any study).
- The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so (for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). We think this scenario is fairly unlikely (~7.5%).
- The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly. We think this is fairly unlikely (~7.5%), especially given Sedlmayr's interest in attempting the intervention.
(We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking, especially grantmaking. The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are.)
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Internal forecasts
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
| Confidence | Prediction | By Time |
|---|
| 60% | GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points | December 2021 |
| 50% | GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively) | December 2021 |
| 75% | Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful | December 2021 |
| 80% | Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes) | January 2024 |
| 35% | Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline) | January 2025 |
",
- "Stars": "★★★☆☆"
- },
- {
- "Title": "UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
- "URL": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
- "Platform": "GiveWell",
- "Binary question?": false,
- "Percentage": "none",
- "Description": "Plans for follow-up
We plan to follow up with the gift recipient roughly every six months to check in on the timeline for receiving results from this study. At this stage, our understanding is that Wave 1 results will be available by mid-2018 and Wave 2 results will be available by mid-2019. We are uncertain when results will be able to be shared publicly, but aim to write publicly about the results as soon as we are able to.
We also plan to follow up with the recipient to share their pre-analysis plan publicly and, when the study is completed, to share data publicly.
Internal forecasts
We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are. For this gift, we are recording the following forecasts:
- 25% chance that the KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x.
- 5% chance that the KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x.
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